herman mark schwartz
@thunen.bsky.social
periodic posting on political economy issues, mostly charts, some shirts, weekly kittens. Sic semper tyrannis.
Invest now, in our private offering and benefit from the bump when we go IPO!
"And then we said: ‘Let’s just plan for catastrophic success’.”
(J. Kushner from a podium in Davos)
We truly live in hellish times.
www.ft.com/content/b6ad...
(J. Kushner from a podium in Davos)
We truly live in hellish times.
www.ft.com/content/b6ad...
January 22, 2026 at 11:59 PM
Invest now, in our private offering and benefit from the bump when we go IPO!
I have this as a macro now, it’s so common:
Totalitarianism in power invariably replaces all first-rate talents, regardless of their sympathies, with those crackpots and fools whose lack of intelligence and creativity is still the best guarantee of their loyalty.
Hannah Arendt
Totalitarianism in power invariably replaces all first-rate talents, regardless of their sympathies, with those crackpots and fools whose lack of intelligence and creativity is still the best guarantee of their loyalty.
Hannah Arendt
The director of the FBI: "I don't read."
His staff (paraphrased): "he doesn’t like meetings in office settings. What he wants is social events."
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
His staff (paraphrased): "he doesn’t like meetings in office settings. What he wants is social events."
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
January 22, 2026 at 11:55 PM
I have this as a macro now, it’s so common:
Totalitarianism in power invariably replaces all first-rate talents, regardless of their sympathies, with those crackpots and fools whose lack of intelligence and creativity is still the best guarantee of their loyalty.
Hannah Arendt
Totalitarianism in power invariably replaces all first-rate talents, regardless of their sympathies, with those crackpots and fools whose lack of intelligence and creativity is still the best guarantee of their loyalty.
Hannah Arendt
#theywantyoudead 105
2242 measles cases in 2025 per CDC (an underestimate)
171 cases so far in 2026 (= >2000 annualized) - CDC
646 cases in S. Carolina (may include some 2025) - SC Dept of Public Health
2242 measles cases in 2025 per CDC (an underestimate)
171 cases so far in 2026 (= >2000 annualized) - CDC
646 cases in S. Carolina (may include some 2025) - SC Dept of Public Health
RFK Jr. appointee Kirk Milhoan has just clearly stated, out loud, that he wants to experiment on the people of the United States by seeing what happens as vaccination coverage plummets and infectious diseases spread.
January 22, 2026 at 11:34 PM
#theywantyoudead 105
2242 measles cases in 2025 per CDC (an underestimate)
171 cases so far in 2026 (= >2000 annualized) - CDC
646 cases in S. Carolina (may include some 2025) - SC Dept of Public Health
2242 measles cases in 2025 per CDC (an underestimate)
171 cases so far in 2026 (= >2000 annualized) - CDC
646 cases in S. Carolina (may include some 2025) - SC Dept of Public Health
Reposted by herman mark schwartz
You cant buy a house because our president is really mad he didn’t get a Nobel peace prize and so he is threatening Greenland.
January 21, 2026 at 12:59 PM
You cant buy a house because our president is really mad he didn’t get a Nobel peace prize and so he is threatening Greenland.
Reposted by herman mark schwartz
If we can defund the dept of education and cancer research and dept of ‘get rid of fucking carp from Great Lakes,’ we can defund ICE and the DHS.
January 22, 2026 at 2:37 AM
If we can defund the dept of education and cancer research and dept of ‘get rid of fucking carp from Great Lakes,’ we can defund ICE and the DHS.
Reposted by herman mark schwartz
Whistleblowers say multiple DHS personnel faced retaliation for balking at DHS's unconstitutional new policy, and one instructor resigned rather than teach agents to comply with it. www.documentcloud.org/documents/26...
January 21, 2026 at 11:58 PM
Whistleblowers say multiple DHS personnel faced retaliation for balking at DHS's unconstitutional new policy, and one instructor resigned rather than teach agents to comply with it. www.documentcloud.org/documents/26...
