Robert (Bob) Kubinec
@rmkubinec.bsky.social
Political scientist University of South Carolina. Interests: business politics/corruption, Middle East, measurement, Bayesian statistics
The Bayesian Hitman: https://a.co/d/e4QmtKo
Website: www.robertkubinec.com
The Bayesian Hitman: https://a.co/d/e4QmtKo
Website: www.robertkubinec.com
Amazing to see the growth of the ordbetareg R package from 2022 to present. It's now regularly in the top 10 percent of downloaded packages from CRAN.
I'll be working on a new package release soon... feedback always welcome!
#rstats
I'll be working on a new package release soon... feedback always welcome!
#rstats
January 3, 2026 at 11:34 PM
Amazing to see the growth of the ordbetareg R package from 2022 to present. It's now regularly in the top 10 percent of downloaded packages from CRAN.
I'll be working on a new package release soon... feedback always welcome!
#rstats
I'll be working on a new package release soon... feedback always welcome!
#rstats
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
Mark Warner with a great statement on Venezuela and Trump's violation of the rule of law.
January 3, 2026 at 7:13 PM
Mark Warner with a great statement on Venezuela and Trump's violation of the rule of law.
What regime change?
It seems like the targeted take-out of Maduro was the compromise Rubio reached with the Trump admin. I'm sure Rubio would like a full invasion, but this was the best he could get.
Rubio probably told Trump he could run Venezuela like a king afterwards because why not?
It seems like the targeted take-out of Maduro was the compromise Rubio reached with the Trump admin. I'm sure Rubio would like a full invasion, but this was the best he could get.
Rubio probably told Trump he could run Venezuela like a king afterwards because why not?
January 3, 2026 at 7:43 PM
What regime change?
It seems like the targeted take-out of Maduro was the compromise Rubio reached with the Trump admin. I'm sure Rubio would like a full invasion, but this was the best he could get.
Rubio probably told Trump he could run Venezuela like a king afterwards because why not?
It seems like the targeted take-out of Maduro was the compromise Rubio reached with the Trump admin. I'm sure Rubio would like a full invasion, but this was the best he could get.
Rubio probably told Trump he could run Venezuela like a king afterwards because why not?
I haven't yet seen any evidence that the US has troops on the ground in Venezuela, and Rubio called grabbing Maduro a "police action" 🙄.
Perhaps Trump thinks they can "administer" Venezuela by making threats from aircraft carriers off the coast.
That should work well...
Perhaps Trump thinks they can "administer" Venezuela by making threats from aircraft carriers off the coast.
That should work well...
Moulton: "When we had briefings on Venezuela, we asked, 'Are you going to invade the country?' We were told no. 'Do you plan to put troops on the ground?' We were told no. 'Do you intend regime change in VZ?' We were told no. So in a sense, we have been briefed, we've just been completely lied to"
January 3, 2026 at 7:40 PM
I haven't yet seen any evidence that the US has troops on the ground in Venezuela, and Rubio called grabbing Maduro a "police action" 🙄.
Perhaps Trump thinks they can "administer" Venezuela by making threats from aircraft carriers off the coast.
That should work well...
Perhaps Trump thinks they can "administer" Venezuela by making threats from aircraft carriers off the coast.
That should work well...
We need a Darth Rubio account as clearly he thinks he is the master strategist. @darthputinkgb.bsky.social
January 3, 2026 at 6:37 PM
We need a Darth Rubio account as clearly he thinks he is the master strategist. @darthputinkgb.bsky.social
My hunch is that Rubio sold this to Trump as a way to end refugees fleeing from Venezuela to the US.
We're more likely to see the opposite outcome--you broke it, you fix it.
We're more likely to see the opposite outcome--you broke it, you fix it.
January 3, 2026 at 5:37 PM
My hunch is that Rubio sold this to Trump as a way to end refugees fleeing from Venezuela to the US.
We're more likely to see the opposite outcome--you broke it, you fix it.
We're more likely to see the opposite outcome--you broke it, you fix it.
But the weird part about the last point is that US companies have plenty of oil reserves. It's the price of oil that's too low. The "economically rational" move would be to take Venezuelan reserves offline.
