Martin Modrák
@modrakm.bsky.social
Biostatistics/bioinformatics at Charles University, 2nd faculty of Medicine. Bayesian in practice, but not a fan of Bayesian epistemology. Main on fedi: https://bayes.club/@modrak_m
Blog: https://martinmodrak.cz
Blog: https://martinmodrak.cz
Reposted by Martin Modrák
A new release of the mgcv #RStats 📦 is out on CRAN and Simon Wood (U Edinburgh) has added some significant new features despite the small bump in version number:
🌟 scasm() for estimating GAMs with shape constrained smooths. Can be used with any family & smoothness selection is via the EFS method
🌟 scasm() for estimating GAMs with shape constrained smooths. Can be used with any family & smoothness selection is via the EFS method
November 12, 2025 at 11:28 AM
A new release of the mgcv #RStats 📦 is out on CRAN and Simon Wood (U Edinburgh) has added some significant new features despite the small bump in version number:
🌟 scasm() for estimating GAMs with shape constrained smooths. Can be used with any family & smoothness selection is via the EFS method
🌟 scasm() for estimating GAMs with shape constrained smooths. Can be used with any family & smoothness selection is via the EFS method
Reposted by Martin Modrák
The detectCores() apocalypse is creeping up on us 👻🐛
As more people are getting access to 128+ CPU cores, code spinning up parallel cluster with detectCores() workers fails - not enough #RStats connections available
Friends, do *not* default to detectCores(), bc www.jottr.org/2022/12/05/a...
As more people are getting access to 128+ CPU cores, code spinning up parallel cluster with detectCores() workers fails - not enough #RStats connections available
Friends, do *not* default to detectCores(), bc www.jottr.org/2022/12/05/a...
Please Avoid detectCores() in your R Packages
The detectCores() function of the parallel package is probably one of the most used functions when it comes to setting the number of parallel workers to use in R. In this blog post, I’ll try to explai...
www.jottr.org
November 5, 2025 at 11:55 PM
The detectCores() apocalypse is creeping up on us 👻🐛
As more people are getting access to 128+ CPU cores, code spinning up parallel cluster with detectCores() workers fails - not enough #RStats connections available
Friends, do *not* default to detectCores(), bc www.jottr.org/2022/12/05/a...
As more people are getting access to 128+ CPU cores, code spinning up parallel cluster with detectCores() workers fails - not enough #RStats connections available
Friends, do *not* default to detectCores(), bc www.jottr.org/2022/12/05/a...
Reposted by Martin Modrák
Now I'm also looking for a research software engineer to implement a pile of research results to R packages loo, posterior, bayesplot, projpred, priorsense, brms or/and Python packages ArviZ, Bambi and Kulprit. Apply by email with no specific deadline (see contact info at users.aalto.fi/~ave/)
I'm now also looking for a postdoc with strong Bayesian background and interest in developing Bayesian cross-validation theory, methods and software. Apply by email with no specific deadline (see contact information at users.aalto.fi/~ave/).
Others, please share
Others, please share
I'm looking for a doctoral student with Bayesian background to work on Bayesian workflow and cross-validation (see my publication list users.aalto.fi/~ave/publica... for my recent work) at Aalto University.
Apply through the ELLIS PhD program (dl October 31) ellis.eu/news/ellis-p...
Apply through the ELLIS PhD program (dl October 31) ellis.eu/news/ellis-p...
November 3, 2025 at 11:13 AM
Now I'm also looking for a research software engineer to implement a pile of research results to R packages loo, posterior, bayesplot, projpred, priorsense, brms or/and Python packages ArviZ, Bambi and Kulprit. Apply by email with no specific deadline (see contact info at users.aalto.fi/~ave/)
Reposted by Martin Modrák
Who did this?!
November 1, 2025 at 8:38 PM
Who did this?!
Reposted by Martin Modrák
The recording of this webinar is now available on the @nihr-rss.bsky.social YouTube channel: www.youtube.com/watch?v=4cNz...
October 21, 2025 at 1:32 PM
The recording of this webinar is now available on the @nihr-rss.bsky.social YouTube channel: www.youtube.com/watch?v=4cNz...
Reposted by Martin Modrák
Reposted by Martin Modrák
"It is not likely that there will ever be a point of time at which all fundamental debates in all fields of science reach a nice closure. Moreover it is not even clear that pluralistic phases of sciences are confused and uncertain, and therefore inferior, to the more unified phases. >>
October 18, 2025 at 6:20 AM
"It is not likely that there will ever be a point of time at which all fundamental debates in all fields of science reach a nice closure. Moreover it is not even clear that pluralistic phases of sciences are confused and uncertain, and therefore inferior, to the more unified phases. >>
Reposted by Martin Modrák
This morning my ChatGPT quota was inexplicably exhausted.
