Matthew Ford
@warmatters.bsky.social
Saarf-Londoner. Cat Dad. Associate Professor in War Studies at the Swedish Defence University. PhD from KCL. Associate, IWM Institute. Senior fellow at Global & National Security Institute, University of South Florida. ex-West Point fellow. FRHistS.
Pinned
Matthew Ford
@warmatters.bsky.social
· Sep 16
Yesterday I was number 2 on the Amazon US best seller list for Military Sciences.
Today I am number 1.
Many thanks to all those who bought a copy. Feedback and comments very welcome!
a.co/d/5TGkwrB
Today I am number 1.
Many thanks to all those who bought a copy. Feedback and comments very welcome!
a.co/d/5TGkwrB
Take out Maduro and divide Europeans on how to respond. Sort out two geopolitical challenges all at once. Then nick Greenland.
Double whammy benefits from POTUS’s FAFO strategy in South America…
www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...
Double whammy benefits from POTUS’s FAFO strategy in South America…
www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...
European leaders appear torn in face of new world order after Venezuela attack
Leaders try to focus on what comes next, as backing for ejection of Maduro mingles uncomfortably with voicing of support for international law
www.theguardian.com
January 4, 2026 at 11:21 PM
Take out Maduro and divide Europeans on how to respond. Sort out two geopolitical challenges all at once. Then nick Greenland.
Double whammy benefits from POTUS’s FAFO strategy in South America…
www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...
Double whammy benefits from POTUS’s FAFO strategy in South America…
www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...
Reposted by Matthew Ford
A trade war should follow, disastrous for both, but a tanking stock market is one of the few things to which Trump reacts. /2
January 4, 2026 at 12:50 PM
A trade war should follow, disastrous for both, but a tanking stock market is one of the few things to which Trump reacts. /2
Reposted by Matthew Ford
It is time for EU leaders to establish a clear (if confidential) strategy and red lines for a Trump takeover of Greenland against the will of Greenland and Denmark. /1 www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...
US attack on Venezuela raises fears of future Greenland takeover
Danish ambassador posts ‘friendly reminder’ about defence ties after provocative Maga post over territory
www.theguardian.com
January 4, 2026 at 12:44 PM
It is time for EU leaders to establish a clear (if confidential) strategy and red lines for a Trump takeover of Greenland against the will of Greenland and Denmark. /1 www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...
Not so sure about Venezuela though…
January 4, 2026 at 11:07 PM
Not so sure about Venezuela though…
Reposted by Matthew Ford
🇸🇪🇩🇰🇬🇱 PM of Sweden:
Only Denmark and Greenland have the right to decide on matters concerning Denmark and Greenland. Sweden fully stands up for our neighboring country.
Only Denmark and Greenland have the right to decide on matters concerning Denmark and Greenland. Sweden fully stands up for our neighboring country.
January 4, 2026 at 8:32 PM
🇸🇪🇩🇰🇬🇱 PM of Sweden:
Only Denmark and Greenland have the right to decide on matters concerning Denmark and Greenland. Sweden fully stands up for our neighboring country.
Only Denmark and Greenland have the right to decide on matters concerning Denmark and Greenland. Sweden fully stands up for our neighboring country.
You’re missing the point. They’re checking to see what gets reported on social media in real time as they’re watching the op unfold in the situation room.
The ethical and legal damage will be with us forever but it’s the raging incompetence that will strike first, within the next few days.
Director of the CIA is in the room but you have OSINTdefender's twitter page up on the screen
January 4, 2026 at 10:48 PM
You’re missing the point. They’re checking to see what gets reported on social media in real time as they’re watching the op unfold in the situation room.
Remove Delcy, have to hang out with Trump at Mar-a-Lago. Not a great sales pitch for the job…
So much of US planning now seems to hinge on the assumption that no rival Venezuelan faction would dare to remove Delcy Rodriguez from the game board
January 4, 2026 at 10:44 PM
Remove Delcy, have to hang out with Trump at Mar-a-Lago. Not a great sales pitch for the job…
While the heat is on Denmark and Greenland, followers might be interested in this book by Elsabeth Buchanan and published by @hurstpublishers.bsky.social
cc: @michaeldwyer.bsky.social
www.hurstpublishers.com/book/so-you-...
cc: @michaeldwyer.bsky.social
www.hurstpublishers.com/book/so-you-...
