Pavel Podvig
@russianforces.org
Russian nuclear forces, nuclear arms control, disarmament, verification. Strictly personal views here.
All coordinates are at http://russianforces.org/podvig
All coordinates are at http://russianforces.org/podvig
Reposted by Pavel Podvig
I am thrilled the newest "Russia's Nuclear Signaling" Chronology is published! Really glad @smetanamichal.bsky.social came onboard 15 months ago to continue this important work. A big thank you to all @swp-berlin.org @swp-intsecurity.bsky.social #STAND & @prcp.cuni.cz for making this possible! 1/7
www.swp-berlin.org
December 15, 2025 at 10:38 AM
I am thrilled the newest "Russia's Nuclear Signaling" Chronology is published! Really glad @smetanamichal.bsky.social came onboard 15 months ago to continue this important work. A big thank you to all @swp-berlin.org @swp-intsecurity.bsky.social #STAND & @prcp.cuni.cz for making this possible! 1/7
Reposted by Pavel Podvig
My annual report, Space Activities in 2025, is now available at planet4589.org/space/papers...
planet4589.org
January 1, 2026 at 11:59 PM
My annual report, Space Activities in 2025, is now available at planet4589.org/space/papers...
Well, Russian early-warning satellites may not be dead yet. Thanks to @planet4589.bsky.social and @coastal8049.bsky.social for pointing out that it may be too early to write these satellites off. I still think the constellation is not quite well, but we'll see in a few months. Links below 1/
January 1, 2026 at 8:33 PM
Well, Russian early-warning satellites may not be dead yet. Thanks to @planet4589.bsky.social and @coastal8049.bsky.social for pointing out that it may be too early to write these satellites off. I still think the constellation is not quite well, but we'll see in a few months. Links below 1/
Reposted by Pavel Podvig
This is a nice addition to the "bad Cold War ideas" file — nukes that would detonate themselves at full yield "in the event the carrier and/or crew fell prey to the enemy defense." Never adopted as far as I know... from a Sandia study of nuclear safety issues, 1959.
December 30, 2025 at 12:58 PM
This is a nice addition to the "bad Cold War ideas" file — nukes that would detonate themselves at full yield "in the event the carrier and/or crew fell prey to the enemy defense." Never adopted as far as I know... from a Sandia study of nuclear safety issues, 1959.
The space segment of the Russian early-warning system is not in good shape. Only one satellite appears to be operational. The image shows mean motion of Cosmos-2563, launched in November 2022. Links to posts below 1/2
December 28, 2025 at 10:18 AM
The space segment of the Russian early-warning system is not in good shape. Only one satellite appears to be operational. The image shows mean motion of Cosmos-2563, launched in November 2022. Links to posts below 1/2
It's now clear that the Yars test launch in early December was postponed. Russia made another attempt on Dec 25-26, unclear if successful (probably not). russianforces.org/blog/2025/12... (The early December attempt is here russianforces.org/blog/2025/12...)
russianforces.org
December 28, 2025 at 8:20 AM
It's now clear that the Yars test launch in early December was postponed. Russia made another attempt on Dec 25-26, unclear if successful (probably not). russianforces.org/blog/2025/12... (The early December attempt is here russianforces.org/blog/2025/12...)
Oreshnik in Belarus? Something is definitely happening but there are reasons to be skeptical. I tried to put various bits together russianforces.org/blog/2025/12... Krichev-6 on the map below is the site identified by Jeffrey Lewis' team (seems rather close to the Russian border) 1/2
December 27, 2025 at 7:07 PM
Oreshnik in Belarus? Something is definitely happening but there are reasons to be skeptical. I tried to put various bits together russianforces.org/blog/2025/12... Krichev-6 on the map below is the site identified by Jeffrey Lewis' team (seems rather close to the Russian border) 1/2
Missile defense was, of course, a big topic as well. Here is Putin in 2008 (I'd disagree with this logic, but it's a standard argument). What's interesting, the "barbaric" stuff was indeed under development. There is a photo of Status-6/Poseidon from 2009 russianforces.org/blog/2016/04...
December 26, 2025 at 9:07 AM
Missile defense was, of course, a big topic as well. Here is Putin in 2008 (I'd disagree with this logic, but it's a standard argument). What's interesting, the "barbaric" stuff was indeed under development. There is a photo of Status-6/Poseidon from 2009 russianforces.org/blog/2016/04...
