James David Griffiths
@jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social
Research Fellow at the British Election Study, Wrexham and Wales fan
Pinned
The Brexit realignment amid electoral volatility: The role of party blocs in the 2024 General Election
Abstract. Brexit accelerated the long-term realignment of how demographic groups vote in Britain. However, Europe is no longer salient to voters, support f
academic.oup.com
🚨NEW PUBLICATION 🚨
Though people have moved on from Brexit, they still vote in line with their Brexit preferences - with age/education still separating voters.
Voters now back party blocs, which matters greatly for Labour's current appeals to Reform voters.
🧵
academic.oup.com/pa/advance-a...
Though people have moved on from Brexit, they still vote in line with their Brexit preferences - with age/education still separating voters.
Voters now back party blocs, which matters greatly for Labour's current appeals to Reform voters.
🧵
academic.oup.com/pa/advance-a...
Reposted by James David Griffiths
🚨 NEW in @bjpols.bsky.social : When Partygate hit Westminster, trust in Scottish politicians increased. Our experiments reveal a "contrast effect" - scandals at one level can make the other look better by comparison. Who lost most trust in Westminster? Scottish unionists. Read now #OpenAccess 👇
November 11, 2025 at 9:00 AM
🚨 NEW in @bjpols.bsky.social : When Partygate hit Westminster, trust in Scottish politicians increased. Our experiments reveal a "contrast effect" - scandals at one level can make the other look better by comparison. Who lost most trust in Westminster? Scottish unionists. Read now #OpenAccess 👇
Excellent blog, and equally excellent metaphor, on Caerphilly.
Welsh Labour really do have a mountain to climb ahead of May, and ignoring it won't make it easier.
Welsh Labour really do have a mountain to climb ahead of May, and ignoring it won't make it easier.
New blog
Cracks in the Stonehenge of Welsh Politics: Caerphilly and Labour’s Future
Read @nyedavies.bsky.social on why the result in Caerphilly should act as a wake-up call to Welsh Labour, despite many in the party having warned against reading too much into the defeat
Read more: edin.ac/4949g0m
Cracks in the Stonehenge of Welsh Politics: Caerphilly and Labour’s Future
Read @nyedavies.bsky.social on why the result in Caerphilly should act as a wake-up call to Welsh Labour, despite many in the party having warned against reading too much into the defeat
Read more: edin.ac/4949g0m
November 5, 2025 at 5:16 PM
Excellent blog, and equally excellent metaphor, on Caerphilly.
Welsh Labour really do have a mountain to climb ahead of May, and ignoring it won't make it easier.
Welsh Labour really do have a mountain to climb ahead of May, and ignoring it won't make it easier.
Reposted by James David Griffiths
NEWYDD - @jaclarner.bsky.social a minnau ar Etholiad 2024 yng Nghymru
NEW - Jac Larner and myself on the 2024 UK GE in 🏴
2024 UK General Election in Wales url: academic.oup.com/pa/article-a...
NEW - Jac Larner and myself on the 2024 UK GE in 🏴
2024 UK General Election in Wales url: academic.oup.com/pa/article-a...
The 2024 UK General Election in Wales
That Labour emerged victorious from the 2024 UK General Election in Wales must count among the least surprising political outcomes imaginable. It has, afte
academic.oup.com
October 31, 2025 at 10:13 AM
NEWYDD - @jaclarner.bsky.social a minnau ar Etholiad 2024 yng Nghymru
NEW - Jac Larner and myself on the 2024 UK GE in 🏴
2024 UK General Election in Wales url: academic.oup.com/pa/article-a...
NEW - Jac Larner and myself on the 2024 UK GE in 🏴
2024 UK General Election in Wales url: academic.oup.com/pa/article-a...
Reposted by James David Griffiths
It's also worth mentioning that Labour tried their *own* poll-like stunt weeks before the Camlas poll, arguably to a much higher degree of publicity than PC - if Hedges is right and the polls were mostly to blame then how much more money would they have to have spent on billboards to make it work?!
October 29, 2025 at 1:32 PM
It's also worth mentioning that Labour tried their *own* poll-like stunt weeks before the Camlas poll, arguably to a much higher degree of publicity than PC - if Hedges is right and the polls were mostly to blame then how much more money would they have to have spent on billboards to make it work?!
"We'd have won if not for those pesky polls"
Claiming Lab > Plaid switching is just about Reform is really unhelpful to Labour. Unhappy Labour voters have switched to Plaid in elections long before Reform (or UKIP) were on the scene.
And the rubbish about YouGov 🤯
labourhub.org.uk/2025/10/28/c...
