Paul Cormarie
@paulcormarie.bsky.social
RAND Analyst | European defense & nukes | 🇫🇷🇺🇸
Pinned
Paul Cormarie
@paulcormarie.bsky.social
· May 29
Everything Changes but Nothing Changes: Can France Overcome its Own Nuclear Doctrine? - War on the Rocks
In a recent interview broadcast live on French television, President Emmanuel Macron declared: Ever since there has been a nuclear doctrine since Charles
warontherocks.com
@floriangalleri.bsky.social and my latest for @warontherocks.bsky.social. We argue that the French nuclear doctrine is at a crossroads: ambiguity, sufficiency, final warning and other concepts should be debated for a bigger French role in European deterrence warontherocks.com/2025/05/ever...
Reposted by Paul Cormarie
New @rand.org report on biosecurity:
Protecting Biological Materials and Services from Misuse: Opportunities for Access Monitoring and Control
www.rand.org/pubs/researc...
Protecting Biological Materials and Services from Misuse: Opportunities for Access Monitoring and Control
www.rand.org/pubs/researc...
Protecting Biological Materials and Services from Misuse
The authors explore critical points within the biological supply network that bad actors might exploit to develop biological weapons. The authors develop recommendations for enhancing data collection,...
www.rand.org
October 21, 2025 at 2:27 PM
New @rand.org report on biosecurity:
Protecting Biological Materials and Services from Misuse: Opportunities for Access Monitoring and Control
www.rand.org/pubs/researc...
Protecting Biological Materials and Services from Misuse: Opportunities for Access Monitoring and Control
www.rand.org/pubs/researc...
Reposted by Paul Cormarie
An overview of how the new EU-Canada SDP fits in with sister agts: a mix of UK/Nor and Japan/ROK
PDF: bit.ly/UshGraphic142
Full text synopsis: bit.ly/EUSDPs
@ukandeu.bsky.social
PDF: bit.ly/UshGraphic142
Full text synopsis: bit.ly/EUSDPs
@ukandeu.bsky.social
June 25, 2025 at 9:44 AM
An overview of how the new EU-Canada SDP fits in with sister agts: a mix of UK/Nor and Japan/ROK
PDF: bit.ly/UshGraphic142
Full text synopsis: bit.ly/EUSDPs
@ukandeu.bsky.social
PDF: bit.ly/UshGraphic142
Full text synopsis: bit.ly/EUSDPs
@ukandeu.bsky.social
Reposted by Paul Cormarie
Good morning.
With the addition of 4 tankers out of New Jersey, there are now at least 32 tankers observed in the overnight group.
A considerable portion went to Morón Air Base in Spain, with others on to UK, Germany, Italy and 1 to Estonia. A few pressed on to CENTCOM AOR.
With the addition of 4 tankers out of New Jersey, there are now at least 32 tankers observed in the overnight group.
A considerable portion went to Morón Air Base in Spain, with others on to UK, Germany, Italy and 1 to Estonia. A few pressed on to CENTCOM AOR.
June 16, 2025 at 11:58 AM
Good morning.
With the addition of 4 tankers out of New Jersey, there are now at least 32 tankers observed in the overnight group.
A considerable portion went to Morón Air Base in Spain, with others on to UK, Germany, Italy and 1 to Estonia. A few pressed on to CENTCOM AOR.
With the addition of 4 tankers out of New Jersey, there are now at least 32 tankers observed in the overnight group.
A considerable portion went to Morón Air Base in Spain, with others on to UK, Germany, Italy and 1 to Estonia. A few pressed on to CENTCOM AOR.
Reposted by Paul Cormarie
"It isn’t very important which tactical nuclear option we choose – F-35A, a French style standoff weapon, or Tomahawk. What is important is that we choose at least one and get it into service."
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/06...
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/06...
These are Britain’s options for tactical nuclear weapons. We must choose, and act
What weapon is not as important as whether there is one
www.telegraph.co.uk
June 9, 2025 at 6:34 PM
"It isn’t very important which tactical nuclear option we choose – F-35A, a French style standoff weapon, or Tomahawk. What is important is that we choose at least one and get it into service."
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/06...
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/06...
