Jeffrey Lewis
@armscontrolwonk.bsky.social
Professor at the Middlebury Institute, member of the National Academies Committee on International Security and Arms Control, and former member of the State Department's International Security Advisory Board.
Getting ready for class on hypersonic missiles tomorrow.
November 10, 2025 at 2:35 AM
Getting ready for class on hypersonic missiles tomorrow.
The film #AHouseOfDynamite ends before the bomb hits Chicago, where @bulletinatomic.bsky.social is based. They asked me to describe what it would happen to the Windy City, so I dropped 20 KT and 4 MT bombs using @wellerstein.bsky.social's Nuke Map. (Hint: it's bad.)
thebulletin.org/2025/11/vide...
thebulletin.org/2025/11/vide...
Video: What to know about nuclear weapons
In this video, Jeffrey Lewis explains why it is so incredibly difficult to convey the size and destructive force of nuclear weapons.
thebulletin.org
November 9, 2025 at 8:53 PM
The film #AHouseOfDynamite ends before the bomb hits Chicago, where @bulletinatomic.bsky.social is based. They asked me to describe what it would happen to the Windy City, so I dropped 20 KT and 4 MT bombs using @wellerstein.bsky.social's Nuke Map. (Hint: it's bad.)
thebulletin.org/2025/11/vide...
thebulletin.org/2025/11/vide...
Reposted by Jeffrey Lewis
New post on the history of Soviet and Russian hydronuclear tests axesandatoms.substack.com/p/the-questi...
November 8, 2025 at 2:13 PM
New post on the history of Soviet and Russian hydronuclear tests axesandatoms.substack.com/p/the-questi...
Reposted by Jeffrey Lewis
President Trump's interview on 60 Minutes did very little to clarify his stance on the United States resuming full-scale nuclear tests for the first time in more than three decades. Let's look at some of his statements. 1/11
November 3, 2025 at 1:49 PM
President Trump's interview on 60 Minutes did very little to clarify his stance on the United States resuming full-scale nuclear tests for the first time in more than three decades. Let's look at some of his statements. 1/11
Reposted by Jeffrey Lewis
one of those funny little things where a one-term democratic administration picking the wrong lawyer with an inflated sense of doing things as written rather than as intended leads to catastrophic downside (in this case, Carter, 1980, and government shutdowns) www.govexec.com/management/2...
That Time a Lawyer Invented the Government Shutdown
For nearly 200 years, shutdowns simply didn’t happen, even when Congress didn’t finish spending bills.
www.govexec.com
November 3, 2025 at 6:47 PM
one of those funny little things where a one-term democratic administration picking the wrong lawyer with an inflated sense of doing things as written rather than as intended leads to catastrophic downside (in this case, Carter, 1980, and government shutdowns) www.govexec.com/management/2...
Reposted by Jeffrey Lewis
The blogfather @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social and I sat down to talk about the potential for a return to nuclear testing and what we think it may mean -
www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1220...
www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1220...
A Return to Nuclear Testing
Donald Trump directed “the Department of War to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis” with other countries. The Department [...]
www.armscontrolwonk.com
November 4, 2025 at 1:12 AM
The blogfather @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social and I sat down to talk about the potential for a return to nuclear testing and what we think it may mean -
www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1220...
www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1220...
All nuclear explosions are supercritical. He probably means “hydronuclear” — slightly supercritical with insignificant fission release (<1 lb). The US conducted ~35 during the 1958-1961 test moratorium. As a Harvard-educated lawyer, he can understand this—if it’s to his benefit.
November 4, 2025 at 12:42 AM
All nuclear explosions are supercritical. He probably means “hydronuclear” — slightly supercritical with insignificant fission release (<1 lb). The US conducted ~35 during the 1958-1961 test moratorium. As a Harvard-educated lawyer, he can understand this—if it’s to his benefit.
This clarifies nothing.
JD Vance: "It's an important part of American national security to make sure that this nuclear arsenal we have actually functions properly. To be clear, we know that it does work properly."
October 30, 2025 at 8:08 PM
This clarifies nothing.
Reposted by Jeffrey Lewis
Resuming U.S. Nuclear Tests Would Only Help China, One Expert Says
www.scientificamerican.com/article/trum...
“The only countries that will really learn more if testing resumes are Russia and to a much greater extent China,” says Jeffrey Lewis - @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social
www.scientificamerican.com/article/trum...
