川上信 (Shin Kawakami)🇯🇵🇨🇳🇺🇸
@nkfinity.bsky.social
Japanese/Chinese ハーフ living in the USA
大田区🇯🇵 X 辽宁🇨🇳 X SF Bay Area🇺🇸
Has a Japanese soul, an American brain, and a Chinese stomach.
Born in Japan, roots for Japan in the Olympics🇯🇵🎌🇯🇵
Somewhat of an Japan Knower.
Loves history. Radical Qing monarchist?
大田区🇯🇵 X 辽宁🇨🇳 X SF Bay Area🇺🇸
Has a Japanese soul, an American brain, and a Chinese stomach.
Born in Japan, roots for Japan in the Olympics🇯🇵🎌🇯🇵
Somewhat of an Japan Knower.
Loves history. Radical Qing monarchist?
Pinned
My 2026 prediction: Dems win the House.
My 2026 hot take: Dems take the Senate through AK, NC, OH, ME.
My 2028 hit take: Ruben Gallego over Nikki Haley.
My 2026 hot take: Dems take the Senate through AK, NC, OH, ME.
My 2028 hit take: Ruben Gallego over Nikki Haley.
Reposted by 川上信 (Shin Kawakami)🇯🇵🇨🇳🇺🇸
A subtle one that's easy to miss, but the fact that Andreesen and Musk both use "alpha" as slang for "information advantage" is a clear tell that their mental world is finance, not technology. They try to talk otherwise but they are investors not inventors.
*maximum alpha at 1.25x speed* continuously lives on in my head, unfortunately.
November 11, 2025 at 10:03 AM
A subtle one that's easy to miss, but the fact that Andreesen and Musk both use "alpha" as slang for "information advantage" is a clear tell that their mental world is finance, not technology. They try to talk otherwise but they are investors not inventors.
Reposted by 川上信 (Shin Kawakami)🇯🇵🇨🇳🇺🇸
The basic problem of health insurance: if you want sick people to be able to get insurance, then the insurance product ceases to be traditional insurance, bc the insurer cannot price risk. Once you accept that sick people should get insurance, you must accept some variety of a socialized system.
Rick Scott told me his plan would be to take all of the remaining ACA subsidies and redistribute them to HSA accounts and people can then buy whatever insurance a state certifies. Basically a repeal/replace.
He denied when I asked wouldn’t that create two-tiered system where sick pay much more…
He denied when I asked wouldn’t that create two-tiered system where sick pay much more…
November 11, 2025 at 4:22 AM
The basic problem of health insurance: if you want sick people to be able to get insurance, then the insurance product ceases to be traditional insurance, bc the insurer cannot price risk. Once you accept that sick people should get insurance, you must accept some variety of a socialized system.
Reposted by 川上信 (Shin Kawakami)🇯🇵🇨🇳🇺🇸
i am mad as shit about the democrats caving, have a very good memory, and if you quiz me on exactly what happened this week on election day 2026 i will get maybe 30% right
November 11, 2025 at 5:56 AM
i am mad as shit about the democrats caving, have a very good memory, and if you quiz me on exactly what happened this week on election day 2026 i will get maybe 30% right
Reposted by 川上信 (Shin Kawakami)🇯🇵🇨🇳🇺🇸
one of the weirdest things that people believe on a website where the collective mood changes every thirty-six hours is that events completely unknown to 60% of the population, where 90% have the facts wrong, will have persistent effects eighteen months later
November 11, 2025 at 5:55 AM
one of the weirdest things that people believe on a website where the collective mood changes every thirty-six hours is that events completely unknown to 60% of the population, where 90% have the facts wrong, will have persistent effects eighteen months later
Reposted by 川上信 (Shin Kawakami)🇯🇵🇨🇳🇺🇸
His statement is pretty blunt for a Senator, calling out the Minority Leader of your own party ahead of the Majority Leader is...well suffice to say I think Marty is now off Chuck's Christmas card list lol
November 11, 2025 at 5:06 AM
His statement is pretty blunt for a Senator, calling out the Minority Leader of your own party ahead of the Majority Leader is...well suffice to say I think Marty is now off Chuck's Christmas card list lol
Reddit moment: Redditor (derogatory) chastising another for eating ramen in Japan because ackshually “it’s not native to Japan unlike sushi”
November 11, 2025 at 3:53 AM
Reddit moment: Redditor (derogatory) chastising another for eating ramen in Japan because ackshually “it’s not native to Japan unlike sushi”
Reposted by 川上信 (Shin Kawakami)🇯🇵🇨🇳🇺🇸
The ACA cuts happened in the reconciliation bill in July, every single Democrat voted against it and they got 3 detectors so Vance had to break the tie, and the Dems just shut down the government for 40 days to try and get them to undo it, it is absolutely deranged to blame this on “Democrats”
Yes - this is a loss because Democrats have now signed on to ACA cuts as a complicit party and once again made it a less effective issue for the mid terms
From that perspective, this would be a failure, right? Because the Dems lose the narrative that they did everything to stand in the way of ACA cuts.
