James David Griffiths
@jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social
Research Fellow at the British Election Study, Wrexham and Wales fan
Pinned
Consolidation, Not Conversion: Understanding Wales’s Ongoing Realignment
Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk
🚨 NEW BLOG
Labour have won every election in Wales for 100 years, but they are on track to (badly) lose the 2026 Senedd election - why?
@jaclarner.bsky.social and I have looked at new data, which shows how support is shifting within (not between) Wales's blocs!
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
Labour have won every election in Wales for 100 years, but they are on track to (badly) lose the 2026 Senedd election - why?
@jaclarner.bsky.social and I have looked at new data, which shows how support is shifting within (not between) Wales's blocs!
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
Reposted by James David Griffiths
🚨New article in @electoralstudies.bsky.social🚨
New method using open-text survey, parliament speech analysis & conjoint experiment to detect policies/issues where all of:
1) bottom-up public demand
2) elites are neglecting it
3) would motivate vote choice if party adopt it
tinyurl.com/44ryyybc
🧵
New method using open-text survey, parliament speech analysis & conjoint experiment to detect policies/issues where all of:
1) bottom-up public demand
2) elites are neglecting it
3) would motivate vote choice if party adopt it
tinyurl.com/44ryyybc
🧵
January 19, 2026 at 9:28 AM
🚨New article in @electoralstudies.bsky.social🚨
New method using open-text survey, parliament speech analysis & conjoint experiment to detect policies/issues where all of:
1) bottom-up public demand
2) elites are neglecting it
3) would motivate vote choice if party adopt it
tinyurl.com/44ryyybc
🧵
New method using open-text survey, parliament speech analysis & conjoint experiment to detect policies/issues where all of:
1) bottom-up public demand
2) elites are neglecting it
3) would motivate vote choice if party adopt it
tinyurl.com/44ryyybc
🧵
Good to see Labour politicians talking about blocs!
labourlist.org/2026/01/avoi...
If you want to know more, you can read our article introducing the idea in Britain here: academic.oup.com/pa/article/7...
Also Green and Miori's excellent work here: journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...
labourlist.org/2026/01/avoi...
If you want to know more, you can read our article introducing the idea in Britain here: academic.oup.com/pa/article/7...
Also Green and Miori's excellent work here: journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...
'Avoiding the iceberg' - LabourList
Labour’s polling crisis isn’t about Reform voters but losing progressives. To avoid electoral collapse, the party must clarify its values and unite its bloc.
labourlist.org
January 14, 2026 at 7:53 PM
Good to see Labour politicians talking about blocs!
labourlist.org/2026/01/avoi...
If you want to know more, you can read our article introducing the idea in Britain here: academic.oup.com/pa/article/7...
Also Green and Miori's excellent work here: journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...
labourlist.org/2026/01/avoi...
If you want to know more, you can read our article introducing the idea in Britain here: academic.oup.com/pa/article/7...
Also Green and Miori's excellent work here: journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...
Reform are still toxic to many voters in 🏴. Too right-wing for most Labour voters, too British for most SNP voters
That leaves them just taking votes off Tories, who already get fewer votes in 🏴 than 🏴 or 🏴
Scotland isn't a "no-go" zone, but Reform's voters will mostly be from the British/Right
That leaves them just taking votes off Tories, who already get fewer votes in 🏴 than 🏴 or 🏴
Scotland isn't a "no-go" zone, but Reform's voters will mostly be from the British/Right
David Cowling on the idea that Scotland will be a “no-go” area for populist parties such as Reform docs.google.com/document/d/1...
December 29, 2025 at 2:08 PM
Reform are still toxic to many voters in 🏴. Too right-wing for most Labour voters, too British for most SNP voters
That leaves them just taking votes off Tories, who already get fewer votes in 🏴 than 🏴 or 🏴
Scotland isn't a "no-go" zone, but Reform's voters will mostly be from the British/Right
That leaves them just taking votes off Tories, who already get fewer votes in 🏴 than 🏴 or 🏴
Scotland isn't a "no-go" zone, but Reform's voters will mostly be from the British/Right
Reposted by James David Griffiths
This graph from @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social et al's paper (free to read!) academic.oup.com/pa/article/7... - shows within bloc switching was higher than across bloc switching in 2015, 2017 and 2024:
December 29, 2025 at 11:49 AM
This graph from @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social et al's paper (free to read!) academic.oup.com/pa/article/7... - shows within bloc switching was higher than across bloc switching in 2015, 2017 and 2024:
Reposted by James David Griffiths
🧵 Thread on new research on gender gaps in “don’t know” responses
Some of you will know that my stellar coauthors @hannahbunting.bsky.social @cerifowler.bsky.social @jess-smith.bsky.social @annasanders.bsky.social & I have been working on a large-scale project on “don’t know” responses in surveys.