Here is an interesting exchange between Bush and Putin in 2005. Uranium of Pakistani origin in Iran? And who are "they" who found it (if Iran didn't tell the IAEA)? nsarchive.gwu.edu/sites/defaul... (I must say I don't know Iran all that well, so maybe this is not something new at all)
December 26, 2025 at 8:21 AM
Here is an interesting exchange between Bush and Putin in 2005. Uranium of Pakistani origin in Iran? And who are "they" who found it (if Iran didn't tell the IAEA)? nsarchive.gwu.edu/sites/defaul... (I must say I don't know Iran all that well, so maybe this is not something new at all)
Deployment of Yars missiles in Kozelsk completed russianforces.org/blog/2025/12... The decision to keep silos for Yars was made in 2008, first two missiles deployed in 2014. The total number of Yars missiles in Kozelsk silos is now 30. Post on Substack: russianforces.substack.com/p/deployment...
December 18, 2025 at 8:02 PM
Deployment of Yars missiles in Kozelsk completed russianforces.org/blog/2025/12... The decision to keep silos for Yars was made in 2008, first two missiles deployed in 2014. The total number of Yars missiles in Kozelsk silos is now 30. Post on Substack: russianforces.substack.com/p/deployment...
Reposted by Pavel Podvig
I'm excited about this — expect lots of interesting things in the new year! thebulletin.org/2025/12/alex...
Alex Wellerstein joins the Bulletin
The Bulletin is proud to welcome Alex Wellerstein as a new Senior Fellow. In this role, he will work with the Bulletin’s editorial team on historical
thebulletin.org
December 18, 2025 at 3:02 PM
I'm excited about this — expect lots of interesting things in the new year! thebulletin.org/2025/12/alex...
Missile defense works perfectly ... against missiles that don't exist. Documents from the Katayev archive show how the Soviet Union concluded that it can come up with missile designs to defeat SDI. I'm sure it will be the same with the Golden Dome. Links to full posts below 1/2
December 16, 2025 at 8:50 PM
Missile defense works perfectly ... against missiles that don't exist. Documents from the Katayev archive show how the Soviet Union concluded that it can come up with missile designs to defeat SDI. I'm sure it will be the same with the Golden Dome. Links to full posts below 1/2
In early December Russia released NOTAMs for the 3-7 December window covering Plesetsk and Kura. By all indications it was a Yars launch. The test was either cancelled or postponed - NOTAMs were cancelled on 2 December (h/t
@thelookout.bsky.social) russianforces.org/blog/2025/12...
@thelookout.bsky.social) russianforces.org/blog/2025/12...
December 16, 2025 at 10:46 AM
In early December Russia released NOTAMs for the 3-7 December window covering Plesetsk and Kura. By all indications it was a Yars launch. The test was either cancelled or postponed - NOTAMs were cancelled on 2 December (h/t
@thelookout.bsky.social) russianforces.org/blog/2025/12...
@thelookout.bsky.social) russianforces.org/blog/2025/12...
Oh no. This is a very sad news. Bill was great.
I am absolutely gutted to hear that Dr. William (Bill) Burr of the
@nsarchive.bsky.social passed away yesterday. Bill was so kind, so generous, and so important to the field of nuclear history. And he was just a great guy on top of everything else. It is a huge loss.
@nsarchive.bsky.social passed away yesterday. Bill was so kind, so generous, and so important to the field of nuclear history. And he was just a great guy on top of everything else. It is a huge loss.
December 12, 2025 at 7:05 PM
Oh no. This is a very sad news. Bill was great.
Knyaz Pozharsky submarine was accepted for service in July 2025, but it's not clear if it test-launched its missile, Bulava. NOTAMs suggest that the launch was planned (h/t @m514ever.bsky.social) and it's likely it was scrubbed. But hard to say this with certainty. Links below. 1/
December 7, 2025 at 4:24 PM
Knyaz Pozharsky submarine was accepted for service in July 2025, but it's not clear if it test-launched its missile, Bulava. NOTAMs suggest that the launch was planned (h/t @m514ever.bsky.social) and it's likely it was scrubbed. But hard to say this with certainty. Links below. 1/
Reposted by Pavel Podvig
I am going to be holding a talk and discussion of my NEW BOOK about Truman and the atomic bomb on December 16, 2025 at 12-2pm ET. The event will be in Paris (free to anyone who is local — 18:00-20:00 CET), but also streamed on Zoom.
Here is the event description: www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/even...
Here is the event description: www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/even...
The Most Awful Responsibility: Truman's struggle for control of the atomic age
Alex Wellerstein’s new book argues that, contrary to current understandings, Truman was perhaps the most anti-nuclear president of the 20th century. In a key period, he did more than any leader since ...
www.sciencespo.fr
December 4, 2025 at 1:10 PM
I am going to be holding a talk and discussion of my NEW BOOK about Truman and the atomic bomb on December 16, 2025 at 12-2pm ET. The event will be in Paris (free to anyone who is local — 18:00-20:00 CET), but also streamed on Zoom.
Here is the event description: www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/even...
Here is the event description: www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/even...
