@owlpot.bsky.social
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Vance is genuinely deranged, these people are broken inside and our greatest advantage is they don't understand they are the freaks.
I'm going to be real with you JD Vance, I don't think a video where the secret police murder someone and call them a bitch makes them look good
January 9, 2026 at 6:52 PM
Vance is genuinely deranged, these people are broken inside and our greatest advantage is they don't understand they are the freaks.
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every once in a while you can see someone look down and realize the cliff is gone from under their feet
January 9, 2026 at 5:54 PM
every once in a while you can see someone look down and realize the cliff is gone from under their feet
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Just saw a headline saying “ICE is the largest law enforcement agency in the US” and …
Maybe in terms of the 4-yr budget it got in the OBBB.
But even its likely-unachievable goal of hiring 10,000 more cops would leave it at ~1/3 the ABSOLUTE size of the NYPD.
And per capita? Minuscule.
Maybe in terms of the 4-yr budget it got in the OBBB.
But even its likely-unachievable goal of hiring 10,000 more cops would leave it at ~1/3 the ABSOLUTE size of the NYPD.
And per capita? Minuscule.
January 9, 2026 at 12:50 PM
Just saw a headline saying “ICE is the largest law enforcement agency in the US” and …
Maybe in terms of the 4-yr budget it got in the OBBB.
But even its likely-unachievable goal of hiring 10,000 more cops would leave it at ~1/3 the ABSOLUTE size of the NYPD.
And per capita? Minuscule.
Maybe in terms of the 4-yr budget it got in the OBBB.
But even its likely-unachievable goal of hiring 10,000 more cops would leave it at ~1/3 the ABSOLUTE size of the NYPD.
And per capita? Minuscule.
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Part of the bigger illiteracy crisis is that "huh that doesnt seem right, let me read a little bit more on this before I jump to conclusions" is an almost entirely abandoned practice. Social media structure doesnt encourage taking a moment to get more info, it encourages immediate reaction.
January 9, 2026 at 1:18 PM
Part of the bigger illiteracy crisis is that "huh that doesnt seem right, let me read a little bit more on this before I jump to conclusions" is an almost entirely abandoned practice. Social media structure doesnt encourage taking a moment to get more info, it encourages immediate reaction.
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It is the utmost sign of their ineptitude and more broadly, the underlying fundamental incompetemce of fascism and its practitioners writ large. Especially when they wield the levers of power. They become so used to all the organs of govt & media working in their favor, they begin to just not care
I don't think Vance is at all factoring in how damaging shit like this will be to his 2028 run.
Vance: "She was trying to ram this guy with her car, he shot back, he defended himself, he's already been seriously wounded in operations before. And everybody that is repeating the lie that this is some innocent woman who was out for a drive in Minneapolis, you should be ashamed of yourselves"
January 8, 2026 at 7:06 PM
It is the utmost sign of their ineptitude and more broadly, the underlying fundamental incompetemce of fascism and its practitioners writ large. Especially when they wield the levers of power. They become so used to all the organs of govt & media working in their favor, they begin to just not care
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Wow, no way…
Fairly likely Venezuela just continues the steady decline for Trump (to some floor of 36%)
January 8, 2026 at 6:21 PM
Wow, no way…
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If everyone just lets this go, that's the ballgame. Anytime they want to kill someone they'll just say the FBI is handling it.
The state Bureau of Criminal Apprehension says they've been informed by the FBI that US DOJ has said FBI will solely lead the investigation into Renee Nicole Good's killing by a federal officer. State investigators no longer have access to "case materials, scene evidence/investigative interviews"
January 8, 2026 at 4:10 PM
If everyone just lets this go, that's the ballgame. Anytime they want to kill someone they'll just say the FBI is handling it.
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Nicely, plainly stated. It’s not hard to tell the truth about the video.
ICE agent was not in the vehicle’s path when he fired at driver, video shows
ICE agent was not in the vehicle’s path when he fired at driver, video shows
An analysis of video footage raises questions about claims by President Donald Trump and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi L. Noem about the fatal shooting in Minneapolis.
www.washingtonpost.com
January 8, 2026 at 3:33 PM
Nicely, plainly stated. It’s not hard to tell the truth about the video.
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New paper with Salvo Nunnari which aims to detect (partisan) motivated reasoning (MR) using experimental designs based on information order. This provides a flexible way to detect deviations from Bayesian updating which can be explained by MR.
osf.io/preprints/so...
osf.io/preprints/so...
December 18, 2025 at 11:20 PM
New paper with Salvo Nunnari which aims to detect (partisan) motivated reasoning (MR) using experimental designs based on information order. This provides a flexible way to detect deviations from Bayesian updating which can be explained by MR.
osf.io/preprints/so...
osf.io/preprints/so...
