Thord Are Iversen
@thelookout.bsky.social
Military and defense issues, as seen from NATOs northern flank.
Special interest: The Russian Navy.
Independent Defense Analyst, all analysis and opinions are my own
Special interest: The Russian Navy.
Independent Defense Analyst, all analysis and opinions are my own
Reposted by Thord Are Iversen
All the Nordics have been clear. A US attack on Greenland collapses NATO.
Some European states might try to sit on the fence but if they did, would this also bring the EU itself into question?
In either case, a crisis of this magnitude would only benefit Putin.
Some European states might try to sit on the fence but if they did, would this also bring the EU itself into question?
In either case, a crisis of this magnitude would only benefit Putin.
The Norwegian Minister of Foreign Affairs to Aftenposten yesterday:
"I assume that it actually won't happen", but:
"The idea of NATO will be broken if the US takes Greenland"
"It is difficult to see how the alliance will be able to withstand that"
www.aftenposten.no/norge/politi...
"I assume that it actually won't happen", but:
"The idea of NATO will be broken if the US takes Greenland"
"It is difficult to see how the alliance will be able to withstand that"
www.aftenposten.no/norge/politi...
– Ideen om Nato vil være brutt hvis USA tar Grønland
Espen Barth Eide advarer om Nato-brudd.
www.aftenposten.no
January 6, 2026 at 12:07 PM
All the Nordics have been clear. A US attack on Greenland collapses NATO.
Some European states might try to sit on the fence but if they did, would this also bring the EU itself into question?
In either case, a crisis of this magnitude would only benefit Putin.
Some European states might try to sit on the fence but if they did, would this also bring the EU itself into question?
In either case, a crisis of this magnitude would only benefit Putin.
The Norwegian Minister of Foreign Affairs to Aftenposten yesterday:
"I assume that it actually won't happen", but:
"The idea of NATO will be broken if the US takes Greenland"
"It is difficult to see how the alliance will be able to withstand that"
www.aftenposten.no/norge/politi...
"I assume that it actually won't happen", but:
"The idea of NATO will be broken if the US takes Greenland"
"It is difficult to see how the alliance will be able to withstand that"
www.aftenposten.no/norge/politi...
– Ideen om Nato vil være brutt hvis USA tar Grønland
Espen Barth Eide advarer om Nato-brudd.
www.aftenposten.no
January 6, 2026 at 11:08 AM
The Norwegian Minister of Foreign Affairs to Aftenposten yesterday:
"I assume that it actually won't happen", but:
"The idea of NATO will be broken if the US takes Greenland"
"It is difficult to see how the alliance will be able to withstand that"
www.aftenposten.no/norge/politi...
"I assume that it actually won't happen", but:
"The idea of NATO will be broken if the US takes Greenland"
"It is difficult to see how the alliance will be able to withstand that"
www.aftenposten.no/norge/politi...
Reposted by Thord Are Iversen
🔺OOA activity - Breaking!
Russian Navy Northern Fleet Pr.1155 class BPK-619 “Severomorsk” highly likely departed the Baltic Sea, 3 January 2026.
⚠️Unit escorting Russian weapon transport COIs, “MV Sparta IV” & “MYS Zhelaniya” which are likely heading for the Levant region.
Russian Navy Northern Fleet Pr.1155 class BPK-619 “Severomorsk” highly likely departed the Baltic Sea, 3 January 2026.
⚠️Unit escorting Russian weapon transport COIs, “MV Sparta IV” & “MYS Zhelaniya” which are likely heading for the Levant region.
January 3, 2026 at 8:08 AM
🔺OOA activity - Breaking!
Russian Navy Northern Fleet Pr.1155 class BPK-619 “Severomorsk” highly likely departed the Baltic Sea, 3 January 2026.
⚠️Unit escorting Russian weapon transport COIs, “MV Sparta IV” & “MYS Zhelaniya” which are likely heading for the Levant region.
Russian Navy Northern Fleet Pr.1155 class BPK-619 “Severomorsk” highly likely departed the Baltic Sea, 3 January 2026.
⚠️Unit escorting Russian weapon transport COIs, “MV Sparta IV” & “MYS Zhelaniya” which are likely heading for the Levant region.
I think Norwegian PM Jonas Gahr Støre gave a good New Years speech this evening.
