Kelly Hereid
@kellyhereid.bsky.social
Climate scientist, geologist, and catastrophe modeler, Liberty Mutual. Posts on all things hurricane, wildfire, flood, earthquake, tornado. Sassy takes are mine not employer's.
📍Oakland, CA
Website: hereidk.strikingly.com
📍Oakland, CA
Website: hereidk.strikingly.com
Pinned
Kelly Hereid
@kellyhereid.bsky.social
· Jun 17
Really excited to share a project we've been working on with Swiss Re, examining challenges to implementing landscape-scale wildfire mitigation and where the insurance industry needs to get creative to crack some roadblocks: www.libertymutualgroup.com/documents/wi... 1/🧵
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
The HuracanPy JOSS paper is officially out! 🌀
If you ever find yourself working with cyclone track data, we hope you'll find it useful! Feel free to contribute suggestions and code!
doi.org/10.21105/jos...
If you ever find yourself working with cyclone track data, we hope you'll find it useful! Feel free to contribute suggestions and code!
doi.org/10.21105/jos...
July 9, 2025 at 2:35 PM
The HuracanPy JOSS paper is officially out! 🌀
If you ever find yourself working with cyclone track data, we hope you'll find it useful! Feel free to contribute suggestions and code!
doi.org/10.21105/jos...
If you ever find yourself working with cyclone track data, we hope you'll find it useful! Feel free to contribute suggestions and code!
doi.org/10.21105/jos...
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
Our new manuscript by Park Williams et al. (2026) is now published:
"The Western United States Large Forest-Fire Stochastic Simulator (WULFFSS) 1.0: a monthly gridded forest-fire model using interpretable statistics": doi.org/10.5194/gmd-...
#westernUS #wildfire
"The Western United States Large Forest-Fire Stochastic Simulator (WULFFSS) 1.0: a monthly gridded forest-fire model using interpretable statistics": doi.org/10.5194/gmd-...
#westernUS #wildfire
The Western United States Large Forest-Fire Stochastic Simulator (WULFFSS) 1.0: a monthly gridded forest-fire model using interpretable statistics
Abstract. We developed the WULFFSS, a stochastic monthly gridded forest-fire model for the western United States (US). Operating at 12 km resolution, WULFFSS calculates monthly probabilities of fires ...
gmd.copernicus.org
February 10, 2026 at 3:25 PM
Our new manuscript by Park Williams et al. (2026) is now published:
"The Western United States Large Forest-Fire Stochastic Simulator (WULFFSS) 1.0: a monthly gridded forest-fire model using interpretable statistics": doi.org/10.5194/gmd-...
#westernUS #wildfire
"The Western United States Large Forest-Fire Stochastic Simulator (WULFFSS) 1.0: a monthly gridded forest-fire model using interpretable statistics": doi.org/10.5194/gmd-...
#westernUS #wildfire
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
I'm Dr. Caroline Juang, and big news is I (finally) started my Postdoctoral Fellowship at NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, CA. Grateful to everyone who made this move possible.
I look forward to collaborating and sharing more research updates as I study California wildfires at JPL!
I look forward to collaborating and sharing more research updates as I study California wildfires at JPL!
February 6, 2026 at 8:49 PM
I'm Dr. Caroline Juang, and big news is I (finally) started my Postdoctoral Fellowship at NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, CA. Grateful to everyone who made this move possible.
I look forward to collaborating and sharing more research updates as I study California wildfires at JPL!
I look forward to collaborating and sharing more research updates as I study California wildfires at JPL!
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
France races to electrify its economy in order to absorb some of the nuclear energy surplus it produces.
France to set out ambitious electrification drive this week
France will set out an ambitious energy plan this week which Prime Minister Sebastian Lecornu said will include doubling the country's energy consumption from electricity to 60% by 2030.
www.reuters.com
February 10, 2026 at 5:32 PM
France races to electrify its economy in order to absorb some of the nuclear energy surplus it produces.
SUPER excited to see this live in the world. In particular hugely admire this team's dedication to openness and transparency about methodology, code, assumptions.
Every tool has strengths and weaknesses, but sharing openly is how the whole community can improve. Big kudos @carbonplan.org
Every tool has strengths and weaknesses, but sharing openly is how the whole community can improve. Big kudos @carbonplan.org
Today we’re launching Open Climate Risk, a fully open option for U.S. building-level climate risk data. It’s unique because it allows you to see not only risk scores, starting with wildfire, but also the complete underlying dataset, methods, and codebase. carbonplan.org/research/cli...
February 10, 2026 at 5:03 PM
SUPER excited to see this live in the world. In particular hugely admire this team's dedication to openness and transparency about methodology, code, assumptions.
