ESM2025
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ESM2025
@esm2025.bsky.social
🌍 H2020 EU project developing the next-generation of Earth system models in support of the Paris Agreement.
From groundbreaking research to policymaking & education.
🌐 www.esm2025.eu | #ClimateResearchNet
- Ended 30/11/2025 -
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Today, ESM2025 officially comes to an end!

Since 2021, our European consortium has been building a new generation of Earth System Models to support mitigation & adaptation strategies aligned with the Paris Agreement. Watch these clips of our final video to see how far we've come!
🧵👇

#ESM2025isOver
ESM2025 co-organised three policy fora with the European Commission, bringing together the EU comission and researchers to discuss carbon budgets, overshoot risks, land-based mitigation and the role of Earth System Models in climate policy.

#ESM2025isOver
February 8, 2026 at 7:59 PM
ESM2025 also created new classroom-ready resources on climate modelling and curated material from EU climate projects — helping teachers bring up-to-date science into their lessons.
Another way an EU research project can strengthen climate literacy across Europe.

#ESM2025isOver
February 5, 2026 at 8:01 AM
A standout part of ESM2025 was its investment in climate education.
Through the Climate Education Summer Universities (CESUs), teachers from across Europe met researchers, explored climate processes and uncertainties, and exchanged approaches to climate teaching.

#ESM2025isOver
February 2, 2026 at 8:56 AM
ESM2025 explored climate behaviour after net-zero CO₂. Cumulative emissions remain a strong predictor of warming, but small deviations can shift when temperatures peak — a critical insight for assessing overshoot pathways.

#ESM2025isOver
February 1, 2026 at 8:04 PM
ESM2025 reinforced the basis for carbon budgets, confirming how closely global warming tracks cumulative CO₂ emissions. It also showed how non-CO₂ gases, especially CH₄, can shift the timing and scale of Paris-compatible pathways — a key nuance for 1.5°C and 2°C planning.

#ESM2025isOver
January 28, 2026 at 8:34 AM
Reposted by ESM2025
🥵 2024 El Niño pushed us over 1.5°C, making it the hottest year on record:

heatwaves
floods
hunger for +110 mln people
$3.4 trn in costs

Could such extremes trigger tipping points too?

@aromanou.bsky.social #NASA explains in next #ClimTipWebinar

Join 👉 3 Feb 2–3pm CET
bit.ly/climtip-webi...
January 26, 2026 at 10:19 AM
ESM2025 also moved towards including land-to-ocean carbon fluxes directly in Earth System Models, by coupling inland-water processes into a land surface scheme and assessing how human activities since 1850 have altered riverine carbon exports.

#ESM2025isover
January 24, 2026 at 8:03 AM
Carbon doesn’t flow straight from land to the open ocean.
In ESM2025, we have used the land-to-ocean aquatic continuum (LOAC) framework to follow carbon through rivers, floodplains, lakes, estuaries and coastal waters – and to quantify what happens along the way.
#ESM2025isOver
January 19, 2026 at 9:42 AM
By improving how fires are represented in Earth System Models, ESM2025 helps reveal whether wildfire regimes amplify or dampen regional warming, and how smoke and particles affect pollution and atmospheric processes – key for assessing climate and environmental risks.

#ESM2025isOver
January 16, 2026 at 7:59 AM
Wildfires are increasing in many regions due to climate change, land use and vegetation dynamics.
ESM2025 improved how fire dynamics are simulated in Earth System Models, including their effects on carbon emissions, air quality and ecosystems.

#ESM2025isOver
January 13, 2026 at 7:56 AM
ESM2025 also advanced marine biogeochemical modelling.
Improvements to ocean carbon and nitrogen cycles, and to marine N₂O emissions, help capture how deoxygenation and nutrient dynamics feed back on climate.

#ESM2025isOver
January 11, 2026 at 7:58 PM
The ocean absorbs and redistributes vast amounts of heat and carbon.
In ESM2025, ocean models used for climate projections gained more realistic convection and eddies, improving how vertical motions and circulation are represented.