Reposted by Pavel Podvig
Oh and TOMORROW, FRIDAY, December 5th, I will be doing an AMA about the book on Reddit's AskHistorians forum. Exact time TBD but it will probably start around 10am ET and go for a few hours.
I am going to be holding a talk and discussion of my NEW BOOK about Truman and the atomic bomb on December 16, 2025 at 12-2pm ET. The event will be in Paris (free to anyone who is local — 18:00-20:00 CET), but also streamed on Zoom.
Here is the event description: www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/even...
Here is the event description: www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/even...
The Most Awful Responsibility: Truman's struggle for control of the atomic age
Alex Wellerstein’s new book argues that, contrary to current understandings, Truman was perhaps the most anti-nuclear president of the 20th century. In a key period, he did more than any leader since ...
www.sciencespo.fr
December 4, 2025 at 3:55 PM
Oh and TOMORROW, FRIDAY, December 5th, I will be doing an AMA about the book on Reddit's AskHistorians forum. Exact time TBD but it will probably start around 10am ET and go for a few hours.
By all indications, the event in Yasnyy/Dombarovskiy was a failed Sarmat test (links to the full post below). So much for the promise to deploy the first Sarmat in 2025. I wouldn't overdramatize this - stuff happens. And it's not like Russia needs Sarmat. 1/
November 28, 2025 at 9:17 PM
By all indications, the event in Yasnyy/Dombarovskiy was a failed Sarmat test (links to the full post below). So much for the promise to deploy the first Sarmat in 2025. I wouldn't overdramatize this - stuff happens. And it's not like Russia needs Sarmat. 1/
Full video of the launch t.me/militaryruss.... Colleagues are positive it's SS-18 or Sarmat (they are quite similar). My guess is that Sarmat is more likely. A launch from Yasnyy logical after last year failure in Plesetsk. As for SS-18, it hasn't been tested for a while (2014?) so why do it now?
November 28, 2025 at 6:12 PM
Full video of the launch t.me/militaryruss.... Colleagues are positive it's SS-18 or Sarmat (they are quite similar). My guess is that Sarmat is more likely. A launch from Yasnyy logical after last year failure in Plesetsk. As for SS-18, it hasn't been tested for a while (2014?) so why do it now?
For comparison, here is a failed Proton launch in 2013. It's a bigger rocket, but it's UDMH/NOx too www.youtube.com/watch?v=ycRV...
November 28, 2025 at 4:35 PM
For comparison, here is a failed Proton launch in 2013. It's a bigger rocket, but it's UDMH/NOx too www.youtube.com/watch?v=ycRV...
Something happened in Yasnyy/Dombarovskiy. There is also a video and some NOTAMs t.me/militaryruss.... Looks like a failed ICBM launch. The color of this cloud doesn't look good. Not clear if it's Sarmat. There are other options: SS-18 or SS-19. Wait for more information.
November 28, 2025 at 3:43 PM
Something happened in Yasnyy/Dombarovskiy. There is also a video and some NOTAMs t.me/militaryruss.... Looks like a failed ICBM launch. The color of this cloud doesn't look good. Not clear if it's Sarmat. There are other options: SS-18 or SS-19. Wait for more information.
Reposted by Pavel Podvig
Excellent stuff here from Tatiana Stanovaya. x.com/Stanovaya/st...
November 26, 2025 at 8:51 PM
Excellent stuff here from Tatiana Stanovaya. x.com/Stanovaya/st...
Apparently, it's the first document of this kind in quite a while (since 2005?). Here is the link www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xw/w...
November 27, 2025 at 11:16 AM
Apparently, it's the first document of this kind in quite a while (since 2005?). Here is the link www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xw/w...
Three Rodnik communication satellites launched from Plesetsk by Angara 1.2 launcher. Will be designated Cosmos-2597, -2598, and -2599. This is second Rodnik launch in 2025 (previous in March). Links in the next post. 1/
November 26, 2025 at 7:14 AM
Three Rodnik communication satellites launched from Plesetsk by Angara 1.2 launcher. Will be designated Cosmos-2597, -2598, and -2599. This is second Rodnik launch in 2025 (previous in March). Links in the next post. 1/
This post by @wellerstein.bsky.social doomsdaymachines.net/p/nuclear-we... reminded me of an interesting observation by a colleague based on her interviews about attitudes toward nuclear weapons: Older generation experts are quite emotional about nuclear weapons. The younger folks, not so much.
"Nuclear weapons repel all thought, perhaps because they can end all thought"
Martin Amis on the difficulties of writing about nuclear war
doomsdaymachines.net
November 24, 2025 at 12:57 PM
This post by @wellerstein.bsky.social doomsdaymachines.net/p/nuclear-we... reminded me of an interesting observation by a colleague based on her interviews about attitudes toward nuclear weapons: Older generation experts are quite emotional about nuclear weapons. The younger folks, not so much.