François Heisbourg
@fheisbourg.bsky.social
Senior adviser (Europe), IISS,
Special adviser, Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique
Special adviser, Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique
Reposted by François Heisbourg
A source in President Zelensky’s circle told RBC-Ukraine that there will be no announcement of elections while security is not ensured, commenting on a Financial Times report about planning presidential elections and a referendum. #Ukraine
Ukraine has begun planning presidential elections and a referendum, the Financial Times reports. The Trump administration is demanding both votes be held by May 15 or Ukraine could lose US security guarantees. Zelensky intends to announce elections on Feb 24. #Ukraine
February 11, 2026 at 7:59 AM
A source in President Zelensky’s circle told RBC-Ukraine that there will be no announcement of elections while security is not ensured, commenting on a Financial Times report about planning presidential elections and a referendum. #Ukraine
SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1449
1. US pressuring 🇺🇦: security guarantees conditioned by peace deal referendum and presidential elex held by 15 May
2. Lukoil Volgograd refinery hit
3. 15 leakers out of ~80 Shaheds
1. US pressuring 🇺🇦: security guarantees conditioned by peace deal referendum and presidential elex held by 15 May
2. Lukoil Volgograd refinery hit
3. 15 leakers out of ~80 Shaheds
February 11, 2026 at 7:59 AM
SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1449
1. US pressuring 🇺🇦: security guarantees conditioned by peace deal referendum and presidential elex held by 15 May
2. Lukoil Volgograd refinery hit
3. 15 leakers out of ~80 Shaheds
1. US pressuring 🇺🇦: security guarantees conditioned by peace deal referendum and presidential elex held by 15 May
2. Lukoil Volgograd refinery hit
3. 15 leakers out of ~80 Shaheds
US not subjecting Russia to similar obligations
The Ukrainian president’s move comes amid pressure by the White House to hold both votes by May 15 or risk losing proposed US security guarantees. ft.trib.al/7CayP4W
February 11, 2026 at 7:54 AM
US not subjecting Russia to similar obligations
Reposted by François Heisbourg
Trump told police chief in 2006 that ‘everyone’ knew about Epstein, FBI document says https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-told-police-chief-in-2006-that-everyone-knew-about-epstein-fbi-document-says/
Trump told police chief in 2006 that ‘everyone’ knew about Epstein, FBI document says
Report of 2019 interview with Palm Beach police chief says now-president, who repeatedly claimed he knew nothing of Epstein's crimes, said 'thank goodness you're stopping him'
www.timesofisrael.com
February 11, 2026 at 7:16 AM
Trump told police chief in 2006 that ‘everyone’ knew about Epstein, FBI document says https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-told-police-chief-in-2006-that-everyone-knew-about-epstein-fbi-document-says/
Reposted by François Heisbourg
‚Ukraine has begun planning presidential elections alongside a referendum on any peace deal with Russia, after the Trump administration pressed Kyiv to hold both votes by May 15 or risk losing proposed US security guarantees.‘ giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Zelenskyy planning elections in Ukraine and vote on peace deal
Trump administration has pressured Ukrainian leader to hold both votes by May 15 or risk losing security guarantees
giftarticle.ft.com
February 11, 2026 at 7:19 AM
‚Ukraine has begun planning presidential elections alongside a referendum on any peace deal with Russia, after the Trump administration pressed Kyiv to hold both votes by May 15 or risk losing proposed US security guarantees.‘ giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1448
1. Syrskiy: 🇷🇺 annual refining capability down 19%. 🇺🇦 downs 21.7k aerial targets in January
1. 13 leakers out of 80 Shaheds
1. Syrskiy: 🇷🇺 annual refining capability down 19%. 🇺🇦 downs 21.7k aerial targets in January
1. 13 leakers out of 80 Shaheds
February 10, 2026 at 9:33 AM
SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1448
1. Syrskiy: 🇷🇺 annual refining capability down 19%. 🇺🇦 downs 21.7k aerial targets in January
1. 13 leakers out of 80 Shaheds
1. Syrskiy: 🇷🇺 annual refining capability down 19%. 🇺🇦 downs 21.7k aerial targets in January
1. 13 leakers out of 80 Shaheds
Reposted by François Heisbourg
🔥 Ukraine's long-range strikes reduced Russian oil processing by 19% or 53.4 million tons, — Syrskyi
He also said that as a result of the Ukrainian Air Force's attacks on Russian airfields in January, the enemy reduced its airstrikes on Ukrainian territory by 5%.
He also said that as a result of the Ukrainian Air Force's attacks on Russian airfields in January, the enemy reduced its airstrikes on Ukrainian territory by 5%.
