Daniel Devine
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danjdevine.bsky.social
Daniel Devine
@danjdevine.bsky.social
public opinion, behaviour, attitudes, &c.

Associate Prof, @sotonpolitics.bsky.social; Assoc. Editor, @poqjournal.bsky.social & @jeppjournal.bsky.social

ColU, Pompey, music, books, & pubs

https://djdevine.org
Rookie numbers. I hit this at a mid season nothing game away at Crewe.
The mean stress level of fans of the football club Arminia Bielefeld (@arminia.de) was 41% higher on the day of the German Football Association’s 2025 Cup final compared to non-match days, according to a study in Scientific Reports: spklr.io/63320DOZ2n

#DFBPokal
Measuring football fever through wearable technology - Scientific Reports
Football is the world’s most popular sport, evoking strong physiological and emotional responses among its fans. Yet, the specific reactions to fan involvement have received little attention in the literature. In this paper, we quantify the resulting physiological responses through a unique case study from professional football: the 2025 cup final of the German Football Association (DFB) between first-division club VfB Stuttgart and third-division club Arminia Bielefeld. We collected high-resolution smartwatch data, including heart rate and stress level, from 229 Arminia Bielefeld fans over approximately 12 weeks, complemented by survey responses on identification with the club, match attendance, and personal characteristics from a subset of 37 participants. By combining physiological data with survey information, we analyse variations in emotional arousal across individuals and contexts, measured by physiological reactions to the cup final. This approach provides rare, data-driven insights into the football fever that captivates fans during high-stakes competitions. Furthermore, we compare the vital parameters recorded on the day of the match with baseline levels on non-matchdays throughout the entire observation period. Our findings reveal pronounced physiological responses among fans, beginning hours before the match and peaking at kick-off.
spklr.io
February 5, 2026 at 9:00 PM
Reposted by Daniel Devine
I was on BBCR4’s Rethink today talking with @benansell.bsky.social about

political authenticity

Research links to follow. With co-authors @viktorv.bsky.social, @drjennings.bsky.social, @jmoss88.bsky.social, @danjdevine.bsky.social, @lawrencemckay.bsky.social

www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m...
BBC Sounds - Rethink, Rethink... authenticity
Is authenticity in the modern age in the eye of the beholder?
www.bbc.co.uk
February 5, 2026 at 4:51 PM
[After spending all day reading about a global paedophile ring and marking and sitting down to watch Hitler's Circle of Evil on Netflix]

But _why_ am I so sad?
February 4, 2026 at 7:14 PM
Reposted by Daniel Devine
Got a great paper on how AI is reshaping public opinion research? Submit it to POQ's special issue on Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Survey Research!

Papers are being reviewed and accepted on a rolling basis starting now – full details here: s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/clarivate-sc...
February 4, 2026 at 4:49 PM
👏🔥
January 29, 2026 at 5:29 PM
Reposted by Daniel Devine
Qualtrics conjoint folks (using Leeper code): do you have any tips/tricks for how to make it look good on mobile (or at least not look awful)? Looks fine on desktop, but mobile is a mess (and study population prob mostly mobile). Keen to not reinvent the wheel if this is already solved.
January 28, 2026 at 2:15 PM
So every year I do a short survey with my first year British Politics students.

Anyway, Labour have gone from 44% to 15%.

The 'other' category - mea culpa for not adding the Greens - has gone from 18% to 41%.
January 27, 2026 at 3:43 PM
I got the train from London to Florence and the first delay I had was from London to Southampton on the way home
January 22, 2026 at 9:32 PM
Reposted by Daniel Devine
What happens when #Trust becomes volatile? 💥

@cvalebeek.bsky.social @tomwgvdmeer.bsky.social & @hakhverdian.bsky.social use survey data from the Netherlands 🇳🇱 to analyse how #VotingBehaviour is impacted by three key components of #PoliticalTrust.

Find out what they are 👉 📖

buff.ly/gT7AWxe
Stable or variable distrust? Disentangling the relationship between political trust and electoral behavior | European Political Science Review | Cambridge Core
Stable or variable distrust? Disentangling the relationship between political trust and electoral behavior
buff.ly
January 20, 2026 at 12:58 PM
Reposted by Daniel Devine
Out now:
*A Research Agenda for Political Trust*

This excellent collection of papers points out future directions for political trust research: the unanswered questions, problems, promising theoretical pathways, and methodological innovations.
www.e-elgar.com/shop/gbp/a-r...

And: it's open access!
A Research Agenda for Political Trust
‘Low trust in government provides the fuel for democratic backsliding. There is no more important topic for scholars to confront. This volume is invaluable because it provides important insights on tr...
www.e-elgar.com
January 9, 2026 at 4:55 PM
Some weekend reading for you
📰 Issue 33:2 out! 👉 Special Issue: European Democracy in Action? The 2024 European Parliament Elections, guest edited by @sarahobolt.bsky.social, Sebastian-Adrian Popa, and Wouter van der Brug

Read the whole issue: www.tandfonline.com/toc/rjpp20/3...

