François Heisbourg
fheisbourg.bsky.social
François Heisbourg
@fheisbourg.bsky.social

Senior adviser (Europe), IISS,
Special adviser, Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique

François Heisbourg is currently Senior Advisor for Europe at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) and Special Advisor at the Paris-based Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique. He was director of the IISS from 1987 to 1992 and its chairman from 2001 to 2018. .. more

Political science 72%
Economics 21%

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1446

1. US presses for peace deal by summer and/or US/🇷🇺 transaction. A 3d trilateral in US next week

2. Rzeszów (POLLOGHUB) & Lublin airports shut due to next door🇷🇺 military activity

3. Neptune missiles hit Bryansk oblast energy targets

4. Rosneft Balashov (Saratov) oil depot hit
President Trump has not imposed any effective sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine during a year of his second term, the BBC reported. Experts say attempts to pressure the ruble were minimal, while Russia’s oil revenue fell due to Europe, not the US. #Ukraine
🇺🇦❗️ Zelensky: Russia launched more than 2,000 attack drones, 1,200 guided aerial bombs, and 116 missiles of various types at our cities and villages in just this past week.

The world must not turn a blind eye to Russian attacks.
A Rosneft oil depot in Balashov, Saratov region, was attacked by drones overnight on February 7, according to analysis by ASTRA. The strike hit the Balashov oil depot, which Ukraine’s General Staff had previously reported as a target. Local residents reported firefighting activity near the site.
Russia's FSB claims the suspect in the attack on GRU General Alekseyev was extradited from the UAE – 66-year-old Lyubomir Korba. Two accomplices were named. No footage of the attack or wounded general has surfaced.
⚡️Ukraine's Neptune missiles strike energy facilities in Russia's Bryansk Oblast, governor claims.

"As a result of the attack, power supply was disrupted in seven municipalities," Bryansk Oblast Governor Alexander Bogomaz claimed.
Ukraine's Neptune missiles strike energy facilities in Russia's Bryansk Oblast, governor claims
"The Armed Forces of Ukraine attacked our region using long-range Neptune missiles and HIMARS multiple rocket launcher systems," Bryansk Oblast Governor Alexander Bogomaz claimed. "As a result of the ...
kyivindependent.com
⚡️Zelensky says Russia presented $12 trillion economic plan to US, called 'Dmitriev package.'

President Volodymyr Zelensky described it as a proposed framework for large-scale U.S.-Russia economic cooperation.
Zelensky warns of 'risk' US, Russia could strike bilateral deals on Ukraine without Kyiv
"We clearly state that Ukraine will not support even potential agreements about us without us," President Volodymyr Zelensky said.
kyivindependent.com

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1445

1. Two bad nights countrywide

Friday: 200 Shahed, 22 leakers
0/2 Kinzhal, 0/5 Kh-59/59

Saturday: 250 Shahed, 44 leakers
14/21 Kh-101
10/16 Kalibr
0/2 Zircon
24 missiles down out of 39

2. Redkino chemical processes plant hit & ablaze (Tver oblast)
Russia fired over 400 drones and around 40 missiles at Ukraine overnight targeting energy infrastructure according to President Zelensky. Energy facilities were hit across eight regions along with homes and a school.
The German army brigade in Lithuania is not under fire, but it is under hybrid attack. Soldiers report mysterious phone calls, and drones appear to be spying on manoeuvres. How should the Bundeswehr and NATO respond?
No front line: Russia's hybrid pressure on German army in Lithuania
The German army brigade in Lithuania is not under fire, but it is under hybrid attack. Soldiers report mysterious phone calls, and drones appear to be spying on manoeuvres. How should the Bundeswehr and NATO respond?
l.euronews.com
Groenland: les consulats de France et du Canada, qui s'opposent au projet de l'administration Trump de prendre le contrôle du Groenland, ont été inaugurés vendredi dans la capitale de l'immense territoire arctique, ont constaté des journalistes de l'AFP.

1st deputy head of GRU
⚡️ BREAKING: Russian General Vladimir Alekseev shot multiple times in Moscow, Russian media reports.

He has been rushed to hospital and the gunman fled the scene, according to reports.
BREAKING: Russian General Vladimir Alekseev shot multiple times in Moscow, Russian media reports
He has been rushed to hospital and the gunman fled the scene, according to reports.
kyivindependent.com

5. General Grynkewich, CINCEUCOM & SACEUR announces resumption of pre-war hi-level US military talks with 🇷🇺 from Abu Dhabi after meeting wirh Russian & Ukrainians there
SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1444

1. Flamingo rocket hits Kapustin Yar launch facilities

2. Trump supports Orban in 🇭🇺 April elex
3. Trump pushes new nuclear treaty after New START expiry
4. No progress after Abu Dhabi trilateral apart from POW exchange
5. Late morning missile+drone strikes vs🇺🇦. No numbers yet

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1444

1. Flamingo rocket hits Kapustin Yar launch facilities

2. Trump supports Orban in 🇭🇺 April elex
3. Trump pushes new nuclear treaty after New START expiry
4. No progress after Abu Dhabi trilateral apart from POW exchange
5. Late morning missile+drone strikes vs🇺🇦. No numbers yet
⚡️ BREAKING: Russian General Vladimir Alekseev shot multiple times in Moscow, Russian media reports.

