Lars Lowinski
@larswx.bsky.social
RMetS Chartered Meteorologist, photographer, occasional storm chaser.
Interested in severe weather, natural hazards and risk communication.
Opinions are my own.
My photography: larslowinski.com
Interested in severe weather, natural hazards and risk communication.
Opinions are my own.
My photography: larslowinski.com
Reposted by Lars Lowinski
Expert comment about more destructive tropical cyclones as the world warms:
theconversation.com/hurricane-me...
theconversation.com/hurricane-me...
Hurricane Melissa is a warning – why violent storms are increasingly catching the world off guard
In a single day, Melissa exploded from a moderate storm into a major hurricane with 170mph winds.
theconversation.com
October 30, 2025 at 7:51 AM
Expert comment about more destructive tropical cyclones as the world warms:
theconversation.com/hurricane-me...
theconversation.com/hurricane-me...
This is amazing footage.
This is footage taken earlier today of the eye of Hurricane Melissa.
The entire view is remarkable, of the core of one of the strongest Atlantic basic hurricanes in recorded history, and a catastrophic hit to Jamaica and the central Caribbean.
The entire view is remarkable, of the core of one of the strongest Atlantic basic hurricanes in recorded history, and a catastrophic hit to Jamaica and the central Caribbean.
October 29, 2025 at 12:51 PM
This is amazing footage.
Reposted by Lars Lowinski
Wow. This is easily the most ridiculous dropsonde I’ve ever seen.
188 knot mean winds in the low-levels with gusts over 250 mph
Absolutely scary and historic hurricane headed into SW Jamaica this morning
188 knot mean winds in the low-levels with gusts over 250 mph
Absolutely scary and historic hurricane headed into SW Jamaica this morning
October 28, 2025 at 2:21 PM
Wow. This is easily the most ridiculous dropsonde I’ve ever seen.
188 knot mean winds in the low-levels with gusts over 250 mph
Absolutely scary and historic hurricane headed into SW Jamaica this morning
188 knot mean winds in the low-levels with gusts over 250 mph
Absolutely scary and historic hurricane headed into SW Jamaica this morning
Reposted by Lars Lowinski
With a central pressure down to 896mb as of 9am EDT, #Melissa has joined the elite sub-900mb group of Atlantic hurricanes... it is now one of just seven:
Wilma 2005: 882mb
Gilbert 1988: 888mb
Labor Day 1935: 892mb
Rita 2005: 895mb
Milton 2024: 895mb
Melissa 2025: 896mb
Allen 1980: 899mb
Wilma 2005: 882mb
Gilbert 1988: 888mb
Labor Day 1935: 892mb
Rita 2005: 895mb
Milton 2024: 895mb
Melissa 2025: 896mb
Allen 1980: 899mb
October 28, 2025 at 1:20 PM
With a central pressure down to 896mb as of 9am EDT, #Melissa has joined the elite sub-900mb group of Atlantic hurricanes... it is now one of just seven:
Wilma 2005: 882mb
Gilbert 1988: 888mb
Labor Day 1935: 892mb
Rita 2005: 895mb
Milton 2024: 895mb
Melissa 2025: 896mb
Allen 1980: 899mb
Wilma 2005: 882mb
Gilbert 1988: 888mb
Labor Day 1935: 892mb
Rita 2005: 895mb
Milton 2024: 895mb
Melissa 2025: 896mb
Allen 1980: 899mb
Reposted by Lars Lowinski
A true catastrophe is likely to unfold in Jamaica, as multiple days of rain followed by a direct hit from a top-end hurricane push the limits of what the country has seen historically. Details on the forecast, which aren’t much changed today below and at theeyewall.com.
Melissa explodes into a powerful hurricane, and it is going to deliver catastrophic impacts to Jamaica
Flooding, surge, and wind all look truly awful for Jamaica.
open.substack.com
October 26, 2025 at 5:59 PM
A true catastrophe is likely to unfold in Jamaica, as multiple days of rain followed by a direct hit from a top-end hurricane push the limits of what the country has seen historically. Details on the forecast, which aren’t much changed today below and at theeyewall.com.
