Lawrence Vulis
@lvulis.bsky.social
Climate Data Scientist working on natural hazards and climate risk in the property sector. Interested in the science of water, climate, cities, and landscapes, also dogs. Opinions are solely my own.
Pinned
Lawrence Vulis
@lvulis.bsky.social
· Feb 28
It's all so fucking dumb
Reposted by Lawrence Vulis
According to OSINT reports, quoting Venezuelan government contacts: The incident stemmed from a case of mistaken identity.
A commercial drone—unclear if civilian or from security forces—flew near the Miraflores area, sparking widespread gunfire.
A commercial drone—unclear if civilian or from security forces—flew near the Miraflores area, sparking widespread gunfire.
January 6, 2026 at 1:21 AM
According to OSINT reports, quoting Venezuelan government contacts: The incident stemmed from a case of mistaken identity.
A commercial drone—unclear if civilian or from security forces—flew near the Miraflores area, sparking widespread gunfire.
A commercial drone—unclear if civilian or from security forces—flew near the Miraflores area, sparking widespread gunfire.
Reposted by Lawrence Vulis
OSINT report, still trying to get better verification:
Without confirmation, there are reports of an alleged drone flyover at the Miraflores Palace, which triggered a response with bursts of gunfire.
Without confirmation, there are reports of an alleged drone flyover at the Miraflores Palace, which triggered a response with bursts of gunfire.
January 6, 2026 at 1:08 AM
OSINT report, still trying to get better verification:
Without confirmation, there are reports of an alleged drone flyover at the Miraflores Palace, which triggered a response with bursts of gunfire.
Without confirmation, there are reports of an alleged drone flyover at the Miraflores Palace, which triggered a response with bursts of gunfire.
Reposted by Lawrence Vulis
Heavy gunfire near Miraflores, Presidential palace, in Caracas, Venezuela
Still no word on reason as of yet.
Still no word on reason as of yet.
January 6, 2026 at 12:37 AM
Heavy gunfire near Miraflores, Presidential palace, in Caracas, Venezuela
Still no word on reason as of yet.
Still no word on reason as of yet.
Reposted by Lawrence Vulis
The Hill Defence reporter Filip Timotija is also reporting loud blasts near the Presidential palace in Caracas, Venezuela.
January 6, 2026 at 12:41 AM
The Hill Defence reporter Filip Timotija is also reporting loud blasts near the Presidential palace in Caracas, Venezuela.
Reposted by Lawrence Vulis
ICYMI: There are lots of myths & misunderstandings about Australian rooftop solar power floating around, so I went straight to my favorite Australian source to get the real scoop.
What's the real story with Australian rooftop solar?
Saul Griffith joins me to debunk the myths surrounding Australia's massive influx of solar energy.
www.volts.wtf
January 5, 2026 at 7:18 PM
ICYMI: There are lots of myths & misunderstandings about Australian rooftop solar power floating around, so I went straight to my favorite Australian source to get the real scoop.
Reposted by Lawrence Vulis
I've measured 9.07" or rain at my house in central Turlock thus far for the 2025-26 water year which started October 1st. That is 195% of average for the year to date (4.66"). It looks like we'll be entering a cooler dry pattern for a spell, but hopefully later in January will be better.
January 5, 2026 at 7:12 PM
I've measured 9.07" or rain at my house in central Turlock thus far for the 2025-26 water year which started October 1st. That is 195% of average for the year to date (4.66"). It looks like we'll be entering a cooler dry pattern for a spell, but hopefully later in January will be better.
Reposted by Lawrence Vulis
over on @washingtonpost.com - yet another piece on the lack of 'starter homes'
we should stop using this term. high interest rates. high land values.
the starter home as our parents knew it is not coming back.
we need a new path forward.
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
we should stop using this term. high interest rates. high land values.
the starter home as our parents knew it is not coming back.
we need a new path forward.