A few excerpts here from the English version, link below:
A few excerpts here from the English version, link below:
January 1, 2026 at 8:26 PM
I think Norwegian PM Jonas Gahr Støre gave a good New Years speech this evening.
A few excerpts here from the English version, link below:
A few excerpts here from the English version, link below:
Still a couple of hours to go on my end but:
Happy New Year everyone!
Happy New Year everyone!
December 31, 2025 at 8:23 PM
Still a couple of hours to go on my end but:
Happy New Year everyone!
Happy New Year everyone!
Reposted by Thord Are Iversen
The US State Department has approved a possible Foreign Military Sale to Denmark of 3 P-8A Poseidon Multi-Mission Maritime Patrol & Reconnaissance Aircraft with Indirect Fire Protection Capability & related equipment for an estimated cost of up to 1.8bn USD (11.4bn DKK)
www.dsca.mil/Press-Media/...
www.dsca.mil/Press-Media/...
🇩🇰Denmark plans to acquire Boing P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircrafts according to the Danish Minister of Defence to TV2. The planes will be used in the North Atlantic and will cost a “double digit” amount of bn DKK (1.3+bn EUR).
December 30, 2025 at 9:52 AM
The US State Department has approved a possible Foreign Military Sale to Denmark of 3 P-8A Poseidon Multi-Mission Maritime Patrol & Reconnaissance Aircraft with Indirect Fire Protection Capability & related equipment for an estimated cost of up to 1.8bn USD (11.4bn DKK)
www.dsca.mil/Press-Media/...
www.dsca.mil/Press-Media/...
Reposted by Thord Are Iversen
🔺OOA activity - Heads up!
Russian Navy Northern Fleet Pr.22350 class SKR-461 “Admiral Kasatanov” may conduct an OOA deployment late 2025/early 2026, possibly with Pr.23130 tanker “Akademik Pashin”
⚠️Unit could relieve SKR-532 “Boikiy” in the Mediterranean Sea & may have already departed homeport.
Russian Navy Northern Fleet Pr.22350 class SKR-461 “Admiral Kasatanov” may conduct an OOA deployment late 2025/early 2026, possibly with Pr.23130 tanker “Akademik Pashin”
⚠️Unit could relieve SKR-532 “Boikiy” in the Mediterranean Sea & may have already departed homeport.
December 26, 2025 at 9:02 AM
🔺OOA activity - Heads up!
Russian Navy Northern Fleet Pr.22350 class SKR-461 “Admiral Kasatanov” may conduct an OOA deployment late 2025/early 2026, possibly with Pr.23130 tanker “Akademik Pashin”
⚠️Unit could relieve SKR-532 “Boikiy” in the Mediterranean Sea & may have already departed homeport.
Russian Navy Northern Fleet Pr.22350 class SKR-461 “Admiral Kasatanov” may conduct an OOA deployment late 2025/early 2026, possibly with Pr.23130 tanker “Akademik Pashin”
⚠️Unit could relieve SKR-532 “Boikiy” in the Mediterranean Sea & may have already departed homeport.
Reposted by Thord Are Iversen
Today is the big day in Norway so:
Merry Christmas folks, wherever you might be!
Despite the current state of the world, I hope you all manage to catch some rest over this holiday season.
Merry Christmas folks, wherever you might be!
Despite the current state of the world, I hope you all manage to catch some rest over this holiday season.
December 24, 2025 at 12:09 PM
Today is the big day in Norway so:
Merry Christmas folks, wherever you might be!
Despite the current state of the world, I hope you all manage to catch some rest over this holiday season.
Merry Christmas folks, wherever you might be!
Despite the current state of the world, I hope you all manage to catch some rest over this holiday season.
Today is the big day in Norway so:
Merry Christmas folks, wherever you might be!
Despite the current state of the world, I hope you all manage to catch some rest over this holiday season.
Merry Christmas folks, wherever you might be!
Despite the current state of the world, I hope you all manage to catch some rest over this holiday season.
December 24, 2025 at 12:09 PM
Today is the big day in Norway so:
Merry Christmas folks, wherever you might be!
Despite the current state of the world, I hope you all manage to catch some rest over this holiday season.
Merry Christmas folks, wherever you might be!
Despite the current state of the world, I hope you all manage to catch some rest over this holiday season.
Reposted by Thord Are Iversen
🔺Baltic Sea activity
Danish Navy OPV P523 likely conducted daylight close surveillance I&W mission against Russian Navy Pr.1155 Udaloy class BPK-619 “Severomorsk” 21 December 2024.
