Yes. There are many private sector sources. The challenge is that they lack the longevity, transparency and access of the government data. They provide color in the sketches the government data outline.

November is a month to give thanks. Food banks are getting busy. My son’s birthday is soon. He volunteered at a food bank and asked that I donate for his gift. Meals lost do not get recouped. Hungry children can’t learn. Break bread and share a slice.

The problem is that that pickup in productivity growth accrues more to owners of capital than workers. That has been the case much of this century.

The gap between growth and subdued job gains accrues to productivity growth. We are doing more with less. It is too early for AI to boost productivity growth across the economy - more on that in my next piece.

We will likely see job gains of about a half a million for the year, a small fraction of the 1.9M last year. That would mark the weakest year since 2020 and the second weakest since 2009. That was during the global financial crisis.

That is before shutdown & collateral damage to contractors and communities. Entire ecosystems are affected.

Job openings on Indeed falling, ADP tepid at best - negative in September, weak in October. RevelioLabs id a little stronger in September. More data on October are out next week.

The U6, which includes more of the unemployed and stressed, hit 8.1% in August, its highest level since 2021 & nearly 2% above 2019 levels.

Those who have a job are clinging on, while those who do not are left wanting.

Hence, the unemployment rate edged up from 4.1% in June to 4.3% in August. Expect to cross 4.4% in September or October.

In October, 151K federal workers rolled off payrolls. That will likely push October payrolls into the red.

The still low level of unemployment is deceptive.

We do not have official data for September except CPI.

Payrolls slowed from 158K per month in 2024 to 75K in 2025 YTD. The last three months show that job gains slipped below the subdued 30K - 60K per month needed to hold unemployment in check.

That and the wealth it generated for the most affluent households suggest that growth has gotten more concentrated in a few firms and households.

Preliminary data on 3Q suggest growth came close to the 3.8% pace of 2Q, which would make those six months the strongest since the back half of 2023.

We get more data on the labor market from the private sector than we do on inflation. Still, without good data, a data dependent Fed has a lot of challenges.

Flying with very little visibility.

A dissent is expected by Miran. He would like to see the Fed moving more aggressively to shore up the labor market.

Another struggle for the Fed is recession. The shutdown would not usually add to those odds but there is nothing usual about the policy shifts we are enduring.

Expecting a dissent in favor of more cuts but with the shutdown risking much more material damage to the labor market - with spillover to contractors and state and local governments, the Fed will have less pushback within its ranks - 7 of 19 did not want additional cuts in September.

…monthly pace on record. Data dates to 2006

Childcare and daycare up at third fastest pace on record. Many existing day care facilities have closed, which is affecting ability of households to make ends meet and feed their families.

The Fed will feel a bit more comfortable cutting next week.

The imputations uses items that are close substitutes and history. That raises the risk of lagging data.

The other notable issue was the surge in costs in the care economy, which have nothing to do with tariffs but everything to do with curbs on immigration.

Elder in-home care jumped fastest…