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paperposterbot.bsky.social
ArXiv Paperboy (Stat.ME+Econ.EM)
@paperposterbot.bsky.social
2.1K followers 2 following 20K posts
posts updates from arXiv rss feeds for methodology papers in Statistics and Econometrics. Also maintains an arxiv and posts random papers from it.

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paperposterbot.bsky.social
arXiv📈🤖
Quantifying Human Priors over Social and Navigation Networks
By
arXiv:2402.18651v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Human knowledge is largely implicit and relational -- do we have a friend in common? can I walk from here to there? In this work, we leverage the combinatorial structure of graphs to quantify human priors over such relational data. Our experiments focus on two domains that have been continuously relevant over evolutionary timescales: social interaction and spatial navigation. We find that some features of the inferred priors are remarkably consistent, such as the tendency for sparsity as a function of graph size. Other features are domain-specific, such as the propensity for triadic closure in social interactions. More broadly, our work demonstrates how nonclassical statistical analysis of indirect behavioral experiments can be used to efficiently model latent biases in the data.
February 10, 2026 at 3:59 AM
paperposterbot.bsky.social
arXiv📈🤖
Ridge partial correlation screening for ultrahigh-dimensional data
By Wang, Nguyen, Dutta et al
Variable selection in ultrahigh-dimensional linear regression is challenging due to its high computational cost. Therefore, a screening step is usually conducted before variable selection to significantly reduce the dimension. Here we propose a novel and simple screening method based on ordering the absolute sample ridge partial correlations. The proposed method takes into account not only the ridge regularized estimates of the regression coefficients but also the ridge regularized partial variances of the predictor variables providing sure screening property without strong assumptions on the marginal correlations. Simulation study and a real data analysis show that the proposed method has a competitive performance compared with the existing screening procedures. A publicly available software implementing the proposed screening accompanies the article.
February 10, 2026 at 1:39 AM
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arXiv📈🤖
Obtaining $(\epsilon,\delta)$-differential privacy guarantees when using a Poisson mechanism to synthesize contingency tables
By
arXiv:2407.00417v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We show that differential privacy type guarantees can be obtained when using a Poisson synthesis mechanism to protect counts in contingency tables. Specifically, we show how to obtain $(\epsilon, \delta)$-probabilistic differential privacy guarantees via the Poisson distribution's cumulative distribution function. We demonstrate this empirically with the synthesis of an administrative-type confidential database.
February 9, 2026 at 10:14 PM
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arXiv📈🤖
Prediction-based inference for integrated diffusions with high-frequency data
By J{\o}rgensen, S{\o}rensen
We consider parametric inference for an ergodic and stationary diffusion process, when the data are high-frequency observations of the integral of the diffusion process. Such data are obtained via certain measurement devices, or if positions are recorded and speed is modelled by a diffusion. In finance, realized volatility or variations thereof can be used to construct observations of the latent integrated volatility process. Specifically, we assume that the integrated process is observed at equidistant, deterministic time points and consider the high-frequency/infinite horizon asymptotic scenario, where the number of observations, the sampling frequency and the time of the last observation all go to infinity. Subject to mild standard regularity conditions on the diffusion model, we prove the asymptotic existence and uniqueness of a consistent estimator for useful and tractable classes of prediction-based estimating functions. Asymptotic normality of the estimator is obtained under an additional assumption on the rates. The proofs are based on the useful Euler-Ito expansions of transformations of diffusions and integrated diffusions, which we study in some detail.
February 9, 2026 at 8:20 PM
paperposterbot.bsky.social
arXiv📈🤖
Sequential Auditing for f-Differential Privacy
By Kutta, Dunsche, Wei et al
We present new auditors to assess Differential Privacy (DP) of an algorithm based on output samples. Such empirical auditors are common to check for algorithmic correctness and implementation bugs. Most existing auditors are batch-based or targeted toward the traditional notion of $(\varepsilon,\delta)$-DP; typically both. In this work, we shift the focus to the highly expressive privacy concept of $f$-DP, in which the entire privacy behavior is captured by a single tradeoff curve. Our auditors detect violations across the full privacy spectrum with statistical significance guarantees, which are supported by theory and simulations. Most importantly, and in contrast to prior work, our auditors do not require a user-specified sample size as an input. Rather, they adaptively determine a near-optimal number of samples needed to reach a decision, thereby avoiding the excessively large sample sizes common in many auditing studies. This reduction in sampling cost becomes especially beneficial for expensive training procedures such as DP-SGD. Our method supports both whitebox and blackbox settings and can also be executed in single-run frameworks.
