Ed Kelly
@edmundkelly.bsky.social
PhD student at Oxford, researching political attitudes and psychology. Website: https://edmund-kelly.github.io/
Reposted by Ed Kelly
Fascinating paper by @grattonecon.bsky.social, @bartonelee2.bsky.social, and Hasin Yousaf!
The paper addresses a fundamental question: Why do some democracies chronically avoid ambitious, long-term reforms even when they have decent institutions?
They argue that what matters is not only
The paper addresses a fundamental question: Why do some democracies chronically avoid ambitious, long-term reforms even when they have decent institutions?
They argue that what matters is not only
November 3, 2025 at 8:14 PM
Fascinating paper by @grattonecon.bsky.social, @bartonelee2.bsky.social, and Hasin Yousaf!
The paper addresses a fundamental question: Why do some democracies chronically avoid ambitious, long-term reforms even when they have decent institutions?
They argue that what matters is not only
The paper addresses a fundamental question: Why do some democracies chronically avoid ambitious, long-term reforms even when they have decent institutions?
They argue that what matters is not only
Reposted by Ed Kelly
Although not yet available to read (January 2026!), very happy to see our book on political trust online. Co-edited with @mfair.bsky.social and available open access, we think it'll be a useful addition to the field.
www.e-elgar.com/shop/gbp/a-r...
www.e-elgar.com/shop/gbp/a-r...
October 20, 2025 at 10:29 AM
Although not yet available to read (January 2026!), very happy to see our book on political trust online. Co-edited with @mfair.bsky.social and available open access, we think it'll be a useful addition to the field.
www.e-elgar.com/shop/gbp/a-r...
www.e-elgar.com/shop/gbp/a-r...
Reposted by Ed Kelly
How common are “survey professionals” - people who take dozens of online surveys for pay - across online panels, and do they harm data quality?
Our paper, FirstView at @politicalanalysis.bsky.social, tackles this question using browsing data from three U.S. samples (Facebook, YouGov, and Lucid):
Our paper, FirstView at @politicalanalysis.bsky.social, tackles this question using browsing data from three U.S. samples (Facebook, YouGov, and Lucid):
October 7, 2025 at 6:49 PM
How common are “survey professionals” - people who take dozens of online surveys for pay - across online panels, and do they harm data quality?
Our paper, FirstView at @politicalanalysis.bsky.social, tackles this question using browsing data from three U.S. samples (Facebook, YouGov, and Lucid):
Our paper, FirstView at @politicalanalysis.bsky.social, tackles this question using browsing data from three U.S. samples (Facebook, YouGov, and Lucid):
Reposted by Ed Kelly
Let me add this forthcoming paper by Besley et al (in the @qjeharvard.bsky.social), which, I think, provides a nice micro-foundation for between-cohort variation in zero-sum attitudes. They define “growth experience” as the average GDP growth an individual has lived through since birth, weighted by
October 6, 2025 at 9:44 AM
Let me add this forthcoming paper by Besley et al (in the @qjeharvard.bsky.social), which, I think, provides a nice micro-foundation for between-cohort variation in zero-sum attitudes. They define “growth experience” as the average GDP growth an individual has lived through since birth, weighted by
Reposted by Ed Kelly
Very pleased to say my new article is out @polstudies.bsky.social ! In it I compare single individuals to those with partners with different past vote choices/party identifications and demonstrate that this is associated with an individual's own vote choice. doi.org/10.1177/0032...
Partner Effects and Gender Gaps in Vote Choice in the United Kingdom: Brexit and Subsequent Elections - Ceri Fowler, 2025
This article explores differences in voting behaviour between those that were single and those that had a Eurosceptic or Europhile partner at the United Kingdom...
doi.org
October 3, 2025 at 11:39 AM
Very pleased to say my new article is out @polstudies.bsky.social ! In it I compare single individuals to those with partners with different past vote choices/party identifications and demonstrate that this is associated with an individual's own vote choice. doi.org/10.1177/0032...
Reposted by Ed Kelly
🤔 Do surveys exaggerate democratic support due to social desirability bias (SDB)?