⚠️ Realistic possibility BPK-619 relocating via Great Belt to observe “Ascalon” incident in north Øresund.
Danish Navy OPV P523 likely conducted daylight close surveillance I&W mission against Russian Navy Pr.1155 Udaloy class BPK-619 “Severomorsk” 21 December 2024.
⚠️ Realistic possibility BPK-619 relocating via Great Belt to observe “Ascalon” incident in north Øresund.
December 21, 2025 at 4:17 PM
🔺Baltic Sea activity
Danish Navy OPV P523 likely conducted daylight close surveillance I&W mission against Russian Navy Pr.1155 Udaloy class BPK-619 “Severomorsk” 21 December 2024.
⚠️ Realistic possibility BPK-619 relocating via Great Belt to observe “Ascalon” incident in north Øresund.
Danish Navy OPV P523 likely conducted daylight close surveillance I&W mission against Russian Navy Pr.1155 Udaloy class BPK-619 “Severomorsk” 21 December 2024.
⚠️ Realistic possibility BPK-619 relocating via Great Belt to observe “Ascalon” incident in north Øresund.
We need a grounded, sober debate about the risk of, the pathways to, and how a wider war could look.
Due to the peace dividend and the war risk not being zero, many European countries have to rearm with a whole of society approach quickly.
Combining both right is difficult.
Due to the peace dividend and the war risk not being zero, many European countries have to rearm with a whole of society approach quickly.
Combining both right is difficult.
My latest @financialtimes.com on the perils of believing a Russian war with Europe is becoming inevitable
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Europe risks a self-fulfilling prophecy over the threat from Russia
Leaders on the continent should be wary of beating the drums of war too loudly
giftarticle.ft.com
December 20, 2025 at 3:48 PM
We need a grounded, sober debate about the risk of, the pathways to, and how a wider war could look.
Due to the peace dividend and the war risk not being zero, many European countries have to rearm with a whole of society approach quickly.
Combining both right is difficult.
Due to the peace dividend and the war risk not being zero, many European countries have to rearm with a whole of society approach quickly.
Combining both right is difficult.
This looks like a FSB Coast Guard Rubin-class (Project 22460) patrol ship.
Believe there are 6 of them in the Black Sea.
Believe there are 6 of them in the Black Sea.
December 19, 2025 at 6:22 PM
This looks like a FSB Coast Guard Rubin-class (Project 22460) patrol ship.
Believe there are 6 of them in the Black Sea.
Believe there are 6 of them in the Black Sea.
Sentinel-1 SAR imagery of Novorossiyk, December 15th and today, the 19th.
At 0340Z this morning they seem to be in the process of moving one of the barges used at the harbour entrance. Two smaller ships are present.
A channel without a barge across is clearly visible.
At 0340Z this morning they seem to be in the process of moving one of the barges used at the harbour entrance. Two smaller ships are present.
A channel without a barge across is clearly visible.
December 19, 2025 at 1:23 PM
Sentinel-1 SAR imagery of Novorossiyk, December 15th and today, the 19th.
At 0340Z this morning they seem to be in the process of moving one of the barges used at the harbour entrance. Two smaller ships are present.
A channel without a barge across is clearly visible.
At 0340Z this morning they seem to be in the process of moving one of the barges used at the harbour entrance. Two smaller ships are present.
A channel without a barge across is clearly visible.
Tanker war, now also in the Mediterranean:
Ukraine's SBU struck shadow fleet tanker Qendil in neutral Mediterranean waters over 2,000 km from Ukraine for the first time, causing critical damage rendering it inoperable, sources tell RBC Ukraine.
December 19, 2025 at 11:37 AM
Tanker war, now also in the Mediterranean:
Despite deteriorating relations and sanctions against two fishing companies, Norway and Russia has signed a Fisheries agreement for 2026.
These agreements go back to 1975 and is generally considered a success story in joint fish stocks management.
www.regjeringen.no/en/whats-new...
These agreements go back to 1975 and is generally considered a success story in joint fish stocks management.
www.regjeringen.no/en/whats-new...
Norwegian-Russian Fisheries Agreement for 2026
Norway and Russia have reached a fisheries arrangement for 2026.
www.regjeringen.no
December 18, 2025 at 5:10 PM
Despite deteriorating relations and sanctions against two fishing companies, Norway and Russia has signed a Fisheries agreement for 2026.
