Pavel Podvig
@russianforces.org
Russian nuclear forces, nuclear arms control, disarmament, verification. Strictly personal views here.
All coordinates are at http://russianforces.org/podvig
All coordinates are at http://russianforces.org/podvig
I'm not an economist, so don't shoot me. One idea shows up in many places in @johncassidysays.bsky.social Capitalism & its Critics: Capitalism is truly effective in amassing wealth, which must be spent (it creates problems otherwise). But the system cannot spend it on citizens' welfare... 1/
November 16, 2025 at 8:40 AM
I'm not an economist, so don't shoot me. One idea shows up in many places in @johncassidysays.bsky.social Capitalism & its Critics: Capitalism is truly effective in amassing wealth, which must be spent (it creates problems otherwise). But the system cannot spend it on citizens' welfare... 1/
There seems to be a new date for Sarmat deployment: "experimental combat duty" in 2025 and "combat duty" in 2026. The former seems plausible: Rocket Forces can put it into one of the Uzhur silos (like the one below). The latter is unlikely w/o tests. Links to posts in reply 1/
November 12, 2025 at 7:01 PM
There seems to be a new date for Sarmat deployment: "experimental combat duty" in 2025 and "combat duty" in 2026. The former seems plausible: Rocket Forces can put it into one of the Uzhur silos (like the one below). The latter is unlikely w/o tests. Links to posts in reply 1/
By the way, Lavrov's "we are ready to discuss US suspicions regarding nuclear experiments" appears to be the first of this kind. Back in 2020, when the accusations was first made, the official response was "we do not intend to discuss compliance [with the US]"
Lavrov at a press conference today: "We are ready to discuss..." mid.ru/ru/foreign_p... Well, that would be a useful discussion. It's funny that on this issue it's Russia that is the adult in the room.
November 12, 2025 at 1:33 PM
By the way, Lavrov's "we are ready to discuss US suspicions regarding nuclear experiments" appears to be the first of this kind. Back in 2020, when the accusations was first made, the official response was "we do not intend to discuss compliance [with the US]"
Lavrov at a press conference today: "We are ready to discuss..." mid.ru/ru/foreign_p... Well, that would be a useful discussion. It's funny that on this issue it's Russia that is the adult in the room.
November 11, 2025 at 6:53 PM
Lavrov at a press conference today: "We are ready to discuss..." mid.ru/ru/foreign_p... Well, that would be a useful discussion. It's funny that on this issue it's Russia that is the adult in the room.
Reposted by Pavel Podvig
I'll be doing this tomorrow!
Tomorrow at 11:30 AM CST / 12:30 PM EST, join the Bulletin for an expert discussion unpacking "A House of Dynamite"—what was real, what was exaggerated, and what would happen next.
Register for free below. ⬇️
Register for free below. ⬇️
Experts React: Netflix's A House of Dynamite
On November 6, join the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists for an expert discussion on Netflix's A House of Dynamite movie, including US capacity to defend against a direct nuclear strike, arms…
pages.thebulletin.org
November 5, 2025 at 10:22 PM
I'll be doing this tomorrow!
I wouldn't be surprised if part of their pitch was, We can intercept that Burevestnik thing...
Exclusive: SpaceX is set to receive $2 billion to develop satellites that can track missiles and aircraft under President Trump’s Golden Dome project.
Elon Musk’s SpaceX Set to Win $2 Billion Pentagon Satellite Deal
The funding would support the development of satellites for President Trump’s Golden Dome project.
on.wsj.com
October 31, 2025 at 11:42 AM
I wouldn't be surprised if part of their pitch was, We can intercept that Burevestnik thing...
Reposted by Pavel Podvig
After U.S. moves to resume nuclear testing, Kremlin spokesman Peskov tells Trump Russia’s Burevestnik test was non-nuclear
Experts Pavel Podvig (@russianforces.org) and Henry Sokolski of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center weigh in on the latest developments.
Experts Pavel Podvig (@russianforces.org) and Henry Sokolski of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center weigh in on the latest developments.
After U.S. moves to resume nuclear testing, Kremlin spokesman Peskov tells Trump Russia’s Burevestnik test was non-nuclear
On Oct. 30, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia’s recent test of its nuclear-powered Burevestnik long-range cruise missile was “non-nuclear,” as it involved a test of a nuclear delivery s...
theins.press
October 31, 2025 at 9:17 AM
After U.S. moves to resume nuclear testing, Kremlin spokesman Peskov tells Trump Russia’s Burevestnik test was non-nuclear
Experts Pavel Podvig (@russianforces.org) and Henry Sokolski of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center weigh in on the latest developments.
Experts Pavel Podvig (@russianforces.org) and Henry Sokolski of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center weigh in on the latest developments.
