Bill Adams
@billadamsecon.bsky.social
Chief Economist, Comerica Bank. Opinions & investment advice are specifically for Aunt Sharon, not you. Failed baritone, lapsed UU, peaked in high school, here for finsky and lols
Pinned
Bill Adams
@billadamsecon.bsky.social
· Feb 3
charlie_lucy_football.gif
September jobs report coming out on Nov 20 per BLS, which still exists
a man in a hat is laying down and says mortimer ? we 're back !!
Alt: a man in a hat is laying down and says mortimer ? we 're back !!
If you are the lonely person under age 36 on this website who doesn't recognize the reference, it's from the heartwarming classic Christmas movie Coming to America. What are you doing here anyway? Wouldn't you be having more fun looking at Tiktoks? Ticks tok?
media.tenor.com
November 14, 2025 at 8:16 PM
September jobs report coming out on Nov 20 per BLS, which still exists
Reposted by Bill Adams
I need Joyce Carol Oates to be mean to me online so I can get my life together
November 11, 2025 at 1:01 PM
I need Joyce Carol Oates to be mean to me online so I can get my life together
Reposted by Bill Adams
Amazon Kindle currently has my new book availalbe for FREE as an e-book online right now! Buy it now for $0.00 before they change it back!
Link: shorturl.at/uPZC3
Link: shorturl.at/uPZC3
November 10, 2025 at 7:47 AM
Amazon Kindle currently has my new book availalbe for FREE as an e-book online right now! Buy it now for $0.00 before they change it back!
Link: shorturl.at/uPZC3
Link: shorturl.at/uPZC3
hi, chart expert here! this is not funny, charts only do this when they're in extreme stress.
November 7, 2025 at 6:26 PM
hi, chart expert here! this is not funny, charts only do this when they're in extreme stress.
Reposted by Bill Adams
Data as of 4 November shows a break in the upward move of the money market MCI, which coincided with the announcement of the end of QT. In other words, money market conditions are not as tight post announcement
November 7, 2025 at 8:16 AM
Data as of 4 November shows a break in the upward move of the money market MCI, which coincided with the announcement of the end of QT. In other words, money market conditions are not as tight post announcement
Reposted by Bill Adams
Look at the distribution of z-values from medical research!
November 4, 2025 at 10:36 PM
Look at the distribution of z-values from medical research!
Reposted by Bill Adams
Shock in Au
*SPOT GOLD FALLS AS MUCH AS 3.8% IN BIGGEST DROP IN FOUR YEARS
October 21, 2025 at 1:10 PM
Shock in Au
Reposted by Bill Adams
Personal news: I've become more involved in the making of the Green Daily newsletter by Bloomberg Green. It's a fun and thrilling experience to help curate a news bulletin that hits thousands of inboxes six days a week.
For free climate news, subscribe here:
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Green Daily
The latest in climate science, clean energy, green finance, environmental politics, EVs, zero-emissions tech and sustainable living.
www.bloomberg.com
October 13, 2025 at 12:24 PM
Personal news: I've become more involved in the making of the Green Daily newsletter by Bloomberg Green. It's a fun and thrilling experience to help curate a news bulletin that hits thousands of inboxes six days a week.
For free climate news, subscribe here:
www.bloomberg.com/account/news...
For free climate news, subscribe here:
www.bloomberg.com/account/news...
Reading Anna Quindlen and man, she is so good. I wish I could write like this:
"Life is haphazard. We plan, and then we deal when the plans go awry. Control is an illusion; best intentions are the best we can do. I remember imagining that I could chart a course that would take me from one place...
"Life is haphazard. We plan, and then we deal when the plans go awry. Control is an illusion; best intentions are the best we can do. I remember imagining that I could chart a course that would take me from one place...
October 11, 2025 at 4:24 PM
Reading Anna Quindlen and man, she is so good. I wish I could write like this:
"Life is haphazard. We plan, and then we deal when the plans go awry. Control is an illusion; best intentions are the best we can do. I remember imagining that I could chart a course that would take me from one place...
"Life is haphazard. We plan, and then we deal when the plans go awry. Control is an illusion; best intentions are the best we can do. I remember imagining that I could chart a course that would take me from one place...
Zillow has released their August house value index which shows prices flat on the month, and nearly unchanged Y/Y. Most house price indices (FHFA, Cotality etc) show m/m declines from early 2025 through July. Nice to see wage growth outpaced HPIs in August.
October 8, 2025 at 2:56 PM
Zillow has released their August house value index which shows prices flat on the month, and nearly unchanged Y/Y. Most house price indices (FHFA, Cotality etc) show m/m declines from early 2025 through July. Nice to see wage growth outpaced HPIs in August.
@conorsen.bsky.social pointing out why employment fell in Sept in yesterday's ADP report--weak seasonal hiring as retailers ramp up for the holidays. This is shaping up to be a headwind to payrolls through year-end.
October 2, 2025 at 2:12 PM
@conorsen.bsky.social pointing out why employment fell in Sept in yesterday's ADP report--weak seasonal hiring as retailers ramp up for the holidays. This is shaping up to be a headwind to payrolls through year-end.
This piece was so good
Interesting article comparing AI to containerization. Have to think about this more joincolossus.com/article/ai-w...
