Guy Yeomans
@guyyeomans.bsky.social
Professional: Foresight & Horizon Scanning | Research: Resilience (CNI / Societal) & Comprehensive Security, Total Defence, National Preparedness | Emerging Risks & CM / EM | Military mobility | High North, GIUK-NGap & Arctic Futures | Personal: #OnXII
I am obliged to sound the #GIUK-NGap klaxon...: "The plan for a German P-8 operation from Norway & Iceland is directly linked to NATO's prioritisation of the GIUK gap (Greenland–Iceland–UK–Norway) and the protection of critical undersea infrastructure." #HighNorth
Germany's new maritime patrol aircraft P-8A Poseidon will operate out of Norway, Iceland and the United Kingdom, as part of NATO's efforts to monitor the North Atlantic.
www.abcnyheter.no/nyheter/tysk...
www.abcnyheter.no/nyheter/tysk...
Tyskland skal jakte russiske ubåter fra Norge
Målet er å hindre at russiske ubåter går uoppdaget ut i Atlanteren.
www.abcnyheter.no
November 12, 2025 at 4:55 PM
I am obliged to sound the #GIUK-NGap klaxon...: "The plan for a German P-8 operation from Norway & Iceland is directly linked to NATO's prioritisation of the GIUK gap (Greenland–Iceland–UK–Norway) and the protection of critical undersea infrastructure." #HighNorth
Australia's intelligence chief warned that Chinese hackers are trying to break into its networks, sometimes successfully, to "pre-position" for sabotage ahead of an anticipated invasion of Taiwan.
Australian spy chief warns Chinese hackers are 'probing' critical networks for espionage and sabotage | TechCrunch
Australia's intelligence chief warned that Chinese hackers are trying to break into its networks, sometimes successfully, to "pre-position" for sabotage ahead of an anticipated invasion of Taiwan.
techcrunch.com
November 12, 2025 at 1:46 PM
Hope you got a chance to see some of this @warmatters.bsky.social...
”Sverige lär NATO jaga ubåtar i Östersjön.
Upplev när en mindre armada av örlogsfarkoster navigerar genom Stockholms skärgård för att öva tillsammans med svenska förmågor.”
www.youtube.com/watch?v=fC0i...
Upplev när en mindre armada av örlogsfarkoster navigerar genom Stockholms skärgård för att öva tillsammans med svenska förmågor.”
www.youtube.com/watch?v=fC0i...
Tysk ubåt i Sverige!
YouTube video by Hidden in Sweden
www.youtube.com
November 8, 2025 at 8:21 AM
Hope you got a chance to see some of this @warmatters.bsky.social...
The Authoritarian Stack
How Tech Billionaires Are Building a Post-Democratic America — And Why Europe Is Next.
➡️ ➡️ ➡️ ➡️ www.authoritarian-stack.info
How Tech Billionaires Are Building a Post-Democratic America — And Why Europe Is Next.
➡️ ➡️ ➡️ ➡️ www.authoritarian-stack.info
November 2, 2025 at 10:17 AM
📅 The “From Hackers to Tech Companies: IHL and the Involvement of Civilians in ICT Activities in Armed Conflict” event is happening next week!
Join this interactive expert discussion on key legal questions to limit civilian involvement & prevent IHL violations.
🔗 Register now → bit.ly/48EZ0ev
Join this interactive expert discussion on key legal questions to limit civilian involvement & prevent IHL violations.
🔗 Register now → bit.ly/48EZ0ev
EVENT: From Hackers to Tech Companies: IHL and the Involvement of Civilians in ICT Activities in Armed Conflict
bit.ly
October 29, 2025 at 12:32 PM
I am obliged to sound the #GIUK-NGap klaxon... #HighNorth
Russia is amassing nuclear weapons and attack submarines in the Arctic Circle as it prepares for war with Nato,Norway’s defence minister has warned,the Telegraph reports.
▪️"Russia is building up on the Kola peninsula ...where one of the largest arsenals of nuclear warheads in the world is located.⤵️
▪️"Russia is building up on the Kola peninsula ...where one of the largest arsenals of nuclear warheads in the world is located.⤵️
October 26, 2025 at 11:26 AM
I am obliged to sound the #GIUK-NGap klaxon... #HighNorth
Germany: #criticalinfrastructuresecurity & #civilprotection...
