Ankit Panda
@nktpnd.bsky.social
Stanton Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Author of ‘THE NEW NUCLEAR AGE’ (Polity) & ‘KIM JONG UN AND THE BOMB’ (Hurst/Oxford)
Subscribe to my newsletter (Nukesletter): https://panda.substack.com/
Subscribe to my newsletter (Nukesletter): https://panda.substack.com/
Pinned
Ankit Panda
@nktpnd.bsky.social
· May 21
Introducing Nukesletter
...a place for my ruminations on the new nuclear age.
panda.substack.com
Folks, I'm taking another stab at a newsletter: introducing Nukesletter (a revamp of my old newsletter from a couple years ago). Brief takes (longer form than what I'll share here) on my work, thinking, and interests. Take a look and subscribe here: panda.substack.com/p/introducin...
Reposted by Ankit Panda
On New START, there is precedent re legally nonbinding statements of compliance.
Reagan on the unratified SALT II, May '82:
"As for existing strategic arms agreements, we will refrain from actions which undercut them so long as the Soviet Union shows equal restraint." share.google/wIgYPIgnLatb...
Reagan on the unratified SALT II, May '82:
"As for existing strategic arms agreements, we will refrain from actions which undercut them so long as the Soviet Union shows equal restraint." share.google/wIgYPIgnLatb...
February 5, 2026 at 4:38 PM
On New START, there is precedent re legally nonbinding statements of compliance.
Reagan on the unratified SALT II, May '82:
"As for existing strategic arms agreements, we will refrain from actions which undercut them so long as the Soviet Union shows equal restraint." share.google/wIgYPIgnLatb...
Reagan on the unratified SALT II, May '82:
"As for existing strategic arms agreements, we will refrain from actions which undercut them so long as the Soviet Union shows equal restraint." share.google/wIgYPIgnLatb...
"The U.S. and Russia are closing in on a deal to continue to observe the expiring New START arms control treaty beyond its expiration on Thursday"
February 5, 2026 at 2:51 PM
"The U.S. and Russia are closing in on a deal to continue to observe the expiring New START arms control treaty beyond its expiration on Thursday"
New START, the last remaining U.S.-Russia treaty codifying limits on the size of their nuclear arsenals, expires at 23:59:59 CET today (17:59:59 EST).
February 4, 2026 at 3:12 PM
New START, the last remaining U.S.-Russia treaty codifying limits on the size of their nuclear arsenals, expires at 23:59:59 CET today (17:59:59 EST).
"I find that the US slide during Trump’s second term stands out as the most rapid in contemporary history. It outpaces the early stages of backsliding under Russia’s Vladimir Putin, Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Hungary’s Viktor Orbán..." www.ft.com/content/b474...
How steep is Trump’s democratic backsliding?
The erosion of established norms has been dramatic but institutions are holding up
www.ft.com
February 1, 2026 at 4:47 PM
"I find that the US slide during Trump’s second term stands out as the most rapid in contemporary history. It outpaces the early stages of backsliding under Russia’s Vladimir Putin, Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Hungary’s Viktor Orbán..." www.ft.com/content/b474...
Reposted by Ankit Panda
Some of the recently declassified images of the NRO's Cold War-era JUMPSEAT HEO signals intelligence satellite program. lnkd.in/eGym2xBj
January 29, 2026 at 6:49 PM
Some of the recently declassified images of the NRO's Cold War-era JUMPSEAT HEO signals intelligence satellite program. lnkd.in/eGym2xBj
Reposted by Ankit Panda
UPDATED: The Department of Energy has responded to our exclusive story on nuclear safety rules.
It says it anticipates making the rules public "later this year."
www.npr.org/2026/01/28/n...
It says it anticipates making the rules public "later this year."
www.npr.org/2026/01/28/n...
The Trump administration has secretly rewritten nuclear safety rules
The rewrite was done to speed up the construction of a new generation of nuclear reactors. Critics warn it could compromise safety and public trust.
www.npr.org
January 28, 2026 at 7:15 PM
UPDATED: The Department of Energy has responded to our exclusive story on nuclear safety rules.
It says it anticipates making the rules public "later this year."
www.npr.org/2026/01/28/n...
It says it anticipates making the rules public "later this year."
www.npr.org/2026/01/28/n...
Reposted by Ankit Panda
EXCLSUVIE: The Trump administration has secretly rewritten nuclear safety rules and shared them with the companies they're meant to regulate, without making the new rules publicly available.
We've obtained a copy of the new rules and here's what we found.
www.npr.org/2026/01/28/n...
