François Heisbourg

François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 3h

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1451

1. No European version of Alaska summit: Macron says time not yet ripe for dialog with Putin

2. Zelensky & Rubio speaking tomorrow at #msc2026

3. $38 bn milaid package for 🇺🇦 by Ramstein group. Not yet enough to cover US fall to zero

4. 25 leakers out of ~100 Shahed

François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 4h

Significant but not yet enough to replace in money terms the complete interruption of US milaid since last October. In 2024, the non-US allies gave about 30 billions euro and the US about 30 billion dollars ie about 60 billion overall

The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 4h

Ukraine's partners pledged nearly $38 billion in new military aid following the meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in the Ramstein format on Feb. 12, Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said.

kyivindependent.com/ukraines-def...

Ukraine secures nearly $38 billion in military aid after Ramstein meeting

Ukraine's partners pledged nearly $38 billion in new military aid following the meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in the Ramstein format on Feb. 12, Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said.

kyivindependent.com

François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 4h

If the claimed decoupling was effective, the low-yield test would hardly register in seismographic terms

NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 4h

The Netherlands, UK, Norway and Sweden will deliver 420 million euros in US weapons, equipment and ammunition to Ukraine under the PURL initiative, Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans announced. The Dutch share is about 90 million euros and includes Patriot missiles and F-16 simulators. #Ukraine

NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 4h

Russia attacked Odesa overnight with a new version of the Harpiya-A1 strike drone, marked KK, featuring a 16-element Kometa-M16 CRPA antenna designed to resist electronic warfare, Militarnyi reports. Civilian, port and energy infrastructure were damaged. One person was killed. #Ukraine

The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 4h

Ukraine's partners pledged nearly $38 billion in new military aid following the meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in the Ramstein format on Feb. 12, Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said.

kyivindependent.com/ukraines-def...

Ukraine secures nearly $38 billion in military aid after Ramstein meeting

Ukraine's partners pledged nearly $38 billion in new military aid following the meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in the Ramstein format on Feb. 12, Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said.

kyivindependent.com

The Guardian @theguardian.com · 4h

Munich Security Conference: Rubio flies in amid testing times for US-Europe ties – live

German chancellor Friedrich Merz among key figures to speak as three-day security gathering opens Guardian staff: The US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, has said he will have a chance to meet Volodymyr Zelenskyy at this week’s Munich Security Conference. Continue reading...

www.theguardian.com

François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 22h

Looking forward to reading it

Helene von Bismarck @helenebismarck.bsky.social · 1d

"Some of Britain‘s challenges are specifically British. Many are merely British variations on a global theme.“

Helene von Bismarck @helenebismarck.bsky.social · 1d

A not-so-subtle reminder that we have chosen to publish Fantastic Kingdom in June, a few days before the 10th anniversary of you-know-what.
It is a book about United Kingdom, not just Brexit.
But guess what, it will come up.

www.waterstones.com/book/fantast...

François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 22h

Sounds as if the US believes it has a smoking gun and maybe it does.

Charly Salonius-Pasternak @charlyjsp.bsky.social · 1d

Interesting that US made this claim re Chinese nuclear weapons testing in public. Suggests they've tried to have discussions behind closed doors, which haven't led anywhere.

The US faces a choice, kind of, will it build out to match combined Russia & China threat?

www.npr.org/2026/02/11/n...

The U.S. claims China is conducting secret nuclear tests. Here's what that means

The allegations were leveled by U.S. officials late last week. Arms control experts worry that norms against nuclear testing are unraveling.

www.npr.org

François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 1d

@munsecconf.bsky.social #msc2026

For the first time in decades, I won't be able to make it to Munich (I am felled for a few days by a bout of sciatica). But I will be following proceedings from afar. And to all of my friends who are there, I send you my best wishes.

time.in

François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 1d

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1450

1. 🇷🇺 heavy artyshell production at 7 million pa

2. Oil facilities at Ukhta & elsewhere in Komi hit

3. Progress JCS control systems plant hit at Michurinsk (Tambov)

4. 14 leakers out of ~`150 Shahed. 15 Iskander-M down. 1 Kh-59/69 down : total of 16 missiles down out of 24

Bloomberg News @bloomberg.com · 1d

Here's what you need to know to start your day

Trump Considers Ditching USMCA Trade Pact He Signed

Good morning. Trump mulls quitting the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement. Private equity software specialists try to allay AI disruption fears. And China brings back its home-grown hacking competition. Listen to the day’s top stories.

bloom.bg

The Barents Observer @thebarentsobserver.com · 1d

NOW: Ukrainian drones attack north Russian oil hub Ukhta

Explosions could be heard in the industrial town in the Komi Republic as drones attacked on Thursday morning. Ukhta is located almost 2,000 km from Ukraine.

www.thebarentsobserver.com

NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 1d

Overnight, Ukrainian forces struck a Russian GRAU ammunition depot south of Kotluban in Volgograd region. Multiple explosions were recorded and detonations are ongoing. Authorities announced the evacuation of residents in Kotluban. #Ukraine

Charly Salonius-Pasternak @charlyjsp.bsky.social · 1d

Interesting that US made this claim re Chinese nuclear weapons testing in public. Suggests they've tried to have discussions behind closed doors, which haven't led anywhere.

