Kelly Hereid
@kellyhereid.bsky.social
Climate scientist, geologist, and catastrophe modeler, Liberty Mutual. Posts on all things hurricane, wildfire, flood, earthquake, tornado. Sassy takes are mine not employer's.
📍Oakland, CA
Website: hereidk.strikingly.com
📍Oakland, CA
Website: hereidk.strikingly.com
Pinned
Kelly Hereid
@kellyhereid.bsky.social
· Jun 17
Really excited to share a project we've been working on with Swiss Re, examining challenges to implementing landscape-scale wildfire mitigation and where the insurance industry needs to get creative to crack some roadblocks: www.libertymutualgroup.com/documents/wi... 1/🧵
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
. @robbieandrew.bsky.social has one with the SSPs at the Global Carbon Project robbieandrew.github.io/GCB2025/
February 5, 2026 at 11:12 PM
. @robbieandrew.bsky.social has one with the SSPs at the Global Carbon Project robbieandrew.github.io/GCB2025/
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
The Post was foolish enough to unleash a bevy of the world’s most talented multi-disciplinary journalists out there for their competition to scoop up. These are some of the most hard working and skilled people I know.
Save this one and reshare it please! 📊
Save this one and reshare it please! 📊
February 5, 2026 at 10:16 PM
The Post was foolish enough to unleash a bevy of the world’s most talented multi-disciplinary journalists out there for their competition to scoop up. These are some of the most hard working and skilled people I know.
Save this one and reshare it please! 📊
Save this one and reshare it please! 📊
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
When my eyes first saw the graph, I thought it was a picture of this year's awful snow/water content of the western US, but then realized it's just a graphic of a major source of funding for my career field that studies things like this year's awful western snows.
February 5, 2026 at 6:30 PM
When my eyes first saw the graph, I thought it was a picture of this year's awful snow/water content of the western US, but then realized it's just a graphic of a major source of funding for my career field that studies things like this year's awful western snows.
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
#nationalweatherpersonsday
Graphic by Jared Rackley
Graphic by Jared Rackley
February 5, 2026 at 3:30 PM
#nationalweatherpersonsday
Graphic by Jared Rackley
Graphic by Jared Rackley
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
I love writing about geeky science that has real-world implications. In this case, a new NOAA index does a more solid job of classifying El Niño and La Niña—and that helps explain some recent puzzling events. @climateconnections.bsky.social
yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/02/a-ne...
yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/02/a-ne...
A new and better way to keep tabs on El Niño and La Niña » Yale Climate Connections
Developed in response to a warming world, NOAA’s revised scale more precisely identifies which episodes are likely to have the biggest impacts.
yaleclimateconnections.org
February 5, 2026 at 6:06 PM
I love writing about geeky science that has real-world implications. In this case, a new NOAA index does a more solid job of classifying El Niño and La Niña—and that helps explain some recent puzzling events. @climateconnections.bsky.social
yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/02/a-ne...
yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/02/a-ne...
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
Given the latest NOAA CBRFC inflow forecast for Lake Powell, I dusted off this plot from my Twitter days and updated it.
The Feb 1st outlook for Colorado River flows hasn't been this poor in >35 years. Even if wetter weather ahead, bottom-10 outcome likely.
h/t @glenwoodrek.bsky.social
The Feb 1st outlook for Colorado River flows hasn't been this poor in >35 years. Even if wetter weather ahead, bottom-10 outcome likely.
h/t @glenwoodrek.bsky.social
February 5, 2026 at 5:08 PM
Given the latest NOAA CBRFC inflow forecast for Lake Powell, I dusted off this plot from my Twitter days and updated it.
