Diane Swonk
@dianeswonk.bsky.social
Chief Economist, KPMG, opinions my own
Coming up on Bloomberg at 10 est.
November 7, 2025 at 2:46 PM
Coming up on Bloomberg at 10 est.
My take on the jobless boom we are riding is here.
A rising tide fails to lift all boats…
kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
A rising tide fails to lift all boats…
kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
Rising tide fails to lift all boats
A jobless boom
kpmg.com
November 5, 2025 at 12:28 PM
My take on the jobless boom we are riding is here.
A rising tide fails to lift all boats…
kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
A rising tide fails to lift all boats…
kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
Mortgage winter got about 🥶
Avg age first-time buyers jumped to 40 from 38 in NAR survey,
oldest on record back to 1980s.
Hard even as some markets hottest post pandemic markets experiencing price drops. Insurance & taxes hurt affordability more than mortgage rates.
share.google/XwCFhqj82war...
Avg age first-time buyers jumped to 40 from 38 in NAR survey,
oldest on record back to 1980s.
Hard even as some markets hottest post pandemic markets experiencing price drops. Insurance & taxes hurt affordability more than mortgage rates.
share.google/XwCFhqj82war...
First-Time Home Buyer Share Falls to Historic Low of 21%, Median Age Rises to 40
The historically low share of first-time buyers underscores the real-world consequences of a housing market starved for affordable inventory.
share.google
November 4, 2025 at 7:01 PM
Mortgage winter got about 🥶
Avg age first-time buyers jumped to 40 from 38 in NAR survey,
oldest on record back to 1980s.
Hard even as some markets hottest post pandemic markets experiencing price drops. Insurance & taxes hurt affordability more than mortgage rates.
share.google/XwCFhqj82war...
Avg age first-time buyers jumped to 40 from 38 in NAR survey,
oldest on record back to 1980s.
Hard even as some markets hottest post pandemic markets experiencing price drops. Insurance & taxes hurt affordability more than mortgage rates.
share.google/XwCFhqj82war...
Working on a new piece laying out why we are experiencing a jobless boom.
Research by JP Morgan suggests that AI and related investment in infrastructure accounted for 3/4 of the 1.6% average growth of the first half of the year.
Research by JP Morgan suggests that AI and related investment in infrastructure accounted for 3/4 of the 1.6% average growth of the first half of the year.
November 1, 2025 at 11:35 AM
Working on a new piece laying out why we are experiencing a jobless boom.
Research by JP Morgan suggests that AI and related investment in infrastructure accounted for 3/4 of the 1.6% average growth of the first half of the year.
Research by JP Morgan suggests that AI and related investment in infrastructure accounted for 3/4 of the 1.6% average growth of the first half of the year.
My take on a contensious rate cut by the Fed. Powell waffles on December cut.
Dissonance within ranks of the Fed getting louder. Not yet deafening but moving in that direction.
Mild bout of stagflation proven easier to forecast than live.
Odd press conference.
kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
Dissonance within ranks of the Fed getting louder. Not yet deafening but moving in that direction.
Mild bout of stagflation proven easier to forecast than live.
Odd press conference.
kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
Fed cuts amidst dueling mandate
December “not a forgone conclusion”
kpmg.com
October 29, 2025 at 9:38 PM
My take on a contensious rate cut by the Fed. Powell waffles on December cut.
Dissonance within ranks of the Fed getting louder. Not yet deafening but moving in that direction.
Mild bout of stagflation proven easier to forecast than live.
Odd press conference.
kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
Dissonance within ranks of the Fed getting louder. Not yet deafening but moving in that direction.
Mild bout of stagflation proven easier to forecast than live.
Odd press conference.
kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
Meant to post this sooner. Inflation hit 3% Y/Y. Not as hot as could have been but still warm. Troubling that 40% of the data are now imputed due to staffing shortages prior to shutdown.
kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
Inflation slows upward creep
Service sector inflation proves sticky.
kpmg.com
October 24, 2025 at 7:43 PM
Meant to post this sooner. Inflation hit 3% Y/Y. Not as hot as could have been but still warm. Troubling that 40% of the data are now imputed due to staffing shortages prior to shutdown.
kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
This research from the Boston Fed suggests that inflation expectations may becoming unmoored. That means higher inflation is becoming normalized, which could be own self-fulfilling prophecy on a more sustained bout of inflation.