February 10, 2026 at 8:23 AM
🔥 Ukraine's long-range strikes reduced Russian oil processing by 19% or 53.4 million tons, — Syrskyi
He also said that as a result of the Ukrainian Air Force's attacks on Russian airfields in January, the enemy reduced its airstrikes on Ukrainian territory by 5%.
He also said that as a result of the Ukrainian Air Force's attacks on Russian airfields in January, the enemy reduced its airstrikes on Ukrainian territory by 5%.
Reposted by François Heisbourg
The European Parliament will vote this week on a €90bn EU loan for Ukraine, with the ballot moved forward to Wednesday. Parliament spokesperson Delphine Colard said there is agreement among political groups. Politico reports major blocs will fast track the vote, securing the needed majority #Ukraine
February 10, 2026 at 8:39 AM
The European Parliament will vote this week on a €90bn EU loan for Ukraine, with the ballot moved forward to Wednesday. Parliament spokesperson Delphine Colard said there is agreement among political groups. Politico reports major blocs will fast track the vote, securing the needed majority #Ukraine
Reposted by François Heisbourg
The EU is hatching an unprecedented plan that could give Ukraine partial membership in the bloc as early as next year.
Based on conversations with 10 officials and diplomats, we have identified five steps that could make it happen 👇
Based on conversations with 10 officials and diplomats, we have identified five steps that could make it happen 👇
5 steps to get Ukraine into the EU in 2027
Plans to bring Kyiv into the tent before it has completed all reforms and to remove Hungary’s veto signal a sense of urgency in Brussels.
www.politico.eu
February 10, 2026 at 8:39 AM
The EU is hatching an unprecedented plan that could give Ukraine partial membership in the bloc as early as next year.
Based on conversations with 10 officials and diplomats, we have identified five steps that could make it happen 👇
Based on conversations with 10 officials and diplomats, we have identified five steps that could make it happen 👇
Reposted by François Heisbourg
Russian sources describe heavy fighting near Huliaipole, claiming several Ukrainian assaults were repelled. They say in Ternuvate Ukrainian forces broke through, and communication problems are affecting operations. "The situation is still difficult, the enemy is advancing, and they have successes."
February 10, 2026 at 8:47 AM
Russian sources describe heavy fighting near Huliaipole, claiming several Ukrainian assaults were repelled. They say in Ternuvate Ukrainian forces broke through, and communication problems are affecting operations. "The situation is still difficult, the enemy is advancing, and they have successes."
Reposted by François Heisbourg
LIVE: Cabinet meeting at Downing Street, London youtube.com/live/5MO7JmI...
LIVE: Cabinet meeting at Downing Street, London
YouTube video by Reuters
youtube.com
February 10, 2026 at 8:43 AM
LIVE: Cabinet meeting at Downing Street, London youtube.com/live/5MO7JmI...
SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1447
1. 90 Shaheds launched. 23 leakers
2. 11 Iskander-M launched , several intercepted.
No big change in ground war attrition
1. 90 Shaheds launched. 23 leakers
2. 11 Iskander-M launched , several intercepted.
No big change in ground war attrition
February 9, 2026 at 8:52 AM
SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1447
1. 90 Shaheds launched. 23 leakers
2. 11 Iskander-M launched , several intercepted.
No big change in ground war attrition
1. 90 Shaheds launched. 23 leakers
2. 11 Iskander-M launched , several intercepted.
No big change in ground war attrition
SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1446
1. US presses for peace deal by summer and/or US/🇷🇺 transaction. A 3d trilateral in US next week
2. Rzeszów (POLLOGHUB) & Lublin airports shut due to next door🇷🇺 military activity
3. Neptune missiles hit Bryansk oblast energy targets
4. Rosneft Balashov (Saratov) oil depot hit
1. US presses for peace deal by summer and/or US/🇷🇺 transaction. A 3d trilateral in US next week
2. Rzeszów (POLLOGHUB) & Lublin airports shut due to next door🇷🇺 military activity
3. Neptune missiles hit Bryansk oblast energy targets
4. Rosneft Balashov (Saratov) oil depot hit
February 8, 2026 at 10:06 AM
SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1446
1. US presses for peace deal by summer and/or US/🇷🇺 transaction. A 3d trilateral in US next week
2. Rzeszów (POLLOGHUB) & Lublin airports shut due to next door🇷🇺 military activity
3. Neptune missiles hit Bryansk oblast energy targets
4. Rosneft Balashov (Saratov) oil depot hit
1. US presses for peace deal by summer and/or US/🇷🇺 transaction. A 3d trilateral in US next week
2. Rzeszów (POLLOGHUB) & Lublin airports shut due to next door🇷🇺 military activity
3. Neptune missiles hit Bryansk oblast energy targets
4. Rosneft Balashov (Saratov) oil depot hit
Reposted by François Heisbourg
A Rosneft oil depot in Balashov, Saratov region, was attacked by drones overnight on February 7, according to analysis by ASTRA. The strike hit the Balashov oil depot, which Ukraine’s General Staff had previously reported as a target. Local residents reported firefighting activity near the site.