Reposted by Paul Cormarie
The Ministry of Defence has published its intent to award a 15-year, £2.9 billion contract to Thales UK Limited for the in-service support of a wide range of maritime sensors used across the Royal Navy’s surface ships and submarines.
ukdefencejournal.org.uk/mod-plans-hu...
ukdefencejournal.org.uk/mod-plans-hu...
MoD plans huge £2.9bn sensor support contract with Thales UK
The Ministry of Defence has published its intent to award a 15-year, £2.9 billion contract to Thales UK Limited for the in-service support of a wide range of maritime sensors used across the Royal Navy’s surface ships and submarines.
ukdefencejournal.org.uk
June 1, 2025 at 4:50 PM
The Ministry of Defence has published its intent to award a 15-year, £2.9 billion contract to Thales UK Limited for the in-service support of a wide range of maritime sensors used across the Royal Navy’s surface ships and submarines.
ukdefencejournal.org.uk/mod-plans-hu...
ukdefencejournal.org.uk/mod-plans-hu...
@floriangalleri.bsky.social and my latest for @warontherocks.bsky.social. We argue that the French nuclear doctrine is at a crossroads: ambiguity, sufficiency, final warning and other concepts should be debated for a bigger French role in European deterrence warontherocks.com/2025/05/ever...
Everything Changes but Nothing Changes: Can France Overcome its Own Nuclear Doctrine? - War on the Rocks
In a recent interview broadcast live on French television, President Emmanuel Macron declared: Ever since there has been a nuclear doctrine since Charles
warontherocks.com
May 29, 2025 at 4:10 PM
@floriangalleri.bsky.social and my latest for @warontherocks.bsky.social. We argue that the French nuclear doctrine is at a crossroads: ambiguity, sufficiency, final warning and other concepts should be debated for a bigger French role in European deterrence warontherocks.com/2025/05/ever...
Reposted by Paul Cormarie
🏆 To celebrate the arrival of my "Littoral Commander: Baltics" #wargame, I am going to give away a signed copy of the game. Like, repost, and follow by April 8 (midnight EST)! May the odds be ever in your favor. 😉🎲 #wargaming
April 6, 2025 at 2:37 PM
🏆 To celebrate the arrival of my "Littoral Commander: Baltics" #wargame, I am going to give away a signed copy of the game. Like, repost, and follow by April 8 (midnight EST)! May the odds be ever in your favor. 😉🎲 #wargaming
Reposted by Paul Cormarie
Now that Washington is potentially an unreliable ally, the UK needs to revisit its nuclear strategy. But going it alone is costly, and partnering with France poses its own risks.
The UK’s nuclear deterrent relies on US support – but there are no other easy alternatives
Now that Washington is potentially an unreliable ally, the UK needs to revisit its nuclear strategy. But going alone is costly, and partnering with France poses its own risks.
www.chathamhouse.org
March 30, 2025 at 11:10 AM
Now that Washington is potentially an unreliable ally, the UK needs to revisit its nuclear strategy. But going it alone is costly, and partnering with France poses its own risks.
Reposted by Paul Cormarie
☢️ In a new European survey, more than 60 percent of respondents agree that “France's nuclear deterrent must be extended to all members of the European Union”
#nukesky
legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/03/2...
#nukesky
legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/03/2...
March 21, 2025 at 3:49 PM
☢️ In a new European survey, more than 60 percent of respondents agree that “France's nuclear deterrent must be extended to all members of the European Union”
#nukesky
legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/03/2...
#nukesky
legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/03/2...
Reposted by Paul Cormarie
🚨 Just in: Ursula von der Leyen unveils the "Rearm Europe Plan" to mobilise up to €800 billion in defence investment across the bloc.
"We're living in the most momentum and dangerous of times," she says. "We are in an era of rearmament."
"This is the moment for Europe. We're ready to step up."
"We're living in the most momentum and dangerous of times," she says. "We are in an era of rearmament."
"This is the moment for Europe. We're ready to step up."
March 4, 2025 at 8:39 AM
🚨 Just in: Ursula von der Leyen unveils the "Rearm Europe Plan" to mobilise up to €800 billion in defence investment across the bloc.
"We're living in the most momentum and dangerous of times," she says. "We are in an era of rearmament."
"This is the moment for Europe. We're ready to step up."
"We're living in the most momentum and dangerous of times," she says. "We are in an era of rearmament."
"This is the moment for Europe. We're ready to step up."