Here are key takeaways:
Here are key takeaways:
October 16, 2025 at 9:15 PM
This research from the Boston Fed suggests that inflation expectations may becoming unmoored. That means higher inflation is becoming normalized, which could be own self-fulfilling prophecy on a more sustained bout of inflation.
Here are key takeaways:
Here are key takeaways:
Fed’s Beige Book survey of economic conditions is out.
Lots of dissonance for the Fed.
The low hire/low fire environment persists, along with pockets of labor shortages.
Lots of dissonance for the Fed.
The low hire/low fire environment persists, along with pockets of labor shortages.
October 15, 2025 at 8:06 PM
Fed’s Beige Book survey of economic conditions is out.
Lots of dissonance for the Fed.
The low hire/low fire environment persists, along with pockets of labor shortages.
Lots of dissonance for the Fed.
The low hire/low fire environment persists, along with pockets of labor shortages.
Powell:
We do not have a view on immigration - we take it as it arrives.
The changes are larger than expected with only beginning to see the effects. Big economic factor - fewer people to work and pockets of labor shortages are emerging.
New people create supply and demand.
We do not have a view on immigration - we take it as it arrives.
The changes are larger than expected with only beginning to see the effects. Big economic factor - fewer people to work and pockets of labor shortages are emerging.
New people create supply and demand.
October 14, 2025 at 5:01 PM
Powell:
We do not have a view on immigration - we take it as it arrives.
The changes are larger than expected with only beginning to see the effects. Big economic factor - fewer people to work and pockets of labor shortages are emerging.
New people create supply and demand.
We do not have a view on immigration - we take it as it arrives.
The changes are larger than expected with only beginning to see the effects. Big economic factor - fewer people to work and pockets of labor shortages are emerging.
New people create supply and demand.
Powell embraces “healthy debate” about the tensions we are facing in.
When I was an investor, I hated when everyone agreed.
Debate at moment within the Fed are some of the richest and should be healthy given we have two things happening at once - inflation & weak employment.
When I was an investor, I hated when everyone agreed.
Debate at moment within the Fed are some of the richest and should be healthy given we have two things happening at once - inflation & weak employment.
October 14, 2025 at 4:59 PM
Powell embraces “healthy debate” about the tensions we are facing in.
When I was an investor, I hated when everyone agreed.
Debate at moment within the Fed are some of the richest and should be healthy given we have two things happening at once - inflation & weak employment.
When I was an investor, I hated when everyone agreed.
Debate at moment within the Fed are some of the richest and should be healthy given we have two things happening at once - inflation & weak employment.
Chair Powell receives the Adam Smith award. Data limited but outlook for employment and inflation not changed.
In person Powell emphasizes MAYBE we have seen growth pick up. Learn more dovish than his text, with rising downside risks to employment. BUT evolving outcomes - more caution next year
In person Powell emphasizes MAYBE we have seen growth pick up. Learn more dovish than his text, with rising downside risks to employment. BUT evolving outcomes - more caution next year
October 14, 2025 at 4:47 PM
Chair Powell receives the Adam Smith award. Data limited but outlook for employment and inflation not changed.
In person Powell emphasizes MAYBE we have seen growth pick up. Learn more dovish than his text, with rising downside risks to employment. BUT evolving outcomes - more caution next year
In person Powell emphasizes MAYBE we have seen growth pick up. Learn more dovish than his text, with rising downside risks to employment. BUT evolving outcomes - more caution next year
Prez Anna Paulson, who rotated on to the FOMC voting committee next year, supports two additional rate cuts this year but caution next year. Worries ab employment & risk to low income households. Economy carried by affluent. BUT cautious cuts in 2026.
October 13, 2025 at 5:33 PM
Prez Anna Paulson, who rotated on to the FOMC voting committee next year, supports two additional rate cuts this year but caution next year. Worries ab employment & risk to low income households. Economy carried by affluent. BUT cautious cuts in 2026.
Halloween scare. Discussion of debt and deficits:
AI can’t save us - debt and deficits on unsustainable path & crisis risks rising.
Quote of day:
“We might find someone who argues we are on a sustainable path, but they would not be qualified to speak on this panel.
AI can’t save us - debt and deficits on unsustainable path & crisis risks rising.
