Joris Larik
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jorislarik.bsky.social
Joris Larik
@jorislarik.bsky.social

Associate Professor & Director of Education | EU external relations, global governance & the law | Leiden University College The Hague & Europa Institute, Leiden University

https://www.universiteitleiden.nl/en/staffmembers/joris-larik#tab-1 .. more

Political science 66%
Business 16%

Reposted by Joris Larik

Historic day!🇪🇺🤝🇨🇦

Amidst global shifts, Canada and the EU are strengthening ties when needed most.

Pleasure to sign w Minister McGuinty important agreement under the #SAFE instrument this morning! It will boost our industries & security, strengthen our defence cooperation & economic ties.
Today in @theguardian.com, I argue that Donald Trump’s foreign-policy playbook is increasingly about attention capture, or what I call geopolitical clickbait.

Plus I outline why this matters for Europe & what to do about it.

🧵

www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Trump wants our attention. Let’s stop falling for his geopolitical clickbait | Catherine De Vries
Whether he’s targeting Greenland, tariffs or Iran, Trump’s agenda is to distract – because a Europe that is always reacting is never planning, says political scientist Catherine De Vries
www.theguardian.com

“Oceania had always been at war with Eastasia.” Scary stuff.

Reposted by Joris Larik

There is no break on #SAFE! 🚀

8 more national investment plans approved just now.

~€75B in #EUDefence funding, moving us closer to collective strength.

⏩ What’s next: Council decisions for fast disbursement.

And we continue working on the remaing plans.

Reposted by Joris Larik

Good to see a contingent representing the European Union, led by Colonel Spruijt acting on behalf of the EU Military Staff, at the #RepublicDay parade.
The display of the flags of the EU, the EU Military Staff, and our maritime missions ATALANTA and ASPIDES at India’s Republic Day is a powerful symbol of our deepening security cooperation.

It will culminate tomorrow in the signature of our Security and Defence Partnership.

Reposted by Joris Larik

Motie: 21501-20-2374
Europese Raad

Motie van het lid Erkens c.s. over in de Raad steun uitspreken voor het voorlopig in werking laten treden van het EU-Mercosurakkoord

tweedekamer.nl

Reposted by Joris Larik

"Think the unthinkable".

Yesterday's speech by German Foreign Office State Secretary von Geyr expresses the horror at both Trump's Greenland threats and the "Board of Peace" by many in German foreign policy establishment. Both named alongside Russia's war against Ukraine as turning points.

Relatedly, given the serious "Battle of Hoth" vibes of the whole Greenland crisis, we should consider renaming it the "trade ion cannon"...

I thought about this comment a lot. In a way, I think it's been genius to give it this catchy (albeit ridiculous) nickname: It captures the EU's economic power & ways to leverage it in an imaginative way that actually gets media and policymakers' attention. The "bazooka" is the massage!
Agriculture is only a tiny part of EU-Mercosur free-trade agreement
• EU tariff cuts on Mercosur-made meat will apply only to small share of European imports
• Real economic rationale of deal could lie in industrial and services trade, as well as mineral products
www.economist.com/europe/2026/...

Reposted by Joris Larik

I think deterrence... worked. Europe's response was actually strong. They sent forces to Denmark, they threatened to retaliate with tariffs, they talked about selling US debt, they made markets nervous and it looked like Trump TACO'd... for now.
Trump on NATO:

"The problem with NATO is that we'll be there for them 100% but I'm not sure that they'd be there for us, if we gave them the call".

We did get the call on 9/11. 26 NATO members sent troops to defend the US. Hundreds died doing so. It was the only time Article 5 has been activated.

Then again, why even suppress it anymore? As someone recently radicalized by Mark Carney, I’d say take down the signs and stop
living within the lie. Laugh at what’s laughable.

Reposted by Joris Larik

The feeling is mutual. We don‘t recognize the United States anymore. And it breaks my heart. Greetings from Europe!
Trump: "Certain places in Europe are not even recognizable, frankly, anymore. We can argue about it but there's no argument. Friends come back from different places and say, 'I don't recognize it.' And that's not in a positive way. That's in a very negative way."

[4/]

➡️ ...this does not delay the provisional application of the agreement (not subject to EP consent), which was going to be a longer interim situation anyway. CETA between the EU and Canada has been provisionally applied since 2017 and, and trade between the two sides has thrived in the meantime.

[6/]

➡️ ...even if some violations of EU primary law are found, it may be possible to remedy them without fully unpacking the agreement and/or discontinuing provisional application.

[the end]

[5/]

➡️ ...while having to study further the issues raised, I am not too worried that the Court will find the EU-Mercosur Agreement incompatible with the EU Treaties. It confirmed CETA's compatibility with the EU Treaties in 2019 in Opinion 1/17 (see also Opinion 2/15 on broad EU trade powers.)

[4/]

➡️ ...this does not delay the provisional application of the agreement (not subject to EP consent), which was going to be a longer interim situation anyway. CETA between the EU and Canada has been provisionally applied since 2017 and, and trade between the two sides has thrived in the meantime.

[3/]

➡️ ...waiting for the ruling will at least delay the possibility for the entry into force of the agreement.

HOWEVER, to quote Scott Bessent for once, I think we (including our Mercosur partners) can "sit back and let things play out", because...

[2/]

If you support the agreement as a sign of strengthening ties with like-minded countries in geopolitically turbulent times, this is bad news, because...

➡️ ...the agreement cannot enter into force if the Court rules that it is incompatible with EU constitutional rules.

and...

The European Parliament just voted to request an Art. 218(11) TFEU opinion on the EU-Mercosur Agreement; as is its constitutional prerogative.

www.politico.eu/article/eu-m...

[1/]
EU-Mercosur trade deal stalled as MEPs send it for judicial review
Opponents of the Latin American accord prevail, potentially delaying it for up to two years.
www.politico.eu

This speech was so great, PM Carney deserves the Nobel Prize in Literature! 🏆

Seriously though: This was a tour de force. Uncomfortable, clear-eyed, but not at all hopeless; with lots to think about for policymakers, international lawyers, IR theorists, integration theorists, and many more.
Mark Carney earned a rare standing ovation in Davos. Read the full text of his speech here
Mark Carney earned a rare standing ovation in Davos. Read the full text of his speech here
Carney addressed World Economic Forum Tuesday, expressing his vision for middle powers
www.thestar.com

Reposted by Joris Larik

Denmark and Greenland are not alone.
Good to see my colleagues Troels Lund Poulsen and Vivian Motzfeldt.

Arctic security is a shared transatlantic interest, and one we can discuss with our US allies.
But tariff threats are not the way to go about this. Sovereignty is not for trade. (1/2)
The US pays for Europe's defence? No it doesn't!

Of a $968bn global defence budget, only $33bn is spent in Europe, mostly on US bases which are not NATO bases.

The actual US funding of NATO is approx $600m a year, the same as Germany.

The myth dies on contact with arithmetic.
But Americans who want to save the alliance with Europe must have no illusions about how bad a condition this transatlantic partnership is in.

It’s still all sad, also at a collective psychological level. But this sums it up very nicely. Something cracked indeed. The European reaction, even from voices normally tending to disagree, seems pretty unanimous to me. Enough is enough.

Reposted by Joris Larik

Agree with @gideonrachman.bsky.social excellent column. European appeasement hasn't worked. It's time to try a different approach.