He has been rushed to hospital and the gunman fled the scene, according to reports.
BREAKING: Russian General Vladimir Alekseev shot multiple times in Moscow, Russian media reports
He has been rushed to hospital and the gunman fled the scene, according to reports.
kyivindependent.com
Satellite images confirm the FP-5 Flamingo strike on Russia's Kapustin Yar, where Oreshnik missiles are launched. Damage visible at the 28th complex, likely from the 1-ton warhead, Defense Express reports.

en.defence-ua.com/analysis/ukr...
International travel to the US has plunged in the first year of Donald Trump’s second term, as the president has overseen a dramatic expansion of immigration enforcement, mounting scrutiny at the border and global tariffs. ft.trib.al/qS5dOcd

Trump has ceasd necessary equipment since last October (only Europe has been providing it (including arms bought by Europe)
I think you know the answer. The “negotiations” have been an excuse to hold back necessary equipment and aid.
I am a Ukrainian Nobel Peace Prize Laureate. I have a question.

Why has Trump's year of negotiations been the deadliest for civilians in Ukraine since the full-scale invasion? The number of deaths and injuries has increased by 31 percent compared to the previous year.

Indeed
I wrote this in May 2025. The same "peace talks" farce is still going. All that happened in the last 9 months is a lot more people dead, a lot more suffering for innocent Ukrainians, and the US threatening NATO allies and undermining the Western alliance.

Full thing here: www.ms.now/opinion/msnb...
Guerre d'Ukraine | 04/02/26

Secteurs :
🌐 Sloviansk-Siversk🔹U260204-1828
🌐 Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad-Rodynske🔹U260204-1830

#UkraineRussianWar #GuerreEnUkraine
Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov slammed French efforts to resuscitate dialogue between Emmanuel Macron and Vladimir Putin as “pathetic” just days after the French president’s top diplomatic adviser traveled to Moscow for high-level talks.
Russia’s Lavrov calls French diplomatic efforts ‘pathetic’ after Macron adviser’s Moscow visit
“If you want to call and have a serious conversation, then call. Putin will always pick up the phone,” Russian foreign minister says in an interview with state media.
www.politico.eu
I wrote this in May 2025. The same "peace talks" farce is still going. All that happened in the last 9 months is a lot more people dead, a lot more suffering for innocent Ukrainians, and the US threatening NATO allies and undermining the Western alliance.

Full thing here: www.ms.now/opinion/msnb...
I think you know the answer. The “negotiations” have been an excuse to hold back necessary equipment and aid.
I am a Ukrainian Nobel Peace Prize Laureate. I have a question.

Why has Trump's year of negotiations been the deadliest for civilians in Ukraine since the full-scale invasion? The number of deaths and injuries has increased by 31 percent compared to the previous year.

Spellcheck sometimes understands what needs to be done...
"Purin" in French means waste, manure.
Amusing typo 😉

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1443

1. NEw START treaty expired at midnight. Pope Leo XIV stresses proliferation risk

2. Second trilateral US🇷🇺🇺🇦 discussion in Abu Dhabi

3. 110 Shaheds launched, 17 leakers. 2 Iskander-M strike

4. Zelensky tells French TV 55 000 UAF KIA since 2022, plus non military victims
📉 Russia's oil and gas revenues fell by half in January on an annual basis to their lowest level since July 2020, - Reuters.

These revenues are crucial for Russia's state budget, which is projected to have a deficit of 5.6 trillion rubles, or 2.6% of GDP, in 2025.
"Purin" in French means waste, manure.
Amusing typo 😉

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1442

1. Trump says Purin kept his word re energy truce

2. 🇺🇦 progresses in Kupiansk shielded by 🇩🇰 🇸🇪 air defence unit

3. 17 Shahed leakers out of ~70
⚡️Putin 'kept his word' — Trump reacts to latest Russian strike on Ukraine.

U.S. President Donald Trump said that Vladimir Putin had "kept his word" on a temporary truce on strikes against Ukraine's energy infrastructure, remarks that came after Russia targeted Ukraine's power plants overnight.
Putin 'kept his word' — Trump reacts to latest Russian strike on Ukraine
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Feb. 3 that Vladimir Putin had "kept his word" on a temporary truce on strikes against Ukraine's energy infrastructure, remarks that came after Russia targeted Ukra...
kyivindependent.com
White House says talks with Tehran this week are still on, even after a US warplane shot down an Iranian drone that approached an aircraft carrier in the region.
u.afp.com/S2QC