Diane Swonk
@dianeswonk.bsky.social
Chief Economist, KPMG, opinions my own
Coming up to talk job and why workers are so distraught on CNBC with Kelly Evans at 1:15 EST.
Evans.at
January 9, 2026 at 5:53 PM
Coming up to talk job and why workers are so distraught on CNBC with Kelly Evans at 1:15 EST.
Coming up on CNBC to talk jobs and a miserable year for workers at 1:15 est.
January 9, 2026 at 5:50 PM
Coming up on CNBC to talk jobs and a miserable year for workers at 1:15 est.
They have not been replaced. Many leadership positions have been replaced.
January 9, 2026 at 4:38 PM
They have not been replaced. Many leadership positions have been replaced.
My take on the miserable year for jobs
Weakest employment gains since 2020, 2nd weakest since global financial crisis 2009. Lowest hiring rate in late Nov since 2011.
Over 80% of all gains for year were in first four months. Stalled after tariff tantrum in April.
kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
Weakest employment gains since 2020, 2nd weakest since global financial crisis 2009. Lowest hiring rate in late Nov since 2011.
Over 80% of all gains for year were in first four months. Stalled after tariff tantrum in April.
kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
A miserable year for workers
Job gains have come to a virtual standstill.
kpmg.com
January 9, 2026 at 4:37 PM
My take on the miserable year for jobs
Weakest employment gains since 2020, 2nd weakest since global financial crisis 2009. Lowest hiring rate in late Nov since 2011.
Over 80% of all gains for year were in first four months. Stalled after tariff tantrum in April.
kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
Weakest employment gains since 2020, 2nd weakest since global financial crisis 2009. Lowest hiring rate in late Nov since 2011.
Over 80% of all gains for year were in first four months. Stalled after tariff tantrum in April.
kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
The December jobs report will have fewer disruptions due to the government shutdown. Larger issue is staffing shortages.
The Jolts data is still tracking pretty close to the Indeed data. The BLS is working hard to up survey responses but staffing shortages a problem.
The Jolts data is still tracking pretty close to the Indeed data. The BLS is working hard to up survey responses but staffing shortages a problem.
January 7, 2026 at 11:13 PM
The December jobs report will have fewer disruptions due to the government shutdown. Larger issue is staffing shortages.
The Jolts data is still tracking pretty close to the Indeed data. The BLS is working hard to up survey responses but staffing shortages a problem.
The Jolts data is still tracking pretty close to the Indeed data. The BLS is working hard to up survey responses but staffing shortages a problem.
The BLS does the official jobs numbers. The establishment survey is a survey of mostly large establishments. The birth and death rate of small firms is estimated based on data they have that comes with a lag. Hence, revisions - balancing time & accuracy. Staff is down 30% from year ago.
January 7, 2026 at 11:10 PM
The BLS does the official jobs numbers. The establishment survey is a survey of mostly large establishments. The birth and death rate of small firms is estimated based on data they have that comes with a lag. Hence, revisions - balancing time & accuracy. Staff is down 30% from year ago.
The withholding could have been adjusted in July but were not. The expansion to tax cuts include more write-offs, which show up as refunds.
January 7, 2026 at 11:07 PM
The withholding could have been adjusted in July but were not. The expansion to tax cuts include more write-offs, which show up as refunds.
😱 Starting in 2030, annual deaths exceed annual births, and net immigration accounts for all population growth.
CBO a year ago predicted we would hit a wall on Social Security Trust fund in fiscal 2034. Then in Sept moved to 2031, now…2030?
Wow.
www.cbo.gov/publication/...
CBO a year ago predicted we would hit a wall on Social Security Trust fund in fiscal 2034. Then in Sept moved to 2031, now…2030?
Wow.
www.cbo.gov/publication/...
www.cbo.gov
January 7, 2026 at 11:05 PM
😱 Starting in 2030, annual deaths exceed annual births, and net immigration accounts for all population growth.
CBO a year ago predicted we would hit a wall on Social Security Trust fund in fiscal 2034. Then in Sept moved to 2031, now…2030?
Wow.
www.cbo.gov/publication/...
CBO a year ago predicted we would hit a wall on Social Security Trust fund in fiscal 2034. Then in Sept moved to 2031, now…2030?
Wow.
www.cbo.gov/publication/...
A drop in churn has added to the overstaffing that occurred as the economy reopened and firms scrambled to reopen. Hence, the surge in hiring freezes.
This is a tough market for new grads; it is easier to get a job when you have one. Even that has gotten more difficult.