📸 © European Union 2024 - Source : EP
January 16, 2026 at 6:11 PM
Reposted by Daniel Devine
📢 New book chapter
👥 Staffan Kumlin @staffankumlin.bsky.social (ISV) & Jonas Linde @jonaslinde.bsky.social
🔎 Political Trust in Norway; A Large But Lopsided Research Field
📖 Published in Oxford Handbook of Norwegian Politics
🔗 doi.org/10.1093/oxfo...
January 16, 2026 at 11:44 AM
Reposted by Daniel Devine
Please help spread the word on this, especially to those who may be feeling cold winds towards their research.

We’ve opened the call for our International Fellowships, enabling early career researchers to work for two years at a UK research institution
www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/funding/sche...
January 15, 2026 at 8:00 PM
Given that only a third of the hypotheses were supported, one takeaway is that our theories are crap.
This is a belated post about our paper in @poqjournal.bsky.social.

We analyzed 100 survey experiments fielded by TESS (tessexperiments.org), using only information from the proposals to identify intended hypotheses.

Here are some of the things we learned:
An Audit of Social Science Survey Experiments
Abstract. Survey experiments have become a popular methodology for causal inference across the social sciences. We study the efficacy of survey experiment
doi.org
January 15, 2026 at 9:33 AM
Watching a BBC documentary about the Titanic.

Of all 6 commentators, 4 went to Oxford. The other two were in the army. And none of them seem to have done anything remotely connected to the Titanic (but one was a sailor!).
January 14, 2026 at 8:26 PM
Reposted by Daniel Devine
A postdoc is available at @sotonpolitics.bsky.social in a Horizon project on 'the emotional expressions of grievance politics and implications for democratic governance':

www.jobs.ac.uk/job/DQD118/r...
Research Fellow in Emotions and Grievance Politics at University of Southampton
Looking for a new job opportunity in academia? Check out this job opening for a Research Fellow in Emotions and Grievance Politics on jobs.ac.uk!
www.jobs.ac.uk
January 14, 2026 at 12:59 PM
Reposted by Daniel Devine
From November 2025 -

The Politics of Imperial Nostalgia - https://cup.org/4p1QbRA

"right-wing opposition to criticism of the imperial past is stronger than left-wing support"

- Christopher Claassen & @danjdevine.bsky.social

#OpenAccess
January 14, 2026 at 7:10 AM
Reposted by Daniel Devine
We are happy to release the Paths to Power Dashboard. It is the perfect tool for politics nerds!

You can find it here: ptp.isv.sv.uio.no/ptp/

It allows you to explore governments from 1966-2021 using the PtP and WhoGov datasets. See examples below.

The app has been programmed by Stuart Bramwell.
January 14, 2026 at 11:44 AM
A postdoc is available at @sotonpolitics.bsky.social in a Horizon project on 'the emotional expressions of grievance politics and implications for democratic governance':

www.jobs.ac.uk/job/DQD118/r...
Research Fellow in Emotions and Grievance Politics at University of Southampton
Looking for a new job opportunity in academia? Check out this job opening for a Research Fellow in Emotions and Grievance Politics on jobs.ac.uk!
www.jobs.ac.uk
January 14, 2026 at 12:59 PM
Reposted by Daniel Devine
What do people in England think about their local area? In this short report I take a look at surveys we conducted with @yougov.co.uk in 2022, 2024 and 2025 to gain some insights...

Some key findings...
Perspectives on Place: what the English think about their local area
www.southampton.ac.uk
January 13, 2026 at 9:21 AM
Reposted by Daniel Devine
If you work on any aspect of trust and politics, you'll definitely want to check out this agenda-setting collection co-edited by our brilliant colleague @danjdevine.bsky.social. Plus, it's open access and free for all! #polisky #commsky #socsky #econsky
A positive end to the first week back is that the book is now fully available. It's not on their website yet, but it is on mine.

I'm really happy with how it turned out and grateful to all the authors.

Hope it's useful.

🙌 djdevineorg.wordpress.com/wp-content/u...
January 12, 2026 at 8:40 AM
Reposted by Daniel Devine
Important agenda setter on public trust, including the who's who in that area.
A positive end to the first week back is that the book is now fully available. It's not on their website yet, but it is on mine.

I'm really happy with how it turned out and grateful to all the authors.

Hope it's useful.

🙌 djdevineorg.wordpress.com/wp-content/u...
January 12, 2026 at 5:24 AM
Reposted by Daniel Devine
A positive end to the first week back is that the book is now fully available. It's not on their website yet, but it is on mine.

I'm really happy with how it turned out and grateful to all the authors.

Hope it's useful.

🙌 djdevineorg.wordpress.com/wp-content/u...
January 9, 2026 at 5:02 PM
Record attendance for the south coast derby in the women's second division ⚽🔵
January 10, 2026 at 7:34 PM
A positive end to the first week back is that the book is now fully available. It's not on their website yet, but it is on mine.

I'm really happy with how it turned out and grateful to all the authors.

Hope it's useful.

🙌 djdevineorg.wordpress.com/wp-content/u...
January 9, 2026 at 5:02 PM