Pavel Podvig
@russianforces.org
Russian nuclear forces, nuclear arms control, disarmament, verification. Strictly personal views here.
All coordinates are at http://russianforces.org/podvig
All coordinates are at http://russianforces.org/podvig
Niels Bohr writing to Carlsberg Foundation: "I respectfully request a travel grant of 2500 Kr for a one-year study stay at foreign universities." That's it. That's the entire proposal. He received approval the next day...
November 21, 2025 at 8:40 AM
Niels Bohr writing to Carlsberg Foundation: "I respectfully request a travel grant of 2500 Kr for a one-year study stay at foreign universities." That's it. That's the entire proposal. He received approval the next day...
There seems to be a new date for Sarmat deployment: "experimental combat duty" in 2025 and "combat duty" in 2026. The former seems plausible: Rocket Forces can put it into one of the Uzhur silos (like the one below). The latter is unlikely w/o tests. Links to posts in reply 1/
November 12, 2025 at 7:01 PM
There seems to be a new date for Sarmat deployment: "experimental combat duty" in 2025 and "combat duty" in 2026. The former seems plausible: Rocket Forces can put it into one of the Uzhur silos (like the one below). The latter is unlikely w/o tests. Links to posts in reply 1/
Lavrov at a press conference today: "We are ready to discuss..." mid.ru/ru/foreign_p... Well, that would be a useful discussion. It's funny that on this issue it's Russia that is the adult in the room.
November 11, 2025 at 6:53 PM
Lavrov at a press conference today: "We are ready to discuss..." mid.ru/ru/foreign_p... Well, that would be a useful discussion. It's funny that on this issue it's Russia that is the adult in the room.
Russia ends the Plutonium Management and Disposition Agreement, but the commitment not to use PMDA plutonium for military purposes appears to remain in place. Links in the next tweet. Image: A mock up of a container used to store plutonium at Mayak 1/2
October 28, 2025 at 10:41 PM
Russia ends the Plutonium Management and Disposition Agreement, but the commitment not to use PMDA plutonium for military purposes appears to remain in place. Links in the next tweet. Image: A mock up of a container used to store plutonium at Mayak 1/2
I tried to take a look at the history of large strategic force exercises in Russia to see how the goals changed over the years. I don't think there is a clear pattern, but at least I have all these in one place. russianforces.org/blog/2025/10... Image is from the 2017 one.
October 27, 2025 at 10:04 PM
I tried to take a look at the history of large strategic force exercises in Russia to see how the goals changed over the years. I don't think there is a clear pattern, but at least I have all these in one place. russianforces.org/blog/2025/10... Image is from the 2017 one.
Here is the link: russianforces.substack.com 2/2
October 27, 2025 at 4:53 PM
Here is the link: russianforces.substack.com 2/2
First 100 subscribers... It's easy to get a 1300% growth rate from a low base 🙂 If you prefer to get news by email, please subscribe (it's free). The link is below. I'm planning a post on how stated goals of strategic exercises have changed over the years. 1/2
October 27, 2025 at 4:53 PM
First 100 subscribers... It's easy to get a 1300% growth rate from a low base 🙂 If you prefer to get news by email, please subscribe (it's free). The link is below. I'm planning a post on how stated goals of strategic exercises have changed over the years. 1/2
Jeffrey is absolutely right about Burevestnik (it's from a NYT piece www.nytimes.com/2025/10/26/w...), but the thing is that exactly the same can (and should) be said about US missile defense and Golden Dome in particular.
October 27, 2025 at 6:21 AM
Jeffrey is absolutely right about Burevestnik (it's from a NYT piece www.nytimes.com/2025/10/26/w...), but the thing is that exactly the same can (and should) be said about US missile defense and Golden Dome in particular.
People are asking what's the purpose of Burevestnik and why develop a system that is very much useless as a weapon. The answer has always been right there, in the 1 March 2018 address. Russian president has always wanted to say these words. The rest doesn't matter really.
October 26, 2025 at 9:15 PM
People are asking what's the purpose of Burevestnik and why develop a system that is very much useless as a weapon. The answer has always been right there, in the 1 March 2018 address. Russian president has always wanted to say these words. The rest doesn't matter really.
On 21 October 2025 Russia conducted "the key test" of the Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile (also referred to as SSC-X-9 Skyfall). The test is reported to be successful. The missile travelled 14,000 km in a 15-hour flight (Image: Pan'kovo test site). Links follow 1/
October 26, 2025 at 8:47 AM
On 21 October 2025 Russia conducted "the key test" of the Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile (also referred to as SSC-X-9 Skyfall). The test is reported to be successful. The missile travelled 14,000 km in a 15-hour flight (Image: Pan'kovo test site). Links follow 1/
I have set up a Substack, so if you would rather get stuff in your email, please subscribe. I plan to keep it free. Substack also allows for a reasonably structured discussion - feel free to start it there. The subscription link is in the next post 1/
October 24, 2025 at 9:26 AM
I have set up a Substack, so if you would rather get stuff in your email, please subscribe. I plan to keep it free. Substack also allows for a reasonably structured discussion - feel free to start it there. The subscription link is in the next post 1/
Russia conducted a regular exercise of strategic forces. Launches of Yars from Plesetsk, Sineva from Barents Sea (Bryansk submarine), and ALCMs from Tu-95MS. russianforces.org/blog/2025/10... The image is a rare shot of a launch as seen from inside a Krona shelter.
October 22, 2025 at 3:36 PM
Russia conducted a regular exercise of strategic forces. Launches of Yars from Plesetsk, Sineva from Barents Sea (Bryansk submarine), and ALCMs from Tu-95MS. russianforces.org/blog/2025/10... The image is a rare shot of a launch as seen from inside a Krona shelter.
