Julius E.R.
@jeraud.bsky.social
Financial and Political Economics | @CEU and @LeidenUniv | 🇱🇹🇪🇺
Reposted by Julius E.R.
Update: The day after the massive tariff announcement — when Dow dropped nearly 4% — the White House put out budget numbers that projected annual 3% economic growth for the next decade.
That is … unlikely.
It’s also the WH ignoring the consequences of actions playing out publicly in really time.
That is … unlikely.
It’s also the WH ignoring the consequences of actions playing out publicly in really time.
To tie the tariffs and the tax fight together:
House Republicans are projecting economic growth over the next 10 years at 2.6%.
CBO projects it at 1.8%.
Those numbers were *before* the tariffs.
If the tariffs hold down growth, the US will collect far less revenue, exploding the national debt.
House Republicans are projecting economic growth over the next 10 years at 2.6%.
CBO projects it at 1.8%.
Those numbers were *before* the tariffs.
If the tariffs hold down growth, the US will collect far less revenue, exploding the national debt.
Baseline takeaway: Our national debt is spiraling out of control.
And it could get worse. Fast.
This ⤵️ is what CBO says will happen under current law.
But Trump and Republicans are working on a major tax cut that will spike the national debt even more. And that's not reflected in this data.
And it could get worse. Fast.
This ⤵️ is what CBO says will happen under current law.
But Trump and Republicans are working on a major tax cut that will spike the national debt even more. And that's not reflected in this data.
April 3, 2025 at 9:26 PM
Update: The day after the massive tariff announcement — when Dow dropped nearly 4% — the White House put out budget numbers that projected annual 3% economic growth for the next decade.
That is … unlikely.
It’s also the WH ignoring the consequences of actions playing out publicly in really time.
That is … unlikely.
It’s also the WH ignoring the consequences of actions playing out publicly in really time.
Reposted by Julius E.R.
In short, European elites aim to uphold three objectives: credible and effective deterrence against Russia, nuclear nonproliferation, and strategic stability (understood as low incentives for nuclear first use).
But without the U.S. nuclear arsenal, choosing any two makes the third impossible.
2/x
But without the U.S. nuclear arsenal, choosing any two makes the third impossible.
2/x
March 31, 2025 at 8:50 AM
In short, European elites aim to uphold three objectives: credible and effective deterrence against Russia, nuclear nonproliferation, and strategic stability (understood as low incentives for nuclear first use).
But without the U.S. nuclear arsenal, choosing any two makes the third impossible.
2/x
But without the U.S. nuclear arsenal, choosing any two makes the third impossible.
2/x
Reposted by Julius E.R.
Well... There's always a quote..
VIDEO. When Marine Le Pen called for "lifelong ineligibility" for elected officials convicted of "misappropriation of public funds"
www.publicsenat.fr/actualites/p...
VIDEO. When Marine Le Pen called for "lifelong ineligibility" for elected officials convicted of "misappropriation of public funds"
www.publicsenat.fr/actualites/p...
VIDEO. Quand Marine Le Pen demandait « l’inéligibilité à vie » pour les élus condamnés pour « détournement de fonds publics » - Public Sénat
Alors que Marine Le Pen vient d’être condamnée pour détournement de fonds publics à quatre ans de prison et à cinq ans d’inéligibilité, l’empêchant de se présenter en 2027, la même Marine Le Pen défen...
www.publicsenat.fr
April 1, 2025 at 10:29 AM
Well... There's always a quote..
VIDEO. When Marine Le Pen called for "lifelong ineligibility" for elected officials convicted of "misappropriation of public funds"
www.publicsenat.fr/actualites/p...
VIDEO. When Marine Le Pen called for "lifelong ineligibility" for elected officials convicted of "misappropriation of public funds"
www.publicsenat.fr/actualites/p...
Reposted by Julius E.R.
Note that this decision in itself is not Trump’s fault as such, although his reign of error surely doesn’t help.
The decision was expected, as the threat against Finland is these days less “a short war against heavily mechanized enemy” and more “a long conflict against human waves.”
The decision was expected, as the threat against Finland is these days less “a short war against heavily mechanized enemy” and more “a long conflict against human waves.”
Finland will withdraw from the international agreement banning antipersonnel mines and spend 3 percent of GDP on defense, the country's President Alexander Stubb said Tuesday.
