Kelly Hereid
@kellyhereid.bsky.social
Climate scientist, geologist, and catastrophe modeler, Liberty Mutual. Posts on all things hurricane, wildfire, flood, earthquake, tornado. Sassy takes are mine not employer's.
📍Oakland, CA
Website: hereidk.strikingly.com
📍Oakland, CA
Website: hereidk.strikingly.com
Pinned
Kelly Hereid
@kellyhereid.bsky.social
· Jun 17
Really excited to share a project we've been working on with Swiss Re, examining challenges to implementing landscape-scale wildfire mitigation and where the insurance industry needs to get creative to crack some roadblocks: www.libertymutualgroup.com/documents/wi... 1/🧵
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
Chicago Fed: Increases in property insurance premiums reduce mortgage originations. A$1,000 increase in insurance premiums increases the probability of mortgage denial by 2.3 percentage points (or 15%) for rate-refinancing mortgages. www.chicagofed.org/publications...
Measuring the Impact of Property Insurance Premiums on the Mortgage Market - Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
www.chicagofed.org
February 9, 2026 at 2:27 PM
Chicago Fed: Increases in property insurance premiums reduce mortgage originations. A$1,000 increase in insurance premiums increases the probability of mortgage denial by 2.3 percentage points (or 15%) for rate-refinancing mortgages. www.chicagofed.org/publications...
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
Fascinating - COVID 19 lockdowns reduced NOx emissions (less car and plane traffic), limiting OH formation and slowing the rate of CH4 removal. This, plus elevated wetland emissions, accounts for the 2020-2022 methane spike.
The Methane spike in the early 2020’s has been explained in two new studies. A combination of weakened atmospheric removal and increased emissions from warming wetlands, rivers, lakes, and agricultural land are to blame.
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
#methane
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
#methane
Why methane surged in the atmosphere during the early 2020s
The atmospheric methane (CH4) growth rate surged after 2019, peaking at 16.2 parts per billion per year (ppb year−1) in 2020 before declining to 8.6 ppb year−1 in 2023. Using multiple atmospheric inve...
www.science.org
February 9, 2026 at 6:14 AM
Fascinating - COVID 19 lockdowns reduced NOx emissions (less car and plane traffic), limiting OH formation and slowing the rate of CH4 removal. This, plus elevated wetland emissions, accounts for the 2020-2022 methane spike.
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
I made a map of 3.4 million Bluesky users - see if you can find yourself!
bluesky-map.theo.io
I've seen some similar projects, but IMO this seems to better capture some of the fine-grained detail
bluesky-map.theo.io
I've seen some similar projects, but IMO this seems to better capture some of the fine-grained detail
Bluesky Map
Interactive map of 3.4 million Bluesky users, visualised by their follower pattern.
bluesky-map.theo.io
February 8, 2026 at 10:59 PM
I made a map of 3.4 million Bluesky users - see if you can find yourself!
bluesky-map.theo.io
I've seen some similar projects, but IMO this seems to better capture some of the fine-grained detail
bluesky-map.theo.io
I've seen some similar projects, but IMO this seems to better capture some of the fine-grained detail
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
Ternary diagram of geoscientists. Where do you fall?
February 9, 2026 at 4:27 AM
Ternary diagram of geoscientists. Where do you fall?
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
This chart. Wow. reportearth.substack.com/p/the-washin... via @chriscmooney.bsky.social
February 8, 2026 at 5:10 PM
This chart. Wow. reportearth.substack.com/p/the-washin... via @chriscmooney.bsky.social
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
Hey there Seattle fans! Your tears of joy this afternoon could be blotted up by tissues erupted out of 3D printed tissue box covers in the shape of your state’s volcanoes! In Seahawk InSAR no less! Only 10 available in my Etsy store and they’ll likely be gone before kickoff!
phaneritic.etsy.com
phaneritic.etsy.com
February 8, 2026 at 8:17 PM
Hey there Seattle fans! Your tears of joy this afternoon could be blotted up by tissues erupted out of 3D printed tissue box covers in the shape of your state’s volcanoes! In Seahawk InSAR no less! Only 10 available in my Etsy store and they’ll likely be gone before kickoff!
phaneritic.etsy.com
phaneritic.etsy.com
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
What an interesting thread. France went all in on nuclear power plants, which are now being displaced by cheaper wind and solar. Ramping nuke plants up/down and turning them on/off puts unexpected wear and tear on pumps, valves, pipes, etc., raising maintenance costs and shortening equipment lives.