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
Why America stopped building the ‘starter home’
Concepts about starter homes seem inconsistent with today’s prices and expansive floor plans, leaving many first-time homebuyers with few options.
www.washingtonpost.com
January 5, 2026 at 5:09 PM
over on @washingtonpost.com - yet another piece on the lack of 'starter homes'
we should stop using this term. high interest rates. high land values.
the starter home as our parents knew it is not coming back.
we need a new path forward.
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
we should stop using this term. high interest rates. high land values.
the starter home as our parents knew it is not coming back.
we need a new path forward.
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
Reposted by Lawrence Vulis
During the West Fire in Alpine in July, 2018, we assisted a homeowner in extinguishing a large burning hedge right next to his home's exterior wall. If he hadn't been there with his green line (garden hose), his house would have burned down. 100%.
January 5, 2026 at 5:07 PM
During the West Fire in Alpine in July, 2018, we assisted a homeowner in extinguishing a large burning hedge right next to his home's exterior wall. If he hadn't been there with his green line (garden hose), his house would have burned down. 100%.
Reposted by Lawrence Vulis
Unbelievable. The National Weather Service issued a wind warning supported by a hazard map showing places that **do not exist***.
Wait a minute...why is NWS throwing out genAI generated slop on their socials?
This is a horrible look and doesn't help keep people safe or aware of the forecast.
This is a horrible look and doesn't help keep people safe or aware of the forecast.
January 5, 2026 at 3:59 PM
Unbelievable. The National Weather Service issued a wind warning supported by a hazard map showing places that **do not exist***.
Reposted by Lawrence Vulis
New: The new year has brought the expiration of generous federal tax credits for home solar and battery systems and heat pumps. Here's what you need to know about costs in 2026 and a work around for homeowners. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Solar Panels and Heat Pumps to Be More Expensive in 2026
Here’s what you need to know about electrifying your home as US green tax credits expire.
www.bloomberg.com
January 5, 2026 at 4:15 PM
New: The new year has brought the expiration of generous federal tax credits for home solar and battery systems and heat pumps. Here's what you need to know about costs in 2026 and a work around for homeowners. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reposted by Lawrence Vulis
Analysis: San Diego’s population is growing faster than other CA metros — thanks to the city
San Diego's population is growing rapidly, adding 43,000 residents in three years, primarily within the city. This growth, constituting 12% of California's tota…
San Diego's population is growing rapidly, adding 43,000 residents in three years, primarily within the city. This growth, constituting 12% of California's tota…
Analysis: San Diego's population is growing faster than other CA metros — thanks to the city
San Diego in the last three years has grown faster than the state's biggest metro areas. And its growth is overwhelming coming in the city.
timesofsandiego.com
January 5, 2026 at 3:55 PM
Analysis: San Diego’s population is growing faster than other CA metros — thanks to the city
San Diego's population is growing rapidly, adding 43,000 residents in three years, primarily within the city. This growth, constituting 12% of California's tota…
San Diego's population is growing rapidly, adding 43,000 residents in three years, primarily within the city. This growth, constituting 12% of California's tota…
Reposted by Lawrence Vulis
While #Venezuela has the world's largest oil reserves, those figures do not translate directly into immediate production flow rates or rapid incremental increases, which demand substantial time and investment. Short overvew via @razoroil 🧵 1/
January 5, 2026 at 3:46 PM
While #Venezuela has the world's largest oil reserves, those figures do not translate directly into immediate production flow rates or rapid incremental increases, which demand substantial time and investment. Short overvew via @razoroil 🧵 1/
Reposted by Lawrence Vulis
The latest numbers are in: Congestion pricing cut 27M car trips in 2025.
Commutes got faster
Streets got safer
And business went up
See more exclusive analysis - and feedback from 600+readers - in our latest collab with @upshot.nytimes.com
Free link:
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Commutes got faster
Streets got safer
And business went up
See more exclusive analysis - and feedback from 600+readers - in our latest collab with @upshot.nytimes.com
Free link:
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Congestion pricing after one year: How life has changed. (Gift Article)
How life has changed in the New York area, according to data on traffic, transit and the responses of 600 readers.
www.nytimes.com
January 5, 2026 at 1:34 PM
The latest numbers are in: Congestion pricing cut 27M car trips in 2025.