Or... ?
Or... ?
January 3, 2026 at 3:30 PM
But the weird part about the last point is that US companies have plenty of oil reserves. It's the price of oil that's too low. The "economically rational" move would be to take Venezuelan reserves offline.
Or... ?
Or... ?
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
Anyway, it's hard to see how this makes the US more secure. And I can't help looking at the pictures of this massive naval deployment and thinking about how much it cost relative to giving Ukraine what it needs to defend itself. 10/10
January 3, 2026 at 2:37 PM
Anyway, it's hard to see how this makes the US more secure. And I can't help looking at the pictures of this massive naval deployment and thinking about how much it cost relative to giving Ukraine what it needs to defend itself. 10/10
This is not regime change. Not yet at any rate. This was an act of war on Venezuela and its government--but the regime is still very much in power.
Maduro was a brutal repressive dictator who destroyed Venezuela. Trump did not have congressional or UN approval to engage in unilateral regime change. Trump's actions were illegal. All of those things can be true at the same time. Don't let them make this about Maduro.
January 3, 2026 at 3:09 PM
This is not regime change. Not yet at any rate. This was an act of war on Venezuela and its government--but the regime is still very much in power.
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
The combination of originality, ambition, and lack of scruple can take you far in social science.
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/01/03/t...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/01/03/t...
The combination of originality, ambition, and lack of scruple can take you far in social science. | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
January 3, 2026 at 3:03 PM
The combination of originality, ambition, and lack of scruple can take you far in social science.
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/01/03/t...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/01/03/t...
This seems like the US copying Israeli policy--take out the leaders and everything will be fine.
That policy rarely worked for Israel, and in any case, Hamas is not Venezuela (in case anyone was confused about that).
That policy rarely worked for Israel, and in any case, Hamas is not Venezuela (in case anyone was confused about that).
I hope things work out well for the Venezuelan people.
I suspect that the range of likely outcomes run from "further entrenching the regime without a ton of political violence" or "a regime transition with a lot of political violence." But I'd defer to @mpaarlberg.bsky.social or other experts.
I suspect that the range of likely outcomes run from "further entrenching the regime without a ton of political violence" or "a regime transition with a lot of political violence." But I'd defer to @mpaarlberg.bsky.social or other experts.
January 3, 2026 at 1:38 PM
This seems like the US copying Israeli policy--take out the leaders and everything will be fine.
That policy rarely worked for Israel, and in any case, Hamas is not Venezuela (in case anyone was confused about that).
That policy rarely worked for Israel, and in any case, Hamas is not Venezuela (in case anyone was confused about that).
I don't think this has as much to do with spheres of influence as much as Rubio's influence in a weak and disorganized administration.
yes, humiliating for russia, but also consistent with the spheres of influence approach that putin wants (him, xi, and trump can do what they want in their respective zones)
January 3, 2026 at 1:35 PM
I don't think this has as much to do with spheres of influence as much as Rubio's influence in a weak and disorganized administration.
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
Marco Rubio is reportedly saying Maduro will stand trial in US courts.
Which means it’s now the US administration’s position that US courts can hold foreign presidents, but not the US president, accountable for crimes.
Which means it’s now the US administration’s position that US courts can hold foreign presidents, but not the US president, accountable for crimes.
January 3, 2026 at 10:52 AM
Marco Rubio is reportedly saying Maduro will stand trial in US courts.
Which means it’s now the US administration’s position that US courts can hold foreign presidents, but not the US president, accountable for crimes.
Which means it’s now the US administration’s position that US courts can hold foreign presidents, but not the US president, accountable for crimes.
It would be so nice if Americans knew this information.
Sometimes we get all into "messaging" but people also like actual information.
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/02/u...
Sometimes we get all into "messaging" but people also like actual information.
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/02/u...
Trump Super PAC Raised More Than $100 Million in Recent Months
www.nytimes.com
January 3, 2026 at 12:30 AM
It would be so nice if Americans knew this information.
Sometimes we get all into "messaging" but people also like actual information.
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/02/u...
Sometimes we get all into "messaging" but people also like actual information.
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/02/u...
