Agathe Demarais
@agathedemarais.com
Geoeconomics @ecfr.eu • Visiting prof @collegeofeurope.bsky.social
Columnist @foreignpolicy.com • Author, Backfire @columbiaup.bsky.social • Advisor, French MFA
Global economy, trade wars, economic statecraft
💌 agathe.demarais@ecfr.eu 🖥️ agathedemarais.com
Columnist @foreignpolicy.com • Author, Backfire @columbiaup.bsky.social • Advisor, French MFA
Global economy, trade wars, economic statecraft
💌 agathe.demarais@ecfr.eu 🖥️ agathedemarais.com
China is doubling down on de-risking - reducing reliance on EU and US as export markets
• In 2025 EU and US absorbeb just 25% of China's exports, down from ~40% 20 years ago
• Asean economies are now China's top export markets, with some of them acting as re-export hubs
www.ft.com/content/af1b...
• In 2025 EU and US absorbeb just 25% of China's exports, down from ~40% 20 years ago
• Asean economies are now China's top export markets, with some of them acting as re-export hubs
www.ft.com/content/af1b...
January 19, 2026 at 4:02 PM
China is doubling down on de-risking - reducing reliance on EU and US as export markets
• In 2025 EU and US absorbeb just 25% of China's exports, down from ~40% 20 years ago
• Asean economies are now China's top export markets, with some of them acting as re-export hubs
www.ft.com/content/af1b...
• In 2025 EU and US absorbeb just 25% of China's exports, down from ~40% 20 years ago
• Asean economies are now China's top export markets, with some of them acting as re-export hubs
www.ft.com/content/af1b...
Many US firms see uncertainty, not tariffs, as most challenging bit of Trumponomics
• Uncertainty has reached record-highs under Trump 2.0 and it keeps rising
• For companies adjusting supply chains is long-term endeavour, but Trump can undo anything at any time
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
• Uncertainty has reached record-highs under Trump 2.0 and it keeps rising
• For companies adjusting supply chains is long-term endeavour, but Trump can undo anything at any time
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
January 19, 2026 at 11:01 AM
Many US firms see uncertainty, not tariffs, as most challenging bit of Trumponomics
• Uncertainty has reached record-highs under Trump 2.0 and it keeps rising
• For companies adjusting supply chains is long-term endeavour, but Trump can undo anything at any time
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
• Uncertainty has reached record-highs under Trump 2.0 and it keeps rising
• For companies adjusting supply chains is long-term endeavour, but Trump can undo anything at any time
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Venezuelans are broadly sanguine about Trump's plans for Venezuela
• 70-80% of Venezuelans think their own economic situation will improve in next 12 months
• Venezuelans are split as to who should control country's oil sector: Caracas, Washington or private firms
www.economist.com/the-americas...
• 70-80% of Venezuelans think their own economic situation will improve in next 12 months
• Venezuelans are split as to who should control country's oil sector: Caracas, Washington or private firms
www.economist.com/the-americas...
January 19, 2026 at 8:00 AM
Venezuelans are broadly sanguine about Trump's plans for Venezuela
• 70-80% of Venezuelans think their own economic situation will improve in next 12 months
• Venezuelans are split as to who should control country's oil sector: Caracas, Washington or private firms
www.economist.com/the-americas...
• 70-80% of Venezuelans think their own economic situation will improve in next 12 months
• Venezuelans are split as to who should control country's oil sector: Caracas, Washington or private firms
www.economist.com/the-americas...
Outbound Chinese FDI in greenfield projects likely hit record in 2025
• Greenfield projects accounted for >85% of $107bn in outbound FDI announced in Q1-3 2025
• Thailand, Indonesia are among biggest recipients of Chinese FDI, deepening Beijing's footprint in Asia
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
• Greenfield projects accounted for >85% of $107bn in outbound FDI announced in Q1-3 2025
• Thailand, Indonesia are among biggest recipients of Chinese FDI, deepening Beijing's footprint in Asia
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
January 16, 2026 at 4:03 PM
Outbound Chinese FDI in greenfield projects likely hit record in 2025
• Greenfield projects accounted for >85% of $107bn in outbound FDI announced in Q1-3 2025
• Thailand, Indonesia are among biggest recipients of Chinese FDI, deepening Beijing's footprint in Asia
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
• Greenfield projects accounted for >85% of $107bn in outbound FDI announced in Q1-3 2025
• Thailand, Indonesia are among biggest recipients of Chinese FDI, deepening Beijing's footprint in Asia
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
Outside military sector, Russia's industrial production hasn't grown since 2021
• Data show how war-related activity is artificially fuelling headline GDP growth
• Leaving defence-related sectors aside, the Russian economy is likely in a recession
Full @piie.com paper: www.piie.com/publications...