It took a while but I pieced it together. Voice mode somehow got activated when I went to bed.
The bot then engaged in a 10 hour conversation with my snoring dog, answering questions the pup wasn’t asking and praising him for his insight.
It took a while but I pieced it together. Voice mode somehow got activated when I went to bed.
The bot then engaged in a 10 hour conversation with my snoring dog, answering questions the pup wasn’t asking and praising him for his insight.
October 18, 2025 at 9:04 AM
This morning my ChatGPT quota was inexplicably exhausted.
It took a while but I pieced it together. Voice mode somehow got activated when I went to bed.
The bot then engaged in a 10 hour conversation with my snoring dog, answering questions the pup wasn’t asking and praising him for his insight.
It took a while but I pieced it together. Voice mode somehow got activated when I went to bed.
The bot then engaged in a 10 hour conversation with my snoring dog, answering questions the pup wasn’t asking and praising him for his insight.
Reposted by Martin Modrák
This may just be the best CS paper I’ve read this year. Just read the abstract and first para of the intro! The rest of the intro is really wild too, but very very good:
dl.acm.org/doi/pdf/10.1...
dl.acm.org/doi/pdf/10.1...
October 14, 2025 at 1:12 PM
This may just be the best CS paper I’ve read this year. Just read the abstract and first para of the intro! The rest of the intro is really wild too, but very very good:
dl.acm.org/doi/pdf/10.1...
dl.acm.org/doi/pdf/10.1...
Reposted by Martin Modrák
We talk about the big money and now federal interests manipulating the science reform movement, but I don't think we talk enough about the ideological moves that have been going on inside retraction watch for years. It's like FIRE
Oh good, Retraction Watch is employing professional transphobe Alice Dreger. Who doesn't love a bit of institutional capture?
October 16, 2025 at 6:22 PM
We talk about the big money and now federal interests manipulating the science reform movement, but I don't think we talk enough about the ideological moves that have been going on inside retraction watch for years. It's like FIRE
Reposted by Martin Modrák
Hey, hey guys! Guys! They reinvented the textbook! And the library!
Just amazing to see someone tell on themselves so clearly in public that they do not really know what teaching...is?
Just amazing to see someone tell on themselves so clearly in public that they do not really know what teaching...is?
Wow. Just wow.
"Students pay premium prices for information that AI now delivers instantly and for free. A business student can ask ChatGPT to explain supply chain optimization or generate market analysis in seconds. The traditional lecture-and-test model faces its Blockbuster moment."
"Students pay premium prices for information that AI now delivers instantly and for free. A business student can ask ChatGPT to explain supply chain optimization or generate market analysis in seconds. The traditional lecture-and-test model faces its Blockbuster moment."
When Knowledge is Free, What are Professors For?
Higher Education Must Stop Competing with AI on Information and Start Teaching What Machines Can’t Do
www.forbes.com
October 16, 2025 at 2:40 PM
Hey, hey guys! Guys! They reinvented the textbook! And the library!
Just amazing to see someone tell on themselves so clearly in public that they do not really know what teaching...is?
Just amazing to see someone tell on themselves so clearly in public that they do not really know what teaching...is?
Reposted by Martin Modrák
Make an effect size prediction!
@jamiecummins.bsky.social and I are replicating Balcetis & Dunning's (2010) "chocolate is more desirable than poop" (Cohen's d = 4.52)
Let us known in the replies what effect size you think we'll find. Details of the study in the thread below.
@jamiecummins.bsky.social and I are replicating Balcetis & Dunning's (2010) "chocolate is more desirable than poop" (Cohen's d = 4.52)
Let us known in the replies what effect size you think we'll find. Details of the study in the thread below.
October 13, 2025 at 11:30 AM
Make an effect size prediction!
@jamiecummins.bsky.social and I are replicating Balcetis & Dunning's (2010) "chocolate is more desirable than poop" (Cohen's d = 4.52)
Let us known in the replies what effect size you think we'll find. Details of the study in the thread below.
@jamiecummins.bsky.social and I are replicating Balcetis & Dunning's (2010) "chocolate is more desirable than poop" (Cohen's d = 4.52)
Let us known in the replies what effect size you think we'll find. Details of the study in the thread below.
