Minna Ålander 🌻
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alanderminna.bsky.social
Minna Ålander 🌻
@alanderminna.bsky.social
Associate Fellow @chathamhouse.org | @cepa.org Fellow | Senior Fellow Frivärld | Defence Editor @eurcorrespond.bsky.social. Plot twist: not from Åland. 📸 Stas Kartashov

✍️ Northern Flank Notes: https://open.substack.com/pub/minnalander
Pinned
Today was the day when Europe announced that it is moving on:

The Franco-British agreement to establish a nuclear supervision group, and a permanent headquarters for the Ukraine coalition of the willing can become contours of a new European security architecture - this time without the US.
Contours of European Strategic Autonomy
Europe is moving on without the US, and the US does not seem to like it after all.
open.substack.com
Reposted by Minna Ålander 🌻
Die finnische Firma wirbt übrigens damit, dass sie den dänischen Streitkräften die Wollsocken für Grönland geliefert hat...
sukkamestarit.com/de-eu/produc...
January 5, 2026 at 4:37 PM
Reposted by Minna Ålander 🌻
😮 For socks!

"The four-year contract is worth at least €4 million, but it can go up to €10.5 million."
January 5, 2026 at 6:25 PM
My friends at the Nordic Ukraine Forum are doing such a good job that Russia felt obliged to honour them !
Nordic Ukraine Forum has been added to russia’s list of undesirable organizations.

A major accomplishment. I’ve never been more proud of our work!

🇺🇦💛💙🇸🇪 @nordicukraine.bsky.social
January 5, 2026 at 9:42 PM
Reposted by Minna Ålander 🌻
Nordic Ukraine Forum has been added to russia’s list of undesirable organizations.

A major accomplishment. I’ve never been more proud of our work!

🇺🇦💛💙🇸🇪 @nordicukraine.bsky.social
January 5, 2026 at 8:26 PM
Reposted by Minna Ålander 🌻
This video, viewed millions of times on TikTok, Facebook and X, claims to show Venezuelans taking to the street to thank the US for detaining Maduro.

But the video is a combination of four AI-generated clips and was first posted on TikTok by a user who frequently shares AI videos. It's not real.
January 4, 2026 at 7:39 PM
Reposted by Minna Ålander 🌻
What happens when the formerly benign hegemon turns hostile? Other powers have options - but not all realist options are realistic.

My new piece for Geopolitical Europe:

geopoliticaleurope.substack.com/p/hegemonic-...
Hegemonic hostility: Europe's realist(ic) options
5 January 2026
geopoliticaleurope.substack.com
January 5, 2026 at 7:27 AM
Reposted by Minna Ålander 🌻
We're hiring!
We are seeking an Early Career Policy Fellow to work on Nuclear Deterrence, Behavioural Bias, and UK Nuclear Policy.
UK-based remote
Fixed Term Contract: 18 months, 37.5 hours per week
£43,334.54
Apply by 9th January 2026
Details below ⤵️
europeanleadershipnetwork.org/job/early-ca...
Early Career Policy Fellow – Nuclear Deterrence, Behavioural Bias & UK Nuclear Policy
Purpose of Role: The European Leadership Network (ELN) is seeking to appoint an early-career Policy Fellow to join two new research and engagement projects examining nuclear deterrence through...
europeanleadershipnetwork.org
December 17, 2025 at 4:17 PM
Reposted by Minna Ålander 🌻
This is a masterclass of "IR theory in emojis":
International Relation Theory, the 👍 & 👎 of this options :

🌊🏄‍♀️ Soft balancing
🚂🚃 Bandwagoning
👉🇮🇳 Hedging
🙈🙊 Hiding
🙇‍♂️😒 Accommodation

🛡🦔 Or Smart combination ( #StrategicAutonomy, De-risking, Internal balancing & Rearmament + Acknowledge threats !)

[↓See the comment for a different perspective 🐘🧠]
What happens when the formerly benign hegemon turns hostile? Other powers have options - but not all realist options are realistic.

My new piece for Geopolitical Europe:

geopoliticaleurope.substack.com/p/hegemonic-...
January 5, 2026 at 4:32 PM
Good luck invading Greenland in February, the coldest month of the year
January 5, 2026 at 4:24 PM
Financial markets barely reacted to the US attack on Venezuela, ”because so many dramatic events happen in quick succession that the markets don’t have the time or energy to react anymore”

No wonder this is one of the newest emoji additions: 🫩
Analytiker: Attacken uppsida för ekonomin
Det är inte konstigt att börserna knappt reagerar när USA slår till mot Venezuela och kidnappar dess ledare. Men om konflikten sprider sig kan det få dramatiska konsekvenser. Särskilt ett hot skrämmer...
www.svd.se
January 5, 2026 at 4:12 PM
Reposted by Minna Ålander 🌻
When you are the Secretary of State, now President of Venezuela, and you already know you will be the new Ayatollah by spring.
January 3, 2026 at 5:03 PM
None of this makes any sense. Narco trafficking for me but not for thee
What was Honduras ex-president convicted of and why has Trump pardoned him? - BBC News
Juan Orlando Hernández, once called the key figure in a drug trafficking scheme that flooded America with cocaine, walked free after the pardon.
www.bbc.com
January 3, 2026 at 4:18 PM
Reposted by Minna Ålander 🌻
one thing about trump is he is always eager to say the quiet part loud
FOX & FRIENDS: What do you see as the future of Venezuela's oil industry?