We've obtained a copy of the new rules and here's what we found.
www.npr.org/2026/01/28/n...
The Trump administration has secretly rewritten nuclear safety rules
The rewrite was done to speed up the construction of a new generation of nuclear reactors. Critics warn it could compromise safety and public trust.
www.npr.org
January 28, 2026 at 10:23 AM
EXCLSUVIE: The Trump administration has secretly rewritten nuclear safety rules and shared them with the companies they're meant to regulate, without making the new rules publicly available.
We've obtained a copy of the new rules and here's what we found.
www.npr.org/2026/01/28/n...
We've obtained a copy of the new rules and here's what we found.
www.npr.org/2026/01/28/n...
Stochastic political violence on the rise.
Two Democratic members of Congress attacked in three days. Maxwell Frost was assaulted on Saturday, Ilan Omar tonight.
January 28, 2026 at 3:18 AM
Stochastic political violence on the rise.
This picture is actually quite concerning. In 2009-2010, the young KJU established his command bona fides by directing military action against South Korea. KJA appears to be getting set up for possibly a similar demonstration. Difficult to deter action that's motivated by internal regime dynamics.
January 27, 2026 at 10:42 PM
This picture is actually quite concerning. In 2009-2010, the young KJU established his command bona fides by directing military action against South Korea. KJA appears to be getting set up for possibly a similar demonstration. Difficult to deter action that's motivated by internal regime dynamics.
Quite the growth spurt for Kim Ju Ae.
January 27, 2026 at 10:07 PM
Quite the growth spurt for Kim Ju Ae.
Interesting: "Sweden has had very early discussions with France and the United Kingdom about possible nuclear weapons cooperation, Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson has revealed." breakingdefense.com/2026/01/swed...
Sweden weighs Franco-British nuclear weapons cooperation - Breaking Defense
"I say that when we joined NATO, we are fully involved in all discussions, including those in Europe revolving around nuclear weapons," Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said.
breakingdefense.com
January 27, 2026 at 9:43 PM
Interesting: "Sweden has had very early discussions with France and the United Kingdom about possible nuclear weapons cooperation, Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson has revealed." breakingdefense.com/2026/01/swed...
Reposted by Ankit Panda
"“Unfortunately because of the intel threat, we can only brief you at the classified level on what the architecture is,” Guetlein said." So the Pentagon can release unclassified document after document about the threat to our space assets but when it comes to GD, they go silent?
January 27, 2026 at 7:40 PM
"“Unfortunately because of the intel threat, we can only brief you at the classified level on what the architecture is,” Guetlein said." So the Pentagon can release unclassified document after document about the threat to our space assets but when it comes to GD, they go silent?
"Greenland should be treated as a precedent, not an aberration. The immediate threat has receded, but the underlying reality remains: Europe is dealing with an ally willing to test boundaries, probe weakness, and turn dependence into leverage." carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
The Greenland Episode Must Be a Lesson for Europe and NATO
They cannot return to the comforts of asymmetric reliance, dressed up as partnership.
carnegieendowment.org
January 27, 2026 at 6:08 PM
"Greenland should be treated as a precedent, not an aberration. The immediate threat has receded, but the underlying reality remains: Europe is dealing with an ally willing to test boundaries, probe weakness, and turn dependence into leverage." carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
Here @joshuakeating.bsky.social points out that, as of January 14, 2026, we've entered the longest period since July 16, 1945, without a full-scale nuclear test explosion (exceeding the time between the 1998 Pakistani test and North Korea's first test in 2006) www.vox.com/future-perfe...
The world just passed a surprisingly positive milestone on nuclear weapons
It’s been more than eight years since the last nuclear explosion. How long will the pause last?
www.vox.com
January 27, 2026 at 6:04 PM
Here @joshuakeating.bsky.social points out that, as of January 14, 2026, we've entered the longest period since July 16, 1945, without a full-scale nuclear test explosion (exceeding the time between the 1998 Pakistani test and North Korea's first test in 2006) www.vox.com/future-perfe...
U.S. government has lost more than 10,000 STEM Ph.D.s since Trump took office www.science.org/content/arti...
U.S. government has lost more than 10,000 STEM Ph.D.s since Trump took office
A Science analysis reveals how many were fired, retired, or quit across 14 agencies
www.science.org
January 27, 2026 at 5:34 PM
U.S. government has lost more than 10,000 STEM Ph.D.s since Trump took office www.science.org/content/arti...
"My hope – for the sake of stable US-China military-to-military relations and cross-Strait stability - was that Zhang Youxia would stay at the top of the CMC and remain Xi Jinping’s closest military advisor." chinadrew.substack.com/p/the-demise...
