Robert (Bob) Kubinec
@rmkubinec.bsky.social
Political scientist University of South Carolina. Interests: business politics/corruption, Middle East, measurement, Bayesian statistics
The Bayesian Hitman: https://a.co/d/e4QmtKo
Website: www.robertkubinec.com
The Bayesian Hitman: https://a.co/d/e4QmtKo
Website: www.robertkubinec.com
A lot of discussion of the loss in research funding, and I get that's bad, but you know what would accelerate a ton of research and cost very little?
Build an open-source hosted solution for academic publishing. Allow anyone to make their own journal with it. Modern tools for interactive web pubs.
Build an open-source hosted solution for academic publishing. Allow anyone to make their own journal with it. Modern tools for interactive web pubs.
a woman in a red jacket is sitting in a chair and says boom .
Alt: a woman in a red jacket is sitting in a chair and says boom .
media.tenor.com
January 23, 2026 at 2:52 PM
A lot of discussion of the loss in research funding, and I get that's bad, but you know what would accelerate a ton of research and cost very little?
Build an open-source hosted solution for academic publishing. Allow anyone to make their own journal with it. Modern tools for interactive web pubs.
Build an open-source hosted solution for academic publishing. Allow anyone to make their own journal with it. Modern tools for interactive web pubs.
The religious revival the social sciences really need is for more people to do opt-in panels 🫡
There's a lot of buzz about Christian revival among young adults in the UK & US. Perceptions of revival are fueled by results from opt-in online surveys. However, these surveys may be misleading. Surveys from random samples of the population don't show any clear evidence of revival.
My new post:
My new post:
Has there been a Christian revival among young adults in the U.K.? Recent surveys may be misleading
Despite the widely recognized decline of Christianity in the U.K., there have been persistent rumblings of a Christian resurgence.
www.pewresearch.org
January 23, 2026 at 2:46 PM
The religious revival the social sciences really need is for more people to do opt-in panels 🫡
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
There's a lot of buzz about Christian revival among young adults in the UK & US. Perceptions of revival are fueled by results from opt-in online surveys. However, these surveys may be misleading. Surveys from random samples of the population don't show any clear evidence of revival.
My new post:
My new post:
Has there been a Christian revival among young adults in the U.K.? Recent surveys may be misleading
Despite the widely recognized decline of Christianity in the U.K., there have been persistent rumblings of a Christian resurgence.
www.pewresearch.org
January 23, 2026 at 2:37 PM
There's a lot of buzz about Christian revival among young adults in the UK & US. Perceptions of revival are fueled by results from opt-in online surveys. However, these surveys may be misleading. Surveys from random samples of the population don't show any clear evidence of revival.
My new post:
My new post:
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
A small update to ClassKit. You can now form project groups based on student preferences and support idea discussion. Grouping is based on students’ top three stated topic interests and a Jaccard similarity score.
ClassKit | Teaching Tools
jaeyk.github.io
January 23, 2026 at 2:31 PM
A small update to ClassKit. You can now form project groups based on student preferences and support idea discussion. Grouping is based on students’ top three stated topic interests and a Jaccard similarity score.
I know this isn't exactly encouraging to everyone watching a democracy collapse, but this midterm election is going to be *fascinating* for political scientists.
I imagine this how an astrophysicist would feel if the Earth were destroyed by a comet.
I imagine this how an astrophysicist would feel if the Earth were destroyed by a comet.
January 23, 2026 at 2:16 PM
I know this isn't exactly encouraging to everyone watching a democracy collapse, but this midterm election is going to be *fascinating* for political scientists.
I imagine this how an astrophysicist would feel if the Earth were destroyed by a comet.
I imagine this how an astrophysicist would feel if the Earth were destroyed by a comet.
The crazy thing is that no one disputes anything AOC just said. It's only the second bit about "defunding" that's considered radical.
AOC: An agency that is attacking U.S. citizens, kidnapping five-year-olds and using them as bait, and privately circulating the idea that they can violate the rights of Americans by busting down their doors—they deserve to be defunded, and I’ll take any step in that direction.
January 23, 2026 at 12:55 PM
The crazy thing is that no one disputes anything AOC just said. It's only the second bit about "defunding" that's considered radical.