“The only countries that will really learn more if testing resumes are Russia and to a much greater extent China,” says Jeffrey Lewis - @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social
Resuming U.S. Nuclear Tests Would Only Help China, One Expert Says
“The only countries that will really learn more if testing resumes are Russia and to a much greater extent China,” Jeffrey Lewis says
www.scientificamerican.com
October 30, 2025 at 4:52 PM
Resuming U.S. Nuclear Tests Would Only Help China, One Expert Says
www.scientificamerican.com/article/trum...
“The only countries that will really learn more if testing resumes are Russia and to a much greater extent China,” says Jeffrey Lewis - @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social
www.scientificamerican.com/article/trum...
“The only countries that will really learn more if testing resumes are Russia and to a much greater extent China,” says Jeffrey Lewis - @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social
Reposted by Jeffrey Lewis
Now on @sciam.bsky.social: At least one nuclear-weapons expert (one of many, I’d reckon) is baffled by Trump’s call to “immediately” resume U.S. nuclear tests.
An enlightening convo with @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social, courtesy of @danvergano.bsky.social.
www.scientificamerican.com/article/trum...
An enlightening convo with @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social, courtesy of @danvergano.bsky.social.
www.scientificamerican.com/article/trum...
Resuming U.S. Nuclear Tests Would Only Help China, One Expert Says
“The only countries that will really learn more if testing resumes are Russia and to a much greater extent China,” Jeffrey Lewis says
www.scientificamerican.com
October 30, 2025 at 5:00 PM
Now on @sciam.bsky.social: At least one nuclear-weapons expert (one of many, I’d reckon) is baffled by Trump’s call to “immediately” resume U.S. nuclear tests.
An enlightening convo with @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social, courtesy of @danvergano.bsky.social.
www.scientificamerican.com/article/trum...
An enlightening convo with @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social, courtesy of @danvergano.bsky.social.
www.scientificamerican.com/article/trum...
Reposted by Jeffrey Lewis
DoD (DoW?) doesn't run US nuclear testing. DoE does. So I think the actual tip off of what Trump meant came from the statement itself. But who knows. Renewed US nuclear tests was on my bingo card for any GOP administration, as @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social and I discussed on our podcast many times
October 30, 2025 at 2:45 PM
DoD (DoW?) doesn't run US nuclear testing. DoE does. So I think the actual tip off of what Trump meant came from the statement itself. But who knows. Renewed US nuclear tests was on my bingo card for any GOP administration, as @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social and I discussed on our podcast many times
Last year, I wrote an article for @foreignaffairs.com on why the US stands to lose the most from a resumption of nuclear testing.
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
Why America Stands to Lose If It Resumes Nuclear Testing
China and Russia would finally be able to catch up.
www.foreignaffairs.com
October 30, 2025 at 3:29 PM
Last year, I wrote an article for @foreignaffairs.com on why the US stands to lose the most from a resumption of nuclear testing.
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
Another resource: What would be the purpose of nuclear testing if the US matched what Russia is accused of doing? The @nationalacademies.org panel on the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty outlined what one might do with so-called hydronuclear, extremely low-yieldand very low-yield tests.
October 30, 2025 at 2:47 PM
Another resource: What would be the purpose of nuclear testing if the US matched what Russia is accused of doing? The @nationalacademies.org panel on the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty outlined what one might do with so-called hydronuclear, extremely low-yieldand very low-yield tests.
The @statedeptus.bsky.social 2021 "compliance report" is the most detailed unclassified statement on Russian, Chinese nuclear testing. DIA said something similar in 2019. Russia is directly accused of low-yield testing, while there are only concerns about Chinese transparency.
October 30, 2025 at 2:28 PM
The @statedeptus.bsky.social 2021 "compliance report" is the most detailed unclassified statement on Russian, Chinese nuclear testing. DIA said something similar in 2019. Russia is directly accused of low-yield testing, while there are only concerns about Chinese transparency.
Reposted by Jeffrey Lewis
I was hoping I'd get around to doing a full review in the next month or so, once the vessels had gone home - but anyway, just to highlight something: there were, since August, something like 6 or 7 other potential test windows, based on vessel/aircraft movements. Below just shows since September.
October 26, 2025 at 2:44 PM
I was hoping I'd get around to doing a full review in the next month or so, once the vessels had gone home - but anyway, just to highlight something: there were, since August, something like 6 or 7 other potential test windows, based on vessel/aircraft movements. Below just shows since September.
David was all over that Burevestnik test.