The US faces a choice, kind of, will it build out to match combined Russia & China threat?

www.npr.org/2026/02/11/n...

The U.S. claims China is conducting secret nuclear tests. Here's what that means

The allegations were leveled by U.S. officials late last week. Arms control experts worry that norms against nuclear testing are unraveling.

www.npr.org

Helene von Bismarck @helenebismarck.bsky.social · 1d

"Some of Britain‘s challenges are specifically British. Many are merely British variations on a global theme.“

Helene von Bismarck @helenebismarck.bsky.social · 1d

A not-so-subtle reminder that we have chosen to publish Fantastic Kingdom in June, a few days before the 10th anniversary of you-know-what.
It is a book about United Kingdom, not just Brexit.
But guess what, it will come up.

www.waterstones.com/book/fantast...

François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 2d

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1449

1. US pressuring 🇺🇦: security guarantees conditioned by peace deal referendum and presidential elex held by 15 May

2. Lukoil Volgograd refinery hit

3. 15 leakers out of ~80 Shaheds

NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 2d

Ukraine has begun planning presidential elections and a referendum, the Financial Times reports. The Trump administration is demanding both votes be held by May 15 or Ukraine could lose US security guarantees. Zelensky intends to announce elections on Feb 24. #Ukraine

François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 2d

US not subjecting Russia to similar obligations

Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 2d

The Ukrainian president’s move comes amid pressure by the White House to hold both votes by May 15 or risk losing proposed US security guarantees. ft.trib.al/7CayP4W

Franz-Stefan Gady @hoanssolo.bsky.social · 2d

‚Ukraine has begun planning presidential elections alongside a referendum on any peace deal with Russia, after the Trump administration pressed Kyiv to hold both votes by May 15 or risk losing proposed US security guarantees.‘ giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

Zelenskyy planning elections in Ukraine and vote on peace deal

Trump administration has pressured Ukrainian leader to hold both votes by May 15 or risk losing security guarantees

giftarticle.ft.com

The Times of Israel @timesofisrael.com · 2d

Trump told police chief in 2006 that ‘everyone’ knew about Epstein, FBI document says https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-told-police-chief-in-2006-that-everyone-knew-about-epstein-fbi-document-says/

Trump told police chief in 2006 that ‘everyone’ knew about Epstein, FBI document says

Report of 2019 interview with Palm Beach police chief says now-president, who repeatedly claimed he knew nothing of Epstein's crimes, said 'thank goodness you're stopping him'

www.timesofisrael.com

Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 2d

The Ukrainian president’s move comes amid pressure by the White House to hold both votes by May 15 or risk losing proposed US security guarantees. ft.trib.al/7CayP4W

François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 3d

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1448

1. Syrskiy: 🇷🇺 annual refining capability down 19%. 🇺🇦 downs 21.7k aerial targets in January

1. 13 leakers out of 80 Shaheds

NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 3d

Russian sources describe heavy fighting near Huliaipole, claiming several Ukrainian assaults were repelled. They say in Ternuvate Ukrainian forces broke through, and communication problems are affecting operations. "The situation is still difficult, the enemy is advancing, and they have successes."

Reuters @reuters.com · 3d

LIVE: Cabinet meeting at Downing Street, London youtube.com/live/5MO7JmI...

LIVE: Cabinet meeting at Downing Street, London

YouTube video by Reuters

youtube.com

POLITICO Europe @politico.eu · 3d

The EU is hatching an unprecedented plan that could give Ukraine partial membership in the bloc as early as next year.

Based on conversations with 10 officials and diplomats, we have identified five steps that could make it happen 👇

5 steps to get Ukraine into the EU in 2027

Plans to bring Kyiv into the tent before it has completed all reforms and to remove Hungary’s veto signal a sense of urgency in Brussels.

www.politico.eu

NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 3d

The European Parliament will vote this week on a €90bn EU loan for Ukraine, with the ballot moved forward to Wednesday. Parliament spokesperson Delphine Colard said there is agreement among political groups. Politico reports major blocs will fast track the vote, securing the needed majority #Ukraine

MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 @maks23.bsky.social · 3d

🔥 Ukraine's long-range strikes reduced Russian oil processing by 19% or 53.4 million tons, — Syrskyi

He also said that as a result of the Ukrainian Air Force's attacks on Russian airfields in January, the enemy reduced its airstrikes on Ukrainian territory by 5%.

François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 4d

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1447

1. 90 Shaheds launched. 23 leakers

2. 11 Iskander-M launched , several intercepted.

No big change in ground war attrition

François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 5d

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1446

1. US presses for peace deal by summer and/or US/🇷🇺 transaction. A 3d trilateral in US next week

2. Rzeszów (POLLOGHUB) & Lublin airports shut due to next door🇷🇺 military activity

3. Neptune missiles hit Bryansk oblast energy targets

4. Rosneft Balashov (Saratov) oil depot hit

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