Tamkinat Rauf
@tsrauf.bsky.social
Asst. professor of Sociology
Interests: happiness, depression, inequality, social psych, genomics, quant methods, open science
www.tamkinatrauf.com
Interests: happiness, depression, inequality, social psych, genomics, quant methods, open science
www.tamkinatrauf.com
Pinned
An Audit of Social Science Survey Experiments
Abstract. Survey experiments have become a popular methodology for causal inference across the social sciences. We study the efficacy of survey experiment
doi.org
This is a belated post about our paper in @poqjournal.bsky.social.
We analyzed 100 survey experiments fielded by TESS (tessexperiments.org), using only information from the proposals to identify intended hypotheses.
Here are some of the things we learned:
We analyzed 100 survey experiments fielded by TESS (tessexperiments.org), using only information from the proposals to identify intended hypotheses.
Here are some of the things we learned:
Reposted by Tamkinat Rauf
SPQ is excited to announce a Special Issue on Social Status! We are inviting scholars to submit their theoretical and empirical articles that examine status by December 15th, 2026.
Below is the information for the Call for Papers. #SPQ
Below is the information for the Call for Papers. #SPQ
February 3, 2026 at 8:28 PM
SPQ is excited to announce a Special Issue on Social Status! We are inviting scholars to submit their theoretical and empirical articles that examine status by December 15th, 2026.
Below is the information for the Call for Papers. #SPQ
Below is the information for the Call for Papers. #SPQ
Reposted by Tamkinat Rauf
A counterintuitive example where a strong prior pulls an estimate in the wrong direction–and how to see the problem
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/02/02/a...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/02/02/a...
A counterintuitive example where a strong prior pulls an estimate in the wrong direction–and how to see the problem | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
February 2, 2026 at 2:20 PM
A counterintuitive example where a strong prior pulls an estimate in the wrong direction–and how to see the problem
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/02/02/a...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/02/02/a...
Reposted by Tamkinat Rauf
Is academia a job, career, or calling? Yes, yes, and yes. The answer is not defined by the role, it is defined by the person in the role.
It is perfectly acceptable to decide it is any of these for one's interests and well-being, and to live and work accordingly.
It is perfectly acceptable to decide it is any of these for one's interests and well-being, and to live and work accordingly.
Is academia just a job?
We assigned this paper in our professional development seminar last week and it was quite popular.
My view: I grew up in a working class family and no one I knew considered their job "a calling". I also had a bunch of jobs that felt, well, like jobs.
We assigned this paper in our professional development seminar last week and it was quite popular.
My view: I grew up in a working class family and no one I knew considered their job "a calling". I also had a bunch of jobs that felt, well, like jobs.
January 28, 2026 at 4:46 PM
Is academia a job, career, or calling? Yes, yes, and yes. The answer is not defined by the role, it is defined by the person in the role.
It is perfectly acceptable to decide it is any of these for one's interests and well-being, and to live and work accordingly.
It is perfectly acceptable to decide it is any of these for one's interests and well-being, and to live and work accordingly.
Reposted by Tamkinat Rauf
After 5 years I can finally share a full WP of our project conducting cognitive interviews of life satisfaction reporting.
Main findings:
1. LS scales are psychometrically valid, but...
2. Standard statistical assumptions made when analysing LS data are not credible.
osf.io/gv5e3/files/...
Main findings:
1. LS scales are psychometrically valid, but...
2. Standard statistical assumptions made when analysing LS data are not credible.
osf.io/gv5e3/files/...
January 26, 2026 at 8:39 AM
After 5 years I can finally share a full WP of our project conducting cognitive interviews of life satisfaction reporting.
Main findings:
1. LS scales are psychometrically valid, but...
2. Standard statistical assumptions made when analysing LS data are not credible.
osf.io/gv5e3/files/...
Main findings:
1. LS scales are psychometrically valid, but...
2. Standard statistical assumptions made when analysing LS data are not credible.
osf.io/gv5e3/files/...
People who grew up in a high SES families have virtually no association b/w anxiety PGI & anxiety symptoms. But childhood SES did not moderate the association between depression PGI & depressive symptoms.