These agreements go back to 1975 and is generally considered a success story in joint fish stocks management.
www.regjeringen.no/en/whats-new...
These agreements go back to 1975 and is generally considered a success story in joint fish stocks management.
www.regjeringen.no/en/whats-new...
The barges used to reinforce the net/boom defenses in Novorossiysk aren't new and not sunken either.
This is a long time practice. An example from September 4th last year here.
The barges are highly likely moved by tugs and moored inside the base when not in position.
This is a long time practice. An example from September 4th last year here.
The barges are highly likely moved by tugs and moored inside the base when not in position.
December 17, 2025 at 4:47 PM
The barges used to reinforce the net/boom defenses in Novorossiysk aren't new and not sunken either.
This is a long time practice. An example from September 4th last year here.
The barges are highly likely moved by tugs and moored inside the base when not in position.
This is a long time practice. An example from September 4th last year here.
The barges are highly likely moved by tugs and moored inside the base when not in position.
New Norwegian package for Ukraine, 3.2 Bn NOK / 270 mil EUR, announced today.
Will include munitions for F-16s, what sounds like APKWS or equivalent and interestingly, in excess of 500 mil NOK for missiles for S-300.
www.regjeringen.no/no/aktuelt/n...
Will include munitions for F-16s, what sounds like APKWS or equivalent and interestingly, in excess of 500 mil NOK for missiles for S-300.
www.regjeringen.no/no/aktuelt/n...
Norge kjøper viktig F-16-ammunisjon og luftvern til Ukraina
Regjeringen finansierer ammunisjon til F-16jagerfly, laserstyrte missiler som kan brukes av F-16 eller luftvern på bakken og langtrekkende missiler for om lag 3,2 milliarder kroner gjennom JUMPSTART-o...
www.regjeringen.no
December 17, 2025 at 10:43 AM
New Norwegian package for Ukraine, 3.2 Bn NOK / 270 mil EUR, announced today.
Will include munitions for F-16s, what sounds like APKWS or equivalent and interestingly, in excess of 500 mil NOK for missiles for S-300.
www.regjeringen.no/no/aktuelt/n...
Will include munitions for F-16s, what sounds like APKWS or equivalent and interestingly, in excess of 500 mil NOK for missiles for S-300.
www.regjeringen.no/no/aktuelt/n...
Since it's making the rounds:
There are no indications of a larger Russian military presence in Belarus, nor of any buildup in progress either.
There are no indications of a larger Russian military presence in Belarus, nor of any buildup in progress either.
December 16, 2025 at 6:19 PM
Since it's making the rounds:
There are no indications of a larger Russian military presence in Belarus, nor of any buildup in progress either.
There are no indications of a larger Russian military presence in Belarus, nor of any buildup in progress either.
We have footage but not of the stern.
Best case scenario but still unconfirmed (important to remember), there is damage to the screw, shaft and rudders, but that's all repairable.
There are floating docks in Novorossiysk.
Best case scenario but still unconfirmed (important to remember), there is damage to the screw, shaft and rudders, but that's all repairable.
There are floating docks in Novorossiysk.
December 16, 2025 at 1:04 PM
We have footage but not of the stern.
Best case scenario but still unconfirmed (important to remember), there is damage to the screw, shaft and rudders, but that's all repairable.
There are floating docks in Novorossiysk.
Best case scenario but still unconfirmed (important to remember), there is damage to the screw, shaft and rudders, but that's all repairable.
There are floating docks in Novorossiysk.
Reposted by Thord Are Iversen
🔺Submarine construction - Update
NEWCON Lada T677 class SSK B-587 "Vilikiye-Luki" (H03) was commissioned into the Russian Navy at Admiralty shipyard, 16 December 2025.
⚠️Unit will likely conduct unit certification training in the Baltic Sea, next 6-8 months before becoming operational.
NEWCON Lada T677 class SSK B-587 "Vilikiye-Luki" (H03) was commissioned into the Russian Navy at Admiralty shipyard, 16 December 2025.
⚠️Unit will likely conduct unit certification training in the Baltic Sea, next 6-8 months before becoming operational.
December 16, 2025 at 12:20 PM
🔺Submarine construction - Update
NEWCON Lada T677 class SSK B-587 "Vilikiye-Luki" (H03) was commissioned into the Russian Navy at Admiralty shipyard, 16 December 2025.
