Agathe Demarais
@agathedemarais.com
Geoeconomics @ecfr.eu • Visiting prof @collegeofeurope.bsky.social
Columnist @foreignpolicy.com • Author, Backfire @columbiaup.bsky.social • Advisor, French MFA
Global economy, trade wars, economic statecraft
💌 agathe.demarais@ecfr.eu 🖥️ agathedemarais.com
Columnist @foreignpolicy.com • Author, Backfire @columbiaup.bsky.social • Advisor, French MFA
Global economy, trade wars, economic statecraft
💌 agathe.demarais@ecfr.eu 🖥️ agathedemarais.com
Pinned
Agathe Demarais
@agathedemarais.com
· Sep 18
Ride the wave: A big, beautiful European strategy for Trumponomics
The US president is throwing the EU lots of economic curveballs. Brussels should not be distracted by these; instead, it should double down on adopting measures that will benefit the bloc long after…
ecfr.eu
Which data points are the most useful to understand US-EU relations in the trade, investment and financial fields—and what do these data tell us about the impact of Trumponomics 2.0 on Europe? Here's a selection of 12 charts from my new @ecfr.eu policy brief 👇 [🧵 Thread]
ecfr.eu/publication/...
ecfr.eu/publication/...
China is doubling down on de-risking - reducing reliance on EU and US as export markets
• In 2025 EU and US absorbeb just 25% of China's exports, down from ~40% 20 years ago
• Asean economies are now China's top export markets, with some of them acting as re-export hubs
www.ft.com/content/af1b...
• In 2025 EU and US absorbeb just 25% of China's exports, down from ~40% 20 years ago
• Asean economies are now China's top export markets, with some of them acting as re-export hubs
www.ft.com/content/af1b...
January 19, 2026 at 4:02 PM
China is doubling down on de-risking - reducing reliance on EU and US as export markets
• In 2025 EU and US absorbeb just 25% of China's exports, down from ~40% 20 years ago
• Asean economies are now China's top export markets, with some of them acting as re-export hubs
www.ft.com/content/af1b...
• In 2025 EU and US absorbeb just 25% of China's exports, down from ~40% 20 years ago
• Asean economies are now China's top export markets, with some of them acting as re-export hubs
www.ft.com/content/af1b...
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
Any time you try to use tariffs as a weapon of coersion you're hoping that the other country's exporters are influential enough, and sufficiently exposed, to win a fight which pretty much the rest of their country.
As the UK discovered during Brexit talks, even German automakers have some limits.
As the UK discovered during Brexit talks, even German automakers have some limits.
January 19, 2026 at 2:41 PM
Any time you try to use tariffs as a weapon of coersion you're hoping that the other country's exporters are influential enough, and sufficiently exposed, to win a fight which pretty much the rest of their country.
As the UK discovered during Brexit talks, even German automakers have some limits.
As the UK discovered during Brexit talks, even German automakers have some limits.
Impeccable timing for this @kiel.institute report - "Foreign exporters absorb only about 4% of the tariff burden—the remaining 96% is passed through to US buyers"
www.kielinstitut.de/publications...
www.kielinstitut.de/publications...
America’s Own Goal: Who Pays the Tariffs? - Kiel Institute
www.kielinstitut.de
January 19, 2026 at 2:50 PM
Impeccable timing for this @kiel.institute report - "Foreign exporters absorb only about 4% of the tariff burden—the remaining 96% is passed through to US buyers"
www.kielinstitut.de/publications...
www.kielinstitut.de/publications...
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
There are two reasons to appease Trump now - either to buy time or because you think it unlikely that other political actors in the US can rein him in, making retaliation counter-productive.
January 19, 2026 at 11:59 AM
There are two reasons to appease Trump now - either to buy time or because you think it unlikely that other political actors in the US can rein him in, making retaliation counter-productive.
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
Putin’s spokesman encouraging Trump to seize Greenland: “There are international experts who think that in solving the question of adding Greenland, Trump will go down in history — not just the history of the United States, but world history”. 🇷🇺 can’t believe its luck
www.ft.com/content/4b16...
www.ft.com/content/4b16...
