gelbach
@gelbach.bsky.social
expert provider of lay opinions
Reposted by gelbach
Some thoughts on the CR/minibus.
1 The Dems negotiating with Rs were not freelancing. They coordinated with Sen Schumer. A few were ready to give in on day one, others worked to maximize appropriations wins.
Those voting for the 'deal' are the ones furthest away from electoral consequences.
1 The Dems negotiating with Rs were not freelancing. They coordinated with Sen Schumer. A few were ready to give in on day one, others worked to maximize appropriations wins.
Those voting for the 'deal' are the ones furthest away from electoral consequences.
November 10, 2025 at 1:45 PM
Some thoughts on the CR/minibus.
1 The Dems negotiating with Rs were not freelancing. They coordinated with Sen Schumer. A few were ready to give in on day one, others worked to maximize appropriations wins.
Those voting for the 'deal' are the ones furthest away from electoral consequences.
1 The Dems negotiating with Rs were not freelancing. They coordinated with Sen Schumer. A few were ready to give in on day one, others worked to maximize appropriations wins.
Those voting for the 'deal' are the ones furthest away from electoral consequences.
Reposted by gelbach
13) I think Dem leadership still suffers from frame drag. They think it's the 90s. Trump is dismantling the powers of Congress. They have to rise to that moment and demand big things.
Vought is expanding the playing field to thinks off the table. Dems need to do the same.
###
Vought is expanding the playing field to thinks off the table. Dems need to do the same.
###
November 10, 2025 at 2:03 PM
13) I think Dem leadership still suffers from frame drag. They think it's the 90s. Trump is dismantling the powers of Congress. They have to rise to that moment and demand big things.
Vought is expanding the playing field to thinks off the table. Dems need to do the same.
###
Vought is expanding the playing field to thinks off the table. Dems need to do the same.
###
Reposted by gelbach
12) With the way the CR/minibus fight ended, real doubts about whether the Dems are smart... at least their leadership. Republicans negotiated good cop, bad cop, crazy cop.
What was the Dem ldrship negotiating strategy? Pretend to be one way to the public and another in private. Not good.
What was the Dem ldrship negotiating strategy? Pretend to be one way to the public and another in private. Not good.
November 10, 2025 at 2:02 PM
12) With the way the CR/minibus fight ended, real doubts about whether the Dems are smart... at least their leadership. Republicans negotiated good cop, bad cop, crazy cop.
What was the Dem ldrship negotiating strategy? Pretend to be one way to the public and another in private. Not good.
What was the Dem ldrship negotiating strategy? Pretend to be one way to the public and another in private. Not good.
Reposted by gelbach
7) If it were me, I wouldn't agree to fund the FSGG approps bill that funds the WH/OMB without policy riders that take away the administration's funding to pursue things like impoundment, etc. Why should Russ Vought have any staff? Saying "no" here is a policy win. If they do it.
November 10, 2025 at 1:55 PM
7) If it were me, I wouldn't agree to fund the FSGG approps bill that funds the WH/OMB without policy riders that take away the administration's funding to pursue things like impoundment, etc. Why should Russ Vought have any staff? Saying "no" here is a policy win. If they do it.
Reposted by gelbach
We know this because he told us.
The reality is the government was shut down the first day Trump entered office. We just didn't talk about it that way.
The only real leverage Dems had is on appropriations. Schumer screwed that up in February/March for FY 26. It imperiled his political support.
The reality is the government was shut down the first day Trump entered office. We just didn't talk about it that way.
The only real leverage Dems had is on appropriations. Schumer screwed that up in February/March for FY 26. It imperiled his political support.
November 10, 2025 at 1:50 PM
We know this because he told us.
The reality is the government was shut down the first day Trump entered office. We just didn't talk about it that way.
The only real leverage Dems had is on appropriations. Schumer screwed that up in February/March for FY 26. It imperiled his political support.
The reality is the government was shut down the first day Trump entered office. We just didn't talk about it that way.
The only real leverage Dems had is on appropriations. Schumer screwed that up in February/March for FY 26. It imperiled his political support.
absolutely no question in my mind he's married to a chatbot
Gushing over mystery wife
November 11, 2025 at 3:32 AM
Reposted by gelbach
In a single day, two different federal officers point guns at two different @chicagotribune.com photojournalists in and around Chicago. This is dangerous stuff.
1/2 Are there any experts out there who can correctly identify the weapons being pointed directly at these two @chicagotribune.com photojournalists?
What type of gun is this?
cc: @mandophotos.bsky.social
What type of gun is this?
cc: @mandophotos.bsky.social
November 11, 2025 at 1:58 AM
In a single day, two different federal officers point guns at two different @chicagotribune.com photojournalists in and around Chicago. This is dangerous stuff.
