Rafael Loss
@rafaelloss.bsky.social
policy fellow @ecfr.eu berlin | defence, nukes and nato | prev cgsr llnl | he/him
latest 👉 https://ecfr.eu/article/showstoppers-how-to-fix-europes-military-immobility-and-improve-deterrence/
latest 👉 https://ecfr.eu/article/showstoppers-how-to-fix-europes-military-immobility-and-improve-deterrence/
Reposted by Rafael Loss
The New START treaty doesn't expire until February 5. Stationing Oreshnik in Belarus prior to it's expiration is one last violation of the treaty. 🧵
December 24, 2025 at 5:51 PM
The New START treaty doesn't expire until February 5. Stationing Oreshnik in Belarus prior to it's expiration is one last violation of the treaty. 🧵
Reposted by Rafael Loss
Außenpolitisch interessierte Frauen unter 35 Jahren können sich jetzt für den Sylke Tempel Essaypreis 2026 bewerben. Es geht um „die Kunst des Kompromisses“. In der Jury sitzen u.a. @florencegaub.bsky.social und @joerglau.bsky.social. Alle Infos hier: internationalepolitik.de/de/sylke-tem...
Sylke Tempel Essaypreis 2026
Die hohe Kunst des Kompromisses: 2026 schreiben wir gemeinsam mit dem Netzwerk Women in International Security Deutschland (WIIS.de) den Sylke Tempel Essaypreis aus.
internationalepolitik.de
December 18, 2025 at 6:50 AM
Außenpolitisch interessierte Frauen unter 35 Jahren können sich jetzt für den Sylke Tempel Essaypreis 2026 bewerben. Es geht um „die Kunst des Kompromisses“. In der Jury sitzen u.a. @florencegaub.bsky.social und @joerglau.bsky.social. Alle Infos hier: internationalepolitik.de/de/sylke-tem...
And so the holidays begin.
a man says give me a ping vasily
Alt: The Hunt for Red October. “Give me a ping, Vasily. One ping only, please.”
media.tenor.com
December 17, 2025 at 8:16 PM
And so the holidays begin.
Reposted by Rafael Loss
Es ist wirklich wichtig, hier präzise zu sein:
Nein, der Staat kann niemanden dazu zwingen, auf jemanden zu schießen. Das steht im Grundgesetz und Details sind im – Achtung, langes Wort – Kriegsdienstverweigerungsgesetz geregelt.
Viel relevanter ist...
Nein, der Staat kann niemanden dazu zwingen, auf jemanden zu schießen. Das steht im Grundgesetz und Details sind im – Achtung, langes Wort – Kriegsdienstverweigerungsgesetz geregelt.
Viel relevanter ist...
December 9, 2025 at 8:17 AM
Es ist wirklich wichtig, hier präzise zu sein:
Nein, der Staat kann niemanden dazu zwingen, auf jemanden zu schießen. Das steht im Grundgesetz und Details sind im – Achtung, langes Wort – Kriegsdienstverweigerungsgesetz geregelt.
Viel relevanter ist...
Nein, der Staat kann niemanden dazu zwingen, auf jemanden zu schießen. Das steht im Grundgesetz und Details sind im – Achtung, langes Wort – Kriegsdienstverweigerungsgesetz geregelt.
Viel relevanter ist...
Tight timeline?
"Republicans will want to campaign in 2028 on the initial results of Washington’s effort to reduce America’s defence commitments in Europe," we wrote some weeks ago:
Look what you made us do: How to realise a European-led NATO ecfr.eu/article/look... @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social
"Republicans will want to campaign in 2028 on the initial results of Washington’s effort to reduce America’s defence commitments in Europe," we wrote some weeks ago:
Look what you made us do: How to realise a European-led NATO ecfr.eu/article/look... @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social
Exclusive: US sets 2027 deadline for Europe-led NATO defense, officials say reut.rs/3Mlif3R
Exclusive: US sets 2027 deadline for Europe-led NATO defense, officials say
The United States wants Europe to take over the majority of NATO's conventional defense capabilities, from intelligence to missiles, by 2027, Pentagon officials told diplomats in Washington this week, a tight deadline that struck some European officials as unrealistic.
reut.rs
December 5, 2025 at 4:34 PM
Tight timeline?
