Robert (Bob) Kubinec
@rmkubinec.bsky.social
Political scientist University of South Carolina. Interests: business politics/corruption, Middle East, measurement, Bayesian statistics
The Bayesian Hitman: https://a.co/d/e4QmtKo
Website: www.robertkubinec.com
The Bayesian Hitman: https://a.co/d/e4QmtKo
Website: www.robertkubinec.com
Pinned
🧵 👋 I'm a political scientist who wrote a book about the recent collapse of two democracies (Egypt & Tunisia).
Given the anxieties of today, let me present a 🧵 with thoughts & resources for:
WHAT TO DO IF YOUR DEMOCRACY COLLAPSES:
Given the anxieties of today, let me present a 🧵 with thoughts & resources for:
WHAT TO DO IF YOUR DEMOCRACY COLLAPSES:
My #rstats cheat code for today is the binom.confint function in the binom package that will spit out *12* different ways of calculating a CI for a proportion.
Also, this is why you use R for statistics...
(and of course the correct CI method is bayes 😎)
Also, this is why you use R for statistics...
(and of course the correct CI method is bayes 😎)
November 16, 2025 at 2:52 AM
My #rstats cheat code for today is the binom.confint function in the binom package that will spit out *12* different ways of calculating a CI for a proportion.
Also, this is why you use R for statistics...
(and of course the correct CI method is bayes 😎)
Also, this is why you use R for statistics...
(and of course the correct CI method is bayes 😎)
Exhibit A as to why prestige is so antithetical to science
Probably fewer women in economics because they’re just not as smart, right, Larry?
The emails have Summers reporting to Epstein about his attempts to date a Harvard economics student & to hit on her during a seminar she was giving.
November 16, 2025 at 1:58 AM
Exhibit A as to why prestige is so antithetical to science
Like the rest of us, the pope just wants to know what happened in the final episode of Severance
Adam Scott meeting the pope, for anyone interested in that sort of thing
November 16, 2025 at 1:47 AM
Like the rest of us, the pope just wants to know what happened in the final episode of Severance
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
📣 New NBER Working Paper out today 📣
"The Consequences of Faculty Sexual Misconduct"
Sarah Cohodes & Katherine Leu
"The Consequences of Faculty Sexual Misconduct"
Sarah Cohodes & Katherine Leu
November 10, 2025 at 1:49 PM
📣 New NBER Working Paper out today 📣
"The Consequences of Faculty Sexual Misconduct"
Sarah Cohodes & Katherine Leu
"The Consequences of Faculty Sexual Misconduct"
Sarah Cohodes & Katherine Leu
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
Update your syllabus and stay on the frontier - it will increase your students’ wages. Epic work by my colleagues @barbarabiasi.com and @profsongma.bsky.social #linkoftheday
www.barbarabiasi.com/uploads/1/0/...
www.barbarabiasi.com/uploads/1/0/...
November 15, 2025 at 12:44 AM
Update your syllabus and stay on the frontier - it will increase your students’ wages. Epic work by my colleagues @barbarabiasi.com and @profsongma.bsky.social #linkoftheday
www.barbarabiasi.com/uploads/1/0/...
www.barbarabiasi.com/uploads/1/0/...
Economist appointed by Trump to the federal reserve fails basic supply/demand question
Fed Governor Stephen Miran: "Cutting down net migration to 0, potentially even negative because of the deportations that have been occurring, I think is very deflationary."
November 14, 2025 at 11:41 PM
Economist appointed by Trump to the federal reserve fails basic supply/demand question
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
I have not yet seen strong evidence that democracy, albeit flawed, won;t stay the only game in town. The playing field is tilted, but I don't think the cancellation of elections in 2028 is a high-probability event (though we need to be vigilant to make sure elections happen).
November 14, 2025 at 8:22 PM
I have not yet seen strong evidence that democracy, albeit flawed, won;t stay the only game in town. The playing field is tilted, but I don't think the cancellation of elections in 2028 is a high-probability event (though we need to be vigilant to make sure elections happen).
The methodology business cycle
(Ok I'm trademarking that for a future paper 🤣)
(Ok I'm trademarking that for a future paper 🤣)
1. Someone comes up with a cool method.
2. Star scholars publish papers in big journals using cool method.
3. Cool method market for papers gets saturated.
4. Someone writes a paper pointing out a big flaw in cool method.
5. Reviewers reject cool method papers using 4.
Rinse, repeat. Rinse, repeat.
2. Star scholars publish papers in big journals using cool method.
3. Cool method market for papers gets saturated.
4. Someone writes a paper pointing out a big flaw in cool method.
5. Reviewers reject cool method papers using 4.
Rinse, repeat. Rinse, repeat.
