Kelly Hereid
@kellyhereid.bsky.social
Climate scientist, geologist, and catastrophe modeler, Liberty Mutual. Posts on all things hurricane, wildfire, flood, earthquake, tornado. Sassy takes are mine not employer's.
📍Oakland, CA
Website: hereidk.strikingly.com
📍Oakland, CA
Website: hereidk.strikingly.com
Pinned
Kelly Hereid
@kellyhereid.bsky.social
· Jun 17
Really excited to share a project we've been working on with Swiss Re, examining challenges to implementing landscape-scale wildfire mitigation and where the insurance industry needs to get creative to crack some roadblocks: www.libertymutualgroup.com/documents/wi... 1/🧵
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
I think I said this a while ago while arguing with people who said that bots can do law / medicine.
The difficulty in practice is not simply knowing the symptoms of a clinical presentation. It is understanding that you have to ask people questions to make sure you understand what is happening.
The difficulty in practice is not simply knowing the symptoms of a clinical presentation. It is understanding that you have to ask people questions to make sure you understand what is happening.
February 9, 2026 at 4:24 PM
I think I said this a while ago while arguing with people who said that bots can do law / medicine.
The difficulty in practice is not simply knowing the symptoms of a clinical presentation. It is understanding that you have to ask people questions to make sure you understand what is happening.
The difficulty in practice is not simply knowing the symptoms of a clinical presentation. It is understanding that you have to ask people questions to make sure you understand what is happening.
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
Grazalema, Spain, received over 2,000 mm (78 inches) of rain in just the last 20 days.
Over a year’s worth of rain — and it’s only early February. This is hydrologically absurd.
Over a year’s worth of rain — and it’s only early February. This is hydrologically absurd.
February 9, 2026 at 4:11 PM
Grazalema, Spain, received over 2,000 mm (78 inches) of rain in just the last 20 days.
Over a year’s worth of rain — and it’s only early February. This is hydrologically absurd.
Over a year’s worth of rain — and it’s only early February. This is hydrologically absurd.
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
Jan is too modest. It's been 5 years since the hydrogen ladder came out. And at least 3 years since his conclusive meta-study of hydrogen studies. We were clear that hydrogen as a fuel was a terrible idea.
Hydrogen promoters owe us billions in wasted money & years we can never recover.
Hydrogen promoters owe us billions in wasted money & years we can never recover.
Using hydrogen as a fuel to replace natural gas has been strongly promoted by vested interest groups.
Many including myself raised serious concerns about scalability, cost and efficiency.
The more time passes, the more it looks like those concerns were well-founded.
Many including myself raised serious concerns about scalability, cost and efficiency.
The more time passes, the more it looks like those concerns were well-founded.
February 10, 2026 at 9:04 AM
Jan is too modest. It's been 5 years since the hydrogen ladder came out. And at least 3 years since his conclusive meta-study of hydrogen studies. We were clear that hydrogen as a fuel was a terrible idea.
Hydrogen promoters owe us billions in wasted money & years we can never recover.
Hydrogen promoters owe us billions in wasted money & years we can never recover.
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
A new preprint article describes a 40-year hindcast archive of U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Storm Surge and Wave from Landfalling Hurricanes: 🌊🧪 ocean2climate.org/2026/02/10/a...
A 40-Year Hindcast Archive of U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Storm Surge and Wave from Landfalling Hurricanes
This blog post and the “Deep Dive” podcast, created by NotebookLM, are based on a preprint article “Tropical cyclone-driven storm surge and wave database for the US North Atlantic and Gulf coastlin…
ocean2climate.org
February 10, 2026 at 12:26 PM
A new preprint article describes a 40-year hindcast archive of U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Storm Surge and Wave from Landfalling Hurricanes: 🌊🧪 ocean2climate.org/2026/02/10/a...
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
Context and quote from me in the this @sltrib.com article.
It should be alarming to anyone in Utah that Rocky Mountain Power/PacifiCorp isn't planning to build any new solar, wind, or battery storage in the next 20 years for Utah. #utpol
It should be alarming to anyone in Utah that Rocky Mountain Power/PacifiCorp isn't planning to build any new solar, wind, or battery storage in the next 20 years for Utah. #utpol
February 10, 2026 at 1:29 AM
Context and quote from me in the this @sltrib.com article.