"Republicans will want to campaign in 2028 on the initial results of Washington’s effort to reduce America’s defence commitments in Europe," we wrote some weeks ago:
Look what you made us do: How to realise a European-led NATO ecfr.eu/article/look... @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social
"Republicans will want to campaign in 2028 on the initial results of Washington’s effort to reduce America’s defence commitments in Europe," we wrote some weeks ago:
Look what you made us do: How to realise a European-led NATO ecfr.eu/article/look... @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social
Showstoppers: How to fix Europe’s military immobility and improve deterrence ecfr.eu/article/show... @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social
Showstoppers: How to fix Europe’s military immobility and improve deterrence
Europeans are focused on improving their military readiness—but deterrence also depends on moving forces fast. EU infrastructure plans must prepare Europe’s land, sea and air routes for commerce and…
ecfr.eu
December 2, 2025 at 5:59 PM
Showstoppers: How to fix Europe’s military immobility and improve deterrence ecfr.eu/article/show... @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social
Reposted by Rafael Loss
My latest:
Der neue Inspekteur des Heeres, General Christian Freuding, gab vor dem Förderkreis #Heer in Berlin einen Ausblick auf seine Agenda zum #Ausbau der Landstreitkräfte. Was ihm wichtig ist, und wo er Probleme sieht, lest ihr hier 👉
www.reservistenverband.de/magazin-loya...
www.reservistenverband.de/magazin-loya...
November 28, 2025 at 11:58 AM
My latest:
As I wrote in September, countering Russian coercion “requires not only the right capabilities but also European leaders consistently demonstrating their tenacity to use them to impose costs and risks on Russia, even risking war, to sustain deterrence into the future.”
ecfr.eu/article/flau...
ecfr.eu/article/flau...
NEW: Europe is looking at joint offensive cyber operations and surprise military drills as Moscow steps up its campaign to destabilize NATO allies.
w/ @laukaya.bsky.social www.politico.eu/article/euro...
w/ @laukaya.bsky.social www.politico.eu/article/euro...
Europe thinks the unthinkable: Retaliating against Russia
Countries are looking at joint offensive cyber operations and surprise military drills as Moscow steps up its campaign to destabilize NATO allies.
www.politico.eu
November 27, 2025 at 9:29 PM
As I wrote in September, countering Russian coercion “requires not only the right capabilities but also European leaders consistently demonstrating their tenacity to use them to impose costs and risks on Russia, even risking war, to sustain deterrence into the future.”
ecfr.eu/article/flau...
ecfr.eu/article/flau...
Reposted by Rafael Loss
If your starting point is that you are more afraid of escalation than you are concerned about Russian sabotage, then you have effectively decided that you aren't willing to run the necessary risks to deter Russian grey-zone activity.
November 27, 2025 at 10:51 AM
If your starting point is that you are more afraid of escalation than you are concerned about Russian sabotage, then you have effectively decided that you aren't willing to run the necessary risks to deter Russian grey-zone activity.
Reposted by Rafael Loss
Mein Gastbeitrag für die ZEIT ist online. Er ordnet Trumps Rhetorik rund um neue Nukleartests ein, spielt mögliche Folgen durch und mahnt, dass die Erosion der Norm gegen Nukleartests eine europäische Antwort erfordert.
Geschenk-Link:
www.zeit.de/politik/ausl...
Geschenk-Link:
www.zeit.de/politik/ausl...
New Start: Die gefährliche Rhetorik von Trumps Nukleartestdrohung
Im Februar endet mit New Start das letzte Rüstungsabkommen zwischen Russland und den USA. Doch Trump redet von Atomtests – und gefährdet damit zukünftige Verhandlungen.
www.zeit.de
November 25, 2025 at 4:16 PM
Mein Gastbeitrag für die ZEIT ist online. Er ordnet Trumps Rhetorik rund um neue Nukleartests ein, spielt mögliche Folgen durch und mahnt, dass die Erosion der Norm gegen Nukleartests eine europäische Antwort erfordert.