⚠️Unit will likely conduct unit certification training in the Baltic Sea, next 6-8 months before becoming operational.
NEWCON Lada T677 class SSK B-587 "Vilikiye-Luki" (H03) was commissioned into the Russian Navy at Admiralty shipyard, 16 December 2025.
⚠️Unit will likely conduct unit certification training in the Baltic Sea, next 6-8 months before becoming operational.
Since it's in the wind:
During Operazione EA 3, December 19th 1941, that severely damaged two battleships and a tanker, the 3 Italian manned torpedoes slipped through the main boom at Alexandria when it was opened for arriving RN destroyers.
During Operazione EA 3, December 19th 1941, that severely damaged two battleships and a tanker, the 3 Italian manned torpedoes slipped through the main boom at Alexandria when it was opened for arriving RN destroyers.
December 16, 2025 at 11:36 AM
Since it's in the wind:
During Operazione EA 3, December 19th 1941, that severely damaged two battleships and a tanker, the 3 Italian manned torpedoes slipped through the main boom at Alexandria when it was opened for arriving RN destroyers.
During Operazione EA 3, December 19th 1941, that severely damaged two battleships and a tanker, the 3 Italian manned torpedoes slipped through the main boom at Alexandria when it was opened for arriving RN destroyers.
Reposted by Thord Are Iversen
🔺Baltic Sea activity - Breaking!
Russian Navy Northern Fleet Pr.1155 Udaloy class destroyer, BPK-626 “Vice Admiral Kulakov” VISID departed the Baltic Sea, 16 December 2025.
⚠️ Having been relieved by BPK-619 "Severomorsk", BPK-626 may return to homeport Severomorsk.
Russian Navy Northern Fleet Pr.1155 Udaloy class destroyer, BPK-626 “Vice Admiral Kulakov” VISID departed the Baltic Sea, 16 December 2025.
⚠️ Having been relieved by BPK-619 "Severomorsk", BPK-626 may return to homeport Severomorsk.
December 16, 2025 at 11:08 AM
🔺Baltic Sea activity - Breaking!
Russian Navy Northern Fleet Pr.1155 Udaloy class destroyer, BPK-626 “Vice Admiral Kulakov” VISID departed the Baltic Sea, 16 December 2025.
⚠️ Having been relieved by BPK-619 "Severomorsk", BPK-626 may return to homeport Severomorsk.
Russian Navy Northern Fleet Pr.1155 Udaloy class destroyer, BPK-626 “Vice Admiral Kulakov” VISID departed the Baltic Sea, 16 December 2025.
⚠️ Having been relieved by BPK-619 "Severomorsk", BPK-626 may return to homeport Severomorsk.
Reposted by Thord Are Iversen
In early December Russia released NOTAMs for the 3-7 December window covering Plesetsk and Kura. By all indications it was a Yars launch. The test was either cancelled or postponed - NOTAMs were cancelled on 2 December (h/t
@thelookout.bsky.social) russianforces.org/blog/2025/12...
@thelookout.bsky.social) russianforces.org/blog/2025/12...
December 16, 2025 at 10:46 AM
In early December Russia released NOTAMs for the 3-7 December window covering Plesetsk and Kura. By all indications it was a Yars launch. The test was either cancelled or postponed - NOTAMs were cancelled on 2 December (h/t
@thelookout.bsky.social) russianforces.org/blog/2025/12...
@thelookout.bsky.social) russianforces.org/blog/2025/12...
As the splash has settled down:
While yesterday's attack on Novorossiysk was impressive regardless of the actual damage inflicted, new capabilities are most effective when first employed.
It will trigger Russian adaptation, making new similar attacks more difficult.
While yesterday's attack on Novorossiysk was impressive regardless of the actual damage inflicted, new capabilities are most effective when first employed.
It will trigger Russian adaptation, making new similar attacks more difficult.
December 16, 2025 at 10:44 AM
As the splash has settled down:
While yesterday's attack on Novorossiysk was impressive regardless of the actual damage inflicted, new capabilities are most effective when first employed.
It will trigger Russian adaptation, making new similar attacks more difficult.
While yesterday's attack on Novorossiysk was impressive regardless of the actual damage inflicted, new capabilities are most effective when first employed.
It will trigger Russian adaptation, making new similar attacks more difficult.