Trump has invited Putin to join ‘Board of Peace’, Kremlin says
Russian president’s spokesperson says Moscow is ‘studying all details of the offer’ to join board overseeing Gaza
www.ft.com
January 19, 2026 at 12:16 PM
Putin’s spokesman encouraging Trump to seize Greenland: “There are international experts who think that in solving the question of adding Greenland, Trump will go down in history — not just the history of the United States, but world history”. 🇷🇺 can’t believe its luck
www.ft.com/content/4b16...
www.ft.com/content/4b16...
Many US firms see uncertainty, not tariffs, as most challenging bit of Trumponomics
• Uncertainty has reached record-highs under Trump 2.0 and it keeps rising
• For companies adjusting supply chains is long-term endeavour, but Trump can undo anything at any time
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
• Uncertainty has reached record-highs under Trump 2.0 and it keeps rising
• For companies adjusting supply chains is long-term endeavour, but Trump can undo anything at any time
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
January 19, 2026 at 11:01 AM
Many US firms see uncertainty, not tariffs, as most challenging bit of Trumponomics
• Uncertainty has reached record-highs under Trump 2.0 and it keeps rising
• For companies adjusting supply chains is long-term endeavour, but Trump can undo anything at any time
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
• Uncertainty has reached record-highs under Trump 2.0 and it keeps rising
• For companies adjusting supply chains is long-term endeavour, but Trump can undo anything at any time
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
Sorry, Europe hasn't "appeased" the US. This media talk doesn't seriously reflect reality. Officials and most likely leaders are well aware of who they are dealing with. There just aren't any great answers which make it all better straight away.
January 19, 2026 at 9:21 AM
Sorry, Europe hasn't "appeased" the US. This media talk doesn't seriously reflect reality. Officials and most likely leaders are well aware of who they are dealing with. There just aren't any great answers which make it all better straight away.
Venezuelans are broadly sanguine about Trump's plans for Venezuela
• 70-80% of Venezuelans think their own economic situation will improve in next 12 months
• Venezuelans are split as to who should control country's oil sector: Caracas, Washington or private firms
www.economist.com/the-americas...
• 70-80% of Venezuelans think their own economic situation will improve in next 12 months
• Venezuelans are split as to who should control country's oil sector: Caracas, Washington or private firms
www.economist.com/the-americas...
January 19, 2026 at 8:00 AM
Venezuelans are broadly sanguine about Trump's plans for Venezuela
• 70-80% of Venezuelans think their own economic situation will improve in next 12 months
• Venezuelans are split as to who should control country's oil sector: Caracas, Washington or private firms
www.economist.com/the-americas...
• 70-80% of Venezuelans think their own economic situation will improve in next 12 months
• Venezuelans are split as to who should control country's oil sector: Caracas, Washington or private firms
www.economist.com/the-americas...
Outbound Chinese FDI in greenfield projects likely hit record in 2025
• Greenfield projects accounted for >85% of $107bn in outbound FDI announced in Q1-3 2025
• Thailand, Indonesia are among biggest recipients of Chinese FDI, deepening Beijing's footprint in Asia
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
• Greenfield projects accounted for >85% of $107bn in outbound FDI announced in Q1-3 2025
• Thailand, Indonesia are among biggest recipients of Chinese FDI, deepening Beijing's footprint in Asia
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
January 16, 2026 at 4:03 PM
Outbound Chinese FDI in greenfield projects likely hit record in 2025
• Greenfield projects accounted for >85% of $107bn in outbound FDI announced in Q1-3 2025
• Thailand, Indonesia are among biggest recipients of Chinese FDI, deepening Beijing's footprint in Asia
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
• Greenfield projects accounted for >85% of $107bn in outbound FDI announced in Q1-3 2025
• Thailand, Indonesia are among biggest recipients of Chinese FDI, deepening Beijing's footprint in Asia
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
Outside military sector, Russia's industrial production hasn't grown since 2021
• Data show how war-related activity is artificially fuelling headline GDP growth
• Leaving defence-related sectors aside, the Russian economy is likely in a recession
Full @piie.com paper: www.piie.com/publications...