It should be alarming to anyone in Utah that Rocky Mountain Power/PacifiCorp isn't planning to build any new solar, wind, or battery storage in the next 20 years for Utah. #utpol
It should be alarming to anyone in Utah that Rocky Mountain Power/PacifiCorp isn't planning to build any new solar, wind, or battery storage in the next 20 years for Utah. #utpol
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
Fusion vs fission. It's fusion for the win - with a bit of help from some solar panels, obviously.
February 8, 2026 at 4:27 PM
Fusion vs fission. It's fusion for the win - with a bit of help from some solar panels, obviously.
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
I've written about the "speed of shale" and how since wells are only producing a lot of oil for a few years and can be abandoned after 10, it is a very different approach than with conventional oil production.
One more example. They claim they can extract all of this oil before the next flood.
One more example. They claim they can extract all of this oil before the next flood.
Scary article from @dylanbaddour.bsky.social and @peteraldhous.com
“When they were getting ready to drill there, he said, ‘Please don’t drill them here, it’s a floodplain. They will flood.’ The oil man says, ‘Don’t worry, we’ll have all the oil and gas out of this ground before the next flood.”
“When they were getting ready to drill there, he said, ‘Please don’t drill them here, it’s a floodplain. They will flood.’ The oil man says, ‘Don’t worry, we’ll have all the oil and gas out of this ground before the next flood.”
Fracking boom put oil field in Texas river’s floodplain
Lack of a state floodplain policy enabled oil companies to build in parts of Texas hit by an epic inundation less than 30 years ago.
www.texastribune.org
February 9, 2026 at 4:31 PM
I've written about the "speed of shale" and how since wells are only producing a lot of oil for a few years and can be abandoned after 10, it is a very different approach than with conventional oil production.
One more example. They claim they can extract all of this oil before the next flood.
One more example. They claim they can extract all of this oil before the next flood.
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
Chicago Fed: Increases in property insurance premiums reduce mortgage originations. A$1,000 increase in insurance premiums increases the probability of mortgage denial by 2.3 percentage points (or 15%) for rate-refinancing mortgages. www.chicagofed.org/publications...
Measuring the Impact of Property Insurance Premiums on the Mortgage Market - Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
www.chicagofed.org
February 9, 2026 at 2:27 PM
Chicago Fed: Increases in property insurance premiums reduce mortgage originations. A$1,000 increase in insurance premiums increases the probability of mortgage denial by 2.3 percentage points (or 15%) for rate-refinancing mortgages. www.chicagofed.org/publications...
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
Fascinating - COVID 19 lockdowns reduced NOx emissions (less car and plane traffic), limiting OH formation and slowing the rate of CH4 removal. This, plus elevated wetland emissions, accounts for the 2020-2022 methane spike.
The Methane spike in the early 2020’s has been explained in two new studies. A combination of weakened atmospheric removal and increased emissions from warming wetlands, rivers, lakes, and agricultural land are to blame.
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
#methane
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
#methane
Why methane surged in the atmosphere during the early 2020s
The atmospheric methane (CH4) growth rate surged after 2019, peaking at 16.2 parts per billion per year (ppb year−1) in 2020 before declining to 8.6 ppb year−1 in 2023. Using multiple atmospheric inve...
www.science.org
February 9, 2026 at 6:14 AM
Fascinating - COVID 19 lockdowns reduced NOx emissions (less car and plane traffic), limiting OH formation and slowing the rate of CH4 removal. This, plus elevated wetland emissions, accounts for the 2020-2022 methane spike.
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
I made a map of 3.4 million Bluesky users - see if you can find yourself!
bluesky-map.theo.io
I've seen some similar projects, but IMO this seems to better capture some of the fine-grained detail
bluesky-map.theo.io
I've seen some similar projects, but IMO this seems to better capture some of the fine-grained detail
Bluesky Map
Interactive map of 3.4 million Bluesky users, visualised by their follower pattern.
bluesky-map.theo.io
February 8, 2026 at 10:59 PM
I made a map of 3.4 million Bluesky users - see if you can find yourself!
bluesky-map.theo.io
I've seen some similar projects, but IMO this seems to better capture some of the fine-grained detail
bluesky-map.theo.io
I've seen some similar projects, but IMO this seems to better capture some of the fine-grained detail
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
Ternary diagram of geoscientists. Where do you fall?