Reposted by Paul Cormarie
Yes. As a ballpark figure, it makes sense: to the 2% baseline add 0.5% to replace US stopping aid to Ukraine, another 0.5% to reach NATO capability goals with USA still in Europe, and 0.5%-plus to do same after Americans leave. Hence a 3.5% goal pushing towards 4%
In fact not just France but all of the EU. Not entirely clear from the write-up
March 2, 2025 at 10:15 PM
Yes. As a ballpark figure, it makes sense: to the 2% baseline add 0.5% to replace US stopping aid to Ukraine, another 0.5% to reach NATO capability goals with USA still in Europe, and 0.5%-plus to do same after Americans leave. Hence a 3.5% goal pushing towards 4%
Reposted by Paul Cormarie
Quite a big deal from NATO’s official contrarian:
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan: “We are in favor of Ukraine becoming a NATO member. This was the statement from our President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, so this is our official position.”
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan: “We are in favor of Ukraine becoming a NATO member. This was the statement from our President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, so this is our official position.”
February 24, 2025 at 10:42 PM
Quite a big deal from NATO’s official contrarian:
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan: “We are in favor of Ukraine becoming a NATO member. This was the statement from our President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, so this is our official position.”
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan: “We are in favor of Ukraine becoming a NATO member. This was the statement from our President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, so this is our official position.”
See my latest for @lawfare.bsky.social !
Despite domestic turmoil, France is still well-positioned to be a leader for European foreign policy and Trump’s hotline to Europe, writes Paul Cormarie in this week’s Foreign Policy Essay. www.lawfaremedia.org/article/can-...
Can Macron Be Europe’s Delegate?
Despite domestic turmoil, France can be a leader for Europe’s security policy.
www.lawfaremedia.org
February 24, 2025 at 2:30 PM
See my latest for @lawfare.bsky.social !
Maybe we finally get that “strategic dialogue” proposed by France at the public level
“We need to have discussions with both the British and the French — the two European nuclear powers — about whether nuclear sharing, or at least nuclear security from the U.K. and France, could also apply to us”
www.politico.eu/article/euro...
www.politico.eu/article/euro...
Europe should brace for Trump to end NATO protection, Germany’s Merz warns
Merz said there was need to discuss Germany coming under British and French nuclear protection.
www.politico.eu
February 21, 2025 at 2:45 PM
Maybe we finally get that “strategic dialogue” proposed by France at the public level
“We need to have discussions with both the British and the French — the two European nuclear powers — about whether nuclear sharing, or at least nuclear security from the U.K. and France, could also apply to us”
www.politico.eu/article/euro...
www.politico.eu/article/euro...
Europe should brace for Trump to end NATO protection, Germany’s Merz warns
Merz said there was need to discuss Germany coming under British and French nuclear protection.
www.politico.eu
February 21, 2025 at 2:37 PM
“We need to have discussions with both the British and the French — the two European nuclear powers — about whether nuclear sharing, or at least nuclear security from the U.K. and France, could also apply to us”
www.politico.eu/article/euro...
www.politico.eu/article/euro...
Reposted by Paul Cormarie
Norway and the UK are working on a new defense agreement, to enhance strategic cooperation, more joint training and exercises, and further enhanced intelligence cooperation.
The Norwegian Defence Minister calls the new agreement ambitious.
www.nrk.no/tromsogfinnm...
The Norwegian Defence Minister calls the new agreement ambitious.
www.nrk.no/tromsogfinnm...
Forsvarsministre signaliserer sterk Nato-allianse: – Vi er på vakt, vi trygger Norge
Norge og Storbritannia søker til hverandre når verdensbildet blir mer ustabilt.
www.nrk.no
February 20, 2025 at 2:10 PM
Norway and the UK are working on a new defense agreement, to enhance strategic cooperation, more joint training and exercises, and further enhanced intelligence cooperation.
The Norwegian Defence Minister calls the new agreement ambitious.
www.nrk.no/tromsogfinnm...
The Norwegian Defence Minister calls the new agreement ambitious.
www.nrk.no/tromsogfinnm...
Reposted by Paul Cormarie
Europe not on the table, but on the menu
February 18, 2025 at 8:26 AM
Europe not on the table, but on the menu
Reposted by Paul Cormarie
Ukraine is getting nothing concrete. No security guarantees from the US of any value, no NATO membership, even it seems, no promise of future US aid for Ukraine. Maybe those rose tinted spectacles need to be removed.