February 9, 2026 at 8:18 PM
paperposterbot.bsky.social
arXiv📈🤖
Inferring Microscopic Explanatory Structures from Observational Constraints via Large Deviations
By Ichiki
We study how macroscopic observational constraints restrict admissible microscopic explanatory structures when no intrinsic order or dynamics is assumed a priori. Starting from an unordered collection of measurement outcomes, we formulate inference as a constrained large deviation problem, selecting probability assignments that minimize relative entropy with respect to a reference measure determined solely by the measurement setup. We show that among all microscopic structures compatible with a given macroscopic constraint, those rendering the observation statistically most typical are selected. As an explicit illustration, we demonstrate how ordered microscopic structures can emerge purely from inference under constraint, even when the reference measure is fully permutation symmetric. Order is thus not assumed but inferred, serving here only as an illustrative example of a broader class of relational explanatory hypotheses constrained by observation.
February 9, 2026 at 8:14 PM
paperposterbot.bsky.social
arXiv📈🤖
Joint survival annuity derivative valuation in the linear-rational Wishart mortality model
By Fonseca, Wong
This study proposes a linear-rational joint survival mortality model based on the Wishart process. The Wishart process, which is a stochastic continuous matrix affine process, allows for a general dependency between the mortality intensities that are constructed to be positive. Using the linear-rational framework along with the Wishart process as state variable, we derive a closed-form expression for the joint survival annuity, as well as the guaranteed joint survival annuity option. Exploiting our parameterisation of the Wishart process, we explicit the distribution of the mortality intensities and their dependency. We provide the distribution (density and cumulative distribution) of the joint survival annuity. We also develop some polynomial expansions for the underlying state variable that lead to fast and accurate approximations for the guaranteed joint survival annuity option. These polynomial expansions also significantly simplify the implementation of the model. Overall, the linear-rational Wishart mortality model provides a flexible and unified framework for modelling and managing joint mortality risk.
February 9, 2026 at 8:10 PM
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arXiv📈🤖
Modeling the Hazard Function with Non-linear Systems in Dynamical Survival Analysis
By Liyanage, Hridoy, Mostafa
Hazard functions play a central role in survival analysis, offering insight into the underlying risk dynamics of time to event data, with broad applications in medicine, epidemiology, and related fields. First order ordinary differential equation (ODE) formulations of the hazard function have been explored as extensions beyond classical parametric models. However, such approaches typically produce monotonic hazard patterns, limiting their ability to represent oscillatory behavior, nonlinear damping, or coupled growth decay dynamics. We propose a new statistical framework for modeling and simulating hazard functions governed by higher-order ODEs, allowing risk to depend on both its current level, its rate of change, and time. This class of models captures complex time dependent risk behaviors relevant to survival analysis and reliability studies. We develop a simulation procedure by reformulating the higher order ODE as a system of nonlinear first order equations solved numerically, with failure times generated via cumulative hazard inversion. Likelihood based inference under right censoring is also developed, and moment generating function analysis is used to characterize tail behavior. The proposed framework is evaluated through simulation studies and illustrated using real world survival data, where oscillatory hazard dynamics capture temporal risk patterns beyond standard monotone models.
February 9, 2026 at 8:07 PM
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arXiv📈🤖
Assessment of evidence against homogeneity in exhaustive subgroup treatment effect plots
By Bornkamp, Lu, Bretz
Exhaustive subgroup treatment effect plots are constructed by displaying all subgroup treatment effects of interest against subgroup sample size, providing a useful overview of the observed treatment effect heterogeneity in a clinical trial. As in any exploratory subgroup analysis, however, the observed estimates suffer from small sample sizes and multiplicity issues. To facilitate more interpretable exploratory assessments, this paper introduces a computationally efficient method to generate homogeneity regions within exhaustive subgroup treatment effect plots. Using the Doubly Robust (DR) learner, pseudo-outcomes are used to estimate subgroup effects and derive reference distributions, quantifying how surprising observed heterogeneity is under a homogeneous effects model. Explicit formulas are derived for the homogeneity region and different methods for calculation of the critical values are compared. The method is illustrated with a cardiovascular trial and evaluated via simulation, showing well-calibrated inference and improved performance over standard approaches using simple differences of observed group means.
