François Heisbourg
fheisbourg.bsky.social
François Heisbourg
@fheisbourg.bsky.social

Senior adviser (Europe), IISS,
Special adviser, Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique

François Heisbourg is currently Senior Advisor for Europe at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) and Special Advisor at the Paris-based Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique. He was director of the IISS from 1987 to 1992 and its chairman from 2001 to 2018. .. more

Political science 72%
Economics 21%
Russian military blogger Rybar writes that the situation in Chasiv Yar remains complicated, citing “false reports” made months ago. According to him, Ukrainian forces still hold parts of the western Shevchenko district and are counterattacking toward the city center. #Ukraine

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1453

1. Rubio heads to Vanceland 🇸🇰 🇭🇺 after bilateral with Zelensky aA

2. Port of Taman and oil depot of Volna (Kranodar Krai) hit. Landing craft sunk in Crimea

3. 15 leakers/~50 Shahed

En direct : le port russe de Taman endommagé par une attaque de drones ukrainiens, selon la Russie
En direct : le port russe de Taman endommagé par une attaque de drones ukrainiens, selon la Russie
En Russie, la région de Krasnodar a été visée par une importante attaque de drones ukrainiens et le port de Taman a été endommagé, selon des responsables russes. Suivez la situation en direct.
f24.my
Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny was poisoned by the Kremlin with a rare and lethal toxin found in the skin of poison dart frogs, five European countries have said. It's not the first time the country has been accused of poisoning its enemies.
Frog toxins the latest poison identified in long line of Russian chemical attacks
Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny was poisoned by the Kremlin with a rare and lethal toxin found in the skin of poison dart frogs, five European countries have said. It's not the first time the country has been accused of poisoning its enemies.
www.abc.net.au
The Rubio speech really is appalling, and if you haven’t read it yet, you should.

www.state.gov/releases/off...
⚡️Ukraine destroys half of Russia's 'key' Pantsir air defense systems, security service says.

The Alpha unit of Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) destroyed half of Russia's stockpile of the coveted Pantsir air defense system, the SBU announced Feb. 14.
Ukraine destroys half of Russia's 'key' Pantsir air defense systems, security service says
The Alpha unit of Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) destroyed half of Russia's stockpile of the coveted Pantsir air defense system, the SBU announced Feb. 14.
kyivindependent.com
1) There is no more shared Munich view. The MSC has grown a lot, and this year, I felt like it has become impossible to identify any shared “Munich view” - the vibe, the feeling in the hallway - just because there are so many events now, so many people, it no longer feels coherent.

Good cop Rubio; Bad cop Vance. A routine of sorts, even if not deliberate
Good piece. The idea that Rubio is the 'reasonable one' and Vance is the thug is rather like thinking that the interrogator who offers sympathy and a cigarette is your ally against the knuckle-cracking sadist.
Free piece just released. Marco Rubio called on tolerant, democratic, liberal Europe to destroy itself and embrace a Trump-like future. He received a standing ovation and we are told some people are reassured. If so, Europe will deserve everything coming its way. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
⚡️Zelensky meets US Secretary of State Rubio at Munich Security Conference.

President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Munich on Feb. 14, a day after Trump urged Zelensky to "get moving" in order to secure a peace deal with Russia.
Zelensky meets US Secretary of State Rubio at Munich Security Conference
President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference on Feb. 14, Presidential Office Spokesperson Serhii Nykyforov told the Ky...
kyivindependent.com
Good piece. The idea that Rubio is the 'reasonable one' and Vance is the thug is rather like thinking that the interrogator who offers sympathy and a cigarette is your ally against the knuckle-cracking sadist.
Free piece just released. Marco Rubio called on tolerant, democratic, liberal Europe to destroy itself and embrace a Trump-like future. He received a standing ovation and we are told some people are reassured. If so, Europe will deserve everything coming its way. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Rubio Calls For The End Of A Tolerant, Democratic Europe And The Crowd Goes Wild
Just over an hour ago, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called for the end of a tolerant, democratic Europe and its break-up into a disparate group of smaller, Trumpist states, and the Europeans in t...
open.substack.com
Zelenskiy says US too often asks Ukraine, not Russia, for concessions reut.rs/4rk9w1u
Zelenskiy says US too often asks Ukraine, not Russia, for concessions
Ukrainian, Russian and American delegations are due to meet in Geneva on Tuesday.
reut.rs
Alex Stubb on EU competitiveness - excellent

"Economists look at crude GDP... but I look at our Gini coefficients.. & whether it's justice, least corrupt, open, welfare, environment, open media, gender equality.. I don't buy the argument we're doing bad. I'm actually bloody happy"

MSC '26
BREAKING: European leaders say Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who died in 2024, was poisoned in prison.
Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny was likely fatally poisoned in prison, European leaders say
European leaders said they are confident Navalny was poisoned with a toxin found in South American poison dart frogs.
cbsn.ws

So now he is off to Slovakia and Hungary. A Vancian Europe
Speaking at #MSC26 today, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio made no apology for the Trump administration’s at times harsh criticisms of Europe.

