Diane Swonk
@dianeswonk.bsky.social
Chief Economist, KPMG, opinions my own
Job postings close to pre-pandemic level but data masks underlying weakness. Wage posting up 2.5%, weak & below current inflation. Tends to lead by about 6 mos. Pockets of shortages in areas dominated by immigrants. Not zero sum. Foreign- & native- born complement instead substitute for each other.
November 17, 2025 at 9:44 PM
Job postings close to pre-pandemic level but data masks underlying weakness. Wage posting up 2.5%, weak & below current inflation. Tends to lead by about 6 mos. Pockets of shortages in areas dominated by immigrants. Not zero sum. Foreign- & native- born complement instead substitute for each other.
This research from the Boston Fed suggests that inflation expectations may becoming unmoored. That means higher inflation is becoming normalized, which could be own self-fulfilling prophecy on a more sustained bout of inflation.
Here are key takeaways:
Here are key takeaways:
October 16, 2025 at 9:15 PM
This research from the Boston Fed suggests that inflation expectations may becoming unmoored. That means higher inflation is becoming normalized, which could be own self-fulfilling prophecy on a more sustained bout of inflation.
Here are key takeaways:
Here are key takeaways:
Powell embraces “healthy debate” about the tensions we are facing in.
When I was an investor, I hated when everyone agreed.
Debate at moment within the Fed are some of the richest and should be healthy given we have two things happening at once - inflation & weak employment.
When I was an investor, I hated when everyone agreed.
Debate at moment within the Fed are some of the richest and should be healthy given we have two things happening at once - inflation & weak employment.
October 14, 2025 at 4:59 PM
Powell embraces “healthy debate” about the tensions we are facing in.
When I was an investor, I hated when everyone agreed.
Debate at moment within the Fed are some of the richest and should be healthy given we have two things happening at once - inflation & weak employment.
When I was an investor, I hated when everyone agreed.
Debate at moment within the Fed are some of the richest and should be healthy given we have two things happening at once - inflation & weak employment.
Chair Powell receives the Adam Smith award. Data limited but outlook for employment and inflation not changed.
In person Powell emphasizes MAYBE we have seen growth pick up. Learn more dovish than his text, with rising downside risks to employment. BUT evolving outcomes - more caution next year
In person Powell emphasizes MAYBE we have seen growth pick up. Learn more dovish than his text, with rising downside risks to employment. BUT evolving outcomes - more caution next year
October 14, 2025 at 4:47 PM
Chair Powell receives the Adam Smith award. Data limited but outlook for employment and inflation not changed.
In person Powell emphasizes MAYBE we have seen growth pick up. Learn more dovish than his text, with rising downside risks to employment. BUT evolving outcomes - more caution next year
In person Powell emphasizes MAYBE we have seen growth pick up. Learn more dovish than his text, with rising downside risks to employment. BUT evolving outcomes - more caution next year
Prez Anna Paulson, who rotated on to the FOMC voting committee next year, supports two additional rate cuts this year but caution next year. Worries ab employment & risk to low income households. Economy carried by affluent. BUT cautious cuts in 2026.
October 13, 2025 at 5:33 PM
Prez Anna Paulson, who rotated on to the FOMC voting committee next year, supports two additional rate cuts this year but caution next year. Worries ab employment & risk to low income households. Economy carried by affluent. BUT cautious cuts in 2026.
Halloween scare. Discussion of debt and deficits:
AI can’t save us - debt and deficits on unsustainable path & crisis risks rising.
Quote of day:
“We might find someone who argues we are on a sustainable path, but they would not be qualified to speak on this panel.
AI can’t save us - debt and deficits on unsustainable path & crisis risks rising.
Quote of day:
“We might find someone who argues we are on a sustainable path, but they would not be qualified to speak on this panel.
October 13, 2025 at 2:07 PM
Halloween scare. Discussion of debt and deficits:
AI can’t save us - debt and deficits on unsustainable path & crisis risks rising.
Quote of day:
“We might find someone who argues we are on a sustainable path, but they would not be qualified to speak on this panel.
AI can’t save us - debt and deficits on unsustainable path & crisis risks rising.
Quote of day:
“We might find someone who argues we are on a sustainable path, but they would not be qualified to speak on this panel.
Salim Ramji, CEO of Vanguard lays out the need for access to wealth accumulation for individual investors as a key equalizer. Investors do not know what they can spend & how to limit need to borrow or liquidate their 401Ks, which set them back. Leans into fixed incomes markets.
October 13, 2025 at 1:23 PM
Salim Ramji, CEO of Vanguard lays out the need for access to wealth accumulation for individual investors as a key equalizer. Investors do not know what they can spend & how to limit need to borrow or liquidate their 401Ks, which set them back. Leans into fixed incomes markets.
Those shifts show up in the gender gap on views on the economy in this poll by the Wall Street Journal. www.wsj.com/video/series...
Telling graph:
Telling graph:
September 24, 2025 at 7:15 PM
Those shifts show up in the gender gap on views on the economy in this poll by the Wall Street Journal. www.wsj.com/video/series...
Telling graph:
Telling graph:
A day to remember my dad who grew up near this beach. He loved the sunsets & the rare moments you could see Chicago. He left this earth this day in 2018. I will always miss you & carry your spirit with me. Be kind; pay it forward. Some things can be too short for this world. ❤️
August 26, 2025 at 12:40 AM
A day to remember my dad who grew up near this beach. He loved the sunsets & the rare moments you could see Chicago. He left this earth this day in 2018. I will always miss you & carry your spirit with me. Be kind; pay it forward. Some things can be too short for this world. ❤️
Tragic. Mark Skender was an incredible man and friend to so many of us. He was a beacon of light amidst the storm. I cannot begin to express the hole he has left in many of our hearts. My love is with his family. 💔 Find peace our friend. You fought so hard. Be kind; pay it forward.
