Thord Are Iversen
@thelookout.bsky.social
Military and defense issues, as seen from NATOs northern flank.
Special interest: The Russian Navy.
Independent Defense Analyst, all analysis and opinions are my own
Special interest: The Russian Navy.
Independent Defense Analyst, all analysis and opinions are my own
Data: Today's spoofed contact and the actual AIS track from 2021.
PNS Zulfiqar did transmit on AIS outbound from St Petersburg.
PNS Zulfiqar did transmit on AIS outbound from St Petersburg.
November 2, 2025 at 10:16 PM
Data: Today's spoofed contact and the actual AIS track from 2021.
PNS Zulfiqar did transmit on AIS outbound from St Petersburg.
PNS Zulfiqar did transmit on AIS outbound from St Petersburg.
3/5
Why did I look here?
I've noticed something similar in this part of the Kara Sea before, in June 2023, and think there is at least a realistic possibility that this was Poseidon related too.
For yesterday, there were no apparent special activity in the White Sea.
Why did I look here?
I've noticed something similar in this part of the Kara Sea before, in June 2023, and think there is at least a realistic possibility that this was Poseidon related too.
For yesterday, there were no apparent special activity in the White Sea.
October 29, 2025 at 3:04 PM
3/5
Why did I look here?
I've noticed something similar in this part of the Kara Sea before, in June 2023, and think there is at least a realistic possibility that this was Poseidon related too.
For yesterday, there were no apparent special activity in the White Sea.
Why did I look here?
I've noticed something similar in this part of the Kara Sea before, in June 2023, and think there is at least a realistic possibility that this was Poseidon related too.
For yesterday, there were no apparent special activity in the White Sea.
2/5
Looking through Sentinel-1 SAR imagery, as far as I can determine, these ships had arrived by the 27th and we're still in the area at 0307z today, but then in different positions.
Don't think anyone was on AIS but this still needs investigating.
Looking through Sentinel-1 SAR imagery, as far as I can determine, these ships had arrived by the 27th and we're still in the area at 0307z today, but then in different positions.
Don't think anyone was on AIS but this still needs investigating.
October 29, 2025 at 3:04 PM
2/5
Looking through Sentinel-1 SAR imagery, as far as I can determine, these ships had arrived by the 27th and we're still in the area at 0307z today, but then in different positions.
Don't think anyone was on AIS but this still needs investigating.
Looking through Sentinel-1 SAR imagery, as far as I can determine, these ships had arrived by the 27th and we're still in the area at 0307z today, but then in different positions.
Don't think anyone was on AIS but this still needs investigating.
1/5
Kara Sea Activity
Caveat: Preliminary findings.
On October 28th, when the Poseidon test was conducted according to Putin, there were 6 unidentified ships off the eastern coast of Novaya Zemlya, Kara Sea.
No NOTAM, no PRIP, but well off the path for any civilian traffic.
Kara Sea Activity
Caveat: Preliminary findings.
On October 28th, when the Poseidon test was conducted according to Putin, there were 6 unidentified ships off the eastern coast of Novaya Zemlya, Kara Sea.
No NOTAM, no PRIP, but well off the path for any civilian traffic.
October 29, 2025 at 3:04 PM
1/5
Kara Sea Activity
Caveat: Preliminary findings.
On October 28th, when the Poseidon test was conducted according to Putin, there were 6 unidentified ships off the eastern coast of Novaya Zemlya, Kara Sea.
No NOTAM, no PRIP, but well off the path for any civilian traffic.
Kara Sea Activity
Caveat: Preliminary findings.
On October 28th, when the Poseidon test was conducted according to Putin, there were 6 unidentified ships off the eastern coast of Novaya Zemlya, Kara Sea.
No NOTAM, no PRIP, but well off the path for any civilian traffic.
Does he limp too?
*Sorry, can't help it.
*Sorry, can't help it.
October 28, 2025 at 7:45 PM
Does he limp too?
*Sorry, can't help it.
*Sorry, can't help it.