[US sample of older adults]
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
[US sample of older adults]
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
January 22, 2026 at 1:33 PM
People who grew up in a high SES families have virtually no association b/w anxiety PGI & anxiety symptoms. But childhood SES did not moderate the association between depression PGI & depressive symptoms.
[US sample of older adults]
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
[US sample of older adults]
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Reposted by Tamkinat Rauf
JOB! I'm hiring a postdoc for 2 years on my ERC MaMo project.
Looking for someone with strong quant methods, ongoing work close to the project's aims, and a desire to publish in sociology. Start flexible in the next 12 months.
Formal call out shortly, but contact me first.
Looking for someone with strong quant methods, ongoing work close to the project's aims, and a desire to publish in sociology. Start flexible in the next 12 months.
Formal call out shortly, but contact me first.
January 21, 2026 at 12:32 PM
JOB! I'm hiring a postdoc for 2 years on my ERC MaMo project.
Looking for someone with strong quant methods, ongoing work close to the project's aims, and a desire to publish in sociology. Start flexible in the next 12 months.
Formal call out shortly, but contact me first.
Looking for someone with strong quant methods, ongoing work close to the project's aims, and a desire to publish in sociology. Start flexible in the next 12 months.
Formal call out shortly, but contact me first.
Reposted by Tamkinat Rauf
Writing is thinking
Outsourcing the entire task of writing to LLMs will deprive us of the essential creative task of interpreting our findings and generating a deeper theoretical understanding of the world.
Outsourcing the entire task of writing to LLMs will deprive us of the essential creative task of interpreting our findings and generating a deeper theoretical understanding of the world.
January 18, 2026 at 6:15 PM
Writing is thinking
Outsourcing the entire task of writing to LLMs will deprive us of the essential creative task of interpreting our findings and generating a deeper theoretical understanding of the world.
Outsourcing the entire task of writing to LLMs will deprive us of the essential creative task of interpreting our findings and generating a deeper theoretical understanding of the world.
Within-twin differences in birthweight are assoc. w/ cognitive ability in midlife, but b/w family differences is in birthweight are not.
Authors think this is because nutritional differences (within twin) affect development differently than other prenatal exposures (e.g. maternal smoking).
Authors think this is because nutritional differences (within twin) affect development differently than other prenatal exposures (e.g. maternal smoking).
(1/4) Thrilled to share our new paper out now in @geronsociety.bsky.social Journals of Gerontology. The association between birthweight and cognitive ability declined exponentially across the lifespan. A longitudinal twin study helped us unpack why...
academic.oup.com/psychsocgero...
academic.oup.com/psychsocgero...
Nonlinear decline in the association between birth weight and cognitive ability from infancy to midlife in a community sample of twins
AbstractObjectives. Birth weight is a widely used indicator of prenatal experiences in models of the developmental origins of cognitive ability across the
academic.oup.com
January 20, 2026 at 1:39 PM
Within-twin differences in birthweight are assoc. w/ cognitive ability in midlife, but b/w family differences is in birthweight are not.
Authors think this is because nutritional differences (within twin) affect development differently than other prenatal exposures (e.g. maternal smoking).
Authors think this is because nutritional differences (within twin) affect development differently than other prenatal exposures (e.g. maternal smoking).
Reposted by Tamkinat Rauf
The young report lower job quality than other workers in the USA potentially contributing to their declining mental health. But other factors (employment selection and changing work orientations) may be at play www.nber.org/papers/w34696 @sriucl.bsky.social @dannyblanchy.bsky.social
Why is the Mental Health of the Youngest American Workers in Decline?
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
www.nber.org
January 19, 2026 at 10:38 AM
The young report lower job quality than other workers in the USA potentially contributing to their declining mental health. But other factors (employment selection and changing work orientations) may be at play www.nber.org/papers/w34696 @sriucl.bsky.social @dannyblanchy.bsky.social
Reposted by Tamkinat Rauf
Who is the Big Tobacco of today?