The demise of Zhang Youxia hits different
I was genuinely surprised by the announcement of Zhang Youxia's detention. I shouldn't have been. But this feels personal.
chinadrew.substack.com
January 27, 2026 at 4:38 AM
"My hope – for the sake of stable US-China military-to-military relations and cross-Strait stability - was that Zhang Youxia would stay at the top of the CMC and remain Xi Jinping’s closest military advisor." chinadrew.substack.com/p/the-demise...
"Germany’s plans to pour money into the sector will make it the third-biggest spender worldwide on space technology after the US and China"
Rheinmetall and OHB in talks over Starlink-style service for German army www.ft.com/content/3e81...
Rheinmetall and OHB in talks over Starlink-style service for German army
Tank producer negotiating with satellite company over bid for slice of country’s €35bn military space budget
www.ft.com
January 26, 2026 at 10:21 PM
"Germany’s plans to pour money into the sector will make it the third-biggest spender worldwide on space technology after the US and China"
Rheinmetall and OHB in talks over Starlink-style service for German army www.ft.com/content/3e81...
Rheinmetall and OHB in talks over Starlink-style service for German army
Tank producer negotiating with satellite company over bid for slice of country’s €35bn military space budget
www.ft.com
January 26, 2026 at 10:18 PM
Rheinmetall and OHB in talks over Starlink-style service for German army www.ft.com/content/3e81...
Donald Trump increases tariffs on South Korea to 25% www.ft.com/content/9982...
Donald Trump increases tariffs on South Korea to 25%
US president accuses Seoul of ‘not living up to’ agreement struck with Washington last year
www.ft.com
January 26, 2026 at 10:17 PM
Donald Trump increases tariffs on South Korea to 25% www.ft.com/content/9982...
What else would anyone expect Rutte, of all people, to say?
“If anyone thinks here… that the European Union or Europe as a whole can defend itself without the US, keep on dreaming,” Nato SecGen Mark Rutte told the European Parliament. “You can’t.”
“It will make things more complicated. I think Putin will love it. So think again.”
as.ft.com/r/25718b02-2...
“It will make things more complicated. I think Putin will love it. So think again.”
as.ft.com/r/25718b02-2...
Europe must stop ‘dreaming’ about defence without US, Rutte warns
[FREE TO READ] Nato chief says continent cannot afford to replace American security umbrella
as.ft.com
January 26, 2026 at 7:50 PM
What else would anyone expect Rutte, of all people, to say?
Reposted by Ankit Panda
"We don't want to commit significant conventional resources to defending you, but will still go nuclear on your behalf" doesn't sound very credible on its face?
The factions inside the Pentagon are very far apart on how they see things, but the one thing they all agree on is no large scale ground interventions. In a crisis, you might get a few battalions or a brigade on the ground but that's it. They expect allies and partners to do that part.
January 26, 2026 at 4:02 PM
"We don't want to commit significant conventional resources to defending you, but will still go nuclear on your behalf" doesn't sound very credible on its face?
I think this is right. Some allies (esp. in Europe) over-indexed on the mention of "conventional security" in Hegseth's speech to the Ukraine Contact Group in Brussels last February.
I think what people need to understand about the "critical but limited support" phrase is that it doesn't mean non-conventional, it means no or very few ground troops. Think precision-fires, command and control, intelligence, air support and air defense, but not divisions of armor and infantry.
The National Defense Strategy implies, but doesn't explicitly state, that the US will continue to provide nuclear deterrence to Europe, even as it reduces its conventional forces.
How credible is extended deterrence without major conventional skin in the game?
media.defense.gov/2026/Jan/23/...
How credible is extended deterrence without major conventional skin in the game?
media.defense.gov/2026/Jan/23/...
January 26, 2026 at 7:18 PM
I think this is right. Some allies (esp. in Europe) over-indexed on the mention of "conventional security" in Hegseth's speech to the Ukraine Contact Group in Brussels last February.
Reposted by Ankit Panda
"The emerging global system is one in which three nuclear-armed leaders, insulated from dissent, pursue risky gambits. The result will not be the relatively stable if tense competition that characterized the Cold War. It will be something more volatile..."
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
The Personalist Global Order
When individual whims drive great-power policy.
www.foreignaffairs.com
January 26, 2026 at 5:45 PM
"The emerging global system is one in which three nuclear-armed leaders, insulated from dissent, pursue risky gambits. The result will not be the relatively stable if tense competition that characterized the Cold War. It will be something more volatile..."
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...