➡️ Using survey-mode variation & list experiments in 24 countries, @pcmagalhaes.bsky.social & @aarslew.bsky.social find no evidence that SDB inflates democratic attitudes www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView
➡️ Using survey-mode variation & list experiments in 24 countries, @pcmagalhaes.bsky.social & @aarslew.bsky.social find no evidence that SDB inflates democratic attitudes www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView
September 19, 2025 at 6:58 AM
🤔 Do surveys exaggerate democratic support due to social desirability bias (SDB)?
➡️ Using survey-mode variation & list experiments in 24 countries, @pcmagalhaes.bsky.social & @aarslew.bsky.social find no evidence that SDB inflates democratic attitudes www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView
➡️ Using survey-mode variation & list experiments in 24 countries, @pcmagalhaes.bsky.social & @aarslew.bsky.social find no evidence that SDB inflates democratic attitudes www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView
Reposted by Ed Kelly
Oh look, Labour has spent months targeting the wrong voters.
Labour's next biggest losses are to left-liberal parties (Liberal Democrats and Greens).
Reform's growth in support has mostly come from the Conservatives and non-voting (much less from Labour).
These reflect patterns of party-bloc voting that we saw in the 2024 UK GE: tinyurl.com/y5pv7thw
Reform's growth in support has mostly come from the Conservatives and non-voting (much less from Labour).
These reflect patterns of party-bloc voting that we saw in the 2024 UK GE: tinyurl.com/y5pv7thw
September 3, 2025 at 10:22 AM
Oh look, Labour has spent months targeting the wrong voters.
Reposted by Ed Kelly
Imagine asking people two questions -- whether each of these is a good or bad way to run a govt:
1) having a democratic political system
2) having a strong leader who does not have to bother with parliament and elections
What percent says *both* are good?
44%!
1) having a democratic political system
2) having a strong leader who does not have to bother with parliament and elections
What percent says *both* are good?
44%!
September 3, 2025 at 2:12 PM
Imagine asking people two questions -- whether each of these is a good or bad way to run a govt:
1) having a democratic political system
2) having a strong leader who does not have to bother with parliament and elections
What percent says *both* are good?
44%!
1) having a democratic political system
2) having a strong leader who does not have to bother with parliament and elections
What percent says *both* are good?
44%!
Reposted by Ed Kelly
✨Very happy to see my paper "Attitudinal ambivalence toward multiculturalism" out on @jeppjournal.bsky.social !
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
1/8 🧵
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
1/8 🧵
August 21, 2025 at 12:37 PM
✨Very happy to see my paper "Attitudinal ambivalence toward multiculturalism" out on @jeppjournal.bsky.social !
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
1/8 🧵
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
1/8 🧵
Reposted by Ed Kelly
I'm recruiting 2 PhD researchers to work with me on a project studying how social groups influence vote choices!
Info on the position and how to apply 👉 www.kuleuven.be/personeel/jo...
Please share with interested students who would like to move to beautiful Leuven!
Info on the position and how to apply 👉 www.kuleuven.be/personeel/jo...
Please share with interested students who would like to move to beautiful Leuven!
2 PhD positions in Electoral behavior
2 PhD positions to research how social group memberships become connected to vote choices
www.kuleuven.be
June 3, 2025 at 7:35 AM
I'm recruiting 2 PhD researchers to work with me on a project studying how social groups influence vote choices!
Info on the position and how to apply 👉 www.kuleuven.be/personeel/jo...
Please share with interested students who would like to move to beautiful Leuven!
Info on the position and how to apply 👉 www.kuleuven.be/personeel/jo...
Please share with interested students who would like to move to beautiful Leuven!
Reposted by Ed Kelly
New preprint w/ @grahn.bsky.social & @joenoonan.se
What happens when the world's most powerful democracy rolls back core liberal values? 🇺🇸
In this paper, we show how US liberal retrenchment, especially on women’s rights & LGBTQ+ equality, damages US global standing.
📄 doi.org/10.31219/osf...
