Martin Modrák
@modrakm.bsky.social
Biostatistics/bioinformatics at Charles University, 2nd faculty of Medicine. Bayesian in practice, but not a fan of Bayesian epistemology. Main on fedi: https://bayes.club/@modrak_m
Blog: https://martinmodrak.cz
Blog: https://martinmodrak.cz
Reposted by Martin Modrák
Wrote a summary of a great keynote by @zey.bsky.social at NeurIPS, arguing that we’re having the wrong nightmares about AI: not AGI or superhuman benchmarks, but good-enough genAI at scale threatens "load bearing frictions" society relies on to signal effort, authenticity, sincerity, credibility.
Zeynep Tufecki on having the wrong nightmares about generative AI
I was writing a blog post where I was going to reference Zeynep Tufecki’s 2025 NeurIPS keynote, and realized there isn’t a solid synopsis online.
open.substack.com
January 9, 2026 at 4:42 PM
Wrote a summary of a great keynote by @zey.bsky.social at NeurIPS, arguing that we’re having the wrong nightmares about AI: not AGI or superhuman benchmarks, but good-enough genAI at scale threatens "load bearing frictions" society relies on to signal effort, authenticity, sincerity, credibility.
Reposted by Martin Modrák
I ignored the strip.clip argument in #ggplot2 for way too long 😲
Combined with a small negative margin tweak, you can place facet labels inside each panel. A tiny trick that makes small multiples feel so much cleaner.
🔵 no manual coordinates
🔵 inherits theme styling
🔵 scales nicely when resizing
Combined with a small negative margin tweak, you can place facet labels inside each panel. A tiny trick that makes small multiples feel so much cleaner.
🔵 no manual coordinates
🔵 inherits theme styling
🔵 scales nicely when resizing
December 12, 2025 at 12:51 PM
I ignored the strip.clip argument in #ggplot2 for way too long 😲
Combined with a small negative margin tweak, you can place facet labels inside each panel. A tiny trick that makes small multiples feel so much cleaner.
🔵 no manual coordinates
🔵 inherits theme styling
🔵 scales nicely when resizing
Combined with a small negative margin tweak, you can place facet labels inside each panel. A tiny trick that makes small multiples feel so much cleaner.
🔵 no manual coordinates
🔵 inherits theme styling
🔵 scales nicely when resizing
Reposted by Martin Modrák
You can see some of these stereotypes - the simple, morally pure countryside vs. the morally compromised, inauthentic city - play out in Greek and Roman literature.
So this is a very old idea that recurs regularly.
So this is a very old idea that recurs regularly.
Do other countries have this weird notion that you’re not a “real” representative of the nation if you live in an urban center? Like do the French say Parisians aren’t really French? Are you considered not a real German if you live in Berlin? Or is this mainly a weird American thing?
January 1, 2026 at 7:24 PM
You can see some of these stereotypes - the simple, morally pure countryside vs. the morally compromised, inauthentic city - play out in Greek and Roman literature.
So this is a very old idea that recurs regularly.
So this is a very old idea that recurs regularly.
Reposted by Martin Modrák
It has a name now 😜
Many thanks to Ken for agreeing to put his good name to my...artwork. The image is in the public domain (CC 0), but citations to the linked documents are warmly welcomed.
✅ zenodo.org/records/1808...
✅ pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24452418/
Many thanks to Ken for agreeing to put his good name to my...artwork. The image is in the public domain (CC 0), but citations to the linked documents are warmly welcomed.
✅ zenodo.org/records/1808...
✅ pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24452418/
December 29, 2025 at 11:19 AM
It has a name now 😜
Many thanks to Ken for agreeing to put his good name to my...artwork. The image is in the public domain (CC 0), but citations to the linked documents are warmly welcomed.
✅ zenodo.org/records/1808...
✅ pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24452418/
Many thanks to Ken for agreeing to put his good name to my...artwork. The image is in the public domain (CC 0), but citations to the linked documents are warmly welcomed.
✅ zenodo.org/records/1808...