Reposted by Lars Lowinski
NHC now explicitly calls for Melissa to reach category 5 intensity before striking Jamaica.
The addition of Google DeepMind’s FNV3 ensemble this year bolstered forecast confidence in extreme intensification — it’s doubtful the NHC forecast would’ve been this aggressive without FNV3.
The addition of Google DeepMind’s FNV3 ensemble this year bolstered forecast confidence in extreme intensification — it’s doubtful the NHC forecast would’ve been this aggressive without FNV3.
October 25, 2025 at 9:08 PM
NHC now explicitly calls for Melissa to reach category 5 intensity before striking Jamaica.
The addition of Google DeepMind’s FNV3 ensemble this year bolstered forecast confidence in extreme intensification — it’s doubtful the NHC forecast would’ve been this aggressive without FNV3.
The addition of Google DeepMind’s FNV3 ensemble this year bolstered forecast confidence in extreme intensification — it’s doubtful the NHC forecast would’ve been this aggressive without FNV3.
This could become a catastrophic flood and wind event for Jamaica in particular.
1:52 PM EDT, 10/25: #HurricaneMelissa, a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds, is SW of #Haiti. It is expected to rapidly intensify and reach high end #Category4 (possibly #Category5) #Monday as it moves towards #Jamaica, with heavy #rainfall (up to 30”/750mm) & #flooding forecast.
October 25, 2025 at 6:58 PM
This could become a catastrophic flood and wind event for Jamaica in particular.
Reposted by Lars Lowinski
Tropical Storm #Melissa has not yet strengthened. But this actually bad news, since a weaker storm is more likely to linger in the Caribbean and become a major hurricane, as @bhensonweather.bsky.social and I explain:
yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/10/trop...
yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/10/trop...
Tropical Storm Melissa not yet strengthening, but still expected to become a dangerous Caribbean hurricane » Yale Climate Connections
The track forecast is more uncertain than usual, but Melissa is likely to bring colossal rains and life-threatening flooding to multiple islands in the Caribbean.
yaleclimateconnections.org
October 22, 2025 at 4:29 PM
Tropical Storm #Melissa has not yet strengthened. But this actually bad news, since a weaker storm is more likely to linger in the Caribbean and become a major hurricane, as @bhensonweather.bsky.social and I explain:
yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/10/trop...
yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/10/trop...
Reposted by Lars Lowinski
Tornadoes in France today. At least one death and 9 injuries, unfortunate but somewhat inevitable when a significant tornado (seems to be at least an IF2 to me) strikes such a populated area. Europe has a severe lack of tornado awareness and when a violent one will strike a highly populated area...
Oh, that's interesting ! So far, we have two tornadoes for today, but not on those locations !
The first one in Ermont/Eaubonne : www.facebook.com/1284867853/v...
The first one in Ermont/Eaubonne : www.facebook.com/1284867853/v...
Isabelle Lesot Yvart on Reels
www.facebook.com
October 20, 2025 at 7:15 PM
Tornadoes in France today. At least one death and 9 injuries, unfortunate but somewhat inevitable when a significant tornado (seems to be at least an IF2 to me) strikes such a populated area. Europe has a severe lack of tornado awareness and when a violent one will strike a highly populated area...
Reposted by Lars Lowinski
Further (extreme) heavy rainfall and floods for parts of #Spain due to #DANA (=Depresión Aislada en Niveles Altos) #Alice. After #Tarragona was affected yesterday, this time it is the region south of #Valencia and #Amposta. The satellite image shows a two huge, stationary storm systems.
October 13, 2025 at 11:02 AM
Widespread power cuts affecting western and central Scotland just now as a result of damaging winds from #StormAmy (source: ssen.co.uk)
October 3, 2025 at 9:02 PM
Widespread power cuts affecting western and central Scotland just now as a result of damaging winds from #StormAmy (source: ssen.co.uk)
Reposted by Lars Lowinski
The rapid deepening of Storm Amy has begun.
