Cory McCartan
@corymccartan.com
Asst. Prof. of Statistics & Political Science at Penn State. I study stats methods, gerrymandering, & elections. Bayesian. Founder of UGSDW and proud alum of HGSU-UAW L. 5118.
corymccartan.com
corymccartan.com
At what point should universities that practice this kind of censorship lose their accreditation?
@grundrza.bsky.social is also great on the chilling effect this censorship in Florida is having on classes. The haphazard and random nature of who gets targeted is designed to make everyone terrified.
February 7, 2026 at 8:05 PM
At what point should universities that practice this kind of censorship lose their accreditation?
2nd chart is interesting - swing was not correlated with turnout. Consistent with a mostly persuasion effect
Blue wave watch: Democrat flips Trump +17 Texas Senate seat in 32-point swing
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/blue-wave-...
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/blue-wave-...
February 1, 2026 at 7:28 AM
2nd chart is interesting - swing was not correlated with turnout. Consistent with a mostly persuasion effect
Reposted by Cory McCartan
One thing I hope people take the time to acknowledge: The sea change in public opinion has been achieved because violence, though encourage by a lot of people here online, was never once employed by the movement. Violence was solely the purview of the state and that is why the state is losing.
January 26, 2026 at 7:48 PM
One thing I hope people take the time to acknowledge: The sea change in public opinion has been achieved because violence, though encourage by a lot of people here online, was never once employed by the movement. Violence was solely the purview of the state and that is why the state is losing.
Reposted by Cory McCartan
The administration is boxed into a corner right now and its entirely the result of the incredible discipline of the people in the streets. The Insurrection Act angle was always predicated on ICE brawling with the black bloc in street. Without that, it's worthless.
Curious if anyone has a plausible theory of victory for the administration if it were to invoke the Insurrection Act.
How does the administration "win" in such a scenario?
Best I can tell, it is magical thinking by a certain somebody at the White House, but maybe I'm missing something.
How does the administration "win" in such a scenario?
Best I can tell, it is magical thinking by a certain somebody at the White House, but maybe I'm missing something.
January 25, 2026 at 10:00 PM
The administration is boxed into a corner right now and its entirely the result of the incredible discipline of the people in the streets. The Insurrection Act angle was always predicated on ICE brawling with the black bloc in street. Without that, it's worthless.
Reposted by Cory McCartan
The most succinct description of the murder I've seen.
January 24, 2026 at 10:58 PM
The most succinct description of the murder I've seen.
Reposted by Cory McCartan
This is when the Linz stuff comes to a head. Two competing branches of government with competing claims of legitimacy in open conflict.
people worry too much about "rigging the midterms" (a phenomenon that would require force they do not have) with "civil crisis over Congress post-victory"
January 24, 2026 at 7:34 PM
This is when the Linz stuff comes to a head. Two competing branches of government with competing claims of legitimacy in open conflict.
Reposted by Cory McCartan
“Everyone should be allowed to carry a gun for their safety but the government can murder you in the street if you have a gun” is an incredible endpoint for the conservative moment
January 24, 2026 at 5:48 PM
“Everyone should be allowed to carry a gun for their safety but the government can murder you in the street if you have a gun” is an incredible endpoint for the conservative moment
Reposted by Cory McCartan
There is always _a_ reason. Even in the most repressive state. It is usually "they didn't go when we told them to go"
January 24, 2026 at 5:55 PM
There is always _a_ reason. Even in the most repressive state. It is usually "they didn't go when we told them to go"
Reposted by Cory McCartan
I am trying not to post on these events in this state of mind but: I hope people understand what the observers are doing is brave and dangerous.
January 24, 2026 at 4:51 PM
I am trying not to post on these events in this state of mind but: I hope people understand what the observers are doing is brave and dangerous.
Reposted by Cory McCartan
It’s currently operating totally outside of our constitutional rules. Habeas corpus , due process of law, equal protection, freedom of speech, 4th amendment protections against search and seizure, are all not being enforced in any common sense or meaningful way.
January 22, 2026 at 2:17 PM
It’s currently operating totally outside of our constitutional rules. Habeas corpus , due process of law, equal protection, freedom of speech, 4th amendment protections against search and seizure, are all not being enforced in any common sense or meaningful way.