Claiming Lab > Plaid switching is just about Reform is really unhelpful to Labour. Unhappy Labour voters have switched to Plaid in elections long before Reform (or UKIP) were on the scene.
And the rubbish about YouGov 🤯
labourhub.org.uk/2025/10/28/c...
October 29, 2025 at 10:45 AM
"We'd have won if not for those pesky polls"
Claiming Lab > Plaid switching is just about Reform is really unhelpful to Labour. Unhappy Labour voters have switched to Plaid in elections long before Reform (or UKIP) were on the scene.
And the rubbish about YouGov 🤯
labourhub.org.uk/2025/10/28/c...
Claiming Lab > Plaid switching is just about Reform is really unhelpful to Labour. Unhappy Labour voters have switched to Plaid in elections long before Reform (or UKIP) were on the scene.
And the rubbish about YouGov 🤯
labourhub.org.uk/2025/10/28/c...
If Labour’s takeaway from Caerphilly is ‘we’d have won but for anti-Reform tactical voting,’ they’re in for a rude awakening in May.
Even if true, how does that narrative help? Voters have a viable alternative, so waiting for them to return doesn't seem a good idea?
labourlist.org/2025/10/wayn...
Even if true, how does that narrative help? Voters have a viable alternative, so waiting for them to return doesn't seem a good idea?
labourlist.org/2025/10/wayn...
October 28, 2025 at 3:06 PM
If Labour’s takeaway from Caerphilly is ‘we’d have won but for anti-Reform tactical voting,’ they’re in for a rude awakening in May.
Even if true, how does that narrative help? Voters have a viable alternative, so waiting for them to return doesn't seem a good idea?
labourlist.org/2025/10/wayn...
Even if true, how does that narrative help? Voters have a viable alternative, so waiting for them to return doesn't seem a good idea?
labourlist.org/2025/10/wayn...
By-elections are always tough for incumbents, but this one (and national polls) show how badly Welsh Labour are struggling.
With the new proportional Senedd system making Plaid Cymru even more viable for disappointed Labour voters who reject Reform, we can expect plenty of within-bloc switching.
With the new proportional Senedd system making Plaid Cymru even more viable for disappointed Labour voters who reject Reform, we can expect plenty of within-bloc switching.
Who in my bloc can beat the threat on the other side?
Caerphilly election helps us understand bloc voting and viability.
Voters asking which party in their bloc is best placed to defeat a more disliked party. Viability absolutely critical, given polarisation and fragmentation.
Caerphilly election helps us understand bloc voting and viability.
Voters asking which party in their bloc is best placed to defeat a more disliked party. Viability absolutely critical, given polarisation and fragmentation.
October 24, 2025 at 8:14 AM
By-elections are always tough for incumbents, but this one (and national polls) show how badly Welsh Labour are struggling.
With the new proportional Senedd system making Plaid Cymru even more viable for disappointed Labour voters who reject Reform, we can expect plenty of within-bloc switching.
With the new proportional Senedd system making Plaid Cymru even more viable for disappointed Labour voters who reject Reform, we can expect plenty of within-bloc switching.
Some personal news
October 21, 2025 at 9:27 AM
Some personal news
Reposted by James David Griffiths
I've done deep-dive into latest @britishelectionstudy.com wave to explain rise of Reform:
- Who are their voters? (pretty working-class)
- What do they care about? (immigration)
- What do they want? (lower immigration)
- Plus why I think "accommodation doesn't work" needs more nuance
🧵 of results
- Who are their voters? (pretty working-class)
- What do they care about? (immigration)
- What do they want? (lower immigration)
- Plus why I think "accommodation doesn't work" needs more nuance
🧵 of results
Who is Voting Reform? And Why?
The who, what, when, how and huh of why Reform has gained so much support in such a short period of time
jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com
September 30, 2025 at 8:05 AM
I've done deep-dive into latest @britishelectionstudy.com wave to explain rise of Reform:
- Who are their voters? (pretty working-class)
- What do they care about? (immigration)
- What do they want? (lower immigration)
- Plus why I think "accommodation doesn't work" needs more nuance
🧵 of results
- Who are their voters? (pretty working-class)
- What do they care about? (immigration)
- What do they want? (lower immigration)
- Plus why I think "accommodation doesn't work" needs more nuance
🧵 of results
Reposted by James David Griffiths
NEW!
In Liverpool for Labour Conference...
Starmer is concentrating on Reform but Labour shouldn't mistake their threat on the right, even in Leave voting heartlands.
Our new analysis w/ @martamiori.bsky.social explains:
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/news-and-eve...
