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François Heisbourg

François Heisbourg

@fheisbourg.bsky.social

12K followers 160 following 1.7K posts

Senior adviser (Europe), IISS,
Special adviser, Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique

François Heisbourg is currently Senior Advisor for Europe at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) and Special Advisor at the Paris-based Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique. He was director of the IISS from 1987 to 1992 and its chairman from 2001 to 2018. .. more

Political science 72%

Economics 21%

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Posts Replies Media Videos

François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 14h

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1449

1. US pressuring 🇺🇦: security guarantees conditioned by peace deal referendum and presidential elex held by 15 May

2. Lukoil Volgograd refinery hit

3. 15 leakers out of ~80 Shaheds

Reposted by François Heisbourg

NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 14h

Ukraine has begun planning presidential elections and a referendum, the Financial Times reports. The Trump administration is demanding both votes be held by May 15 or Ukraine could lose US security guarantees. Zelensky intends to announce elections on Feb 24. #Ukraine

François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 14h

US not subjecting Russia to similar obligations

Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 16h

The Ukrainian president’s move comes amid pressure by the White House to hold both votes by May 15 or risk losing proposed US security guarantees. ft.trib.al/7CayP4W

Reposted by Holger Nehring, François Heisbourg

Franz-Stefan Gady @hoanssolo.bsky.social · 15h

‚Ukraine has begun planning presidential elections alongside a referendum on any peace deal with Russia, after the Trump administration pressed Kyiv to hold both votes by May 15 or risk losing proposed US security guarantees.‘ giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

Zelenskyy planning elections in Ukraine and vote on peace deal

Trump administration has pressured Ukrainian leader to hold both votes by May 15 or risk losing security guarantees

giftarticle.ft.com

Reposted by François Heisbourg

The Times of Israel @timesofisrael.com · 15h

Trump told police chief in 2006 that ‘everyone’ knew about Epstein, FBI document says https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-told-police-chief-in-2006-that-everyone-knew-about-epstein-fbi-document-says/

Trump told police chief in 2006 that ‘everyone’ knew about Epstein, FBI document says

Report of 2019 interview with Palm Beach police chief says now-president, who repeatedly claimed he knew nothing of Epstein's crimes, said 'thank goodness you're stopping him'

www.timesofisrael.com

Reposted by François Heisbourg

Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 16h

The Ukrainian president’s move comes amid pressure by the White House to hold both votes by May 15 or risk losing proposed US security guarantees. ft.trib.al/7CayP4W

François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 1d

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1448

1. Syrskiy: 🇷🇺 annual refining capability down 19%. 🇺🇦 downs 21.7k aerial targets in January

1. 13 leakers out of 80 Shaheds

Reposted by François Heisbourg

NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 1d

Russian sources describe heavy fighting near Huliaipole, claiming several Ukrainian assaults were repelled. They say in Ternuvate Ukrainian forces broke through, and communication problems are affecting operations. "The situation is still difficult, the enemy is advancing, and they have successes."

Reposted by François Heisbourg

Reuters @reuters.com · 1d

LIVE: Cabinet meeting at Downing Street, London youtube.com/live/5MO7JmI...

LIVE: Cabinet meeting at Downing Street, London

YouTube video by Reuters

Reposted by François Heisbourg, Nicolai von Ondarza

POLITICO Europe @politico.eu · 1d

The EU is hatching an unprecedented plan that could give Ukraine partial membership in the bloc as early as next year.

Based on conversations with 10 officials and diplomats, we have identified five steps that could make it happen 👇

5 steps to get Ukraine into the EU in 2027

Plans to bring Kyiv into the tent before it has completed all reforms and to remove Hungary’s veto signal a sense of urgency in Brussels.

www.politico.eu

Reposted by François Heisbourg

NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 1d

The European Parliament will vote this week on a €90bn EU loan for Ukraine, with the ballot moved forward to Wednesday. Parliament spokesperson Delphine Colard said there is agreement among political groups. Politico reports major blocs will fast track the vote, securing the needed majority #Ukraine

Reposted by François Heisbourg

MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 @maks23.bsky.social · 1d

🔥 Ukraine's long-range strikes reduced Russian oil processing by 19% or 53.4 million tons, — Syrskyi

He also said that as a result of the Ukrainian Air Force's attacks on Russian airfields in January, the enemy reduced its airstrikes on Ukrainian territory by 5%.

François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 2d

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1447

1. 90 Shaheds launched. 23 leakers

2. 11 Iskander-M launched , several intercepted.

No big change in ground war attrition

François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 3d

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1446

1. US presses for peace deal by summer and/or US/🇷🇺 transaction. A 3d trilateral in US next week

2. Rzeszów (POLLOGHUB) & Lublin airports shut due to next door🇷🇺 military activity

3. Neptune missiles hit Bryansk oblast energy targets

4. Rosneft Balashov (Saratov) oil depot hit

Reposted by François Heisbourg

NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 3d

President Trump has not imposed any effective sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine during a year of his second term, the BBC reported. Experts say attempts to pressure the ruble were minimal, while Russia’s oil revenue fell due to Europe, not the US. #Ukraine

Reposted by François Heisbourg

The Ukrainian Review @theukrainianreview.bsky.social · 3d

🇺🇦❗️ Zelensky: Russia launched more than 2,000 attack drones, 1,200 guided aerial bombs, and 116 missiles of various types at our cities and villages in just this past week.

The world must not turn a blind eye to Russian attacks.