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
Applications are open for the 2026 American Political Economy Summer Academy for ABDs, postdocs, and junior faculty from May 31 to June 4. Travel, meals, and lodging all provided!
www.americanpoliticaleconomy.org/events/summe...
www.americanpoliticaleconomy.org/events/summe...
Summer Academy | Consortium on the American Political Economy
The annual CAPE Summer Academy is designed to introduce the APE framework, facilitate in-depth discussions around several key areas within APE, and create opportunities for participants to share work ...
www.americanpoliticaleconomy.org
January 22, 2026 at 10:25 PM
Applications are open for the 2026 American Political Economy Summer Academy for ABDs, postdocs, and junior faculty from May 31 to June 4. Travel, meals, and lodging all provided!
www.americanpoliticaleconomy.org/events/summe...
www.americanpoliticaleconomy.org/events/summe...
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
From a former DOJ lawyer
January 22, 2026 at 4:37 PM
From a former DOJ lawyer
I finally was able to integrate the ordered beta model into brms proper. It'll be a while before it's in brms (and that depends on Paul Buerkner accepting a pull request), but for now feel free to check it out here:
#rstats
github.com/saudiwin/brm...
#rstats
github.com/saudiwin/brm...
brms/ordbeta_example.R at feature/ordbeta-family · saudiwin/brms
brms R package for Bayesian generalized multivariate non-linear multilevel models using Stan - saudiwin/brms
github.com
January 22, 2026 at 8:48 PM
I finally was able to integrate the ordered beta model into brms proper. It'll be a while before it's in brms (and that depends on Paul Buerkner accepting a pull request), but for now feel free to check it out here:
#rstats
github.com/saudiwin/brm...
#rstats
github.com/saudiwin/brm...
Not when you can just park it at a safe port in Greenland.
Oh wait nm
Oh wait nm
Vance on the economy:
"You don't turn the Titanic around overnight"
"You don't turn the Titanic around overnight"
January 22, 2026 at 6:47 PM
Not when you can just park it at a safe port in Greenland.
Oh wait nm
Oh wait nm
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
4 science-based strategies to make your rest time more rejuvenating -- instead of staring at screens buff.ly/Dg4QVZ6
Why ‘unwinding’ with screens may be making us more stressed – here’s what to try instead
Many people may call it self-care to crash on the couch with your smartphone, but screen-based activities increase the load on your brain instead of resting it.
theconversation.com
January 22, 2026 at 6:22 PM
4 science-based strategies to make your rest time more rejuvenating -- instead of staring at screens buff.ly/Dg4QVZ6
People are reading too much into ranked list questions. People's actual policy ideas are much more complex than a ranked list. At minimum, policies interact (my views on immigration may influence my views on the economy & vice versa).
Survey data is a useful tool but it's not an instruction book.
Survey data is a useful tool but it's not an instruction book.
I will repeat: It is not obvious, based on the data, that campaigning on the economy in Nov would be significantly more effective than campaigning on immigration. Gov. policy is dramatically out of step with the public on immigration/deportations, and executive overreach is a potent motivator
January 22, 2026 at 6:34 PM
People are reading too much into ranked list questions. People's actual policy ideas are much more complex than a ranked list. At minimum, policies interact (my views on immigration may influence my views on the economy & vice versa).
Survey data is a useful tool but it's not an instruction book.
Survey data is a useful tool but it's not an instruction book.
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
Special Counsel Jack Smith in his Opening Remarks:
January 22, 2026 at 3:44 PM
Special Counsel Jack Smith in his Opening Remarks:
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
Jack Smith: "My fear is that we have seen the rule of law function in our country for so long that many of us have come to take it for granted. The rule of law is not self-executing. It depends on our collective commitment to apply it."
January 22, 2026 at 4:39 PM
Jack Smith: "My fear is that we have seen the rule of law function in our country for so long that many of us have come to take it for granted. The rule of law is not self-executing. It depends on our collective commitment to apply it."
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
@gelliottmorris.com is the actual thing Nate Silver pretended to be (& was widely hailed & enriched by easily hoodwinked societal institutions, including far too many universities, as being), before he ripped his mask off & showed us who he really is. This is really great stuff here:
Wow, @gelliottmorris.com made a detailed map of Trump approval *at the sub-county level.*
Of course, there are assumptions that have to be made, but it's quite rigorous. Certainly the best info in the public domain.