In new work, we find 50% of high profile social media papers are connected to big tech through funding, collaboration and employment. Most connections aren't disclosed. @jbakcoleman.bsky.social @jevinwest.bsky.social @carlbergstrom.com 1
arxiv.org/abs/2601.11507
In new work, we find 50% of high profile social media papers are connected to big tech through funding, collaboration and employment. Most connections aren't disclosed. @jbakcoleman.bsky.social @jevinwest.bsky.social @carlbergstrom.com 1
arxiv.org/abs/2601.11507
Industry Influence in High-Profile Social Media Research
To what extent is social media research independent from industry influence? Leveraging openly available data, we show that half of the research published in top journals has disclosable ties to indus...
arxiv.org
January 19, 2026 at 6:51 PM
Who is the Big Tobacco of today?
In new work, we find 50% of high profile social media papers are connected to big tech through funding, collaboration and employment. Most connections aren't disclosed. @jbakcoleman.bsky.social @jevinwest.bsky.social @carlbergstrom.com 1
arxiv.org/abs/2601.11507
In new work, we find 50% of high profile social media papers are connected to big tech through funding, collaboration and employment. Most connections aren't disclosed. @jbakcoleman.bsky.social @jevinwest.bsky.social @carlbergstrom.com 1
arxiv.org/abs/2601.11507
Reposted by Tamkinat Rauf
1/ Does growing up poor always lead to political apathy?
Very happy to share my first paper published (open access) in @electoralstudies.bsky.social, where I show that parents' influence mitigates the poverty gap in participation, while economic mobility does not.
🔗 shorturl.at/p5Bac
Very happy to share my first paper published (open access) in @electoralstudies.bsky.social, where I show that parents' influence mitigates the poverty gap in participation, while economic mobility does not.
🔗 shorturl.at/p5Bac
December 4, 2025 at 10:54 AM
1/ Does growing up poor always lead to political apathy?
Very happy to share my first paper published (open access) in @electoralstudies.bsky.social, where I show that parents' influence mitigates the poverty gap in participation, while economic mobility does not.
🔗 shorturl.at/p5Bac
Very happy to share my first paper published (open access) in @electoralstudies.bsky.social, where I show that parents' influence mitigates the poverty gap in participation, while economic mobility does not.
🔗 shorturl.at/p5Bac
Reposted by Tamkinat Rauf
"For first-generation, low-income students, ... better well-being is uniquely and consistently linked to similarity and academic support in their friend networks."
Paywall: doi.org/10.1177/0146...
Paywall: doi.org/10.1177/0146...
January 17, 2026 at 8:36 AM
"For first-generation, low-income students, ... better well-being is uniquely and consistently linked to similarity and academic support in their friend networks."
Paywall: doi.org/10.1177/0146...
Paywall: doi.org/10.1177/0146...
Reposted by Tamkinat Rauf
This paper looks extremely interesting. Nice work!
This is a belated post about our paper in @poqjournal.bsky.social.
We analyzed 100 survey experiments fielded by TESS (tessexperiments.org), using only information from the proposals to identify intended hypotheses.
Here are some of the things we learned:
We analyzed 100 survey experiments fielded by TESS (tessexperiments.org), using only information from the proposals to identify intended hypotheses.
Here are some of the things we learned:
An Audit of Social Science Survey Experiments
Abstract. Survey experiments have become a popular methodology for causal inference across the social sciences. We study the efficacy of survey experiment
doi.org
January 14, 2026 at 9:42 PM
This paper looks extremely interesting. Nice work!
This is a belated post about our paper in @poqjournal.bsky.social.
We analyzed 100 survey experiments fielded by TESS (tessexperiments.org), using only information from the proposals to identify intended hypotheses.
Here are some of the things we learned:
We analyzed 100 survey experiments fielded by TESS (tessexperiments.org), using only information from the proposals to identify intended hypotheses.
Here are some of the things we learned:
An Audit of Social Science Survey Experiments
Abstract. Survey experiments have become a popular methodology for causal inference across the social sciences. We study the efficacy of survey experiment
doi.org
January 14, 2026 at 7:17 PM
This is a belated post about our paper in @poqjournal.bsky.social.