February 9, 2026 at 8:04 PM
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arXiv📈🤖
Identification and Estimation of Network Models with Nonparametric Unobserved Heterogeneity
By Zeleneev
Homophily based on observables is widespread in networks. Therefore, homophily based on unobservables (fixed effects) is also likely to be an important determinant of the interaction outcomes. Failing to properly account for latent homophily (and other complex forms of unobserved heterogeneity) can result in inconsistent estimators and misleading policy implications. To address this concern, we consider a network model with nonparametric unobserved heterogeneity, leaving the role of the fixed effects unspecified. We argue that the interaction outcomes can be used to identify agents with the same values of the fixed effects. The variation in the observed characteristics of such agents allows us to identify the effects of the covariates, while controlling for the fixed effects. Building on these ideas, we construct several estimators of the parameters of interest and characterize their large sample properties. Numerical experiments illustrate the usefulness of the suggested approaches and support the asymptotic theory.
February 9, 2026 at 8:00 PM
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arXiv📈🤖
A prediction interval for the population-wise error rate
By Luschei, Brannath
We construct an asymptotic prediction interval for the population-wise error rate (PWER), which is a multiple type I error criterion for clinical trials with overlapping patient populations. The PWER is the probability that a randomly selected patient will receive an ineffective treatment. It must usually be estimated due to unknown population strata sizes, such that only an estimate can be controlled at the given significance level. We apply the delta method to find a prediction interval for the resulting true PWER, we demonstrate by simulations that the interval has the required coverage probability, and illustrate the approach with real data examples.
February 9, 2026 at 7:57 PM
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arXiv📈🤖
Efficient Online Variational Estimation via Monte Carlo Sampling
By STOCKHOLM), STOCKHOLM), (UBS) et al
This article addresses online variational estimation in parametric state-space models. We propose a new procedure for efficiently computing the evidence lower bound and its gradient in a streaming-data setting, where observations arrive sequentially. The algorithm allows for the simultaneous training of the model parameters and the distribution of the latent states given the observations. It is based on i.i.d. Monte Carlo sampling, coupled with a well-chosen deep architecture, enabling both computational efficiency and flexibility. The performance of the method is illustrated on both synthetic data and real-world air-quality data. The proposed approach is theoretically motivated by the existence of an asymptotic contrast function and the ergodicity of the underlying Markov chain, and applies more generally to the computation of additive expectations under posterior distributions in state-space models.
February 9, 2026 at 7:54 PM
paperposterbot.bsky.social
arXiv📈🤖
On Stein's Method of Moments and Generalized Score Matching
By Kume, Walker
We show that a special case of method of moment estimator derived from the Stein class coincides with the class of generalized score matching estimator. Choosing a suitable weight function for generalized score matching is not straightforward. However, by placing it within the method of moment framework we can alleviate this problem by extending the Stein class to generalized method of moments. As a consequence we can work with a number of functions and hence derive generalized score matching estimators with optimal properties.
February 9, 2026 at 7:52 PM
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arXiv📈🤖
Social Interactions Models with Latent Structures
By Lin, Shi, Zheng
This paper studies estimation and inference of heterogeneous peer effects featuring group fixed effects and slope heterogeneity under latent structure. We adapt the Classifier-Lasso algorithm to consistently discover latent structures and determine the number of clusters. To solve the incidental parameter problem in the binary choice model with social interactions, we propose a parametric bootstrap method to debias and establish its asymptotic validity. Monte Carlo simulations confirm strong finite sample performance of our methods. In an application to students' risky behaviors, the algorithm detects two latent clusters and finds that peer effects are significant within one of the clusters, demonstrating the practical applicability in uncovering heterogeneous social interactions.