• Data show how war-related activity is artificially fuelling headline GDP growth
• Leaving defence-related sectors aside, the Russian economy is likely in a recession
Full @piie.com paper: www.piie.com/publications...
January 16, 2026 at 11:01 AM
Outside military sector, Russia's industrial production hasn't grown since 2021
• Data show how war-related activity is artificially fuelling headline GDP growth
• Leaving defence-related sectors aside, the Russian economy is likely in a recession
Full @piie.com paper: www.piie.com/publications...
• Data show how war-related activity is artificially fuelling headline GDP growth
• Leaving defence-related sectors aside, the Russian economy is likely in a recession
Full @piie.com paper: www.piie.com/publications...
KAL's cartoon in The Economist this week
January 16, 2026 at 8:00 AM
KAL's cartoon in The Economist this week
Russia is now pumping much less crude than OPEC quota allows
• Slump comes amid Ukraine attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, low oil prices and stepped-up US sanctions
• Low global oil prices mean exploiting some Russian oil fields may not be a profitable venture
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
• Slump comes amid Ukraine attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, low oil prices and stepped-up US sanctions
• Low global oil prices mean exploiting some Russian oil fields may not be a profitable venture
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
January 15, 2026 at 4:01 PM
Russia is now pumping much less crude than OPEC quota allows
• Slump comes amid Ukraine attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, low oil prices and stepped-up US sanctions
• Low global oil prices mean exploiting some Russian oil fields may not be a profitable venture
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
• Slump comes amid Ukraine attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, low oil prices and stepped-up US sanctions
• Low global oil prices mean exploiting some Russian oil fields may not be a profitable venture
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Despite Trump's tariffs, the US goods trade deficit probably widened in 2025
• In first ten months of 2025, US goods trade deficit rose by 8% year on year (or US$77bn)
• US goods trade deficit with China dropped by 28% yoy - but deficit with many other countries is growing
www.ft.com/content/26f2...
• In first ten months of 2025, US goods trade deficit rose by 8% year on year (or US$77bn)
• US goods trade deficit with China dropped by 28% yoy - but deficit with many other countries is growing
www.ft.com/content/26f2...
January 15, 2026 at 11:02 AM
Despite Trump's tariffs, the US goods trade deficit probably widened in 2025
• In first ten months of 2025, US goods trade deficit rose by 8% year on year (or US$77bn)
• US goods trade deficit with China dropped by 28% yoy - but deficit with many other countries is growing
www.ft.com/content/26f2...
• In first ten months of 2025, US goods trade deficit rose by 8% year on year (or US$77bn)
• US goods trade deficit with China dropped by 28% yoy - but deficit with many other countries is growing
www.ft.com/content/26f2...
Trump's bid on Venezuelan oil is unlikely to pay off - at least in short term
• Country accounts for just 1% of global oil production, roughly on par with Oman
• Propping up output back to 2010 level could require US$110bn in investments at time of low oil prices
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
• Country accounts for just 1% of global oil production, roughly on par with Oman
• Propping up output back to 2010 level could require US$110bn in investments at time of low oil prices
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
January 15, 2026 at 8:00 AM
Trump's bid on Venezuelan oil is unlikely to pay off - at least in short term
• Country accounts for just 1% of global oil production, roughly on par with Oman
• Propping up output back to 2010 level could require US$110bn in investments at time of low oil prices
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
• Country accounts for just 1% of global oil production, roughly on par with Oman
• Propping up output back to 2010 level could require US$110bn in investments at time of low oil prices
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Artificial Intelligence investment boom is driving revival of US nuclear sector
• Big Tech likes nuclear because it provides clean power without any risk of intermittency
• Trump has embraced atomic energy, pledging to slash regulation and invest massively to power AI boom
www.ft.com/content/9f6c...
• Big Tech likes nuclear because it provides clean power without any risk of intermittency
• Trump has embraced atomic energy, pledging to slash regulation and invest massively to power AI boom
www.ft.com/content/9f6c...
January 14, 2026 at 4:01 PM
Artificial Intelligence investment boom is driving revival of US nuclear sector
• Big Tech likes nuclear because it provides clean power without any risk of intermittency
• Trump has embraced atomic energy, pledging to slash regulation and invest massively to power AI boom
www.ft.com/content/9f6c...
• Big Tech likes nuclear because it provides clean power without any risk of intermittency
• Trump has embraced atomic energy, pledging to slash regulation and invest massively to power AI boom
www.ft.com/content/9f6c...
