Jeffrey Lewis
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armscontrolwonk.bsky.social
Jeffrey Lewis
@armscontrolwonk.bsky.social
17K followers 120 following 680 posts
Professor at the Middlebury Institute, member of the National Academies Committee on International Security and Arms Control, and former member of the State Department's International Security Advisory Board.
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Reposted by Jeffrey Lewis
mgerrydoyle.bsky.social
big things are afoot in japan www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Japan Defense Stocks Surge on Takaichi’s National Security Plans
Japan’s defense stocks surged on Monday after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s historic election victory raised investor expectations that her drive to strengthen Japan’s defense capabilities will acce...
www.bloomberg.com
February 9, 2026 at 8:56 AM
armscontrolwonk.bsky.social
Over on the bad site, I wrote a thread arguing that *one possibility* is that the Chinese are doing 1-point safety tests, with an overrun range in the hundreds of tons. If so, and Trump wants a Nobel Prize, we should just agree with the other nuclear powers that these don't count as explosions.
February 8, 2026 at 1:46 AM
Reposted by Jeffrey Lewis
aaronstein1.bsky.social
The blogfather @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social did 2 podcasts this week. First one is on the death of New Start

www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1221...
(Just Like) New START is Over
The New START treaty has expired leaving the US and Russia without a bilateral limit on offensive strategic arms for the first time in decades. There [...]
www.armscontrolwonk.com
February 7, 2026 at 11:45 PM
Reposted by Jeffrey Lewis
aaronstein1.bsky.social
And #2 with the blogfather @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social on China’s maybe decoupled nuclear experiment

www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1221...
Conscious Decoupling
U.S. Undersecretary of State Tom DiNanno accused China of conducting decoupled, low-yield nuclear tests including on June 22, 2020.  Aaron and Jeffrey [...]
www.armscontrolwonk.com
February 7, 2026 at 11:49 PM
armscontrolwonk.bsky.social
We recorded one yesterday.
gbrumfiel.bsky.social Geoff Brumfiel @gbrumfiel.bsky.social · 2d
So @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social, @wslafoy.bsky.social and @aaronstein1.bsky.social, I ASSUME the rule is also “Test a nuke, get a pod!” Right?

Just checking.
February 7, 2026 at 2:36 PM
armscontrolwonk.bsky.social
TWO PODS IN THE CAN. (One on New START, another on Chinese nuclear testing.)
February 6, 2026 at 9:07 PM
Reposted by Jeffrey Lewis
stanfordcisac.bsky.social
Next week: "Open Source Windows on China's Nuclear Forces, Policy and Strategy" with Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social

RSVP here⤵️
cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/events/open-...
Open Source Windows on China's Nuclear Forces, Policy and Strategy
cisac.fsi.stanford.edu
February 5, 2026 at 8:38 PM
armscontrolwonk.bsky.social
I'll be giving a talk on using open source tools to estimate China's nuclear forces, past and present at @stanfordcisac.bsky.social on February 12.
cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/events/open-...
Open Source Windows on China's Nuclear Forces, Policy and Strategy
cisac.fsi.stanford.edu
February 5, 2026 at 7:11 PM
armscontrolwonk.bsky.social
I adore @nuclearanthro.bsky.social.
January 22, 2026 at 9:03 PM
armscontrolwonk.bsky.social
Life comes at you fast.
January 20, 2026 at 9:04 PM
armscontrolwonk.bsky.social
January 19, 2026 at 5:34 PM
armscontrolwonk.bsky.social
Hive mind: I have some students in Vienna looking for bars and restaurants. Advice?
January 17, 2026 at 2:41 PM
armscontrolwonk.bsky.social
Russia has released a video showing the Oreshnik deployment site in Belarus. It appears to be the same site we announced last Friday, the former Krichev-6 aerodrome.
December 30, 2025 at 2:48 PM
armscontrolwonk.bsky.social
Along with @duitsmanms.bsky.social and @dexeve.bsky.social, I think we found the first deployment site in Belarus of the the Oreshnik IRBM. 🧵
December 26, 2025 at 7:28 PM
armscontrolwonk.bsky.social
Fixed that for you, KCNA.

