Win Monroe
@winmonroe.bsky.social
Another economist.
Views and bad hot takes are my own, if even that.
Likes & RTs =/= endorsements.
Views and bad hot takes are my own, if even that.
Likes & RTs =/= endorsements.
Reposted by Win Monroe
🚀 I'm on the #EconSky Job Market!
My JMP asks a classic question:
Do large, dominant firms foster or hinder innovation?
To study this, I turn to the Great Merger Wave (1895–1904), when >2,600 U.S. firms combined into corporate giants like U.S. Steel and DuPont.
A JMP 🧵👇 (1/13)
My JMP asks a classic question:
Do large, dominant firms foster or hinder innovation?
To study this, I turn to the Great Merger Wave (1895–1904), when >2,600 U.S. firms combined into corporate giants like U.S. Steel and DuPont.
A JMP 🧵👇 (1/13)
November 11, 2025 at 7:55 PM
🚀 I'm on the #EconSky Job Market!
My JMP asks a classic question:
Do large, dominant firms foster or hinder innovation?
To study this, I turn to the Great Merger Wave (1895–1904), when >2,600 U.S. firms combined into corporate giants like U.S. Steel and DuPont.
A JMP 🧵👇 (1/13)
My JMP asks a classic question:
Do large, dominant firms foster or hinder innovation?
To study this, I turn to the Great Merger Wave (1895–1904), when >2,600 U.S. firms combined into corporate giants like U.S. Steel and DuPont.
A JMP 🧵👇 (1/13)
Is there a raya chant? There really should be
Cc @arseblog.com @gunnerblog.bsky.social @tim-stillman.bsky.social @poorlydrawnarsenal.com
Cc @arseblog.com @gunnerblog.bsky.social @tim-stillman.bsky.social @poorlydrawnarsenal.com
November 8, 2025 at 7:24 PM
Is there a raya chant? There really should be
Cc @arseblog.com @gunnerblog.bsky.social @tim-stillman.bsky.social @poorlydrawnarsenal.com
Cc @arseblog.com @gunnerblog.bsky.social @tim-stillman.bsky.social @poorlydrawnarsenal.com
Reposted by Win Monroe
This really is poorly thought through.
If you are going to do a per mile charge it should be for all vehicles. Petrol is undercharged in comparison to its negative impacts.
And it's a phenomenally bad idea to create additional psychological barriers to owning EVs.
on.ft.com/4oxpaFs
If you are going to do a per mile charge it should be for all vehicles. Petrol is undercharged in comparison to its negative impacts.
And it's a phenomenally bad idea to create additional psychological barriers to owning EVs.
on.ft.com/4oxpaFs
Reeves poised to unveil Budget plan for EV drivers to pay per mile charges
Chancellor looks to offset a forecast sharp drop in government revenue from fuel duty
on.ft.com
November 6, 2025 at 6:57 AM
This really is poorly thought through.
If you are going to do a per mile charge it should be for all vehicles. Petrol is undercharged in comparison to its negative impacts.
And it's a phenomenally bad idea to create additional psychological barriers to owning EVs.
on.ft.com/4oxpaFs
If you are going to do a per mile charge it should be for all vehicles. Petrol is undercharged in comparison to its negative impacts.
And it's a phenomenally bad idea to create additional psychological barriers to owning EVs.
on.ft.com/4oxpaFs
Traders are increasingly turning to US interest-rate futures where they are wagering on changes between repo rates and the federal funds rate as money-market stress persists.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...?
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...?
Key Fed Fund Rates Trade Gains Popularity Amid Repo Volatility
Traders are increasingly turning to US interest-rate futures where they are wagering on changes between repo rates and the federal funds rate as money-market stress persists.
www.bloomberg.com
November 4, 2025 at 11:09 PM
Traders are increasingly turning to US interest-rate futures where they are wagering on changes between repo rates and the federal funds rate as money-market stress persists.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...?
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...?
Reposted by Win Monroe
Reposted by Win Monroe
Banks tap Federal Reserve's Standing Repo Facility in record numbers amid month-end pressures. Via Reuters
www.reuters.com
November 1, 2025 at 3:40 PM
Banks tap Federal Reserve's Standing Repo Facility in record numbers amid month-end pressures. Via Reuters
Reposted by Win Monroe
M83 got the sax back on the map with Midnight City, it was a bummer this song wasn’t bigger because shredder solos deserved another moment.
Go! (feat. Mai Lan) by M83 on Apple Music
Song · 2016 · Duration 3:55
music.apple.com
November 1, 2025 at 10:56 PM
M83 got the sax back on the map with Midnight City, it was a bummer this song wasn’t bigger because shredder solos deserved another moment.
