Jeffrey Lewis
@armscontrolwonk.bsky.social
Professor at the Middlebury Institute, member of the National Academies Committee on International Security and Arms Control, and former member of the State Department's International Security Advisory Board.
Fixed that for you, KCNA.
"Comrade Kim Jong Un said that the Party Central Committee is pleased that the [surviving element of the] shipbuilding sector is upholding the Party's new century naval force construction line and achieving brilliant production results ..."
"Comrade Kim Jong Un said that the Party Central Committee is pleased that the [surviving element of the] shipbuilding sector is upholding the Party's new century naval force construction line and achieving brilliant production results ..."
December 24, 2025 at 9:25 PM
Fixed that for you, KCNA.
"Comrade Kim Jong Un said that the Party Central Committee is pleased that the [surviving element of the] shipbuilding sector is upholding the Party's new century naval force construction line and achieving brilliant production results ..."
"Comrade Kim Jong Un said that the Party Central Committee is pleased that the [surviving element of the] shipbuilding sector is upholding the Party's new century naval force construction line and achieving brilliant production results ..."
The New START treaty doesn't expire until February 5. Stationing Oreshnik in Belarus prior to it's expiration is one last violation of the treaty. 🧵
December 24, 2025 at 5:51 PM
The New START treaty doesn't expire until February 5. Stationing Oreshnik in Belarus prior to it's expiration is one last violation of the treaty. 🧵
Reposted by Jeffrey Lewis
I sued Dept of Energy b/c they were using fee status harassment to deny me use of FOIA
I almost broke my foot on stairs from scanning DOE FOIA stuff at UNM’s Zimmerman library
I know taste of a surprisingly large number of nuclear weapon reentry vehicles/bodies
#ArchiveAdventures
I almost broke my foot on stairs from scanning DOE FOIA stuff at UNM’s Zimmerman library
I know taste of a surprisingly large number of nuclear weapon reentry vehicles/bodies
#ArchiveAdventures
December 22, 2025 at 9:31 PM
I sued Dept of Energy b/c they were using fee status harassment to deny me use of FOIA
I almost broke my foot on stairs from scanning DOE FOIA stuff at UNM’s Zimmerman library
I know taste of a surprisingly large number of nuclear weapon reentry vehicles/bodies
#ArchiveAdventures
I almost broke my foot on stairs from scanning DOE FOIA stuff at UNM’s Zimmerman library
I know taste of a surprisingly large number of nuclear weapon reentry vehicles/bodies
#ArchiveAdventures
Reposted by Jeffrey Lewis
Excellent NYT investigation confirms this.
December 16, 2025 at 7:09 PM
Excellent NYT investigation confirms this.
Reposted by Jeffrey Lewis
Let's not confuse the people giving the stupid orders with the people who have to deal with following them, who are often good and decent people.
Apparently she offered to cover other people's shifts so they could go home to their families for the holiday.
www.cnn.com/2025/11/27/u...
www.cnn.com/2025/11/27/u...
Two National Guard members were tasked with serving the nation. One is dead as the other fights for his life after shooting | CNN
On a day when many families gather across the country to give thanks, a National Guard member’s family is mourning her death after an ambush-style shooting in Washington, DC, as her colleague fights f...
www.cnn.com
November 28, 2025 at 3:04 AM
Let's not confuse the people giving the stupid orders with the people who have to deal with following them, who are often good and decent people.
The new PRC white paper on arms control contains a strong and clear endorsement of China's no-first use policy. Whatever else one might say about the paper or the policy, one can't say it is ambiguous.
November 28, 2025 at 7:50 PM
The new PRC white paper on arms control contains a strong and clear endorsement of China's no-first use policy. Whatever else one might say about the paper or the policy, one can't say it is ambiguous.
It’s about ethics in political journalism but we’re only at two guys.
November 27, 2025 at 8:27 PM
It’s about ethics in political journalism but we’re only at two guys.
Reposted by Jeffrey Lewis
Turkey has issued a number of NOTAMs for the Black Sea covering 23, 25, 26 November and 02 December, all are surface to unlimited & run between the hours of 2100 & 2259.
Officially described as "GUN FIRING" I think these may relate to planned missile tests from the launch complex at 41.93N 28.04E.
Officially described as "GUN FIRING" I think these may relate to planned missile tests from the launch complex at 41.93N 28.04E.