April 19, 2025 at 2:16 AM
Tragic. Mark Skender was an incredible man and friend to so many of us. He was a beacon of light amidst the storm. I cannot begin to express the hole he has left in many of our hearts. My love is with his family. 💔 Find peace our friend. You fought so hard. Be kind; pay it forward.
Great work by @josephpolitano.bsky.social looking at the exceptions and how they favor China.
April 12, 2025 at 4:10 PM
Great work by @josephpolitano.bsky.social looking at the exceptions and how they favor China.
Don’t often see black
swans coming…
swans coming…
March 29, 2025 at 10:17 PM
Don’t often see black
swans coming…
swans coming…
Effects of Trade Policy Uncertainty - work done by @IMF.
“The drag is stronger on investment than on consumption…” but hits both
That little blip before now…the onset of the pandemic. Stunning.
“The drag is stronger on investment than on consumption…” but hits both
That little blip before now…the onset of the pandemic. Stunning.
March 26, 2025 at 12:32 PM
Effects of Trade Policy Uncertainty - work done by @IMF.
“The drag is stronger on investment than on consumption…” but hits both
That little blip before now…the onset of the pandemic. Stunning.
“The drag is stronger on investment than on consumption…” but hits both
That little blip before now…the onset of the pandemic. Stunning.
@stlouisfed.bsky.social Prez Musalem strikes hawkish tone and evokes cautionary lessons of 1970s.
Raises risk of stagflation & tough tradeoffs. Watching inflation expectations closely. #nabe2025
Raises risk of stagflation & tough tradeoffs. Watching inflation expectations closely. #nabe2025
March 3, 2025 at 5:55 PM
@stlouisfed.bsky.social Prez Musalem strikes hawkish tone and evokes cautionary lessons of 1970s.
Raises risk of stagflation & tough tradeoffs. Watching inflation expectations closely. #nabe2025
Raises risk of stagflation & tough tradeoffs. Watching inflation expectations closely. #nabe2025
#nabe2025 Case & Deaton talk about about the loss in life expectancy in US for those w/o BA. Drop in life expectancy during COVID more pronounced among less educated and divide between Red and Blue states with vaccine hesitancy. 💔
March 2, 2025 at 8:25 PM
#nabe2025 Case & Deaton talk about about the loss in life expectancy in US for those w/o BA. Drop in life expectancy during COVID more pronounced among less educated and divide between Red and Blue states with vaccine hesitancy. 💔
The top 10% of earners in the U.S.—households making about $250,000 a year or more—now account for 49.7% of all spending, a record in data going back to 1989, according to an analysis by Moody’s Analytics
February 24, 2025 at 2:46 PM
The top 10% of earners in the U.S.—households making about $250,000 a year or more—now account for 49.7% of all spending, a record in data going back to 1989, according to an analysis by Moody’s Analytics
The world is flooded by uncertainty; it now exceeds the peak hit during the pandemic in 2020. Stunning. 🥶
February 16, 2025 at 1:36 PM
The world is flooded by uncertainty; it now exceeds the peak hit during the pandemic in 2020. Stunning. 🥶
The deterioration in consumer sentiment was across all party affiliations & reflected a fear they may now be able to buy ahead of tariffs.
February 7, 2025 at 9:50 PM
The deterioration in consumer sentiment was across all party affiliations & reflected a fear they may now be able to buy ahead of tariffs.
Employment cost index reveals the recent catch up in public sector compensation. It now outpaces private sector. Coincides w/catch up hiring by state & local govt over last 18 mos. S&L lion’s share of gov’t spend.
January 31, 2025 at 3:46 PM
Employment cost index reveals the recent catch up in public sector compensation. It now outpaces private sector. Coincides w/catch up hiring by state & local govt over last 18 mos. S&L lion’s share of gov’t spend.
@PIIE crunched the numbers on 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada.
Higher inflation, lower growth in all three counties - vehicle sector hit hardest given the number of times parts cross the border before it becomes a 🚘
Higher inflation, lower growth in all three counties - vehicle sector hit hardest given the number of times parts cross the border before it becomes a 🚘
January 27, 2025 at 6:36 PM
@PIIE crunched the numbers on 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada.
Higher inflation, lower growth in all three counties - vehicle sector hit hardest given the number of times parts cross the border before it becomes a 🚘
Higher inflation, lower growth in all three counties - vehicle sector hit hardest given the number of times parts cross the border before it becomes a 🚘
Global uncertainty soared to highest levels since onset of the pandemic.
Why do we care? Uncertainty acts a tax on economic activity and will weigh on global growth if it persists.
Why do we care? Uncertainty acts a tax on economic activity and will weigh on global growth if it persists.
January 25, 2025 at 8:51 PM
Global uncertainty soared to highest levels since onset of the pandemic.
Why do we care? Uncertainty acts a tax on economic activity and will weigh on global growth if it persists.
Why do we care? Uncertainty acts a tax on economic activity and will weigh on global growth if it persists.
More on the childcare crisis from my colleague Matt Nestler. Based on micro data from BLS. Disruptions to work up per parent dramatically, esp after adjust for drop in births.
January 22, 2025 at 1:21 PM
More on the childcare crisis from my colleague Matt Nestler. Based on micro data from BLS. Disruptions to work up per parent dramatically, esp after adjust for drop in births.
The rise is stunning!
December 6, 2024 at 3:42 PM
The rise is stunning!