Robert (Bob) Kubinec
@rmkubinec.bsky.social
Political scientist University of South Carolina. Interests: business politics/corruption, Middle East, measurement, Bayesian statistics
The Bayesian Hitman: https://a.co/d/e4QmtKo
Website: www.robertkubinec.com
The Bayesian Hitman: https://a.co/d/e4QmtKo
Website: www.robertkubinec.com
Pinned
🧵 👋 I'm a political scientist who wrote a book about the recent collapse of two democracies (Egypt & Tunisia).
Given the anxieties of today, let me present a 🧵 with thoughts & resources for:
WHAT TO DO IF YOUR DEMOCRACY COLLAPSES:
Given the anxieties of today, let me present a 🧵 with thoughts & resources for:
WHAT TO DO IF YOUR DEMOCRACY COLLAPSES:
My goodness yes, let's please stop acting like factory jobs are the only good jobs
In Opinion | The first step toward building a good jobs agenda requires officials thinking about economic development “to get over their manufacturing fetishism,” Dani Rodrik writes.
Opinion | What Even Is a ‘Good’ Job?
It starts with abandoning the fetish over manufacturing.
nyti.ms
November 11, 2025 at 1:36 AM
My goodness yes, let's please stop acting like factory jobs are the only good jobs
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
The U.S. military is being used inside the United States. There's a lot we don't know about how, why, and under what authorities.
Today, Lawfare is launching a new project–which includes a tracker and a map–to follow where and how the military is being domestically deployed.
Today, Lawfare is launching a new project–which includes a tracker and a map–to follow where and how the military is being domestically deployed.
November 10, 2025 at 11:14 PM
The U.S. military is being used inside the United States. There's a lot we don't know about how, why, and under what authorities.
Today, Lawfare is launching a new project–which includes a tracker and a map–to follow where and how the military is being domestically deployed.
Today, Lawfare is launching a new project–which includes a tracker and a map–to follow where and how the military is being domestically deployed.
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
America's political elite has decided that climate change is no longer that important or worth talking about, but rest assured, it's still happening, it's extremely bad, and yes, it is going to affect you here in America.
What Climate Change Will Do to America by Mid-Century
Many places may become uninhabitable. Many people may be on their own.
www.theatlantic.com
November 10, 2025 at 8:55 PM
America's political elite has decided that climate change is no longer that important or worth talking about, but rest assured, it's still happening, it's extremely bad, and yes, it is going to affect you here in America.
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
The claim originated on a satirical news site called the “Dunning-Kruger Times.”
Trump Posts Claim About Obamacare ‘Royalties’ That Originated On Satirical News Site
The claim originated on a satirical news site called the “Dunning-Kruger Times.”
www.forbes.com
November 9, 2025 at 5:20 PM
The claim originated on a satirical news site called the “Dunning-Kruger Times.”
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
The current housing market is the ultimate form of birth control.
November 10, 2025 at 7:58 PM
The current housing market is the ultimate form of birth control.
a broken clock is always right once a day 🙄
AtlasIntel, the self-proclaimed “best pollster in America,” missed last week’s elections by an average of 9 points across races and by 14 points in New Jersey.
Back in June, I wrote about how their accuracy in 2024 distracted from bigger methods issues: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-best-p...
Back in June, I wrote about how their accuracy in 2024 distracted from bigger methods issues: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-best-p...
What makes the “best pollsters” of 2024 so accurate?
Primarily it’s a mix of experimentation and biased estimates that get lucky
www.gelliottmorris.com
November 10, 2025 at 1:36 PM
a broken clock is always right once a day 🙄
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
Just published in @bjpols.bsky.social: @sergipardos.bsky.social and I show that inter-regional moves in pursuit of employment security reduce individual worries about immigration—a mobility pattern that, in the aggregate, reinforces spatial polarization in anti-immigration sentiment. cup.org/3XiB6yD
November 10, 2025 at 1:20 PM
Just published in @bjpols.bsky.social: @sergipardos.bsky.social and I show that inter-regional moves in pursuit of employment security reduce individual worries about immigration—a mobility pattern that, in the aggregate, reinforces spatial polarization in anti-immigration sentiment. cup.org/3XiB6yD
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
I'd like to see a state pass a bill like this somewhere where the focus would be water use by data centers. Slap a per gallon fee on their water usage. Slap that fee on everyone using a lot of water. Put it into a sovereign wealth fund like Alaska and issue an annual universal dividend like Alaska.
Poland Spring might get soaked with $100 million state tax
Lawmakers eye an extraction fee of 12 cents per gallon for Maine groundwater.
www.sunjournal.com
November 7, 2025 at 6:28 PM
I'd like to see a state pass a bill like this somewhere where the focus would be water use by data centers. Slap a per gallon fee on their water usage. Slap that fee on everyone using a lot of water. Put it into a sovereign wealth fund like Alaska and issue an annual universal dividend like Alaska.