“German politicians are making serious accusations against the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. They allege the party is studying the country's critical infrastructure — in the interests of the Kremlin,“ using parliamentary inquiries to gather detailed information on IT, transport, water etc.
Is Germany's far-right populist AfD spying for Russia? – DW – 10/26/2025
German politicians are making serious accusations against the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. They allege the party is studying the country's critical infrastructure — in the interests of the Kre...
www.dw.com
October 26, 2025 at 10:16 AM
Germany: #criticalinfrastructuresecurity & #civilprotection...
Recommend following Jill's insights, both here & on Patreon, from her most recent #logpower & #adventurousresearch project in Ukraine...
What have I been doing in Ukraine? Research on the logistics of military subsistence in live operation to feed a portion of the armed forces.
I was supposed to arrive to the Kyiv rail station, but I got two offers I couldn't refuse (dinner with the boss and a ride), but enjoy these rail stations photos from my outbound travels. It's a beautiful station.
October 26, 2025 at 10:11 AM
Recommend following Jill's insights, both here & on Patreon, from her most recent #logpower & #adventurousresearch project in Ukraine...
Ukraine: civil response... #societalresilience
The video shows volunteers who, immediately after the Russian strike on #Kharkiv, went to feed and support rescuers, utility workers, police officers, and all the caring people helping to deal with the aftermath of the Russian attack.
📹: fond_roksana_ta_komanda
📹: fond_roksana_ta_komanda
October 24, 2025 at 12:00 PM
Ukraine: civil response... #societalresilience
I am obliged to sound the #GIUK-NGap klaxon... #HighNorth
⚓ Is the 🇷🇺 Navy a capable threat to 🇬🇧?
We asked eight experts in today’s #BigAsk
✍️ @bbaxendalesmith.bsky.social, John Foreman CBE, Prof. Basil Germond, Prof. Andrew Lambert FKC, @jgmaber.bsky.social, @so3brocktree.bsky.social, @covertshores.bsky.social, and Daisy Turnbull
#BritainsWorld
We asked eight experts in today’s #BigAsk
✍️ @bbaxendalesmith.bsky.social, John Foreman CBE, Prof. Basil Germond, Prof. Andrew Lambert FKC, @jgmaber.bsky.social, @so3brocktree.bsky.social, @covertshores.bsky.social, and Daisy Turnbull
#BritainsWorld
Is the Russian Navy a capable threat to Britain?
The Big Ask | No. 43.2025
www.britainsworld.org.uk
October 24, 2025 at 11:58 AM
I am obliged to sound the #GIUK-NGap klaxon... #HighNorth
With Esja in the background, early snow topping...
Royal Danish Navy Thetis-class ocean patrol vessel HDMS Thetis (F357) in Reykjavik, Iceland - October 22, 2025 SRC: webcam
October 22, 2025 at 1:00 PM
With Esja in the background, early snow topping...
Perhaps of interest @jsargentr.bsky.social? Full programme details here > www.kiu.europa-uni.de/en/programme...
October 17, 2025 at 7:28 AM
Perhaps of interest @jsargentr.bsky.social? Full programme details here > www.kiu.europa-uni.de/en/programme...
"It is also the first time a container ship has traveled from China to the UK via the Arctic": China-Europe Arctic Express heralds new direct UK - #HighNorth connectivity... h/t @vesselspotter.bsky.social gcaptain.com/chinese-cont...
Chinese Containership ‘Istanbul Bridge’ Reaches UK via Arctic Route in Record 20 Days
Chinese containership Istanbul Bridge arrived at the UK’s largest terminal Felixstowe early on October 13. The Panamax vessel completed the 7,500 nautical mile voyage via the Arctic Northern Sea Route...
gcaptain.com
October 14, 2025 at 9:59 AM
"It is also the first time a container ship has traveled from China to the UK via the Arctic": China-Europe Arctic Express heralds new direct UK - #HighNorth connectivity... h/t @vesselspotter.bsky.social gcaptain.com/chinese-cont...
Germany: new BBK guide "Preparing for Crises & Disasters" published today... #civilprotection
Heute ist der neue BBK Ratgeber "Vorsorgen für Krisen und Katastrophen" erschienen
www.bbk.bund.de/SharedDocs/D...
www.bbk.bund.de/SharedDocs/D...