So You Want to Own Greenland? | Hurst Publishers
An indispensable guide to Greenland—why it matters, who covets it and how it could become the next global flashpoint.
www.hurstpublishers.com
January 4, 2026 at 8:58 PM
While the heat is on Denmark and Greenland, followers might be interested in this book by Elsabeth Buchanan and published by @hurstpublishers.bsky.social
cc: @michaeldwyer.bsky.social
www.hurstpublishers.com/book/so-you-...
cc: @michaeldwyer.bsky.social
www.hurstpublishers.com/book/so-you-...
No surprise Trump repeats his claims over Greenland just as he pushes for Ukraine to concede to Putin.
This is what great powers do. They divide up the world into spheres of influence.
It works ‘cos it legitimises intervention within a sphere. That’s the bargain Trump & Putin are tacitly agreeing.
This is what great powers do. They divide up the world into spheres of influence.
It works ‘cos it legitimises intervention within a sphere. That’s the bargain Trump & Putin are tacitly agreeing.
As I've long argued, the Greenland risk is underpriced
A possible US intervention in Greenland is the biggest source of risk to the transatlantic alliance and intra-NATO and intra-EU cohesion, arguably far greater than those presented by
Russia's invasion of Ukraine
A possible US intervention in Greenland is the biggest source of risk to the transatlantic alliance and intra-NATO and intra-EU cohesion, arguably far greater than those presented by
Russia's invasion of Ukraine
January 4, 2026 at 8:36 PM
No surprise Trump repeats his claims over Greenland just as he pushes for Ukraine to concede to Putin.
This is what great powers do. They divide up the world into spheres of influence.
It works ‘cos it legitimises intervention within a sphere. That’s the bargain Trump & Putin are tacitly agreeing.
This is what great powers do. They divide up the world into spheres of influence.
It works ‘cos it legitimises intervention within a sphere. That’s the bargain Trump & Putin are tacitly agreeing.
So identity has trumped economics which in turn has created a self-fulfilling vicious cycle.
Brexit makes you sovereign. This makes the UK poorer. This reinforces social tensions. Social tensions reinforce identities. Hey presto civil war…
Basically, a 20 year doom loop of wasted energy.
Brexit makes you sovereign. This makes the UK poorer. This reinforces social tensions. Social tensions reinforce identities. Hey presto civil war…
Basically, a 20 year doom loop of wasted energy.
Good article this. Racism really is the reverse of a performance-enhancing drug, the mad, stupid shit it leads people to believe in and to do:
‘Once whispered, now discussed’: the rise of dubious claims of civil war in the UK
Dystopian warnings once reserved for the far right have found a wider audience – but there are good reasons for scepticism
www.theguardian.com
January 4, 2026 at 2:32 PM
So identity has trumped economics which in turn has created a self-fulfilling vicious cycle.
Brexit makes you sovereign. This makes the UK poorer. This reinforces social tensions. Social tensions reinforce identities. Hey presto civil war…
Basically, a 20 year doom loop of wasted energy.
Brexit makes you sovereign. This makes the UK poorer. This reinforces social tensions. Social tensions reinforce identities. Hey presto civil war…
Basically, a 20 year doom loop of wasted energy.
Reposted by Matthew Ford
Some information Operation things to consider in relation to Op Resolve.
First, it has been possible to piece together the direction & objectives of the US operations in Caracas from open-sources. Maduro might have been the obvs target but (for me) the interesting thing is how much was still seen.
First, it has been possible to piece together the direction & objectives of the US operations in Caracas from open-sources. Maduro might have been the obvs target but (for me) the interesting thing is how much was still seen.
