Haydon is reading The Uncertain Center, Arthur C McGill
@haydonmp.bsky.social
Dad, husband, double hoo.
10+ years as a fire/medic, published neuro/stroke clinical researcher, public and foreign policy degrees. Occasional woodworking posts.
Opinions my own, especially when they're wrong. Reposts are not endorsements.
10+ years as a fire/medic, published neuro/stroke clinical researcher, public and foreign policy degrees. Occasional woodworking posts.
Opinions my own, especially when they're wrong. Reposts are not endorsements.
Pinned
I am not saying that a stroke like this is disqualifying for the office of the presidency, not at all. Neuro recovery is a remarkable and individual thing.
But like, it is very clearly what's going on here.
But like, it is very clearly what's going on here.
This thread escaped containment and I would like to use this as an opportunity to address some misconceptions about stroke as a disease and recovery thereof I noticed in the replies.
I'm going to use an example from my career where I was so glad to be so wrong about a patient's prognosis.
I'm going to use an example from my career where I was so glad to be so wrong about a patient's prognosis.
Reposted by Haydon is reading The Uncertain Center, Arthur C McGill
In the century leading up to 1975, nearly 6000 freighters went down in the Great Lakes.
The Edmund Fitzgerald was the last.
The last. In 50 years, not a single commercial freighter has been lost in the Great Lakes.
Why?
It's NOAA. Of course it's NOAA.
The Edmund Fitzgerald was the last.
The last. In 50 years, not a single commercial freighter has been lost in the Great Lakes.
Why?
It's NOAA. Of course it's NOAA.
November 11, 2025 at 1:50 AM
In the century leading up to 1975, nearly 6000 freighters went down in the Great Lakes.
The Edmund Fitzgerald was the last.
The last. In 50 years, not a single commercial freighter has been lost in the Great Lakes.
Why?
It's NOAA. Of course it's NOAA.
The Edmund Fitzgerald was the last.
The last. In 50 years, not a single commercial freighter has been lost in the Great Lakes.
Why?
It's NOAA. Of course it's NOAA.
Reposted by Haydon is reading The Uncertain Center, Arthur C McGill
I keep yelling this at my phone when I see these photos and I’m going to start yelling it here:
NEVER. POINT. YOUR FIREARM. AT ANYTHING. YOU DO NOT INTEND. TO DESTROY.
NEVER. POINT. YOUR FIREARM. AT ANYTHING. YOU DO NOT INTEND. TO DESTROY.
November 11, 2025 at 1:40 AM
I keep yelling this at my phone when I see these photos and I’m going to start yelling it here:
NEVER. POINT. YOUR FIREARM. AT ANYTHING. YOU DO NOT INTEND. TO DESTROY.
NEVER. POINT. YOUR FIREARM. AT ANYTHING. YOU DO NOT INTEND. TO DESTROY.
Reposted by Haydon is reading The Uncertain Center, Arthur C McGill
As the ~discourse~ seems to bend interminably towards Republicans trying to figure out how they can (further) HDHP-ify ACA coverage, it's worth revisiting what is probably our best (most rigorous) study on the effect of deductibles in health insurance.
academic.oup.com/qje/article-...
academic.oup.com/qje/article-...
November 10, 2025 at 9:51 PM
As the ~discourse~ seems to bend interminably towards Republicans trying to figure out how they can (further) HDHP-ify ACA coverage, it's worth revisiting what is probably our best (most rigorous) study on the effect of deductibles in health insurance.
academic.oup.com/qje/article-...
academic.oup.com/qje/article-...
They call these god forsaken things Mobile Lounges at Dulles?
A mobile lounge carrying passengers crashed at Washington Dulles International Airport on Monday, injuring more than a dozen people and causing some damage to the terminal.
Mobile Lounge Crashes at Dulles Airport, Causing Injuries and Damage
More than a dozen people were hurt and will be evaluated at a hospital. Air travel has been hampered in recent days by the government shutdown.
nyti.ms
November 11, 2025 at 12:38 AM
They call these god forsaken things Mobile Lounges at Dulles?
Right on cue for the House to come back in session.
Jeffrey Epstein co-conspirator Ghislaine Maxwell plans to seek commutation from Trump, whistleblower says
The whistleblower came forward with the information to Democrats on the House Judiciary Committee.
www.nbcnews.com
November 10, 2025 at 6:28 PM
Right on cue for the House to come back in session.
I made some wild rice and roasted chicken soup over the weekend that's absolutely delightful. The flavors have really melded together by this point.
One of the worst habits this kind of dumb site invites is Takery. We need to get back to posting our lunch plans
November 10, 2025 at 6:09 PM
I made some wild rice and roasted chicken soup over the weekend that's absolutely delightful. The flavors have really melded together by this point.
Reposted by Haydon is reading The Uncertain Center, Arthur C McGill
The Psychology of Crowds and Leadership in the 2021 Capitol Insurrection
www.researchgate.net/publication/...
www.researchgate.net/publication/...
November 10, 2025 at 4:36 PM
The Psychology of Crowds and Leadership in the 2021 Capitol Insurrection
www.researchgate.net/publication/...
www.researchgate.net/publication/...