This is a tough market for new grads; it is easier to get a job when you have one. Even that has gotten more difficult.
January 7, 2026 at 4:07 PM
A drop in churn has added to the overstaffing that occurred as the economy reopened and firms scrambled to reopen. Hence, the surge in hiring freezes.
This is a tough market for new grads; it is easier to get a job when you have one. Even that has gotten more difficult.
This is a tough market for new grads; it is easier to get a job when you have one. Even that has gotten more difficult.
Tax refunds should provide an extra lift as we move into Spring, but we are getting to the point where we need to generate very few jobs to hold the unemployment rate steady. which is locking new grads out.
January 7, 2026 at 4:07 PM
Tax refunds should provide an extra lift as we move into Spring, but we are getting to the point where we need to generate very few jobs to hold the unemployment rate steady. which is locking new grads out.
A drop in churn has added to the overstaffing that occurred as the economy reopened and firms scrambled to reopen.
We should get a bit of a lift in December in the official jobs numbers.
We should get a bit of a lift in December in the official jobs numbers.
January 7, 2026 at 4:07 PM
A drop in churn has added to the overstaffing that occurred as the economy reopened and firms scrambled to reopen.
We should get a bit of a lift in December in the official jobs numbers.
We should get a bit of a lift in December in the official jobs numbers.
Job openings dropped in late Nov. Quit and layoff rates remained low. Quit rates are well into the lows hit during the pandemic recession and the second lowest levels since Jan 2014, when we were the still attempting to recover from the global financial crisis.
January 7, 2026 at 4:07 PM
Job openings dropped in late Nov. Quit and layoff rates remained low. Quit rates are well into the lows hit during the pandemic recession and the second lowest levels since Jan 2014, when we were the still attempting to recover from the global financial crisis.
The job hoppers premium picked up a bit but remains subdued relative to earlier in the recovery.
Labor shortages are emerging in areas dominated by immigrants. Quits in leisure & hospitality soared.
Labor shortages are emerging in areas dominated by immigrants. Quits in leisure & hospitality soared.
January 7, 2026 at 4:07 PM
The job hoppers premium picked up a bit but remains subdued relative to earlier in the recovery.
Labor shortages are emerging in areas dominated by immigrants. Quits in leisure & hospitality soared.
Labor shortages are emerging in areas dominated by immigrants. Quits in leisure & hospitality soared.
Separately, information sector - includes tech and movie, tv and streaming - continued to shed jobs.
That is despite a rise in wages in the tech sector as firms compete for a limited pool of AI talent; much of that talent is foreign born. India and China have the most grads on a numbers basis.
That is despite a rise in wages in the tech sector as firms compete for a limited pool of AI talent; much of that talent is foreign born. India and China have the most grads on a numbers basis.
January 7, 2026 at 4:07 PM
Separately, information sector - includes tech and movie, tv and streaming - continued to shed jobs.
That is despite a rise in wages in the tech sector as firms compete for a limited pool of AI talent; much of that talent is foreign born. India and China have the most grads on a numbers basis.
That is despite a rise in wages in the tech sector as firms compete for a limited pool of AI talent; much of that talent is foreign born. India and China have the most grads on a numbers basis.
We saw a similar phenomenon in late 2024, as holiday hires showed up in Dec 2024 instead of Nov.
Federal workers were paid in arrears but contractors & the communities that rely upon them were not. We are finally catching up on those layoffs.
Federal workers were paid in arrears but contractors & the communities that rely upon them were not. We are finally catching up on those layoffs.
January 7, 2026 at 4:07 PM
We saw a similar phenomenon in late 2024, as holiday hires showed up in Dec 2024 instead of Nov.
Federal workers were paid in arrears but contractors & the communities that rely upon them were not. We are finally catching up on those layoffs.
Federal workers were paid in arrears but contractors & the communities that rely upon them were not. We are finally catching up on those layoffs.
We saw a similar phenomenon in late 2024, as holiday hires showed up in December 2024 instead of November.
Federal workers were paid in arrears but contractors and the communities that rely upon them were not. We are finally catching up on those layoffs.
Federal workers were paid in arrears but contractors and the communities that rely upon them were not. We are finally catching up on those layoffs.
January 7, 2026 at 4:07 PM
We saw a similar phenomenon in late 2024, as holiday hires showed up in December 2024 instead of November.
Federal workers were paid in arrears but contractors and the communities that rely upon them were not. We are finally catching up on those layoffs.