US Supreme Court will soon issue decision on legality of tariffs
• >1,000 firms are involved in legal fight, hoping to get refunds if Court finds levies to be illegal
• Trump said he would use other legal authorities to reimpose tariffs if they are deemed illegal
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
• >1,000 firms are involved in legal fight, hoping to get refunds if Court finds levies to be illegal
• Trump said he would use other legal authorities to reimpose tariffs if they are deemed illegal
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
January 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM
US Supreme Court will soon issue decision on legality of tariffs
• >1,000 firms are involved in legal fight, hoping to get refunds if Court finds levies to be illegal
• Trump said he would use other legal authorities to reimpose tariffs if they are deemed illegal
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
• >1,000 firms are involved in legal fight, hoping to get refunds if Court finds levies to be illegal
• Trump said he would use other legal authorities to reimpose tariffs if they are deemed illegal
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
China’s urban population is dropping (and it is no longer the biggest in the world)
• Country's urban population could fall by more than 13m by 2029, reflecting country's bleak demographic outlook
• China’s urban decline could deepen woes of Chinese property market
www.economist.com/china/2026/0...
• Country's urban population could fall by more than 13m by 2029, reflecting country's bleak demographic outlook
• China’s urban decline could deepen woes of Chinese property market
www.economist.com/china/2026/0...
January 14, 2026 at 8:00 AM
China’s urban population is dropping (and it is no longer the biggest in the world)
• Country's urban population could fall by more than 13m by 2029, reflecting country's bleak demographic outlook
• China’s urban decline could deepen woes of Chinese property market
www.economist.com/china/2026/0...
• Country's urban population could fall by more than 13m by 2029, reflecting country's bleak demographic outlook
• China’s urban decline could deepen woes of Chinese property market
www.economist.com/china/2026/0...
Trump has announced 25%-tariff on countries doing business with Iran
• China is Iran's biggest trade partner, meaning tariffs could upend current US-China trade truce
• Other economies potentially affected by tariffs include UAE, Turkey and some EU member states
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
• China is Iran's biggest trade partner, meaning tariffs could upend current US-China trade truce
• Other economies potentially affected by tariffs include UAE, Turkey and some EU member states
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
January 13, 2026 at 4:02 PM
Trump has announced 25%-tariff on countries doing business with Iran
• China is Iran's biggest trade partner, meaning tariffs could upend current US-China trade truce
• Other economies potentially affected by tariffs include UAE, Turkey and some EU member states
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
• China is Iran's biggest trade partner, meaning tariffs could upend current US-China trade truce
• Other economies potentially affected by tariffs include UAE, Turkey and some EU member states
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
China holds a 30+% global market share for the production of many modern staples
• China accounted for over a quarter of world's manufacturing output in 2024
• China’s bet is to reduce dependence on other countries while increasing their reliance on its supply chains
www.ft.com/content/079f...
• China accounted for over a quarter of world's manufacturing output in 2024
• China’s bet is to reduce dependence on other countries while increasing their reliance on its supply chains
www.ft.com/content/079f...
January 13, 2026 at 11:02 AM
China holds a 30+% global market share for the production of many modern staples
• China accounted for over a quarter of world's manufacturing output in 2024
• China’s bet is to reduce dependence on other countries while increasing their reliance on its supply chains
www.ft.com/content/079f...
• China accounted for over a quarter of world's manufacturing output in 2024
• China’s bet is to reduce dependence on other countries while increasing their reliance on its supply chains
www.ft.com/content/079f...
Brazil's oil boom could turn out to be short-lived
• By 2030 Brazil’s pre-salt oil fields could turn country into world’s fourth-largest oil producer
• Yet without new discoveries to keep exports going, Brazil could once again become an oil importer from 2040
www.economist.com/the-americas...
• By 2030 Brazil’s pre-salt oil fields could turn country into world’s fourth-largest oil producer
• Yet without new discoveries to keep exports going, Brazil could once again become an oil importer from 2040
www.economist.com/the-americas...
January 13, 2026 at 8:01 AM
Brazil's oil boom could turn out to be short-lived
• By 2030 Brazil’s pre-salt oil fields could turn country into world’s fourth-largest oil producer
• Yet without new discoveries to keep exports going, Brazil could once again become an oil importer from 2040
www.economist.com/the-americas...
• By 2030 Brazil’s pre-salt oil fields could turn country into world’s fourth-largest oil producer
• Yet without new discoveries to keep exports going, Brazil could once again become an oil importer from 2040
www.economist.com/the-americas...
