Objects A and B are still in unexpected orbits, and if C and D are not Marafon then those satellites are missing.
January 19, 2026 at 12:39 AM
Objects A and B are still in unexpected orbits, and if C and D are not Marafon then those satellites are missing.
Reposted by Jonathan McDowell
It's a somewhat busy Chinese spaceflight day today, not the least of which Shenzhou 20's finally coming back in the next 1.5 hours (apparently no live coverage alas). I think it's almost certain extra shielding installed will be enough, but who knows?
China 'N Asia Spaceflight 🚀𝕏 🛰️ (@CNSpaceflight)
Shenzhou-20 spacecraft is returning shortly. Let's see if the uncrewed return capsule can survive.
Quoting China 'N Asia Spaceflight 🚀𝕏 🛰️ (@CNSpaceflight)
🎉 Welcome home. Shenzhou-20 astronauts CH...
fixupx.com
January 19, 2026 at 12:07 AM
It's a somewhat busy Chinese spaceflight day today, not the least of which Shenzhou 20's finally coming back in the next 1.5 hours (apparently no live coverage alas). I think it's almost certain extra shielding installed will be enough, but who knows?
According to Fergani Space,
the FGN-TUG-S01 manuevered to a 530 x 720 km orbit on Dec 6 and released a cubesat. Space Force does not have anything in that orbit associated with the Transporter-15 2025-276 launch, but 2025-313C and D do appear to match -
possible mistag?
the FGN-TUG-S01 manuevered to a 530 x 720 km orbit on Dec 6 and released a cubesat. Space Force does not have anything in that orbit associated with the Transporter-15 2025-276 launch, but 2025-313C and D do appear to match -
possible mistag?
January 19, 2026 at 12:27 AM
According to Fergani Space,
the FGN-TUG-S01 manuevered to a 530 x 720 km orbit on Dec 6 and released a cubesat. Space Force does not have anything in that orbit associated with the Transporter-15 2025-276 launch, but 2025-313C and D do appear to match -
possible mistag?
the FGN-TUG-S01 manuevered to a 530 x 720 km orbit on Dec 6 and released a cubesat. Space Force does not have anything in that orbit associated with the Transporter-15 2025-276 launch, but 2025-313C and D do appear to match -
possible mistag?
67483, the object erroneously associated with the Gushenxing-2 launch, has been reassigned to a new (and so far unidentified) object from the Transporter-15 mission
I am so glad I wrote "apparently". To my surprise, US Space Force has cataloged 2016-012A / 67483 in a 566 x 578 km x 97.5 deg orbit passing right over Jiuquan at launch time. Success after all?
LAUNCH and apparently *another* failure - at 0408 UTC Jan 17 of the first Gushenxing-2 from Jiuquan
January 19, 2026 at 12:02 AM
67483, the object erroneously associated with the Gushenxing-2 launch, has been reassigned to a new (and so far unidentified) object from the Transporter-15 mission
LAUNCH at 2331 UTC Jan 18 of Starlink 6-100 from Canaveral
January 18, 2026 at 11:32 PM
LAUNCH at 2331 UTC Jan 18 of Starlink 6-100 from Canaveral
No, I checked for that and couldn't find any candidates
January 18, 2026 at 2:16 PM
No, I checked for that and couldn't find any candidates
According to the US Space Force TIP (Target Impact Prediction) the Starlink 35956 satellite, which suffered an internal failure on Dec 18 and generated as-yet-uncataloged debris, has reentered over N Queensland and Papua New Guinea at about 0713 UTC Jan 17
January 18, 2026 at 1:56 AM
According to the US Space Force TIP (Target Impact Prediction) the Starlink 35956 satellite, which suffered an internal failure on Dec 18 and generated as-yet-uncataloged debris, has reentered over N Queensland and Papua New Guinea at about 0713 UTC Jan 17
The balance of the evidence now seems to be that the Gushenxing-2 was indeed a failure, and the Space Force 2026-012A launch was either a mis-tag, a search elset that slipped through, or an AI hallucination.
January 18, 2026 at 12:53 AM
The balance of the evidence now seems to be that the Gushenxing-2 was indeed a failure, and the Space Force 2026-012A launch was either a mis-tag, a search elset that slipped through, or an AI hallucination.
Of course I meant 2026-012A
January 17, 2026 at 11:32 PM
Of course I meant 2026-012A
However, I don't see any objects being tracked in the unclassified catalog which are candidates for possible cross tagging.
January 17, 2026 at 11:30 PM
However, I don't see any objects being tracked in the unclassified catalog which are candidates for possible cross tagging.
Possibly. Or possibly the Jiuquan team lost telemetry and
lost visual early and just assumed they had a failure. But I agree misidentification is a strong possibility
lost visual early and just assumed they had a failure. But I agree misidentification is a strong possibility
January 17, 2026 at 11:19 PM
Possibly. Or possibly the Jiuquan team lost telemetry and
lost visual early and just assumed they had a failure. But I agree misidentification is a strong possibility
lost visual early and just assumed they had a failure. But I agree misidentification is a strong possibility
I am so glad I wrote "apparently". To my surprise, US Space Force has cataloged 2016-012A / 67483 in a 566 x 578 km x 97.5 deg orbit passing right over Jiuquan at launch time. Success after all?