🤯
okay, but hear me out: What if we put health insurance *on the blockchain?*
November 11, 2025 at 1:07 AM
🤯
Reposted by gelbach
Wow, very weird, the guy who told Trump that he found cases where his political enemies have committed fraud and it turns out to be untrue is full of shit in other areas also.
November 11, 2025 at 12:49 AM
Wow, very weird, the guy who told Trump that he found cases where his political enemies have committed fraud and it turns out to be untrue is full of shit in other areas also.
Reposted by gelbach
A few years ago there was a terrible Gen Z tweet everyone dunked on about how people should get their car insurance payments back if they don’t use it. Anyway it’s fun to discover this is now the stated position of the GOP
November 10, 2025 at 4:36 PM
A few years ago there was a terrible Gen Z tweet everyone dunked on about how people should get their car insurance payments back if they don’t use it. Anyway it’s fun to discover this is now the stated position of the GOP
Reposted by gelbach
Words that @schumer.senate.gov @chuckschumer.com has felt no need to live by this year —>
The sooner we get past internal recriminations and back to fighting united, the better off we all are — the likelier our victory next November.
November 11, 2025 at 12:18 AM
Words that @schumer.senate.gov @chuckschumer.com has felt no need to live by this year —>
Reposted by gelbach
The number of violent attacks by illegal West Bank squatters in Oct was the highest since the UN began collecting data in Jan 2006. Jewish settlers launched an average of more than 8 daily attacks on Palestinians and their property last month. Since the start of the year, 1,500 have been recorded.
West Bank violence isn't 'friction' but one-sided settler pogroms against Palestinians
The IDF, as the Sovereign in the Occupied Territories, Must Protect All Victims of Violence, Including Palestinians, From Jewish Terror. Government Backing of Rioters Does Not Absolve the Army of This...
www.haaretz.com
November 11, 2025 at 12:10 AM
The number of violent attacks by illegal West Bank squatters in Oct was the highest since the UN began collecting data in Jan 2006. Jewish settlers launched an average of more than 8 daily attacks on Palestinians and their property last month. Since the start of the year, 1,500 have been recorded.
Reposted by gelbach
Don’t be too hard on yourself if you fall for a viral fake about Trump.
Trump tweeted an AI video of himself dropping literal shit on protesters and another about a bed that cures all disease.
Our current reality is beyond parody and it takes time to research whether something is authentic or not.
Trump tweeted an AI video of himself dropping literal shit on protesters and another about a bed that cures all disease.
Our current reality is beyond parody and it takes time to research whether something is authentic or not.
November 11, 2025 at 12:18 AM
Don’t be too hard on yourself if you fall for a viral fake about Trump.
Trump tweeted an AI video of himself dropping literal shit on protesters and another about a bed that cures all disease.
Our current reality is beyond parody and it takes time to research whether something is authentic or not.
Trump tweeted an AI video of himself dropping literal shit on protesters and another about a bed that cures all disease.
Our current reality is beyond parody and it takes time to research whether something is authentic or not.
Reposted by gelbach
Exactly five years ago—the news that kindled hope amidst the pandemic's despair.
November 10, 2025 at 11:39 PM
Exactly five years ago—the news that kindled hope amidst the pandemic's despair.
Reposted by gelbach
"I really went to a dark place when they sent the troops to [Los Angeles], and then eventually [Washington, D.C.], and now, Chicago. This is just not what any of us signed up for, and it's so out of the scope of normal operations," says J, a member of the Ohio National Guard.
In an encrypted group chat, Ohio National Guard members question Trump deployments
In an encrypted group chat, Ohio National Guard members question Trump deployments
As President Trump's call for National Guard deployments rings out across the U.S., a small contingent of Ohio guard members is quietly expressing concern in an encrypted group chat.
www.wosu.org
November 10, 2025 at 9:21 PM
"I really went to a dark place when they sent the troops to [Los Angeles], and then eventually [Washington, D.C.], and now, Chicago. This is just not what any of us signed up for, and it's so out of the scope of normal operations," says J, a member of the Ohio National Guard.
Reposted by gelbach
President Trump blocked food assistance for over a week — then tried to punish states for feeding hungry Americans.
This is great news and I’m grateful to AG Campbell and her team. SNAP benefits are still going out. If you have funds on your EBT card, use them.
This is great news and I’m grateful to AG Campbell and her team. SNAP benefits are still going out. If you have funds on your EBT card, use them.
A federal judge just granted our motion to temporarily block the Trump Administration from ordering states to claw back full SNAP benefits.
We won’t stop fighting to help residents put food on the table.
We won’t stop fighting to help residents put food on the table.
November 10, 2025 at 3:13 PM
President Trump blocked food assistance for over a week — then tried to punish states for feeding hungry Americans.
This is great news and I’m grateful to AG Campbell and her team. SNAP benefits are still going out. If you have funds on your EBT card, use them.
This is great news and I’m grateful to AG Campbell and her team. SNAP benefits are still going out. If you have funds on your EBT card, use them.