YIMBYism in the Jacobin. You love to see it.
Zoning reform measures have divided tenant advocates in New York. Yet loosening the city’s anti-housing regime is essential if we ever want to build social housing at scale.
You Can’t Have Social Housing Without Building Housing
Zoning reform measures have divided tenant advocates in New York. Yet loosening the city’s anti-housing regime is essential if we ever want to build social housing at scale.
jacobin.com
October 30, 2025 at 10:11 PM
YIMBYism in the Jacobin. You love to see it.
Reposted by Win Monroe
Today in credit debates - WTF is happening with the OAS and Swap spread wedge in US IG corporates. The Tl;dr is that OAS, which measures the additional yield you get on corporate debt over a similar duration government bond, is much lower than the yield pick-up over a floating-rate curve (swaps).
October 30, 2025 at 6:57 PM
Today in credit debates - WTF is happening with the OAS and Swap spread wedge in US IG corporates. The Tl;dr is that OAS, which measures the additional yield you get on corporate debt over a similar duration government bond, is much lower than the yield pick-up over a floating-rate curve (swaps).
Reposted by Win Monroe
There's a lot of uncertainty about whether the labor market is healthy. Everyone agrees the unemployment rate is low—that's good. But there's disagreement on what good employment growth looks like right now, stemming from wild swings in population due to immigration policy. 🧵of 5
October 30, 2025 at 2:05 PM
There's a lot of uncertainty about whether the labor market is healthy. Everyone agrees the unemployment rate is low—that's good. But there's disagreement on what good employment growth looks like right now, stemming from wild swings in population due to immigration policy. 🧵of 5
This is a great read
We bang on about the Fed's influence and its importance in shaping markets
....but that's been waning
..10y Treasury yields used to move in a 3-day window around Fed meetings
My newsletter examines why not any more www.ft.com/content/c396...
....but that's been waning
..10y Treasury yields used to move in a 3-day window around Fed meetings
My newsletter examines why not any more www.ft.com/content/c396...
October 28, 2025 at 3:53 PM
This is a great read
Reposted by Win Monroe
We bang on about the Fed's influence and its importance in shaping markets
....but that's been waning
..10y Treasury yields used to move in a 3-day window around Fed meetings
My newsletter examines why not any more www.ft.com/content/c396...
....but that's been waning
..10y Treasury yields used to move in a 3-day window around Fed meetings
My newsletter examines why not any more www.ft.com/content/c396...
October 28, 2025 at 1:27 PM
We bang on about the Fed's influence and its importance in shaping markets
....but that's been waning
..10y Treasury yields used to move in a 3-day window around Fed meetings
My newsletter examines why not any more www.ft.com/content/c396...
....but that's been waning
..10y Treasury yields used to move in a 3-day window around Fed meetings
My newsletter examines why not any more www.ft.com/content/c396...
Reposted by Win Monroe
It's increasingly obvious that Labour's strategy - call it Starmerism, Blue Labour, whatever - has got it badly wrong. It has alienated the party's core vote while failing to win over those leaning to Reform. There was no shortage of people warning them they were getting it wrong either.
October 28, 2025 at 12:02 PM
It's increasingly obvious that Labour's strategy - call it Starmerism, Blue Labour, whatever - has got it badly wrong. It has alienated the party's core vote while failing to win over those leaning to Reform. There was no shortage of people warning them they were getting it wrong either.
Reposted by Win Monroe
Recent tightness in money markets indicates the Fed is getting near or is at an "ample" level of reserves. Given the political pressure on the Fed, there is surely little stomach for a repeat of 2019 repo turmoil. The Fed has a variety of policy levers at hand (1/n)
October 27, 2025 at 7:34 PM
Recent tightness in money markets indicates the Fed is getting near or is at an "ample" level of reserves. Given the political pressure on the Fed, there is surely little stomach for a repeat of 2019 repo turmoil. The Fed has a variety of policy levers at hand (1/n)
Reposted by Win Monroe
📢 #CallforPapers for the ISEG Lisbon Urban and Public Economics Mini Workshop on Housing 🇵🇹
🗓️February 26 and 27, 2026
More information👇
Please RT #EconSky
🗓️February 26 and 27, 2026
More information👇
Please RT #EconSky
October 27, 2025 at 8:14 AM
📢 #CallforPapers for the ISEG Lisbon Urban and Public Economics Mini Workshop on Housing 🇵🇹
🗓️February 26 and 27, 2026
More information👇
Please RT #EconSky
🗓️February 26 and 27, 2026
More information👇
Please RT #EconSky
Recent tightness in money markets indicates the Fed is getting near or is at an "ample" level of reserves. Given the political pressure on the Fed, there is surely little stomach for a repeat of 2019 repo turmoil. The Fed has a variety of policy levers at hand (1/n)
October 27, 2025 at 7:34 PM
Recent tightness in money markets indicates the Fed is getting near or is at an "ample" level of reserves. Given the political pressure on the Fed, there is surely little stomach for a repeat of 2019 repo turmoil. The Fed has a variety of policy levers at hand (1/n)
Reposted by Win Monroe
SNAP isn't about "people who don't work." It's about people who don't get paid enough to live.