✅ pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24452418/
Reposted by Martin Modrák
I'd like to propose the following norm for peer review of papers. If a paper shows clear signs of LLM-generated errors that were not detected by the author, the paper should be immediately rejected. My reasoning: 1/ #ResearchIntegrity
December 28, 2025 at 6:23 AM
I'd like to propose the following norm for peer review of papers. If a paper shows clear signs of LLM-generated errors that were not detected by the author, the paper should be immediately rejected. My reasoning: 1/ #ResearchIntegrity
Reposted by Martin Modrák
We have weirdly benefitted from the fact that all the 2010s data science boom Medium posts littering the training corpus were so consistently terrible.
December 18, 2025 at 2:10 AM
We have weirdly benefitted from the fact that all the 2010s data science boom Medium posts littering the training corpus were so consistently terrible.
Reposted by Martin Modrák
StanCon 2026 registration and abstract submission are now open
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/11/s...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/11/s...
StanCon 2026 registration and abstract submission are now open | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
December 11, 2025 at 1:46 PM
StanCon 2026 registration and abstract submission are now open
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/11/s...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/11/s...
Reposted by Martin Modrák
This could be very useful for R -> InkScape and R -> Illustrator workflows! #rstats
See the vignette: cran.r-project.org/web/packages...
See the vignette: cran.r-project.org/web/packages...
December 11, 2025 at 2:50 PM
This could be very useful for R -> InkScape and R -> Illustrator workflows! #rstats
See the vignette: cran.r-project.org/web/packages...
See the vignette: cran.r-project.org/web/packages...
Reposted by Martin Modrák
I'm teaching Statistical Rethinking again starting Jan 2026. This time with live lectures, divided into Beginner and Experienced sections. Will be a lot more work for me, but I hope much better for students.
I will record lectures & all will be found at this link: github.com/rmcelreath/s...
I will record lectures & all will be found at this link: github.com/rmcelreath/s...
December 9, 2025 at 1:58 PM
I'm teaching Statistical Rethinking again starting Jan 2026. This time with live lectures, divided into Beginner and Experienced sections. Will be a lot more work for me, but I hope much better for students.
I will record lectures & all will be found at this link: github.com/rmcelreath/s...
I will record lectures & all will be found at this link: github.com/rmcelreath/s...
You will be visited by 3 spirits
December 9, 2025 at 9:36 PM
You will be visited by 3 spirits
Reposted by Martin Modrák
You will be visited by 3 spirits
December 9, 2025 at 4:29 PM
You will be visited by 3 spirits
Reposted by Martin Modrák
as awful as this is, these examples kinda make me feel giddy and validated, given how i normally feel about our current peer review practices. my personal experience unfortunately has never been consistent with academics' general regard of peer review as a net benefit despite its flaws.
Springer-Nature statement
“Whilst the details of peer review are confidential, we can confirm that the article underwent two rounds of review from two independent peer reviewers, supporting an accept decision.”
How am I now expected to believe that two people looked at the paper twice and DGAF?
“Whilst the details of peer review are confidential, we can confirm that the article underwent two rounds of review from two independent peer reviewers, supporting an accept decision.”
How am I now expected to believe that two people looked at the paper twice and DGAF?
Riding the Autism Bicycle to Retraction Town
Does anyone *really* know their Factor Fexcectorn?
nobreakthroughs.substack.com
November 28, 2025 at 5:14 PM
as awful as this is, these examples kinda make me feel giddy and validated, given how i normally feel about our current peer review practices. my personal experience unfortunately has never been consistent with academics' general regard of peer review as a net benefit despite its flaws.
Reposted by Martin Modrák
This touches on a few of the biggest sources of low morale for me:
- flood of AI slop lands in my inbox as peer review requests
- my critical reviews of said AI slop are then ignored by editors at Journals that won't give my work consideration
- all while I'm expected to ⬆️ research output
- flood of AI slop lands in my inbox as peer review requests
- my critical reviews of said AI slop are then ignored by editors at Journals that won't give my work consideration
- all while I'm expected to ⬆️ research output
It's easy to see shoddy research as a bad actor problem. But if AI slop like this can make it through editors and peer reviewers, it means there are systemic problems at work. And I'd argue that at least part of the problem is the overwork culture in academia-- pressure to do more while caring less.