Some of you will know that my stellar coauthors @hannahbunting.bsky.social @cerifowler.bsky.social @jess-smith.bsky.social @annasanders.bsky.social & I have been working on a large-scale project on “don’t know” responses in surveys.
December 17, 2025 at 11:38 AM
🧵 Thread on new research on gender gaps in “don’t know” responses
Some of you will know that my stellar coauthors @hannahbunting.bsky.social @cerifowler.bsky.social @jess-smith.bsky.social @annasanders.bsky.social & I have been working on a large-scale project on “don’t know” responses in surveys.
Some of you will know that my stellar coauthors @hannahbunting.bsky.social @cerifowler.bsky.social @jess-smith.bsky.social @annasanders.bsky.social & I have been working on a large-scale project on “don’t know” responses in surveys.
Reposted by James David Griffiths
For those interested, raw data download is here along with some basic cross tabs: github.com/jaclarner/Ca...
December 17, 2025 at 9:24 AM
For those interested, raw data download is here along with some basic cross tabs: github.com/jaclarner/Ca...
Reposted by James David Griffiths
Right let's breakdown this new poll for Wales because there is a lot going on below the headline figures.
[Thread]
[Thread]
December 17, 2025 at 8:29 AM
Right let's breakdown this new poll for Wales because there is a lot going on below the headline figures.
[Thread]
[Thread]
In England, the Lib Dems and Greens are absolutely benefiting from the same trend.
The Lib Dems don't really have a big presence in Wales, but the Greens are also growing in Wales (to a lesser extent that Plaid, but more so among the fewer left/British people I think)
The Lib Dems don't really have a big presence in Wales, but the Greens are also growing in Wales (to a lesser extent that Plaid, but more so among the fewer left/British people I think)
December 17, 2025 at 10:02 AM
In England, the Lib Dems and Greens are absolutely benefiting from the same trend.
The Lib Dems don't really have a big presence in Wales, but the Greens are also growing in Wales (to a lesser extent that Plaid, but more so among the fewer left/British people I think)
The Lib Dems don't really have a big presence in Wales, but the Greens are also growing in Wales (to a lesser extent that Plaid, but more so among the fewer left/British people I think)
Reposted by James David Griffiths
👇👇Upcoming Senedd elections look set to break the mould of Welsh party politics and rock UK Labour. To understand the ‘made in Wales’ and UK influences on this ‘within bloc’ realignment read @jaclarner.bsky.social & @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social 👇👇
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
Consolidation, Not Conversion: Understanding Wales’s Ongoing Realignment
Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk
December 17, 2025 at 7:35 AM
👇👇Upcoming Senedd elections look set to break the mould of Welsh party politics and rock UK Labour. To understand the ‘made in Wales’ and UK influences on this ‘within bloc’ realignment read @jaclarner.bsky.social & @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social 👇👇
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
In short, Labour is on track for a historic loss, but this is happening because of movement *within* Wales's electoral blocs, not *between* them.
Labour's biggest losses are to Plaid Cymru, not Reform (who are growing from Tory losses).
Long way to go, but Labour are in a really tough place in 🏴
Labour's biggest losses are to Plaid Cymru, not Reform (who are growing from Tory losses).
Long way to go, but Labour are in a really tough place in 🏴
December 17, 2025 at 9:10 AM
In short, Labour is on track for a historic loss, but this is happening because of movement *within* Wales's electoral blocs, not *between* them.
Labour's biggest losses are to Plaid Cymru, not Reform (who are growing from Tory losses).
Long way to go, but Labour are in a really tough place in 🏴
Labour's biggest losses are to Plaid Cymru, not Reform (who are growing from Tory losses).
Long way to go, but Labour are in a really tough place in 🏴
The most common reasons that Lab > Plaid switchers give for their switch concern the ability to stand up for Wales and beating Reform.
Labour’s strategy has alienated its core voters, and unlike at UK level it can’t rely on “stop Reform” messaging: many now see Plaid as the better option for that.
Labour’s strategy has alienated its core voters, and unlike at UK level it can’t rely on “stop Reform” messaging: many now see Plaid as the better option for that.
December 17, 2025 at 9:10 AM
The most common reasons that Lab > Plaid switchers give for their switch concern the ability to stand up for Wales and beating Reform.
Labour’s strategy has alienated its core voters, and unlike at UK level it can’t rely on “stop Reform” messaging: many now see Plaid as the better option for that.
Labour’s strategy has alienated its core voters, and unlike at UK level it can’t rely on “stop Reform” messaging: many now see Plaid as the better option for that.