Commutes got faster
Streets got safer
And business went up
See more exclusive analysis - and feedback from 600+readers - in our latest collab with @upshot.nytimes.com
Free link:
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Commutes got faster
Streets got safer
And business went up
See more exclusive analysis - and feedback from 600+readers - in our latest collab with @upshot.nytimes.com
Free link:
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
The past few weeks of storms have been nuts. Tons of localized flooding in hotspots here - cars full of water in valley bottoms, super high intensity rain in spurts.
January 5, 2026 at 6:25 AM
The past few weeks of storms have been nuts. Tons of localized flooding in hotspots here - cars full of water in valley bottoms, super high intensity rain in spurts.
Reposted by Lawrence Vulis
I’m quoted with @williamyang120.bsky.social in @reuters.com discussing reactions to Venezuela from Taiwan.
www.reuters.com/world/china/...
www.reuters.com/world/china/...
US strike on Venezuela to embolden China's territorial claims, Taiwan attack unlikely, analysts say
The U.S. attack on Venezuela will embolden China to strengthen its territorial claims over areas such as Taiwan and parts of the South China Sea but will not hasten any potential invasion of Taiwan, a...
www.reuters.com
January 5, 2026 at 2:12 AM
I’m quoted with @williamyang120.bsky.social in @reuters.com discussing reactions to Venezuela from Taiwan.
www.reuters.com/world/china/...
www.reuters.com/world/china/...
Reposted by Lawrence Vulis
NEW: How cheap are grid batteries?🔋🔋🔋
Grid batteries are now only c.$125/KWh connected🤯
This assessment is based on a series of expert interviews and storage auction results as of October 2025. 🧵
Grid batteries are now only c.$125/KWh connected🤯
This assessment is based on a series of expert interviews and storage auction results as of October 2025. 🧵
December 12, 2025 at 1:31 PM
NEW: How cheap are grid batteries?🔋🔋🔋
Grid batteries are now only c.$125/KWh connected🤯
This assessment is based on a series of expert interviews and storage auction results as of October 2025. 🧵
Grid batteries are now only c.$125/KWh connected🤯
This assessment is based on a series of expert interviews and storage auction results as of October 2025. 🧵
Reposted by Lawrence Vulis
"Similar increases in C-17 activity at the base were observed ahead of U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025."
ukdefencejournal.org.uk/u-s-special-...
ukdefencejournal.org.uk/u-s-special-...
U.S. special operations units transit UK en route to Europe
Recent U.S. military air movements into the United Kingdom indicate a redeployment of American special forces into Europe, UK Defence Journal understands.
ukdefencejournal.org.uk
January 4, 2026 at 6:01 PM
"Similar increases in C-17 activity at the base were observed ahead of U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025."
ukdefencejournal.org.uk/u-s-special-...
ukdefencejournal.org.uk/u-s-special-...
San Diego is requiring zone 0 in the new Very High Fire Hazard Severity Zones, which include a lot of urban San Diego that is currently being upzoned to 8-20 story buildings. www.kpbs.org/news/public-...
Strict wildfire safety rules will soon apply to much of urban San Diego
New regulations will require homeowners to remove combustible materials, including wood fencing, sheds and landscaping, from a five-foot buffer zone surrounding a home's outer walls.
www.kpbs.org
January 4, 2026 at 4:11 PM
San Diego is requiring zone 0 in the new Very High Fire Hazard Severity Zones, which include a lot of urban San Diego that is currently being upzoned to 8-20 story buildings. www.kpbs.org/news/public-...