Vessels appear to be beginning their migration from Matochkin Shar, northwards to monitoring positions, either side of the north island.
Current Burevestnik related NOTAMs cover out to 22 OCT.
Current Burevestnik related NOTAMs cover out to 22 OCT.
October 26, 2025 at 2:32 PM
David was all over that Burevestnik test.
Reposted by Jeffrey Lewis
Vessels appear to be beginning their migration from Matochkin Shar, northwards to monitoring positions, either side of the north island.
Current Burevestnik related NOTAMs cover out to 22 OCT.
Current Burevestnik related NOTAMs cover out to 22 OCT.
October 19, 2025 at 11:45 AM
Vessels appear to be beginning their migration from Matochkin Shar, northwards to monitoring positions, either side of the north island.
Current Burevestnik related NOTAMs cover out to 22 OCT.
Current Burevestnik related NOTAMs cover out to 22 OCT.
Reposted by Jeffrey Lewis
Also @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social's TIMELESS classic, the 2020 Commission....
The 2020 Commission Report on the North Korean Nuclear Attacks Against the United States: A Speculative Novel
Amazon.com: The 2020 Commission Report on the North Korean Nuclear Attacks Against the United States: A Speculative Novel eBook : Lewis, Jeffrey: Books
www.amazon.com
October 24, 2025 at 2:11 PM
Also @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social's TIMELESS classic, the 2020 Commission....
Reposted by Jeffrey Lewis
In @npr.org, experts discuss what #AHouseOfDynamite gets right—and wrong—about nuclear war. Featuring expertise from @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social and Daryl Kimball of @armscontrolnow.bsky.social
www.npr.org/2025/10/24/n...
www.npr.org/2025/10/24/n...
Here's what experts say 'A House of Dynamite' gets wrong (and right) about nuclear war
Some praised realistic elements like the depiction of the White House situation room. But others said parts of the plot didn't ring true.
www.npr.org
October 24, 2025 at 6:33 PM
In @npr.org, experts discuss what #AHouseOfDynamite gets right—and wrong—about nuclear war. Featuring expertise from @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social and Daryl Kimball of @armscontrolnow.bsky.social
www.npr.org/2025/10/24/n...
www.npr.org/2025/10/24/n...
It's normal to spiff up the capital when one takes power.
October 23, 2025 at 5:42 PM
It's normal to spiff up the capital when one takes power.
Reposted by Jeffrey Lewis
The South Korean military now saying this launch involved "several projectiles believed to be short-range ballistic missiles."
Launched around 8:10am Wednesday from the vicinity of Chunghwa, North Hwanghae Province, North Korea.
Launched around 8:10am Wednesday from the vicinity of Chunghwa, North Hwanghae Province, North Korea.
5 days ago, the ROK defense minister indicated North Korea might test the new large, solid-propellant ICBM that North Korea presented at its most recent parade (Hwasong-20). That's what we assume this is, although that's still speculation. No announcement by the Japanese yet.
October 22, 2025 at 12:48 AM
The South Korean military now saying this launch involved "several projectiles believed to be short-range ballistic missiles."
Launched around 8:10am Wednesday from the vicinity of Chunghwa, North Hwanghae Province, North Korea.
Launched around 8:10am Wednesday from the vicinity of Chunghwa, North Hwanghae Province, North Korea.
5 days ago, the ROK defense minister indicated North Korea might test the new large, solid-propellant ICBM that North Korea presented at its most recent parade (Hwasong-20). That's what we assume this is, although that's still speculation. No announcement by the Japanese yet.
October 21, 2025 at 11:59 PM
5 days ago, the ROK defense minister indicated North Korea might test the new large, solid-propellant ICBM that North Korea presented at its most recent parade (Hwasong-20). That's what we assume this is, although that's still speculation. No announcement by the Japanese yet.
I am starting to see why, having been purged twice, Xiang Shouzhi declined a third opportunity to run the rocket force (then-Second Artillery) explaining that he preferred tending pigs during reeducation through labor to another stint at court.
we really need a name for when the guy appointed to take over a position after the previous guy was purged is then purged himself. for instance, Wang Houbin, who was just officially purged, took over as Rocket Force commander from Li Yuchao in mid-2023.
October 20, 2025 at 3:07 AM
I am starting to see why, having been purged twice, Xiang Shouzhi declined a third opportunity to run the rocket force (then-Second Artillery) explaining that he preferred tending pigs during reeducation through labor to another stint at court.