October 13, 2025 at 7:51 AM
Germany: new BBK guide "Preparing for Crises & Disasters" published today... #civilprotection
"Jan Mayen, part of Norway’s sovereign territory, is strategically vital for NATO, serving as a key node for transatlantic supply routes and freedom of navigation in the Arctic..." #HighNorth #GIUK-NGap h/t @jsargentr.bsky.social www.raf.mod.uk/news/article...
RAF A400 Achieves Historic Landing on Remote Arctic Island
In a landmark operation, a UK Royal Air Force (RAF) A400M Atlas transport aircraft successfully landed on Jan Mayen, a remote volcanic island in the Norwegian Sea, marking the first-ever landing of it...
www.raf.mod.uk
October 13, 2025 at 7:22 AM
"Jan Mayen, part of Norway’s sovereign territory, is strategically vital for NATO, serving as a key node for transatlantic supply routes and freedom of navigation in the Arctic..." #HighNorth #GIUK-NGap h/t @jsargentr.bsky.social www.raf.mod.uk/news/article...
Baltics: "We talk about this every month, every week - at work, everywhere... Estonia, Latvia & Lithuania "are drawing up contingency plans to deal with the possibility of hundreds of thousands of people fleeing a Russian troop buildup or attack"... #civilprotection www.reuters.com/business/aer...
www.reuters.com
October 11, 2025 at 12:06 PM
Baltics: "We talk about this every month, every week - at work, everywhere... Estonia, Latvia & Lithuania "are drawing up contingency plans to deal with the possibility of hundreds of thousands of people fleeing a Russian troop buildup or attack"... #civilprotection www.reuters.com/business/aer...
#HighNorth: start of Adamant Serpent 26. U.S. SOF–led Arctic & sub-Arctic annual drill, with Danish, Norwegian & Swedish force participation. The exercise is "...emphasizing preparedness that cannot wait until conflict arises"
The scenario stresses swift deployment, integration and sustainment in harsh climates, reflecting the alliance’s renewed focus on the High North and Baltic approaches.
ukdefencejournal.org.uk/?p=62881
ukdefencejournal.org.uk/?p=62881
NATO special forces head to the Arctic
The scenario stresses swift deployment, integration and sustainment in harsh climates, reflecting the alliance’s renewed focus on the High North and Baltic approaches.
ukdefencejournal.org.uk
October 11, 2025 at 12:00 PM
#HighNorth: start of Adamant Serpent 26. U.S. SOF–led Arctic & sub-Arctic annual drill, with Danish, Norwegian & Swedish force participation. The exercise is "...emphasizing preparedness that cannot wait until conflict arises"
UK: article suggests delayed but not yet confirmed as being formally withdrawn. Prompts three thoughts: #1 - to paraphrase @edrusi.bsky.social from a recent RUSI article 'Until politicians are clearly preparing... why should society?'... 1/3 #societalresilience www.theguardian.com/environment/...
National security threatened by climate crisis, UK intelligence chiefs due to warn
Report by joint intelligence committee delayed, with concerns expressed that it may not be published
www.theguardian.com
October 9, 2025 at 2:13 PM
UK: article suggests delayed but not yet confirmed as being formally withdrawn. Prompts three thoughts: #1 - to paraphrase @edrusi.bsky.social from a recent RUSI article 'Until politicians are clearly preparing... why should society?'... 1/3 #societalresilience www.theguardian.com/environment/...
UK: the Tier 1 Exercise Pegasus is ongoing. There are many non-governmental organisations, across sectors, actively involved downstream of the LGD's as part of the 'others' mentioned here... #civilprotection
What day is it? That's right, it's Day 2 ("containment") of Exercise Pegasus, the "largest ever simulation of a pandemic in UK history" - right now, teams in the NHS, govt depts and others are testing their approach to dealing with a possible future pandemic...
hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2025...
hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2025...
October 9, 2025 at 11:38 AM
UK: the Tier 1 Exercise Pegasus is ongoing. There are many non-governmental organisations, across sectors, actively involved downstream of the LGD's as part of the 'others' mentioned here... #civilprotection
Germany: "...they should be asking critical questions about long-term resilience, rather than sensationalizing scenario planning & crisis exercises." #futuresliteracy #societalresilience
Very cool piece on the importance of strategic foresight and forward-looking strategy by @bressansar.bsky.social for @gppi.bsky.social :
gppi.net/2025/10/08/g...
gppi.net/2025/10/08/g...