Reposted by Martin Modrák
note that in the ggplot2 the default pointsize is not a constant anymore
GeomPoint$default_aes
#> Aesthetic mapping:
#> * `shape` -> `from_theme(pointshape)`
#> * `colour` -> `from_theme(colour %||% ink)`
#> * `fill` -> `from_theme(fill %||% NA)`
#> * `size` -> `from_theme(pointsize)`
GeomPoint$default_aes
#> Aesthetic mapping:
#> * `shape` -> `from_theme(pointshape)`
#> * `colour` -> `from_theme(colour %||% ink)`
#> * `fill` -> `from_theme(fill %||% NA)`
#> * `size` -> `from_theme(pointsize)`
October 9, 2025 at 8:24 PM
If you feel so inclined, I run a Mastodon instance bayes.club and try to make it a nice place and you can join if you like. I know some people have strong opinions on this and some have had bad experience on Mastodon. And that's all fair and I won't dispute that, there's a lot of work to do.
Bayes Club
A community of statisticians using Bayesian methods.
bayes.club
October 7, 2025 at 2:43 PM
If you feel so inclined, I run a Mastodon instance bayes.club and try to make it a nice place and you can join if you like. I know some people have strong opinions on this and some have had bad experience on Mastodon. And that's all fair and I won't dispute that, there's a lot of work to do.
Reposted by Martin Modrák
I'm looking for a doctoral student with Bayesian background to work on Bayesian workflow and cross-validation (see my publication list users.aalto.fi/~ave/publica... for my recent work) at Aalto University.
Apply through the ELLIS PhD program (dl October 31) ellis.eu/news/ellis-p...
Apply through the ELLIS PhD program (dl October 31) ellis.eu/news/ellis-p...
ELLIS PhD Program: Call for Applications 2025
The ELLIS mission is to create a diverse European network that promotes research excellence and advances breakthroughs in AI, as well as a pan-European PhD program to educate the next generation of AI...
ellis.eu
October 6, 2025 at 9:28 AM
I'm looking for a doctoral student with Bayesian background to work on Bayesian workflow and cross-validation (see my publication list users.aalto.fi/~ave/publica... for my recent work) at Aalto University.
Apply through the ELLIS PhD program (dl October 31) ellis.eu/news/ellis-p...
Apply through the ELLIS PhD program (dl October 31) ellis.eu/news/ellis-p...
Reposted by Martin Modrák
One thing I find so strange about the P-curve is how once it was published, the burden of proof shifted to others to prove that it is bad (in ways that Simonsohn would care about, at least), rather than the authors, to prove that it works in general (for standard definitions of "works"). (21/x)
September 25, 2025 at 10:07 AM
One thing I find so strange about the P-curve is how once it was published, the burden of proof shifted to others to prove that it is bad (in ways that Simonsohn would care about, at least), rather than the authors, to prove that it works in general (for standard definitions of "works"). (21/x)
Reposted by Martin Modrák
Simonsohn has now posted a blog response to our recent paper about the poor statistical properties of the P curve. @clintin.bsky.social and I are finishing up a less-technical paper that will serve as a response. But I wanted to address a meta-issue *around* this that may clarify some things. 1/x
Would p-curve work if you dropped a piano on it?
datacolada.org/129
datacolada.org/129
September 25, 2025 at 10:07 AM
Simonsohn has now posted a blog response to our recent paper about the poor statistical properties of the P curve. @clintin.bsky.social and I are finishing up a less-technical paper that will serve as a response. But I wanted to address a meta-issue *around* this that may clarify some things. 1/x
Reposted by Martin Modrák
It's officially been a year since this paper was retracted. In the wake, the authors claimed (misleadingly) it was just a couple pesky sentences... a revise and resubmit.
Since then, radio silence with not even an update to the preprint.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Since then, radio silence with not even an update to the preprint.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Retraction Note: High replicability of newly discovered social-behavioural findings is achievable - Nature Human Behaviour
Nature Human Behaviour - Retraction Note: High replicability of newly discovered social-behavioural findings is achievable
www.nature.com
September 24, 2025 at 12:28 PM
It's officially been a year since this paper was retracted. In the wake, the authors claimed (misleadingly) it was just a couple pesky sentences... a revise and resubmit.
Since then, radio silence with not even an update to the preprint.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Since then, radio silence with not even an update to the preprint.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Reposted by Martin Modrák
this might be a bit of a long shot, but is anyone here willing to share documents of an ERC (starting) grant? or any insights into the process, things you wished you knew before…? i would be very thankful as i think it is quite different from programs i am familiar with so far. ☀️
September 8, 2025 at 1:38 PM
this might be a bit of a long shot, but is anyone here willing to share documents of an ERC (starting) grant? or any insights into the process, things you wished you knew before…? i would be very thankful as i think it is quite different from programs i am familiar with so far. ☀️
Reposted by Martin Modrák
*cracks knuckles*
okay so you know how the media has a problem with taking snippets of scientific studies out of context and writing articles which mislead the public?
now imagine a computer program is doing that when you ask it questions about scientific literature but also it makes stuff up.
okay so you know how the media has a problem with taking snippets of scientific studies out of context and writing articles which mislead the public?
now imagine a computer program is doing that when you ask it questions about scientific literature but also it makes stuff up.