And here is 9M729. Note that "they began [to use it] on August 21." Russia formally announced the end of its moratorium on August 4. So, it appears that the moratorium on deployment was a thing. www.reuters.com/business/aer... 1/2
www.reuters.com
October 31, 2025 at 11:13 AM
And here is 9M729. Note that "they began [to use it] on August 21." Russia formally announced the end of its moratorium on August 4. So, it appears that the moratorium on deployment was a thing. www.reuters.com/business/aer... 1/2
Reposted by Pavel Podvig
I wrote briefs on Putin's media gambit in Pokrovsk and Germany's deliberations on Rosneft Deutschland. Plus Trump's nuke testing order and Russia's Poseidon & Burevestnik tests. Always happy to get the chance to share insights from @russianforces.org.
meduza.io/en/feature/2...
meduza.io/en/feature/2...
How Russian and American signaling turned nuclear again It’s October 30, 2025. Here are three stories worth your attention. — Meduza
Donald Trump ordered the U.S. military to resume testing nuclear weapons for the first time in 33 years. The announcement, made during the president’s tour of Asia and following Moscow’s recent tests ...
meduza.io
October 30, 2025 at 9:19 PM
I wrote briefs on Putin's media gambit in Pokrovsk and Germany's deliberations on Rosneft Deutschland. Plus Trump's nuke testing order and Russia's Poseidon & Burevestnik tests. Always happy to get the chance to share insights from @russianforces.org.
meduza.io/en/feature/2...
meduza.io/en/feature/2...
It's a sad sign of these sad times that many people assumed almost immediately that it's about nuclear tests. It's as if we want more bad nuclear news.
October 30, 2025 at 10:52 AM
It's a sad sign of these sad times that many people assumed almost immediately that it's about nuclear tests. It's as if we want more bad nuclear news.
Reposted by Pavel Podvig
1/n - Trump says something about nuclear weapons tests...It’s hard to know what he means. As usual, he’s unclear, all over the map, and wrong.
1. The United States has more Nuclear Weapons than any other country.
Wrong. Russia has more nuclear weapons than the United States.
1. The United States has more Nuclear Weapons than any other country.
Wrong. Russia has more nuclear weapons than the United States.
October 30, 2025 at 6:22 AM
1/n - Trump says something about nuclear weapons tests...It’s hard to know what he means. As usual, he’s unclear, all over the map, and wrong.
1. The United States has more Nuclear Weapons than any other country.
Wrong. Russia has more nuclear weapons than the United States.
1. The United States has more Nuclear Weapons than any other country.
Wrong. Russia has more nuclear weapons than the United States.
it's striking how similar Putin is to Khrushchev when it comes to nuclear weapons and "unique" weapon systems. Totally the same vibe.
October 29, 2025 at 9:52 PM
it's striking how similar Putin is to Khrushchev when it comes to nuclear weapons and "unique" weapon systems. Totally the same vibe.
Russia ends the Plutonium Management and Disposition Agreement, but the commitment not to use PMDA plutonium for military purposes appears to remain in place. Links in the next tweet. Image: A mock up of a container used to store plutonium at Mayak 1/2
October 28, 2025 at 10:41 PM
Russia ends the Plutonium Management and Disposition Agreement, but the commitment not to use PMDA plutonium for military purposes appears to remain in place. Links in the next tweet. Image: A mock up of a container used to store plutonium at Mayak 1/2
I tried to take a look at the history of large strategic force exercises in Russia to see how the goals changed over the years. I don't think there is a clear pattern, but at least I have all these in one place. russianforces.org/blog/2025/10... Image is from the 2017 one.
October 27, 2025 at 10:04 PM
I tried to take a look at the history of large strategic force exercises in Russia to see how the goals changed over the years. I don't think there is a clear pattern, but at least I have all these in one place. russianforces.org/blog/2025/10... Image is from the 2017 one.
Reposted by Pavel Podvig
imo this is *not* space debris. It appears too fast for that. Rather, it looks like a slow fragmenting meteoric fireball of asteroidal origin, likely dropping meteorites. #Moscow #fireball
#BREAKING | A bright green fireball was observed streaking across the sky of the Russian capital Moscow at approximately 6:30 a.m. local time. Experts attribute it to space debris re-entry.
The Global Eye
#BREAKING | A bright green fireball was observed streaking across the sky of the Russian capital Moscow at approximately 6:30 a.m. local time. Experts attribute it to space debris re-entry.
The Globa...
t.me
October 27, 2025 at 12:57 PM
First 100 subscribers... It's easy to get a 1300% growth rate from a low base 🙂 If you prefer to get news by email, please subscribe (it's free). The link is below. I'm planning a post on how stated goals of strategic exercises have changed over the years. 1/2
October 27, 2025 at 4:53 PM
First 100 subscribers... It's easy to get a 1300% growth rate from a low base 🙂 If you prefer to get news by email, please subscribe (it's free). The link is below. I'm planning a post on how stated goals of strategic exercises have changed over the years. 1/2
Jeffrey is absolutely right about Burevestnik (it's from a NYT piece www.nytimes.com/2025/10/26/w...), but the thing is that exactly the same can (and should) be said about US missile defense and Golden Dome in particular.