• Data show how war-related activity is artificially fuelling headline GDP growth
• Leaving defence-related sectors aside, the Russian economy is likely in a recession
Full @piie.com paper: www.piie.com/publications...
January 16, 2026 at 11:01 AM
Outside military sector, Russia's industrial production hasn't grown since 2021
• Data show how war-related activity is artificially fuelling headline GDP growth
• Leaving defence-related sectors aside, the Russian economy is likely in a recession
Full @piie.com paper: www.piie.com/publications...
• Data show how war-related activity is artificially fuelling headline GDP growth
• Leaving defence-related sectors aside, the Russian economy is likely in a recession
Full @piie.com paper: www.piie.com/publications...
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
"La première raison est le refus de l’UE de répliquer (au choc des droits de douane américains). Politiquement, c’était un aveu de faiblesse, mais cela a permis d’éviter une guerre commerciale, dont les retombées économiques auraient été profondes."
www.lemonde.fr/economie/art...
www.lemonde.fr/economie/art...
« Médiocre, mais résiliente », l’économie européenne résiste aux droits de douane et aux tensions géopolitiques
La croissance de la zone euro (hors Irlande) était d’environ 1 % en 2025 et devrait rester au même niveau cette année.
www.lemonde.fr
January 16, 2026 at 9:18 AM
"La première raison est le refus de l’UE de répliquer (au choc des droits de douane américains). Politiquement, c’était un aveu de faiblesse, mais cela a permis d’éviter une guerre commerciale, dont les retombées économiques auraient été profondes."
www.lemonde.fr/economie/art...
www.lemonde.fr/economie/art...
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
"Europe’s biggest underpriced risk is financial dependence on the United States" I argue for @carnegieeurope.bsky.social.
Great set of 'blind spots' with @cerianbond.bsky.social, @sophiabesch.bsky.social @dimitarh.bsky.social @jakubjanda.bsky.social @alanderminna.bsky.social and more
Great set of 'blind spots' with @cerianbond.bsky.social, @sophiabesch.bsky.social @dimitarh.bsky.social @jakubjanda.bsky.social @alanderminna.bsky.social and more
Taking the Pulse: What Issue Is Europe Ignoring at Its Peril in 2026?
2026 has started in crisis, as the actions of unpredictable leaders shape an increasingly volatile global environment. To shift from crisis response to strategic foresight, what under-the-radar issues...
carnegieendowment.org
January 15, 2026 at 1:44 PM
"Europe’s biggest underpriced risk is financial dependence on the United States" I argue for @carnegieeurope.bsky.social.
Great set of 'blind spots' with @cerianbond.bsky.social, @sophiabesch.bsky.social @dimitarh.bsky.social @jakubjanda.bsky.social @alanderminna.bsky.social and more
Great set of 'blind spots' with @cerianbond.bsky.social, @sophiabesch.bsky.social @dimitarh.bsky.social @jakubjanda.bsky.social @alanderminna.bsky.social and more
KAL's cartoon in The Economist this week
January 16, 2026 at 8:00 AM
KAL's cartoon in The Economist this week
Russia is now pumping much less crude than OPEC quota allows
• Slump comes amid Ukraine attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, low oil prices and stepped-up US sanctions
• Low global oil prices mean exploiting some Russian oil fields may not be a profitable venture
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
• Slump comes amid Ukraine attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, low oil prices and stepped-up US sanctions
• Low global oil prices mean exploiting some Russian oil fields may not be a profitable venture
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
January 15, 2026 at 4:01 PM
Russia is now pumping much less crude than OPEC quota allows
• Slump comes amid Ukraine attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, low oil prices and stepped-up US sanctions
• Low global oil prices mean exploiting some Russian oil fields may not be a profitable venture
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
• Slump comes amid Ukraine attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, low oil prices and stepped-up US sanctions
• Low global oil prices mean exploiting some Russian oil fields may not be a profitable venture
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Despite Trump's tariffs, the US goods trade deficit probably widened in 2025
• In first ten months of 2025, US goods trade deficit rose by 8% year on year (or US$77bn)
• US goods trade deficit with China dropped by 28% yoy - but deficit with many other countries is growing
www.ft.com/content/26f2...