Waiting for the 2026 version of this report using 2025 numbers where iirc a similar price drop was recorded
Just recorded a pod on solar+storage and holy shit y'all, if you are not tracking this market on a daily basis, you have no idea how wild it is. The global average price of a battery pack fell 40% *from 2023 to 2024*. That dropped the LCOE of a solar+storage plant by 22%. In a year!
January 3, 2026 at 9:33 PM
Waiting for the 2026 version of this report using 2025 numbers where iirc a similar price drop was recorded
Reposted by Lawrence Vulis
The US produces >13 mn barrels of oil per day. Venezuela produces <1 million bpd
There's a global oil glut i.e. lower prices. That's bad for US producers, who need higher prices to break even. Hard to imagine they're eager to make big new investments in an unstable place w/ decrepit infrastructure
There's a global oil glut i.e. lower prices. That's bad for US producers, who need higher prices to break even. Hard to imagine they're eager to make big new investments in an unstable place w/ decrepit infrastructure
January 3, 2026 at 8:08 PM
The US produces >13 mn barrels of oil per day. Venezuela produces <1 million bpd
There's a global oil glut i.e. lower prices. That's bad for US producers, who need higher prices to break even. Hard to imagine they're eager to make big new investments in an unstable place w/ decrepit infrastructure
There's a global oil glut i.e. lower prices. That's bad for US producers, who need higher prices to break even. Hard to imagine they're eager to make big new investments in an unstable place w/ decrepit infrastructure
Reposted by Lawrence Vulis
reporting for duty 🫡
Pour one out for @roryjohnston.bsky.social as he spends the next 6-12 months explaining why Venezuelan crude isn't worth much to conspiracy addled poasters.
January 3, 2026 at 8:18 PM
reporting for duty 🫡
Reposted by Lawrence Vulis
More photos.Surprisingly, the onramp to 101 was open. Lots of drivers making bad decisions. Lots of flooded buildings. Lots of individuals pumpting their water next door - doesn't seem so neighborly.
January 3, 2026 at 7:50 PM
More photos.Surprisingly, the onramp to 101 was open. Lots of drivers making bad decisions. Lots of flooded buildings. Lots of individuals pumpting their water next door - doesn't seem so neighborly.
Reposted by Lawrence Vulis
Today's king tide peaked in San Francisco at 2.56’ above MHHW, the 3rd-highest water level since records began in 1897. Only two water levels in 1983 were higher. According to NOAA, the 2026 level would have been a 1-in-100-year water level 30 years ago, but is now more like a 1-in-70-year event.
January 3, 2026 at 7:26 PM
Today's king tide peaked in San Francisco at 2.56’ above MHHW, the 3rd-highest water level since records began in 1897. Only two water levels in 1983 were higher. According to NOAA, the 2026 level would have been a 1-in-100-year water level 30 years ago, but is now more like a 1-in-70-year event.
Reposted by Lawrence Vulis
If you are a resident of California, the state now has a portal where you can demand deletion of your personal data from 500+ registered data brokers with a single request form, for free.
consumer.drop.privacy.ca.gov
consumer.drop.privacy.ca.gov
consumer.drop.privacy.ca.gov
January 2, 2026 at 2:26 AM
If you are a resident of California, the state now has a portal where you can demand deletion of your personal data from 500+ registered data brokers with a single request form, for free.
consumer.drop.privacy.ca.gov
consumer.drop.privacy.ca.gov
Reposted by Lawrence Vulis
The real kicker here is that if US companies do succeed in ramping up Venezuela’s oil, it’s some of the dirtiest and most carbon intensive in the world. And it’s cheap to produce (PdVSA says $5/barrel, probably closer to $25).
ociplus.rmi.org/supply-chain
ociplus.rmi.org/supply-chain
January 3, 2026 at 6:55 PM
The real kicker here is that if US companies do succeed in ramping up Venezuela’s oil, it’s some of the dirtiest and most carbon intensive in the world. And it’s cheap to produce (PdVSA says $5/barrel, probably closer to $25).
ociplus.rmi.org/supply-chain
ociplus.rmi.org/supply-chain