#ESM2025isOver
January 7, 2026 at 8:02 AM
Ice-sheet changes unfold over centuries, which means sea level continues to rise long after temperatures stabilise.

ESM2025 helped clarify these long-term feedbacks by improving how ESMs simulate ice–ocean–climate interactions and the processes behind committed sea-level change.

#ESM2025isOver
December 29, 2025 at 9:01 AM
Ice sheets are a major source of long-term sea-level rise.

ESM2025 improved how Earth System Models represent them by enabling dynamical ice-sheet components in UKESM and IPSL-ESM.
These models can now simulate ice-sheet evolution in response to climate forcing & its influence on global sea level.
December 23, 2025 at 8:03 AM
Nitrogen was another key part of ESM2025.
The project improved how terrestrial nitrogen cycles are coupled with land models, so we can better simulate how N availability affects plant growth, carbon uptake and N₂O emissions – including nitrogen released from thawing permafrost.

#ESM2025isOver
December 17, 2025 at 7:59 AM
ESM2025 strengthened how Earth System Models represent methane — from wetland emissions to the atmospheric chemistry that sets CH₄ lifetime. Models now respond more realistically to temperature, moisture and chemical changes.

#ESM2025isOver
December 14, 2025 at 8:14 PM
Land-based mitigation isn’t just about carbon.
ESM2025 helped underline how biogeophysical effects shape the climate impact of forests.
👇🧵

#ESM2025isOver
December 11, 2025 at 8:04 AM
🌱 Land-based mitigation (afforestation, reforestation, BECCS) features prominently in many climate pathways.

ESM2025 looked at how current Earth System Models respond to large-scale land-based CDR, and what that means for climate.

#ESM2025isOver
December 8, 2025 at 9:18 AM
Reposted by ESM2025
Warming is accelerating. Tipping risks increasing. Net zero may not stop temperature rise.

‼️ Our joint policy brief outlines what new Earth System modelling means for EU climate policy.

👏 with @esm2025.bsky.social @optimesm-eu.bsky.social @tipesm.bsky.social #nextgems @rescueclimate.bsky.social
🌍 Earth System Insights: from our Horizon Projects Briefing 6 European Horizon projects gathered their insights together for an in-depth forum with the European Commission (DG RTD & DG CLIMA). Here’s what they had to say 👇 🔗 bit.ly/4pgvktX #ClimateAction #EarthSystem #HorizonEU
December 7, 2025 at 5:24 PM
Another of ESM2025 strengths was the way research connected with education and policy.

Not the only distinctive aspect of the project — but an important one for how results were shared and used.

#ESM2025isOver
December 5, 2025 at 11:14 AM
Reposted by ESM2025
🌍 Earth System Insights: from our Horizon Projects Briefing 6 European Horizon projects gathered their insights together for an in-depth forum with the European Commission (DG RTD & DG CLIMA). Here’s what they had to say 👇 🔗 bit.ly/4pgvktX #ClimateAction #EarthSystem #HorizonEU
December 3, 2025 at 1:58 PM
💬 One of ESM2025’s strengths was strengthening the dialogue between Earth System Models and Integrated Assessment Models — not from scratch, but in a more structured and practical way than before.

What changed in practice?👇🧵
#ESM2025isOver
December 2, 2025 at 8:19 AM
Today, ESM2025 officially comes to an end!

Since 2021, our European consortium has been building a new generation of Earth System Models to support mitigation & adaptation strategies aligned with the Paris Agreement. Watch these clips of our final video to see how far we've come!
🧵👇

#ESM2025isOver
November 30, 2025 at 5:03 PM
In many ways, this work only begins to scratch the surface of what is needed to robustly evaluate land-based CDR....

... and to end this #ESM2025research series of posts on our latest research highlight about land-based carbon dioxide removal, what's ahead?
🧵👇
November 29, 2025 at 6:01 PM
Our analysis suggests that uncertainties in current carbon stocks are even larger than those related to how these stocks may respond to future climate change...

Want to know more?
👀Check out our latest research highlight on land-based carbon dioxide removal: bit.ly/4qMYPEy
#ESM2025research
November 29, 2025 at 7:29 AM