The example every social scientist needs on hand to illustrate cheap talk 😂
New York millionaires: threatening to flee the city since 2009
November 8, 2025 at 3:03 AM
The example every social scientist needs on hand to illustrate cheap talk 😂
The recent movement in Trump's approval may not look like a big deal, but you have to remember that Trump's base stands to gain a lot from his regime. For 1% of his base to say, "no, we don't like what he's doing," that means those benefits don't matter anymore.
And frankly, that's a big deal.
And frankly, that's a big deal.
November 7, 2025 at 2:56 PM
The recent movement in Trump's approval may not look like a big deal, but you have to remember that Trump's base stands to gain a lot from his regime. For 1% of his base to say, "no, we don't like what he's doing," that means those benefits don't matter anymore.
And frankly, that's a big deal.
And frankly, that's a big deal.
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
The US is the world's largest oil and gas producer. Yet, "China is now making more money from exporting green technology than America makes from exporting fossil fuels."
China’s clean-energy revolution will reshape markets and politics
The world’s biggest manufacturer now has an interest in the world decarbonising
www.economist.com
November 7, 2025 at 11:05 AM
The US is the world's largest oil and gas producer. Yet, "China is now making more money from exporting green technology than America makes from exporting fossil fuels."
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
The most corrupt administration in American history.
November 7, 2025 at 12:46 AM
The most corrupt administration in American history.
We've all been there
November 7, 2025 at 12:57 AM
We've all been there
The question is, will this finally lead the GOP to take up sandwich control as a serious policy endeavor? For far too long, Americans have threatened each other with sandwiches--and sometimes actually attacked each other--virtually without consequence.
BREAKING: JUSTICE DEPARTMENT EATS A LOSS IN 'SANDWICH GUY' CASE AS JURORS FIND DEFENDANT NOT GUILTY www.nbcnews.com/politics/jus...
Jury acquits D.C. 'sandwich guy' charged with chucking a sub at a federal agent
Sean Dunn faced single misdemeanor offense after federal grand jurors refused to indict him on the felony charge sought by prosecutors.
www.nbcnews.com
November 6, 2025 at 9:23 PM
The question is, will this finally lead the GOP to take up sandwich control as a serious policy endeavor? For far too long, Americans have threatened each other with sandwiches--and sometimes actually attacked each other--virtually without consequence.
I really tried hard to think of a new pun about sandwich guy but it seems like they are all taken 🤷.
Maybe I'll do better on the next Kafka-esque prosecution...
Maybe I'll do better on the next Kafka-esque prosecution...
November 6, 2025 at 7:56 PM
I really tried hard to think of a new pun about sandwich guy but it seems like they are all taken 🤷.
Maybe I'll do better on the next Kafka-esque prosecution...
Maybe I'll do better on the next Kafka-esque prosecution...
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
Researchers: Has your paper been evaluated by The Unjournal (see unjournal.pubpub.org)?
We want your feedback on the experience, the quality of the evaluations, and how this impacted your work.
https://bit.ly/4qKtYIZ
1/10 get a $100 prize.
We want your feedback on the experience, the quality of the evaluations, and how this impacted your work.
https://bit.ly/4qKtYIZ
1/10 get a $100 prize.
Author Survey Form
Please note that all questions are optional. By completing this form, you will enter a draw with a chance of winning $100. Every 1 out of 10 respondents will receive the compensation.
bit.ly
November 6, 2025 at 4:36 PM
Researchers: Has your paper been evaluated by The Unjournal (see unjournal.pubpub.org)?
We want your feedback on the experience, the quality of the evaluations, and how this impacted your work.
https://bit.ly/4qKtYIZ
1/10 get a $100 prize.
We want your feedback on the experience, the quality of the evaluations, and how this impacted your work.
https://bit.ly/4qKtYIZ
1/10 get a $100 prize.
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
“.. in a group Signal chat, .. he wrote in part: ‘I fired 5 rounds and she had 7 holes. Put that in your book boys.’”
@reuters.com #Chicago
www.reuters.com/world/us/bor...
@reuters.com #Chicago
www.reuters.com/world/us/bor...
November 6, 2025 at 2:24 PM
“.. in a group Signal chat, .. he wrote in part: ‘I fired 5 rounds and she had 7 holes. Put that in your book boys.’”
@reuters.com #Chicago
www.reuters.com/world/us/bor...
@reuters.com #Chicago
www.reuters.com/world/us/bor...
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
"The Bible will not sit alongside Mein Kampf. The cross will not yield to the swastika. We must ask right now: Jesus or Hitler? We cannot have both."
Great piece. Please read and send this to your maga relatives who think they're still following Christianity.
Great piece. Please read and send this to your maga relatives who think they're still following Christianity.