Good to see another aggregation of public poll results, but I wouldn't describe these averages as transparent at all!
The methodology page doesn't share any details about how weights are determined or how they are "empirically grounded."
Cf the methodology at fiftyplusone.news/methodology
The methodology page doesn't share any details about how weights are determined or how they are "empirically grounded."
Cf the methodology at fiftyplusone.news/methodology
VoteHub has rebuilt its polling averages from the ground up.
They’re stable, transparent, and empirically grounded — and this year, we’ll be publishing averages for every federal race and key primary.
votehub.com/2026/01/22/o...
They’re stable, transparent, and empirically grounded — and this year, we’ll be publishing averages for every federal race and key primary.
votehub.com/2026/01/22/o...
Our 2026 Polling Averages Explained
VoteHub’s rebuilt polling averages deliver stable, transparent snapshots of public opinion by weighting polls for quality, recency, and consistency across the 2026 election cycle.
votehub.com
January 23, 2026 at 8:08 PM
Good to see another aggregation of public poll results, but I wouldn't describe these averages as transparent at all!
The methodology page doesn't share any details about how weights are determined or how they are "empirically grounded."
Cf the methodology at fiftyplusone.news/methodology
The methodology page doesn't share any details about how weights are determined or how they are "empirically grounded."
Cf the methodology at fiftyplusone.news/methodology
Reposted by Cory McCartan
This WSJ story about the unconstitutional secret ICE administrative warrants memo shows everything that's wrong with legal journalism under a lawless presidency. The TLDR is that it falsely presents unconstitutional conduct as law-creating. Very important thread 🧵🧵🧵
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
ICE Moves to Enter Homes Without Warrants Signed by a Judge
The agency has a new policy relying on what’s known as an administrative warrant, showing the government has probable cause to believe a person is in the country illegally.
www.wsj.com
January 22, 2026 at 7:15 PM
This WSJ story about the unconstitutional secret ICE administrative warrants memo shows everything that's wrong with legal journalism under a lawless presidency. The TLDR is that it falsely presents unconstitutional conduct as law-creating. Very important thread 🧵🧵🧵
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
Reposted by Cory McCartan
#SCOTUS is likely to do the right thing in the Lisa Cook case.
But it's worth bearing in mind that this idea that the Fed is some bespoke exception to the unitary executive theory is utterly incoherent as a matter of both law and history—and is really just proof that the UET is itself bollocks:
But it's worth bearing in mind that this idea that the Fed is some bespoke exception to the unitary executive theory is utterly incoherent as a matter of both law and history—and is really just proof that the UET is itself bollocks:
153. Living by the Ipse Dixit
A constitutional principle like the "unitary executive theory" isn't worth all that much if the Supreme Court can conjure new, unprincipled exceptions to it by simply asserting that they exist.
www.stevevladeck.com
January 21, 2026 at 5:24 PM
#SCOTUS is likely to do the right thing in the Lisa Cook case.
But it's worth bearing in mind that this idea that the Fed is some bespoke exception to the unitary executive theory is utterly incoherent as a matter of both law and history—and is really just proof that the UET is itself bollocks:
But it's worth bearing in mind that this idea that the Fed is some bespoke exception to the unitary executive theory is utterly incoherent as a matter of both law and history—and is really just proof that the UET is itself bollocks:
Last fall I shared new methods research with @shirokuriwaki.bsky.social on ecological inference—inferring individual relationships from aggregate data.
Our new review WP frames past EI methods as linear models, and argues credible EI requires controlling for covariates
arxiv.org/abs/2601.07668
Our new review WP frames past EI methods as linear models, and argues credible EI requires controlling for covariates
arxiv.org/abs/2601.07668
January 13, 2026 at 5:13 PM
Last fall I shared new methods research with @shirokuriwaki.bsky.social on ecological inference—inferring individual relationships from aggregate data.
Our new review WP frames past EI methods as linear models, and argues credible EI requires controlling for covariates
arxiv.org/abs/2601.07668
Our new review WP frames past EI methods as linear models, and argues credible EI requires controlling for covariates
arxiv.org/abs/2601.07668
Reposted by Cory McCartan
it has been truly amazing to see certain people who would normally acknowledge things like this contort their positions in crazy ways just to avoid admitting something that might hurt their ability to win contracts (campaign messages don't matter as much as conditions and wouldn't have saved Harris)
Short thread. Can't emphasize this point enough. This plus the worldwide context (that most incumbent parties did even worse. Also my guess is always that the swing to GOP and other out-parties was part economy and part/most post-pandemic general unhappiness, not just economy).