November 22, 2025 at 12:08 PM
Turkey has issued a number of NOTAMs for the Black Sea covering 23, 25, 26 November and 02 December, all are surface to unlimited & run between the hours of 2100 & 2259.
Officially described as "GUN FIRING" I think these may relate to planned missile tests from the launch complex at 41.93N 28.04E.
Officially described as "GUN FIRING" I think these may relate to planned missile tests from the launch complex at 41.93N 28.04E.
I might fly too much.
November 15, 2025 at 6:21 PM
I might fly too much.
Is the pink three-piece suit still standard for NEST teams?
November 14, 2025 at 9:08 PM
Is the pink three-piece suit still standard for NEST teams?
New book from @wellerstein.bsky.social , the foremost historian of the nuclear age. (Also, one of my favorite people.)
www.harpercollins.com/products/the...
www.harpercollins.com/products/the...
The Most Awful Responsibility
\"I thought I knew the story but learned much that I didn’t know. Outstanding!\"— Richard Rhodes
“This is historical research at its best.” — Dan ...
www.harpercollins.com
November 13, 2025 at 2:41 AM
New book from @wellerstein.bsky.social , the foremost historian of the nuclear age. (Also, one of my favorite people.)
www.harpercollins.com/products/the...
www.harpercollins.com/products/the...
Getting ready for class on hypersonic missiles tomorrow.
November 10, 2025 at 2:35 AM
Getting ready for class on hypersonic missiles tomorrow.
The film #AHouseOfDynamite ends before the bomb hits Chicago, where @bulletinatomic.bsky.social is based. They asked me to describe what it would happen to the Windy City, so I dropped 20 KT and 4 MT bombs using @wellerstein.bsky.social's Nuke Map. (Hint: it's bad.)
thebulletin.org/2025/11/vide...
thebulletin.org/2025/11/vide...
Video: What to know about nuclear weapons
In this video, Jeffrey Lewis explains why it is so incredibly difficult to convey the size and destructive force of nuclear weapons.
thebulletin.org
November 9, 2025 at 8:53 PM
The film #AHouseOfDynamite ends before the bomb hits Chicago, where @bulletinatomic.bsky.social is based. They asked me to describe what it would happen to the Windy City, so I dropped 20 KT and 4 MT bombs using @wellerstein.bsky.social's Nuke Map. (Hint: it's bad.)
thebulletin.org/2025/11/vide...
thebulletin.org/2025/11/vide...
Reposted by Jeffrey Lewis
New post on the history of Soviet and Russian hydronuclear tests axesandatoms.substack.com/p/the-questi...
November 8, 2025 at 2:13 PM
New post on the history of Soviet and Russian hydronuclear tests axesandatoms.substack.com/p/the-questi...
Reposted by Jeffrey Lewis
President Trump's interview on 60 Minutes did very little to clarify his stance on the United States resuming full-scale nuclear tests for the first time in more than three decades. Let's look at some of his statements. 1/11
November 3, 2025 at 1:49 PM
President Trump's interview on 60 Minutes did very little to clarify his stance on the United States resuming full-scale nuclear tests for the first time in more than three decades. Let's look at some of his statements. 1/11
Reposted by Jeffrey Lewis
one of those funny little things where a one-term democratic administration picking the wrong lawyer with an inflated sense of doing things as written rather than as intended leads to catastrophic downside (in this case, Carter, 1980, and government shutdowns) www.govexec.com/management/2...
That Time a Lawyer Invented the Government Shutdown
For nearly 200 years, shutdowns simply didn’t happen, even when Congress didn’t finish spending bills.
www.govexec.com
November 3, 2025 at 6:47 PM
one of those funny little things where a one-term democratic administration picking the wrong lawyer with an inflated sense of doing things as written rather than as intended leads to catastrophic downside (in this case, Carter, 1980, and government shutdowns) www.govexec.com/management/2...
Reposted by Jeffrey Lewis
The blogfather @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social and I sat down to talk about the potential for a return to nuclear testing and what we think it may mean -
www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1220...
www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1220...
A Return to Nuclear Testing
Donald Trump directed “the Department of War to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis” with other countries. The Department [...]
www.armscontrolwonk.com
November 4, 2025 at 1:12 AM
The blogfather @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social and I sat down to talk about the potential for a return to nuclear testing and what we think it may mean -
www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1220...
www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1220...