February 9, 2026 at 7:48 PM
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arXiv📈🤖
E-values for Adaptive Clinical Trials: Anytime-Valid Monitoring in Practice
By Sokolova, Sokolov
Adaptive clinical trials rely on interim analyses, flexible stopping, and data-dependent design modifications that complicate statistical guarantees when fixed-horizon test statistics are repeatedly inspected or reused after adaptations. E-values and e-processes provide anytime-valid tests and confidence sequences that remain valid under optional stopping and optional continuation without requiring a prespecified monitoring schedule. This paper is a methodology guide for practitioners. We develop the betting-martingale construction of e-processes for two-arm randomized controlled trials, show how e-values naturally handle composite null hypotheses and support futility monitoring, and provide guidance on when e-values are appropriate, when established alternatives are preferable, and how to integrate e-value monitoring with group sequential and Bayesian adaptive workflows. A numerical study compares five monitoring rules -- naive and calibrated versions of frequentist, Bayesian, and e-value approaches -- in a two-arm binary-endpoint trial. Naive repeated testing and naive posterior thresholds inflate Type I error substantially under frequent interim looks. Among the valid methods, the calibrated group sequential rule achieves the highest power, the e-value rule provides robust anytime-valid control with moderate power, and the calibrated Bayesian rule is the most conservative. Extended simulations show that the power gap between group sequential and e-value methods depends on the monitoring schedule and reverses under continuous monitoring. The methodology, including futility monitoring, platform trial multiplicity control, and hybrid strategies combining e-values with established methods, is implemented in the open-source R package `evalinger` and situated within the regulatory framework of the January 2026 FDA draft guidance on Bayesian methodology.
February 9, 2026 at 7:44 PM
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arXiv📈🤖
Design-Conditional Prior Elicitation for Dirichlet Process Mixtures: A Unified Framework for Cluster Counts and Weight Control
By Lee
Dirichlet process mixture (DPM) models are widely used for semiparametric Bayesian analysis in educational and behavioral research, yet specifying the concentration parameter remains a critical barrier. Default hyperpriors often impose strong, unintended assumptions about clustering, while existing calibration methods based on cluster counts suffer from computational inefficiency and fail to control the distribution of mixture weights. This article introduces Design-Conditional Elicitation (DCE), a unified framework that translates practitioner beliefs about cluster structure into coherent Gamma hyperpriors for a fixed design size J. DCE makes three contributions. First, it solves the computational bottleneck using Two-Stage Moment Matching (TSMM), which couples a closed-form approximation with an exact Newton refinement to calibrate hyperparameters without grid search. Second, addressing the "unintended prior" phenomenon, DCE incorporates a Dual-Anchor protocol to diagnose and optionally constrain the risk of weight dominance while transparently reporting the resulting trade-off against cluster-count fidelity. Third, the complete workflow is implemented in the open-source DPprior R package with reproducible diagnostics and a reporting checklist. Simulation studies demonstrate that common defaults such as Gamma(1, 1) induce posterior collapse rates exceeding 60% regardless of the true cluster structure, while DCE-calibrated priors substantially reduce bias and improve recovery across varying levels of data informativeness.
February 9, 2026 at 7:39 PM
paperposterbot.bsky.social
arXiv📈🤖
Conformal changepoint localization
By Hore, Ramdas
We study the problem of offline changepoint localization in a distribution-free setting. One observes a vector of data with a single changepoint, assuming that the data before and after the changepoint are iid (or more generally exchangeable) from arbitrary and unknown distributions. The goal is to produce a finite-sample confidence set for the index at which the change occurs without making any other assumptions. Existing methods often rely on parametric assumptions, tail conditions, or asymptotic approximations, or only produce point estimates. In contrast, our distribution-free algorithm, CONformal CHangepoint localization (CONCH), only leverages exchangeability arguments to construct confidence sets with finite sample coverage. By proving a conformal Neyman-Pearson lemma, we derive principled score functions that yield informative (small) sets. Moreover, with such score functions, the normalized length of the confidence set shrinks to zero under weak assumptions. We also establish a universality result showing that any distribution-free changepoint localization method must be an instance of CONCH. Experiments suggest that CONCH delivers precise confidence sets even in challenging settings involving images or text.