February 8, 2026 at 9:06 AM
A Rosneft oil depot in Balashov, Saratov region, was attacked by drones overnight on February 7, according to analysis by ASTRA. The strike hit the Balashov oil depot, which Ukraine’s General Staff had previously reported as a target. Local residents reported firefighting activity near the site.
Reposted by François Heisbourg
President Trump has not imposed any effective sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine during a year of his second term, the BBC reported. Experts say attempts to pressure the ruble were minimal, while Russia’s oil revenue fell due to Europe, not the US. #Ukraine
February 8, 2026 at 9:40 AM
President Trump has not imposed any effective sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine during a year of his second term, the BBC reported. Experts say attempts to pressure the ruble were minimal, while Russia’s oil revenue fell due to Europe, not the US. #Ukraine
Reposted by François Heisbourg
⚡️Zelensky says Russia presented $12 trillion economic plan to US, called 'Dmitriev package.'
President Volodymyr Zelensky described it as a proposed framework for large-scale U.S.-Russia economic cooperation.
President Volodymyr Zelensky described it as a proposed framework for large-scale U.S.-Russia economic cooperation.
Zelensky warns of 'risk' US, Russia could strike bilateral deals on Ukraine without Kyiv
"We clearly state that Ukraine will not support even potential agreements about us without us," President Volodymyr Zelensky said.
kyivindependent.com
February 7, 2026 at 9:30 AM
⚡️Zelensky says Russia presented $12 trillion economic plan to US, called 'Dmitriev package.'
President Volodymyr Zelensky described it as a proposed framework for large-scale U.S.-Russia economic cooperation.
President Volodymyr Zelensky described it as a proposed framework for large-scale U.S.-Russia economic cooperation.
Reposted by François Heisbourg
⚡️Ukraine's Neptune missiles strike energy facilities in Russia's Bryansk Oblast, governor claims.
"As a result of the attack, power supply was disrupted in seven municipalities," Bryansk Oblast Governor Alexander Bogomaz claimed.
"As a result of the attack, power supply was disrupted in seven municipalities," Bryansk Oblast Governor Alexander Bogomaz claimed.
Ukraine's Neptune missiles strike energy facilities in Russia's Bryansk Oblast, governor claims
"The Armed Forces of Ukraine attacked our region using long-range Neptune missiles and HIMARS multiple rocket launcher systems," Bryansk Oblast Governor Alexander Bogomaz claimed. "As a result of the ...
kyivindependent.com
February 7, 2026 at 8:01 PM
⚡️Ukraine's Neptune missiles strike energy facilities in Russia's Bryansk Oblast, governor claims.
"As a result of the attack, power supply was disrupted in seven municipalities," Bryansk Oblast Governor Alexander Bogomaz claimed.
"As a result of the attack, power supply was disrupted in seven municipalities," Bryansk Oblast Governor Alexander Bogomaz claimed.
Reposted by François Heisbourg
Russia's FSB claims the suspect in the attack on GRU General Alekseyev was extradited from the UAE – 66-year-old Lyubomir Korba. Two accomplices were named. No footage of the attack or wounded general has surfaced.
February 8, 2026 at 8:38 AM
Russia's FSB claims the suspect in the attack on GRU General Alekseyev was extradited from the UAE – 66-year-old Lyubomir Korba. Two accomplices were named. No footage of the attack or wounded general has surfaced.
Reposted by François Heisbourg
🇺🇦❗️ Zelensky: Russia launched more than 2,000 attack drones, 1,200 guided aerial bombs, and 116 missiles of various types at our cities and villages in just this past week.
The world must not turn a blind eye to Russian attacks.
The world must not turn a blind eye to Russian attacks.
February 8, 2026 at 9:15 AM
🇺🇦❗️ Zelensky: Russia launched more than 2,000 attack drones, 1,200 guided aerial bombs, and 116 missiles of various types at our cities and villages in just this past week.
The world must not turn a blind eye to Russian attacks.
The world must not turn a blind eye to Russian attacks.
Reposted by François Heisbourg
Excellent diagnosis. Problem is that US under old Trump and young Vance will hinder European access to NATO collective assets such as interoperability, command structure including SACEUR, air defence , rapid response, nuclear sharing which EU can't readily emulate or replace. This will be tough.