👀 southern Texas 👀
Check it out: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/a-very-det...
Of course, there are assumptions that have to be made, but it's quite rigorous. Certainly the best info in the public domain.
👀 southern Texas 👀
Check it out: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/a-very-det...
January 22, 2026 at 4:09 PM
@gelliottmorris.com is the actual thing Nate Silver pretended to be (& was widely hailed & enriched by easily hoodwinked societal institutions, including far too many universities, as being), before he ripped his mask off & showed us who he really is. This is really great stuff here:
It would be fun to merge this info into Zillow and see what happens... 👀
Wow, @gelliottmorris.com made a detailed map of Trump approval *at the sub-county level.*
Of course, there are assumptions that have to be made, but it's quite rigorous. Certainly the best info in the public domain.
👀 southern Texas 👀
Check it out: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/a-very-det...
Of course, there are assumptions that have to be made, but it's quite rigorous. Certainly the best info in the public domain.
👀 southern Texas 👀
Check it out: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/a-very-det...
January 22, 2026 at 4:13 PM
It would be fun to merge this info into Zillow and see what happens... 👀
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
Lowest approvals I can find (<15%, lowest in each city):
8.6 W DC
10.7 NW Seattle
11.8 Center City Philly
12.9 Central East Portland
13 Cambridge
13.6 Park Slope
13.7 Lake View Chicago
14.3 SW Mpls
14.6 Bernal SF
8.6 W DC
10.7 NW Seattle
11.8 Center City Philly
12.9 Central East Portland
13 Cambridge
13.6 Park Slope
13.7 Lake View Chicago
14.3 SW Mpls
14.6 Bernal SF
January 22, 2026 at 3:43 PM
Lowest approvals I can find (<15%, lowest in each city):
8.6 W DC
10.7 NW Seattle
11.8 Center City Philly
12.9 Central East Portland
13 Cambridge
13.6 Park Slope
13.7 Lake View Chicago
14.3 SW Mpls
14.6 Bernal SF
8.6 W DC
10.7 NW Seattle
11.8 Center City Philly
12.9 Central East Portland
13 Cambridge
13.6 Park Slope
13.7 Lake View Chicago
14.3 SW Mpls
14.6 Bernal SF
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
Federal agents have pepper-sprayed, tackled and detained people recording their actions. If you post your recordings of agents, you also risk the feds tracking you and those around you, explains a researcher who studies data governance and digital technologies. buff.ly/XdKwsYK
Filming ICE is legal but exposes you to digital tracking – here’s how to minimize the risk
Federal agents have pepper-sprayed, tackled and detained people recording their actions. If you post your recordings of agents, you also risk the feds tracking you and those around you.
theconversation.com
January 22, 2026 at 3:24 PM
Federal agents have pepper-sprayed, tackled and detained people recording their actions. If you post your recordings of agents, you also risk the feds tracking you and those around you, explains a researcher who studies data governance and digital technologies. buff.ly/XdKwsYK
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
📢 New article
👥 Jacob Nyrup, Carl Henrik Knutsen, Peter Egge Langsæther, & Ina Lyftingsmo Kristiansen
👉 Paths to Power: A New Dataset on the Social Profile of Governments
📗 Open Access in the British Journal of Political Science
🔗 doi.org/10.1017/s000...
👥 Jacob Nyrup, Carl Henrik Knutsen, Peter Egge Langsæther, & Ina Lyftingsmo Kristiansen
👉 Paths to Power: A New Dataset on the Social Profile of Governments
📗 Open Access in the British Journal of Political Science
🔗 doi.org/10.1017/s000...
January 13, 2026 at 12:34 PM
📢 New article
👥 Jacob Nyrup, Carl Henrik Knutsen, Peter Egge Langsæther, & Ina Lyftingsmo Kristiansen
👉 Paths to Power: A New Dataset on the Social Profile of Governments
📗 Open Access in the British Journal of Political Science
🔗 doi.org/10.1017/s000...
👥 Jacob Nyrup, Carl Henrik Knutsen, Peter Egge Langsæther, & Ina Lyftingsmo Kristiansen
👉 Paths to Power: A New Dataset on the Social Profile of Governments
📗 Open Access in the British Journal of Political Science
🔗 doi.org/10.1017/s000...
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
Nasra Ahmed, a 23-year-old US citizen, was arrested and detained by ICE. She was held for TWO DAYS.