"Runctitiononal features"? "Medical fymblal"? "1 Tol Line storee"? This gets worse the longer you look at it. But it's got to be good, because it was published in Nature Scientific Reports last week: www.nature.com/articles/s41... h/t @asa.tsbalans.se
November 28, 2025 at 5:43 PM
This touches on a few of the biggest sources of low morale for me:
- flood of AI slop lands in my inbox as peer review requests
- my critical reviews of said AI slop are then ignored by editors at Journals that won't give my work consideration
- all while I'm expected to ⬆️ research output
- flood of AI slop lands in my inbox as peer review requests
- my critical reviews of said AI slop are then ignored by editors at Journals that won't give my work consideration
- all while I'm expected to ⬆️ research output
Reposted by Martin Modrák
A thread of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) that look like record covers... because that's EXACTLY what the world needs
1. Huey Lewis and the News: link.springer.com/chapter/10.1...
1. Huey Lewis and the News: link.springer.com/chapter/10.1...
November 28, 2025 at 11:36 AM
A thread of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) that look like record covers... because that's EXACTLY what the world needs
1. Huey Lewis and the News: link.springer.com/chapter/10.1...
1. Huey Lewis and the News: link.springer.com/chapter/10.1...
Reposted by Martin Modrák
Whenever I see campaigns such as this, I'm reminded of the 2021 tweet from Surrey Poilce
November 27, 2025 at 9:37 AM
Whenever I see campaigns such as this, I'm reminded of the 2021 tweet from Surrey Poilce
Reposted by Martin Modrák
Anyone have experience analysing periodicity (eg with Fourier) in data with gaps/missings (eg weekends, holidays) - this is in a health context if it helps? Looking for guides to pitfalls, etc
November 26, 2025 at 12:00 PM
Anyone have experience analysing periodicity (eg with Fourier) in data with gaps/missings (eg weekends, holidays) - this is in a health context if it helps? Looking for guides to pitfalls, etc
Reposted by Martin Modrák
circling p-values right below .05 to infer something about the invalidity of inferences (or even research misconduct) is conceptually no different from calling p-values right above the threshold marginally significant. makes no sense to deride one of these practices while upholding the other.
November 23, 2025 at 5:56 PM
circling p-values right below .05 to infer something about the invalidity of inferences (or even research misconduct) is conceptually no different from calling p-values right above the threshold marginally significant. makes no sense to deride one of these practices while upholding the other.
Reposted by Martin Modrák
I wrote a little bit about the "missing heritability" question and several recent studies that have brought it to a close. A short 🧵
The missing heritability question is now (mostly) answered
Not with a bang but with a whimper
theinfinitesimal.substack.com
November 21, 2025 at 10:34 PM
I wrote a little bit about the "missing heritability" question and several recent studies that have brought it to a close. A short 🧵
Reposted by Martin Modrák
The link between the gut #microbiome and autism is not backed by science, researchers say.
Read the full opinion piece in @cp-neuron.bsky.social: spkl.io/63322AbxpA
@wiringthebrain.bsky.social, @statsepi.bsky.social, & @deevybee.bsky.social
Read the full opinion piece in @cp-neuron.bsky.social: spkl.io/63322AbxpA
@wiringthebrain.bsky.social, @statsepi.bsky.social, & @deevybee.bsky.social
November 13, 2025 at 4:00 PM
The link between the gut #microbiome and autism is not backed by science, researchers say.
Read the full opinion piece in @cp-neuron.bsky.social: spkl.io/63322AbxpA
@wiringthebrain.bsky.social, @statsepi.bsky.social, & @deevybee.bsky.social
Read the full opinion piece in @cp-neuron.bsky.social: spkl.io/63322AbxpA
@wiringthebrain.bsky.social, @statsepi.bsky.social, & @deevybee.bsky.social
Reposted by Martin Modrák
Remember: they used thousands of academic books too! If you’re a scholar, check for your books too. This isn’t just novelists and pop writers, it’s academic books too!
AI advocates have warned that if every author in the class action filed a claim, it would "financially ruin" the entire industry.