Over the next hours, the storm will travel across the jet stream and move to the left exit region of the jet stream where the most explosive deepening will take place.
Over the next hours, the storm will travel across the jet stream and move to the left exit region of the jet stream where the most explosive deepening will take place.
October 3, 2025 at 8:03 AM
The rapid deepening of Storm Amy has begun.
Over the next hours, the storm will travel across the jet stream and move to the left exit region of the jet stream where the most explosive deepening will take place.
Over the next hours, the storm will travel across the jet stream and move to the left exit region of the jet stream where the most explosive deepening will take place.
Reposted by Lars Lowinski
#StormAmy means business
Rapid cyclogenesis
978 to 946hpa, a drop of 32hpa in central pressure in just 18hrs..and perhaps dipping to less than 946hpa for a time during the period
Rapid cyclogenesis
978 to 946hpa, a drop of 32hpa in central pressure in just 18hrs..and perhaps dipping to less than 946hpa for a time during the period
October 3, 2025 at 9:55 AM
#StormAmy means business
Rapid cyclogenesis
978 to 946hpa, a drop of 32hpa in central pressure in just 18hrs..and perhaps dipping to less than 946hpa for a time during the period
Rapid cyclogenesis
978 to 946hpa, a drop of 32hpa in central pressure in just 18hrs..and perhaps dipping to less than 946hpa for a time during the period
#StormAmy probably being named very soon as models are in better agreement this morning. It could be a record-breaker in terms of low pressure for the time of year as well.
W + N Scotland in particular is likely to see some intense winds with this one.
W + N Scotland in particular is likely to see some intense winds with this one.
October 1, 2025 at 9:12 AM
#StormAmy probably being named very soon as models are in better agreement this morning. It could be a record-breaker in terms of low pressure for the time of year as well.
W + N Scotland in particular is likely to see some intense winds with this one.
W + N Scotland in particular is likely to see some intense winds with this one.
Reposted by Lars Lowinski
The possible outcomes for the weather later this week..
September 30, 2025 at 3:39 PM
The possible outcomes for the weather later this week..
Reposted by Lars Lowinski
Quite worrying solutions recently in the global weather models regarding Humberto's post-tropical intensification. The system is forecast to deepen explosively while arriving Europe.
The northern British Isles might be hit hard. 👀
The northern British Isles might be hit hard. 👀
September 30, 2025 at 5:02 AM
Quite worrying solutions recently in the global weather models regarding Humberto's post-tropical intensification. The system is forecast to deepen explosively while arriving Europe.
The northern British Isles might be hit hard. 👀
The northern British Isles might be hit hard. 👀
While the Azores have seen some tropical storms and a few hurricanes in the past, #Gabrielle will be at the upper end of the climatological range in terms of intensity. People on the central islands in particular should take this storm seriously and prepare for it
September 25, 2025 at 10:27 AM
While the Azores have seen some tropical storms and a few hurricanes in the past, #Gabrielle will be at the upper end of the climatological range in terms of intensity. People on the central islands in particular should take this storm seriously and prepare for it
Reposted by Lars Lowinski
Remarkable to see what hurricanes can do when they traverse exceptionally warm water. Gabrielle rapidly strengthening to a Category 4 hurricane today right as it passed over record warm sea surface temperatures for the time of year.
September 23, 2025 at 1:50 AM
Remarkable to see what hurricanes can do when they traverse exceptionally warm water. Gabrielle rapidly strengthening to a Category 4 hurricane today right as it passed over record warm sea surface temperatures for the time of year.
Very heavy rain across SE France last night in association with an area of strong thunderstorms.
This is the season for intense convective events (often augmented by topographic features) around the Mediterranean Sea
This is the season for intense convective events (often augmented by topographic features) around the Mediterranean Sea
Comme prévu, l'épisode méditerranéen a été très intense avec fréquemment plus de 80mm et même localement plus de 100mm.
Ce n'est pas la durabilité mais l'intensité des cumuls en peu de temps qui a été remarquable comme à Toulon avec près de 90mm en 1h soit une valeur inédite.