The Feb 1st outlook for Colorado River flows hasn't been this poor in >35 years. Even if wetter weather ahead, bottom-10 outcome likely.
h/t @glenwoodrek.bsky.social
The Feb 1st outlook for Colorado River flows hasn't been this poor in >35 years. Even if wetter weather ahead, bottom-10 outcome likely.
h/t @glenwoodrek.bsky.social
This is an absolutely incredible example showing how very detailed migration data can pick up disasters - congrats on a very cool project @gsagostini.bsky.social
MIGRATE is also useful for studying local migration trends. For example, it reveals dramatic rates of out-migration after wildfires in California that are invisible in previous Census datasets. 7/9
February 5, 2026 at 5:36 PM
This is an absolutely incredible example showing how very detailed migration data can pick up disasters - congrats on a very cool project @gsagostini.bsky.social
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
We are excited to see what you do with this data, and hope to build on this work in the future. You can read our full paper at nature.com/articles/s41467-025-68019-2
This is joint work with Rachel Young, Maria Fitzpatrick, @nkgarg.bsky.social, and @emmapierson.bsky.social! 9/9
This is joint work with Rachel Young, Maria Fitzpatrick, @nkgarg.bsky.social, and @emmapierson.bsky.social! 9/9
Inferring fine-grained migration patterns across the United States - Nature Communications
This study releases a very high-resolution migration dataset that reveals trends that shape daily life: rising moves into high-income neighborhoods, racial gaps in upward mobility, and wildfire-driven...
nature.com
February 5, 2026 at 5:30 PM
We are excited to see what you do with this data, and hope to build on this work in the future. You can read our full paper at nature.com/articles/s41467-025-68019-2
This is joint work with Rachel Young, Maria Fitzpatrick, @nkgarg.bsky.social, and @emmapierson.bsky.social! 9/9
This is joint work with Rachel Young, Maria Fitzpatrick, @nkgarg.bsky.social, and @emmapierson.bsky.social! 9/9
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
Our paper “Inferring fine-grained migration patterns across the United States” is now out in @natcomms.nature.com! We released a new, highly granular migration dataset. 1/9
February 5, 2026 at 5:30 PM
Our paper “Inferring fine-grained migration patterns across the United States” is now out in @natcomms.nature.com! We released a new, highly granular migration dataset. 1/9
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
I'm hiring! Come work with me as an Energy Policy Analyst at Gridworks, supporting our work to build a stronger, more equitable, more reliable energy grid in the Western U.S.
This role is remote and open to folks living in MT, WY, ID, UT, AZ, or NV. Details below.
gridworks.org/wp-content/u...
This role is remote and open to folks living in MT, WY, ID, UT, AZ, or NV. Details below.
gridworks.org/wp-content/u...
February 5, 2026 at 3:34 AM
I'm hiring! Come work with me as an Energy Policy Analyst at Gridworks, supporting our work to build a stronger, more equitable, more reliable energy grid in the Western U.S.
This role is remote and open to folks living in MT, WY, ID, UT, AZ, or NV. Details below.
gridworks.org/wp-content/u...
This role is remote and open to folks living in MT, WY, ID, UT, AZ, or NV. Details below.
gridworks.org/wp-content/u...
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
Here's the slide I use when I talk about rising costs in BOTH gas and electricity systems. Capital expended on distribution poles, wires, and pipes is the main cost for utilities and are the main driver of your rapidly growing energy bills. Gas 4X and electricity 2X inflation between 2003 and 2023.
February 4, 2026 at 3:22 PM
Here's the slide I use when I talk about rising costs in BOTH gas and electricity systems. Capital expended on distribution poles, wires, and pipes is the main cost for utilities and are the main driver of your rapidly growing energy bills. Gas 4X and electricity 2X inflation between 2003 and 2023.
WaPo layoffs are tragic. This, however, is some excellent shade.
🎁 link: www.nytimes.com/2026/02/04/b...
🎁 link: www.nytimes.com/2026/02/04/b...
February 4, 2026 at 2:56 PM
WaPo layoffs are tragic. This, however, is some excellent shade.
🎁 link: www.nytimes.com/2026/02/04/b...
🎁 link: www.nytimes.com/2026/02/04/b...
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
We all have an "antilibrary." You know, the stack of yet-unread books we might never read. Here is Umberto Eco's wonderful and counterintuitive take on why that unread stack might be as essential for our inner lives as the read www.themarginalian.org/2015/03/24/u...
Umberto Eco’s Antilibrary: Why Unread Books Are More Valuable to Our Lives than Read Ones
How to become an “antischolar” in a culture that treats knowledge as “an ornament that allows us to rise in the pecking order.”
www.themarginalian.org
February 4, 2026 at 1:03 PM
We all have an "antilibrary." You know, the stack of yet-unread books we might never read. Here is Umberto Eco's wonderful and counterintuitive take on why that unread stack might be as essential for our inner lives as the read www.themarginalian.org/2015/03/24/u...