But he took a conciliatory tone — stressing that the U.S. wants to cooperate with Europe to “revitalize an old friendship.”
Marco Rubio to Europe: ‘We belong together’
Top U.S. diplomat backs new partnership with Europe as he reiterates MAGA talking points.
www.politico.eu

Prochaines escapes de Rubio: la Slovaquie et la Hongrie d' Orbàn. Eueope forte ?
A Munich, Rubio prône une restauration de l’ordre mondial avec une Europe «forte»
A Munich, Rubio prône une restauration de l’ordre mondial avec une Europe «forte»
Le chef de la diplomatie américaine a rejeté toute division entre l’Europe et les Etats-Unis ce samedi 14 février, devant la Conférence de Munich sur la sécurité. Il appelle à une «alliance revigorée» entre les Etats-Unis et l’Europe.
www.liberation.fr
Speaking at #MSC26 today, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio made no apology for the Trump administration’s at times harsh criticisms of Europe.

But he took a conciliatory tone — stressing that the U.S. wants to cooperate with Europe to “revitalize an old friendship.”
Marco Rubio to Europe: ‘We belong together’
Top U.S. diplomat backs new partnership with Europe as he reiterates MAGA talking points.
www.politico.eu

Sounds right. Unlike Mark Twain'w line on Wagner's music, Rubio's music isn't as good as it sounds
The only comment I have on the Rubio speech is that I don’t want to spend too much time on the Rubio speech.
Nothing is changing with regards to US policy. We don’t need to do a line-by-line analysis.
Rubio’s speech at Munich was a massive free dose of fentanyl to an addict desperate not to get clean. And it worked. Europe is full of suckers.
The only comment I have on the Rubio speech is that I don’t want to spend too much time on the Rubio speech.
Nothing is changing with regards to US policy. We don’t need to do a line-by-line analysis.
That‘s a bit like me giving a speech outlining Austrian foreign policy. Not anchored to reality.
Ukraine’s most famous writer reflects on life under bombardment, fading solidarity and the risks of accepting a hasty peace deal.
‘Capitulation Camouflaged as Peace’: Andrey Kurkov’s Warning on Ukraine
Ukraine’s most famous writer reflects on life under bombardment, fading solidarity and the risks of accepting a hasty peace deal.
bloom.bg

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1452

1. The joy of not being Vance: Rubio gets standing ovation at #MSC2026
2. Rubio apparently to skip public discussion with Zelensky at 11h45CET at ##MSC2026
3. Third US 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 trilateral in Geneva 17-18 FEB
4. 16 leakers out of 70 Shahed

Thanking Daddy for allowing Europe to buy US military kit
Distrust towards the current US administration has undermined Finns' overall confidence in Nato, according to one foreign policy specialist.
USU: Finns losing confidence in Nato security guarantees
Distrust towards the current US administration has undermined Finns' overall confidence in Nato, according to one foreign policy specialist.
yle.fi
CNN @cnn.com · 1d
Roughly half a dozen Democrats with potential presidential ambitions in 2028 are descending on the annual Munich conference, a frequent stop for politicians to test the foreign policy waters and elevate their own profiles on the international stage ahead of White House runs.
As Trump tests alliances, Democrats with 2028 ambitions offer reassurance at Munich conference | CNN Politics
California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez were among the high-profile Democrats looking to counter President Donald Trump at the Munich Security Conference this week as they outli...
www.cnn.com
⚡️Over 177,000 Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine identified by media investigation.

Russian independent media outlet Mediazona, in collaboration with the BBC Russian service, has confirmed the identities of 177,433 Russian military personnel killed in Ukraine.
Over 177,000 Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine identified by media investigation
Russian independent media outlet Mediazona, in collaboration with the BBC Russian service, has confirmed the identities of 177,433 Russian military personnel killed in Ukraine.
kyivindependent.com
⚡️Zelensky meets with Iranian opposition figure Reza Pahlavi.

President Volodymyr Zelensky met with Reza Pahlavi, Iranian opposition figure and exiled son of the country's last monarch, on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference on Feb. 13.
Zelensky meets with Iranian opposition figure Reza Pahlavi
President Volodymyr Zelensky met with Reza Pahlavi, Iranian opposition figure and exiled son of the country's last monarch, on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference on Feb. 13.
kyivindependent.com