February 9, 2026 at 4:27 AM
Ternary diagram of geoscientists. Where do you fall?
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
This chart. Wow. reportearth.substack.com/p/the-washin... via @chriscmooney.bsky.social
February 8, 2026 at 5:10 PM
This chart. Wow. reportearth.substack.com/p/the-washin... via @chriscmooney.bsky.social
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
Hey there Seattle fans! Your tears of joy this afternoon could be blotted up by tissues erupted out of 3D printed tissue box covers in the shape of your state’s volcanoes! In Seahawk InSAR no less! Only 10 available in my Etsy store and they’ll likely be gone before kickoff!
phaneritic.etsy.com
phaneritic.etsy.com
February 8, 2026 at 8:17 PM
Hey there Seattle fans! Your tears of joy this afternoon could be blotted up by tissues erupted out of 3D printed tissue box covers in the shape of your state’s volcanoes! In Seahawk InSAR no less! Only 10 available in my Etsy store and they’ll likely be gone before kickoff!
phaneritic.etsy.com
phaneritic.etsy.com
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
What an interesting thread. France went all in on nuclear power plants, which are now being displaced by cheaper wind and solar. Ramping nuke plants up/down and turning them on/off puts unexpected wear and tear on pumps, valves, pipes, etc., raising maintenance costs and shortening equipment lives.
France has ended up in a strange position after using some €250bn of tax-payer money to build a fleet of nuclear power stations. Wind and solar power is merrily entering the French power market at prices nuclear production can't match, resulting in huge surpluses of power.
1/
1/
Électricité : un rapport confidentiel d’EDF anticipe une explosion des coûts et des risques
« Le Point » s’est procuré le rapport interne d’EDF sur les conséquences de la modulation de son parc nucléaire pour faire place aux renouvelables. Un document explosif, alors que le gouvernement s’ap...
www.lepoint.fr
February 8, 2026 at 7:33 PM
What an interesting thread. France went all in on nuclear power plants, which are now being displaced by cheaper wind and solar. Ramping nuke plants up/down and turning them on/off puts unexpected wear and tear on pumps, valves, pipes, etc., raising maintenance costs and shortening equipment lives.
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
It’s official! After years of hard work by IPBES experts, the #BizBiodiversity Assessment Report is approved by the Plenary at #IPBES12!
Congratulations to all on this achievement for people and #nature!
Thank you to all who contributed to this successful outcome.
Congratulations to all on this achievement for people and #nature!
Thank you to all who contributed to this successful outcome.
February 8, 2026 at 12:42 PM
It’s official! After years of hard work by IPBES experts, the #BizBiodiversity Assessment Report is approved by the Plenary at #IPBES12!
Congratulations to all on this achievement for people and #nature!
Thank you to all who contributed to this successful outcome.
Congratulations to all on this achievement for people and #nature!
Thank you to all who contributed to this successful outcome.
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
🔥HOT OFF THE PRESS: Why the energy transition is disruptive, non-linear, hard to predict and often faster than expected.
Our paper in Nature Reviews Clean Technology shows how feedback loops create virtuous and vicious cycles that can accelerate or block change. 🧵
www.nature.com/articles/s44...
Our paper in Nature Reviews Clean Technology shows how feedback loops create virtuous and vicious cycles that can accelerate or block change. 🧵
www.nature.com/articles/s44...
February 7, 2026 at 9:01 AM
🔥HOT OFF THE PRESS: Why the energy transition is disruptive, non-linear, hard to predict and often faster than expected.
Our paper in Nature Reviews Clean Technology shows how feedback loops create virtuous and vicious cycles that can accelerate or block change. 🧵
www.nature.com/articles/s44...