February 9, 2026 at 7:37 PM
paperposterbot.bsky.social
arXiv📈🤖
Latent variation in pathogen strain-specific effects under multiple-versions-of-treatment theory
By Gon\c{c}alves
Evidence-informed policy on infections requires estimates of their effects on health. However, pathogenic variation, whereby occurrence of adverse outcomes depends on the infecting strain, might complicate the study of many infectious agents. Here, we consider the interpretation of epidemiologic studies on effects of infections on health when there is heterogeneity in strain-specific effects and information on strain composition is unavailable. We use potential outcomes and causal inference theory for analyses in the presence of multiple versions of treatment to argue that oft-reported quantities in these studies have a causal interpretation that depends on population frequencies of infecting strains. Moreover, as in other contexts where the treatment-variation-irrelevance assumption might be violated, transportability requires additional considerations, beyond those needed for non-compound exposures. This discussion, that considers potential heterogeneity in strain-specific effects, will facilitate interpretation of these studies, and for the reasons mentioned above, also highlights the value of pathogen subtype data.
February 9, 2026 at 7:33 PM
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arXiv📈🤖
A Compound Logistic Regression Model for Binary Responses
By Almudevar, Almudevar
Logistic regression is the most commonly used method for constructing predictive models for binary responses. One significant drawback to this approach, however, is that the asymptotes of the logistic response function are fixed at 0 and 1, and there are many applications for which this constraint is inappropriate. More flexible models have been proposed for this application, most proceeding by supplementing the logistic response function with additional parameters. In this article we extend these models to allow correlated responses and the inclusion of covariates. This is achieved through the \emph{compound logistic regression model}, for which the mean response is a function of several logistic regression functions. This permits a greater variety of models, while retaining the advantages of logistic regression.
February 9, 2026 at 7:32 PM
paperposterbot.bsky.social
arXiv📈🤖
Mosaic inference on panel data
By Spector, Barber, Cand\`es
Analysis of panel data via linear regression is widespread across disciplines. To perform statistical inference, such analyses typically assume that clusters of observations are jointly independent. For example, one might assume that observations in New York are independent of observations in New Jersey. Are such assumptions plausible? Might there be hidden dependencies between nearby clusters? This paper introduces a mosaic permutation test that can (i) test the cluster-independence assumption and (ii) produce confidence intervals for linear models without assuming the full cluster-independence assumption. The key idea behind our method is to apply a permutation test to carefully constructed residual estimates that obey the same invariances as the true errors. As a result, our method yields finite-sample valid inferences under a mild "local exchangeability" condition. This condition differs from the typical cluster-independence assumption, as neither assumption implies the other. Furthermore, our method is asymptotically valid under cluster-independence (with no exchangeability assumptions). Together, these results show our method is valid under assumptions that are arguably weaker than the assumptions underlying many classical methods. In experiments on well-studied datasets from the literature, we find that many existing methods produce variance estimates that are up to five times too small, whereas mosaic methods produce reliable results. We implement our methods in the python package mosaicperm.
February 9, 2026 at 3:56 AM
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arXiv📈🤖
Distributed Online Economic Dispatch With Time-Varying Coupled Inequality Constraints
By Zhou, Wang, Li
We investigate the distributed online economic dispatch problem for power systems with time-varying coupled inequality constraints. The problem is formulated as a distributed online optimization problem in a multi-agent system. At each time step, each agent only observes its own instantaneous objective function and local inequality constraints; agents make decisions online and cooperate to minimize the sum of the time-varying objectives while satisfying the global coupled constraints. To solve the problem, we propose an algorithm based on the primal-dual approach combined with constraint-tracking. Under appropriate assumptions that the objective and constraint functions are convex, their gradients are uniformly bounded, and the path length of the optimal solution sequence grows sublinearly, we analyze theoretical properties of the proposed algorithm and prove that both the dynamic regret and the constraint violation are sublinear with time horizon T. Finally, we evaluate the proposed algorithm on a time-varying economic dispatch problem in power systems using both synthetic data and Australian Energy Market data. The results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm performs effectively in terms of tracking performance, constraint satisfaction, and adaptation to time-varying disturbances, thereby providing a practical and theoretically well-supported solution for real-time distributed economic dispatch.