We analyzed 100 survey experiments fielded by TESS (tessexperiments.org), using only information from the proposals to identify intended hypotheses.
Here are some of the things we learned:
We analyzed 100 survey experiments fielded by TESS (tessexperiments.org), using only information from the proposals to identify intended hypotheses.
Here are some of the things we learned:
Cool twin study design!
New @jmfncfr.bsky.social paper w/ @arnovanhootegem.bsky.social & @torkildl.bsky.social!
Triangulating adoption- and CoT-designs, we find that parental 💔 has minimal impact on children's partnership formation but increases their risk of partnership dissolution.
doi.org/10.1111/jomf...
Triangulating adoption- and CoT-designs, we find that parental 💔 has minimal impact on children's partnership formation but increases their risk of partnership dissolution.
doi.org/10.1111/jomf...
<em>Journal of Marriage and Family</em> | NCFR Family Science Journal | Wiley Online Library
Objective This study investigates the consequences of parental divorce on offspring's likelihood of entering and dissolving marital or cohabiting partnerships, assessing whether intergenerational as...
doi.org
January 9, 2026 at 8:43 PM
Cool twin study design!
This is an amazing use of AI!
AI Is Being Used to Find Valuable Commodities in Our Trash
The White House’s push to boost domestic production of raw materials has turned attention to America’s waste stream.
www.wsj.com
January 8, 2026 at 1:05 PM
This is an amazing use of AI!
Reposted by Tamkinat Rauf
After 5 years of data collection, our WARN-D machine learning competition to forecast depression onset is now LIVE! We hope many of you will participate—we have incredibly rich data.
If you share a single thing of my lab this year, please make it this competition.
eiko-fried.com/warn-d-machi...
If you share a single thing of my lab this year, please make it this competition.
eiko-fried.com/warn-d-machi...
WARN-D machine learning competition is live » Eiko Fried
If you share one single thing of our team in 2026—on social media or per email with your colleagues—please let it be this machine learning competition. It was half a decade of work to get here, especi...
eiko-fried.com
January 7, 2026 at 7:39 PM
After 5 years of data collection, our WARN-D machine learning competition to forecast depression onset is now LIVE! We hope many of you will participate—we have incredibly rich data.
If you share a single thing of my lab this year, please make it this competition.
eiko-fried.com/warn-d-machi...
If you share a single thing of my lab this year, please make it this competition.
eiko-fried.com/warn-d-machi...
Reposted by Tamkinat Rauf
In 2026, I am launching a vlog, For the Love of Science, about working aspects of being a scientist - the joys and challenges, the practical aspects and mental and emotional qualities it involves. It's on YouTube (at @NAChristakis) and Instagram (at @OnTheLoveofScience)
www.youtube.com/@NAChristakis
www.youtube.com/@NAChristakis
For the Love of Science
Weekly videos about the craft of science. A Human Nature Lab science outreach effort.
www.youtube.com
January 3, 2026 at 2:09 PM
In 2026, I am launching a vlog, For the Love of Science, about working aspects of being a scientist - the joys and challenges, the practical aspects and mental and emotional qualities it involves. It's on YouTube (at @NAChristakis) and Instagram (at @OnTheLoveofScience)
www.youtube.com/@NAChristakis
www.youtube.com/@NAChristakis
Interesting discussion about whether it’s fair game to feed public domain works into an LLM without authors’ consent.
somebody at UChicago is feeding preprints to LLMs without authors' consent, in a research study
they have the gall to suggest to authors they've opted-in that they volunteer to evaluate the LLMs' suggestions regarding their own work.
lol, lmao even. here is the invite and my reply
they have the gall to suggest to authors they've opted-in that they volunteer to evaluate the LLMs' suggestions regarding their own work.
lol, lmao even. here is the invite and my reply
January 6, 2026 at 3:47 AM
Interesting discussion about whether it’s fair game to feed public domain works into an LLM without authors’ consent.