All nuclear explosions are supercritical. He probably means “hydronuclear” — slightly supercritical with insignificant fission release (<1 lb). The US conducted ~35 during the 1958-1961 test moratorium. As a Harvard-educated lawyer, he can understand this—if it’s to his benefit.
November 4, 2025 at 12:42 AM
All nuclear explosions are supercritical. He probably means “hydronuclear” — slightly supercritical with insignificant fission release (<1 lb). The US conducted ~35 during the 1958-1961 test moratorium. As a Harvard-educated lawyer, he can understand this—if it’s to his benefit.
This clarifies nothing.
JD Vance: "It's an important part of American national security to make sure that this nuclear arsenal we have actually functions properly. To be clear, we know that it does work properly."
October 30, 2025 at 8:08 PM
This clarifies nothing.
Reposted by Jeffrey Lewis
Resuming U.S. Nuclear Tests Would Only Help China, One Expert Says
www.scientificamerican.com/article/trum...
“The only countries that will really learn more if testing resumes are Russia and to a much greater extent China,” says Jeffrey Lewis - @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social
www.scientificamerican.com/article/trum...
“The only countries that will really learn more if testing resumes are Russia and to a much greater extent China,” says Jeffrey Lewis - @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social
Resuming U.S. Nuclear Tests Would Only Help China, One Expert Says
“The only countries that will really learn more if testing resumes are Russia and to a much greater extent China,” Jeffrey Lewis says
www.scientificamerican.com
October 30, 2025 at 4:52 PM
Resuming U.S. Nuclear Tests Would Only Help China, One Expert Says
www.scientificamerican.com/article/trum...
“The only countries that will really learn more if testing resumes are Russia and to a much greater extent China,” says Jeffrey Lewis - @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social
www.scientificamerican.com/article/trum...
“The only countries that will really learn more if testing resumes are Russia and to a much greater extent China,” says Jeffrey Lewis - @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social
Reposted by Jeffrey Lewis
Now on @sciam.bsky.social: At least one nuclear-weapons expert (one of many, I’d reckon) is baffled by Trump’s call to “immediately” resume U.S. nuclear tests.
An enlightening convo with @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social, courtesy of @danvergano.bsky.social.
www.scientificamerican.com/article/trum...
An enlightening convo with @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social, courtesy of @danvergano.bsky.social.
www.scientificamerican.com/article/trum...
Resuming U.S. Nuclear Tests Would Only Help China, One Expert Says
“The only countries that will really learn more if testing resumes are Russia and to a much greater extent China,” Jeffrey Lewis says
www.scientificamerican.com
October 30, 2025 at 5:00 PM
Now on @sciam.bsky.social: At least one nuclear-weapons expert (one of many, I’d reckon) is baffled by Trump’s call to “immediately” resume U.S. nuclear tests.
An enlightening convo with @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social, courtesy of @danvergano.bsky.social.
www.scientificamerican.com/article/trum...
An enlightening convo with @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social, courtesy of @danvergano.bsky.social.
www.scientificamerican.com/article/trum...
Reposted by Jeffrey Lewis
DoD (DoW?) doesn't run US nuclear testing. DoE does. So I think the actual tip off of what Trump meant came from the statement itself. But who knows. Renewed US nuclear tests was on my bingo card for any GOP administration, as @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social and I discussed on our podcast many times
October 30, 2025 at 2:45 PM
DoD (DoW?) doesn't run US nuclear testing. DoE does. So I think the actual tip off of what Trump meant came from the statement itself. But who knows. Renewed US nuclear tests was on my bingo card for any GOP administration, as @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social and I discussed on our podcast many times
Last year, I wrote an article for @foreignaffairs.com on why the US stands to lose the most from a resumption of nuclear testing.
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
Why America Stands to Lose If It Resumes Nuclear Testing
China and Russia would finally be able to catch up.
www.foreignaffairs.com
October 30, 2025 at 3:29 PM
Last year, I wrote an article for @foreignaffairs.com on why the US stands to lose the most from a resumption of nuclear testing.
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
Another resource: What would be the purpose of nuclear testing if the US matched what Russia is accused of doing? The @nationalacademies.org panel on the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty outlined what one might do with so-called hydronuclear, extremely low-yieldand very low-yield tests.
October 30, 2025 at 2:47 PM
Another resource: What would be the purpose of nuclear testing if the US matched what Russia is accused of doing? The @nationalacademies.org panel on the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty outlined what one might do with so-called hydronuclear, extremely low-yieldand very low-yield tests.