Finland will exit global land mine treaty as Russia fears grow
President Alexander Stubb also announces major ramp up of defense spending to 3 percent of GDP.
www.politico.eu
April 1, 2025 at 3:27 PM
Note that this decision in itself is not Trump’s fault as such, although his reign of error surely doesn’t help.
The decision was expected, as the threat against Finland is these days less “a short war against heavily mechanized enemy” and more “a long conflict against human waves.”
The decision was expected, as the threat against Finland is these days less “a short war against heavily mechanized enemy” and more “a long conflict against human waves.”
Reposted by Julius E.R.
An internal memo from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth says the Pentagon will consider only a potential conflict with China when planning for a major power war, leaving European allies to cope with the threat from Russia.
www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
Secret Pentagon memo on China, homeland has Heritage fingerprints
An secret memo from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth focuses on deterring China’s seizure of Taiwan and shoring up homeland defense. The guidance mimics language of a report from the conservative think ...
www.washingtonpost.com
March 30, 2025 at 12:31 PM
An internal memo from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth says the Pentagon will consider only a potential conflict with China when planning for a major power war, leaving European allies to cope with the threat from Russia.
www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
Reposted by Julius E.R.
UPDATE: “Tim Pool, A right-wing influencer who was paid hundreds of thousands of dollars to spread Russian propaganda during the 2024 presidential election has been added to the White House press pool.”
Weird how stuff like this keeps happening.🤷🏼♂️
Weird how stuff like this keeps happening.🤷🏼♂️
Influencer Paid by Russia Added to White House Press Pool
Tim Pool was one of several conservative social media stars who says he was duped into taking Russian money during the election.
www.thedailybeast.com
March 28, 2025 at 8:22 PM
UPDATE: “Tim Pool, A right-wing influencer who was paid hundreds of thousands of dollars to spread Russian propaganda during the 2024 presidential election has been added to the White House press pool.”
Weird how stuff like this keeps happening.🤷🏼♂️
Weird how stuff like this keeps happening.🤷🏼♂️
Reposted by Julius E.R.
Reposted by Julius E.R.
Finland lost the wars, but remained independent. Afterwards, the construction of the welfare state was implicitly and sometimes very explicitly part of the “total defence” doctrine.
The military regularly reminded the politicians that the will to defend the country is the sine qua non of defence.
The military regularly reminded the politicians that the will to defend the country is the sine qua non of defence.
March 27, 2025 at 9:13 AM
Finland lost the wars, but remained independent. Afterwards, the construction of the welfare state was implicitly and sometimes very explicitly part of the “total defence” doctrine.
The military regularly reminded the politicians that the will to defend the country is the sine qua non of defence.
The military regularly reminded the politicians that the will to defend the country is the sine qua non of defence.
Reposted by Julius E.R.
Dutch central bank president Klaas Knot: “Defense is more important for now than book keeping”
(If even the Dutch say this…)
www.telegraaf.nl/financieel/1...
(If even the Dutch say this…)
www.telegraaf.nl/financieel/1...
DNB baas Knot: ’Defensie even belangrijker dan boekhouding’
De president van De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) Klaas Knot vindt het gebruik van eurobonds en het versoepelen van de begrotingsregels om de Europese defensie te versterken goed te verdedigen,
www.telegraaf.nl
March 20, 2025 at 3:06 PM
Dutch central bank president Klaas Knot: “Defense is more important for now than book keeping”
(If even the Dutch say this…)
www.telegraaf.nl/financieel/1...
(If even the Dutch say this…)
www.telegraaf.nl/financieel/1...
Reposted by Julius E.R.
“Our task is to see that potential aggressors, from whatever quarter, understand plainly that the capacity and the resolve of the West would deny them victory in war and that the price they would pay would be intolerable”. 3/3
March 20, 2025 at 1:23 PM
“Our task is to see that potential aggressors, from whatever quarter, understand plainly that the capacity and the resolve of the West would deny them victory in war and that the price they would pay would be intolerable”. 3/3
Reposted by Julius E.R.
More than half of Europeans consider U.S. President Donald Trump an “enemy of Europe,” according to a survey conducted in the EU’s eight largest countries and Denmark.
Majority of Europeans see Trump as an enemy, survey shows
4 in 10 Europeans also say the US president “acts like a dictator.”
www.politico.eu
March 20, 2025 at 1:30 PM
More than half of Europeans consider U.S. President Donald Trump an “enemy of Europe,” according to a survey conducted in the EU’s eight largest countries and Denmark.
Reposted by Julius E.R.
