Drew Rappolt
@lidlwig.bsky.social
Peaked at 4th grade school spelling champion
Econ/Finance Bay Area Sports
Econ/Finance Bay Area Sports
Pinned
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
The Beige Book release on Wed confirmed the weak labor market reads from other data sources over the same timeframe and reminds us it'll be hard to maintain an income-driven expansion with negative job growth...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/continued-...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/continued-...
November 30, 2025 at 4:11 PM
The Beige Book release on Wed confirmed the weak labor market reads from other data sources over the same timeframe and reminds us it'll be hard to maintain an income-driven expansion with negative job growth...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/continued-...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/continued-...
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
2026 Warning 🚨: Going back to 1926, the S&P 500 has seen an average drawdown of 18.2% in the 12 months before midterm elections 📉 Going back 60 years, the smallest drawdown has been 7.4% while the largest was 41.8% 🤯 After the midterms, all is well, but before? 🤔👀
November 29, 2025 at 1:21 AM
2026 Warning 🚨: Going back to 1926, the S&P 500 has seen an average drawdown of 18.2% in the 12 months before midterm elections 📉 Going back 60 years, the smallest drawdown has been 7.4% while the largest was 41.8% 🤯 After the midterms, all is well, but before? 🤔👀
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
Hope everyone has a good Thanksgiving
Addams Family Thanksgiving
YouTube video by NewsGuyGreg
m.youtube.com
November 27, 2025 at 4:36 PM
Hope everyone has a good Thanksgiving
Xmas before last got a Ninja Woodfire Grill smoker and have struggled with a whole chicken. Today I figured it out finally
November 26, 2025 at 10:21 PM
Xmas before last got a Ninja Woodfire Grill smoker and have struggled with a whole chicken. Today I figured it out finally
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
yep a deal has been made
*MIRAN:AS WE MAKE PROGRESS, LESS URGENT TO MOVE QUICKLY ON RATES
*MIRAN:AS WE MAKE PROGRESS, LESS URGENT TO MOVE QUICKLY ON RATES
Very very hard to see the hawks winning out with Williams and Daly both explicitly calling for a Dec cut. Based on Waller's comments this AM my guess is Powell cut a deal: we back this cut, but nothing more. More guessing: Waller agreed, and will shop his ability to cut that deal to the White House.
Exclusive | Fed’s Daly Backs December Rate Cut, Citing Vulnerable Labor Market
The views of the San Francisco Fed president are significant because she has rarely deviated publicly from the position of Chair Jerome Powell.
www.wsj.com
November 25, 2025 at 1:07 PM
yep a deal has been made
*MIRAN:AS WE MAKE PROGRESS, LESS URGENT TO MOVE QUICKLY ON RATES
*MIRAN:AS WE MAKE PROGRESS, LESS URGENT TO MOVE QUICKLY ON RATES
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
US PPI #inflation steady (Sep) as higher gas & #tariffs pressure offset by margin squeeze
✅Headline #PPI +0.3%
📈Core +0.1%
🟠Gds +0.9%
🍳Food 1.1%
⛽️Energy 3.5%
📊Core 0.2%
✅Services +0%
🚚Transport 0.8%
⚖️Trade (margins) -0.2%
📈Inflation
🔶PPI: 2.7%
🔶Core: 2.9%
✅Headline #PPI +0.3%
📈Core +0.1%
🟠Gds +0.9%
🍳Food 1.1%
⛽️Energy 3.5%
📊Core 0.2%
✅Services +0%
🚚Transport 0.8%
⚖️Trade (margins) -0.2%
📈Inflation
🔶PPI: 2.7%
🔶Core: 2.9%
November 25, 2025 at 2:15 PM
US PPI #inflation steady (Sep) as higher gas & #tariffs pressure offset by margin squeeze
✅Headline #PPI +0.3%
📈Core +0.1%
🟠Gds +0.9%
🍳Food 1.1%
⛽️Energy 3.5%
📊Core 0.2%
✅Services +0%
🚚Transport 0.8%
⚖️Trade (margins) -0.2%
📈Inflation
🔶PPI: 2.7%
🔶Core: 2.9%
✅Headline #PPI +0.3%
📈Core +0.1%
🟠Gds +0.9%
🍳Food 1.1%
⛽️Energy 3.5%
📊Core 0.2%
✅Services +0%
🚚Transport 0.8%
⚖️Trade (margins) -0.2%
📈Inflation
🔶PPI: 2.7%
🔶Core: 2.9%
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
More than usual, the next Fed meeting could be summarized as "WWJD"—What Will Jerome Decide?