Nato needs ‘road map’ for US pivot away from Europe, says Finland
https://www.ft.com/content/fcc1daf5-2d49-4408-9181-2dffc1b1fe94
https://www.ft.com/content/fcc1daf5-2d49-4408-9181-2dffc1b1fe94
Nato needs ‘road map’ for US pivot away from Europe, says Finland
Defence minister sees need to avoid disorganised shift that Russia could exploit
www.ft.com
April 4, 2025 at 8:59 AM
Excellent diagnosis. Problem is that US under old Trump and young Vance will hinder European access to NATO collective assets such as interoperability, command structure including SACEUR, air defence , rapid response, nuclear sharing which EU can't readily emulate or replace. This will be tough.
SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1445
1. Two bad nights countrywide
Friday: 200 Shahed, 22 leakers
0/2 Kinzhal, 0/5 Kh-59/59
Saturday: 250 Shahed, 44 leakers
14/21 Kh-101
10/16 Kalibr
0/2 Zircon
24 missiles down out of 39
2. Redkino chemical processes plant hit & ablaze (Tver oblast)
1. Two bad nights countrywide
Friday: 200 Shahed, 22 leakers
0/2 Kinzhal, 0/5 Kh-59/59
Saturday: 250 Shahed, 44 leakers
14/21 Kh-101
10/16 Kalibr
0/2 Zircon
24 missiles down out of 39
2. Redkino chemical processes plant hit & ablaze (Tver oblast)
February 7, 2026 at 9:17 AM
SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1445
1. Two bad nights countrywide
Friday: 200 Shahed, 22 leakers
0/2 Kinzhal, 0/5 Kh-59/59
Saturday: 250 Shahed, 44 leakers
14/21 Kh-101
10/16 Kalibr
0/2 Zircon
24 missiles down out of 39
2. Redkino chemical processes plant hit & ablaze (Tver oblast)
1. Two bad nights countrywide
Friday: 200 Shahed, 22 leakers
0/2 Kinzhal, 0/5 Kh-59/59
Saturday: 250 Shahed, 44 leakers
14/21 Kh-101
10/16 Kalibr
0/2 Zircon
24 missiles down out of 39
2. Redkino chemical processes plant hit & ablaze (Tver oblast)
Reposted by François Heisbourg
Groenland: les consulats de France et du Canada, qui s'opposent au projet de l'administration Trump de prendre le contrôle du Groenland, ont été inaugurés vendredi dans la capitale de l'immense territoire arctique, ont constaté des journalistes de l'AFP.
February 6, 2026 at 7:34 PM
Groenland: les consulats de France et du Canada, qui s'opposent au projet de l'administration Trump de prendre le contrôle du Groenland, ont été inaugurés vendredi dans la capitale de l'immense territoire arctique, ont constaté des journalistes de l'AFP.
Reposted by François Heisbourg
The German army brigade in Lithuania is not under fire, but it is under hybrid attack. Soldiers report mysterious phone calls, and drones appear to be spying on manoeuvres. How should the Bundeswehr and NATO respond?
No front line: Russia's hybrid pressure on German army in Lithuania
The German army brigade in Lithuania is not under fire, but it is under hybrid attack. Soldiers report mysterious phone calls, and drones appear to be spying on manoeuvres. How should the Bundeswehr and NATO respond?
l.euronews.com
February 7, 2026 at 7:41 AM
The German army brigade in Lithuania is not under fire, but it is under hybrid attack. Soldiers report mysterious phone calls, and drones appear to be spying on manoeuvres. How should the Bundeswehr and NATO respond?
Reposted by François Heisbourg
Russia fired over 400 drones and around 40 missiles at Ukraine overnight targeting energy infrastructure according to President Zelensky. Energy facilities were hit across eight regions along with homes and a school.
February 7, 2026 at 8:27 AM
Russia fired over 400 drones and around 40 missiles at Ukraine overnight targeting energy infrastructure according to President Zelensky. Energy facilities were hit across eight regions along with homes and a school.
1st deputy head of GRU
⚡️ BREAKING: Russian General Vladimir Alekseev shot multiple times in Moscow, Russian media reports.
He has been rushed to hospital and the gunman fled the scene, according to reports.
He has been rushed to hospital and the gunman fled the scene, according to reports.
BREAKING: Russian General Vladimir Alekseev shot multiple times in Moscow, Russian media reports
He has been rushed to hospital and the gunman fled the scene, according to reports.
kyivindependent.com
February 6, 2026 at 10:17 AM
1st deputy head of GRU