Geschenk-Link:
www.zeit.de/politik/ausl...
Geschenk-Link:
www.zeit.de/politik/ausl...
Reposted by Rafael Loss
Eine große, schöne europäische Strategie für Trumponomics - @agathedemarais.bsky.social (@ecfrgeotech.bsky.social) und @jpuglierin.bsky.social diskutieren, wie diese aussehen könnte.
🗓️2.12., 17-18 Uhr
📍ECFR Berlin
Um Anmeldung wird gebeten! Zur Registrierung und allen Infos
👇
ecfr.eu/event/a-big-...
🗓️2.12., 17-18 Uhr
📍ECFR Berlin
Um Anmeldung wird gebeten! Zur Registrierung und allen Infos
👇
ecfr.eu/event/a-big-...
A big, beautiful European strategy for Trumponomics
Since the return of U.S. President Donald Trump to the White House in January, European policymakers have been struggling to sketch a sensible response to Trumponomics – an unpredictable…
ecfr.eu
November 25, 2025 at 5:11 PM
Eine große, schöne europäische Strategie für Trumponomics - @agathedemarais.bsky.social (@ecfrgeotech.bsky.social) und @jpuglierin.bsky.social diskutieren, wie diese aussehen könnte.
🗓️2.12., 17-18 Uhr
📍ECFR Berlin
Um Anmeldung wird gebeten! Zur Registrierung und allen Infos
👇
ecfr.eu/event/a-big-...
🗓️2.12., 17-18 Uhr
📍ECFR Berlin
Um Anmeldung wird gebeten! Zur Registrierung und allen Infos
👇
ecfr.eu/event/a-big-...
The Taiwan test: Why Europe should help deter China: ecfr.eu/publication/... @ecfrasia.bsky.social
The Taiwan test: Why Europe should help deter China
China’s military capabilities are growing and its actions in Europe are becoming more disruptive. The EU should support Taiwan with dual-use technologies and defence cooperation to send a clear signal...
ecfr.eu
November 25, 2025 at 10:52 AM
The Taiwan test: Why Europe should help deter China: ecfr.eu/publication/... @ecfrasia.bsky.social
Reposted by Rafael Loss
Donald Trump’s 28-point plan to end the fighting in Ukraine would be a dream outcome for the Kremlin. @jkobzova.bsky.social outlines how Europeans can ensure it does not become their continent’s nightmare
⬇️
ecfr.eu/article/what...
⬇️
ecfr.eu/article/what...
What Europe should do about a bad Ukraine deal
Donald Trump’s 28-point plan to end the fighting in Ukraine would be a dream outcome for the Kremlin. Here is how Europeans can ensure it does not become their continent’s nightmare.
ecfr.eu
November 23, 2025 at 8:53 PM
Donald Trump’s 28-point plan to end the fighting in Ukraine would be a dream outcome for the Kremlin. @jkobzova.bsky.social outlines how Europeans can ensure it does not become their continent’s nightmare
⬇️
ecfr.eu/article/what...
⬇️
ecfr.eu/article/what...
Reposted by Rafael Loss
Telefonat von Putin und Trump: "USA haben die russische Perspektive übernommen" www.tagesschau.de/ausland/euro...
Putin-Trump-Telefonat: "USA haben die russische Perspektive übernommen"
Das Telefonat mit Trump zeige, dass Putin weiterhin an seinen Forderungen festhalte, sagt Sicherheitsexperte Loss. Der US-Präsident mache sich dabei zum Erfüllungsgehilfen des Kremlchefs.
www.tagesschau.de
March 18, 2025 at 8:30 PM
Telefonat von Putin und Trump: "USA haben die russische Perspektive übernommen" www.tagesschau.de/ausland/euro...
Reposted by Rafael Loss
Nuclear weapons, so hot right now (I crack myself up).