November 10, 2025 at 6:17 PM
The ACA cuts happened in the reconciliation bill in July, every single Democrat voted against it and they got 3 detectors so Vance had to break the tie, and the Dems just shut down the government for 40 days to try and get them to undo it, it is absolutely deranged to blame this on “Democrats”
Reposted by 川上信 (Shin Kawakami)🇯🇵🇨🇳🇺🇸
Its not that Elon is a brain dead poster that annoys me, its that he's so bad at it
November 11, 2025 at 2:20 AM
Its not that Elon is a brain dead poster that annoys me, its that he's so bad at it
Reposted by 川上信 (Shin Kawakami)🇯🇵🇨🇳🇺🇸
A good way to do this is also to get a few of your friends together and take over your local Democratic Party! This involves going to a lot of boring meetings but it's *very* possible to do in a lot of the country.
November 10, 2025 at 11:53 PM
A good way to do this is also to get a few of your friends together and take over your local Democratic Party! This involves going to a lot of boring meetings but it's *very* possible to do in a lot of the country.
Reposted by 川上信 (Shin Kawakami)🇯🇵🇨🇳🇺🇸
We're debating on the government funding package right now and every single Republican voted against a Democratic amendment to pass a clean, one-year extension of the ACA tax credits.
Republicans just don't care about your health care.
Republicans just don't care about your health care.
November 11, 2025 at 1:10 AM
We're debating on the government funding package right now and every single Republican voted against a Democratic amendment to pass a clean, one-year extension of the ACA tax credits.
Republicans just don't care about your health care.
Republicans just don't care about your health care.
Reposted by 川上信 (Shin Kawakami)🇯🇵🇨🇳🇺🇸
The Democrats erred by not forcing Republicans to nuke the filibuster. But there was nothing Democrats could have done to get the ACA subsidies extended, because Republicans control all three branches and strongly believe that only rich people should have access to decent healthcare
You can criticize Senate Democrats for capitulating but Donald Trump and Republicans are the ones destroying the ACA.
November 11, 2025 at 1:08 AM
The Democrats erred by not forcing Republicans to nuke the filibuster. But there was nothing Democrats could have done to get the ACA subsidies extended, because Republicans control all three branches and strongly believe that only rich people should have access to decent healthcare
Reposted by 川上信 (Shin Kawakami)🇯🇵🇨🇳🇺🇸
By a vote of 76-24, the Senate agreed to the motion to table the Paul amendment to strike a provision modifying the definition of hemp for purposes of the Agricultural Marketing Act of 1946.
November 11, 2025 at 1:08 AM
By a vote of 76-24, the Senate agreed to the motion to table the Paul amendment to strike a provision modifying the definition of hemp for purposes of the Agricultural Marketing Act of 1946.
Reposted by 川上信 (Shin Kawakami)🇯🇵🇨🇳🇺🇸
1/6 A new standard for public accountability is here. GLOW—Government Lawyers Oversight Watchdog—is officially launching today to hold government lawyers accountable. We're unveiling The Government Lawyers Database at glowlaw.org. #RuleOfLaw #Accountability
The Government Lawyers Database
glowlaw.org
November 10, 2025 at 3:38 PM
1/6 A new standard for public accountability is here. GLOW—Government Lawyers Oversight Watchdog—is officially launching today to hold government lawyers accountable. We're unveiling The Government Lawyers Database at glowlaw.org. #RuleOfLaw #Accountability
I talked to a normie friend last night and they were unaware of a shutdown. I had to show them news of flights being cancelled.
I’m still pretty annoyed about last night. But people acting like the vote itself had an impact on the normie voter (not the material effects) really need to touch grass.
I’m still pretty annoyed about last night. But people acting like the vote itself had an impact on the normie voter (not the material effects) really need to touch grass.
I need people to take a breath and take a step back if they believe this is true of how normie types are going to respond to this a year from now, or if they want to manifest this narrative to make them respond that way.