Allies have laid the groundwork for Powell to push thru a cut if he wants one—then signal more cuts aren't likely under current conditions
A look at his choices
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
Allies have laid the groundwork for Powell to push thru a cut if he wants one—then signal more cuts aren't likely under current conditions
A look at his choices
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
Fed Chair Powell’s Allies Provide Opening for December Rate Cut
A divided committee, missing data and a whiff of stagflation leave Powell to choose between two paths—each with drawbacks
www.wsj.com
November 25, 2025 at 3:08 AM
More than usual, the next Fed meeting could be summarized as "WWJD"—What Will Jerome Decide?
Allies have laid the groundwork for Powell to push thru a cut if he wants one—then signal more cuts aren't likely under current conditions
A look at his choices
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
Allies have laid the groundwork for Powell to push thru a cut if he wants one—then signal more cuts aren't likely under current conditions
A look at his choices
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
29 years ago today, Grampa Simpson walked into (and out of) the Maison Derrière and a meme was born. “Bart After Dark” premiered November 24, 1996.
November 24, 2025 at 11:11 PM
29 years ago today, Grampa Simpson walked into (and out of) the Maison Derrière and a meme was born. “Bart After Dark” premiered November 24, 1996.
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
Goldman: "We expect another Fed cut in December, followed by two more moves in March and June 2026 that take the funds rate to 3-3.25%. The risks for next year are tilted toward more cuts ..."
November 23, 2025 at 11:16 PM
Goldman: "We expect another Fed cut in December, followed by two more moves in March and June 2026 that take the funds rate to 3-3.25%. The risks for next year are tilted toward more cuts ..."
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
GS: Underlying inflation has fallen to near 2% and actual core PCE inflation should recede once the tariff pass-through ends in mid-2026
November 23, 2025 at 10:54 PM
GS: Underlying inflation has fallen to near 2% and actual core PCE inflation should recede once the tariff pass-through ends in mid-2026
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
November 23, 2025 at 7:20 PM
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
The Fed doesn’t reschedule meetings but could wait a week to make a slightly less contentious decision. An unusual move in usual times. Much is in flux.
November 22, 2025 at 3:28 PM
The Fed doesn’t reschedule meetings but could wait a week to make a slightly less contentious decision. An unusual move in usual times. Much is in flux.
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
My favorite piece of content today.
November 21, 2025 at 8:28 PM
My favorite piece of content today.
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
They line up perfectly.
November 22, 2025 at 2:32 AM
They line up perfectly.
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
Meet the first San Francisco pro women’s baseball team, which drafted Kelsie Whitmore first overall on Thursday | @sfchronicle.com
www.sfchronicle.com/sports/artic...
www.sfchronicle.com/sports/artic...
Kelsie Whitmore makes history as No. 1 pick by San Francisco in first WPBL draft
Kelsie Whitmore, who pitched for the Oakland Ballers last year, has become the first player drafted in the nascent Women’s Pro Baseball League.
www.sfchronicle.com
November 21, 2025 at 5:01 AM
Meet the first San Francisco pro women’s baseball team, which drafted Kelsie Whitmore first overall on Thursday | @sfchronicle.com
www.sfchronicle.com/sports/artic...
www.sfchronicle.com/sports/artic...
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
Yes, it tells you we’re down 5% from a recent all-time high.
US stocks are feeling very iffy. We're only down 5% from the all-time high in October, but the narrative around the AI boom has definitely changed. I'm getting more and more questions if Fed rate cuts can bail out the market, which tells you something...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/can-the-fe...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/can-the-fe...
November 21, 2025 at 1:00 AM
Yes, it tells you we’re down 5% from a recent all-time high.
And I'm gonna win the lotto so good to know optimism abounds
November 20, 2025 at 9:21 PM
And I'm gonna win the lotto so good to know optimism abounds
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
everyone knows the biggest rallies happen in bear markets. but don’t forget that the largest drops also happen in bear markets
November 20, 2025 at 7:05 PM
everyone knows the biggest rallies happen in bear markets. but don’t forget that the largest drops also happen in bear markets
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
In AI, we just went from "take my money" to "prove it" and stock prices are adjusting. The End.
November 20, 2025 at 6:22 PM
In AI, we just went from "take my money" to "prove it" and stock prices are adjusting. The End.
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
Here's what worries the Fed (and me!): The unemployment rate is slowly drifting up. This is a clear sign of an unhealthy economy. And it's happening slowly enough that it hasn't attracted many headlines. But it really matters.
November 20, 2025 at 1:56 PM
Here's what worries the Fed (and me!): The unemployment rate is slowly drifting up. This is a clear sign of an unhealthy economy. And it's happening slowly enough that it hasn't attracted many headlines. But it really matters.
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
The labor market is not falling off a cliff, but it is loosening. With an unemployment rate at 4.44% and rising we think the Fed moves ahead with a third risk management rate cut in December to get policy closer to neutral
November 20, 2025 at 2:00 PM
The labor market is not falling off a cliff, but it is loosening. With an unemployment rate at 4.44% and rising we think the Fed moves ahead with a third risk management rate cut in December to get policy closer to neutral