Reposted by herman mark schwartz
We are building and financing a corrupt detention/industrial complex. It’s human trafficking, and it has to end.
January 21, 2026 at 9:45 PM
We are building and financing a corrupt detention/industrial complex. It’s human trafficking, and it has to end.
Reposted by herman mark schwartz
Minneapolis, today.
Note how three agents holding the civilian down.
Why spray?
www.startribune.com/ice-raids-mi...
Note how three agents holding the civilian down.
Why spray?
www.startribune.com/ice-raids-mi...
January 21, 2026 at 9:23 PM
Minneapolis, today.
Note how three agents holding the civilian down.
Why spray?
www.startribune.com/ice-raids-mi...
Note how three agents holding the civilian down.
Why spray?
www.startribune.com/ice-raids-mi...
Reposted by herman mark schwartz
🚨HOLY CRAP. An ICE whistleblower just revealed a secret memo authorizing ICE officers to break into homes without a judicial warrant, which DHS's own legal training materials say is unconstitutional!
ICE then hid the memo from the public, passing it along by word of mouth and private conversation.
ICE then hid the memo from the public, passing it along by word of mouth and private conversation.
January 21, 2026 at 10:00 PM
🚨HOLY CRAP. An ICE whistleblower just revealed a secret memo authorizing ICE officers to break into homes without a judicial warrant, which DHS's own legal training materials say is unconstitutional!
ICE then hid the memo from the public, passing it along by word of mouth and private conversation.
ICE then hid the memo from the public, passing it along by word of mouth and private conversation.
Reposted by herman mark schwartz
The Democratic approach to building back power is:
1. Avoid contentious issues;
2. Pivot all discourse to unobjectionable appeals like costs;
3. Leave moral opposition to citizens of conscience, who have lost all trust in the party, but hope they vote Democrat anyhow.
Wrong top to bottom.
1. Avoid contentious issues;
2. Pivot all discourse to unobjectionable appeals like costs;
3. Leave moral opposition to citizens of conscience, who have lost all trust in the party, but hope they vote Democrat anyhow.
Wrong top to bottom.
The Beatings Will Continue Until Morale Improves
On expecting a different result.
www.offmessage.net
January 21, 2026 at 5:13 PM
The Democratic approach to building back power is:
1. Avoid contentious issues;
2. Pivot all discourse to unobjectionable appeals like costs;
3. Leave moral opposition to citizens of conscience, who have lost all trust in the party, but hope they vote Democrat anyhow.
Wrong top to bottom.
1. Avoid contentious issues;
2. Pivot all discourse to unobjectionable appeals like costs;
3. Leave moral opposition to citizens of conscience, who have lost all trust in the party, but hope they vote Democrat anyhow.
Wrong top to bottom.
Excellent from cornel ban on US decline and EU vulnerability (but very minor criticism, overstating the decline in
substack.com/inbox/post/1...
substack.com/inbox/post/1...
The American Toll Booth and the European Industrial Complex
Europe's Problem Isn’t Just Trump. It’s What America Became.
substack.com
January 21, 2026 at 6:11 PM
Excellent from cornel ban on US decline and EU vulnerability (but very minor criticism, overstating the decline in
substack.com/inbox/post/1...
substack.com/inbox/post/1...
The US did occupy Iceland in July 1941 (and built their first electric power plant and the huge Keflavik airfield) but they took over from the UK (who had landed after DEU occupied DK in 1940) and WW2 had already started!
Nothing like today’s situation except Icelanders were not pleased.
Nothing like today’s situation except Icelanders were not pleased.
Trump on NATO: "Until the last few days when I told them about Iceland, they loved me. They called me daddy."
(He means Greenland.)
(He means Greenland.)
January 21, 2026 at 5:17 PM
The US did occupy Iceland in July 1941 (and built their first electric power plant and the huge Keflavik airfield) but they took over from the UK (who had landed after DEU occupied DK in 1940) and WW2 had already started!