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
Sitting in a Canadian catastrophe conference, and hearing an eerily familiar refrain from what many of us are saying across the border in the US:
"Earthquake insurance penetration rates for homeowners are shockingly low. When the next 'big one' hits, a huge portion of damage will be uninsured."
"Earthquake insurance penetration rates for homeowners are shockingly low. When the next 'big one' hits, a huge portion of damage will be uninsured."
February 3, 2026 at 6:33 PM
Sitting in a Canadian catastrophe conference, and hearing an eerily familiar refrain from what many of us are saying across the border in the US:
"Earthquake insurance penetration rates for homeowners are shockingly low. When the next 'big one' hits, a huge portion of damage will be uninsured."
"Earthquake insurance penetration rates for homeowners are shockingly low. When the next 'big one' hits, a huge portion of damage will be uninsured."
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
The western U.S. faces its lowest snowpack on record despite average or above-average rainfall. Warmer temperatures mean more precipitation falls as rain rather than snow, and will worsen droughts in areas like the Pacific Northwest and the Colorado River Basin.
science.nasa.gov/earth/earth-...
science.nasa.gov/earth/earth-...
February 3, 2026 at 6:27 AM
The western U.S. faces its lowest snowpack on record despite average or above-average rainfall. Warmer temperatures mean more precipitation falls as rain rather than snow, and will worsen droughts in areas like the Pacific Northwest and the Colorado River Basin.
science.nasa.gov/earth/earth-...
science.nasa.gov/earth/earth-...
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
If you're interested in how ice sheets respond to climate, particularly over very long timescales, you might be interested in our new (open access) paper:
www.nature.com/articles/s43...
www.nature.com/articles/s43...
February 3, 2026 at 8:43 AM
If you're interested in how ice sheets respond to climate, particularly over very long timescales, you might be interested in our new (open access) paper:
www.nature.com/articles/s43...
www.nature.com/articles/s43...
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
Recent assessments have found the last glacial maximum implies a climate sensitivity of 2.4C (1.4C to 5.0C): www.science.org/doi/...
And the Pliocene implies a sensitivity of 3.1C (2.3C to 4.7C): www.pnas.org/doi/10....
Paleoclimate evidence generally provides the strongest constraint on high ECS.
And the Pliocene implies a sensitivity of 3.1C (2.3C to 4.7C): www.pnas.org/doi/10....
Paleoclimate evidence generally provides the strongest constraint on high ECS.
February 2, 2026 at 6:51 PM
Recent assessments have found the last glacial maximum implies a climate sensitivity of 2.4C (1.4C to 5.0C): www.science.org/doi/...
And the Pliocene implies a sensitivity of 3.1C (2.3C to 4.7C): www.pnas.org/doi/10....
Paleoclimate evidence generally provides the strongest constraint on high ECS.
And the Pliocene implies a sensitivity of 3.1C (2.3C to 4.7C): www.pnas.org/doi/10....
Paleoclimate evidence generally provides the strongest constraint on high ECS.
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
🌟OPEN ACCESS🌟 In a new #SRL paper, a team of scientists analyzed more than 1,000 small to moderate magnitude earthquakes in eastern Oklahoma spanning June 2019 to June 2022, and considered the relationship to hydraulic fracturing and wastewater disposal. ⚒️
buff.ly/oy6Mh1B
buff.ly/oy6Mh1B
February 3, 2026 at 3:00 AM
🌟OPEN ACCESS🌟 In a new #SRL paper, a team of scientists analyzed more than 1,000 small to moderate magnitude earthquakes in eastern Oklahoma spanning June 2019 to June 2022, and considered the relationship to hydraulic fracturing and wastewater disposal. ⚒️
buff.ly/oy6Mh1B
buff.ly/oy6Mh1B
At times I am reminded of the incredible sacrifice @costasamaras.com made in giving up poasting to serve in a federal role.
Truly we can never repay our public sector for their dedication.
Truly we can never repay our public sector for their dedication.
is this blueskyism?