The US military conducted an operation on Jan 3 to capture President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela. Bellingcat geolocated videos of helicopters involved in the raid, piecing together potential movements of the assault force
January 4, 2026 at 10:39 AM
Some information Operation things to consider in relation to Op Resolve.
First, it has been possible to piece together the direction & objectives of the US operations in Caracas from open-sources. Maduro might have been the obvs target but (for me) the interesting thing is how much was still seen.
First, it has been possible to piece together the direction & objectives of the US operations in Caracas from open-sources. Maduro might have been the obvs target but (for me) the interesting thing is how much was still seen.
Reposted by Matthew Ford
You want civilian control of the military in a democracy. Well, this is it. Elect better civilians.
You want the military to be part of the checks and balances? That’s a praetorian guard.
You want the military to be part of the checks and balances? That’s a praetorian guard.
Real black pilled on the military. The oath means absolutely nothing at all, apparently. Happy to be praetorians, just as long as the check clears.
January 4, 2026 at 1:58 AM
You want civilian control of the military in a democracy. Well, this is it. Elect better civilians.
You want the military to be part of the checks and balances? That’s a praetorian guard.
You want the military to be part of the checks and balances? That’s a praetorian guard.
TODAY: Right wing X accounts inevitably pushing AI content depicting Trump rescuing them from Starmer….
January 4, 2026 at 12:11 PM
TODAY: Right wing X accounts inevitably pushing AI content depicting Trump rescuing them from Starmer….
Some information Operation things to consider in relation to Op Resolve.
First, it has been possible to piece together the direction & objectives of the US operations in Caracas from open-sources. Maduro might have been the obvs target but (for me) the interesting thing is how much was still seen.
First, it has been possible to piece together the direction & objectives of the US operations in Caracas from open-sources. Maduro might have been the obvs target but (for me) the interesting thing is how much was still seen.
The US military conducted an operation on Jan 3 to capture President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela. Bellingcat geolocated videos of helicopters involved in the raid, piecing together potential movements of the assault force
January 4, 2026 at 10:39 AM
Some information Operation things to consider in relation to Op Resolve.
First, it has been possible to piece together the direction & objectives of the US operations in Caracas from open-sources. Maduro might have been the obvs target but (for me) the interesting thing is how much was still seen.
First, it has been possible to piece together the direction & objectives of the US operations in Caracas from open-sources. Maduro might have been the obvs target but (for me) the interesting thing is how much was still seen.
Hegseth has gone on to explicitly make my point.👇
January 4, 2026 at 9:38 AM
Hegseth has gone on to explicitly make my point.👇
Reposted by Matthew Ford
It’s worse than really bad.
He’s going to Mar-a-Lago.
He’s going to Mar-a-Lago.
What are they going to do with him? Put him in Guantanamo?
Trump just posted this photo of Maduro with the caption, "Nicolas Maduro on board the USS Iwo Jima." truthsocial.com/@realDonaldT...
January 3, 2026 at 6:14 PM
It’s worse than really bad.
He’s going to Mar-a-Lago.
He’s going to Mar-a-Lago.
It’s worse than really bad.
He’s going to Mar-a-Lago.
He’s going to Mar-a-Lago.
What are they going to do with him? Put him in Guantanamo?
Trump just posted this photo of Maduro with the caption, "Nicolas Maduro on board the USS Iwo Jima." truthsocial.com/@realDonaldT...
January 3, 2026 at 6:14 PM
It’s worse than really bad.
He’s going to Mar-a-Lago.
He’s going to Mar-a-Lago.
Reposted by Matthew Ford
I would guess that is most likely. If he is brought to US soil he enters the normal justice system, which I doubt they would want.
January 3, 2026 at 6:00 PM
I would guess that is most likely. If he is brought to US soil he enters the normal justice system, which I doubt they would want.
What are they going to do with him? Put him in Guantanamo?
Trump just posted this photo of Maduro with the caption, "Nicolas Maduro on board the USS Iwo Jima." truthsocial.com/@realDonaldT...
January 3, 2026 at 5:56 PM
What are they going to do with him? Put him in Guantanamo?