TRUMP: Well I see that we're gonna be very strongly involved in it. That's all. What can I say. We have the greatest oil companies in the world.
January 3, 2026 at 3:09 PM
Reposted by Minna Ålander 🌻
Has anyone yet checked on Elbridge Colby if he is okay?
January 3, 2026 at 3:48 PM
Reposted by Minna Ålander 🌻
Trump's audacious and probably illegal capture of a Venezuelan leader of doubtful legality suggests he believes he has the right to intervene, i.e. grab what he wants, anywhere in the western hemisphere. Europe, already worried by Trump's Greenland rhetoric, has been warned
January 3, 2026 at 1:30 PM
Finland outlawed Russians from buying property with a clause that third country nationals whose country is involved in a war of aggression and poses a threat to Finland cannot buy property in Finland.

So if Trump also goes for Greenland, Americans would qualify for the ban too ? Whoops
January 3, 2026 at 3:37 PM
Last year, I was wondering if anyone in positions of power in Europe was thinking about the possibility that a time may come when European countries would need to put sanctions on the US, either for domestic civil rights violations or some kind of a war Trump will start.

Now would be the time. Alas
January 3, 2026 at 3:10 PM
Well
Reading headlines about the US massing forces to Venezuela and ”what is Trump’s aim with the troops ?” reminds me of a certain other country that massed troops at a neighbour’s border 4 years ago and headlines were wondering what Putin’s aim could possibly be
January 3, 2026 at 10:46 AM
Well at least this time the latest anchor dragging incident in the gulf of Finland can’t be blamed on bad weather
Elisan merikaapeliyhteys Suomenlahdella vaurioitunut, myös Virossa kaapelivaurioita – alueella liikkunut Fitburg-alus otettu haltuun
Elisan tietoliikennekaapeli on vaurioitunut Helsingin ja Tallinnan välillä.
yle.fi
December 31, 2025 at 2:55 PM
Reposted by Minna Ålander 🌻
Swedish New Year Resolution: Kalmar Union by 2028

Another feature article investigating the merits of a Nordic Union, potential forms of governance, and challenges.

And yes, in the presented scenario of unifying to deter a looming Russian invasion, Jens Stoltenberg is the Federal Chancellor.
2028-scenariot: Nordisk stat inväntar rysk attack
Allt fler talar om ett enat Norden. Men hur skulle en nordisk förbundsstat se ut? Monarki eller republik? Stormakt eller lilleputt? SvD utforskar en gammal tankelek som tycks bli allt mer verklig.
www.svd.se
December 28, 2025 at 10:25 AM
It seems to have become a regular holiday feature in the Swedish newspaper SvD to publish long and dreamy articles about a Nordic union (they even got a name for it: Norden).

Among the nice things we could have they list Jens Stoltenberg as a federal chancellor
2028-scenariot: Nordisk stat inväntar rysk attack
Allt fler talar om ett enat Norden. Men hur skulle en nordisk förbundsstat se ut? Monarki eller republik? Stormakt eller lilleputt? SvD utforskar en gammal tankelek som tycks bli allt mer verklig.
www.svd.se
December 28, 2025 at 10:37 AM
Reposted by Minna Ålander 🌻
Echoing similar earlier statements by ECB officials.
It’s interesting how the risk awareness that dependence on US systems - be it in digital services, defence, or payment methods - has been internalised fairly quickly in Europe.

National Bank of Sweden chief says Sweden is too dependent on MasterCard and Visa and needs non-American alternatives
Riksbankschef Erik Thedéen: Sverige för beroende av amerikanska kreditkortsföretag - Ekot
Riksbankschef Erik Thedéen anser att Sveriges betalsystem är för beroende av amerikanska kreditkortsföretag som Mastercard och Visa.I nuläget tycker Erik ...
www.sverigesradio.se
December 27, 2025 at 4:36 PM
Reposted by Minna Ålander 🌻
I expect to see a lot more tangible signs of "de-risking" vis-a-vis the United States in 2026.
It’s interesting how the risk awareness that dependence on US systems - be it in digital services, defence, or payment methods - has been internalised fairly quickly in Europe.

National Bank of Sweden chief says Sweden is too dependent on MasterCard and Visa and needs non-American alternatives
Riksbankschef Erik Thedéen: Sverige för beroende av amerikanska kreditkortsföretag - Ekot
Riksbankschef Erik Thedéen anser att Sveriges betalsystem är för beroende av amerikanska kreditkortsföretag som Mastercard och Visa.I nuläget tycker Erik ...
www.sverigesradio.se
December 27, 2025 at 8:43 PM
Me too. Finns had picnics overlooking the ship and went to wave goodbye when it left… it was live-streamed…

Good old times 3 years ago
God damn it, I’m old enough to remember when the USS Kearsage was docked in Stockholm in advance of Sweden’s accession to NATO
December 27, 2025 at 4:25 PM
It’s interesting how the risk awareness that dependence on US systems - be it in digital services, defence, or payment methods - has been internalised fairly quickly in Europe.

National Bank of Sweden chief says Sweden is too dependent on MasterCard and Visa and needs non-American alternatives
Riksbankschef Erik Thedéen: Sverige för beroende av amerikanska kreditkortsföretag - Ekot
Riksbankschef Erik Thedéen anser att Sveriges betalsystem är för beroende av amerikanska kreditkortsföretag som Mastercard och Visa.I nuläget tycker Erik ...
www.sverigesradio.se
December 27, 2025 at 4:01 PM