Cory McCartan
@corymccartan.com
Asst. Prof. of Statistics & Political Science at Penn State. I study stats methods, gerrymandering, & elections. Bayesian. Founder of UGSDW and proud alum of HGSU-UAW L. 5118.
corymccartan.com
corymccartan.com
Where is the 27th amendment when you need it
Look at this new outrage. To open govt, we're retroactively letting 8 Senators sue for $500K each over having had their J6 phone toll records looked at. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/10/u...
Spending Bill Would Pave Way for Senators to Sue Over Phone Searches
www.nytimes.com
November 11, 2025 at 12:49 AM
Where is the 27th amendment when you need it
Reposted by Cory McCartan
Ipsos finds Trump’s approval rating is decreasing almost entirely because of anti-incumbent economic anxiety. Approval rating among people who say the economy is the # 1 issue is -24pts since Jan. It’s stable for people who index on all other issues www.ipsos.com/en-us/lesson...
November 9, 2025 at 3:27 PM
Ipsos finds Trump’s approval rating is decreasing almost entirely because of anti-incumbent economic anxiety. Approval rating among people who say the economy is the # 1 issue is -24pts since Jan. It’s stable for people who index on all other issues www.ipsos.com/en-us/lesson...
Reposted by Cory McCartan
Wow. Fresh data from NYC Board of Elections on electorate
Of those voting Tuesday, 17% are <30 and 25% are 30-44
Add to 41% of early voters <45, and share of young is much higher than recent mayorals
So while turnout increased in communities across the city, it increased *more* among young people
Of those voting Tuesday, 17% are <30 and 25% are 30-44
Add to 41% of early voters <45, and share of young is much higher than recent mayorals
So while turnout increased in communities across the city, it increased *more* among young people
November 6, 2025 at 4:57 PM
Wow. Fresh data from NYC Board of Elections on electorate
Of those voting Tuesday, 17% are <30 and 25% are 30-44
Add to 41% of early voters <45, and share of young is much higher than recent mayorals
So while turnout increased in communities across the city, it increased *more* among young people
Of those voting Tuesday, 17% are <30 and 25% are 30-44
Add to 41% of early voters <45, and share of young is much higher than recent mayorals
So while turnout increased in communities across the city, it increased *more* among young people
Reposted by Cory McCartan
Mamdani's win by NYC neighborhood: datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Wrd72/4/
Hover over map to see our estimates...
#CBSDataDesk🍎
Hover over map to see our estimates...
#CBSDataDesk🍎
2025 NYC Mayoral Race by Neighborhood
datawrapper.dwcdn.net
November 5, 2025 at 2:56 AM
Mamdani's win by NYC neighborhood: datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Wrd72/4/
Hover over map to see our estimates...
#CBSDataDesk🍎
Hover over map to see our estimates...
#CBSDataDesk🍎
NYC precinct map: Mamdani now vs the primary
Purple = relative improvement vs primary
Orange = relative loss vs primary (e.g. GOP voters)
Takeaway? Mamdani improved significantly with Black voters since June! We see this in EI estimates as well: Mamdani likely won Black voters ~ 52/43 vs Cuomo
Purple = relative improvement vs primary
Orange = relative loss vs primary (e.g. GOP voters)
Takeaway? Mamdani improved significantly with Black voters since June! We see this in EI estimates as well: Mamdani likely won Black voters ~ 52/43 vs Cuomo
November 5, 2025 at 3:48 AM
NYC precinct map: Mamdani now vs the primary
Purple = relative improvement vs primary
Orange = relative loss vs primary (e.g. GOP voters)
Takeaway? Mamdani improved significantly with Black voters since June! We see this in EI estimates as well: Mamdani likely won Black voters ~ 52/43 vs Cuomo
Purple = relative improvement vs primary
Orange = relative loss vs primary (e.g. GOP voters)
Takeaway? Mamdani improved significantly with Black voters since June! We see this in EI estimates as well: Mamdani likely won Black voters ~ 52/43 vs Cuomo
Precinct-level NYC data: Mamdani exceeded our voterfile-based expectations, Cuomo slightly exceeded them; Sliwa fell way behind, especially in places he was expected to do well!
November 5, 2025 at 3:42 AM
Precinct-level NYC data: Mamdani exceeded our voterfile-based expectations, Cuomo slightly exceeded them; Sliwa fell way behind, especially in places he was expected to do well!