"Comrade Kim Jong Un said that the Party Central Committee is pleased that the [surviving element of the] shipbuilding sector is upholding the Party's new century naval force construction line and achieving brilliant production results ..."
December 24, 2025 at 9:25 PM
armscontrolwonk.bsky.social
The New START treaty doesn't expire until February 5. Stationing Oreshnik in Belarus prior to it's expiration is one last violation of the treaty. 🧵
December 24, 2025 at 5:51 PM
Reposted by Jeffrey Lewis
nuclearanthro.bsky.social
I sued Dept of Energy b/c they were using fee status harassment to deny me use of FOIA

I almost broke my foot on stairs from scanning DOE FOIA stuff at UNM’s Zimmerman library

I know taste of a surprisingly large number of nuclear weapon reentry vehicles/bodies

#ArchiveAdventures
Screenshot of the first page of judicial opinion in Pfeiffer v Department of Energy MEMORANDUM OPINION The plaintiff, Martin Pfeiffer, brings this civil action against the defendant, the United States Department of Energy (the "Department"), alleging a violation under the Freedom of Information Act ("FOIA"), 5 U.S.C. § 552. See Complaint for Declaratory and Injunctive Relief ("Compl.") I 1, ECF No. 1. On June 27, 2022, the Court denied the Department's motion for summary judgment and granted in part and denied in part the plaintiff's cross-motion for summary judgment. See Pfeiffer v. U.S. Dep't of Energy, No. 20-cv-2924 (RBW), 2022 WL 2304069, at *8 (D.D.C. June 27, 2022) (the "June 27, 2022 Memorandum Opinion"). Currently pending before the Court is the Defendant's Motion for Reconsideration ("Def.'s Mot." or "the Department's motion"), ECF No. 22. Upon careful consideration of the parties' submissions,' the Court concludes for the following reasons that it must deny the Department's motion.
December 22, 2025 at 9:31 PM
Reposted by Jeffrey Lewis
beijingpalmer.bsky.social
Excellent NYT investigation confirms this.
December 16, 2025 at 7:09 PM
Reposted by Jeffrey Lewis
prchovanec.bsky.social
Let's not confuse the people giving the stupid orders with the people who have to deal with following them, who are often good and decent people.
November 28, 2025 at 3:04 AM
armscontrolwonk.bsky.social
The new PRC white paper on arms control contains a strong and clear endorsement of China's no-first use policy. Whatever else one might say about the paper or the policy, one can't say it is ambiguous.
Upholding a firm commitment to a policy of no-first-use of nuclear weapons and a nuclear strategy of self-defense. China was compelled to make the strategic choice to develop nuclear weapons at a particular point in history to deal with nuclear threats and blackmail, break the existing nuclear monopoly, and prevent nuclear wars. China's nuclear weapons are not intended to threaten other countries, but for defense and self-protection. China has never used nuclear weapons to threaten other countries nor deployed nuclear weapons outside its own territories, and has never provided a nuclear umbrella for other countries. Whether confronted with nuclear threats or blackmail during the Cold War, or in a complex international security environment with growing strategic security threats at present, China has always committed to its policy of no-first-use of nuclear weapons, firmly upheld a nuclear strategy of self-defense, and promoted the modernization of its nuclear forces to safeguard China's own strategic security and overall global strategic stability. China's greatest contribution to international nuclear arms control lies in the fact that it has the most stable, consistent and predictable nuclear policy among all nuclear-weapon states.
November 28, 2025 at 7:50 PM
armscontrolwonk.bsky.social
It’s about ethics in political journalism but we’re only at two guys.
November 27, 2025 at 8:27 PM
Reposted by Jeffrey Lewis
puca.bsky.social
Turkey has issued a number of NOTAMs for the Black Sea covering 23, 25, 26 November and 02 December, all are surface to unlimited & run between the hours of 2100 & 2259.

Officially described as "GUN FIRING" I think these may relate to planned missile tests from the launch complex at 41.93N 28.04E.
November 22, 2025 at 12:08 PM
armscontrolwonk.bsky.social
I might fly too much.
November 15, 2025 at 6:21 PM
armscontrolwonk.bsky.social
Is the pink three-piece suit still standard for NEST teams?
November 14, 2025 at 9:08 PM
armscontrolwonk.bsky.social
New book from @wellerstein.bsky.social , the foremost historian of the nuclear age. (Also, one of my favorite people.)
www.harpercollins.com/products/the...
The Most Awful Responsibility
\"I thought I knew the story but learned much that I didn’t know. Outstanding!\"— Richard Rhodes “This is historical research at its best.” — Dan ...
www.harpercollins.com
November 13, 2025 at 2:41 AM