The Baltic Fleet Ropucha-class LST Aleksandr Shabalin gets some attention and the ship is operating in a rather strange way for being a Ropucha
But, before making bold statemens, one must recognize the peculiarities of the territorial water limits between Rügen and Skagen
But, before making bold statemens, one must recognize the peculiarities of the territorial water limits between Rügen and Skagen
October 24, 2025 at 1:26 PM
The Baltic Fleet Ropucha-class LST Aleksandr Shabalin gets some attention and the ship is operating in a rather strange way for being a Ropucha
But, before making bold statemens, one must recognize the peculiarities of the territorial water limits between Rügen and Skagen
But, before making bold statemens, one must recognize the peculiarities of the territorial water limits between Rügen and Skagen
From the Royal Norwegian Air Force Facebook page:
CAOC Bodø led its first QRA mission today, two Norwegian F-35s identifying a IL-20 Coot A north of Finnmark.
"A QRA scramble is routine but a major milestone for CAOC Bodø. The IL-20 displayed safe and professional behavior".
CAOC Bodø led its first QRA mission today, two Norwegian F-35s identifying a IL-20 Coot A north of Finnmark.
"A QRA scramble is routine but a major milestone for CAOC Bodø. The IL-20 displayed safe and professional behavior".
October 15, 2025 at 2:41 PM
From the Royal Norwegian Air Force Facebook page:
CAOC Bodø led its first QRA mission today, two Norwegian F-35s identifying a IL-20 Coot A north of Finnmark.
"A QRA scramble is routine but a major milestone for CAOC Bodø. The IL-20 displayed safe and professional behavior".
CAOC Bodø led its first QRA mission today, two Norwegian F-35s identifying a IL-20 Coot A north of Finnmark.
"A QRA scramble is routine but a major milestone for CAOC Bodø. The IL-20 displayed safe and professional behavior".
This is a step up from last year, which also was notable, and puts Norway on the same page as the other Nordic countries.
www.forsvaretsforum.no/atomvapen-ja...
www.forsvaretsforum.no/atomvapen-ja...
October 13, 2025 at 3:42 PM
This is a step up from last year, which also was notable, and puts Norway on the same page as the other Nordic countries.
www.forsvaretsforum.no/atomvapen-ja...
www.forsvaretsforum.no/atomvapen-ja...
Looks like we have the first indicator for Grom, between the 20th and 24th.
This PRIP is consistent with SS-N-23 from the Barents Sea to Kura.
H/T La_souris_DA on the other site.
This PRIP is consistent with SS-N-23 from the Barents Sea to Kura.
H/T La_souris_DA on the other site.
October 11, 2025 at 11:10 AM
Looks like we have the first indicator for Grom, between the 20th and 24th.
This PRIP is consistent with SS-N-23 from the Barents Sea to Kura.
H/T La_souris_DA on the other site.
This PRIP is consistent with SS-N-23 from the Barents Sea to Kura.
H/T La_souris_DA on the other site.
2/3
Provocations: Perhaps old-fashioned but still a good term.
Provocations: Perhaps old-fashioned but still a good term.
October 3, 2025 at 7:52 AM
2/3
Provocations: Perhaps old-fashioned but still a good term.
Provocations: Perhaps old-fashioned but still a good term.
1/3
The Danish Defense Intelligence Service has published a new assessment today, on the "hybrid threat to Denmark".
It's 5 pages so here is a short thread with screenshots.
The Danish Defense Intelligence Service has published a new assessment today, on the "hybrid threat to Denmark".
It's 5 pages so here is a short thread with screenshots.
October 3, 2025 at 7:52 AM
1/3
The Danish Defense Intelligence Service has published a new assessment today, on the "hybrid threat to Denmark".
It's 5 pages so here is a short thread with screenshots.
The Danish Defense Intelligence Service has published a new assessment today, on the "hybrid threat to Denmark".
It's 5 pages so here is a short thread with screenshots.
In a fresh press-release, the Norwegian government says that Russian aircraft have violated Norwegian airspace three times this year.
Even during the Cold War, Soviet airspace violations were rare, and usually involved aircraft coming from Cuba, running low on fuel.
Even during the Cold War, Soviet airspace violations were rare, and usually involved aircraft coming from Cuba, running low on fuel.