My top 20 reads of 2025
(incl a few evergreen re-reads)
These books materially shaped how I think and work — and several translated directly into real professional impact.
I’ve got a strong list for 2026, but I’m keen to sharpen it:
- what should I be reading next?
(incl a few evergreen re-reads)
These books materially shaped how I think and work — and several translated directly into real professional impact.
I’ve got a strong list for 2026, but I’m keen to sharpen it:
- what should I be reading next?
January 3, 2026 at 5:13 PM
Reposted by Matthew Ford
What will the Europeans say? If they condemn Trump then they become subject to his National Security Strategy.
If they agree with it then they condone the end of the Rules Based Order and with it the system that has protected them.
If they agree with it then they condone the end of the Rules Based Order and with it the system that has protected them.
Emphasis on AmeriCAN not AmeriCAN’T in Venezuela right now…
Giving the finger to Bush, Cheney, Rummie and two failed decades of interventionist foreign policy.
Kissinger would be proud.
Giving the finger to Bush, Cheney, Rummie and two failed decades of interventionist foreign policy.
Kissinger would be proud.
a martini sign is in the middle of a city street
ALT: a martini sign is in the middle of a city street
media.tenor.com
January 3, 2026 at 11:38 AM
What will the Europeans say? If they condemn Trump then they become subject to his National Security Strategy.
If they agree with it then they condone the end of the Rules Based Order and with it the system that has protected them.
If they agree with it then they condone the end of the Rules Based Order and with it the system that has protected them.
Reposted by Matthew Ford
"What will the Europeans say?"
There is always that option that they would say nothing.
Propagation of uncertainty. Ends and resolutions are really rare events. Spread of chaos is longer than its collapse.
There is always that option that they would say nothing.
Propagation of uncertainty. Ends and resolutions are really rare events. Spread of chaos is longer than its collapse.
January 3, 2026 at 11:45 AM
"What will the Europeans say?"
There is always that option that they would say nothing.
Propagation of uncertainty. Ends and resolutions are really rare events. Spread of chaos is longer than its collapse.
There is always that option that they would say nothing.
Propagation of uncertainty. Ends and resolutions are really rare events. Spread of chaos is longer than its collapse.
What will the Europeans say? If they condemn Trump then they become subject to his National Security Strategy.
If they agree with it then they condone the end of the Rules Based Order and with it the system that has protected them.
If they agree with it then they condone the end of the Rules Based Order and with it the system that has protected them.
Emphasis on AmeriCAN not AmeriCAN’T in Venezuela right now…
Giving the finger to Bush, Cheney, Rummie and two failed decades of interventionist foreign policy.
Kissinger would be proud.
Giving the finger to Bush, Cheney, Rummie and two failed decades of interventionist foreign policy.
Kissinger would be proud.
a martini sign is in the middle of a city street
ALT: a martini sign is in the middle of a city street
media.tenor.com
January 3, 2026 at 11:38 AM
What will the Europeans say? If they condemn Trump then they become subject to his National Security Strategy.
If they agree with it then they condone the end of the Rules Based Order and with it the system that has protected them.
If they agree with it then they condone the end of the Rules Based Order and with it the system that has protected them.
Reposted by Matthew Ford
Zelensky should respond to this new precedent by sending a Ukrainian special forces team to capture and extract Vladimir Putin.
This makes Russia crying about how nobody cared about their false flag last week even more ironic. The US just openly declared that he is fair game for the Ukrainians.
This makes Russia crying about how nobody cared about their false flag last week even more ironic. The US just openly declared that he is fair game for the Ukrainians.
January 3, 2026 at 10:32 AM
Zelensky should respond to this new precedent by sending a Ukrainian special forces team to capture and extract Vladimir Putin.
This makes Russia crying about how nobody cared about their false flag last week even more ironic. The US just openly declared that he is fair game for the Ukrainians.
This makes Russia crying about how nobody cared about their false flag last week even more ironic. The US just openly declared that he is fair game for the Ukrainians.