What happens when the world's most powerful democracy rolls back core liberal values? 🇺🇸
In this paper, we show how US liberal retrenchment, especially on women’s rights & LGBTQ+ equality, damages US global standing.
📄 doi.org/10.31219/osf...
May 28, 2025 at 8:08 AM
New preprint w/ @grahn.bsky.social & @joenoonan.se
What happens when the world's most powerful democracy rolls back core liberal values? 🇺🇸
In this paper, we show how US liberal retrenchment, especially on women’s rights & LGBTQ+ equality, damages US global standing.
📄 doi.org/10.31219/osf...
What happens when the world's most powerful democracy rolls back core liberal values? 🇺🇸
In this paper, we show how US liberal retrenchment, especially on women’s rights & LGBTQ+ equality, damages US global standing.
📄 doi.org/10.31219/osf...
Reposted by Ed Kelly
This is a very interesting observational paper for those working on gendered dynamics of far-right, descriptive rep & femonationalism
Does women's descriptive rep. lower anti-gender discourse among far-right? No, it *increases* it (according to parl speech data 2009-2023)
doi.org/10.1177/1465...
Does women's descriptive rep. lower anti-gender discourse among far-right? No, it *increases* it (according to parl speech data 2009-2023)
doi.org/10.1177/1465...
May 26, 2025 at 11:14 AM
This is a very interesting observational paper for those working on gendered dynamics of far-right, descriptive rep & femonationalism
Does women's descriptive rep. lower anti-gender discourse among far-right? No, it *increases* it (according to parl speech data 2009-2023)
doi.org/10.1177/1465...
Does women's descriptive rep. lower anti-gender discourse among far-right? No, it *increases* it (according to parl speech data 2009-2023)
doi.org/10.1177/1465...
Reposted by Ed Kelly
🚨 working paper (w. @morganlcj.bsky.social @markuswagner.bsky.social): Protesters are not judged equally - even if tactics of groups are similar.
We ran an experiment in 🇩🇪 testing how people react to farmers vs. climate activists blocking roads.
What we find is disturbing:
osf.io/preprints/os...
We ran an experiment in 🇩🇪 testing how people react to farmers vs. climate activists blocking roads.
What we find is disturbing:
osf.io/preprints/os...
May 16, 2025 at 12:59 PM
🚨 working paper (w. @morganlcj.bsky.social @markuswagner.bsky.social): Protesters are not judged equally - even if tactics of groups are similar.
We ran an experiment in 🇩🇪 testing how people react to farmers vs. climate activists blocking roads.
What we find is disturbing:
osf.io/preprints/os...
We ran an experiment in 🇩🇪 testing how people react to farmers vs. climate activists blocking roads.
What we find is disturbing:
osf.io/preprints/os...
Reposted by Ed Kelly
What an extremely relevant graph for what happened yesterday
BONUS GRAPH
In 2024, Reform voters strongly disliked Labour – and vice versa.
Supporters of other left-liberal parties also disliked Reform.
It seems hard for Labour to make Reform voters like them (if they even could) without alienating their current or potential base…
In 2024, Reform voters strongly disliked Labour – and vice versa.
Supporters of other left-liberal parties also disliked Reform.
It seems hard for Labour to make Reform voters like them (if they even could) without alienating their current or potential base…
May 13, 2025 at 9:41 AM
What an extremely relevant graph for what happened yesterday
Does political trust cause political participation?
In this paper, James Tilley, Sven Oskarsson and I use twin data to argue that the correlation is largely explained by confounding with family background.
Just accepted @thejop.bsky.social:
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
In this paper, James Tilley, Sven Oskarsson and I use twin data to argue that the correlation is largely explained by confounding with family background.
Just accepted @thejop.bsky.social:
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
Revisiting the link between political trust and political participation | The Journal of Politics: Vol 0, No ja
www.journals.uchicago.edu
May 6, 2025 at 4:08 PM
Does political trust cause political participation?
In this paper, James Tilley, Sven Oskarsson and I use twin data to argue that the correlation is largely explained by confounding with family background.