Similarly, Reform UK has consolidated the British/right vote
Reform's rise is at the expense of the Conservatives, not Labour!
These trends are similar to the rest of GB, as Labour are mostly losing voters on their left flank - what's specific to Wales is that Plaid is now seen as the best option
Reform's rise is at the expense of the Conservatives, not Labour!
These trends are similar to the rest of GB, as Labour are mostly losing voters on their left flank - what's specific to Wales is that Plaid is now seen as the best option
December 17, 2025 at 9:10 AM
Similarly, Reform UK has consolidated the British/right vote
Reform's rise is at the expense of the Conservatives, not Labour!
These trends are similar to the rest of GB, as Labour are mostly losing voters on their left flank - what's specific to Wales is that Plaid is now seen as the best option
Reform's rise is at the expense of the Conservatives, not Labour!
These trends are similar to the rest of GB, as Labour are mostly losing voters on their left flank - what's specific to Wales is that Plaid is now seen as the best option
Welsh elections have long been structured into a Welsh/left bloc and a British/right bloc.
Despite the huge changes in 2021, most switching is within (not between) blocs
Labour previously got the most support from the Welsh/left, but since 2025 they've lost lots of these voters to Plaid Cymru.
Despite the huge changes in 2021, most switching is within (not between) blocs
Labour previously got the most support from the Welsh/left, but since 2025 they've lost lots of these voters to Plaid Cymru.
December 17, 2025 at 9:10 AM
Welsh elections have long been structured into a Welsh/left bloc and a British/right bloc.
Despite the huge changes in 2021, most switching is within (not between) blocs
Labour previously got the most support from the Welsh/left, but since 2025 they've lost lots of these voters to Plaid Cymru.
Despite the huge changes in 2021, most switching is within (not between) blocs
Labour previously got the most support from the Welsh/left, but since 2025 they've lost lots of these voters to Plaid Cymru.
🚨 NEW BLOG
Labour have won every election in Wales for 100 years, but they are on track to (badly) lose the 2026 Senedd election - why?
@jaclarner.bsky.social and I have looked at new data, which shows how support is shifting within (not between) Wales's blocs!
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
Labour have won every election in Wales for 100 years, but they are on track to (badly) lose the 2026 Senedd election - why?
@jaclarner.bsky.social and I have looked at new data, which shows how support is shifting within (not between) Wales's blocs!
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
Consolidation, Not Conversion: Understanding Wales’s Ongoing Realignment
Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk
December 17, 2025 at 9:10 AM
🚨 NEW BLOG
Labour have won every election in Wales for 100 years, but they are on track to (badly) lose the 2026 Senedd election - why?
@jaclarner.bsky.social and I have looked at new data, which shows how support is shifting within (not between) Wales's blocs!
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
Labour have won every election in Wales for 100 years, but they are on track to (badly) lose the 2026 Senedd election - why?
@jaclarner.bsky.social and I have looked at new data, which shows how support is shifting within (not between) Wales's blocs!
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
Reposted by James David Griffiths
Are Reform at their ceiling?
@martamiori.bsky.social and I explored @britishelectionstudy.com data and found a high % of May 2025 Con voters could switch.
We think it depends on intensity of preference and right-bloc party viability.
Link here:
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/cons...
@martamiori.bsky.social and I explored @britishelectionstudy.com data and found a high % of May 2025 Con voters could switch.
We think it depends on intensity of preference and right-bloc party viability.
Link here:
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/cons...
Considering Reform’s Potential ‘Ceiling’ - Nuffield Politics Research Centre
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk
December 12, 2025 at 10:38 AM
Are Reform at their ceiling?
@martamiori.bsky.social and I explored @britishelectionstudy.com data and found a high % of May 2025 Con voters could switch.
We think it depends on intensity of preference and right-bloc party viability.
Link here:
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/cons...
@martamiori.bsky.social and I explored @britishelectionstudy.com data and found a high % of May 2025 Con voters could switch.
We think it depends on intensity of preference and right-bloc party viability.
Link here:
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/cons...
Reposted by James David Griffiths
In this short piece (also in PSA Insights this issue), @martamiori.bsky.social and I explain the bloc structure in what’s happening in GB electoral politics and why this matters. Nice and simple summary here:
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/brit...
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/brit...
Britain’s Quiet Electoral Earthquake - Nuffield Politics Research Centre
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk
December 10, 2025 at 2:52 PM
In this short piece (also in PSA Insights this issue), @martamiori.bsky.social and I explain the bloc structure in what’s happening in GB electoral politics and why this matters. Nice and simple summary here:
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/brit...
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/brit...
I reckon you'll qualify out of that group. So envious of you being able to sit back and plan your trip, rather than having to wait until March for a slight hope...