France has ended up in a strange position after using some €250bn of tax-payer money to build a fleet of nuclear power stations. Wind and solar power is merrily entering the French power market at prices nuclear production can't match, resulting in huge surpluses of power.
1/
1/
Électricité : un rapport confidentiel d’EDF anticipe une explosion des coûts et des risques
« Le Point » s’est procuré le rapport interne d’EDF sur les conséquences de la modulation de son parc nucléaire pour faire place aux renouvelables. Un document explosif, alors que le gouvernement s’ap...
www.lepoint.fr
February 8, 2026 at 7:33 PM
What an interesting thread. France went all in on nuclear power plants, which are now being displaced by cheaper wind and solar. Ramping nuke plants up/down and turning them on/off puts unexpected wear and tear on pumps, valves, pipes, etc., raising maintenance costs and shortening equipment lives.
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
It’s official! After years of hard work by IPBES experts, the #BizBiodiversity Assessment Report is approved by the Plenary at #IPBES12!
Congratulations to all on this achievement for people and #nature!
Thank you to all who contributed to this successful outcome.
Congratulations to all on this achievement for people and #nature!
Thank you to all who contributed to this successful outcome.
February 8, 2026 at 12:42 PM
It’s official! After years of hard work by IPBES experts, the #BizBiodiversity Assessment Report is approved by the Plenary at #IPBES12!
Congratulations to all on this achievement for people and #nature!
Thank you to all who contributed to this successful outcome.
Congratulations to all on this achievement for people and #nature!
Thank you to all who contributed to this successful outcome.
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
🔥HOT OFF THE PRESS: Why the energy transition is disruptive, non-linear, hard to predict and often faster than expected.
Our paper in Nature Reviews Clean Technology shows how feedback loops create virtuous and vicious cycles that can accelerate or block change. 🧵
www.nature.com/articles/s44...
Our paper in Nature Reviews Clean Technology shows how feedback loops create virtuous and vicious cycles that can accelerate or block change. 🧵
www.nature.com/articles/s44...
February 7, 2026 at 9:01 AM
🔥HOT OFF THE PRESS: Why the energy transition is disruptive, non-linear, hard to predict and often faster than expected.
Our paper in Nature Reviews Clean Technology shows how feedback loops create virtuous and vicious cycles that can accelerate or block change. 🧵
www.nature.com/articles/s44...
Our paper in Nature Reviews Clean Technology shows how feedback loops create virtuous and vicious cycles that can accelerate or block change. 🧵
www.nature.com/articles/s44...
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
🏈 Wildfire plays offense. Your home needs defense.
Firewood stacked against the house, leaves in the gutters, and flammable fences create gaps in your defense. Defensible space closes those gaps by separating fuels and stopping embers before they reach your home.
#SuperBowl #GameDay #Championship
Firewood stacked against the house, leaves in the gutters, and flammable fences create gaps in your defense. Defensible space closes those gaps by separating fuels and stopping embers before they reach your home.
#SuperBowl #GameDay #Championship
February 7, 2026 at 3:02 PM
🏈 Wildfire plays offense. Your home needs defense.
Firewood stacked against the house, leaves in the gutters, and flammable fences create gaps in your defense. Defensible space closes those gaps by separating fuels and stopping embers before they reach your home.
#SuperBowl #GameDay #Championship
Firewood stacked against the house, leaves in the gutters, and flammable fences create gaps in your defense. Defensible space closes those gaps by separating fuels and stopping embers before they reach your home.