You might as well admit it America, you now belong to Russia.
US ‘deletes evidence’ of Russia’s kidnap of thousands of Ukrainian children
Researchers at Yale University had been compiling database of alleged Russian war crimes, including abduction of up to 35,000 children
www.independent.co.uk
March 20, 2025 at 6:46 AM
You might as well admit it America, you now belong to Russia.
Trump administration considers giving up NATO SACEUR command as part of a drive to lower costs. “It would be a mistake of epic proportions, and once we give it up, they [Europeans] are not going to give it back” - Adm James Stavridis, former supreme allied commander NATO #econsky
Trump admin considers giving up NATO command that has been American since Eisenhower
The move is being discussed as part of a possible restructuring of combatant commands that would help the Defense Department cut costs.
www.nbcnews.com
March 19, 2025 at 2:23 PM
Trump administration considers giving up NATO SACEUR command as part of a drive to lower costs. “It would be a mistake of epic proportions, and once we give it up, they [Europeans] are not going to give it back” - Adm James Stavridis, former supreme allied commander NATO #econsky
Reposted by Julius E.R.
Germany’s federal parliament will likely pass a constitutional amendment tomorrow to allow the next government to significantly increase defence spending. What to prioritise?
More than money: How German defence can make the most of the debt break overhaul ecfr.eu/article/more...
More than money: How German defence can make the most of the debt break overhaul ecfr.eu/article/more...
More than money: How German defence can make the most of the debt break overhaul
The German parliament will likely pass a debt break exemption for defence spending on Tuesday. Freeing up the money is only the first step towards a more effective military
ecfr.eu
March 17, 2025 at 4:14 PM
Germany’s federal parliament will likely pass a constitutional amendment tomorrow to allow the next government to significantly increase defence spending. What to prioritise?
More than money: How German defence can make the most of the debt break overhaul ecfr.eu/article/more...
More than money: How German defence can make the most of the debt break overhaul ecfr.eu/article/more...
Reposted by Julius E.R.
No offence to Admiral Giuseppe Dragone, but he has no flipping clue what Donald Trump will or will not do & he should be careful of making statements that he cannot back up.
There is no kill switch on F-35s and the U.S. will not reach the point of limiting the use of the warplanes for European customers, says the Chair of the NATO Military Committee, Admiral Giuseppe Dragone, at the Paris Defence and Strategy Forum.
March 12, 2025 at 3:10 PM
No offence to Admiral Giuseppe Dragone, but he has no flipping clue what Donald Trump will or will not do & he should be careful of making statements that he cannot back up.
Reposted by Julius E.R.
Reposted by Julius E.R.
This BBC graphic is a good way to show why reciprocal 25% tariffs will cause prices on some goods to go up far more than 25%.
A piston used in a car engine made in Michigan will cross the U.S. border twice, and will be taxed 25% each time.
Some products cross the U.S. border even more than that.
A piston used in a car engine made in Michigan will cross the U.S. border twice, and will be taxed 25% each time.
Some products cross the U.S. border even more than that.
March 4, 2025 at 2:32 PM
This BBC graphic is a good way to show why reciprocal 25% tariffs will cause prices on some goods to go up far more than 25%.
A piston used in a car engine made in Michigan will cross the U.S. border twice, and will be taxed 25% each time.
Some products cross the U.S. border even more than that.
A piston used in a car engine made in Michigan will cross the U.S. border twice, and will be taxed 25% each time.
Some products cross the U.S. border even more than that.
Reposted by Julius E.R.
words I never imagined writing in my lifetime.....
General Sir Richard Shirreff, the former Nato deputy supreme allied commander in Europe, has told Times Radio:
"I think we have to assume, after the events of the last 10 days, that we cannot in any way count on America as an ally"
General Sir Richard Shirreff, the former Nato deputy supreme allied commander in Europe, has told Times Radio:
"I think we have to assume, after the events of the last 10 days, that we cannot in any way count on America as an ally"
March 3, 2025 at 5:55 PM
words I never imagined writing in my lifetime.....
General Sir Richard Shirreff, the former Nato deputy supreme allied commander in Europe, has told Times Radio:
"I think we have to assume, after the events of the last 10 days, that we cannot in any way count on America as an ally"
General Sir Richard Shirreff, the former Nato deputy supreme allied commander in Europe, has told Times Radio:
"I think we have to assume, after the events of the last 10 days, that we cannot in any way count on America as an ally"
Reposted by Julius E.R.