In Liverpool for Labour Conference...
Starmer is concentrating on Reform but Labour shouldn't mistake their threat on the right, even in Leave voting heartlands.
Our new analysis w/ @martamiori.bsky.social explains:
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/news-and-eve...
Article - Nuffield Politics Research Centre
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk
September 28, 2025 at 11:06 AM
NEW!
In Liverpool for Labour Conference...
Starmer is concentrating on Reform but Labour shouldn't mistake their threat on the right, even in Leave voting heartlands.
Our new analysis w/ @martamiori.bsky.social explains:
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/news-and-eve...
In Liverpool for Labour Conference...
Starmer is concentrating on Reform but Labour shouldn't mistake their threat on the right, even in Leave voting heartlands.
Our new analysis w/ @martamiori.bsky.social explains:
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/news-and-eve...
Reposted by James David Griffiths
Every year around this time, I get requests from students doing their Baccalauréat Francais International for help with their projects on sport and soft power.
All started from a conversation with @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social which led to me quickly writing this short blog a few years ago.
All started from a conversation with @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social which led to me quickly writing this short blog a few years ago.
Football as a weapon of soft power: The beautiful game hiding the ugly truth
sites.manchester.ac.uk
September 26, 2025 at 10:14 AM
Every year around this time, I get requests from students doing their Baccalauréat Francais International for help with their projects on sport and soft power.
All started from a conversation with @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social which led to me quickly writing this short blog a few years ago.
All started from a conversation with @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social which led to me quickly writing this short blog a few years ago.
Reposted by James David Griffiths
Featuring @britishelectionstudy.com data. And analysis by @martamiori.bsky.social, @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social and data story supported by me.
PESTON LIVE - 22/09/2025 👇
Join ITV’s Flagship Politics show
Tonight Robert Peston and Pippa Crerar will be joined by:
💼 James Murray MP
🔶 @eddavey.libdems.org.uk
🌏 Aaron David Miller
🌹 @bellribeiroaddy.bsky.social
➡️ Maria Caulfield
#Peston
youtube.com/live/P-ku4ly...
Join ITV’s Flagship Politics show
Tonight Robert Peston and Pippa Crerar will be joined by:
💼 James Murray MP
🔶 @eddavey.libdems.org.uk
🌏 Aaron David Miller
🌹 @bellribeiroaddy.bsky.social
➡️ Maria Caulfield
#Peston
youtube.com/live/P-ku4ly...
Recognition of Palestine | UK’s economic outlook | Reform’s latest immigration policy | ITV Peston
YouTube video by Peston
youtube.com
September 22, 2025 at 8:18 PM
Featuring @britishelectionstudy.com data. And analysis by @martamiori.bsky.social, @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social and data story supported by me.
To add to the interest of the Welsh election, there is an expanded Senedd and new electoral system in 2026!
Of wider relevance, polling from Wales suggests what can happen when Labour has a viable alternative on their left flank, given that people are more volatile now.
Of wider relevance, polling from Wales suggests what can happen when Labour has a viable alternative on their left flank, given that people are more volatile now.
Your Party is a story. 'Independents' may do better if Labour continue to be unpopular. But there's an extraordinary left (Plaid) - right (Reform) contest in Wales, a new Green leader a threat to Labour on left among financially insecure, Lib Dems solely speaking to issues of democracy w/ 72 MPs.
September 19, 2025 at 10:18 AM
To add to the interest of the Welsh election, there is an expanded Senedd and new electoral system in 2026!
Of wider relevance, polling from Wales suggests what can happen when Labour has a viable alternative on their left flank, given that people are more volatile now.
Of wider relevance, polling from Wales suggests what can happen when Labour has a viable alternative on their left flank, given that people are more volatile now.
Labour has been the largest party in Wales since 1922 (the longest success streak in any democracy).
That looks set to change in the next election, unless something incredibly dramatic happens.
This change is seismic on its own, but Labour should take heed for what it means for Westminster too.
That looks set to change in the next election, unless something incredibly dramatic happens.
This change is seismic on its own, but Labour should take heed for what it means for Westminster too.
Latest ITV BarnCymru 🏴 poll confirms trend seen over last 6 months - neck and neck race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK for largest party, with Labour falling to even more distant third. Evidence growing of distinct realignment in Wales 🧵
September 16, 2025 at 7:51 PM
Labour has been the largest party in Wales since 1922 (the longest success streak in any democracy).
That looks set to change in the next election, unless something incredibly dramatic happens.
This change is seismic on its own, but Labour should take heed for what it means for Westminster too.