Nothing like today’s situation except Icelanders were not pleased.
Nothing like today’s situation except Icelanders were not pleased.
Cointelpro 2.0
As @kenwhite.bsky.social says, if they are offering to find weapons or explosives, they are FBI
As @kenwhite.bsky.social says, if they are offering to find weapons or explosives, they are FBI
Every day some story breaks me some. Today it’s the guy who approached parents at a school patrol, told them he was with Indivisible, and asked about how the patrol system works. The parents gave vague answers, followed him back to his car — and of course it was ICE.
January 21, 2026 at 5:04 PM
Cointelpro 2.0
As @kenwhite.bsky.social says, if they are offering to find weapons or explosives, they are FBI
As @kenwhite.bsky.social says, if they are offering to find weapons or explosives, they are FBI
Reposted by herman mark schwartz
Watch that. And then tell me how we replace Schumer with her
January 21, 2026 at 1:24 AM
Watch that. And then tell me how we replace Schumer with her
some 2023 # s for the de-dollarization debate re selling off USD securities. equity share probably up to 50% now given market ⬆️ and $ ⬇️. the "60%" you sometimes hear is not accurate.
@buddyyakov.bsky.social
@benbraun.bsky.social
@erinkaylockwood.bsky.social
@drscottjames.bsky.social
@buddyyakov.bsky.social
@benbraun.bsky.social
@erinkaylockwood.bsky.social
@drscottjames.bsky.social
January 21, 2026 at 12:48 AM
some 2023 # s for the de-dollarization debate re selling off USD securities. equity share probably up to 50% now given market ⬆️ and $ ⬇️. the "60%" you sometimes hear is not accurate.
@buddyyakov.bsky.social
@benbraun.bsky.social
@erinkaylockwood.bsky.social
@drscottjames.bsky.social
@buddyyakov.bsky.social
@benbraun.bsky.social
@erinkaylockwood.bsky.social
@drscottjames.bsky.social
Reposted by herman mark schwartz
The author of a controversial memo from centrist think tank Searchlight telling Democrats to abandon the slogan “Abolish ICE” is a senior advisor for WestExec, a D.C. shadow lobbyist for corporations in the defense, surveillance, and immigration enforcement industries.
prospect.org/2026/01/19/a...
prospect.org/2026/01/19/a...
Author of ‘Don’t Say Abolish ICE’ Memo Is a Corporate Consultant - The American Prospect
Blas Nuñez-Neto is a senior adviser to WestExec, a shadow lobbyist for defense and tech firms.
prospect.org
January 19, 2026 at 2:13 PM
The author of a controversial memo from centrist think tank Searchlight telling Democrats to abandon the slogan “Abolish ICE” is a senior advisor for WestExec, a D.C. shadow lobbyist for corporations in the defense, surveillance, and immigration enforcement industries.
prospect.org/2026/01/19/a...
prospect.org/2026/01/19/a...
Crime family. But at least they didn’t sell any paintings!
UNREAL: Per NY Times amazing reporting today they found "Trump has used the office of the presidency to make at least $1.4 billion. We know this number to be an underestimate because some of his profits remain hidden from public view." We live in a 3rd world sh*thole! www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Opinion | How Trump Has Used the Presidency to Make at Least $1.4 Billion
The president took an oath to serve the American people. Instead, he’s focused his second term on enriching himself and his family.
www.nytimes.com
January 20, 2026 at 11:47 PM
Crime family. But at least they didn’t sell any paintings!
Reposted by herman mark schwartz
This is not a rational person. And this is deeply disturbing coming from an American President. NATO is not our enemy—they are unequivocally our closest friends and allies.
At this point, how can you not call into question the mental fitness of this President?
At this point, how can you not call into question the mental fitness of this President?
January 20, 2026 at 10:34 PM
12 homes @ $400k median US price you're looking at $4.8m in invested capital - hardly the people whose retirement we should worry about. if mortgaged, the Q is why should they own 12 homes instead of 12 households owning their own home with the same mortgage money?