In VA Gov precinct data, we are seeing a ~6pp shift on Spanberger vote share (y axis) versus 2024 president (x axis). Bit smaller in GOP precincts and bit larger in Dem precincts
cf an R+5.5 shift (on vote share) from Biden '20 to McAullife in '21
cf an R+5.5 shift (on vote share) from Biden '20 to McAullife in '21
November 5, 2025 at 1:50 AM
In VA Gov precinct data, we are seeing a ~6pp shift on Spanberger vote share (y axis) versus 2024 president (x axis). Bit smaller in GOP precincts and bit larger in Dem precincts
cf an R+5.5 shift (on vote share) from Biden '20 to McAullife in '21
cf an R+5.5 shift (on vote share) from Biden '20 to McAullife in '21
Here at the CBS News data desk with @chriskenny.bsky.social and @simko.bsky.social! Looking at the VA numbers
November 5, 2025 at 12:55 AM
Here at the CBS News data desk with @chriskenny.bsky.social and @simko.bsky.social! Looking at the VA numbers
This election night I will be working the Data Desk at CBS News, focusing on the NYC mayoral race! Will try to post some things we are seeing in our precinct-level data and analyses, and maybe some cool maps like this one of Mamdani vs Harris support
November 4, 2025 at 6:07 PM
This election night I will be working the Data Desk at CBS News, focusing on the NYC mayoral race! Will try to post some things we are seeing in our precinct-level data and analyses, and maybe some cool maps like this one of Mamdani vs Harris support
Reposted by Cory McCartan
As expected, share of NYC early voters <45 has grown over early voting period...
As of today, it's 39% of the 584K voters who've checked in, meaning it's a younger electorate than in past two mayorals
And we see healthy turnout in parts of Brooklyn and Queens where Mamdani did well in the primary
As of today, it's 39% of the 584K voters who've checked in, meaning it's a younger electorate than in past two mayorals
And we see healthy turnout in parts of Brooklyn and Queens where Mamdani did well in the primary
November 1, 2025 at 11:20 PM
As expected, share of NYC early voters <45 has grown over early voting period...
As of today, it's 39% of the 584K voters who've checked in, meaning it's a younger electorate than in past two mayorals
And we see healthy turnout in parts of Brooklyn and Queens where Mamdani did well in the primary
As of today, it's 39% of the 584K voters who've checked in, meaning it's a younger electorate than in past two mayorals
And we see healthy turnout in parts of Brooklyn and Queens where Mamdani did well in the primary
Very important point in the WAR debate, but I think the radical centrists take their argument farther: they think the whole party's fortune can be shifted by moderating! When in fact voters judge moderates relative to the party line. Major fallacy of composition IMO
This is the sound of candidates losing the struggle against the crushing weight of partisan gravity.
This is nationalization and polarization and presidentialization swallowing everything else.
This is the dangerous collapse of dimensionality, in one chart
leedrutman.substack.com/p/the-modera...
This is nationalization and polarization and presidentialization swallowing everything else.
This is the dangerous collapse of dimensionality, in one chart
leedrutman.substack.com/p/the-modera...
October 31, 2025 at 12:22 AM
Very important point in the WAR debate, but I think the radical centrists take their argument farther: they think the whole party's fortune can be shifted by moderating! When in fact voters judge moderates relative to the party line. Major fallacy of composition IMO
Reposted by Cory McCartan
My main takeaway on the “moderation” debate is that Democrats would be better served by other debates besides left-right positioning, like how to develop new valence issues (corruption!) as wedge issues, and how to get attention for their policy proposals in the first place
October 28, 2025 at 1:16 AM
My main takeaway on the “moderation” debate is that Democrats would be better served by other debates besides left-right positioning, like how to develop new valence issues (corruption!) as wedge issues, and how to get attention for their policy proposals in the first place
Reposted by Cory McCartan
This is why the Dems' "white men" panic bothers me so much. Instead of listening to the people who have multigenerational experience with the worst aspects of Trump II's America, it turns the defense mechanism born from that experience (stay woke) into a pejorative.
Blacks and Jews have always been safer in America when they worked together and watched each other's backs.
They may be on the lookout for different clues, but more often than not they have their eye on the same people.
Like having a smoke alarm and a carbon monoxide detector in your kitchen.
They may be on the lookout for different clues, but more often than not they have their eye on the same people.
Like having a smoke alarm and a carbon monoxide detector in your kitchen.
They latch onto the number 14, so Black people clue Jewish folks in. Then they move to 88 and Jewish people return the favor. Then they move to 1919 and everybody's like, "At least TRY to hide, you idiot!"
October 23, 2025 at 3:38 PM
This is why the Dems' "white men" panic bothers me so much. Instead of listening to the people who have multigenerational experience with the worst aspects of Trump II's America, it turns the defense mechanism born from that experience (stay woke) into a pejorative.