Quote of day:
“We might find someone who argues we are on a sustainable path, but they would not be qualified to speak on this panel.
October 13, 2025 at 2:07 PM
Halloween scare. Discussion of debt and deficits:
AI can’t save us - debt and deficits on unsustainable path & crisis risks rising.
Quote of day:
“We might find someone who argues we are on a sustainable path, but they would not be qualified to speak on this panel.
AI can’t save us - debt and deficits on unsustainable path & crisis risks rising.
Quote of day:
“We might find someone who argues we are on a sustainable path, but they would not be qualified to speak on this panel.
Salim Ramji, CEO of Vanguard lays out the need for access to wealth accumulation for individual investors as a key equalizer. Investors do not know what they can spend & how to limit need to borrow or liquidate their 401Ks, which set them back. Leans into fixed incomes markets.
October 13, 2025 at 1:23 PM
Salim Ramji, CEO of Vanguard lays out the need for access to wealth accumulation for individual investors as a key equalizer. Investors do not know what they can spend & how to limit need to borrow or liquidate their 401Ks, which set them back. Leans into fixed incomes markets.
The hallowing out of the middle class and the economy. We are at a precipice. My take here.
kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
Bye, bye Miss American Pie
The outlook: inequality and consumer angst
kpmg.com
October 8, 2025 at 10:28 PM
The hallowing out of the middle class and the economy. We are at a precipice. My take here.
kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
More on inequality to come.
Some recent studies worth thinking about.
The age group with the most wealth over time is those over 75. A compounding of financial market returns and the equity in their homes are the primary reason.
nber.org/papers/w34131#…
Some recent studies worth thinking about.
The age group with the most wealth over time is those over 75. A compounding of financial market returns and the equity in their homes are the primary reason.
nber.org/papers/w34131#…
The Extraordinary Rise in the Wealth of Older American Households
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
https://nber.org/papers/w34131#…
October 8, 2025 at 1:22 PM
More on inequality to come.
Some recent studies worth thinking about.
The age group with the most wealth over time is those over 75. A compounding of financial market returns and the equity in their homes are the primary reason.
nber.org/papers/w34131#…
Some recent studies worth thinking about.
The age group with the most wealth over time is those over 75. A compounding of financial market returns and the equity in their homes are the primary reason.
nber.org/papers/w34131#…
Some level of inequality is expected and aspirational in a market-based economy. Everything from skills, luck and grit can create inequality.
Extreme inequality is not and can dampen growth and leave large swaths of the population desperate rather than aspiring.
Extreme inequality is not and can dampen growth and leave large swaths of the population desperate rather than aspiring.
October 1, 2025 at 9:34 PM
Some level of inequality is expected and aspirational in a market-based economy. Everything from skills, luck and grit can create inequality.
Extreme inequality is not and can dampen growth and leave large swaths of the population desperate rather than aspiring.
Extreme inequality is not and can dampen growth and leave large swaths of the population desperate rather than aspiring.
Revisions to ADP payrolls reveal more weakness in private sector hiring, although the payroll company said the granularity on the Census data required more estimates.
The ADP confirms other data on the labor market that is weak.
The ADP confirms other data on the labor market that is weak.
October 1, 2025 at 1:11 PM
Revisions to ADP payrolls reveal more weakness in private sector hiring, although the payroll company said the granularity on the Census data required more estimates.
The ADP confirms other data on the labor market that is weak.
The ADP confirms other data on the labor market that is weak.
Why do economists care about inequality in incomes and wealth?
1) Inequality tends to dampen overall economic performance. One of most immediacy effects is on consumer spending. Low-and middle-income households spend a larger percentage of each dollar that they earn when more spending is in…
1) Inequality tends to dampen overall economic performance. One of most immediacy effects is on consumer spending. Low-and middle-income households spend a larger percentage of each dollar that they earn when more spending is in…
September 25, 2025 at 10:43 AM
Why do economists care about inequality in incomes and wealth?
1) Inequality tends to dampen overall economic performance. One of most immediacy effects is on consumer spending. Low-and middle-income households spend a larger percentage of each dollar that they earn when more spending is in…
1) Inequality tends to dampen overall economic performance. One of most immediacy effects is on consumer spending. Low-and middle-income households spend a larger percentage of each dollar that they earn when more spending is in…
Wealth has become more concentrated among the top 0.1% - 10% of households. This data is from the @federalreserve
Top 10% hold a whopping 67.4% of all wealth in the US as of the second quarter.