November 14, 2025 at 5:23 PM
The methodology business cycle
(Ok I'm trademarking that for a future paper 🤣)
(Ok I'm trademarking that for a future paper 🤣)
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
One thing I learned writing this piece: ~1 in 8 Americans are on SNAP. Way more than I thought (and I grew up lower middle class and we had WIC when I was a kid, so think I had an above-replacement-level prior). “We saved SNAP” is good angle for Dems open.substack.com/pub/gelliott...
One way the shutdown deal might actually help Democrats
A plurality of voters approve of the deal to end the government shutdown. Democrats have an opportunity to claim they saved SNAP & other government programs, which could help repair the party's image
open.substack.com
November 14, 2025 at 1:58 PM
One thing I learned writing this piece: ~1 in 8 Americans are on SNAP. Way more than I thought (and I grew up lower middle class and we had WIC when I was a kid, so think I had an above-replacement-level prior). “We saved SNAP” is good angle for Dems open.substack.com/pub/gelliott...
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
Good statement from the US conference of Catholic Bishops
November 14, 2025 at 2:17 AM
Good statement from the US conference of Catholic Bishops
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
NEW -
Tariffs as Environmental Protection: Evidence from the Global South after the China Garbage Shock - https://cup.org/3WVUjpS
- @rwellhausen.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
Tariffs as Environmental Protection: Evidence from the Global South after the China Garbage Shock - https://cup.org/3WVUjpS
- @rwellhausen.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
November 14, 2025 at 12:50 PM
NEW -
Tariffs as Environmental Protection: Evidence from the Global South after the China Garbage Shock - https://cup.org/3WVUjpS
- @rwellhausen.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
Tariffs as Environmental Protection: Evidence from the Global South after the China Garbage Shock - https://cup.org/3WVUjpS
- @rwellhausen.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
what
“The prohibited activities would include joint research, co-authorship on papers, and advising a foreign graduate student or postdoctoral fellow. The language is retroactive, meaning any interactions during the previous 5 years could make a scientist ineligible for future federal funding.”
U.S. Congress considers sweeping ban on Chinese collaborations
Researchers speak out against proposal that would bar funding for U.S. scientists working with Chinese partners or training Chinese students
www.science.org
November 14, 2025 at 2:42 AM
what
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
25th jan 2011
A crucial turning point that was necessary to change the system
A crucial turning point that was necessary to change the system
For the protests today:
One of the most inspiring songs to emerge from the Arab Spring revolutions was this anthem by an Egyptian singer. The title could be translated as "The Sound of Freedom Is Calling."
youtu.be/Fgw_zfLLvh8?...
One of the most inspiring songs to emerge from the Arab Spring revolutions was this anthem by an Egyptian singer. The title could be translated as "The Sound of Freedom Is Calling."
youtu.be/Fgw_zfLLvh8?...
Sout Al Horeya صوت الحريه Amir Eid - Hany Adel - Hawary On Guitar & Sherif On Keyboards
YouTube video by Amir Eid
youtu.be
November 13, 2025 at 11:29 PM
25th jan 2011
A crucial turning point that was necessary to change the system
A crucial turning point that was necessary to change the system
Statistics is a quantitative discipline *but* inference is always qualitative. Statistics doesn't produce rules for what associations count as "significant" or "causal"; these are standards imposed from the outside, i.e., by humans.
November 13, 2025 at 11:05 PM
Statistics is a quantitative discipline *but* inference is always qualitative. Statistics doesn't produce rules for what associations count as "significant" or "causal"; these are standards imposed from the outside, i.e., by humans.
A good situation for Bayesian inference 🤔
📌There is no damn way Epstein wasn't murdered.
November 13, 2025 at 10:48 PM
A good situation for Bayesian inference 🤔
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
New: Judge in Jim Comey proceeding says part of grand jury proceeding is still missing. There is a gap from about 4:38pm to when the grand jury handed down the indictment later that evening. Judge again demands full transcript.
November 13, 2025 at 5:16 PM
New: Judge in Jim Comey proceeding says part of grand jury proceeding is still missing. There is a gap from about 4:38pm to when the grand jury handed down the indictment later that evening. Judge again demands full transcript.
What a complete meltdown of a political party.
Mafia-style threatening tactics.
Trump Ramps Up Pressure on G.O.P. to Thwart Epstein Vote www.nytimes.com/2025/11/12/u...
Trump Ramps Up Pressure on G.O.P. to Thwart Epstein Vote www.nytimes.com/2025/11/12/u...
Trump Ramps Up Pressure on G.O.P. to Thwart Epstein Vote
www.nytimes.com
November 13, 2025 at 10:37 PM
What a complete meltdown of a political party.