I regret to inform you that “1979” by Smashing Pumpkins was released in 1996, which is now 30 years ago. Meaning a similar song released in 2026 would be called “2009”
February 3, 2026 at 3:03 AM
At times I am reminded of the incredible sacrifice @costasamaras.com made in giving up poasting to serve in a federal role.
Truly we can never repay our public sector for their dedication.
Truly we can never repay our public sector for their dedication.
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
🚨Our new paper led by Dr. @zialyle.bsky.social looked at how climate change poses risks to US drinking water utilities & if their bonds disclose these risks to investors. Utilities serving 67 million people have high risks, but 36% of their bonds don't mention climate: www.nature.com/articles/s43...
Climate change risk index and municipal bond disclosures of United States drinking water utilities - Communications Earth & Environment
67 million customers across the US rely on drinking water utilities that face higher climate risk than accounted for, which exposes major gaps in climate adaptation and resilience planning, suggests a...
www.nature.com
February 3, 2026 at 1:06 AM
🚨Our new paper led by Dr. @zialyle.bsky.social looked at how climate change poses risks to US drinking water utilities & if their bonds disclose these risks to investors. Utilities serving 67 million people have high risks, but 36% of their bonds don't mention climate: www.nature.com/articles/s43...
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
Absolutely gorgeous essayWorth a read (via @drnoble@mastodon.scot) by @tg that starts with why RSS clients look like email, but moves into SoMe and how we imported anxiety without cause.
Via @kottke
www.terrygodier.com/phantom-obli...
#design #ui #rss
Via @kottke
www.terrygodier.com/phantom-obli...
#design #ui #rss
Phantom Obligation | Terry Godier
Why RSS readers look like email clients, and what that's doing to us.
www.terrygodier.com
February 2, 2026 at 10:28 AM
Absolutely gorgeous essayWorth a read (via @drnoble@mastodon.scot) by @tg that starts with why RSS clients look like email, but moves into SoMe and how we imported anxiety without cause.
Via @kottke
www.terrygodier.com/phantom-obli...
#design #ui #rss
Via @kottke
www.terrygodier.com/phantom-obli...
#design #ui #rss
This was one of my favorite #AGU25 talks this year
New paper looks into "The debt burden of tropical cyclones and climate change"
=> across all TC-exposed countries, debt-to-GDP ratios are on average 30% higher due to the cumulative effects of TCs since 1990, while GDP levels are on average 10% lower
eartharxiv.org/repository/v...
=> across all TC-exposed countries, debt-to-GDP ratios are on average 30% higher due to the cumulative effects of TCs since 1990, while GDP levels are on average 10% lower
eartharxiv.org/repository/v...
The debt burden of tropical cyclones and climate change
eartharxiv.org
February 2, 2026 at 11:37 AM
This was one of my favorite #AGU25 talks this year
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
Dramatic imagery from SDO showing the recent X8.1 flare from AR 4366, the third strongest solar flare of Solar Cycle 25. A CME was launched which may have Earth-directed components...
February 2, 2026 at 12:39 AM
Dramatic imagery from SDO showing the recent X8.1 flare from AR 4366, the third strongest solar flare of Solar Cycle 25. A CME was launched which may have Earth-directed components...
Reposted by Kelly Hereid
Are green firebreaks a useful fire management tool under climate change in southeastern Australia?
TLDR: yes, in many scenarios, especially when used in conjunction with other fire mitigation measures
by @ericamarshall.bsky.social @trentpenman.bsky.social
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
TLDR: yes, in many scenarios, especially when used in conjunction with other fire mitigation measures
by @ericamarshall.bsky.social @trentpenman.bsky.social
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Are green firebreaks a useful fire management tool under climate change in southeastern Australia?
Fire management under changing climatic conditions presents several challenges, including the need to manage fire regimes for multiple objectives, suc…
www.sciencedirect.com
February 1, 2026 at 7:17 AM
Are green firebreaks a useful fire management tool under climate change in southeastern Australia?
TLDR: yes, in many scenarios, especially when used in conjunction with other fire mitigation measures
by @ericamarshall.bsky.social @trentpenman.bsky.social
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
TLDR: yes, in many scenarios, especially when used in conjunction with other fire mitigation measures
by @ericamarshall.bsky.social @trentpenman.bsky.social
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...