I, like most right thinking people, am ride or die for Ms Rachel and I am firmly of the opinion that if there is any figure that could finally take down the Grey Lady, it’s her.
November 10, 2025 at 2:51 PM
I, like most right thinking people, am ride or die for Ms Rachel and I am firmly of the opinion that if there is any figure that could finally take down the Grey Lady, it’s her.
Reposted by Haydon is reading The Uncertain Center, Arthur C McGill
This has been carried out by amazing Nicolò Pagan, with Chris Bail, Chris Barrie, and Anikó Hannák.
Paper (preprint): arxiv.org/abs/2511.04195
Happy to share prompts, configs, and analysis scripts.
Paper (preprint): arxiv.org/abs/2511.04195
Happy to share prompts, configs, and analysis scripts.
Computational Turing Test Reveals Systematic Differences Between Human and AI Language
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in the social sciences to simulate human behavior, based on the assumption that they can generate realistic, human-like text. Yet this assumption rem...
arxiv.org
November 7, 2025 at 11:13 AM
This has been carried out by amazing Nicolò Pagan, with Chris Bail, Chris Barrie, and Anikó Hannák.
Paper (preprint): arxiv.org/abs/2511.04195
Happy to share prompts, configs, and analysis scripts.
Paper (preprint): arxiv.org/abs/2511.04195
Happy to share prompts, configs, and analysis scripts.
Reposted by Haydon is reading The Uncertain Center, Arthur C McGill
We also found some surprising trade-offs:
🎭 When models sound more human, they drift from what people actually say.
🧠 When they match meaning better, they sound less human.
Style or meaning — you have to pick one.
🎭 When models sound more human, they drift from what people actually say.
🧠 When they match meaning better, they sound less human.
Style or meaning — you have to pick one.
November 7, 2025 at 11:13 AM
We also found some surprising trade-offs:
🎭 When models sound more human, they drift from what people actually say.
🧠 When they match meaning better, they sound less human.
Style or meaning — you have to pick one.
🎭 When models sound more human, they drift from what people actually say.
🧠 When they match meaning better, they sound less human.
Style or meaning — you have to pick one.
Reposted by Haydon is reading The Uncertain Center, Arthur C McGill
I’ve said it before, but I’m probably gonna say it a few more times: the thing about @bsky.app is that, ideological siloing notwithstanding, it’s just mostly a *technically* better platform for reporters than other Twitters.
Better for traffic. Better for sharing. Verification still matters, etc.
Better for traffic. Better for sharing. Verification still matters, etc.
November 10, 2025 at 2:18 PM
I’ve said it before, but I’m probably gonna say it a few more times: the thing about @bsky.app is that, ideological siloing notwithstanding, it’s just mostly a *technically* better platform for reporters than other Twitters.
Better for traffic. Better for sharing. Verification still matters, etc.
Better for traffic. Better for sharing. Verification still matters, etc.
Reposted by Haydon is reading The Uncertain Center, Arthur C McGill
I'm hearing reports that Glonzo has trapped John Cornyn in a power station
November 10, 2025 at 3:03 AM
I'm hearing reports that Glonzo has trapped John Cornyn in a power station
Reposted by Haydon is reading The Uncertain Center, Arthur C McGill
As with the John Boehner-era Republican leadership, there will be much level-headed debate among analysts and commentators about the gains and losses that the 2025 Democratic leadership has accrued which will not protect it from being toppled by a radicalised party base.
"If Democrats are seen as the party looking out for federal employees by getting them their paychecks that will be a PR disaster because people hate federal employees" sure is a take you can post, I can say so because I'm unfortunate enough to have seen it with my own eyes
November 10, 2025 at 12:30 AM
As with the John Boehner-era Republican leadership, there will be much level-headed debate among analysts and commentators about the gains and losses that the 2025 Democratic leadership has accrued which will not protect it from being toppled by a radicalised party base.
Reposted by Haydon is reading The Uncertain Center, Arthur C McGill
This is a disease where you slowly suffocate to death, and it is torture. There is no cure, and once diagnosed, your life expectancy is in the single digits. We talk about cancer, but we don't talk about occupational lung disease. I think fibrosis is worse than cancer.
November 10, 2025 at 12:15 AM
This is a disease where you slowly suffocate to death, and it is torture. There is no cure, and once diagnosed, your life expectancy is in the single digits. We talk about cancer, but we don't talk about occupational lung disease. I think fibrosis is worse than cancer.
Reposted by Haydon is reading The Uncertain Center, Arthur C McGill
Respiratory therapy mentioned! www.cbsnews.com/pittsburgh/n...
Deep in Trump country, coal miners with black lung say government is suffocating the 'working man'
Lisa Emery, a respiratory therapist, is deeply concerned about West Virginia coal miners suffering from black lung disease.
www.cbsnews.com
November 10, 2025 at 12:15 AM
Respiratory therapy mentioned! www.cbsnews.com/pittsburgh/n...
