Bill Adams
@billadamsecon.bsky.social
Chief Economist, Comerica Bank. Opinions & investment advice are specifically for Aunt Sharon, not you. Failed baritone, lapsed UU, peaked in high school, here for finsky and lols
hi, chart expert here! this is not funny, charts only do this when they're in extreme stress.
November 7, 2025 at 6:26 PM
hi, chart expert here! this is not funny, charts only do this when they're in extreme stress.
Zillow has released their August house value index which shows prices flat on the month, and nearly unchanged Y/Y. Most house price indices (FHFA, Cotality etc) show m/m declines from early 2025 through July. Nice to see wage growth outpaced HPIs in August.
October 8, 2025 at 2:56 PM
Zillow has released their August house value index which shows prices flat on the month, and nearly unchanged Y/Y. Most house price indices (FHFA, Cotality etc) show m/m declines from early 2025 through July. Nice to see wage growth outpaced HPIs in August.
@conorsen.bsky.social pointing out why employment fell in Sept in yesterday's ADP report--weak seasonal hiring as retailers ramp up for the holidays. This is shaping up to be a headwind to payrolls through year-end.
October 2, 2025 at 2:12 PM
@conorsen.bsky.social pointing out why employment fell in Sept in yesterday's ADP report--weak seasonal hiring as retailers ramp up for the holidays. This is shaping up to be a headwind to payrolls through year-end.
Hasn't fiscal tightening already happened? The deficit is down 17% Y/Y Feb-Aug. The OBBBA is set up to offset that in 2026 and put the deficit back at its 2024 level as % of GDP, timed with the midterms. Unsure about lags between fiscal policy & hiring/layoffs, but that looks like their plan to me.
September 27, 2025 at 1:01 PM
Hasn't fiscal tightening already happened? The deficit is down 17% Y/Y Feb-Aug. The OBBBA is set up to offset that in 2026 and put the deficit back at its 2024 level as % of GDP, timed with the midterms. Unsure about lags between fiscal policy & hiring/layoffs, but that looks like their plan to me.
I don't think we're in a recession. I don't think we're headed into one with the Fed cutting and fiscal policy loosening. But--
September 27, 2025 at 12:01 PM
I don't think we're in a recession. I don't think we're headed into one with the Fed cutting and fiscal policy loosening. But--
Really notable upward revisions to capital income today, raising personal income from businesses, rentals, interest and dividends. With these revisions, the saving rate has trended in stronger territory in the last few years than previously understood. 1/2
September 26, 2025 at 2:57 PM
Really notable upward revisions to capital income today, raising personal income from businesses, rentals, interest and dividends. With these revisions, the saving rate has trended in stronger territory in the last few years than previously understood. 1/2
Two things can be true at once. First, the Fed's independence is under attack. Second, the next rate decision will be a tough call.
Inflation will exceed the Fed's target for a fifth straight year this year-- not great! -- but Black workers' jobs data are sounding klaxons that shouldn't be ignored
Inflation will exceed the Fed's target for a fifth straight year this year-- not great! -- but Black workers' jobs data are sounding klaxons that shouldn't be ignored
August 23, 2025 at 1:22 PM
Two things can be true at once. First, the Fed's independence is under attack. Second, the next rate decision will be a tough call.
Inflation will exceed the Fed's target for a fifth straight year this year-- not great! -- but Black workers' jobs data are sounding klaxons that shouldn't be ignored
Inflation will exceed the Fed's target for a fifth straight year this year-- not great! -- but Black workers' jobs data are sounding klaxons that shouldn't be ignored
The problem with this website is that dril is a quiet poster. Finally a villain we can all agree on
May 27, 2025 at 11:06 AM
The problem with this website is that dril is a quiet poster. Finally a villain we can all agree on
Guys, Excel was launched in 1985 and accounting employment boomed for two generations. Programmers will be fine, maybe someday Word will be able to open a PDF
May 18, 2025 at 5:32 PM
Guys, Excel was launched in 1985 and accounting employment boomed for two generations. Programmers will be fine, maybe someday Word will be able to open a PDF
Up until the turn of the year it seemed to me that the lock in effect was keeping the existing home market on ice but new construction was doing great. But I can't see how new home sales hold up if consumer confidence keeps crumbling.
fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgr...
fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgr...
March 22, 2025 at 1:34 PM
Up until the turn of the year it seemed to me that the lock in effect was keeping the existing home market on ice but new construction was doing great. But I can't see how new home sales hold up if consumer confidence keeps crumbling.
fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgr...
fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgr...
To my mind the most important part of the execrable Michigan consumer survey is that unemployment rate expectations are the most pessimistic since 2009.
People who are afraid of losing their jobs aren't buying houses or cars, aren't going on vacation, aren't going out to eat.
Bad, bad news.
People who are afraid of losing their jobs aren't buying houses or cars, aren't going on vacation, aren't going out to eat.
Bad, bad news.
March 14, 2025 at 2:56 PM
To my mind the most important part of the execrable Michigan consumer survey is that unemployment rate expectations are the most pessimistic since 2009.
People who are afraid of losing their jobs aren't buying houses or cars, aren't going on vacation, aren't going out to eat.
Bad, bad news.
People who are afraid of losing their jobs aren't buying houses or cars, aren't going on vacation, aren't going out to eat.
Bad, bad news.