Reposted by gelbach
OSCAR ISAAC, on whether he'd return to "Star Wars":
".. Yeah. I mean, I’d be open to it, although right now I’m not so open to working with Disney. But if they can kinda figure it out and, you know, not succumb to fascism, that would be great."
@variety.com $DIS
variety.com/2025/film/ne...
".. Yeah. I mean, I’d be open to it, although right now I’m not so open to working with Disney. But if they can kinda figure it out and, you know, not succumb to fascism, that would be great."
@variety.com $DIS
variety.com/2025/film/ne...
Oscar Isaac Was ‘Not So Open to Working With Disney’ After Jimmy Kimmel Suspension, Said He’d Return to ‘Star Wars’ if Disney Does ‘Not Succumb to Fascism’
Oscar Isaac was not open to working with Disney after Jimmy Kimmel's suspension and will only return to 'Star Wars' if the studio avoids fascism.
variety.com
November 10, 2025 at 3:28 PM
OSCAR ISAAC, on whether he'd return to "Star Wars":
".. Yeah. I mean, I’d be open to it, although right now I’m not so open to working with Disney. But if they can kinda figure it out and, you know, not succumb to fascism, that would be great."
@variety.com $DIS
variety.com/2025/film/ne...
".. Yeah. I mean, I’d be open to it, although right now I’m not so open to working with Disney. But if they can kinda figure it out and, you know, not succumb to fascism, that would be great."
@variety.com $DIS
variety.com/2025/film/ne...
👇
okay but what about a question where someone is quoting a statement like "of course you'd say that"?
November 10, 2025 at 6:18 PM
👇
Same
Mark Kelly notably declines to endorse Chuck Schumer as the leader of Senate Dems going forward
November 10, 2025 at 6:16 PM
Same
Reposted by gelbach
I continue to think the shutdown was the right call, that we were never going to get much good out of a game of chicken against a group of nihilistic sadists, and that we should primary the ones who took the deal plus Mark Warner because they've largely been pushing to fold for nothing from jump
November 10, 2025 at 1:03 PM
I continue to think the shutdown was the right call, that we were never going to get much good out of a game of chicken against a group of nihilistic sadists, and that we should primary the ones who took the deal plus Mark Warner because they've largely been pushing to fold for nothing from jump
Reposted by gelbach
Trump and Republicans raised ACA health care premiums. They were unwilling to compromise despite a historically long shutdown and dismal public approval. Holding a vote after premiums go up, and enforcing the vote with another shutdown threat can force Republicans to own the issue
November 10, 2025 at 12:22 PM
Trump and Republicans raised ACA health care premiums. They were unwilling to compromise despite a historically long shutdown and dismal public approval. Holding a vote after premiums go up, and enforcing the vote with another shutdown threat can force Republicans to own the issue
Reposted by gelbach
Chuck Schumer Helps Pull Democrats Back From Brink Of Courage
November 10, 2025 at 5:02 AM
Chuck Schumer Helps Pull Democrats Back From Brink Of Courage
Reposted by gelbach
An extension until Jan 30 is not much of an extension, really. If the Republicans were not going to cave until after January, which seems a reasonable belief, it is not really obvious to me how the Ds are worse off through the deal. Let’s blow up the holidays for ACA tax credits is not a great sell.
November 10, 2025 at 12:59 PM
An extension until Jan 30 is not much of an extension, really. If the Republicans were not going to cave until after January, which seems a reasonable belief, it is not really obvious to me how the Ds are worse off through the deal. Let’s blow up the holidays for ACA tax credits is not a great sell.
Yep
American politics makes a lot more sense when you realize that the GOP is afraid of pissing off the GOP base, and the Dems are afraid of pissing off the GOP base, but neither party is afraid of pissing off the Dem base.
November 10, 2025 at 1:03 PM
Yep
Reposted by gelbach
Kyle Kingsbury is not a journalist. He is not an op-ed writer.
He is a computer safety researcher.
And he has written one of the most compelling, comprehensive accounts of the ongoing hell in Chicago that you could possibly imagine.
In under 1600 words.
aphyr.com/posts/397-i-...
He is a computer safety researcher.
And he has written one of the most compelling, comprehensive accounts of the ongoing hell in Chicago that you could possibly imagine.
In under 1600 words.
aphyr.com/posts/397-i-...
November 9, 2025 at 8:49 PM
Kyle Kingsbury is not a journalist. He is not an op-ed writer.
He is a computer safety researcher.
And he has written one of the most compelling, comprehensive accounts of the ongoing hell in Chicago that you could possibly imagine.
In under 1600 words.
aphyr.com/posts/397-i-...
He is a computer safety researcher.
And he has written one of the most compelling, comprehensive accounts of the ongoing hell in Chicago that you could possibly imagine.
In under 1600 words.
aphyr.com/posts/397-i-...