December 11, 2025 at 6:11 PM
it has been truly amazing to see certain people who would normally acknowledge things like this contort their positions in crazy ways just to avoid admitting something that might hurt their ability to win contracts (campaign messages don't matter as much as conditions and wouldn't have saved Harris)
Incredible research and really good summary thread. Hopefully we can take more intentional steps to foster success for FGLI students in the academy
In our research on socioeconomic background in academia, we ran a survey. Over 2,000 faculty members responded (thanks if you were one!)
Social & cultural capital showed up time and again as key issues.
A few findings you might be interested in...🧵
Social & cultural capital showed up time and again as key issues.
A few findings you might be interested in...🧵
❓ What do people’s own words reveal about their economic decisions?
A new JEL article by Ingar Haaland, Christopher Roth, Stefanie Stantcheva and Johannes Wohlfart shows how open-ended survey responses offer insights that standard surveys often miss.
🔎Read more here: www.nhh.no/en/research-...
A new JEL article by Ingar Haaland, Christopher Roth, Stefanie Stantcheva and Johannes Wohlfart shows how open-ended survey responses offer insights that standard surveys often miss.
🔎Read more here: www.nhh.no/en/research-...
December 9, 2025 at 5:18 PM
Incredible research and really good summary thread. Hopefully we can take more intentional steps to foster success for FGLI students in the academy
Reposted by Cory McCartan
Unpopular opinion: computer science has to publish fewer papers per year and rethink its peer review model
“Farid says that he now counsels students to not go into AI research, because of the “frenzy” in the field and the large volume of low-quality work being put out by people hoping to better their career prospects”
www.theguardian.com/technology/2...
www.theguardian.com/technology/2...
Artificial intelligence research has a slop problem, academics say: ‘It’s a mess’
AI research in question as author claims to have written over 100 papers on AI that one expert calls a ‘disaster’
www.theguardian.com
December 7, 2025 at 7:15 PM
Unpopular opinion: computer science has to publish fewer papers per year and rethink its peer review model
Reposted by Cory McCartan
Study after study shows campaign ads barely move the needle. So where does money’s real power come from? I ranked the five ways money corrupts politics—from least to most corrosive. What I’ve learned from 15 years of tracking political money:
Money Doesn't Buy Elections. It Does Something Worse.
Campaign ads barely move the needle. The real influence is hiding in plain sight.
open.substack.com
December 6, 2025 at 8:22 PM
Study after study shows campaign ads barely move the needle. So where does money’s real power come from? I ranked the five ways money corrupts politics—from least to most corrosive. What I’ve learned from 15 years of tracking political money:
Reposted by Cory McCartan
Interestingly, the TX gerrymander doesn't have any net impact in a D+12 environment
Plots below show new effect of redistricting this cycle—cf left with the changes vs right if the 3-judge ruling holds
Plots below show new effect of redistricting this cycle—cf left with the changes vs right if the 3-judge ruling holds
December 3, 2025 at 2:42 AM
Interestingly, the TX gerrymander doesn't have any net impact in a D+12 environment
Plots below show new effect of redistricting this cycle—cf left with the changes vs right if the 3-judge ruling holds
Plots below show new effect of redistricting this cycle—cf left with the changes vs right if the 3-judge ruling holds
Reposted by Cory McCartan
As a follow up to this: In the area where I hang out, I have big concerns about external validity. I see a lot of, "when a local official says X, people trust elex more!" That's important, sure, but... The house-on-fire emergency is the whole election denialism movement. Something about deck chairs
SO MANY SURVEY EXPERIMENTS. They have their places, sure, but... Almost 20% of papers? Come on, study peoples' actual behavior!!!
Political scientists love their survey experiments.
December 3, 2025 at 10:16 PM
As a follow up to this: In the area where I hang out, I have big concerns about external validity. I see a lot of, "when a local official says X, people trust elex more!" That's important, sure, but... The house-on-fire emergency is the whole election denialism movement. Something about deck chairs
Reposted by Cory McCartan
A recap of tonight's special election in TN-07 (plus a WAY-TOO-EARLY model of the 2026 midterms).