A few weeks ago I shared a new WP on doing ecological inference—learning individual relationships from aggregate data, such as vote choice by race from precinct data.
Excited now to introduce `seine`, our open-source R package for doing EI easily and efficiently!
corymccartan.com/seine/
Excited now to introduce `seine`, our open-source R package for doing EI easily and efficiently!
corymccartan.com/seine/
October 21, 2025 at 3:31 PM
A few weeks ago I shared a new WP on doing ecological inference—learning individual relationships from aggregate data, such as vote choice by race from precinct data.
Excited now to introduce `seine`, our open-source R package for doing EI easily and efficiently!
corymccartan.com/seine/
Excited now to introduce `seine`, our open-source R package for doing EI easily and efficiently!
corymccartan.com/seine/
Reposted by Cory McCartan
It is egregious, but this is the normal framing for a normal minority party making normal policy demands in a shutdown standoff, which is how Democrats have chosen to present it. The whole ACA focus has made it easier, not harder, to push a "blame Dems for the shutdown" narrative.
Egregious framing from @apnews.com:
"Democrats are making good on their threat to close the government if President Donald Trump and Republicans won’t accede to their health care demands."
"Democrats are making good on their threat to close the government if President Donald Trump and Republicans won’t accede to their health care demands."
BREAKING: Democrats vote down a GOP bill to keep the government open, putting it on track for shutdown after midnight.
October 1, 2025 at 1:01 AM
It is egregious, but this is the normal framing for a normal minority party making normal policy demands in a shutdown standoff, which is how Democrats have chosen to present it. The whole ACA focus has made it easier, not harder, to push a "blame Dems for the shutdown" narrative.
Very excited to share this week a new paper on EI that is two years in the making! What is EI? It's everywhere! EI is when you try to learn about individual relationships from aggregate data.
We formalize identification & propose an efficient, assumption-lean estimator!
We formalize identification & propose an efficient, assumption-lean estimator!
September 26, 2025 at 7:42 PM
Very excited to share this week a new paper on EI that is two years in the making! What is EI? It's everywhere! EI is when you try to learn about individual relationships from aggregate data.
We formalize identification & propose an efficient, assumption-lean estimator!
We formalize identification & propose an efficient, assumption-lean estimator!
Reposted by Cory McCartan
I’m starting to notice a trend in the polling data…
—Top Public Worry: Corruption
—Biggest problem in Fed Gov: Corruption
—Top fear: Corruption
—What one word would you use to describe American government?: “Corrupt”
It’s almost like voters are trying to tell us something.
—Top Public Worry: Corruption
—Biggest problem in Fed Gov: Corruption
—Top fear: Corruption
—What one word would you use to describe American government?: “Corrupt”
It’s almost like voters are trying to tell us something.
September 25, 2025 at 8:50 PM
I’m starting to notice a trend in the polling data…
—Top Public Worry: Corruption
—Biggest problem in Fed Gov: Corruption
—Top fear: Corruption
—What one word would you use to describe American government?: “Corrupt”
It’s almost like voters are trying to tell us something.
—Top Public Worry: Corruption
—Biggest problem in Fed Gov: Corruption
—Top fear: Corruption
—What one word would you use to describe American government?: “Corrupt”
It’s almost like voters are trying to tell us something.
Reposted by Cory McCartan
This is it.
Cancel culture, but for real. The Twitter Files, but for real. Actual, unadulterated collusion between the government and media-owning corporations to censor Americans.
Shame on the MAGA libertarians and fake-heterodox civility cops who helped pave this road to authoritarianism.
Cancel culture, but for real. The Twitter Files, but for real. Actual, unadulterated collusion between the government and media-owning corporations to censor Americans.
Shame on the MAGA libertarians and fake-heterodox civility cops who helped pave this road to authoritarianism.
September 17, 2025 at 10:39 PM
This is it.
Cancel culture, but for real. The Twitter Files, but for real. Actual, unadulterated collusion between the government and media-owning corporations to censor Americans.
Shame on the MAGA libertarians and fake-heterodox civility cops who helped pave this road to authoritarianism.
Cancel culture, but for real. The Twitter Files, but for real. Actual, unadulterated collusion between the government and media-owning corporations to censor Americans.
Shame on the MAGA libertarians and fake-heterodox civility cops who helped pave this road to authoritarianism.
PSU poli sci is hiring in APB and non-democratic politics (CP/IR)! Apply!
psu.wd1.myworkdayjobs.com/en-US/PSU_Ac...
psu.wd1.myworkdayjobs.com/en-US/PSU_Ac...
psu.wd1.myworkdayjobs.com/en-US/PSU_Ac...
psu.wd1.myworkdayjobs.com/en-US/PSU_Ac...