Reposted by François Heisbourg

NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 3d

A Rosneft oil depot in Balashov, Saratov region, was attacked by drones overnight on February 7, according to analysis by ASTRA. The strike hit the Balashov oil depot, which Ukraine’s General Staff had previously reported as a target. Local residents reported firefighting activity near the site.

Reposted by François Heisbourg

WarTranslated (Dmitri) @wartranslated.bsky.social · 3d

Russia's FSB claims the suspect in the attack on GRU General Alekseyev was extradited from the UAE – 66-year-old Lyubomir Korba. Two accomplices were named. No footage of the attack or wounded general has surfaced.

Reposted by François Heisbourg

The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 4d

⚡️Ukraine's Neptune missiles strike energy facilities in Russia's Bryansk Oblast, governor claims.

"As a result of the attack, power supply was disrupted in seven municipalities," Bryansk Oblast Governor Alexander Bogomaz claimed.

Ukraine's Neptune missiles strike energy facilities in Russia's Bryansk Oblast, governor claims

"The Armed Forces of Ukraine attacked our region using long-range Neptune missiles and HIMARS multiple rocket launcher systems," Bryansk Oblast Governor Alexander Bogomaz claimed. "As a result of the ...

kyivindependent.com

Reposted by Steve Peers, Iikka Korhonen, François Heisbourg

The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 4d

⚡️Zelensky says Russia presented $12 trillion economic plan to US, called 'Dmitriev package.'

President Volodymyr Zelensky described it as a proposed framework for large-scale U.S.-Russia economic cooperation.

Zelensky warns of 'risk' US, Russia could strike bilateral deals on Ukraine without Kyiv

"We clearly state that Ukraine will not support even potential agreements about us without us," President Volodymyr Zelensky said.

kyivindependent.com

François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 4d

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1445

1. Two bad nights countrywide

Friday: 200 Shahed, 22 leakers
0/2 Kinzhal, 0/5 Kh-59/59

Saturday: 250 Shahed, 44 leakers
14/21 Kh-101
10/16 Kalibr
0/2 Zircon
24 missiles down out of 39

2. Redkino chemical processes plant hit & ablaze (Tver oblast)

Reposted by François Heisbourg, François Guesnet

WarTranslated (Dmitri) @wartranslated.bsky.social · 4d

Russia fired over 400 drones and around 40 missiles at Ukraine overnight targeting energy infrastructure according to President Zelensky. Energy facilities were hit across eight regions along with homes and a school.

Reposted by François Heisbourg, Nicolai von Ondarza

Euronews @euronews.com · 4d

The German army brigade in Lithuania is not under fire, but it is under hybrid attack. Soldiers report mysterious phone calls, and drones appear to be spying on manoeuvres. How should the Bundeswehr and NATO respond?

No front line: Russia's hybrid pressure on German army in Lithuania

The German army brigade in Lithuania is not under fire, but it is under hybrid attack. Soldiers report mysterious phone calls, and drones appear to be spying on manoeuvres. How should the Bundeswehr and NATO respond?

Reposted by François Heisbourg

Agence France-Presse @afp.com · 5d

Groenland: les consulats de France et du Canada, qui s'opposent au projet de l'administration Trump de prendre le contrôle du Groenland, ont été inaugurés vendredi dans la capitale de l'immense territoire arctique, ont constaté des journalistes de l'AFP.

François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 5d

1st deputy head of GRU

The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 5d

⚡️ BREAKING: Russian General Vladimir Alekseev shot multiple times in Moscow, Russian media reports.

He has been rushed to hospital and the gunman fled the scene, according to reports.

BREAKING: Russian General Vladimir Alekseev shot multiple times in Moscow, Russian media reports

He has been rushed to hospital and the gunman fled the scene, according to reports.

kyivindependent.com

François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 5d

5. General Grynkewich, CINCEUCOM & SACEUR announces resumption of pre-war hi-level US military talks with 🇷🇺 from Abu Dhabi after meeting wirh Russian & Ukrainians there

François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 5d

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1444

1. Flamingo rocket hits Kapustin Yar launch facilities

2. Trump supports Orban in 🇭🇺 April elex
3. Trump pushes new nuclear treaty after New START expiry
4. No progress after Abu Dhabi trilateral apart from POW exchange
5. Late morning missile+drone strikes vs🇺🇦. No numbers yet

François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 5d

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1444

1. Flamingo rocket hits Kapustin Yar launch facilities

2. Trump supports Orban in 🇭🇺 April elex
3. Trump pushes new nuclear treaty after New START expiry
4. No progress after Abu Dhabi trilateral apart from POW exchange
5. Late morning missile+drone strikes vs🇺🇦. No numbers yet

Reposted by François Heisbourg, Henry Jones

The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 5d

⚡️ BREAKING: Russian General Vladimir Alekseev shot multiple times in Moscow, Russian media reports.

He has been rushed to hospital and the gunman fled the scene, according to reports.

BREAKING: Russian General Vladimir Alekseev shot multiple times in Moscow, Russian media reports

He has been rushed to hospital and the gunman fled the scene, according to reports.

kyivindependent.com

Reposted by François Heisbourg

WarTranslated (Dmitri) @wartranslated.bsky.social · 5d

Satellite images confirm the FP-5 Flamingo strike on Russia's Kapustin Yar, where Oreshnik missiles are launched. Damage visible at the 28th complex, likely from the 1-ton warhead, Defense Express reports.

en.defence-ua.com/analysis/ukr...

Reposted by François Heisbourg

Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 5d

International travel to the US has plunged in the first year of Donald Trump’s second term, as the president has overseen a dramatic expansion of immigration enforcement, mounting scrutiny at the border and global tariffs. ft.trib.al/qS5dOcd