September 23, 2025 at 10:52 AM
In a fresh press-release, the Norwegian government says that Russian aircraft have violated Norwegian airspace three times this year.
Even during the Cold War, Soviet airspace violations were rare, and usually involved aircraft coming from Cuba, running low on fuel.
Even during the Cold War, Soviet airspace violations were rare, and usually involved aircraft coming from Cuba, running low on fuel.
Since it's Battle of Britain Day, here's a list of the Norwegian tankers delivering cargo to the British Isles between July 10th and October 31st 1940.
Claims vary, but for Aug and Sep, up to 50% of the UK's petroleum products came on these ships.
Source: Krigsseilerregisteret
Claims vary, but for Aug and Sep, up to 50% of the UK's petroleum products came on these ships.
Source: Krigsseilerregisteret
September 15, 2025 at 6:34 PM
Since it's Battle of Britain Day, here's a list of the Norwegian tankers delivering cargo to the British Isles between July 10th and October 31st 1940.
Claims vary, but for Aug and Sep, up to 50% of the UK's petroleum products came on these ships.
Source: Krigsseilerregisteret
Claims vary, but for Aug and Sep, up to 50% of the UK's petroleum products came on these ships.
Source: Krigsseilerregisteret
We need some more carrier photos.
Photos: First two Henrik S. Andersen, last one Johannes Bærhaugen, both Forsvaret
Photos: First two Henrik S. Andersen, last one Johannes Bærhaugen, both Forsvaret
September 12, 2025 at 10:12 AM
We need some more carrier photos.
Photos: First two Henrik S. Andersen, last one Johannes Bærhaugen, both Forsvaret
Photos: First two Henrik S. Andersen, last one Johannes Bærhaugen, both Forsvaret
Zapad is underway in the Northern Fleet:
September 12, 2025 at 9:02 AM
Zapad is underway in the Northern Fleet:
USS Gerald R Ford inbound to Oslo earlier today, seen from Oscarsborg Fortress.
Photo: Henrik S. Andersen / Forsvaret
Photo: Henrik S. Andersen / Forsvaret
September 12, 2025 at 8:47 AM
USS Gerald R Ford inbound to Oslo earlier today, seen from Oscarsborg Fortress.
Photo: Henrik S. Andersen / Forsvaret
Photo: Henrik S. Andersen / Forsvaret
This looks a bit messy but here are the current southern Barents Sea NOTAM areas for the Zapad period. The timings are not identical, they vary within the period.
Looks like we will see a good mix of artillery-, SAM-, anti-ship missile- and land attack live firings.
Looks like we will see a good mix of artillery-, SAM-, anti-ship missile- and land attack live firings.
September 11, 2025 at 9:32 AM
This looks a bit messy but here are the current southern Barents Sea NOTAM areas for the Zapad period. The timings are not identical, they vary within the period.
Looks like we will see a good mix of artillery-, SAM-, anti-ship missile- and land attack live firings.
Looks like we will see a good mix of artillery-, SAM-, anti-ship missile- and land attack live firings.
The MPSV07's aren't Black Sea Fleet ships but civilian and belong to the Marine Rescue Service, which among other things also operate Russia's Marine Rescue Coordination Centers (MRCCs).
Ship in question likely Spasatel Ilyin as Spasatel Demidov is in the Barents Sea.
Ship in question likely Spasatel Ilyin as Spasatel Demidov is in the Barents Sea.
September 11, 2025 at 7:32 AM
The MPSV07's aren't Black Sea Fleet ships but civilian and belong to the Marine Rescue Service, which among other things also operate Russia's Marine Rescue Coordination Centers (MRCCs).
Ship in question likely Spasatel Ilyin as Spasatel Demidov is in the Barents Sea.
Ship in question likely Spasatel Ilyin as Spasatel Demidov is in the Barents Sea.
Here we likely have the first Zapad NOTAM/PRIP for the Barents Sea.
Prob SS-C-5 from the coastal missile detachment at Franz Josefs Land.
Prob SS-C-5 from the coastal missile detachment at Franz Josefs Land.
September 8, 2025 at 1:14 PM
Here we likely have the first Zapad NOTAM/PRIP for the Barents Sea.