AI Will Not Make You Rich
The disruption is real. It's also predictable.
joincolossus.com
September 29, 2025 at 12:16 PM
This piece was so good
Reposted by Bill Adams
In a scene repeated across all of America this fall, my 7.5 yr old’s AYSO soccer team, the Demon Hunters, played another team named the Demon Hunters
September 27, 2025 at 4:47 PM
In a scene repeated across all of America this fall, my 7.5 yr old’s AYSO soccer team, the Demon Hunters, played another team named the Demon Hunters
September 26, 2025 at 9:20 PM
Really notable upward revisions to capital income today, raising personal income from businesses, rentals, interest and dividends. With these revisions, the saving rate has trended in stronger territory in the last few years than previously understood. 1/2
September 26, 2025 at 2:57 PM
Really notable upward revisions to capital income today, raising personal income from businesses, rentals, interest and dividends. With these revisions, the saving rate has trended in stronger territory in the last few years than previously understood. 1/2
Reposted by Bill Adams
Reposted by Bill Adams
Bill Nelson ups the level of how nerdy and niche Fed analysis can be, and I love it
September 18, 2025 at 7:38 PM
Bill Nelson ups the level of how nerdy and niche Fed analysis can be, and I love it
Fomc guess: 25bps cut, two dissents for a 50bps cut, one dissent for a 100bps cut.
September 17, 2025 at 5:54 PM
Fomc guess: 25bps cut, two dissents for a 50bps cut, one dissent for a 100bps cut.
Huge range of forecasts for the preliminary benchmark revision from private forecasters ahead of its release this morning, from -250k and -900k. Median is -682k, I'm forecasting -775k. BLS will publish the revision at 9am Dallas time.
September 9, 2025 at 12:40 PM
Huge range of forecasts for the preliminary benchmark revision from private forecasters ahead of its release this morning, from -250k and -900k. Median is -682k, I'm forecasting -775k. BLS will publish the revision at 9am Dallas time.
Reposted by Bill Adams
Ahh the kids sports schedules coming in again, which typically leave about 13 minutes every week for me to pursue my dreams.
September 9, 2025 at 12:14 AM
Ahh the kids sports schedules coming in again, which typically leave about 13 minutes every week for me to pursue my dreams.
Reposted by Bill Adams
I too want to attack Fed independence (to get rid of these cursed dots on FRED charts):
September 3, 2025 at 9:13 PM
I too want to attack Fed independence (to get rid of these cursed dots on FRED charts):
Two things can be true at once. First, the Fed's independence is under attack. Second, the next rate decision will be a tough call.
Inflation will exceed the Fed's target for a fifth straight year this year-- not great! -- but Black workers' jobs data are sounding klaxons that shouldn't be ignored
Inflation will exceed the Fed's target for a fifth straight year this year-- not great! -- but Black workers' jobs data are sounding klaxons that shouldn't be ignored
August 23, 2025 at 1:22 PM
Two things can be true at once. First, the Fed's independence is under attack. Second, the next rate decision will be a tough call.
Inflation will exceed the Fed's target for a fifth straight year this year-- not great! -- but Black workers' jobs data are sounding klaxons that shouldn't be ignored
Inflation will exceed the Fed's target for a fifth straight year this year-- not great! -- but Black workers' jobs data are sounding klaxons that shouldn't be ignored
Reposted by Bill Adams
My partner is attending a preschool field trip today and the updates I've received so far are
this field trip is a lot!!! man
<our child> is the problem child and <her favorite friend> a little bit co-conspirator
...I didn't *know* that my child was the troublemaker, but nor am I surprised
this field trip is a lot!!! man
<our child> is the problem child and <her favorite friend> a little bit co-conspirator
...I didn't *know* that my child was the troublemaker, but nor am I surprised
August 15, 2025 at 5:00 PM
My partner is attending a preschool field trip today and the updates I've received so far are
this field trip is a lot!!! man
<our child> is the problem child and <her favorite friend> a little bit co-conspirator
...I didn't *know* that my child was the troublemaker, but nor am I surprised
this field trip is a lot!!! man
<our child> is the problem child and <her favorite friend> a little bit co-conspirator
...I didn't *know* that my child was the troublemaker, but nor am I surprised
Reposted by Bill Adams
Cut my brain into pieces
Make me a crab for sport
Make me a crab for sport
August 2, 2025 at 2:56 PM
Cut my brain into pieces
Make me a crab for sport
Make me a crab for sport
China's Premier once said he didn't trust his own government's GDP stats, and instead watched rail freight, bank loans, and electricity output to measure the economy. The US equivalent is the Dallas Fed's weekly economic index. Time to start following it closer!
www.dallasfed.org/research/wei
www.dallasfed.org/research/wei
Weekly Economic Index
The WEI is currently 2.56 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended July 26 and 2.23 percent for July 19.
www.dallasfed.org
August 1, 2025 at 7:50 PM
China's Premier once said he didn't trust his own government's GDP stats, and instead watched rail freight, bank loans, and electricity output to measure the economy. The US equivalent is the Dallas Fed's weekly economic index. Time to start following it closer!
www.dallasfed.org/research/wei
www.dallasfed.org/research/wei