Probably the hardest thing for people doing probability and statistics is when their expectations don't match reality
January 2, 2026 at 10:27 PM
Probably the hardest thing for people doing probability and statistics is when their expectations don't match reality
An amazing part of 2025 was the growth of ordered beta regression. The paper was cited 94 times in 2025 across many fields.
Super grateful to everyone who has used it and cited it. Thank you!
and don't forget your ordered beta merch 😆
#rstats
rmk-designs.printify.me
Super grateful to everyone who has used it and cited it. Thank you!
and don't forget your ordered beta merch 😆
#rstats
rmk-designs.printify.me
January 2, 2026 at 9:19 PM
An amazing part of 2025 was the growth of ordered beta regression. The paper was cited 94 times in 2025 across many fields.
Super grateful to everyone who has used it and cited it. Thank you!
and don't forget your ordered beta merch 😆
#rstats
rmk-designs.printify.me
Super grateful to everyone who has used it and cited it. Thank you!
and don't forget your ordered beta merch 😆
#rstats
rmk-designs.printify.me
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
Oh c'mon, most people have never been able to navigate with a map and a compass
It's 2026.
Things many American school kids probably don't know how to do:
* Dial a rotary telephone
* Tell time from an analog clock
* Read or write cursive
* Decipher Roman numerals
* Navigate with a paper map or use a compass
* Balance a checkbook
(Please add more below)
Things many American school kids probably don't know how to do:
* Dial a rotary telephone
* Tell time from an analog clock
* Read or write cursive
* Decipher Roman numerals
* Navigate with a paper map or use a compass
* Balance a checkbook
(Please add more below)
January 2, 2026 at 5:10 PM
Oh c'mon, most people have never been able to navigate with a map and a compass
Thankfully, even though I am very into politics, I am completely normal.
You can trust me on that. I will never be anything other than normal.
You can trust me on that. I will never be anything other than normal.
So many people in politics - in the US and the UK - have been in politics or adjacent their whole lives, and are not like most people. Not just the politicians, but also (even more so!) their staff and advisors.
(I know this more about the US than the UK - daniellaurison.com/research/pol...)
(I know this more about the US than the UK - daniellaurison.com/research/pol...)
January 2, 2026 at 4:52 PM
Thankfully, even though I am very into politics, I am completely normal.
You can trust me on that. I will never be anything other than normal.
You can trust me on that. I will never be anything other than normal.
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
One thing I wrote about here is how technology has made buses *way* more convenient while techno-futurists were obsessed with flying taxis and self-driving cars.
January 2, 2026 at 2:17 PM
One thing I wrote about here is how technology has made buses *way* more convenient while techno-futurists were obsessed with flying taxis and self-driving cars.
The H1B pseudo-ban isn't getting enough coverage.
AI and healthcare powered US economic growth in 2025. Universities are one of our biggest exports. These sectors will lose more than *100,000* skilled workers if they can't pay a prohibitive fee.
You can't run an advanced economy without workers.
AI and healthcare powered US economic growth in 2025. Universities are one of our biggest exports. These sectors will lose more than *100,000* skilled workers if they can't pay a prohibitive fee.
You can't run an advanced economy without workers.
January 2, 2026 at 3:04 PM
The H1B pseudo-ban isn't getting enough coverage.
AI and healthcare powered US economic growth in 2025. Universities are one of our biggest exports. These sectors will lose more than *100,000* skilled workers if they can't pay a prohibitive fee.
You can't run an advanced economy without workers.
AI and healthcare powered US economic growth in 2025. Universities are one of our biggest exports. These sectors will lose more than *100,000* skilled workers if they can't pay a prohibitive fee.
You can't run an advanced economy without workers.
This New Year you could resolve to never use two-way fixed effects again 🫡
January 1, 2026 at 4:20 PM
This New Year you could resolve to never use two-way fixed effects again 🫡
Time for your New Year cleanse:
Open Chrome and delete all open tabs
Open Chrome and delete all open tabs
January 1, 2026 at 2:49 PM
Time for your New Year cleanse:
Open Chrome and delete all open tabs
Open Chrome and delete all open tabs