Prob SS-C-5 from the coastal missile detachment at Franz Josefs Land.
Prob SS-C-5 from the coastal missile detachment at Franz Josefs Land.
From the official Royal Norwegian Navy Facebook page:
Today the Norwegian and British Ministers for Defense signed the agreement that formally established the strategic partnership on new frigates.
Key feature: A fully integrated frigate fleet with the Royal Navy.
Today the Norwegian and British Ministers for Defense signed the agreement that formally established the strategic partnership on new frigates.
Key feature: A fully integrated frigate fleet with the Royal Navy.
September 4, 2025 at 2:53 PM
From the official Royal Norwegian Navy Facebook page:
Today the Norwegian and British Ministers for Defense signed the agreement that formally established the strategic partnership on new frigates.
Key feature: A fully integrated frigate fleet with the Royal Navy.
Today the Norwegian and British Ministers for Defense signed the agreement that formally established the strategic partnership on new frigates.
Key feature: A fully integrated frigate fleet with the Royal Navy.
Burevestnik related activity likely continues today, with the ships supporting the activity in test positions (exclude the one in Matochkin Shar).
Sentinel-2 caught a contrail over the northern island, prob a support aircraft. Wind today has been from the south.
FR24 picture for reference.
Sentinel-2 caught a contrail over the northern island, prob a support aircraft. Wind today has been from the south.
FR24 picture for reference.
September 3, 2025 at 4:46 PM
Burevestnik related activity likely continues today, with the ships supporting the activity in test positions (exclude the one in Matochkin Shar).
Sentinel-2 caught a contrail over the northern island, prob a support aircraft. Wind today has been from the south.
FR24 picture for reference.
Sentinel-2 caught a contrail over the northern island, prob a support aircraft. Wind today has been from the south.
FR24 picture for reference.
Sentinel-2 caught the Kirov-class cruiser Admiral Nakhimov underway on own power in the central White Sea earlier today, August 30th.
After an unexpected start of the trials, being towed and at anchor, seems they are progressing more like expected now.
After an unexpected start of the trials, being towed and at anchor, seems they are progressing more like expected now.
August 30, 2025 at 6:16 PM
Sentinel-2 caught the Kirov-class cruiser Admiral Nakhimov underway on own power in the central White Sea earlier today, August 30th.
After an unexpected start of the trials, being towed and at anchor, seems they are progressing more like expected now.
After an unexpected start of the trials, being towed and at anchor, seems they are progressing more like expected now.
Admiral Nakhimov's sea trials are underway.
Seems there was something to all these rumors we've been getting after all.
Expect that initially there will be a series of engineering trials in the Dvina Bay area.
paluba.media/news/198961
Seems there was something to all these rumors we've been getting after all.
Expect that initially there will be a series of engineering trials in the Dvina Bay area.
paluba.media/news/198961
August 18, 2025 at 2:34 PM
Admiral Nakhimov's sea trials are underway.
Seems there was something to all these rumors we've been getting after all.
Expect that initially there will be a series of engineering trials in the Dvina Bay area.
paluba.media/news/198961
Seems there was something to all these rumors we've been getting after all.
Expect that initially there will be a series of engineering trials in the Dvina Bay area.
paluba.media/news/198961
The Russian MFA marked the occasion too:
"With its provocative actions, Oslo is creating an atmosphere of confrontation around the archipelago, which is fraught with a rise in confrontation in high latitudes."
mid.ru/ru/foreign_p...
"With its provocative actions, Oslo is creating an atmosphere of confrontation around the archipelago, which is fraught with a rise in confrontation in high latitudes."
mid.ru/ru/foreign_p...
August 14, 2025 at 5:07 PM
The Russian MFA marked the occasion too:
"With its provocative actions, Oslo is creating an atmosphere of confrontation around the archipelago, which is fraught with a rise in confrontation in high latitudes."
mid.ru/ru/foreign_p...
"With its provocative actions, Oslo is creating an atmosphere of confrontation around the archipelago, which is fraught with a rise in confrontation in high latitudes."
mid.ru/ru/foreign_p...