LAUNCH and apparently *another* failure - at 0408 UTC Jan 17 of the first Gushenxing-2 from Jiuquan
January 17, 2026 at 10:52 PM
I am so glad I wrote "apparently". To my surprise, US Space Force has cataloged 2016-012A / 67483 in a 566 x 578 km x 97.5 deg orbit passing right over Jiuquan at launch time. Success after all?
Last Starshield had only 8 payloads. I think there are several Starshield subseries using the same basic bus but with different payloads, and launched in different size batches.
January 17, 2026 at 6:29 AM
Last Starshield had only 8 payloads. I think there are several Starshield subseries using the same basic bus but with different payloads, and launched in different size batches.
LAUNCH and apparently *another* failure - at 0408 UTC Jan 17 of the first Gushenxing-2 from Jiuquan
January 17, 2026 at 5:36 AM
LAUNCH and apparently *another* failure - at 0408 UTC Jan 17 of the first Gushenxing-2 from Jiuquan
LAUNCH at 0440 UTC of a Falcon 9 from Vandenberg with the NROL-105 Starshield mission
January 17, 2026 at 5:29 AM
LAUNCH at 0440 UTC of a Falcon 9 from Vandenberg with the NROL-105 Starshield mission
LAUNCH at 1655 UTC Jan 16 and FAILURE of a Chang Zheng 3B from Xichang with the SJ-32 (实践三十二号卫星 ) satellite. No further details available yet.
January 17, 2026 at 2:36 AM
LAUNCH at 1655 UTC Jan 16 and FAILURE of a Chang Zheng 3B from Xichang with the SJ-32 (实践三十二号卫星 ) satellite. No further details available yet.
Yeah, we just don't know. Sounds like it was acute and temporary, so I think cardiac and TIA are in the mix
January 16, 2026 at 11:00 PM
Yeah, we just don't know. Sounds like it was acute and temporary, so I think cardiac and TIA are in the mix
@thitch.bsky.social why does Ron Lerch think that Mozhaets-6 is stealthy and not just small?
January 16, 2026 at 12:35 AM
@thitch.bsky.social why does Ron Lerch think that Mozhaets-6 is stealthy and not just small?
That article says Mozhaets6 is 9.5 mag fainter than a GPS. That's a factor of 6000. GPS III sat with solar panels deployed has an area ~ 60 sq m, so to get 6000 x fainter at same reflectivity M6 would be about 10 cm across. Plausible it's a 6U cubesat about 30cm across so not especialy stealthy
January 16, 2026 at 12:33 AM
That article says Mozhaets6 is 9.5 mag fainter than a GPS. That's a factor of 6000. GPS III sat with solar panels deployed has an area ~ 60 sq m, so to get 6000 x fainter at same reflectivity M6 would be about 10 cm across. Plausible it's a 6U cubesat about 30cm across so not especialy stealthy
Ah, I see my friend Theresa Hitchens wrote about this in Breaking Defense back on Dec 11, I missed it then.
January 16, 2026 at 12:25 AM
Ah, I see my friend Theresa Hitchens wrote about this in Breaking Defense back on Dec 11, I missed it then.
Interesting comment in the Dec 22 issue of AvWeek (p22) that Mozhaets-6 (object 65589), launched last September, is a 'low visibility' or 'stealth' satellite - may explain why we still have no Space Force orbital data for it
January 16, 2026 at 12:11 AM
Interesting comment in the Dec 22 issue of AvWeek (p22) that Mozhaets-6 (object 65589), launched last September, is a 'low visibility' or 'stealth' satellite - may explain why we still have no Space Force orbital data for it
LAUNCH at about 2010 UTC Jan 15 of a Guzhenzhing-1S from the DEFU0001 barge off the coast of Rizhao carrying four Tianqi IoT comm satellites
January 15, 2026 at 8:13 PM
LAUNCH at about 2010 UTC Jan 15 of a Guzhenzhing-1S from the DEFU0001 barge off the coast of Rizhao carrying four Tianqi IoT comm satellites
Two objects from the Alsat-3A CZ-2C launch cataloged in 489 x 627 km x 97 deg (A) and 488 x 503 km x 97 deg (B) sunsync orbits with 10:21 LTDN. Unclear for now which one is the payload .
January 15, 2026 at 4:55 PM
Two objects from the Alsat-3A CZ-2C launch cataloged in 489 x 627 km x 97 deg (A) and 488 x 503 km x 97 deg (B) sunsync orbits with 10:21 LTDN. Unclear for now which one is the payload .
Via John Locker on Seesat-L, this appears to be the NOTAM regions for the second ISAR Aerospace Spectrum orbital attempt from Andoya scheduled for Jan 19
January 15, 2026 at 9:19 AM
Via John Locker on Seesat-L, this appears to be the NOTAM regions for the second ISAR Aerospace Spectrum orbital attempt from Andoya scheduled for Jan 19
Splashdown of Crew-11 at 0841:36 UTC Jan 15 near 117.74W 32.59N off the coast of San Diego
January 15, 2026 at 8:45 AM
Splashdown of Crew-11 at 0841:36 UTC Jan 15 near 117.74W 32.59N off the coast of San Diego