@heatherwilly.bsky.social stayed to chat on weapons testing, the health of our nuclear deterrent, how she wished the public would engage on nuclear weapons, and House of Dynamite in our new mini
sites.libsyn.com/92063/more-o...
@heatherwilly.bsky.social stayed to chat on weapons testing, the health of our nuclear deterrent, how she wished the public would engage on nuclear weapons, and House of Dynamite in our new mini
sites.libsyn.com/92063/more-o...
Sirens: A Bombshell production: More on nuclear testing with Heather Williams
Are you equal parts terrified and fascinated by recent mentions of restarting nuclear testing? The ladies of bombshell are here to help! Join us for the full-length interview with PONI Director Heathe...
sites.libsyn.com
November 20, 2025 at 8:49 PM
Nuclear weapons, so hot right now (I crack myself up).
@heatherwilly.bsky.social stayed to chat on weapons testing, the health of our nuclear deterrent, how she wished the public would engage on nuclear weapons, and House of Dynamite in our new mini
sites.libsyn.com/92063/more-o...
@heatherwilly.bsky.social stayed to chat on weapons testing, the health of our nuclear deterrent, how she wished the public would engage on nuclear weapons, and House of Dynamite in our new mini
sites.libsyn.com/92063/more-o...
Reposted by Rafael Loss
Mein Kurzkommentar (auf Deutsch) zur ersten deutschen Weltraumsicherheitsstrategie ist nun online!
@swp-berlin.org @swp-intsecurity.bsky.social
www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
@swp-berlin.org @swp-intsecurity.bsky.social
www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
Ambitionierter Aufbruch: Die erste deutsche Weltraumsicherheitsstrategie
Mit Milliardeninvestitionen und einer neuen Strategie richtet Deutschland seine Rolle im Zeitalter wachsender Bedrohungen neu aus. Dadurch...
www.swp-berlin.org
November 20, 2025 at 12:47 PM
Mein Kurzkommentar (auf Deutsch) zur ersten deutschen Weltraumsicherheitsstrategie ist nun online!
@swp-berlin.org @swp-intsecurity.bsky.social
www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
@swp-berlin.org @swp-intsecurity.bsky.social
www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
Reposted by Rafael Loss
Zeitenwende: Space Edition 🚀
Germany has just published its first space security strategy.
Let’s take a look at 3 major points: Resilience, Partners and Freedom of Action
(link also leads to english PDF)
Germany has just published its first space security strategy.
Let’s take a look at 3 major points: Resilience, Partners and Freedom of Action
(link also leads to english PDF)
Verantwortung im All: Erste Weltraumsicherheitsstrategie der Bundesregierung
Freiheit und Sicherheit werden auch im Weltraum verteidigt. Pistorius und Wadephul stellen Weltraumsicherheitsstrategie vor.
www.bmvg.de
November 19, 2025 at 2:01 PM
Zeitenwende: Space Edition 🚀
Germany has just published its first space security strategy.
Let’s take a look at 3 major points: Resilience, Partners and Freedom of Action
(link also leads to english PDF)
Germany has just published its first space security strategy.
Let’s take a look at 3 major points: Resilience, Partners and Freedom of Action
(link also leads to english PDF)
Reposted by Rafael Loss
E-7 Wedgetail dead as NATO AWACS replacement. A huge shift, in particular as it is "Due to the US withdrawal" and "goal remains to have [...] aircraft operational by 2035" and "US withdrawal also demonstrates importance of investing as much as possible in European industry." Saab GlobalEye inbound?
Awacs-partners zoeken alternatief voor vervanging vloot
Nederland ziet samen met een aantal partnerlanden af van de verwerving van 6 Boeing E-7 Wedgetails. Ze waren in beeld als opvolger van de Boeings E-3A, die nu als Awacs-toestellen worden gebruikt. Dez...
www.defensie.nl
November 13, 2025 at 11:54 AM
E-7 Wedgetail dead as NATO AWACS replacement. A huge shift, in particular as it is "Due to the US withdrawal" and "goal remains to have [...] aircraft operational by 2035" and "US withdrawal also demonstrates importance of investing as much as possible in European industry." Saab GlobalEye inbound?