Reposted by Haydon is reading The Uncertain Center, Arthur C McGill
If the ACA implodes it means that the last decade might be remembered as the golden age of American healthcare, God help us all.
November 10, 2025 at 12:15 AM
If the ACA implodes it means that the last decade might be remembered as the golden age of American healthcare, God help us all.
Reposted by Haydon is reading The Uncertain Center, Arthur C McGill
Cave bill text is out
www.appropriations.senate.gov/imo/media/do...
www.appropriations.senate.gov/imo/media/do...
www.appropriations.senate.gov
November 9, 2025 at 11:43 PM
Cave bill text is out
www.appropriations.senate.gov/imo/media/do...
www.appropriations.senate.gov/imo/media/do...
Reposted by Haydon is reading The Uncertain Center, Arthur C McGill
- #Syria’s President Ahmed al-Sharaa & Foreign Minister @AsaadHShaibani playing basketball with @CENTCOM Commander Admiral Cooper & @CJTFOIR Commander BG Kevin Lambert.
November 8, 2025 at 10:50 PM
- #Syria’s President Ahmed al-Sharaa & Foreign Minister @AsaadHShaibani playing basketball with @CENTCOM Commander Admiral Cooper & @CJTFOIR Commander BG Kevin Lambert.
You could probably get Thune on board with explicitly this given how he got jammed by Johnson.
What if the House votes it down and it ends Johnson's Speakership
November 9, 2025 at 9:13 PM
You could probably get Thune on board with explicitly this given how he got jammed by Johnson.
Reposted by Haydon is reading The Uncertain Center, Arthur C McGill
Money quote from Gov-Elect Spanberger (now please just do it).
November 9, 2025 at 7:53 PM
Money quote from Gov-Elect Spanberger (now please just do it).
Reposted by Haydon is reading The Uncertain Center, Arthur C McGill
I asked Georgetown law prof David Super wtf is going on with this latest demand for states to claw back benefits already sent out.
He says the law doesn't allow for this, and if the USDA is mad that states already sent out SNAP money, too bad—they were following USDA's own guidance. Full comments:
He says the law doesn't allow for this, and if the USDA is mad that states already sent out SNAP money, too bad—they were following USDA's own guidance. Full comments:
November 9, 2025 at 4:19 PM
I asked Georgetown law prof David Super wtf is going on with this latest demand for states to claw back benefits already sent out.
He says the law doesn't allow for this, and if the USDA is mad that states already sent out SNAP money, too bad—they were following USDA's own guidance. Full comments:
He says the law doesn't allow for this, and if the USDA is mad that states already sent out SNAP money, too bad—they were following USDA's own guidance. Full comments:
Reposted by Haydon is reading The Uncertain Center, Arthur C McGill
I worked harder on this book than any before it. My ex-publisher then failed to pay me what they owed me for it & did their best to ruin its chances of survival. That robbed me of a year of my life & ruined my health.
After all that, to see reviews like this one brings me close to tears too.
After all that, to see reviews like this one brings me close to tears too.
Bloody hell! It’s been a long time since a book has brought me to tears. @dj-acid-reflux.bsky.social Thank you so very much for writing Everything Will Swallow You. Book of the year. #BookSky #TheStorygraph
November 9, 2025 at 10:05 AM
I worked harder on this book than any before it. My ex-publisher then failed to pay me what they owed me for it & did their best to ruin its chances of survival. That robbed me of a year of my life & ruined my health.
After all that, to see reviews like this one brings me close to tears too.
After all that, to see reviews like this one brings me close to tears too.
THE CLIPS SHOW THE TELL TALE SIGNS OF FATIGUE, WE BROUGHT IN A PANEL OF DEAD EYED EXPERTS MADE UP OF PARENTS OF YOUNG CHILDREN, RESIDENT PHYSICIANS AND NIGHT SHIFT CONVENIENCE STORE CLERKS FOR ANALYSIS
WaPo puts the Sleepy Trump piece on Page One.
@washingtonpost.com
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
@washingtonpost.com
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
November 9, 2025 at 12:41 PM
THE CLIPS SHOW THE TELL TALE SIGNS OF FATIGUE, WE BROUGHT IN A PANEL OF DEAD EYED EXPERTS MADE UP OF PARENTS OF YOUNG CHILDREN, RESIDENT PHYSICIANS AND NIGHT SHIFT CONVENIENCE STORE CLERKS FOR ANALYSIS
Great run through of a microbiome paper and why they’re.. worth being apprehensive about.
This one surely has something on offer for every one: In this cross-sectional mediation analysis, the "effects" of soft drink consumption on depression were "mediated" by abundance of Eggerthela in the gut microbiome.
This was sent to me via dm and now you all got to suffer as well.
This was sent to me via dm and now you all got to suffer as well.
Soft Drink Consumption and Depression Mediated by Gut Microbiome Alterations
This cohort study examines the association between soft drink consumption and major depressive disorder diagnosis and severity and whether this association is mediated by changes in the gut microbiota...
jamanetwork.com
November 9, 2025 at 12:38 PM
Great run through of a microbiome paper and why they’re.. worth being apprehensive about.