Ok, but fixed vs mobile assets...
ok, nm. just do it anyways.
ok, nm. just do it anyways.
November 13, 2025 at 10:36 PM
Ok, but fixed vs mobile assets...
ok, nm. just do it anyways.
ok, nm. just do it anyways.
We've got a real banger coming out soon on fossil fuel company advertising 👀
When Big Oil companies claim to be partners in climate solutions, remember: they are lying.
As the climate crisis intensifies, Chevron is once again "increasing investments in oil and gas exploration," Reuters reports.
www.reuters.com/markets/comm...
As the climate crisis intensifies, Chevron is once again "increasing investments in oil and gas exploration," Reuters reports.
www.reuters.com/markets/comm...
November 13, 2025 at 10:03 PM
We've got a real banger coming out soon on fossil fuel company advertising 👀
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
TBC I have little doubt that multiple intelligence services viewed him as an “asset” since he knew tons of powerful people, had dirt on some percentage of them, and was himself vulnerable to pressure.
Just a note of caution Epstein was sick, perverted criminal who thrived on building social networks with the powerful. Part of that game is pretending that you’re a lot more influential than you actually are. This is also how you scare people into not going to the media or pressing charges.
Jeffrey Epstein claims he gave Russians insight into Trump
November 12, 2025 at 10:36 PM
TBC I have little doubt that multiple intelligence services viewed him as an “asset” since he knew tons of powerful people, had dirt on some percentage of them, and was himself vulnerable to pressure.
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
Call for Applications
Arab Council for Social Sciences Small Grants Program
theacss.org/sgp-cycle-9-...
Applications open on November 13, 2025
Application deadline on February 12, 2026
#FundSocSci
Arab Council for Social Sciences Small Grants Program
theacss.org/sgp-cycle-9-...
Applications open on November 13, 2025
Application deadline on February 12, 2026
#FundSocSci
SGP Cycle 9 – Call for Applications – The Arab Council for the Social Sciences
theacss.org
November 13, 2025 at 7:34 PM
Call for Applications
Arab Council for Social Sciences Small Grants Program
theacss.org/sgp-cycle-9-...
Applications open on November 13, 2025
Application deadline on February 12, 2026
#FundSocSci
Arab Council for Social Sciences Small Grants Program
theacss.org/sgp-cycle-9-...
Applications open on November 13, 2025
Application deadline on February 12, 2026
#FundSocSci
People are dunking on the AI agents in this story, but isn't this exactly what a real startup is like? 😅
www.wired.com/story/all-my...
www.wired.com/story/all-my...
November 13, 2025 at 7:11 PM
People are dunking on the AI agents in this story, but isn't this exactly what a real startup is like? 😅
www.wired.com/story/all-my...
www.wired.com/story/all-my...
Ok but that's a forecast of the *costs* of AI not the profits thereof... 🫣
The chipmaker is “entering a new era of growth,” chief executive Lisa Su said.
AMD Shares Soar 7% After CEO Predicts $1 Trillion Data Center Market
The chipmaker is “entering a new era of growth,” chief executive Lisa Su said.
www.forbes.com
November 13, 2025 at 5:08 PM
Ok but that's a forecast of the *costs* of AI not the profits thereof... 🫣
BTW, I wrote a novel with a Bayesian statistician as the protagonist.
No, I'm not joking. It's called THE BAYESIAN HITMAN. And you can buy it on Amazon. 👇
Rave reviews have said "it's not bad for a stats novel" and "I only fell asleep twice."
A truly unique gift 😁
www.amazon.com/Bayesian-Hit...
No, I'm not joking. It's called THE BAYESIAN HITMAN. And you can buy it on Amazon. 👇
Rave reviews have said "it's not bad for a stats novel" and "I only fell asleep twice."
A truly unique gift 😁
www.amazon.com/Bayesian-Hit...
The Bayesian Hitman
The Bayesian Hitman [Kubinec, Robert M.] on Amazon.com. *FREE* shipping on qualifying offers. The Bayesian Hitman
www.amazon.com
November 13, 2025 at 4:18 PM
BTW, I wrote a novel with a Bayesian statistician as the protagonist.
No, I'm not joking. It's called THE BAYESIAN HITMAN. And you can buy it on Amazon. 👇
Rave reviews have said "it's not bad for a stats novel" and "I only fell asleep twice."
A truly unique gift 😁
www.amazon.com/Bayesian-Hit...
No, I'm not joking. It's called THE BAYESIAN HITMAN. And you can buy it on Amazon. 👇
Rave reviews have said "it's not bad for a stats novel" and "I only fell asleep twice."
A truly unique gift 😁
www.amazon.com/Bayesian-Hit...