Federal workers were paid in arrears but contractors and the communities that rely upon them were not. We are finally catching up on those layoffs.
Jobless growth continues
ADP saw job gains in December but still subdued. Late timing of Thanksgiving compressed holiday hires into December. Those gains and catch up following the government shutdown buoyed the gains.
ADP saw job gains in December but still subdued. Late timing of Thanksgiving compressed holiday hires into December. Those gains and catch up following the government shutdown buoyed the gains.
January 7, 2026 at 4:07 PM
Jobless growth continues
ADP saw job gains in December but still subdued. Late timing of Thanksgiving compressed holiday hires into December. Those gains and catch up following the government shutdown buoyed the gains.
ADP saw job gains in December but still subdued. Late timing of Thanksgiving compressed holiday hires into December. Those gains and catch up following the government shutdown buoyed the gains.
The shutdown affected data collection in October not the third quarter, although the data will still undergo benchmark revisions.
January 2, 2026 at 8:05 PM
The shutdown affected data collection in October not the third quarter, although the data will still undergo benchmark revisions.
Thank you for the kind words. Much appreciated.
December 24, 2025 at 3:40 PM
Thank you for the kind words. Much appreciated.
Exports rebounded, while imports fell. The drop in imports still reflects the lingering effects of the front-running economic of tariffs we saw in the first quarter. Inventories were liquidated.
Here is my analysis
kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
Here is my analysis
kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
Consumers fuel GDP growth
Growth and labor market outcomes have decoupled.
kpmg.com
December 23, 2025 at 3:57 PM
Exports rebounded, while imports fell. The drop in imports still reflects the lingering effects of the front-running economic of tariffs we saw in the first quarter. Inventories were liquidated.
Here is my analysis
kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
Here is my analysis
kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
The labor market added only 160,000 jobs between April and September. The data is poised to be revised down and could slip into the red. That is a small fraction of the 1.54M jobs we saw with similar growth in the second half of 2023.
Consumer spending & a the trade deficit buoyed growth.
Consumer spending & a the trade deficit buoyed growth.
December 23, 2025 at 3:57 PM
The labor market added only 160,000 jobs between April and September. The data is poised to be revised down and could slip into the red. That is a small fraction of the 1.54M jobs we saw with similar growth in the second half of 2023.
Consumer spending & a the trade deficit buoyed growth.
Consumer spending & a the trade deficit buoyed growth.
Real GDP growth came in at a 4.3% pace in the third quarter, topping the 3.8% rebound in growth in the second quarter. The economy contracted in the first quarter.
That marked the strongest gains since the back half of 2023, without a commensurate rise in employment.
That marked the strongest gains since the back half of 2023, without a commensurate rise in employment.
December 23, 2025 at 3:57 PM
Real GDP growth came in at a 4.3% pace in the third quarter, topping the 3.8% rebound in growth in the second quarter. The economy contracted in the first quarter.
That marked the strongest gains since the back half of 2023, without a commensurate rise in employment.
That marked the strongest gains since the back half of 2023, without a commensurate rise in employment.
To borrow a phrase from Powell, “we are navigating by the stars under cloudy skies.”
December 19, 2025 at 1:22 PM
To borrow a phrase from Powell, “we are navigating by the stars under cloudy skies.”
Those estimates will look stronger than they are after inflation adjustments if the data itself is understating actual inflation.
The good news is that the Fed economists warned Powell & he warned the public. Sadly, trading algorithms were not informed - the market rallied on the news.
The good news is that the Fed economists warned Powell & he warned the public. Sadly, trading algorithms were not informed - the market rallied on the news.
December 19, 2025 at 1:22 PM
Those estimates will look stronger than they are after inflation adjustments if the data itself is understating actual inflation.
The good news is that the Fed economists warned Powell & he warned the public. Sadly, trading algorithms were not informed - the market rallied on the news.
The good news is that the Fed economists warned Powell & he warned the public. Sadly, trading algorithms were not informed - the market rallied on the news.
If the survey occurred Nov 14 or later, it likely captured prices in early Dec, after the holiday rush. That would make them appear weaker after seasonal adjustment.
Why do we care? The data feeds into GDP estimates.
Why do we care? The data feeds into GDP estimates.
December 19, 2025 at 1:22 PM
If the survey occurred Nov 14 or later, it likely captured prices in early Dec, after the holiday rush. That would make them appear weaker after seasonal adjustment.
Why do we care? The data feeds into GDP estimates.
Why do we care? The data feeds into GDP estimates.