Ce n'est pas la durabilité mais l'intensité des cumuls en peu de temps qui a été remarquable comme à Toulon avec près de 90mm en 1h soit une valeur inédite.
September 22, 2025 at 11:39 AM
Very heavy rain across SE France last night in association with an area of strong thunderstorms.
This is the season for intense convective events (often augmented by topographic features) around the Mediterranean Sea
This is the season for intense convective events (often augmented by topographic features) around the Mediterranean Sea
Reposted by Lars Lowinski
UPDATE: Official 12-hourly precipitation data, 09/09/25, 6 UTC. Highest amounts:
Bedburg (Germany) 134 mm
Luxembourg Airport 122 mm
Mönchengladbach (Germany) 122 mm
Bedburg (Germany) 134 mm
Luxembourg Airport 122 mm
Mönchengladbach (Germany) 122 mm
September 9, 2025 at 6:33 AM
UPDATE: Official 12-hourly precipitation data, 09/09/25, 6 UTC. Highest amounts:
Bedburg (Germany) 134 mm
Luxembourg Airport 122 mm
Mönchengladbach (Germany) 122 mm
Bedburg (Germany) 134 mm
Luxembourg Airport 122 mm
Mönchengladbach (Germany) 122 mm
This one will happen very close to home...heavy (locally thundery) rain in far W Germany and surrounding areas. A few locations could see up to 100 mm in under 24 hours, enough to cause some flooding issues despite rather dry antecedent conditions. #weather
September 8, 2025 at 11:16 AM
This one will happen very close to home...heavy (locally thundery) rain in far W Germany and surrounding areas. A few locations could see up to 100 mm in under 24 hours, enough to cause some flooding issues despite rather dry antecedent conditions. #weather
#lunareclipse2025 as seen in the Siebengebirge hills near Bonn earlier today.
September 7, 2025 at 9:33 PM
#lunareclipse2025 as seen in the Siebengebirge hills near Bonn earlier today.
High-shear/low CAPE setup in W Europe this afternoon/evening. Non-zero chance of a strong tornado event, too.
There are increasing signs that a pot. severe convective situation could develop in Western Europe today. Supercells could develop in moderately unstable but extremely sheared subtropical air with increased #tornado risk in places. The focus appears to be on NE France, Belgium and the Netherlands.
September 3, 2025 at 1:59 PM
High-shear/low CAPE setup in W Europe this afternoon/evening. Non-zero chance of a strong tornado event, too.
Reposted by Lars Lowinski
September 2nd, 1935:
The infamous Labor Day hurricane slammed Florida. The Category 5 remains the most intense storm to have struck the US directly. Parts of the Florida Keys were completely devastated, with estimates putting the death toll over 400.
The infamous Labor Day hurricane slammed Florida. The Category 5 remains the most intense storm to have struck the US directly. Parts of the Florida Keys were completely devastated, with estimates putting the death toll over 400.
September 2, 2025 at 12:02 PM
September 2nd, 1935:
The infamous Labor Day hurricane slammed Florida. The Category 5 remains the most intense storm to have struck the US directly. Parts of the Florida Keys were completely devastated, with estimates putting the death toll over 400.
The infamous Labor Day hurricane slammed Florida. The Category 5 remains the most intense storm to have struck the US directly. Parts of the Florida Keys were completely devastated, with estimates putting the death toll over 400.
Reposted by Lars Lowinski
Tomorrow evening there is a slightly enhanced risk of a #tornado or two over Benelux and north-eastern France! Very prominent low-level shear and veering overlapping with weak/moderate instability. Strong forcing is possible just ahead of the approaching cold front. Sounding: @kachelmannwetter.com
September 2, 2025 at 11:13 AM
Tomorrow evening there is a slightly enhanced risk of a #tornado or two over Benelux and north-eastern France! Very prominent low-level shear and veering overlapping with weak/moderate instability. Strong forcing is possible just ahead of the approaching cold front. Sounding: @kachelmannwetter.com