September 2, 2025 at 8:41 PM
*cracks knuckles*
okay so you know how the media has a problem with taking snippets of scientific studies out of context and writing articles which mislead the public?
now imagine a computer program is doing that when you ask it questions about scientific literature but also it makes stuff up.
okay so you know how the media has a problem with taking snippets of scientific studies out of context and writing articles which mislead the public?
now imagine a computer program is doing that when you ask it questions about scientific literature but also it makes stuff up.
Reposted by Martin Modrák
Stan / CmdStan 2.37 release!
blog.mc-stan.org/2025/09/02/r...
- sum_to_zero_matrix type sums to zero across both rows and columns
- simplex and *_stochastic_matrix types should be now faster and more stable
- new functions exposing the built-in constraint implementations
1/2
blog.mc-stan.org/2025/09/02/r...
- sum_to_zero_matrix type sums to zero across both rows and columns
- simplex and *_stochastic_matrix types should be now faster and more stable
- new functions exposing the built-in constraint implementations
1/2
Release of CmdStan 2.37
We are very happy to announce that the 2.37.0 release of CmdStan is now available on Github! As usual, the release of CmdStan is accompanied by new releases of Stan Math, core Stan, and Stanc3. Thi…
blog.mc-stan.org
September 2, 2025 at 5:06 PM
Stan / CmdStan 2.37 release!
blog.mc-stan.org/2025/09/02/r...
- sum_to_zero_matrix type sums to zero across both rows and columns
- simplex and *_stochastic_matrix types should be now faster and more stable
- new functions exposing the built-in constraint implementations
1/2
blog.mc-stan.org/2025/09/02/r...
- sum_to_zero_matrix type sums to zero across both rows and columns
- simplex and *_stochastic_matrix types should be now faster and more stable
- new functions exposing the built-in constraint implementations
1/2
Reposted by Martin Modrák
A SQL query goes into a bar, walks up to 2 tables and says “Can I join you?”
September 3, 2025 at 2:37 AM
A SQL query goes into a bar, walks up to 2 tables and says “Can I join you?”
Reposted by Martin Modrák
Destroy this myth. Please share if you have visited and researched in a library this past year! RT And give a shout out to your favorite library you have ever visited.
December 21, 2024 at 12:49 AM
Destroy this myth. Please share if you have visited and researched in a library this past year! RT And give a shout out to your favorite library you have ever visited.
Reposted by Martin Modrák
📢 Interested in excess mortality methods, and want a challenge? I'm organising the "One Epidemic, Many Estimates" (1EME) project! Register *now* as a many analyst team (submissions due 15 March 2026), and then join us at LSE for a workshop on 21-22 May 2026! (1/n)
www.lse.ac.uk/Economic-His...
www.lse.ac.uk/Economic-His...
One Epidemic, Many Estimates (1EME)
One Epidemic, Many Estimates (1EME)
www.lse.ac.uk
August 27, 2025 at 8:54 AM
📢 Interested in excess mortality methods, and want a challenge? I'm organising the "One Epidemic, Many Estimates" (1EME) project! Register *now* as a many analyst team (submissions due 15 March 2026), and then join us at LSE for a workshop on 21-22 May 2026! (1/n)
www.lse.ac.uk/Economic-His...
www.lse.ac.uk/Economic-His...
Reposted by Martin Modrák
Great to see this happen and a good opportunity to caution against some pitfalls in many-analyst studies: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
Can't imagine a better team to pull this off, so do join
Can't imagine a better team to pull this off, so do join
📢 Interested in excess mortality methods, and want a challenge? I'm organising the "One Epidemic, Many Estimates" (1EME) project! Register *now* as a many analyst team (submissions due 15 March 2026), and then join us at LSE for a workshop on 21-22 May 2026! (1/n)
www.lse.ac.uk/Economic-His...
www.lse.ac.uk/Economic-His...
One Epidemic, Many Estimates (1EME)
One Epidemic, Many Estimates (1EME)
www.lse.ac.uk
August 27, 2025 at 3:28 PM
Great to see this happen and a good opportunity to caution against some pitfalls in many-analyst studies: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
Can't imagine a better team to pull this off, so do join
Can't imagine a better team to pull this off, so do join