That looks set to change in the next election, unless something incredibly dramatic happens.
This change is seismic on its own, but Labour should take heed for what it means for Westminster too.
Reposted by James David Griffiths
Latest ITV BarnCymru 🏴 poll confirms trend seen over last 6 months - neck and neck race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK for largest party, with Labour falling to even more distant third. Evidence growing of distinct realignment in Wales 🧵
September 16, 2025 at 4:47 PM
Latest ITV BarnCymru 🏴 poll confirms trend seen over last 6 months - neck and neck race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK for largest party, with Labour falling to even more distant third. Evidence growing of distinct realignment in Wales 🧵
Reposted by James David Griffiths
What Happened to Labour's 2024 Voters?
Using the recent wave of the @britishelectionstudy.com I look at people who voted Labour in 2024:
- How many are still with the party?
- How many have left?
- Why might that be?
TLDR: they've left because of economic issues/concerns, probably.
Using the recent wave of the @britishelectionstudy.com I look at people who voted Labour in 2024:
- How many are still with the party?
- How many have left?
- Why might that be?
TLDR: they've left because of economic issues/concerns, probably.
What Happened to Labour's 2024 Voters?
The who, what, when, how and huh of why Labour has lost so much support in such a short period of time
jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com
September 16, 2025 at 8:10 AM
What Happened to Labour's 2024 Voters?
Using the recent wave of the @britishelectionstudy.com I look at people who voted Labour in 2024:
- How many are still with the party?
- How many have left?
- Why might that be?
TLDR: they've left because of economic issues/concerns, probably.
Using the recent wave of the @britishelectionstudy.com I look at people who voted Labour in 2024:
- How many are still with the party?
- How many have left?
- Why might that be?
TLDR: they've left because of economic issues/concerns, probably.
It was really fun to talk to @matthewholehouse.bsky.social about our paper. Voters now separate political parties into left-liberal and right-conservative blocs, and most of the (extensive) vote switching that we saw in 2024 (and since) is within these blocs. This is really important going forward.
BES Research Fellow @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social has spoken with The Economist about our Parliamentary Affairs paper on how British voters are volatile, but their choices are now structured by party blocs after the Brexit realignment.
Read here: www.economist.com/britain/2025...
Read here: www.economist.com/britain/2025...
The new battle for Britain
Once elections were fought between left and right. Now the main fight is within these camps
www.economist.com
September 12, 2025 at 2:48 PM
It was really fun to talk to @matthewholehouse.bsky.social about our paper. Voters now separate political parties into left-liberal and right-conservative blocs, and most of the (extensive) vote switching that we saw in 2024 (and since) is within these blocs. This is really important going forward.
Reposted by James David Griffiths
Whichever councillor in West Oxfordshire compared a solar farm to Aberfan should feel absolutely ashamed of themselves. A completely disgraceful comparison for which they should apologise.
A solar farm that could have powered “all the households in Witney” has been refused permission by West Oxfordshire District Council. Councillors were concerned about the risk of fire, one drawing parallels to the 1966 Aberfan disaster: “Until someone can guarantee it is safe, I can’t support it.”
September 9, 2025 at 12:23 PM
Whichever councillor in West Oxfordshire compared a solar farm to Aberfan should feel absolutely ashamed of themselves. A completely disgraceful comparison for which they should apologise.
Reposted by James David Griffiths
🚨DATA RELEASE 🚨
The BES team are pleased to announce the release of Wave 30 of the British Election Study Internet Panel.
Please follow the link below, and we look forward to seeing your research!
www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-resource...
The BES team are pleased to announce the release of Wave 30 of the British Election Study Internet Panel.
Please follow the link below, and we look forward to seeing your research!
www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-resource...
Release Note: British Election Study Internet Panel Wave 30 - The British Election Study
www.britishelectionstudy.com
September 6, 2025 at 1:21 PM
🚨DATA RELEASE 🚨
The BES team are pleased to announce the release of Wave 30 of the British Election Study Internet Panel.
Please follow the link below, and we look forward to seeing your research!
www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-resource...
The BES team are pleased to announce the release of Wave 30 of the British Election Study Internet Panel.
Please follow the link below, and we look forward to seeing your research!
www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-resource...
Reposted by James David Griffiths
Oh look, Labour has spent months targeting the wrong voters.
Labour's next biggest losses are to left-liberal parties (Liberal Democrats and Greens).
Reform's growth in support has mostly come from the Conservatives and non-voting (much less from Labour).