The Plutonium Management and Disposition Agreement (PMDA), which Russia is about to withdraw from, is an example of US violating its obligations. Link to a brief history is below. The US did ask eventually, but when Russia said no, went ahead with the change of plans anyway 1/
October 9, 2025 at 8:18 PM
The Plutonium Management and Disposition Agreement (PMDA), which Russia is about to withdraw from, is an example of US violating its obligations. Link to a brief history is below. The US did ask eventually, but when Russia said no, went ahead with the change of plans anyway 1/
Strategic Simplicity folks looked at Russia's post-New START proposal (link next). Quite surprisingly, they came up with reasonable recommendations. Like the one below. I just came from an ACA First Committee side event, where I advocated something similar 1/
October 9, 2025 at 8:10 PM
Strategic Simplicity folks looked at Russia's post-New START proposal (link next). Quite surprisingly, they came up with reasonable recommendations. Like the one below. I just came from an ACA First Committee side event, where I advocated something similar 1/
I made an argument along these lines in my Arms Control Today piece www.armscontrol.org/act/2024-05/.... The limits are much less important than data exchange and verification (including on-site inspections). The US seems prepared to bear the political cost of the upload anyway. 5/
October 1, 2025 at 9:12 AM
I made an argument along these lines in my Arms Control Today piece www.armscontrol.org/act/2024-05/.... The limits are much less important than data exchange and verification (including on-site inspections). The US seems prepared to bear the political cost of the upload anyway. 5/
As fully expected, the US nuclear community is strongly against adhering to New START limits after Feb 2026. "Two peer competitors" etc. But the Russian proposal is vague enough to leave some room for US upload: "a similar spirit" does not have to mean full reciprocity. 1/
October 1, 2025 at 9:12 AM
As fully expected, the US nuclear community is strongly against adhering to New START limits after Feb 2026. "Two peer competitors" etc. But the Russian proposal is vague enough to leave some room for US upload: "a similar spirit" does not have to mean full reciprocity. 1/
To produce pits the US has about 30 tonnes of unobligated Pu (79.7-49.4 fissilematerials.org/countries/un...). Only about half of this is in active weapons, so the US could double its weapons stock. It's the manufacturing capacity, not the availability of Pu that is the problem. 3/
September 30, 2025 at 12:27 PM
To produce pits the US has about 30 tonnes of unobligated Pu (79.7-49.4 fissilematerials.org/countries/un...). Only about half of this is in active weapons, so the US could double its weapons stock. It's the manufacturing capacity, not the availability of Pu that is the problem. 3/
The material was to be disposed via the "dilute and dispose" route, but Trump stopped it by the 23 May 2025 "Reinvigorating" executive order. In any event, this program has nothing to do with the pit manufacturing schedule. 2/
September 30, 2025 at 12:27 PM
The material was to be disposed via the "dilute and dispose" route, but Trump stopped it by the 23 May 2025 "Reinvigorating" executive order. In any event, this program has nothing to do with the pit manufacturing schedule. 2/
A somewhat confused piece in Politico re US plutonium by
@zcolman.bsky.social. These 25 tonnes of plutonium in pits is the material identified as surplus 30 years ago, no way it "plays a central role in the US nuclear weapons stockpile" (pits are not "highly radioactive" by the way) 1/
@zcolman.bsky.social. These 25 tonnes of plutonium in pits is the material identified as surplus 30 years ago, no way it "plays a central role in the US nuclear weapons stockpile" (pits are not "highly radioactive" by the way) 1/
September 30, 2025 at 12:27 PM
A somewhat confused piece in Politico re US plutonium by
@zcolman.bsky.social. These 25 tonnes of plutonium in pits is the material identified as surplus 30 years ago, no way it "plays a central role in the US nuclear weapons stockpile" (pits are not "highly radioactive" by the way) 1/
@zcolman.bsky.social. These 25 tonnes of plutonium in pits is the material identified as surplus 30 years ago, no way it "plays a central role in the US nuclear weapons stockpile" (pits are not "highly radioactive" by the way) 1/
Here is Al Mauroni's (very interesting) Substack post substack.com/home/post/p-... and here is the USAF document doctrine.af.mil/Portals/61/d... (In the document's metadata, the author is listed as "Buff, Grandpa." Google tells me it's a B-52 reference.) 2/2
September 29, 2025 at 7:22 AM
Here is Al Mauroni's (very interesting) Substack post substack.com/home/post/p-... and here is the USAF document doctrine.af.mil/Portals/61/d... (In the document's metadata, the author is listed as "Buff, Grandpa." Google tells me it's a B-52 reference.) 2/2
Verification is a vital part of most arms control treaties. But strict verification can exist outside of treaties. New @unidir.org report introduces a concept of 'demonstrative verification' that allows states to prove compliance with their obligations unidir.org/dv
September 24, 2025 at 9:18 AM
Verification is a vital part of most arms control treaties. But strict verification can exist outside of treaties. New @unidir.org report introduces a concept of 'demonstrative verification' that allows states to prove compliance with their obligations unidir.org/dv
Right now. Washington, DC. Oh well...
August 30, 2025 at 5:50 PM
Right now. Washington, DC. Oh well...
Am I the only one who gets annoyed by this kind of stuff ChatGPT 5 adds to its answers? (I asked for an image of an ICBM silo)
August 17, 2025 at 7:19 PM
Am I the only one who gets annoyed by this kind of stuff ChatGPT 5 adds to its answers? (I asked for an image of an ICBM silo)
You haven't read the piece have you?
August 17, 2025 at 2:34 PM
You haven't read the piece have you?
Tell me you have no idea how things in Russia work without saying you have no idea...
August 10, 2025 at 11:49 AM
Tell me you have no idea how things in Russia work without saying you have no idea...