Our paper in Nature Reviews Clean Technology shows how feedback loops create virtuous and vicious cycles that can accelerate or block change. 🧵
www.nature.com/articles/s44...
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
🏈 Wildfire plays offense. Your home needs defense.
Firewood stacked against the house, leaves in the gutters, and flammable fences create gaps in your defense. Defensible space closes those gaps by separating fuels and stopping embers before they reach your home.
#SuperBowl #GameDay #Championship
Firewood stacked against the house, leaves in the gutters, and flammable fences create gaps in your defense. Defensible space closes those gaps by separating fuels and stopping embers before they reach your home.
#SuperBowl #GameDay #Championship
February 7, 2026 at 3:02 PM
🏈 Wildfire plays offense. Your home needs defense.
Firewood stacked against the house, leaves in the gutters, and flammable fences create gaps in your defense. Defensible space closes those gaps by separating fuels and stopping embers before they reach your home.
#SuperBowl #GameDay #Championship
Firewood stacked against the house, leaves in the gutters, and flammable fences create gaps in your defense. Defensible space closes those gaps by separating fuels and stopping embers before they reach your home.
#SuperBowl #GameDay #Championship
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
Hey East Bay bike riders, I wanted to share something I've been helping with
The Android/iOS app "Bike Streets" is a navigation app that is built around a network curated by people who actually ride. This means the directions it gives won't throw you onto a terrifying 4-lane road, like Google Maps
The Android/iOS app "Bike Streets" is a navigation app that is built around a network curated by people who actually ride. This means the directions it gives won't throw you onto a terrifying 4-lane road, like Google Maps
February 5, 2026 at 11:30 PM
Hey East Bay bike riders, I wanted to share something I've been helping with
The Android/iOS app "Bike Streets" is a navigation app that is built around a network curated by people who actually ride. This means the directions it gives won't throw you onto a terrifying 4-lane road, like Google Maps
The Android/iOS app "Bike Streets" is a navigation app that is built around a network curated by people who actually ride. This means the directions it gives won't throw you onto a terrifying 4-lane road, like Google Maps
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
“D.C. is battling Washington Gas over its pipelines: when it comes to home electrification, city officials are talking less about fighting climate change. Instead, they’re making a simpler argument in its favor~It’s cheaper than replacing gas pipes.”
51st.news/inside-the-b...
51st.news/inside-the-b...
February 6, 2026 at 11:27 AM
“D.C. is battling Washington Gas over its pipelines: when it comes to home electrification, city officials are talking less about fighting climate change. Instead, they’re making a simpler argument in its favor~It’s cheaper than replacing gas pipes.”
51st.news/inside-the-b...
51st.news/inside-the-b...
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
. @robbieandrew.bsky.social has one with the SSPs at the Global Carbon Project robbieandrew.github.io/GCB2025/
February 5, 2026 at 11:12 PM
. @robbieandrew.bsky.social has one with the SSPs at the Global Carbon Project robbieandrew.github.io/GCB2025/
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
The Post was foolish enough to unleash a bevy of the world’s most talented multi-disciplinary journalists out there for their competition to scoop up. These are some of the most hard working and skilled people I know.
Save this one and reshare it please! 📊
Save this one and reshare it please! 📊
February 5, 2026 at 10:16 PM
The Post was foolish enough to unleash a bevy of the world’s most talented multi-disciplinary journalists out there for their competition to scoop up. These are some of the most hard working and skilled people I know.
Save this one and reshare it please! 📊
Save this one and reshare it please! 📊
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
When my eyes first saw the graph, I thought it was a picture of this year's awful snow/water content of the western US, but then realized it's just a graphic of a major source of funding for my career field that studies things like this year's awful western snows.
February 5, 2026 at 6:30 PM
When my eyes first saw the graph, I thought it was a picture of this year's awful snow/water content of the western US, but then realized it's just a graphic of a major source of funding for my career field that studies things like this year's awful western snows.
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
#nationalweatherpersonsday
Graphic by Jared Rackley
Graphic by Jared Rackley
February 5, 2026 at 3:30 PM
#nationalweatherpersonsday
Graphic by Jared Rackley
Graphic by Jared Rackley
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