December 5, 2025 at 8:19 PM
I reckon you'll qualify out of that group. So envious of you being able to sit back and plan your trip, rather than having to wait until March for a slight hope...
Reposted by James David Griffiths
🚨New article🚨 What do people want from political leaders in times of crisis, and are those preferences gendered?
Interested? Then check out our new Electoral Studies paper @jess-smith.bsky.social @viktorv.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social @hannahbunting.bsky.social @carolineleicht.bsky.social
Interested? Then check out our new Electoral Studies paper @jess-smith.bsky.social @viktorv.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social @hannahbunting.bsky.social @carolineleicht.bsky.social
Bluesky
e.bsky.social
December 1, 2025 at 11:00 AM
🚨New article🚨 What do people want from political leaders in times of crisis, and are those preferences gendered?
Interested? Then check out our new Electoral Studies paper @jess-smith.bsky.social @viktorv.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social @hannahbunting.bsky.social @carolineleicht.bsky.social
Interested? Then check out our new Electoral Studies paper @jess-smith.bsky.social @viktorv.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social @hannahbunting.bsky.social @carolineleicht.bsky.social
Llongyfarchiadau / congratulations!!
November 30, 2025 at 5:37 PM
Llongyfarchiadau / congratulations!!
Llongyfarchiadau / congratulations!!
November 30, 2025 at 5:36 PM
Llongyfarchiadau / congratulations!!
Reposted by James David Griffiths
UK politics followers, these graphs are in a paper by @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social and co (inc. me).
There's so much useful info in them.
The long-term context for the politics of our time, how the 'Brexit elections' differed, though note the Y axes may need to be bigger for the next election!!
There's so much useful info in them.
The long-term context for the politics of our time, how the 'Brexit elections' differed, though note the Y axes may need to be bigger for the next election!!
November 28, 2025 at 9:29 AM
UK politics followers, these graphs are in a paper by @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social and co (inc. me).
There's so much useful info in them.
The long-term context for the politics of our time, how the 'Brexit elections' differed, though note the Y axes may need to be bigger for the next election!!
There's so much useful info in them.
The long-term context for the politics of our time, how the 'Brexit elections' differed, though note the Y axes may need to be bigger for the next election!!
Reposted by James David Griffiths
NEW! How should Labour respond to the two key issues to voters of the economy and immigration and what are the electoral stakes this week of the budget?
Read on for our answer...
@nprcoxford.bsky.social @jrf-uk.bsky.social
Read on for our answer...
@nprcoxford.bsky.social @jrf-uk.bsky.social
November 24, 2025 at 11:02 AM
NEW! How should Labour respond to the two key issues to voters of the economy and immigration and what are the electoral stakes this week of the budget?
Read on for our answer...
@nprcoxford.bsky.social @jrf-uk.bsky.social
Read on for our answer...
@nprcoxford.bsky.social @jrf-uk.bsky.social
Reposted by James David Griffiths
🚨 NEW in @bjpols.bsky.social : When Partygate hit Westminster, trust in Scottish politicians increased. Our experiments reveal a "contrast effect" - scandals at one level can make the other look better by comparison. Who lost most trust in Westminster? Scottish unionists. Read now #OpenAccess 👇
November 11, 2025 at 9:00 AM
🚨 NEW in @bjpols.bsky.social : When Partygate hit Westminster, trust in Scottish politicians increased. Our experiments reveal a "contrast effect" - scandals at one level can make the other look better by comparison. Who lost most trust in Westminster? Scottish unionists. Read now #OpenAccess 👇
Excellent blog, and equally excellent metaphor, on Caerphilly.
Welsh Labour really do have a mountain to climb ahead of May, and ignoring it won't make it easier.
Welsh Labour really do have a mountain to climb ahead of May, and ignoring it won't make it easier.
New blog
Cracks in the Stonehenge of Welsh Politics: Caerphilly and Labour’s Future
Read @nyedavies.bsky.social on why the result in Caerphilly should act as a wake-up call to Welsh Labour, despite many in the party having warned against reading too much into the defeat
Read more: edin.ac/4949g0m
Cracks in the Stonehenge of Welsh Politics: Caerphilly and Labour’s Future
Read @nyedavies.bsky.social on why the result in Caerphilly should act as a wake-up call to Welsh Labour, despite many in the party having warned against reading too much into the defeat
Read more: edin.ac/4949g0m
November 5, 2025 at 5:16 PM
Excellent blog, and equally excellent metaphor, on Caerphilly.
Welsh Labour really do have a mountain to climb ahead of May, and ignoring it won't make it easier.
Welsh Labour really do have a mountain to climb ahead of May, and ignoring it won't make it easier.