Germany’s National Security Council Must Be Futures-Literate
Germany has finally established a national security council. To truly make German security policy strategic, the council must seriously consider foresight, and imagine possible future developments and...
gppi.net
October 9, 2025 at 7:22 AM
Germany: "...they should be asking critical questions about long-term resilience, rather than sensationalizing scenario planning & crisis exercises." #futuresliteracy #societalresilience
Sweden: "The aim is to generate knowledge that can be directly applied to build resilience against information influence..." Malign information influence (MII) & #societalresilience
Researchers at the Swedish Defence University are launching a new study to explore how to strengthen democratic resilience against information influence - by testing countermeasures and sharing findings with the public through a new web platform.
New pilot study to strengthen resilience against malign information influence
Information influence from authoritarian states is a growing threat to democratic societies. Through misleading narratives, foreign actors seek to undermine trust in institutions and create division. ...
fhs.se
October 8, 2025 at 2:58 PM
Sweden: "The aim is to generate knowledge that can be directly applied to build resilience against information influence..." Malign information influence (MII) & #societalresilience
UK: "The time has come not only to ‘think the unthinkable’ but to act on it – treating war as a real & imminent threat. As our adversaries will target societal cohesion & health systems, resilience must be moved from an aspiration to a political priority..." #civilprotection #societalresilience
Russia's playbook in Ukraine includes bombs, cyberattacks, misinformation, and supply disruptions—all aimed at healthcare resilience. As European militaries ready themselves for war, the UK risks making medical readiness an afterthought, write @edrusi.bsky.social and Si Horne.
European Medical Provision in Times of War
As European militaries ready themselves for war, creating resilient medical systems remains an afterthought for the UK.
www.rusi.org
October 7, 2025 at 7:14 AM
UK: "The time has come not only to ‘think the unthinkable’ but to act on it – treating war as a real & imminent threat. As our adversaries will target societal cohesion & health systems, resilience must be moved from an aspiration to a political priority..." #civilprotection #societalresilience
Drone walls: prospective EU or otherwise, & the nascent interplay of #totaldefence - #civilprotection implications...
In any case a bigger problem here is how far effective drone defence needs to be also anchored on cheap gear that is portable enough to move in a car and easy to use enough for a regular cop. It's not just a military or border guard challenge.
October 6, 2025 at 4:22 PM
Drone walls: prospective EU or otherwise, & the nascent interplay of #totaldefence - #civilprotection implications...
Norway: "Total preparedness must also apply to medicines..." #totaldefence #societalresilience www.aftenposten.no/meninger/deb...
Norske myndigheter må starte opp en offentlig legemiddelproduksjon
Tiden er inne for at norske myndigheter igangsetter en offentlig legemiddelproduksjon.
www.aftenposten.no
October 5, 2025 at 1:09 PM
Norway: "Total preparedness must also apply to medicines..." #totaldefence #societalresilience www.aftenposten.no/meninger/deb...
#ResilienceDilemma: "We now have enough data to state that deterrence by resilience does not work". Challenging a broadly held idea of a part of resilience's underlying strategic rationale. "Deterrence by punishment is now the avenue that Europe needs to explore..." #totaldefence #societalresilience
This week’s short Europe Dispatch with @phillipspobrien.bsky.social:
Deterrence by denial doesn’t work in hybrid warfare because denying effect doesn’t stop Russia from continuing the attacks. What a nice life we all could have had if Russia had just become a normal country after the Cold War. Alas
Deterrence by denial doesn’t work in hybrid warfare because denying effect doesn’t stop Russia from continuing the attacks. What a nice life we all could have had if Russia had just become a normal country after the Cold War. Alas
The Resilience Dilemma
In this week’s Europe Dispatch, Minna Ålander reflects on the fact that deterrence by resilience clearly does not work.
open.substack.com
October 5, 2025 at 10:46 AM
#ResilienceDilemma: "We now have enough data to state that deterrence by resilience does not work". Challenging a broadly held idea of a part of resilience's underlying strategic rationale. "Deterrence by punishment is now the avenue that Europe needs to explore..." #totaldefence #societalresilience