#SuperBowl #GameDay #Championship
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
Hey East Bay bike riders, I wanted to share something I've been helping with
The Android/iOS app "Bike Streets" is a navigation app that is built around a network curated by people who actually ride. This means the directions it gives won't throw you onto a terrifying 4-lane road, like Google Maps
The Android/iOS app "Bike Streets" is a navigation app that is built around a network curated by people who actually ride. This means the directions it gives won't throw you onto a terrifying 4-lane road, like Google Maps
February 5, 2026 at 11:30 PM
Hey East Bay bike riders, I wanted to share something I've been helping with
The Android/iOS app "Bike Streets" is a navigation app that is built around a network curated by people who actually ride. This means the directions it gives won't throw you onto a terrifying 4-lane road, like Google Maps
The Android/iOS app "Bike Streets" is a navigation app that is built around a network curated by people who actually ride. This means the directions it gives won't throw you onto a terrifying 4-lane road, like Google Maps
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
“D.C. is battling Washington Gas over its pipelines: when it comes to home electrification, city officials are talking less about fighting climate change. Instead, they’re making a simpler argument in its favor~It’s cheaper than replacing gas pipes.”
51st.news/inside-the-b...
51st.news/inside-the-b...
February 6, 2026 at 11:27 AM
“D.C. is battling Washington Gas over its pipelines: when it comes to home electrification, city officials are talking less about fighting climate change. Instead, they’re making a simpler argument in its favor~It’s cheaper than replacing gas pipes.”
51st.news/inside-the-b...
51st.news/inside-the-b...
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
. @robbieandrew.bsky.social has one with the SSPs at the Global Carbon Project robbieandrew.github.io/GCB2025/
February 5, 2026 at 11:12 PM
. @robbieandrew.bsky.social has one with the SSPs at the Global Carbon Project robbieandrew.github.io/GCB2025/
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
The Post was foolish enough to unleash a bevy of the world’s most talented multi-disciplinary journalists out there for their competition to scoop up. These are some of the most hard working and skilled people I know.
Save this one and reshare it please! 📊
Save this one and reshare it please! 📊
February 5, 2026 at 10:16 PM
The Post was foolish enough to unleash a bevy of the world’s most talented multi-disciplinary journalists out there for their competition to scoop up. These are some of the most hard working and skilled people I know.
Save this one and reshare it please! 📊
Save this one and reshare it please! 📊
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
When my eyes first saw the graph, I thought it was a picture of this year's awful snow/water content of the western US, but then realized it's just a graphic of a major source of funding for my career field that studies things like this year's awful western snows.
February 5, 2026 at 6:30 PM
When my eyes first saw the graph, I thought it was a picture of this year's awful snow/water content of the western US, but then realized it's just a graphic of a major source of funding for my career field that studies things like this year's awful western snows.
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
#nationalweatherpersonsday
Graphic by Jared Rackley
Graphic by Jared Rackley
February 5, 2026 at 3:30 PM
#nationalweatherpersonsday
Graphic by Jared Rackley
Graphic by Jared Rackley
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
I love writing about geeky science that has real-world implications. In this case, a new NOAA index does a more solid job of classifying El Niño and La Niña—and that helps explain some recent puzzling events. @climateconnections.bsky.social
yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/02/a-ne...
yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/02/a-ne...
A new and better way to keep tabs on El Niño and La Niña » Yale Climate Connections
Developed in response to a warming world, NOAA’s revised scale more precisely identifies which episodes are likely to have the biggest impacts.
yaleclimateconnections.org
February 5, 2026 at 6:06 PM
I love writing about geeky science that has real-world implications. In this case, a new NOAA index does a more solid job of classifying El Niño and La Niña—and that helps explain some recent puzzling events. @climateconnections.bsky.social
yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/02/a-ne...
yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/02/a-ne...
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
Given the latest NOAA CBRFC inflow forecast for Lake Powell, I dusted off this plot from my Twitter days and updated it.
The Feb 1st outlook for Colorado River flows hasn't been this poor in >35 years. Even if wetter weather ahead, bottom-10 outcome likely.
h/t @glenwoodrek.bsky.social
The Feb 1st outlook for Colorado River flows hasn't been this poor in >35 years. Even if wetter weather ahead, bottom-10 outcome likely.
h/t @glenwoodrek.bsky.social
February 5, 2026 at 5:08 PM
Given the latest NOAA CBRFC inflow forecast for Lake Powell, I dusted off this plot from my Twitter days and updated it.