Reposted by Tamkinat Rauf
Is one of your goals for 2026 to write more? One question I get all the time is, "How do you make time to write?" So, here is my unsolicited writing advice for the new year:
December 31, 2025 at 5:07 PM
Is one of your goals for 2026 to write more? One question I get all the time is, "How do you make time to write?" So, here is my unsolicited writing advice for the new year:
Reposted by Tamkinat Rauf
Effect sizes in social science survey experiments are typically small, requiring large samples and budgets for sufficient statistical power. It gets even trickier because increasing n/$ yields only diminishing returns to statistical power. This study points to an important barrier to credibility👇 1/
Survey experiments have become a popular methodology among social scientists. Has it been effective?
In POQ, Rauf et al. study the efficacy of 100 survey experiments. Their results show that a majority of hypotheses were not supported.
Read now: doi.org/10.1093/poq/...
In POQ, Rauf et al. study the efficacy of 100 survey experiments. Their results show that a majority of hypotheses were not supported.
Read now: doi.org/10.1093/poq/...
December 19, 2025 at 2:57 PM
Effect sizes in social science survey experiments are typically small, requiring large samples and budgets for sufficient statistical power. It gets even trickier because increasing n/$ yields only diminishing returns to statistical power. This study points to an important barrier to credibility👇 1/
Reposted by Tamkinat Rauf
Survey experiments have become a popular methodology among social scientists. Has it been effective?
In POQ, Rauf et al. study the efficacy of 100 survey experiments. Their results show that a majority of hypotheses were not supported.
Read now: doi.org/10.1093/poq/...
In POQ, Rauf et al. study the efficacy of 100 survey experiments. Their results show that a majority of hypotheses were not supported.
Read now: doi.org/10.1093/poq/...
December 18, 2025 at 10:32 PM
Survey experiments have become a popular methodology among social scientists. Has it been effective?
In POQ, Rauf et al. study the efficacy of 100 survey experiments. Their results show that a majority of hypotheses were not supported.
Read now: doi.org/10.1093/poq/...
In POQ, Rauf et al. study the efficacy of 100 survey experiments. Their results show that a majority of hypotheses were not supported.
Read now: doi.org/10.1093/poq/...
Reposted by Tamkinat Rauf
Computer scientists: "So with machine learning we can extract subtle patterns from massive datasets. What shall we do with it?"
Business school professors, every single time: "You know, I think phrenology got a raw deal in the late 1800s."
Business school professors, every single time: "You know, I think phrenology got a raw deal in the late 1800s."
Can Your Face Predict Your Salary? Using AI Personality Assessments in Hiring
A new study from Wharton faculty explores how AI can extract personality traits from facial images — and what that means for your career.
knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu
December 11, 2025 at 7:36 PM
Computer scientists: "So with machine learning we can extract subtle patterns from massive datasets. What shall we do with it?"
Business school professors, every single time: "You know, I think phrenology got a raw deal in the late 1800s."
Business school professors, every single time: "You know, I think phrenology got a raw deal in the late 1800s."
Reposted by Tamkinat Rauf
Very much agree. If science behaves anyway close to what Kuhn understood it to be (paradigms, normal science, etc), then LLMs would be particularly bad at discerning the quality of contributions that don’t fit standards of practice, both very good and very bad.
Should LLMs be used to review papers? AAAI is piloting LLM-generated reviews this year. I wrote a blog post arguing that using LLMs as reviewers can have bad downstream consequences for science by centralizing judgments about what constitutes good research.
bryanwilder.github.io/files/llmrev...
bryanwilder.github.io/files/llmrev...
Equilibrium effects of LLM reviewing
Equilibrium effects of LLM reviewing
bryanwilder.github.io
December 5, 2025 at 3:28 PM
Very much agree. If science behaves anyway close to what Kuhn understood it to be (paradigms, normal science, etc), then LLMs would be particularly bad at discerning the quality of contributions that don’t fit standards of practice, both very good and very bad.
Reposted by Tamkinat Rauf
My new book, The Division of Rationalized Labor, is now shipping! A brief summary of the argument to follow…
November 26, 2025 at 5:45 PM
My new book, The Division of Rationalized Labor, is now shipping! A brief summary of the argument to follow…