Karl Rohe
@karlrohe.bsky.social
NO KINGS
“Overly optimistic” 🦮 in Statistics.
Listening in statistics.
Statistics Professor at UW Madison.
“Overly optimistic” 🦮 in Statistics.
Listening in statistics.
Statistics Professor at UW Madison.
claude, what the heck
November 10, 2025 at 11:06 PM
claude, what the heck
A conversation I had with Claude about extrapolating enmeshment to cultural and political scenarios, whether it applies to Trump supporters, and paths forward.
claude.ai/share/92446e...
claude.ai/share/92446e...
Political enmeshment and cultural wounds
Shared via Claude, an AI assistant from Anthropic
claude.ai
November 2, 2025 at 12:03 PM
A conversation I had with Claude about extrapolating enmeshment to cultural and political scenarios, whether it applies to Trump supporters, and paths forward.
claude.ai/share/92446e...
claude.ai/share/92446e...
Reposted by Karl Rohe
ABANDONED THE TODDLER IN THE BACKSEAT
Arrest these motherfuckers for child endangerment
Arrest these motherfuckers for child endangerment
Multiple accounts on ICE Watch Facebook pages are reporting that agents pulled a couple out of their vehicle in Aurora, Illinois, arrested them, and then abandoned the couple’s toddler in the backseat.
October 30, 2025 at 6:04 PM
ABANDONED THE TODDLER IN THE BACKSEAT
Arrest these motherfuckers for child endangerment
Arrest these motherfuckers for child endangerment
i got claude code to swear!
October 28, 2025 at 5:55 PM
i got claude code to swear!
Sometimes we don’t yet know the question. That doesn’t mean our curiosity isn’t part of science!
It’s astonishing how many researchers seem to believe that a cluster analysis is such a sensible analysis that it needn’t even be justified through a coherent research question. Just cluster analysis go brrrrr
October 28, 2025 at 1:21 PM
Sometimes we don’t yet know the question. That doesn’t mean our curiosity isn’t part of science!
Causality is a model
October 18, 2025 at 1:28 PM
Causality is a model
Reposted by Karl Rohe
But they can be much heavier.
October 17, 2025 at 1:01 PM
But they can be much heavier.
Me: Eli, what do you want in your lunch this week
Eli (age 3): ordinary demigods
Eli (age 3): ordinary demigods
October 12, 2025 at 7:44 PM
Me: Eli, what do you want in your lunch this week
Eli (age 3): ordinary demigods
Eli (age 3): ordinary demigods
Reposted by Karl Rohe
I believe science is much more like art than many scientists are willing to consider. I have a feeling that it would free us to do better science if we embraced this view. I may be mistaken but that's where I am mentally.
October 9, 2025 at 3:14 PM
I believe science is much more like art than many scientists are willing to consider. I have a feeling that it would free us to do better science if we embraced this view. I may be mistaken but that's where I am mentally.
Reposted by Karl Rohe
If their response is worse than Sonnets, then they should lose their jobs. Already it is too late. This should take 20 minutes.
October 2, 2025 at 1:03 PM
If their response is worse than Sonnets, then they should lose their jobs. Already it is too late. This should take 20 minutes.
Reposted by Karl Rohe
(bluesky user bursts into Waffle House) OH SO YOU HATE PANCAKES??
September 26, 2025 at 3:09 PM
(bluesky user bursts into Waffle House) OH SO YOU HATE PANCAKES??
What if, bear with me… fevers in pregnancy were bad. Then, we might only identify these cases by who took acetaminophen. If that were true (just my hypothetical)… but it strikes me that this would be confusing for bad statisticians
September 23, 2025 at 12:01 PM
What if, bear with me… fevers in pregnancy were bad. Then, we might only identify these cases by who took acetaminophen. If that were true (just my hypothetical)… but it strikes me that this would be confusing for bad statisticians
advice from LLM: "You won't regret this at all - it's the textbook solution for development databases with schema issues!"
should i believe it? lol
should i believe it? lol
September 22, 2025 at 9:44 PM
advice from LLM: "You won't regret this at all - it's the textbook solution for development databases with schema issues!"
should i believe it? lol
should i believe it? lol
to do good science, you need to fall in love with your dreams.
everyone always emphasizes the flip side of rationality, which is also kinda true. but the reviewers help you with that. your reviewers can't fall in love for you. and if you aren't falling in love, then stop.
everyone always emphasizes the flip side of rationality, which is also kinda true. but the reviewers help you with that. your reviewers can't fall in love for you. and if you aren't falling in love, then stop.
September 19, 2025 at 5:27 PM
to do good science, you need to fall in love with your dreams.
everyone always emphasizes the flip side of rationality, which is also kinda true. but the reviewers help you with that. your reviewers can't fall in love for you. and if you aren't falling in love, then stop.
everyone always emphasizes the flip side of rationality, which is also kinda true. but the reviewers help you with that. your reviewers can't fall in love for you. and if you aren't falling in love, then stop.