The Church Better Start Taking Nazification Seriously - Christianity Today
Tucker Carlson hosted neo-Nazi Nick Fuentes on his podcast. The stakes are high for American Christians.
www.christianitytoday.com
November 6, 2025 at 5:00 PM
"The Bible will not sit alongside Mein Kampf. The cross will not yield to the swastika. We must ask right now: Jesus or Hitler? We cannot have both."
Great piece. Please read and send this to your maga relatives who think they're still following Christianity.
Great piece. Please read and send this to your maga relatives who think they're still following Christianity.
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
🧬Check out this recent article, “Extraversion Probably Does Not Cause Political Participation. Evidence from Two Genetically Informed Designs,” published in @ispp-pops.bsky.social by Rafael Ahlskog👇
doi.org/10.1111/pops... #polisky
doi.org/10.1111/pops... #polisky
Extraversion Probably Does Not Cause Political Participation. Evidence from Two Genetically Informed Designs
A substantial literature in political psychology has emphasized the importance of personality traits for understanding differences in political participation. One such trait is extraversion. However,...
doi.org
November 6, 2025 at 3:44 PM
🧬Check out this recent article, “Extraversion Probably Does Not Cause Political Participation. Evidence from Two Genetically Informed Designs,” published in @ispp-pops.bsky.social by Rafael Ahlskog👇
doi.org/10.1111/pops... #polisky
doi.org/10.1111/pops... #polisky
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
The thing about being a woman and navigating the world, is that you are never safe from being sexually harassed by strangers even if you are a freaking head of state.
www.bbc.com/news/article...
www.bbc.com/news/article...
Mexico president to seek charges after being groped on street
Claudia Sheinbaum says she is pressing charges because "a line must be drawn" against the harassment of Mexican women.
www.bbc.com
November 6, 2025 at 12:30 PM
The thing about being a woman and navigating the world, is that you are never safe from being sexually harassed by strangers even if you are a freaking head of state.
www.bbc.com/news/article...
www.bbc.com/news/article...
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
Such a great paper!
Francis, David C., and @rmkubinec.bsky.social. 2025. ‘Beyond Political Connections: A Measurement Model Approach to Estimating Firm-Level Political Influence in 41 Countries’. @psrm.bsky.social
doi.org/10.1017/psrm...
Francis, David C., and @rmkubinec.bsky.social. 2025. ‘Beyond Political Connections: A Measurement Model Approach to Estimating Firm-Level Political Influence in 41 Countries’. @psrm.bsky.social
doi.org/10.1017/psrm...
November 6, 2025 at 11:56 AM
Such a great paper!
Francis, David C., and @rmkubinec.bsky.social. 2025. ‘Beyond Political Connections: A Measurement Model Approach to Estimating Firm-Level Political Influence in 41 Countries’. @psrm.bsky.social
doi.org/10.1017/psrm...
Francis, David C., and @rmkubinec.bsky.social. 2025. ‘Beyond Political Connections: A Measurement Model Approach to Estimating Firm-Level Political Influence in 41 Countries’. @psrm.bsky.social
doi.org/10.1017/psrm...
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
I’ll keep pushing this line of analysis because I’m increasingly convinced the clearest path out of this mess is for Dems to adopt a relentless anti-corruption, anti-inequality, anti-oligarchy, pro-democracy platform. The Dem leadership hasn’t realized it yet, but they’re now a reform party.
November 6, 2025 at 12:06 AM
I’ll keep pushing this line of analysis because I’m increasingly convinced the clearest path out of this mess is for Dems to adopt a relentless anti-corruption, anti-inequality, anti-oligarchy, pro-democracy platform. The Dem leadership hasn’t realized it yet, but they’re now a reform party.
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
By this time next week, the estimated deaths due to the illegal destruction of USAID and the shuttering of its aid efforts will breach 400,000.
More than 260,000 will be children.
Source: www.bu.edu/sph/news/art...
More than 260,000 will be children.
Source: www.bu.edu/sph/news/art...
Tracking Anticipated Deaths from USAID Funding Cuts
Brooke Nichols has launched online tracking tools that capture estimated increases in mortality and disease spread for HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and other diseases as a result of the near-total...
www.bu.edu
November 5, 2025 at 10:28 PM
By this time next week, the estimated deaths due to the illegal destruction of USAID and the shuttering of its aid efforts will breach 400,000.
More than 260,000 will be children.
Source: www.bu.edu/sph/news/art...
More than 260,000 will be children.
Source: www.bu.edu/sph/news/art...
Reposted by Robert (Bob) Kubinec
Still thinking about Zohran’s full-throated defense of immigration and how long i’ve waited for it. No bullshit about border security or “legal” immigrants but just unabashed support for immigrants. How many people feel so much more seen today? I know I do. 1/
November 5, 2025 at 1:38 PM
Still thinking about Zohran’s full-throated defense of immigration and how long i’ve waited for it. No bullshit about border security or “legal” immigrants but just unabashed support for immigrants. How many people feel so much more seen today? I know I do. 1/