Authors celebrate “historic” settlement coming soon in Anthropic class action
Advocates fear such settlements will “financially ruin” the AI industry.
arstechnica.com
November 18, 2025 at 6:32 AM
Remember: they used thousands of academic books too! If you’re a scholar, check for your books too. This isn’t just novelists and pop writers, it’s academic books too!
Reposted by Martin Modrák
every author in the class action, please file the claim.
AI advocates have warned that if every author in the class action filed a claim, it would "financially ruin" the entire industry.
Authors celebrate “historic” settlement coming soon in Anthropic class action
Advocates fear such settlements will “financially ruin” the AI industry.
arstechnica.com
November 18, 2025 at 8:41 AM
every author in the class action, please file the claim.
Reposted by Martin Modrák
A new release of the mgcv #RStats 📦 is out on CRAN and Simon Wood (U Edinburgh) has added some significant new features despite the small bump in version number:
🌟 scasm() for estimating GAMs with shape constrained smooths. Can be used with any family & smoothness selection is via the EFS method
🌟 scasm() for estimating GAMs with shape constrained smooths. Can be used with any family & smoothness selection is via the EFS method
November 12, 2025 at 11:28 AM
A new release of the mgcv #RStats 📦 is out on CRAN and Simon Wood (U Edinburgh) has added some significant new features despite the small bump in version number:
🌟 scasm() for estimating GAMs with shape constrained smooths. Can be used with any family & smoothness selection is via the EFS method
🌟 scasm() for estimating GAMs with shape constrained smooths. Can be used with any family & smoothness selection is via the EFS method
Reposted by Martin Modrák
The detectCores() apocalypse is creeping up on us 👻🐛
As more people are getting access to 128+ CPU cores, code spinning up parallel cluster with detectCores() workers fails - not enough #RStats connections available
Friends, do *not* default to detectCores(), bc www.jottr.org/2022/12/05/a...
As more people are getting access to 128+ CPU cores, code spinning up parallel cluster with detectCores() workers fails - not enough #RStats connections available
Friends, do *not* default to detectCores(), bc www.jottr.org/2022/12/05/a...
Please Avoid detectCores() in your R Packages
The detectCores() function of the parallel package is probably one of the most used functions when it comes to setting the number of parallel workers to use in R. In this blog post, I’ll try to explai...
www.jottr.org
November 5, 2025 at 11:55 PM
The detectCores() apocalypse is creeping up on us 👻🐛
As more people are getting access to 128+ CPU cores, code spinning up parallel cluster with detectCores() workers fails - not enough #RStats connections available
Friends, do *not* default to detectCores(), bc www.jottr.org/2022/12/05/a...
As more people are getting access to 128+ CPU cores, code spinning up parallel cluster with detectCores() workers fails - not enough #RStats connections available
Friends, do *not* default to detectCores(), bc www.jottr.org/2022/12/05/a...
Reposted by Martin Modrák
Now I'm also looking for a research software engineer to implement a pile of research results to R packages loo, posterior, bayesplot, projpred, priorsense, brms or/and Python packages ArviZ, Bambi and Kulprit. Apply by email with no specific deadline (see contact info at users.aalto.fi/~ave/)
I'm now also looking for a postdoc with strong Bayesian background and interest in developing Bayesian cross-validation theory, methods and software. Apply by email with no specific deadline (see contact information at users.aalto.fi/~ave/).
Others, please share
Others, please share
I'm looking for a doctoral student with Bayesian background to work on Bayesian workflow and cross-validation (see my publication list users.aalto.fi/~ave/publica... for my recent work) at Aalto University.
Apply through the ELLIS PhD program (dl October 31) ellis.eu/news/ellis-p...
Apply through the ELLIS PhD program (dl October 31) ellis.eu/news/ellis-p...
November 3, 2025 at 11:13 AM
Now I'm also looking for a research software engineer to implement a pile of research results to R packages loo, posterior, bayesplot, projpred, priorsense, brms or/and Python packages ArviZ, Bambi and Kulprit. Apply by email with no specific deadline (see contact info at users.aalto.fi/~ave/)
Reposted by Martin Modrák
Who did this?!
November 1, 2025 at 8:38 PM
Who did this?!