China's manufacturing output is (almost) equivalent to that of US and euro zone - combined
• China’s share of global manufacturing value added stands at 28% and could keep rising
• China produces more than 30% of global supply of batteries, mobile phones, chip parts and computers
• China’s share of global manufacturing value added stands at 28% and could keep rising
• China produces more than 30% of global supply of batteries, mobile phones, chip parts and computers
January 12, 2026 at 11:00 AM
China's manufacturing output is (almost) equivalent to that of US and euro zone - combined
• China’s share of global manufacturing value added stands at 28% and could keep rising
• China produces more than 30% of global supply of batteries, mobile phones, chip parts and computers
• China’s share of global manufacturing value added stands at 28% and could keep rising
• China produces more than 30% of global supply of batteries, mobile phones, chip parts and computers
China's car exports to Europe rose by 26% year on year in Jan-Nov 2025
• Data show how EU tariffs did not produce plunge in EU imports of Chinese-made cars
• Chinese hybrid cars do not face tariffs, possibly explaining steep rise in EU imports of such vehicles
www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
• Data show how EU tariffs did not produce plunge in EU imports of Chinese-made cars
• Chinese hybrid cars do not face tariffs, possibly explaining steep rise in EU imports of such vehicles
www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
January 12, 2026 at 8:01 AM
China's car exports to Europe rose by 26% year on year in Jan-Nov 2025
• Data show how EU tariffs did not produce plunge in EU imports of Chinese-made cars
• Chinese hybrid cars do not face tariffs, possibly explaining steep rise in EU imports of such vehicles
www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
• Data show how EU tariffs did not produce plunge in EU imports of Chinese-made cars
• Chinese hybrid cars do not face tariffs, possibly explaining steep rise in EU imports of such vehicles
www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
US AI boom is smaller than previous investment booms
• At ~1% of US GDP, boom is similar in size to 2010s US shale boom and half as large as dot-com boom of 1990s
• Investment booms typically don't translate into medium-term increase in GDP growth
Full @bis.org study www.bis.org/publ/bisbull...
• At ~1% of US GDP, boom is similar in size to 2010s US shale boom and half as large as dot-com boom of 1990s
• Investment booms typically don't translate into medium-term increase in GDP growth
Full @bis.org study www.bis.org/publ/bisbull...
January 9, 2026 at 11:01 AM
US AI boom is smaller than previous investment booms
• At ~1% of US GDP, boom is similar in size to 2010s US shale boom and half as large as dot-com boom of 1990s
• Investment booms typically don't translate into medium-term increase in GDP growth
Full @bis.org study www.bis.org/publ/bisbull...
• At ~1% of US GDP, boom is similar in size to 2010s US shale boom and half as large as dot-com boom of 1990s
• Investment booms typically don't translate into medium-term increase in GDP growth
Full @bis.org study www.bis.org/publ/bisbull...
24m Americans had healthcare plans through marketplaces created by Affordable Care Act
• 60-year-old couple with $85,000 income could see annual payments rise by more than $22,600
• Facing such increases, more than 3.5m people could be driven off their plans by 2027
www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
• 60-year-old couple with $85,000 income could see annual payments rise by more than $22,600
• Facing such increases, more than 3.5m people could be driven off their plans by 2027
www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
January 9, 2026 at 8:00 AM
24m Americans had healthcare plans through marketplaces created by Affordable Care Act
• 60-year-old couple with $85,000 income could see annual payments rise by more than $22,600
• Facing such increases, more than 3.5m people could be driven off their plans by 2027
www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
• 60-year-old couple with $85,000 income could see annual payments rise by more than $22,600
• Facing such increases, more than 3.5m people could be driven off their plans by 2027
www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
In 2025 the EU (very) probably overtook China as economy with which US runs its largest trade deficit
• In first ten months of 2025 the US trade deficit widened by 8% year on year — or US$77bn
• America's trade deficit with China dropped by 28%, while deficit with EU remained broadly stable
• In first ten months of 2025 the US trade deficit widened by 8% year on year — or US$77bn
• America's trade deficit with China dropped by 28%, while deficit with EU remained broadly stable
January 8, 2026 at 4:01 PM
In 2025 the EU (very) probably overtook China as economy with which US runs its largest trade deficit
• In first ten months of 2025 the US trade deficit widened by 8% year on year — or US$77bn
• America's trade deficit with China dropped by 28%, while deficit with EU remained broadly stable
• In first ten months of 2025 the US trade deficit widened by 8% year on year — or US$77bn
• America's trade deficit with China dropped by 28%, while deficit with EU remained broadly stable
Returns to shareholders of European defence firms have risen steeply since start of war in Ukraine
• Europe’s defence groups returned US$5bn to shareholders in 2025, up from US$2bn in 2021
• In parallel, returns to shareholders of US defence firms are dropping steadily
www.ft.com/content/79c3...