Bottom 50% hold 2.5% - mostly in their home.
Top 10% hold a whopping 67.4% of all wealth in the US as of the second quarter.
Bottom 50% hold 2.5% - mostly in their home.
September 25, 2025 at 9:35 AM
Wealth has become more concentrated among the top 0.1% - 10% of households. This data is from the @federalreserve
Top 10% hold a whopping 67.4% of all wealth in the US as of the second quarter.
Bottom 50% hold 2.5% - mostly in their home.
Top 10% hold a whopping 67.4% of all wealth in the US as of the second quarter.
Bottom 50% hold 2.5% - mostly in their home.
Highly educated women w/children under five are dropping out of the labor force and 2X pace of less educated women, reversing post pandemic trend. My colleague Matt Nestler’s work on what reason reveals escalating childcare costs as a major factor. Women w/high school or less are cutting hours.
September 24, 2025 at 7:15 PM
Highly educated women w/children under five are dropping out of the labor force and 2X pace of less educated women, reversing post pandemic trend. My colleague Matt Nestler’s work on what reason reveals escalating childcare costs as a major factor. Women w/high school or less are cutting hours.
New from ADP and Nela Richardson
“…And by August 2025, the gap was nearly 5.3, or 530 percent, close to the record hit in May 2025. In short, even though their pay continues to grow faster than that of other cohorts, the lowest-wage workers continue to lose ground”
Why do we care?
“…And by August 2025, the gap was nearly 5.3, or 530 percent, close to the record hit in May 2025. In short, even though their pay continues to grow faster than that of other cohorts, the lowest-wage workers continue to lose ground”
Why do we care?
September 24, 2025 at 6:43 PM
New from ADP and Nela Richardson
“…And by August 2025, the gap was nearly 5.3, or 530 percent, close to the record hit in May 2025. In short, even though their pay continues to grow faster than that of other cohorts, the lowest-wage workers continue to lose ground”
Why do we care?
“…And by August 2025, the gap was nearly 5.3, or 530 percent, close to the record hit in May 2025. In short, even though their pay continues to grow faster than that of other cohorts, the lowest-wage workers continue to lose ground”
Why do we care?
Powell corralled the cats & achieved an unusual amount of unity amidst a high level of uncertainty about the outlook.
The Fed cut by a quarter point, but there was only one dissent by newly appt Gov Miran, who wanted a more aggressive half percent cut.
The Fed cut by a quarter point, but there was only one dissent by newly appt Gov Miran, who wanted a more aggressive half percent cut.
September 17, 2025 at 10:28 PM
Powell corralled the cats & achieved an unusual amount of unity amidst a high level of uncertainty about the outlook.
The Fed cut by a quarter point, but there was only one dissent by newly appt Gov Miran, who wanted a more aggressive half percent cut.
The Fed cut by a quarter point, but there was only one dissent by newly appt Gov Miran, who wanted a more aggressive half percent cut.
9/11. 24 years & cancer but I am still here. Time is best shared instead of spent. Random acts of kindness are underrated. Break bread not ties. Be kind; pay it forward. Thank you to those who remembered. Touched. ❤️🩹
September 11, 2025 at 10:40 PM
9/11. 24 years & cancer but I am still here. Time is best shared instead of spent. Random acts of kindness are underrated. Break bread not ties. Be kind; pay it forward. Thank you to those who remembered. Touched. ❤️🩹
Producers prices reveal margin compression, consumer prices moving higher.
That is what the Fed forecast would happen in 2025. Proven harder to live with increases in inflation & unemployment in real time.
Goods and services both risking, with affluent households buoying travel costs.
That is what the Fed forecast would happen in 2025. Proven harder to live with increases in inflation & unemployment in real time.
Goods and services both risking, with affluent households buoying travel costs.
September 11, 2025 at 2:23 PM
Producers prices reveal margin compression, consumer prices moving higher.
That is what the Fed forecast would happen in 2025. Proven harder to live with increases in inflation & unemployment in real time.
Goods and services both risking, with affluent households buoying travel costs.
That is what the Fed forecast would happen in 2025. Proven harder to live with increases in inflation & unemployment in real time.
Goods and services both risking, with affluent households buoying travel costs.