These reflect patterns of party-bloc voting that we saw in the 2024 UK GE: tinyurl.com/y5pv7thw
Reform's growth in support has mostly come from the Conservatives and non-voting (much less from Labour).
These reflect patterns of party-bloc voting that we saw in the 2024 UK GE: tinyurl.com/y5pv7thw
September 3, 2025 at 10:22 AM
Oh look, Labour has spent months targeting the wrong voters.
Interested in Labour's lost voters since the 2024 UK GE?
Want to get a sneak peak at some of the results from wave 30 of the BESIP before it is released?
Then we have a new blog for you! 👇👇
Want to get a sneak peak at some of the results from wave 30 of the BESIP before it is released?
Then we have a new blog for you! 👇👇
🚨New Research 🚨
Ahead of the release of Wave 30 of the BES Internet Panel, the team has examined Labour's decline since the 2024 GE.
Labour's support has splintered into mostly indecision or left-liberal parties, but they've also lost their few right-wing voters.
🧵⬇️
tinyurl.com/3m62exph
Ahead of the release of Wave 30 of the BES Internet Panel, the team has examined Labour's decline since the 2024 GE.
Labour's support has splintered into mostly indecision or left-liberal parties, but they've also lost their few right-wing voters.
🧵⬇️
tinyurl.com/3m62exph
Looking for Labour’s lost voters - The British Election Study
www.britishelectionstudy.com
September 3, 2025 at 10:18 AM
Interested in Labour's lost voters since the 2024 UK GE?
Want to get a sneak peak at some of the results from wave 30 of the BESIP before it is released?
Then we have a new blog for you! 👇👇
Want to get a sneak peak at some of the results from wave 30 of the BESIP before it is released?
Then we have a new blog for you! 👇👇
Reposted by James David Griffiths
Day 4 of #ecprgc25! Had a wonderful feast with a local friend and am enjoying a drink by the sea with @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social!
August 28, 2025 at 5:36 PM
Day 4 of #ecprgc25! Had a wonderful feast with a local friend and am enjoying a drink by the sea with @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social!
Reposted by James David Griffiths
🚨 Ymateb i'r cyhoeddiad am gyllid rheilffyrdd i Gymru gan dîm Dadansoddi Cyllid Cymru 🚝
🚨 Our Wales Fiscal Analysis team’s response to today’s rail funding announcement for Wales 🚝
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
🚨 Our Wales Fiscal Analysis team’s response to today’s rail funding announcement for Wales 🚝
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
Wales Fiscal Analysis: immediate response to rail funding announcement for Wales
Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk
June 11, 2025 at 7:50 PM
🚨 Ymateb i'r cyhoeddiad am gyllid rheilffyrdd i Gymru gan dîm Dadansoddi Cyllid Cymru 🚝
🚨 Our Wales Fiscal Analysis team’s response to today’s rail funding announcement for Wales 🚝
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
🚨 Our Wales Fiscal Analysis team’s response to today’s rail funding announcement for Wales 🚝
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
Reposted by James David Griffiths
I spoke to BBC Radio 4's Jim Naughtie yesterday on The World This Weekend.
If you want to understand the long-term context for why British politics is becoming more fragmented - why party choice is splintering - here's what I said:
www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...
@britishelectionstudy.com
If you want to understand the long-term context for why British politics is becoming more fragmented - why party choice is splintering - here's what I said:
www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...
@britishelectionstudy.com
The World This Weekend - Reform UK: how other parties react to a changing political landscape - BBC Sounds
The changing geology of UK politics: how the other parties combat the surge of Reform UK.
www.bbc.co.uk
June 9, 2025 at 10:10 AM
I spoke to BBC Radio 4's Jim Naughtie yesterday on The World This Weekend.
If you want to understand the long-term context for why British politics is becoming more fragmented - why party choice is splintering - here's what I said:
www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...
@britishelectionstudy.com
If you want to understand the long-term context for why British politics is becoming more fragmented - why party choice is splintering - here's what I said:
www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...
@britishelectionstudy.com
Reposted by James David Griffiths
Great write up of their fascinating research on the different time horizons of politicians and voters by @qmpoliticsir.bsky.social's finest, @philipjcowley.bsky.social , @mbarnfield.bsky.social and @karlpike.bsky.social
What do we want? Everything. When do we want it? Right now!
It turns out that we voters may be to blame for the UK’s short-termism
www.ft.com
June 6, 2025 at 4:43 PM
Great write up of their fascinating research on the different time horizons of politicians and voters by @qmpoliticsir.bsky.social's finest, @philipjcowley.bsky.social , @mbarnfield.bsky.social and @karlpike.bsky.social