• In first ten months of 2025, US goods trade deficit rose by 8% year on year (or US$77bn)
• US goods trade deficit with China dropped by 28% yoy - but deficit with many other countries is growing
www.ft.com/content/26f2...
January 15, 2026 at 11:02 AM
Despite Trump's tariffs, the US goods trade deficit probably widened in 2025
• In first ten months of 2025, US goods trade deficit rose by 8% year on year (or US$77bn)
• US goods trade deficit with China dropped by 28% yoy - but deficit with many other countries is growing
www.ft.com/content/26f2...
• In first ten months of 2025, US goods trade deficit rose by 8% year on year (or US$77bn)
• US goods trade deficit with China dropped by 28% yoy - but deficit with many other countries is growing
www.ft.com/content/26f2...
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
Drop in Russian electricity consumption last year, for the first time in 4 years. Partly warm weather but also suggests economic problems www.kommersant.ru/doc/8341555
Нерастраченная энергия
Энергопотребление в России снизилось впервые за четыре года
www.kommersant.ru
January 15, 2026 at 10:08 AM
Drop in Russian electricity consumption last year, for the first time in 4 years. Partly warm weather but also suggests economic problems www.kommersant.ru/doc/8341555
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
Interesting suggestion from EBRD chief economist that countries will suffer policy lock in once the electorate ages, and so there is an urgency to acting early
November 26, 2025 at 7:12 AM
Interesting suggestion from EBRD chief economist that countries will suffer policy lock in once the electorate ages, and so there is an urgency to acting early
Trump's bid on Venezuelan oil is unlikely to pay off - at least in short term
• Country accounts for just 1% of global oil production, roughly on par with Oman
• Propping up output back to 2010 level could require US$110bn in investments at time of low oil prices
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
• Country accounts for just 1% of global oil production, roughly on par with Oman
• Propping up output back to 2010 level could require US$110bn in investments at time of low oil prices
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
January 15, 2026 at 8:00 AM
Trump's bid on Venezuelan oil is unlikely to pay off - at least in short term
• Country accounts for just 1% of global oil production, roughly on par with Oman
• Propping up output back to 2010 level could require US$110bn in investments at time of low oil prices
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
• Country accounts for just 1% of global oil production, roughly on par with Oman
• Propping up output back to 2010 level could require US$110bn in investments at time of low oil prices
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
Let’s see whether Venezuela finds the will to do right by its long-suffering population. If so, the IMF would have an important role to play.
www.atlanticcouncil.org/dispatches/h...
www.atlanticcouncil.org/dispatches/h...
How the IMF can help Venezuela stabilize its economy
The institution can bring financing and technical assistance to a Venezuelan debt restructuring—and in a way the prevents preferential treatment to Chinese creditors.
www.atlanticcouncil.org
January 14, 2026 at 4:36 PM
Let’s see whether Venezuela finds the will to do right by its long-suffering population. If so, the IMF would have an important role to play.
www.atlanticcouncil.org/dispatches/h...
www.atlanticcouncil.org/dispatches/h...
Artificial Intelligence investment boom is driving revival of US nuclear sector
• Big Tech likes nuclear because it provides clean power without any risk of intermittency
• Trump has embraced atomic energy, pledging to slash regulation and invest massively to power AI boom
www.ft.com/content/9f6c...
• Big Tech likes nuclear because it provides clean power without any risk of intermittency
• Trump has embraced atomic energy, pledging to slash regulation and invest massively to power AI boom
www.ft.com/content/9f6c...
January 14, 2026 at 4:01 PM
Artificial Intelligence investment boom is driving revival of US nuclear sector
• Big Tech likes nuclear because it provides clean power without any risk of intermittency
• Trump has embraced atomic energy, pledging to slash regulation and invest massively to power AI boom
www.ft.com/content/9f6c...
• Big Tech likes nuclear because it provides clean power without any risk of intermittency
• Trump has embraced atomic energy, pledging to slash regulation and invest massively to power AI boom
www.ft.com/content/9f6c...
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
First article of the year. Look behind the EU-Mercosur headlines to see a split EU in which a centrist French government seems en route to rejecting the common commercial policy.