The Feb 1st outlook for Colorado River flows hasn't been this poor in >35 years. Even if wetter weather ahead, bottom-10 outcome likely.
h/t @glenwoodrek.bsky.social
The Feb 1st outlook for Colorado River flows hasn't been this poor in >35 years. Even if wetter weather ahead, bottom-10 outcome likely.
h/t @glenwoodrek.bsky.social
This is an absolutely incredible example showing how very detailed migration data can pick up disasters - congrats on a very cool project @gsagostini.bsky.social
MIGRATE is also useful for studying local migration trends. For example, it reveals dramatic rates of out-migration after wildfires in California that are invisible in previous Census datasets. 7/9
February 5, 2026 at 5:36 PM
This is an absolutely incredible example showing how very detailed migration data can pick up disasters - congrats on a very cool project @gsagostini.bsky.social
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
We are excited to see what you do with this data, and hope to build on this work in the future. You can read our full paper at nature.com/articles/s41467-025-68019-2
This is joint work with Rachel Young, Maria Fitzpatrick, @nkgarg.bsky.social, and @emmapierson.bsky.social! 9/9
This is joint work with Rachel Young, Maria Fitzpatrick, @nkgarg.bsky.social, and @emmapierson.bsky.social! 9/9
Inferring fine-grained migration patterns across the United States - Nature Communications
This study releases a very high-resolution migration dataset that reveals trends that shape daily life: rising moves into high-income neighborhoods, racial gaps in upward mobility, and wildfire-driven...
nature.com
February 5, 2026 at 5:30 PM
We are excited to see what you do with this data, and hope to build on this work in the future. You can read our full paper at nature.com/articles/s41467-025-68019-2
This is joint work with Rachel Young, Maria Fitzpatrick, @nkgarg.bsky.social, and @emmapierson.bsky.social! 9/9
This is joint work with Rachel Young, Maria Fitzpatrick, @nkgarg.bsky.social, and @emmapierson.bsky.social! 9/9
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
Our paper “Inferring fine-grained migration patterns across the United States” is now out in @natcomms.nature.com! We released a new, highly granular migration dataset. 1/9
February 5, 2026 at 5:30 PM
Our paper “Inferring fine-grained migration patterns across the United States” is now out in @natcomms.nature.com! We released a new, highly granular migration dataset. 1/9
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
I'm hiring! Come work with me as an Energy Policy Analyst at Gridworks, supporting our work to build a stronger, more equitable, more reliable energy grid in the Western U.S.
This role is remote and open to folks living in MT, WY, ID, UT, AZ, or NV. Details below.
gridworks.org/wp-content/u...
This role is remote and open to folks living in MT, WY, ID, UT, AZ, or NV. Details below.
gridworks.org/wp-content/u...
February 5, 2026 at 3:34 AM
I'm hiring! Come work with me as an Energy Policy Analyst at Gridworks, supporting our work to build a stronger, more equitable, more reliable energy grid in the Western U.S.
This role is remote and open to folks living in MT, WY, ID, UT, AZ, or NV. Details below.
gridworks.org/wp-content/u...
This role is remote and open to folks living in MT, WY, ID, UT, AZ, or NV. Details below.
gridworks.org/wp-content/u...
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
Here's the slide I use when I talk about rising costs in BOTH gas and electricity systems. Capital expended on distribution poles, wires, and pipes is the main cost for utilities and are the main driver of your rapidly growing energy bills. Gas 4X and electricity 2X inflation between 2003 and 2023.
February 4, 2026 at 3:22 PM
Here's the slide I use when I talk about rising costs in BOTH gas and electricity systems. Capital expended on distribution poles, wires, and pipes is the main cost for utilities and are the main driver of your rapidly growing energy bills. Gas 4X and electricity 2X inflation between 2003 and 2023.