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Yes, I must concede "it's not really about oil, there are other bad motivations at work here" theory has a significant caveat of "the Trump admin is filled with proudly ignorant people who might actually believe in their tiny brains Venezuela is like a big drum of ACME oil in a Roadrunner cartoon."
“.. The president’s desire is different than the industry’s. And the White House would have known that if they had communicated with the industry prior to the operation on Saturday.”
@cnn.com 🇻🇪 #OOTT
www.cnn.com/2026/01/05/b...
@cnn.com 🇻🇪 #OOTT
www.cnn.com/2026/01/05/b...
January 6, 2026 at 11:35 AM
Yes, I must concede "it's not really about oil, there are other bad motivations at work here" theory has a significant caveat of "the Trump admin is filled with proudly ignorant people who might actually believe in their tiny brains Venezuela is like a big drum of ACME oil in a Roadrunner cartoon."
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Trump just said "all" of Venezuela's oil must be made accessible to US oil companies. Trump wants to emulate Putin's model: Authoritarian, expansionist rulers carving up their regions and distributing the spoils of conquest to friendly oligarchs. 1/
(new piece)
newrepublic.com/article/2049...
(new piece)
newrepublic.com/article/2049...
Trump Blurts Out Dark Truth about Venezuela Plan—and about MAGA Voters
To some critics, it’s about plunder. To others, it’s about hemispheric hegemony. Actually, it’s about both.
newrepublic.com
January 6, 2026 at 12:00 PM
Trump just said "all" of Venezuela's oil must be made accessible to US oil companies. Trump wants to emulate Putin's model: Authoritarian, expansionist rulers carving up their regions and distributing the spoils of conquest to friendly oligarchs. 1/
(new piece)
newrepublic.com/article/2049...
(new piece)
newrepublic.com/article/2049...
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What if, and we know it's wild... what if the Aztecs actually didn't do human sacrifice?
kitfoxtrot.blogspot.com/2023/09/azte...
kitfoxtrot.blogspot.com/2023/09/azte...
Aztecs: No Human Sacrifice?
From a friend's comment on FB: 1) The Romans actually DID, by their own admission, practice ritual human sacrifice...they just didn't thin...
kitfoxtrot.blogspot.com
September 20, 2023 at 5:33 PM
What if, and we know it's wild... what if the Aztecs actually didn't do human sacrifice?
kitfoxtrot.blogspot.com/2023/09/azte...
kitfoxtrot.blogspot.com/2023/09/azte...
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Classic move. This is also, for example, where you can tell the nonsense begins in Jonathan Haidt’s “The Righteous Mind,” as he stops relying on others’ research and shifts to only his own.
Hilariously, like any crank, her evidence is her evidence. Every single one of the papers she cites for the "much previous research" around a friendly world is one of her own papers.
You can dislike AI! But do not be swindled by this shit!
I leave you with one hell of a figure from the "paper".
You can dislike AI! But do not be swindled by this shit!
I leave you with one hell of a figure from the "paper".
December 23, 2025 at 4:09 AM
Classic move. This is also, for example, where you can tell the nonsense begins in Jonathan Haidt’s “The Righteous Mind,” as he stops relying on others’ research and shifts to only his own.
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Yeah I think the cake is baked. IMO we'll be at a D+12 electorate come October-November, but will probably be as high as D+18 midyear
bsky.app/profile/pard...
bsky.app/profile/pard...
If SCOTUS invalidates the entire tariff approach I don't know what message Trump can send to voters that would convince them to show up.
"I lost on the single biggest issue of my campaign, and I know I told you you'd never have to vote for me again, but vote for me again so I can rule as king"?
"I lost on the single biggest issue of my campaign, and I know I told you you'd never have to vote for me again, but vote for me again so I can rule as king"?
December 23, 2025 at 4:41 AM
Yeah I think the cake is baked. IMO we'll be at a D+12 electorate come October-November, but will probably be as high as D+18 midyear
bsky.app/profile/pard...
bsky.app/profile/pard...
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People who take phone surveys report that their wellbeing is significantly higher than those who are surveyed online.
What do you think drives this result?
What do you think drives this result?
December 22, 2025 at 1:34 PM
People who take phone surveys report that their wellbeing is significantly higher than those who are surveyed online.
What do you think drives this result?
What do you think drives this result?
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Assertions of white victimization have been central to backlash rhetoric since the Reconstruction Era. JD Vance’s claim at the Turning Point convention that “you don’t have to apologize for being white anymore,” fits into this tradition.
December 22, 2025 at 1:01 PM
Assertions of white victimization have been central to backlash rhetoric since the Reconstruction Era. JD Vance’s claim at the Turning Point convention that “you don’t have to apologize for being white anymore,” fits into this tradition.
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I obviously can't know who's telling the truth here, but this is exactly why DUE PROCESS matters.