"The battle for Mercosur may be won this year, this though should not cover up how much the EU is struggling for direction in adjusting to a new world."
✍️ @davidheniguk.bsky.social looks at the implications of the recent EU-Mercosur trade agreement
🔗 ukandeu.ac.uk/the-mercosur...
✍️ @davidheniguk.bsky.social looks at the implications of the recent EU-Mercosur trade agreement
🔗 ukandeu.ac.uk/the-mercosur...
The Mercosur agreement exposes dangerously divided EU - UK in a changing Europe
David Henig looks at the recent EU-Mercosur trade agreement.
ukandeu.ac.uk
January 14, 2026 at 12:30 PM
First article of the year. Look behind the EU-Mercosur headlines to see a split EU in which a centrist French government seems en route to rejecting the common commercial policy.
US Supreme Court will soon issue decision on legality of tariffs
• >1,000 firms are involved in legal fight, hoping to get refunds if Court finds levies to be illegal
• Trump said he would use other legal authorities to reimpose tariffs if they are deemed illegal
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
• >1,000 firms are involved in legal fight, hoping to get refunds if Court finds levies to be illegal
• Trump said he would use other legal authorities to reimpose tariffs if they are deemed illegal
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
January 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM
US Supreme Court will soon issue decision on legality of tariffs
• >1,000 firms are involved in legal fight, hoping to get refunds if Court finds levies to be illegal
• Trump said he would use other legal authorities to reimpose tariffs if they are deemed illegal
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
• >1,000 firms are involved in legal fight, hoping to get refunds if Court finds levies to be illegal
• Trump said he would use other legal authorities to reimpose tariffs if they are deemed illegal
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
China’s urban population is dropping (and it is no longer the biggest in the world)
• Country's urban population could fall by more than 13m by 2029, reflecting country's bleak demographic outlook
• China’s urban decline could deepen woes of Chinese property market
www.economist.com/china/2026/0...
• Country's urban population could fall by more than 13m by 2029, reflecting country's bleak demographic outlook
• China’s urban decline could deepen woes of Chinese property market
www.economist.com/china/2026/0...
January 14, 2026 at 8:00 AM
China’s urban population is dropping (and it is no longer the biggest in the world)
• Country's urban population could fall by more than 13m by 2029, reflecting country's bleak demographic outlook
• China’s urban decline could deepen woes of Chinese property market
www.economist.com/china/2026/0...
• Country's urban population could fall by more than 13m by 2029, reflecting country's bleak demographic outlook
• China’s urban decline could deepen woes of Chinese property market
www.economist.com/china/2026/0...
Trump has announced 25%-tariff on countries doing business with Iran
• China is Iran's biggest trade partner, meaning tariffs could upend current US-China trade truce
• Other economies potentially affected by tariffs include UAE, Turkey and some EU member states
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
• China is Iran's biggest trade partner, meaning tariffs could upend current US-China trade truce
• Other economies potentially affected by tariffs include UAE, Turkey and some EU member states
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
January 13, 2026 at 4:02 PM
Trump has announced 25%-tariff on countries doing business with Iran
• China is Iran's biggest trade partner, meaning tariffs could upend current US-China trade truce
• Other economies potentially affected by tariffs include UAE, Turkey and some EU member states
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
• China is Iran's biggest trade partner, meaning tariffs could upend current US-China trade truce
• Other economies potentially affected by tariffs include UAE, Turkey and some EU member states
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reposted by Agathe Demarais
Nah. It is making France fear for its political clout in Europe and the world. As @claudmajor.bsky.social says in the piece, that says more about France than it does about Germany.
Germany is boosting its defense spending to levels that its allies can't match — and that's making some of them nervous
Germany’s Growing Military Might Rekindles Old Fears in France
The unease is acute in Paris, where some worry that the continent’s center of political gravity is moving east as Berlin boosts its defense spending to levels its allies can’t match.
bloom.bg
January 13, 2026 at 11:20 AM
Nah. It is making France fear for its political clout in Europe and the world. As @claudmajor.bsky.social says in the piece, that says more about France than it does about Germany.