Just accepted @thejop.bsky.social:
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
In this paper, James Tilley, Sven Oskarsson and I use twin data to argue that the correlation is largely explained by confounding with family background.
Just accepted @thejop.bsky.social:
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
Reposted by Ed Kelly
Moving right on immigration: no evidence that it weakens the far right
Cutting social and public spending: solid evidence that it strengthens the far right
So what does the Labour party - obsessing over the threat by Reform - do? Moves right on immigration and cuts social spending
Cutting social and public spending: solid evidence that it strengthens the far right
So what does the Labour party - obsessing over the threat by Reform - do? Moves right on immigration and cuts social spending
March 11, 2025 at 10:35 AM
Moving right on immigration: no evidence that it weakens the far right
Cutting social and public spending: solid evidence that it strengthens the far right
So what does the Labour party - obsessing over the threat by Reform - do? Moves right on immigration and cuts social spending
Cutting social and public spending: solid evidence that it strengthens the far right
So what does the Labour party - obsessing over the threat by Reform - do? Moves right on immigration and cuts social spending
Reposted by Ed Kelly
New research alert! Our study investigates the effectiveness of human-only, AI-assisted, and AI-led teams in assessing the reproducibility of quantitative social science research. We've got some surprising findings!
January 22, 2025 at 2:23 AM
New research alert! Our study investigates the effectiveness of human-only, AI-assisted, and AI-led teams in assessing the reproducibility of quantitative social science research. We've got some surprising findings!
Happy to share that my paper (w/ James Tilley) is now out in @bjpols.bsky.social
We show that expenses misconduct by British MPs was not associated with political distrust among their constituents.
Open access here: doi.org/10.1017/S000...
We show that expenses misconduct by British MPs was not associated with political distrust among their constituents.
Open access here: doi.org/10.1017/S000...
#OpenAccess from our latest issue -
Misconduct by Voters' Own Representatives Does Not Affect Voters' Generalized Political Trust - cup.org/40ZhYsp
- Edmund Kelly & James Tilley
Misconduct by Voters' Own Representatives Does Not Affect Voters' Generalized Political Trust - cup.org/40ZhYsp
- Edmund Kelly & James Tilley
February 7, 2025 at 2:13 PM
Happy to share that my paper (w/ James Tilley) is now out in @bjpols.bsky.social
We show that expenses misconduct by British MPs was not associated with political distrust among their constituents.
Open access here: doi.org/10.1017/S000...
We show that expenses misconduct by British MPs was not associated with political distrust among their constituents.
Open access here: doi.org/10.1017/S000...
Reposted by Ed Kelly
I'm assisting @robfordmancs.bsky.social in organising this ECR event for UK in a Changing Europe.
Get your papers in, come to Manchester, enjoy the rain, have a drink, go home, tell your mates how good it was.
Get your papers in, come to Manchester, enjoy the rain, have a drink, go home, tell your mates how good it was.
January 27, 2025 at 2:53 PM
I'm assisting @robfordmancs.bsky.social in organising this ECR event for UK in a Changing Europe.
Get your papers in, come to Manchester, enjoy the rain, have a drink, go home, tell your mates how good it was.
Get your papers in, come to Manchester, enjoy the rain, have a drink, go home, tell your mates how good it was.
Reposted by Ed Kelly
We are hiring a Postdoctoral student for our AI program.
15-month position to start Spring 2024 – 75 000 USD per year. The work can be done remotely or in Ottawa, Canada. Travel funding will also be provided.
Applications to be submitted to Abel Brodeur abrodeur@uottawa.ca
15-month position to start Spring 2024 – 75 000 USD per year. The work can be done remotely or in Ottawa, Canada. Travel funding will also be provided.
Applications to be submitted to Abel Brodeur abrodeur@uottawa.ca
March 4, 2024 at 10:30 AM
We are hiring a Postdoctoral student for our AI program.
15-month position to start Spring 2024 – 75 000 USD per year. The work can be done remotely or in Ottawa, Canada. Travel funding will also be provided.