ICE is refusing to release a US citizen despite extensive documentation of her citizenship. Presented with her birth certificate, they called it a fake and transferred her from Maryland to Louisiana. www.huffpost.com/entry/us-cit...
Trump Administration Says Maryland Woman's Birth Certificate Is Fake In Dystopian Move
Dulce Consuelo Diaz Morales was arrested on Sunday. ICE won’t release her despite extensive documentation of her citizenship, her attorneys told HuffPost.
www.huffpost.com
December 19, 2025 at 6:33 PM
I obviously can't know who's telling the truth here, but this is exactly why DUE PROCESS matters.
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Had this take ready to go before today's CPI, might as well get it out there. Democrats should be ready for politics to be about jobs and not prices again. wertwhile.substack.com/p/dont-over-...
December 18, 2025 at 2:17 PM
Had this take ready to go before today's CPI, might as well get it out there. Democrats should be ready for politics to be about jobs and not prices again. wertwhile.substack.com/p/dont-over-...
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Interpretations of 2016-2024 need to flow from understanding that concrete circumstances and outcomes led Trump to get elected. (And that voters treat Trump too much as a regular nominee, with only a minor penalty for being horrible.) The situation is not a result of messaging or subtle positioning.
Explanation/evidence: The national presidential 2020-2024 swing was 6 points (Biden by 4.5 to Trump by 1.5 points). In the pivotal EC states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and North Carolina, the average swing was only 3.5 points toward Trump. /5
December 17, 2025 at 4:09 PM
Interpretations of 2016-2024 need to flow from understanding that concrete circumstances and outcomes led Trump to get elected. (And that voters treat Trump too much as a regular nominee, with only a minor penalty for being horrible.) The situation is not a result of messaging or subtle positioning.
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Trump’s greatest political ability was to get low information, low propensity voters out to vote for him. People who don’t have X and couldn’t tell you who we’re about to go to war with, much less find Venezuela on a map. They have no idea how tariffs work. To them, this is all good. trib.al/wuaS2hL
The MAGA Crack-Up Is Overrated. MAGA Is Here to Stay.
Sure, Ben Shapiro, Candace Owens, and Tucker Carlson are squabbling. But the underlying ideology remains as powerful as ever.
trib.al
December 17, 2025 at 7:37 PM
Trump’s greatest political ability was to get low information, low propensity voters out to vote for him. People who don’t have X and couldn’t tell you who we’re about to go to war with, much less find Venezuela on a map. They have no idea how tariffs work. To them, this is all good. trib.al/wuaS2hL
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OK folks, I reran the analysis cited by JD Vance predicting coldness toward Jews with 2024 ANES data.
Shocker: the "foreign-born" result is pretty modest and inconsistent, other factors -- notably age and gender -- are much stronger predictors.
Found a couple other interesting nuggets as well
Shocker: the "foreign-born" result is pretty modest and inconsistent, other factors -- notably age and gender -- are much stronger predictors.
Found a couple other interesting nuggets as well
Folks, would you believe me if I told you JD Vance was over there railing against the immigrants as the reason for the antisemitism
December 16, 2025 at 3:21 PM
OK folks, I reran the analysis cited by JD Vance predicting coldness toward Jews with 2024 ANES data.
Shocker: the "foreign-born" result is pretty modest and inconsistent, other factors -- notably age and gender -- are much stronger predictors.
Found a couple other interesting nuggets as well
Shocker: the "foreign-born" result is pretty modest and inconsistent, other factors -- notably age and gender -- are much stronger predictors.
Found a couple other interesting nuggets as well
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Very funny that this administration still seems to think that “oh the economy Biden left us was so bad, it’ll take years to fix” is an effective argument
You promised the median voter treats. They want treats now now now!
You promised the median voter treats. They want treats now now now!
December 16, 2025 at 7:03 PM
Very funny that this administration still seems to think that “oh the economy Biden left us was so bad, it’ll take years to fix” is an effective argument
You promised the median voter treats. They want treats now now now!
You promised the median voter treats. They want treats now now now!
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The administration is entirely post-truth.
Vance: "Why have rents gone down for 4 consecutive months? Because we're starting to get those illegal aliens out of the USA. Those criminals, those gang members, those people that are taking homes that ought by right go the people in this room. It's simple economics."
December 16, 2025 at 5:19 PM
The administration is entirely post-truth.
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The US is losing blue-collar jobs for the first time since the pandemic—year-on-year job losses have hit 65k as manufacturing, transportation, & mining industries lose jobs at a rapid pace while growth in construction has nearly zeroed out
December 16, 2025 at 1:43 PM
The US is losing blue-collar jobs for the first time since the pandemic—year-on-year job losses have hit 65k as manufacturing, transportation, & mining industries lose jobs at a rapid pace while growth in construction has nearly zeroed out
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Funny situation JD has put himself in.
December 16, 2025 at 1:58 AM
Funny situation JD has put himself in.