No one is really going to pay attention to the ACA subsidy vote because what matters is Democrats had leverage, people saw them use it, and people saw them give it away
November 11, 2025 at 12:28 AM
I talked to a normie friend last night and they were unaware of a shutdown. I had to show them news of flights being cancelled.
I’m still pretty annoyed about last night. But people acting like the vote itself had an impact on the normie voter (not the material effects) really need to touch grass.
I’m still pretty annoyed about last night. But people acting like the vote itself had an impact on the normie voter (not the material effects) really need to touch grass.
Reposted by 川上信 (Shin Kawakami)🇯🇵🇨🇳🇺🇸
lmfao i hadn't realized until now that OpenAI has altogether promised 1.5 trillion in compute spending
that's Trillion with a T
brother i don't think the pornbot subscriptions are gonna get you there
that's Trillion with a T
brother i don't think the pornbot subscriptions are gonna get you there
November 10, 2025 at 10:07 PM
lmfao i hadn't realized until now that OpenAI has altogether promised 1.5 trillion in compute spending
that's Trillion with a T
brother i don't think the pornbot subscriptions are gonna get you there
that's Trillion with a T
brother i don't think the pornbot subscriptions are gonna get you there
Reposted by 川上信 (Shin Kawakami)🇯🇵🇨🇳🇺🇸
My honest take is that Ds played a bad hand poorly and the TL is split between people pretending a Pikachu, an expired debt card, and a five dollar coupon for Taco Bell was aces over kings and people pretending shitting on the table and yelling YAHTZEE is 69 dimensional chess.
November 10, 2025 at 5:39 PM
My honest take is that Ds played a bad hand poorly and the TL is split between people pretending a Pikachu, an expired debt card, and a five dollar coupon for Taco Bell was aces over kings and people pretending shitting on the table and yelling YAHTZEE is 69 dimensional chess.
Reposted by 川上信 (Shin Kawakami)🇯🇵🇨🇳🇺🇸
And if we want anything really big, we need a comfortable majority that allows for defections
The 89th Congress (1964 election) started with 68 Senators and 295 House reps on the blue team. LBJ swinging his dick around helped, sure, but holy shit those numbers though.
The 89th Congress (1964 election) started with 68 Senators and 295 House reps on the blue team. LBJ swinging his dick around helped, sure, but holy shit those numbers though.
The thing about winning is that if you wanna win the policies you want you have to actually win elections. We lost elections in 24. So now we don’t get to win policies. Lots of folks seem to struggle with that. Gotta elect majorities.
November 10, 2025 at 8:14 PM
And if we want anything really big, we need a comfortable majority that allows for defections
The 89th Congress (1964 election) started with 68 Senators and 295 House reps on the blue team. LBJ swinging his dick around helped, sure, but holy shit those numbers though.
The 89th Congress (1964 election) started with 68 Senators and 295 House reps on the blue team. LBJ swinging his dick around helped, sure, but holy shit those numbers though.
Reposted by 川上信 (Shin Kawakami)🇯🇵🇨🇳🇺🇸
Wait do I have it correct that Joyce Carol Oates said Musk was a shell of a man with no joy in his life and he totally saw it and said "No I'm not" and now he's searching the titles of different movies he likes and replying "great movie"
November 10, 2025 at 6:55 PM
Wait do I have it correct that Joyce Carol Oates said Musk was a shell of a man with no joy in his life and he totally saw it and said "No I'm not" and now he's searching the titles of different movies he likes and replying "great movie"
Reposted by 川上信 (Shin Kawakami)🇯🇵🇨🇳🇺🇸
Also the RIF language actually has teeth, not just "no russ you can't do the horseshit you were trying as a shutdown tactic" but "anyone who takes any action in support of planning any RIF between now and 30 Jan has exposure for a federal felony with a 5 year statute of limitations"
November 10, 2025 at 7:13 PM
Also the RIF language actually has teeth, not just "no russ you can't do the horseshit you were trying as a shutdown tactic" but "anyone who takes any action in support of planning any RIF between now and 30 Jan has exposure for a federal felony with a 5 year statute of limitations"
Miss the days when congressman had their own niche causes and wasn’t just completed wedded to whatever the national party was pushing.
Made the parties more flexible horse-trading in exchange for votes more viable.
Bring back Pork!!!
Made the parties more flexible horse-trading in exchange for votes more viable.
Bring back Pork!!!
so Paul is asking for the hemp provisions to be removed otherwise he'll refuse UC
Shutdown update: Sen. Rand Paul asking for “vote on an amendment to remove language in the current package that would restrict the production and sale of certain hemp-derived products and result in significant economic harm to farmers and small businesses in Kentucky.” Wants guv reopened ASAP tho
November 10, 2025 at 8:02 PM
Miss the days when congressman had their own niche causes and wasn’t just completed wedded to whatever the national party was pushing.