A swing of 13 points would put Dems over 250 seats in the U.S. House. A more reasonable scenario—say, D+6—still gives them the House, and maybe the Senate.
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-the-s...
A swing of 13 points would put Dems over 250 seats in the U.S. House. A more reasonable scenario—say, D+6—still gives them the House, and maybe the Senate.
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-the-s...
What the special election in Tennessee's Seventh District means for the 2026 midterms
Republicans held a Trump +22 seat — but by only 9 points. A swing half as large would give Democrats the U.S. House in 2026, and put the Senate clearly in play
www.gelliottmorris.com
December 3, 2025 at 3:56 AM
A recap of tonight's special election in TN-07 (plus a WAY-TOO-EARLY model of the 2026 midterms).
A swing of 13 points would put Dems over 250 seats in the U.S. House. A more reasonable scenario—say, D+6—still gives them the House, and maybe the Senate.
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-the-s...
A swing of 13 points would put Dems over 250 seats in the U.S. House. A more reasonable scenario—say, D+6—still gives them the House, and maybe the Senate.
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-the-s...
Reposted by Cory McCartan
This is an impressive project. My reaction to what it shows though is that survey experiments have gotten out of hand in polisci. I will blog more on this, but I do not think survey experiments are emblematic of the credibility revolution. Some are already interpreting as such, which is a problem.
New paper! @william-dinneen.bsky.social @guygrossman.bsky.social Yiqing Xu and I use GPT to code 91k articles from 174 polisci journals (2003–2023)and track research designs, transparency practices, and citations. How has the credibility revolution reshaped the discipline? doi.org/10.31235/osf...
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December 3, 2025 at 4:34 AM
This is an impressive project. My reaction to what it shows though is that survey experiments have gotten out of hand in polisci. I will blog more on this, but I do not think survey experiments are emblematic of the credibility revolution. Some are already interpreting as such, which is a problem.
Reposted by Cory McCartan
Democrats fail to flip TN 7, but it's another big overperformance
Blue shift of ~14 pts, which is nearly on par with shifts in other U.S. House specials this year
Ds hit vote target in Nashville, but more rural counties didn't shift as much
Turnout notable: ~180K total votes, matching '22 midterm
Blue shift of ~14 pts, which is nearly on par with shifts in other U.S. House specials this year
Ds hit vote target in Nashville, but more rural counties didn't shift as much
Turnout notable: ~180K total votes, matching '22 midterm
December 3, 2025 at 3:07 AM
Democrats fail to flip TN 7, but it's another big overperformance
Blue shift of ~14 pts, which is nearly on par with shifts in other U.S. House specials this year
Ds hit vote target in Nashville, but more rural counties didn't shift as much
Turnout notable: ~180K total votes, matching '22 midterm
Blue shift of ~14 pts, which is nearly on par with shifts in other U.S. House specials this year
Ds hit vote target in Nashville, but more rural counties didn't shift as much
Turnout notable: ~180K total votes, matching '22 midterm
Interestingly, the TX gerrymander doesn't have any net impact in a D+12 environment
Plots below show new effect of redistricting this cycle—cf left with the changes vs right if the 3-judge ruling holds
Plots below show new effect of redistricting this cycle—cf left with the changes vs right if the 3-judge ruling holds
December 3, 2025 at 2:42 AM
Interestingly, the TX gerrymander doesn't have any net impact in a D+12 environment
Plots below show new effect of redistricting this cycle—cf left with the changes vs right if the 3-judge ruling holds
Plots below show new effect of redistricting this cycle—cf left with the changes vs right if the 3-judge ruling holds
Davidson/Nashville swinging D+25 is wild
Most swing districts next year won't look the way TN-07 does, with mainly rural counties that are shifting D by less
Most swing districts next year won't look the way TN-07 does, with mainly rural counties that are shifting D by less
December 3, 2025 at 2:34 AM
Davidson/Nashville swinging D+25 is wild
Most swing districts next year won't look the way TN-07 does, with mainly rural counties that are shifting D by less
Most swing districts next year won't look the way TN-07 does, with mainly rural counties that are shifting D by less