Every tool has strengths and weaknesses, but sharing openly is how the whole community can improve. Big kudos @carbonplan.org
Every tool has strengths and weaknesses, but sharing openly is how the whole community can improve. Big kudos @carbonplan.org
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
Had a blast speaking to curler and geologist Derek Leung about the geology of curling rocks. 🥌 🧪
Why curling rocks come from just two spots on Earth
The rocks used in the Olympic sport of curling come from one island in Scotland and one quarry in Wales. What makes them so special?
www.scientificamerican.com
February 10, 2026 at 12:50 PM
Had a blast speaking to curler and geologist Derek Leung about the geology of curling rocks. 🥌 🧪
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
I think I said this a while ago while arguing with people who said that bots can do law / medicine.
The difficulty in practice is not simply knowing the symptoms of a clinical presentation. It is understanding that you have to ask people questions to make sure you understand what is happening.
The difficulty in practice is not simply knowing the symptoms of a clinical presentation. It is understanding that you have to ask people questions to make sure you understand what is happening.
February 9, 2026 at 4:24 PM
I think I said this a while ago while arguing with people who said that bots can do law / medicine.
The difficulty in practice is not simply knowing the symptoms of a clinical presentation. It is understanding that you have to ask people questions to make sure you understand what is happening.
The difficulty in practice is not simply knowing the symptoms of a clinical presentation. It is understanding that you have to ask people questions to make sure you understand what is happening.
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
Grazalema, Spain, received over 2,000 mm (78 inches) of rain in just the last 20 days.
Over a year’s worth of rain — and it’s only early February. This is hydrologically absurd.
Over a year’s worth of rain — and it’s only early February. This is hydrologically absurd.
February 9, 2026 at 4:11 PM
Grazalema, Spain, received over 2,000 mm (78 inches) of rain in just the last 20 days.
Over a year’s worth of rain — and it’s only early February. This is hydrologically absurd.
Over a year’s worth of rain — and it’s only early February. This is hydrologically absurd.
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
Jan is too modest. It's been 5 years since the hydrogen ladder came out. And at least 3 years since his conclusive meta-study of hydrogen studies. We were clear that hydrogen as a fuel was a terrible idea.
Hydrogen promoters owe us billions in wasted money & years we can never recover.
Hydrogen promoters owe us billions in wasted money & years we can never recover.
Using hydrogen as a fuel to replace natural gas has been strongly promoted by vested interest groups.
Many including myself raised serious concerns about scalability, cost and efficiency.
The more time passes, the more it looks like those concerns were well-founded.
Many including myself raised serious concerns about scalability, cost and efficiency.
The more time passes, the more it looks like those concerns were well-founded.
February 10, 2026 at 9:04 AM
Jan is too modest. It's been 5 years since the hydrogen ladder came out. And at least 3 years since his conclusive meta-study of hydrogen studies. We were clear that hydrogen as a fuel was a terrible idea.
Hydrogen promoters owe us billions in wasted money & years we can never recover.
Hydrogen promoters owe us billions in wasted money & years we can never recover.
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
A new preprint article describes a 40-year hindcast archive of U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Storm Surge and Wave from Landfalling Hurricanes: 🌊🧪 ocean2climate.org/2026/02/10/a...
A 40-Year Hindcast Archive of U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Storm Surge and Wave from Landfalling Hurricanes
This blog post and the “Deep Dive” podcast, created by NotebookLM, are based on a preprint article “Tropical cyclone-driven storm surge and wave database for the US North Atlantic and Gulf coastlin…
ocean2climate.org
February 10, 2026 at 12:26 PM
A new preprint article describes a 40-year hindcast archive of U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Storm Surge and Wave from Landfalling Hurricanes: 🌊🧪 ocean2climate.org/2026/02/10/a...
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
Context and quote from me in the this @sltrib.com article.
It should be alarming to anyone in Utah that Rocky Mountain Power/PacifiCorp isn't planning to build any new solar, wind, or battery storage in the next 20 years for Utah. #utpol
It should be alarming to anyone in Utah that Rocky Mountain Power/PacifiCorp isn't planning to build any new solar, wind, or battery storage in the next 20 years for Utah. #utpol
February 10, 2026 at 1:29 AM
Context and quote from me in the this @sltrib.com article.
It should be alarming to anyone in Utah that Rocky Mountain Power/PacifiCorp isn't planning to build any new solar, wind, or battery storage in the next 20 years for Utah. #utpol
It should be alarming to anyone in Utah that Rocky Mountain Power/PacifiCorp isn't planning to build any new solar, wind, or battery storage in the next 20 years for Utah. #utpol
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
Fusion vs fission. It's fusion for the win - with a bit of help from some solar panels, obviously.
February 8, 2026 at 4:27 PM
Fusion vs fission. It's fusion for the win - with a bit of help from some solar panels, obviously.
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
I've written about the "speed of shale" and how since wells are only producing a lot of oil for a few years and can be abandoned after 10, it is a very different approach than with conventional oil production.
One more example. They claim they can extract all of this oil before the next flood.
One more example. They claim they can extract all of this oil before the next flood.
Scary article from @dylanbaddour.bsky.social and @peteraldhous.com
“When they were getting ready to drill there, he said, ‘Please don’t drill them here, it’s a floodplain. They will flood.’ The oil man says, ‘Don’t worry, we’ll have all the oil and gas out of this ground before the next flood.”