• Europe’s defence groups returned US$5bn to shareholders in 2025, up from US$2bn in 2021
• In parallel, returns to shareholders of US defence firms are dropping steadily
www.ft.com/content/79c3...
January 8, 2026 at 11:01 AM
Returns to shareholders of European defence firms have risen steeply since start of war in Ukraine
• Europe’s defence groups returned US$5bn to shareholders in 2025, up from US$2bn in 2021
• In parallel, returns to shareholders of US defence firms are dropping steadily
www.ft.com/content/79c3...
• Europe’s defence groups returned US$5bn to shareholders in 2025, up from US$2bn in 2021
• In parallel, returns to shareholders of US defence firms are dropping steadily
www.ft.com/content/79c3...
In US enrolment in two-year vocational programmes has grown by 20% since 2020
• Earning prospects of many skilled technicians are above those of uni graduates in humanities
• 40% of unfilled jobs for chip manufacturing are technician roles requiring two-year degree
www.economist.com/internationa...
• Earning prospects of many skilled technicians are above those of uni graduates in humanities
• 40% of unfilled jobs for chip manufacturing are technician roles requiring two-year degree
www.economist.com/internationa...
January 8, 2026 at 8:00 AM
In US enrolment in two-year vocational programmes has grown by 20% since 2020
• Earning prospects of many skilled technicians are above those of uni graduates in humanities
• 40% of unfilled jobs for chip manufacturing are technician roles requiring two-year degree
www.economist.com/internationa...
• Earning prospects of many skilled technicians are above those of uni graduates in humanities
• 40% of unfilled jobs for chip manufacturing are technician roles requiring two-year degree
www.economist.com/internationa...
Interest rates for loans to AI firms are similar to those for non-AI firms
• This contrasts with high valuations of AI firms, which imply big future returns
• Either lenders underestimate AI investment risks or markets overestimate future AI cash flows
Full @bis.org study www.bis.org/publ/bisbull...
• This contrasts with high valuations of AI firms, which imply big future returns
• Either lenders underestimate AI investment risks or markets overestimate future AI cash flows
Full @bis.org study www.bis.org/publ/bisbull...
January 7, 2026 at 4:01 PM
Interest rates for loans to AI firms are similar to those for non-AI firms
• This contrasts with high valuations of AI firms, which imply big future returns
• Either lenders underestimate AI investment risks or markets overestimate future AI cash flows
Full @bis.org study www.bis.org/publ/bisbull...
• This contrasts with high valuations of AI firms, which imply big future returns
• Either lenders underestimate AI investment risks or markets overestimate future AI cash flows
Full @bis.org study www.bis.org/publ/bisbull...
Switzerland's wealth management firms manage more than US$2.5trn in assets
• Swiss-managed pool of assets is roughly equivalent to size of entire Italian economy
• Strength of Swiss franc, which is among best-performing major currencies, supports country's appeal
www.ft.com/content/3e04...
• Swiss-managed pool of assets is roughly equivalent to size of entire Italian economy
• Strength of Swiss franc, which is among best-performing major currencies, supports country's appeal
www.ft.com/content/3e04...
January 7, 2026 at 11:01 AM
Switzerland's wealth management firms manage more than US$2.5trn in assets
• Swiss-managed pool of assets is roughly equivalent to size of entire Italian economy
• Strength of Swiss franc, which is among best-performing major currencies, supports country's appeal
www.ft.com/content/3e04...
• Swiss-managed pool of assets is roughly equivalent to size of entire Italian economy
• Strength of Swiss franc, which is among best-performing major currencies, supports country's appeal
www.ft.com/content/3e04...
Russia's slow advances in Ukraine come at an enormous human cost
• Between 1m and 1.35m Russian soldiers could have been killed or wounded in the war so far
• Data mean that around 1% of Russia’s pre-war male population of fighting age may have died in Ukraine
www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
• Between 1m and 1.35m Russian soldiers could have been killed or wounded in the war so far
• Data mean that around 1% of Russia’s pre-war male population of fighting age may have died in Ukraine
www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
January 7, 2026 at 8:01 AM
Russia's slow advances in Ukraine come at an enormous human cost
• Between 1m and 1.35m Russian soldiers could have been killed or wounded in the war so far
• Data mean that around 1% of Russia’s pre-war male population of fighting age may have died in Ukraine
www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
• Between 1m and 1.35m Russian soldiers could have been killed or wounded in the war so far
• Data mean that around 1% of Russia’s pre-war male population of fighting age may have died in Ukraine
www.economist.com/graphic-deta...