ICE agents handcuffed her, called her a racial slur, and she was knocked to the ground so hard she got a concussion.
This cannot continue happening. ICE needs to leave.
ICE agents handcuffed her, called her a racial slur, and she was knocked to the ground so hard she got a concussion.
This cannot continue happening. ICE needs to leave.
January 22, 2026 at 1:42 AM
Nasra Ahmed, a 23-year-old US citizen, was arrested and detained by ICE. She was held for TWO DAYS.
ICE agents handcuffed her, called her a racial slur, and she was knocked to the ground so hard she got a concussion.
This cannot continue happening. ICE needs to leave.
ICE agents handcuffed her, called her a racial slur, and she was knocked to the ground so hard she got a concussion.
This cannot continue happening. ICE needs to leave.
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
This paper in Management Science has been cited more than 6,000 times. Wall Street execs, top govt officials, and even a former U.S. Vice President have all referenced it. It’s fatally flawed, and the scholarly community refuses to do anything about it.
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/01/22/a...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/01/22/a...
This paper in Management Science has been cited more than 6,000 times. Wall Street executives, top government officials, and even a former U.S. Vice President have all referenced it. It’s fatally fl...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
January 22, 2026 at 2:31 PM
This paper in Management Science has been cited more than 6,000 times. Wall Street execs, top govt officials, and even a former U.S. Vice President have all referenced it. It’s fatally flawed, and the scholarly community refuses to do anything about it.
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/01/22/a...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/01/22/a...
Another damning result from the NYT poll:
Only 73% of *Republicans* think the US is better off now than it was a year ago.
The GOP holds the presidency *and* Congress, but 25% of self-identified Republicans are less than impressed.
It's gonna be a heck of a midterm.
Only 73% of *Republicans* think the US is better off now than it was a year ago.
The GOP holds the presidency *and* Congress, but 25% of self-identified Republicans are less than impressed.
It's gonna be a heck of a midterm.
January 22, 2026 at 2:30 PM
Another damning result from the NYT poll:
Only 73% of *Republicans* think the US is better off now than it was a year ago.
The GOP holds the presidency *and* Congress, but 25% of self-identified Republicans are less than impressed.
It's gonna be a heck of a midterm.
Only 73% of *Republicans* think the US is better off now than it was a year ago.
The GOP holds the presidency *and* Congress, but 25% of self-identified Republicans are less than impressed.
It's gonna be a heck of a midterm.
Wow, @gelliottmorris.com made a detailed map of Trump approval *at the sub-county level.*
Of course, there are assumptions that have to be made, but it's quite rigorous. Certainly the best info in the public domain.
👀 southern Texas 👀
Check it out: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/a-very-det...
Of course, there are assumptions that have to be made, but it's quite rigorous. Certainly the best info in the public domain.
👀 southern Texas 👀
Check it out: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/a-very-det...
January 22, 2026 at 2:17 PM
Wow, @gelliottmorris.com made a detailed map of Trump approval *at the sub-county level.*
Of course, there are assumptions that have to be made, but it's quite rigorous. Certainly the best info in the public domain.
👀 southern Texas 👀
Check it out: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/a-very-det...
Of course, there are assumptions that have to be made, but it's quite rigorous. Certainly the best info in the public domain.
👀 southern Texas 👀
Check it out: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/a-very-det...
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
Minnesota: "School officials say the [5-year-old] child was used as bait. They say [ICE] agents made little Liam knock on the door to ask to be let in in order to see if anyone else was home."
January 22, 2026 at 12:05 AM
Minnesota: "School officials say the [5-year-old] child was used as bait. They say [ICE] agents made little Liam knock on the door to ask to be let in in order to see if anyone else was home."
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
They are targeting children because they are trying incite violence. I have talked to many journalists today, and they all made the same observation: Border Patrol and ICE have been rolling around with maximum aggression, lingering for ages as crowds, gather, seemingly trying to cause a riot.
This picture making the rounds on reddit, Columbia Heights. I'm not OK.
January 21, 2026 at 11:39 PM
They are targeting children because they are trying incite violence. I have talked to many journalists today, and they all made the same observation: Border Patrol and ICE have been rolling around with maximum aggression, lingering for ages as crowds, gather, seemingly trying to cause a riot.