Bessent: "Someone, maybe your parents for their retirement have bought 5, 10, 12 homes."
January 20, 2026 at 7:29 PM
12 homes @ $400k median US price you're looking at $4.8m in invested capital - hardly the people whose retirement we should worry about. if mortgaged, the Q is why should they own 12 homes instead of 12 households owning their own home with the same mortgage money?
taps the sign...
January 20, 2026 at 7:24 PM
taps the sign...
whole heartedly agree about this though. an absolutely necessary first step.
For non-UK, what's more crucial for sovereignty and geopolitical leverage, especially regarding the holdings of US assets, is the creation of a deep market for joint liabilities for a global euro.
A great recent piece by the mighty @shahinvallee.bsky.social:
www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/a-g...
A great recent piece by the mighty @shahinvallee.bsky.social:
www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/a-g...
January 20, 2026 at 7:21 PM
whole heartedly agree about this though. an absolutely necessary first step.
as with @benbraun.bsky.social 's post i agree in general but it really matters how much of this is custodial for non-UKans and ofshore securities of US firms (particularly financial firms). does anyone know?
Starmer is wrong to opt for suppliance on the basis that the UK has no leverage over the US. British holdings of Treasuries have ballooned and surpassed China's. European holdings overall are major.
January 20, 2026 at 7:21 PM
as with @benbraun.bsky.social 's post i agree in general but it really matters how much of this is custodial for non-UKans and ofshore securities of US firms (particularly financial firms). does anyone know?
Great thread on central bank independence by DL. Worth your 2 minutes
The gist is that the growth of central bank power became a convenient foil for populist politics, both left and right, which in turn has provoked a lot of centrist pearl-clutching about 'independence'. All of this is misguided, but people remain deeply committed to versions of this narrative.
🧵
1/n
🧵
1/n
My weekend essay in @unherd.com on why central bank independence is a distraction. The real danger lies not with unelected technocrats but in the aggrandisement of power by authoritarians and the global financial sector—that’s true even for the Fed.
unherd.com/2026/01/the-...
unherd.com/2026/01/the-...
January 20, 2026 at 1:00 PM
Great thread on central bank independence by DL. Worth your 2 minutes
Reposted by herman mark schwartz
The original concentration camps didn't start as death camps. But they did kill a lot of people through neglect, malnutrition, disease, and individual murders.
There's no distinction between this facility and dachau in 1933.
There's no distinction between this facility and dachau in 1933.
A third immigrant detainee at facility in El Paso has died, ICE says.
Third immigrant detainee at facility in El Paso has died, ICE says
Camp East Montana on Fort Bliss in El Paso is one of the largest ICE detention centers in the country.
nbcnews.to
January 19, 2026 at 9:21 PM
The original concentration camps didn't start as death camps. But they did kill a lot of people through neglect, malnutrition, disease, and individual murders.
There's no distinction between this facility and dachau in 1933.
There's no distinction between this facility and dachau in 1933.
@benbraun.bsky.social with his usual excellent analysis. One note of caution about UK, IRL, LUX, BEL holdings: the 200 largest US firms collectively hold ≈ $1tr in corporate and Treasury bonds & most of that is held offshore - so US debt to “Europe” (and the Caymans) is likely overestimated.
Financial war in response to trade war and territorial threats? More and more people appear to be calling for it. So I updated my post on U.S. Treasuries holdings—now with the latest data.
benjaminbraun.org/posts/treasu...
benjaminbraun.org/posts/treasu...
January 20, 2026 at 12:55 AM
@benbraun.bsky.social with his usual excellent analysis. One note of caution about UK, IRL, LUX, BEL holdings: the 200 largest US firms collectively hold ≈ $1tr in corporate and Treasury bonds & most of that is held offshore - so US debt to “Europe” (and the Caymans) is likely overestimated.