@bloomberg.com is this
Markets, Rocked by Trump, Show Economic Fear Across Wall Street,
or
Markets Rocked by Trump Show,
Economic Fear Across Wall Street?
Works either way I suppose, well done folks
Markets, Rocked by Trump, Show Economic Fear Across Wall Street,
or
Markets Rocked by Trump Show,
Economic Fear Across Wall Street?
Works either way I suppose, well done folks
March 10, 2025 at 9:22 PM
@bloomberg.com is this
Markets, Rocked by Trump, Show Economic Fear Across Wall Street,
or
Markets Rocked by Trump Show,
Economic Fear Across Wall Street?
Works either way I suppose, well done folks
Markets, Rocked by Trump, Show Economic Fear Across Wall Street,
or
Markets Rocked by Trump Show,
Economic Fear Across Wall Street?
Works either way I suppose, well done folks
February 17, 2025 at 10:45 PM
Another reason for the messy January jobs report: Lots of people out of work with the flu last month.
February 7, 2025 at 6:41 PM
Another reason for the messy January jobs report: Lots of people out of work with the flu last month.
Nice chart showing how economic forecasters have raised inflation forecasts since the election. Personally I'm assuming most of the inflation from tariffs starts showing up in sticker prices in the second half of 2025.
January 23, 2025 at 4:47 PM
Nice chart showing how economic forecasters have raised inflation forecasts since the election. Personally I'm assuming most of the inflation from tariffs starts showing up in sticker prices in the second half of 2025.
Employment in motor vehicles and parts manufacturing down a cumulative 2.2% from July to November. Not great!
December 13, 2024 at 8:24 PM
Employment in motor vehicles and parts manufacturing down a cumulative 2.2% from July to November. Not great!
It's an interesting distinction--jolts data on hires and separations only go back to Dec 2000 and I'm not familiar with older sources on hires and separations by industry. Do you know what's out there?
December 2, 2024 at 6:14 PM
It's an interesting distinction--jolts data on hires and separations only go back to Dec 2000 and I'm not familiar with older sources on hires and separations by industry. Do you know what's out there?
Manufacturing jobs in the Midwest collapsed nearly 40% from 2000 to 2010, when the China shock was most intense. Manufacturing jobs fell throughout the 2001-2007 expansion even though the broad economy was growing and housing was booming.
December 2, 2024 at 4:30 PM
Manufacturing jobs in the Midwest collapsed nearly 40% from 2000 to 2010, when the China shock was most intense. Manufacturing jobs fell throughout the 2001-2007 expansion even though the broad economy was growing and housing was booming.
A good construction report for October is actually a great report when you consider the big upward revisions to August and September.
Both residential and nonresidential revised higher.
Spending up 5.0% Y/Y.
Both residential and nonresidential revised higher.
Spending up 5.0% Y/Y.
December 2, 2024 at 3:35 PM
A good construction report for October is actually a great report when you consider the big upward revisions to August and September.
Both residential and nonresidential revised higher.
Spending up 5.0% Y/Y.
Both residential and nonresidential revised higher.
Spending up 5.0% Y/Y.
Existing home sales are depressed, but listings relative to sales are back in balance, which should mean relatively normal price increases in 2025.
The market for condos and co-ops is especially soft: months' supply is the highest in a decade (ignore the crazy 2020 spike). Chart via @bloomberg.com
The market for condos and co-ops is especially soft: months' supply is the highest in a decade (ignore the crazy 2020 spike). Chart via @bloomberg.com
November 21, 2024 at 3:28 PM
Existing home sales are depressed, but listings relative to sales are back in balance, which should mean relatively normal price increases in 2025.
The market for condos and co-ops is especially soft: months' supply is the highest in a decade (ignore the crazy 2020 spike). Chart via @bloomberg.com
The market for condos and co-ops is especially soft: months' supply is the highest in a decade (ignore the crazy 2020 spike). Chart via @bloomberg.com
GDPNow is showing the third quarter was likely another in a string of solid expansions, currently projecting 3.4% annualized. If so this will be the 6th quarter of robust growth (2.8%-3.2% Y/Y), the longest streak since 2006.
October 21, 2024 at 2:10 PM
GDPNow is showing the third quarter was likely another in a string of solid expansions, currently projecting 3.4% annualized. If so this will be the 6th quarter of robust growth (2.8%-3.2% Y/Y), the longest streak since 2006.
I mean, just look at that jump in housing supply
October 18, 2024 at 7:51 PM
I mean, just look at that jump in housing supply
The saving rate is higher in the newer and more accurate data, back to the highest since 2021 and only modestly below pre pandemic levels. Household finances are in good shape
September 27, 2024 at 10:53 AM
The saving rate is higher in the newer and more accurate data, back to the highest since 2021 and only modestly below pre pandemic levels. Household finances are in good shape
Another very positive detail in yesterday's GDP revisions: Turns out real disposable personal income growth was just fine in the first half of the year. Prior data showed it faltering
September 27, 2024 at 10:48 AM
Another very positive detail in yesterday's GDP revisions: Turns out real disposable personal income growth was just fine in the first half of the year. Prior data showed it faltering
A hunch of mine is that a lot of the negativity about the economy is because people say 'economy' but mean 'society'
September 15, 2024 at 3:04 PM
A hunch of mine is that a lot of the negativity about the economy is because people say 'economy' but mean 'society'