February 12, 2025 at 5:10 PM
Ukraine is getting nothing concrete. No security guarantees from the US of any value, no NATO membership, even it seems, no promise of future US aid for Ukraine. Maybe those rose tinted spectacles need to be removed.
Reposted by Paul Cormarie
'“The [UK defence] chiefs want a budget of 2.65 per cent of GDP but the Treasury is adamant that they should work to 2.3 per cent.” A second official confirmed the gap between the two sides, which amounts to about £10bn a year.' www.ft.com/content/fc9d...
Starmer summons UK defence chiefs in tussle over spending
Trump is pushing European governments to commit much higher funding to armed forces
www.ft.com
February 12, 2025 at 3:40 PM
'“The [UK defence] chiefs want a budget of 2.65 per cent of GDP but the Treasury is adamant that they should work to 2.3 per cent.” A second official confirmed the gap between the two sides, which amounts to about £10bn a year.' www.ft.com/content/fc9d...
Moving the goalposts confirmed: “Hegseth also echoed calls by President Donald Trump for allies to increase their defense spending to 5% of their GDP, instead of 2%, saying the latter is “not enough.”” amp.cnn.com/cnn/2025/02/...
Hegseth rules out NATO membership for Ukraine and says Europe must be responsible for country’s security | CNN Politics
US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said on Wednesday that the war between Ukraine and Russia “must end,” that Kyiv joining NATO is unrealistic, and that the US will no longer prioritize European and...
amp.cnn.com
February 12, 2025 at 3:10 PM
Moving the goalposts confirmed: “Hegseth also echoed calls by President Donald Trump for allies to increase their defense spending to 5% of their GDP, instead of 2%, saying the latter is “not enough.”” amp.cnn.com/cnn/2025/02/...
Reposted by Paul Cormarie
On AUKUS: "Hegseth said President Donald J. Trump is very familiar with the agreement and equally supportive of it." www.defense.gov/News/News-St...
Shared Challenges, AUKUS Partnership Top Topics as U.S., Australian Defense Leaders Meet f
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Australian Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Richard Marles discussed shared defense roles, security priorities, and the challenges and opportunities both
www.defense.gov
February 10, 2025 at 1:41 PM
On AUKUS: "Hegseth said President Donald J. Trump is very familiar with the agreement and equally supportive of it." www.defense.gov/News/News-St...
Come watch me, @lindedesma.bsky.social, Vhaire Gudgeon and Zoey Young talk alliances and strategy—I’ll be talking about 🇫🇷🇬🇧 cooperation vis a vis 🇨🇳
Thrilled to present my research on US nuclear security assurances at the @poni.csis.org 2025 Winter Conference next week! Looking forward to sharing the stage with Dave Allison, @paulcormarie.bsky.social, Vhaire Gudgeon, and Zoey Young!👇
📆February 11, 10am-4pm ET
Join us for PONI's 2025 Virtual Winter Conference! The theme of this conference is "Strengthening U.S. Alliances and Partnerships" with a keynote from @acwlapsley.bsky.social at NATO.
Register here:
Join us for PONI's 2025 Virtual Winter Conference! The theme of this conference is "Strengthening U.S. Alliances and Partnerships" with a keynote from @acwlapsley.bsky.social at NATO.
Register here:
February 6, 2025 at 1:36 PM
Come watch me, @lindedesma.bsky.social, Vhaire Gudgeon and Zoey Young talk alliances and strategy—I’ll be talking about 🇫🇷🇬🇧 cooperation vis a vis 🇨🇳
Reposted by Paul Cormarie
France24: French defence minister says first Mirage 2000 fighter jets delivered to Ukraine
www.france24.com/en/europe/20...
www.france24.com/en/europe/20...
French defence minister says first Mirage 2000 fighter jets delivered to Ukraine
The French air force has transferred the first of the promised Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets to Ukraine, Defence Minister Sébastien Lecornu said on Thursday. President Emmanuel Macron announced in June…
www.france24.com
February 6, 2025 at 12:03 PM
France24: French defence minister says first Mirage 2000 fighter jets delivered to Ukraine
www.france24.com/en/europe/20...
www.france24.com/en/europe/20...