It should be clear by now that Trump is blackmailing Zelensky to remove him from office. He is pursuing his own policy of regime change. Whether it just coincides, is coordinated or even directed by, Russia, I don’t know. But if he gets his way,
www.nytimes.com/2025/03/03/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/03/03/u...
Trump Suspends Military Aid to Ukraine After Oval Office Blowup
The directive, which takes effect immediately, affects more than $1 billion in arms and ammunition in the pipelines and on order.
www.nytimes.com
March 4, 2025 at 6:46 AM
It should be clear by now that Trump is blackmailing Zelensky to remove him from office. He is pursuing his own policy of regime change. Whether it just coincides, is coordinated or even directed by, Russia, I don’t know. But if he gets his way,
www.nytimes.com/2025/03/03/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/03/03/u...
Reposted by Julius E.R.
Most countries around the world will not want to be in Ukraine’s shoes; some may want to be instead in Russia's & the US's position.
Many will try to get nuclear, chemical, or/and biological weapons.
If spreading WMDs across the world is in the US national interest:
Go ahead!
Many will try to get nuclear, chemical, or/and biological weapons.
If spreading WMDs across the world is in the US national interest:
Go ahead!
March 3, 2025 at 9:43 PM
Most countries around the world will not want to be in Ukraine’s shoes; some may want to be instead in Russia's & the US's position.
Many will try to get nuclear, chemical, or/and biological weapons.
If spreading WMDs across the world is in the US national interest:
Go ahead!
Many will try to get nuclear, chemical, or/and biological weapons.
If spreading WMDs across the world is in the US national interest:
Go ahead!
Reposted by Julius E.R.
And to make things worse, after launching various grift cryptocurrency tokens, the US national strategy is now being sourced from TikTok and Facebook
March 3, 2025 at 4:59 PM
And to make things worse, after launching various grift cryptocurrency tokens, the US national strategy is now being sourced from TikTok and Facebook
Reposted by Julius E.R.
Unlike Trump, they've worked out how much Putin's word is worth - less than nothing.
“Unlike Trump, Europe can’t afford to take Putin at his word *** Danish intelligence has forecast Russia could be ready to wage a ‘large-scale war’ in Europe within five years,” & “Latvia’s intelligence service thinks the Kremlin is purposefully developing its capabilities to confront NATO.” 2/28/25
Unlike Trump, Europe can’t afford to take Putin at his word
Vastly differing views of the Russian leader’s geopolitical ambitions are fueling the transatlantic divide.
www.politico.eu
March 3, 2025 at 5:07 PM
Unlike Trump, they've worked out how much Putin's word is worth - less than nothing.
Reposted by Julius E.R.
Zelensky on Lindsey Graham's remarks about the need for his resignation: "Lindsey is a very good guy... I can grant him Ukrainian citizenship, and then I will listen to him as a citizen of Ukraine."
March 3, 2025 at 8:56 AM
Zelensky on Lindsey Graham's remarks about the need for his resignation: "Lindsey is a very good guy... I can grant him Ukrainian citizenship, and then I will listen to him as a citizen of Ukraine."
Reposted by Julius E.R.
This needs daily emphasis. Democracy is what makes leaders strong. Because it gives them a mandate, checks and balances pushing them away from darker impulses, subordinates more likely to be unafraid to tell them what they need to know, and a safe second career/ retirement.
This is the problem of people viewing strongman politics as creating a strong state as opposed to the reality that it primarily creates a hollowed out state capable of only repression but rarely self-defense let alone international hegemony.
March 3, 2025 at 9:11 AM
This needs daily emphasis. Democracy is what makes leaders strong. Because it gives them a mandate, checks and balances pushing them away from darker impulses, subordinates more likely to be unafraid to tell them what they need to know, and a safe second career/ retirement.
Reposted by Julius E.R.
The Chinese government hides youth unemployment numbers and other statistics deemed unflattering.
This would be next level...
This would be next level...
This is ominous. Commerce Secretary suggests new GDP calculations might deliberately exclude government spending to obscure impact of DOGE cuts.
apnews.com/article/trum...
apnews.com/article/trum...
The Trump administration may exclude government spending from GDP, obscuring the impact of DOGE cuts
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says he could take government spending out of his agency's reports on gross domestic product.
apnews.com
March 3, 2025 at 9:19 AM
The Chinese government hides youth unemployment numbers and other statistics deemed unflattering.
This would be next level...
This would be next level...