“When they were getting ready to drill there, he said, ‘Please don’t drill them here, it’s a floodplain. They will flood.’ The oil man says, ‘Don’t worry, we’ll have all the oil and gas out of this ground before the next flood.”
Fracking boom put oil field in Texas river’s floodplain
Lack of a state floodplain policy enabled oil companies to build in parts of Texas hit by an epic inundation less than 30 years ago.
www.texastribune.org
February 9, 2026 at 4:31 PM
I've written about the "speed of shale" and how since wells are only producing a lot of oil for a few years and can be abandoned after 10, it is a very different approach than with conventional oil production.
One more example. They claim they can extract all of this oil before the next flood.
One more example. They claim they can extract all of this oil before the next flood.
Egregious misuse of the concept of a return period (correctly called out in the piece but also yikes)
February 9, 2026 at 7:55 PM
Egregious misuse of the concept of a return period (correctly called out in the piece but also yikes)
Such a useful reference from @ckousky.bsky.social, I use it all the time to get people up to speed on how that market is structured.
February 9, 2026 at 5:46 PM
Such a useful reference from @ckousky.bsky.social, I use it all the time to get people up to speed on how that market is structured.
Only if that HOA doesn't require me to build with flammable materials in a wildfire zone
February 9, 2026 at 5:45 PM
Only if that HOA doesn't require me to build with flammable materials in a wildfire zone
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
Chicago Fed: Increases in property insurance premiums reduce mortgage originations. A$1,000 increase in insurance premiums increases the probability of mortgage denial by 2.3 percentage points (or 15%) for rate-refinancing mortgages. www.chicagofed.org/publications...
Measuring the Impact of Property Insurance Premiums on the Mortgage Market - Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
www.chicagofed.org
February 9, 2026 at 2:27 PM
Chicago Fed: Increases in property insurance premiums reduce mortgage originations. A$1,000 increase in insurance premiums increases the probability of mortgage denial by 2.3 percentage points (or 15%) for rate-refinancing mortgages. www.chicagofed.org/publications...
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
Fascinating - COVID 19 lockdowns reduced NOx emissions (less car and plane traffic), limiting OH formation and slowing the rate of CH4 removal. This, plus elevated wetland emissions, accounts for the 2020-2022 methane spike.
The Methane spike in the early 2020’s has been explained in two new studies. A combination of weakened atmospheric removal and increased emissions from warming wetlands, rivers, lakes, and agricultural land are to blame.
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
#methane
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
#methane
Why methane surged in the atmosphere during the early 2020s
The atmospheric methane (CH4) growth rate surged after 2019, peaking at 16.2 parts per billion per year (ppb year−1) in 2020 before declining to 8.6 ppb year−1 in 2023. Using multiple atmospheric inve...
www.science.org
February 9, 2026 at 6:14 AM
Fascinating - COVID 19 lockdowns reduced NOx emissions (less car and plane traffic), limiting OH formation and slowing the rate of CH4 removal. This, plus elevated wetland emissions, accounts for the 2020-2022 methane spike.
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
I made a map of 3.4 million Bluesky users - see if you can find yourself!
bluesky-map.theo.io
I've seen some similar projects, but IMO this seems to better capture some of the fine-grained detail
bluesky-map.theo.io
I've seen some similar projects, but IMO this seems to better capture some of the fine-grained detail
Bluesky Map
Interactive map of 3.4 million Bluesky users, visualised by their follower pattern.
bluesky-map.theo.io
February 8, 2026 at 10:59 PM
I made a map of 3.4 million Bluesky users - see if you can find yourself!
bluesky-map.theo.io
I've seen some similar projects, but IMO this seems to better capture some of the fine-grained detail
bluesky-map.theo.io
I've seen some similar projects, but IMO this seems to better capture some of the fine-grained detail
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
Ternary diagram of geoscientists. Where do you fall?
February 9, 2026 at 4:27 AM
Ternary diagram of geoscientists. Where do you fall?
I like how there's a separate little cluster for #energysky
February 9, 2026 at 4:46 AM
I like how there's a separate little cluster for #energysky
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
This chart. Wow. reportearth.substack.com/p/the-washin... via @chriscmooney.bsky.social
February 8, 2026 at 5:10 PM
This chart. Wow. reportearth.substack.com/p/the-washin... via @chriscmooney.bsky.social
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
Hey there Seattle fans! Your tears of joy this afternoon could be blotted up by tissues erupted out of 3D printed tissue box covers in the shape of your state’s volcanoes! In Seahawk InSAR no less! Only 10 available in my Etsy store and they’ll likely be gone before kickoff!
phaneritic.etsy.com
phaneritic.etsy.com
February 8, 2026 at 8:17 PM
Hey there Seattle fans! Your tears of joy this afternoon could be blotted up by tissues erupted out of 3D printed tissue box covers in the shape of your state’s volcanoes! In Seahawk InSAR no less! Only 10 available in my Etsy store and they’ll likely be gone before kickoff!
phaneritic.etsy.com
phaneritic.etsy.com
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