Of the 40 or so million people who rely on food stamps:
* Two-thirds are children, seniors, or disabled
* Most working-age adults who receive SNAP are employed—but in jobs that pay poverty wages
Of the 40 or so million people who rely on food stamps:
* Two-thirds are children, seniors, or disabled
* Most working-age adults who receive SNAP are employed—but in jobs that pay poverty wages
October 27, 2025 at 12:48 AM
SNAP isn't about "people who don't work." It's about people who don't get paid enough to live.
Of the 40 or so million people who rely on food stamps:
* Two-thirds are children, seniors, or disabled
* Most working-age adults who receive SNAP are employed—but in jobs that pay poverty wages
Of the 40 or so million people who rely on food stamps:
* Two-thirds are children, seniors, or disabled
* Most working-age adults who receive SNAP are employed—but in jobs that pay poverty wages
Reposted by Win Monroe
It's still early but when we compare current earnings season (156 reports tracked in our data) to where things were at with that many reports during prior earnings seasons, this is the third-strongest EPS beat rate on record and strongest revenue beat rate. Just incredibly strong versus estimates.
October 23, 2025 at 3:25 PM
It's still early but when we compare current earnings season (156 reports tracked in our data) to where things were at with that many reports during prior earnings seasons, this is the third-strongest EPS beat rate on record and strongest revenue beat rate. Just incredibly strong versus estimates.
Reposted by Win Monroe
Total federal spending is up +7% in 2025 over 2024 year-to-date to Oct 20.
The story that the fed govt is tightening its belt is contradicted by its own real-time expenditure data. Admin spectacularly hammering some things but raising spending elsewhere.
Was -7% just after Inauguration Day.
The story that the fed govt is tightening its belt is contradicted by its own real-time expenditure data. Admin spectacularly hammering some things but raising spending elsewhere.
Was -7% just after Inauguration Day.
October 23, 2025 at 2:47 PM
Total federal spending is up +7% in 2025 over 2024 year-to-date to Oct 20.
The story that the fed govt is tightening its belt is contradicted by its own real-time expenditure data. Admin spectacularly hammering some things but raising spending elsewhere.
Was -7% just after Inauguration Day.
The story that the fed govt is tightening its belt is contradicted by its own real-time expenditure data. Admin spectacularly hammering some things but raising spending elsewhere.
Was -7% just after Inauguration Day.
Reposted by Win Monroe
How to overthrow the Bank of England
[FREE TO READ] (In case useful)
on.ft.com
October 23, 2025 at 7:00 AM
Reposted by Win Monroe
it feels so hard to explain to people that "doing very wrong things policy-wose" has way less of an impact on the day to day macro numbers than like "pause for a couple months" did during the pandemic
October 22, 2025 at 12:08 PM
it feels so hard to explain to people that "doing very wrong things policy-wose" has way less of an impact on the day to day macro numbers than like "pause for a couple months" did during the pandemic
Reposted by Win Monroe
It's true to say that credit card delinquency rates are high versus recent history, but also true to say that the rate of deterioration is slowing. And higher twitch card issuer data suggests things are meaningfully improving in terms of charge-offs and delinquencies.
October 22, 2025 at 11:59 AM
It's true to say that credit card delinquency rates are high versus recent history, but also true to say that the rate of deterioration is slowing. And higher twitch card issuer data suggests things are meaningfully improving in terms of charge-offs and delinquencies.
Reposted by Win Monroe
🚨 Why has US jobs growth been so anaemic? Parsing Goldman's latest paper, and taking the opportunity to wrap in the Dallas Fed's scary blog.
on.ft.com/48COxQY
on.ft.com/48COxQY
October 22, 2025 at 9:49 AM
🚨 Why has US jobs growth been so anaemic? Parsing Goldman's latest paper, and taking the opportunity to wrap in the Dallas Fed's scary blog.
on.ft.com/48COxQY
on.ft.com/48COxQY
Bill Nelson says it's time for the Fed to restart open market operations
October 22, 2025 at 1:20 PM
Bill Nelson says it's time for the Fed to restart open market operations