February 9, 2026 at 1:38 AM
paperposterbot.bsky.social
arXiv📈🤖
Estimation of Heterogeneous Treatment Effects Using a Conditional Moment Based Approach
By
arXiv:2210.15829v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We propose a new estimator for heterogeneous treatment effects in a partially linear model (PLM) with multiple exogenous covariates and a potentially endogenous treatment variable. Our approach integrates a Robinson transformation to handle the nonparametric component, the Smooth Minimum Distance (SMD) method to leverage conditional mean independence restrictions, and a Neyman-Orthogonalized first-order condition (FOC). By employing regularized model selection techniques like the Lasso method, our estimator accommodates numerous covariates while exhibiting reduced bias, consistency, and asymptotic normality. Simulations demonstrate its robust performance with diverse instrument sets compared to traditional GMM-type estimators. Applying this method to estimate Medicaid's heterogeneous treatment effects from the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment reveals more robust and reliable results than conventional GMM approaches.
February 8, 2026 at 10:08 PM
paperposterbot.bsky.social
arXiv📈🤖
Flexible Regularized Estimation in High-Dimensional Mixed Membership Models
By
Mixed membership models are an extension of finite mixture models, where each observation can partially belong to more than one mixture component. A probabilistic framework for mixed membership models of high-dimensional continuous data is proposed with a focus on scalability and interpretability. The novel probabilistic representation of mixed membership is based on convex combinations of dependent multivariate Gaussian random vectors. In this setting, scalability is ensured through approximations of a tensor covariance structure through multivariate eigen-approximations with adaptive regularization imposed through shrinkage priors. Conditional weak posterior consistency is established on an unconstrained model, allowing for a simple posterior sampling scheme while keeping many of the desired theoretical properties of our model. The model is motivated by two biomedical case studies: a case study on functional brain imaging of children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and a case study on gene expression data from breast cancer tissue. These applications highlight how the typical assumption made in cluster analysis, that each observation comes from one homogeneous subgroup, may often be restrictive in several applications, leading to unnatural interpretations of data features.
February 8, 2026 at 7:11 PM
paperposterbot.bsky.social
arXiv📈🤖
Synthetic Regressing Control
By Zhu
Estimating weights in the synthetic control method, typically resulting in sparse weights where only a few control units have non-zero weights, involves an optimization procedure that selects and combines control units to closely match the treated unit. However, it is not uncommon for the linear combination of pre-treatment period outcomes for the control units, using nonnegative weights with the constraint that their sum equals one, to inadequately approximate the pre-treatment outcomes for the treated unit. To address the issue, this paper proposes a simple and effective method called Synthetic Regressing Control (SRC). The SRC method begins by performing the univariate linear regression to appropriately align the pre-treatment periods of the control units with the treated unit. Subsequently, a SRC estimator is obtained by synthesizing the regressed controls. To determine the weights in the synthesis procedure, we propose an approach that utilizes a criterion of an unbiased risk estimator. Theoretically, we show that the synthesis way is asymptotically optimal in the sense of achieving the minimum loss of the infeasible best possible synthetic estimator. Extensive numerical experiments highlight the advantages of the SRC method.
February 8, 2026 at 4:09 PM
paperposterbot.bsky.social
arXiv📈🤖
Generalized Optimal Transport
By Voronin
Many causal and structural parameters in economics can be identified and estimated by computing the value of an optimization program over all distributions consistent with the model and the data. Existing tools apply when the data is discrete, or when only disjoint marginals of the distribution are identified, which is restrictive in many applications. We develop a general framework that yields sharp bounds on a linear functional of the unknown true distribution under i) an arbitrary collection of identified joint subdistributions and ii) structural conditions, such as (conditional) independence. We encode the identification restrictions as a continuous collection of moments of characteristic kernels, and use duality and approximation theory to rewrite the infinite-dimensional program over Borel measures as a finite-dimensional program that is simple to compute. Our approach yields a consistent estimator that is $\sqrt{n}$-uniformly valid for the sharp bounds. In the special case of empirical optimal transport with Lipschitz cost, where the minimax rate is $n^{2/d}$, our method yields a uniformly consistent estimator with an asymmetric rate, converging at $\sqrt{n}$ uniformly from one side.
February 8, 2026 at 4:01 AM