Vibing from Husum back to Berlin mit 71 Minuten Verspätung 🚅
November 8, 2025 at 8:27 PM
Vibing from Husum back to Berlin mit 71 Minuten Verspätung 🚅
Reuters: "A military source said a [ground-launched] 9M729 fired by Russia on October 5 flew over 1,200 km to its impact in Ukraine."
Exclusive: Russia uses missile in Ukraine that led Trump to quit nuclear treaty [in 2019], Kyiv says www.reuters.com/business/aer...
Exclusive: Russia uses missile in Ukraine that led Trump to quit nuclear treaty [in 2019], Kyiv says www.reuters.com/business/aer...
www.reuters.com
October 31, 2025 at 11:25 AM
Reuters: "A military source said a [ground-launched] 9M729 fired by Russia on October 5 flew over 1,200 km to its impact in Ukraine."
Exclusive: Russia uses missile in Ukraine that led Trump to quit nuclear treaty [in 2019], Kyiv says www.reuters.com/business/aer...
Exclusive: Russia uses missile in Ukraine that led Trump to quit nuclear treaty [in 2019], Kyiv says www.reuters.com/business/aer...
It should be JFC Naples rather than MARCOM. We’ll correct the error.
"They (The Europeans) should propose a Europeanisation of #NATO’s command structure, appointing European four-star officers to lead the NATO air, land and maritime commands, with US three-stars serving as their deputies to ensure continued integration."
The most effective deterrent to Russian aggression? According to Pete Hegseth: "a lethal, capable and European-led NATO."
My co-authors—Leoni Habedank and Katrine Westgaard—and I spell out what it takes to make NATO, its structures and its forces mostly European: ecfr.eu/article/look... @ecfr.eu
My co-authors—Leoni Habedank and Katrine Westgaard—and I spell out what it takes to make NATO, its structures and its forces mostly European: ecfr.eu/article/look... @ecfr.eu
October 30, 2025 at 9:28 PM
It should be JFC Naples rather than MARCOM. We’ll correct the error.
The most effective deterrent to Russian aggression? According to Pete Hegseth: "a lethal, capable and European-led NATO."
My co-authors—Leoni Habedank and Katrine Westgaard—and I spell out what it takes to make NATO, its structures and its forces mostly European: ecfr.eu/article/look... @ecfr.eu
My co-authors—Leoni Habedank and Katrine Westgaard—and I spell out what it takes to make NATO, its structures and its forces mostly European: ecfr.eu/article/look... @ecfr.eu
Look what you made us do: How to realise a European-led NATO
America’s gradual retreat from European security under the current Trump administration is reshaping NATO’s centre of gravity. To keep the alliance credible and united, Europeans not only need to…
ecfr.eu
October 30, 2025 at 5:02 PM
The most effective deterrent to Russian aggression? According to Pete Hegseth: "a lethal, capable and European-led NATO."
My co-authors—Leoni Habedank and Katrine Westgaard—and I spell out what it takes to make NATO, its structures and its forces mostly European: ecfr.eu/article/look... @ecfr.eu
My co-authors—Leoni Habedank and Katrine Westgaard—and I spell out what it takes to make NATO, its structures and its forces mostly European: ecfr.eu/article/look... @ecfr.eu
"The Bundeswehr plans to buy 400 Tomahawk Block Vb cruise missiles for roughly €1.15 billion, along with three Lockheed Martin Typhon launchers valued at €220 million — a combination that would give Germany a 2,000-kilometer strike reach." www.politico.eu/article/germ...
h/t @bjoernm.bsky.social
h/t @bjoernm.bsky.social
October 27, 2025 at 8:31 AM
"The Bundeswehr plans to buy 400 Tomahawk Block Vb cruise missiles for roughly €1.15 billion, along with three Lockheed Martin Typhon launchers valued at €220 million — a combination that would give Germany a 2,000-kilometer strike reach." www.politico.eu/article/germ...
h/t @bjoernm.bsky.social
h/t @bjoernm.bsky.social