“Duty to shareholders” becomes exceptionally weird when that duty requires sucking up to Trump. Like all those CEOs fawning over him. It’s arguably their job to do that? But it plays very differently in the press and for public opinion.
September 18, 2025 at 9:09 PM
“Duty to shareholders” becomes exceptionally weird when that duty requires sucking up to Trump. Like all those CEOs fawning over him. It’s arguably their job to do that? But it plays very differently in the press and for public opinion.
Half baked thought: communication is always a weird crazy strong bottleneck. So, us sending a little text off to a data center for massive calculations and the text center sending a little text back is like way way off the charts on some metric of ratio between total computation and communication.
September 17, 2025 at 3:51 PM
Half baked thought: communication is always a weird crazy strong bottleneck. So, us sending a little text off to a data center for massive calculations and the text center sending a little text back is like way way off the charts on some metric of ratio between total computation and communication.
“Non-linear” is the first word people say before they go off the methodological deep end
September 14, 2025 at 1:27 PM
“Non-linear” is the first word people say before they go off the methodological deep end
Reposted by Karl Rohe
My quote of the day
What is objectionable, what is dangerous about extremists, is not that they are extreme, but that they are intolerant. The evil is not what they say about their cause, but what they say about their opponents.
Robert F. Kennedy, Sr.
What is objectionable, what is dangerous about extremists, is not that they are extreme, but that they are intolerant. The evil is not what they say about their cause, but what they say about their opponents.
Robert F. Kennedy, Sr.
September 13, 2025 at 11:59 AM
My quote of the day
What is objectionable, what is dangerous about extremists, is not that they are extreme, but that they are intolerant. The evil is not what they say about their cause, but what they say about their opponents.
Robert F. Kennedy, Sr.
What is objectionable, what is dangerous about extremists, is not that they are extreme, but that they are intolerant. The evil is not what they say about their cause, but what they say about their opponents.
Robert F. Kennedy, Sr.
Is 9/11 now liberal coded? Or is it just me?
September 11, 2025 at 9:27 PM
Is 9/11 now liberal coded? Or is it just me?
When I was a kid, I had a hard time believing that The Emperor’s New Clothes spoke to a real thing that could ever happen, like ever anywhere in history.
September 8, 2025 at 12:12 PM
When I was a kid, I had a hard time believing that The Emperor’s New Clothes spoke to a real thing that could ever happen, like ever anywhere in history.
half finished thought...
an advantage that engineers have is that no one questions the "constructivist" nature of their work... like clearly they create it. very deliberately engineered.
an advantage that engineers have is that no one questions the "constructivist" nature of their work... like clearly they create it. very deliberately engineered.
September 5, 2025 at 6:36 PM
half finished thought...
an advantage that engineers have is that no one questions the "constructivist" nature of their work... like clearly they create it. very deliberately engineered.
an advantage that engineers have is that no one questions the "constructivist" nature of their work... like clearly they create it. very deliberately engineered.
“Karl, why do you have such a bad impression of Causal Inference™?”
We didn't randomize, and there was no allocation concealment or blinding, and we can't really be sure what intervention they got or how the outcomes were measured, but we emulated a trial by drawing a DAG.
August 31, 2025 at 3:25 PM
“Karl, why do you have such a bad impression of Causal Inference™?”
Reposted by Karl Rohe
Somebody once said that part of the pleasure in buying a book is the mistaken belief that you're also buying the free time in which to read it...
Just sayin'
Just sayin'
August 28, 2025 at 3:15 AM
Somebody once said that part of the pleasure in buying a book is the mistaken belief that you're also buying the free time in which to read it...
Just sayin'
Just sayin'
Reposted by Karl Rohe
It was and remains a very curious feature of the US presidential election that it was fairly transparently a "sufficiently many voters are mad about inflation" election but it was treated as a huge Zeitgeist Shift by both proponents and opponents of Trump. This led to some over-confidence from Trump
NEW RESULT: Democrats have flipped a state Senate in Iowa.
This was a seat Trump carried by 11%, but Democratic nominee Catherine Drey has just won it by 10.4%.
This is the second legislative flip by Dems in Iowa this year. It also means the GOP loses its supermajority in Iowa’s senate.
This was a seat Trump carried by 11%, but Democratic nominee Catherine Drey has just won it by 10.4%.
This is the second legislative flip by Dems in Iowa this year. It also means the GOP loses its supermajority in Iowa’s senate.
August 27, 2025 at 6:57 AM
It was and remains a very curious feature of the US presidential election that it was fairly transparently a "sufficiently many voters are mad about inflation" election but it was treated as a huge Zeitgeist Shift by both proponents and opponents of Trump. This led to some over-confidence from Trump
Is it a confounder or a proxy?
August 27, 2025 at 12:11 PM
Is it a confounder or a proxy?