Made the parties more flexible horse-trading in exchange for votes more viable.
Bring back Pork!!!
Made the parties more flexible horse-trading in exchange for votes more viable.
Bring back Pork!!!
Anyways had lots of heated arguments with some of ya’ll last night.
But my favorite has to be when I said cheap shoes and cheap flights were good and got called a RW fascist for it.
Social media, never change.
But my favorite has to be when I said cheap shoes and cheap flights were good and got called a RW fascist for it.
Social media, never change.
November 10, 2025 at 6:20 PM
Anyways had lots of heated arguments with some of ya’ll last night.
But my favorite has to be when I said cheap shoes and cheap flights were good and got called a RW fascist for it.
Social media, never change.
But my favorite has to be when I said cheap shoes and cheap flights were good and got called a RW fascist for it.
Social media, never change.
1) Now that I’ve had time to calm down and mull things over I’ve kinda changed my mind on this.
I do think there was a marked difference in how House Dems reacted last night vs how they did in March. March felt a lot personal, specifically calling out Sen Dems.
But this time it’s much less so.
I do think there was a marked difference in how House Dems reacted last night vs how they did in March. March felt a lot personal, specifically calling out Sen Dems.
But this time it’s much less so.
Noooo I actually disagree. March was a huge bungle from Senate Dem leadership, but they ultimately were in on it.
This was very different. Senate leadership was definitely not for it, it was a rebellion of the institutionalists.
This was very different. Senate leadership was definitely not for it, it was a rebellion of the institutionalists.
November 10, 2025 at 6:16 PM
1) Now that I’ve had time to calm down and mull things over I’ve kinda changed my mind on this.
I do think there was a marked difference in how House Dems reacted last night vs how they did in March. March felt a lot personal, specifically calling out Sen Dems.
But this time it’s much less so.
I do think there was a marked difference in how House Dems reacted last night vs how they did in March. March felt a lot personal, specifically calling out Sen Dems.
But this time it’s much less so.
Reposted by 川上信 (Shin Kawakami)🇯🇵🇨🇳🇺🇸
“primary every democrat” only becomes a serious threat if bsky doesn’t go goo goo babies over platner-esque candidates
November 10, 2025 at 4:19 PM
“primary every democrat” only becomes a serious threat if bsky doesn’t go goo goo babies over platner-esque candidates
This is a great thread. I don’t think I quite agree with all of it but OP makes it clear, if a few Dems peel off to vote with the GOP, then this is a great tell that it’s all Kabuki theater.
8) This also puts the House in the jackpot.
Will House Republicans vote to accept the Senate deal? If they defect, how many Dems will vote to make up the difference. (Answer: as many Dems as it takes, Jeffries will see to this. While publicly "no," he'll make the plan work.)
Will House Republicans vote to accept the Senate deal? If they defect, how many Dems will vote to make up the difference. (Answer: as many Dems as it takes, Jeffries will see to this. While publicly "no," he'll make the plan work.)
November 10, 2025 at 5:22 PM
This is a great thread. I don’t think I quite agree with all of it but OP makes it clear, if a few Dems peel off to vote with the GOP, then this is a great tell that it’s all Kabuki theater.
Reposted by 川上信 (Shin Kawakami)🇯🇵🇨🇳🇺🇸
Some thoughts on the CR/minibus.
1 The Dems negotiating with Rs were not freelancing. They coordinated with Sen Schumer. A few were ready to give in on day one, others worked to maximize appropriations wins.
Those voting for the 'deal' are the ones furthest away from electoral consequences.
1 The Dems negotiating with Rs were not freelancing. They coordinated with Sen Schumer. A few were ready to give in on day one, others worked to maximize appropriations wins.
Those voting for the 'deal' are the ones furthest away from electoral consequences.
November 10, 2025 at 1:45 PM
Some thoughts on the CR/minibus.
1 The Dems negotiating with Rs were not freelancing. They coordinated with Sen Schumer. A few were ready to give in on day one, others worked to maximize appropriations wins.
Those voting for the 'deal' are the ones furthest away from electoral consequences.
1 The Dems negotiating with Rs were not freelancing. They coordinated with Sen Schumer. A few were ready to give in on day one, others worked to maximize appropriations wins.
Those voting for the 'deal' are the ones furthest away from electoral consequences.