Bryan Lawrence
atmbnl.bsky.social
Bryan Lawrence
@atmbnl.bsky.social

Prof of Weather and Climate Computing, UK National Centre for Atmospheric Science and University of Reading. Expat kiwi. Walker. Currently mainly at @bnlawrence@mastodon.nz

Environmental science 31%
Computer science 30%

Reposted by Bryan Lawrence

Reposted by Bryan Lawrence

A thread on Felix Klein, Emmy Noether, and credit where credit is due.

Felix Klein gave a lecture at the Mathematical Society of Göttingen #OTD in 1918. The title was “On Hilbert’s first note on the foundations of physics." 🧪 ⚛️ 👩‍🔬

I am heartily sick of getting invitations to important meetings with strategic implications with only two or three weeks warning. It’s like people think we are sitting with empty diaries desperate to prioritise their meeting!

NERC, UKSA I’m looking at you!

I cancelled mine for your country last year, so I too regret I can do nothing useful this time!

Reposted by Bryan Lawrence

Pre-emptive obedience everywhere ... I am curious to know if even Hitler or Putin had a ride this easy? (Serious question, and I don't know the answer). What happened to en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Home_of... ?
Researchers spend approximately 45% of their time on administrative activities related to #grants rather than actual #research. The current #competition in research #funding has significant drawbacks; evidence-based improvements of the funding system are required: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
The costs of competition in distributing scarce research funds | PNAS
Research funding systems fundamentally influence how science operates. This paper aims to analyze the allocation of competitive research funding fr...
www.pnas.org

“Scenarios are not forecasts because they are not aiming to be accurate, but to be useful”

My one foray into the epidemiological literature ended up in our paper being rejected precisely because the reviewers (and the editor) did not understand the distinction between a scenario and a forecast!

Reposted by Bryan Lawrence

Bravo Sabine!

Must watch:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=P6EM...
Climate Scientists are Very Confused.
YouTube video by Sabine Hossenfelder
www.youtube.com
Climate scientists be like..

Reposted by Bryan Lawrence

Ooohhhh, climate change is real when a golf course is involved but not when 8 billion lives are.

Got it.
"A Triple Threat to Humanity: Climate Change, Pandemics, and Anti-Science" | My new article with Peter Hotez in #SkepticalInquirer: skepticalinquirer.org/2024/12/a-tr...
A Triple Threat to Humanity: Climate Change, Pandemics, and Anti-Science | Skeptical Inquirer
Over the past decade, many of us in the scientific community have come to appreciate the existential threat we face today—a threat unlike any we’ve witnesse ...
skepticalinquirer.org

Reposted by Bryan Lawrence

72% of polio cases are asymptomatic.
24% get a sore throat or fever.
1-5% headache and neck stiffness (meningitis).
0.1–0.5% paralysis.

Can you imagine the internet with a polio epidemic where >99.5% of people are totally fine?

Reposted by Bryan Lawrence

This one wins

Reposted by Bryan Lawrence

Come work at He Pou A Rangi, New Zealand's Climate Change Commission, as General Manager, Evidence and Advice. This leadership role will steer the Commission's multi-year work programme providing independent advice and monitoring of climate action.

centralagenciesjobs.cass.govt.nz/jobdetails/a...

Reposted by Bryan Lawrence

The psychological challenge of climate change - our brains are hard-wired to respond to immediate threats, not a slow-motion disaster happening at a global scale (and that's not even considering the tsunami of misinformation hitting us every day).

Reposted by Bryan Lawrence

“Farmers are driven to poor practice by the pressure to increase short-term yields.”

Add soil salinity to the long list of reasons why our food system is teetering on collapse.

Building this system around shareholder profit, rather than feeding people, may well be humanity’s greatest mistake.
Global food production at increased risk from excess salt in soil, UN report warns
Scientists say climate crisis and poor agricultural practices to blame with serious implications for crop yields
www.theguardian.com

Kudos to Australia for having an Earth System Science plan … which is in part about prediction, which is good, since they seem to have launched it next year

Reposted by Bryan Lawrence

Anyone interested in #climatepolicy out there?

Take 2 min to watch/read below how we're building the next generation of #EarthSystemModels and Integrated Assessment Models tailored to inform mitigation strategies in support of achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement.👇https://bit.ly/ESM2025video
ESM2025 EU research project
This is the presentation video of ESM2025 EU research project on Earth system model development.ESM2025 is a European research project on Earth System modell...
www.youtube.com

(Sorry, the alt text is truncated, but suffice to say there is a long list of stuff which is all very nice, but doesn’t fit my definition of sustainability.). Reinforces my already low impression of the value of these things!

Another set of bogus university rankings came out today (I think). They have sustainability ratings. Great, I think. Then I look at them, and I go, “What? Huh?” Then I look up the weightings. Their definition of sustainable is not mine!

Then of course there’s are DSLs!

I’m not sure that’s true! Some vendors are hand in glove with some modelling groups trying to address this sort of thing.

You just don’t remember! It was a requirement before you got your first cows milk!

Reposted by Bryan Lawrence

The regional climate sensitivity of ESMs (dXreg/dTglob) is found to be mostly independent from the ESMs' global climate sensitivity (dTglob/dCO2). Hence "hot models" can be used to derive regional climate changes as function of global warming
See also:
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

Reposted by Bryan Lawrence

We call it Earth only because we're land dwellers. This image shows how massive the Pacific Ocean is, covering 1/3 of the Earth's surface.
This cloudless image of the Earth centered on the Pacific was produced by NOAA satellites, which took photos over eleven ten-day periods and merged them.

Reposted by Bryan Lawrence

Absolute class from @slanecartoon.bsky.social in the #NZListener

Reposted by Bryan Lawrence

Reposted by Bryan Lawrence

Dear BBC, please do not call anti-vaxxers “vaccine sceptics”. It implies there exists doubt about vaccines. 70-odd years ago we had large numbers of people paralysed or in iron lungs. We don’t see that today and for that we can thank the Salk vaccine.

Reposted by Bryan Lawrence

Okay. Someone has a sense of humor and has definitely heard him speak

Reposted by Bryan Lawrence

Don’t forget Valencia, Spain.

Don’t forget those who insisted that actions needed to avoid the #ClimateCrisis were “too expensive.”

Don’t forget all the record-breaking, historic or “100 year” events we’ve seen lately.

They’re not the “new normal.

It’s going to keep getting exponentially worse.