Applications to be submitted to Abel Brodeur abrodeur@uottawa.ca
15-month position to start Spring 2024 – 75 000 USD per year. The work can be done remotely or in Ottawa, Canada. Travel funding will also be provided.
Applications to be submitted to Abel Brodeur abrodeur@uottawa.ca
Reposted by Ed Kelly
What else can you call this but fascism? What would you say if you saw it in another country? www.cnn.com/2023/12/16/p...
December 16, 2023 at 10:20 PM
What else can you call this but fascism? What would you say if you saw it in another country? www.cnn.com/2023/12/16/p...
Reposted by Ed Kelly
An interesting paper on support for long-term policy making (journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....), with evidence that political trust matters for boosting support.
Alternative evidence to a recent paper of mine (osf.io/7hazf) that finds a null effect. 🌐
Alternative evidence to a recent paper of mine (osf.io/7hazf) that finds a null effect. 🌐
December 6, 2023 at 9:43 AM
An interesting paper on support for long-term policy making (journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....), with evidence that political trust matters for boosting support.
Alternative evidence to a recent paper of mine (osf.io/7hazf) that finds a null effect. 🌐
Alternative evidence to a recent paper of mine (osf.io/7hazf) that finds a null effect. 🌐
Very pleased to see our work on social values published as part of UK in a Changing Europe's new public opinion report (ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/u...).
Here's a thread from @leonardocarella.bsky.social summarizing our main findings:
Here's a thread from @leonardocarella.bsky.social summarizing our main findings:
Glad to see my work with @edmundkelly.bsky.social on social values out as part of UK in a Changing Europe's report on the State of Public Opinion. ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/u...
ukandeu.ac.uk
December 5, 2023 at 5:50 PM
Very pleased to see our work on social values published as part of UK in a Changing Europe's new public opinion report (ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/u...).
Here's a thread from @leonardocarella.bsky.social summarizing our main findings:
Here's a thread from @leonardocarella.bsky.social summarizing our main findings:
Reposted by Ed Kelly
🚨Do echo chambers polarize? Yes! 🚨Very excited that our paper “The Polarizing Effect of Partisan Echo Chambers” w @sarahobolt.bsky.social and James Tilley has been published FirstView at APSR! Link: www.cambridge.org/core/journal... Thread 👇1/n
December 1, 2023 at 6:05 PM
🚨Do echo chambers polarize? Yes! 🚨Very excited that our paper “The Polarizing Effect of Partisan Echo Chambers” w @sarahobolt.bsky.social and James Tilley has been published FirstView at APSR! Link: www.cambridge.org/core/journal... Thread 👇1/n
Reposted by Ed Kelly
New sociogenomics WP!
Does family SES moderate the impact of children’s genetic predisposition for (non)cognitive skills on educational outcomes?
2nd WP of my thesis by a strong interdisciplinary team: Gil-Hernández, @fabriberna.bsky.social, van Bergen @perlinedemange.bsky.social! ✨
Does family SES moderate the impact of children’s genetic predisposition for (non)cognitive skills on educational outcomes?
2nd WP of my thesis by a strong interdisciplinary team: Gil-Hernández, @fabriberna.bsky.social, van Bergen @perlinedemange.bsky.social! ✨
Interaction of family SES with children’s genetic propensity for cognitive and noncognitive skills...
This study examines the role of genes and environments in predicting educational outcomes. We test the Scarr-Rowe hypothesis, suggesting that enriched environments enable genetic potential to unfold, ...
publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu
November 30, 2023 at 11:50 AM
New sociogenomics WP!
Does family SES moderate the impact of children’s genetic predisposition for (non)cognitive skills on educational outcomes?
2nd WP of my thesis by a strong interdisciplinary team: Gil-Hernández, @fabriberna.bsky.social, van Bergen @perlinedemange.bsky.social! ✨
Does family SES moderate the impact of children’s genetic predisposition for (non)cognitive skills on educational outcomes?
2nd WP of my thesis by a strong interdisciplinary team: Gil-Hernández, @fabriberna.bsky.social, van Bergen @perlinedemange.bsky.social! ✨