October 27, 2025 at 6:21 AM
Jeffrey is absolutely right about Burevestnik (it's from a NYT piece www.nytimes.com/2025/10/26/w...), but the thing is that exactly the same can (and should) be said about US missile defense and Golden Dome in particular.
People are asking what's the purpose of Burevestnik and why develop a system that is very much useless as a weapon. The answer has always been right there, in the 1 March 2018 address. Russian president has always wanted to say these words. The rest doesn't matter really.
October 26, 2025 at 9:15 PM
People are asking what's the purpose of Burevestnik and why develop a system that is very much useless as a weapon. The answer has always been right there, in the 1 March 2018 address. Russian president has always wanted to say these words. The rest doesn't matter really.
By the way, I don't think it's correct to call Burevestnik "a flying Chernobyl." I wouldn't be surprised if Russian engineers solved the problem of radioactivity in the heat exchanger/exhaust. And any radioactive trail would have been detected by someone.
On 21 October 2025 Russia conducted "the key test" of the Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile (also referred to as SSC-X-9 Skyfall). The test is reported to be successful. The missile travelled 14,000 km in a 15-hour flight (Image: Pan'kovo test site). Links follow 1/
October 26, 2025 at 1:04 PM
By the way, I don't think it's correct to call Burevestnik "a flying Chernobyl." I wouldn't be surprised if Russian engineers solved the problem of radioactivity in the heat exchanger/exhaust. And any radioactive trail would have been detected by someone.
On 21 October 2025 Russia conducted "the key test" of the Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile (also referred to as SSC-X-9 Skyfall). The test is reported to be successful. The missile travelled 14,000 km in a 15-hour flight (Image: Pan'kovo test site). Links follow 1/
October 26, 2025 at 8:47 AM
On 21 October 2025 Russia conducted "the key test" of the Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile (also referred to as SSC-X-9 Skyfall). The test is reported to be successful. The missile travelled 14,000 km in a 15-hour flight (Image: Pan'kovo test site). Links follow 1/
Yes, assuming no common mode failures etc. But even without those, can one be certain of 95%-ish? Worth recalling that plenty of forecasts gave Clinton 99% chance in 2016. With unique events probability is not really a thing.
but...even if you assume a 57% sspk, you fire four and you get a pk of like 95%~ish*
(*assuming no common mode failures, etc. etc.)
(*assuming no common mode failures, etc. etc.)
October 25, 2025 at 9:10 PM
Yes, assuming no common mode failures etc. But even without those, can one be certain of 95%-ish? Worth recalling that plenty of forecasts gave Clinton 99% chance in 2016. With unique events probability is not really a thing.
I have set up a Substack, so if you would rather get stuff in your email, please subscribe. I plan to keep it free. Substack also allows for a reasonably structured discussion - feel free to start it there. The subscription link is in the next post 1/
October 24, 2025 at 9:26 AM
I have set up a Substack, so if you would rather get stuff in your email, please subscribe. I plan to keep it free. Substack also allows for a reasonably structured discussion - feel free to start it there. The subscription link is in the next post 1/
Russia conducted a regular exercise of strategic forces. Launches of Yars from Plesetsk, Sineva from Barents Sea (Bryansk submarine), and ALCMs from Tu-95MS. russianforces.org/blog/2025/10... The image is a rare shot of a launch as seen from inside a Krona shelter.
October 22, 2025 at 3:36 PM
Russia conducted a regular exercise of strategic forces. Launches of Yars from Plesetsk, Sineva from Barents Sea (Bryansk submarine), and ALCMs from Tu-95MS. russianforces.org/blog/2025/10... The image is a rare shot of a launch as seen from inside a Krona shelter.
The Plutonium Management and Disposition Agreement (PMDA), which Russia is about to withdraw from, is an example of US violating its obligations. Link to a brief history is below. The US did ask eventually, but when Russia said no, went ahead with the change of plans anyway 1/
October 9, 2025 at 8:18 PM
The Plutonium Management and Disposition Agreement (PMDA), which Russia is about to withdraw from, is an example of US violating its obligations. Link to a brief history is below. The US did ask eventually, but when Russia said no, went ahead with the change of plans anyway 1/
Strategic Simplicity folks looked at Russia's post-New START proposal (link next). Quite surprisingly, they came up with reasonable recommendations. Like the one below. I just came from an ACA First Committee side event, where I advocated something similar 1/
October 9, 2025 at 8:10 PM
Strategic Simplicity folks looked at Russia's post-New START proposal (link next). Quite surprisingly, they came up with reasonable recommendations. Like the one below. I just came from an ACA First Committee side event, where I advocated something similar 1/