Assistant Professor, Political Science
APPLICATION INSTRUCTIONS: CURRENT PENN STATE EMPLOYEE (faculty, staff, technical service, or student), please login to Workday to complete the internal application process. Please do not apply here, a...
psu.wd1.myworkdayjobs.com
September 8, 2025 at 7:45 PM
PSU poli sci is hiring in APB and non-democratic politics (CP/IR)! Apply!
psu.wd1.myworkdayjobs.com/en-US/PSU_Ac...
psu.wd1.myworkdayjobs.com/en-US/PSU_Ac...
psu.wd1.myworkdayjobs.com/en-US/PSU_Ac...
psu.wd1.myworkdayjobs.com/en-US/PSU_Ac...
Reposted by Cory McCartan
This is literally the largest act of union busting in American history.
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/01/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/01/u...
Trump Orders Have Stripped Nearly Half a Million Federal Workers of Union Rights
www.nytimes.com
September 1, 2025 at 9:08 PM
This is literally the largest act of union busting in American history.
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/01/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/01/u...
Reposted by Cory McCartan
If Redistricting Goes as Expected, Which Party Will Come Out Ahead?
Democrats would probably need to win the national popular vote by two or three percentage points to retake the House next year.
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/31/u...
Democrats would probably need to win the national popular vote by two or three percentage points to retake the House next year.
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/31/u...
August 31, 2025 at 10:11 PM
If Redistricting Goes as Expected, Which Party Will Come Out Ahead?
Democrats would probably need to win the national popular vote by two or three percentage points to retake the House next year.
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/31/u...
Democrats would probably need to win the national popular vote by two or three percentage points to retake the House next year.
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/31/u...
Reposted by Cory McCartan
Updated working paper for "Individual and Differential Harm in Redistricting" with @corymccartan.com
Provides an better method to evaluate electoral fairness, focused on individuals and explicit counterfactuals. One framework for party, race, ideology, religion, etc.
Updated draft: osf.io/nc2x7_v2
Provides an better method to evaluate electoral fairness, focused on individuals and explicit counterfactuals. One framework for party, race, ideology, religion, etc.
Updated draft: osf.io/nc2x7_v2
OSF
osf.io
August 26, 2025 at 2:44 PM
Updated working paper for "Individual and Differential Harm in Redistricting" with @corymccartan.com
Provides an better method to evaluate electoral fairness, focused on individuals and explicit counterfactuals. One framework for party, race, ideology, religion, etc.
Updated draft: osf.io/nc2x7_v2
Provides an better method to evaluate electoral fairness, focused on individuals and explicit counterfactuals. One framework for party, race, ideology, religion, etc.
Updated draft: osf.io/nc2x7_v2
DJT in probability class: "thank you for your attention to this measure"
August 25, 2025 at 8:31 PM
DJT in probability class: "thank you for your attention to this measure"
Reposted by Cory McCartan
Take a look at our new working paper, which separates out changes in gerrymandering and geography to better understand bias in congressional redistricting.
US geography is becoming slightly more balanced in terms of House seats, but competition is decreasing, largely due to geographic polarization.
US geography is becoming slightly more balanced in terms of House seats, but competition is decreasing, largely due to geographic polarization.
Timely WP from our ALARM project team: we generated over 200k simulated maps for the 2010 cycle, to compare against our existing 2020 simulations. This lets us disentangle changes in gerrymandering from changes in political geography!
alarm-redist.org/papers/ggpre...
alarm-redist.org/papers/ggpre...
August 22, 2025 at 9:39 PM
Take a look at our new working paper, which separates out changes in gerrymandering and geography to better understand bias in congressional redistricting.
US geography is becoming slightly more balanced in terms of House seats, but competition is decreasing, largely due to geographic polarization.
US geography is becoming slightly more balanced in terms of House seats, but competition is decreasing, largely due to geographic polarization.
Timely WP from our ALARM project team: we generated over 200k simulated maps for the 2010 cycle, to compare against our existing 2020 simulations. This lets us disentangle changes in gerrymandering from changes in political geography!
alarm-redist.org/papers/ggpre...
alarm-redist.org/papers/ggpre...
August 22, 2025 at 4:38 PM
Timely WP from our ALARM project team: we generated over 200k simulated maps for the 2010 cycle, to compare against our existing 2020 simulations. This lets us disentangle changes in gerrymandering from changes in political geography!
alarm-redist.org/papers/ggpre...
alarm-redist.org/papers/ggpre...