Cory McCartan
@corymccartan.com
Asst. Prof. of Statistics & Political Science at Penn State. I study stats methods, gerrymandering, & elections. Bayesian. Founder of UGSDW and proud alum of HGSU-UAW L. 5118.
corymccartan.com
corymccartan.com
Reposted by Cory McCartan
it has been truly amazing to see certain people who would normally acknowledge things like this contort their positions in crazy ways just to avoid admitting something that might hurt their ability to win contracts (campaign messages don't matter as much as conditions and wouldn't have saved Harris)
Short thread. Can't emphasize this point enough. This plus the worldwide context (that most incumbent parties did even worse. Also my guess is always that the swing to GOP and other out-parties was part economy and part/most post-pandemic general unhappiness, not just economy).
It's inconvenient for people interested in Dem factional fights, or Obama 2012 veterans trying to get consulting work. But we have known since several days after the election that Trump gained fewer votes from 2020-2024 in swing states that were exposed to campaign messages than in other states. /1
December 11, 2025 at 6:11 PM
it has been truly amazing to see certain people who would normally acknowledge things like this contort their positions in crazy ways just to avoid admitting something that might hurt their ability to win contracts (campaign messages don't matter as much as conditions and wouldn't have saved Harris)
Incredible research and really good summary thread. Hopefully we can take more intentional steps to foster success for FGLI students in the academy
In our research on socioeconomic background in academia, we ran a survey. Over 2,000 faculty members responded (thanks if you were one!)
Social & cultural capital showed up time and again as key issues.
A few findings you might be interested in...🧵
Social & cultural capital showed up time and again as key issues.
A few findings you might be interested in...🧵
❓ What do people’s own words reveal about their economic decisions?
A new JEL article by Ingar Haaland, Christopher Roth, Stefanie Stantcheva and Johannes Wohlfart shows how open-ended survey responses offer insights that standard surveys often miss.
🔎Read more here: www.nhh.no/en/research-...
A new JEL article by Ingar Haaland, Christopher Roth, Stefanie Stantcheva and Johannes Wohlfart shows how open-ended survey responses offer insights that standard surveys often miss.
🔎Read more here: www.nhh.no/en/research-...
December 9, 2025 at 5:18 PM
Incredible research and really good summary thread. Hopefully we can take more intentional steps to foster success for FGLI students in the academy
Reposted by Cory McCartan
Unpopular opinion: computer science has to publish fewer papers per year and rethink its peer review model
“Farid says that he now counsels students to not go into AI research, because of the “frenzy” in the field and the large volume of low-quality work being put out by people hoping to better their career prospects”
www.theguardian.com/technology/2...
www.theguardian.com/technology/2...
Artificial intelligence research has a slop problem, academics say: ‘It’s a mess’
AI research in question as author claims to have written over 100 papers on AI that one expert calls a ‘disaster’
www.theguardian.com
December 7, 2025 at 7:15 PM
Unpopular opinion: computer science has to publish fewer papers per year and rethink its peer review model
Reposted by Cory McCartan
Study after study shows campaign ads barely move the needle. So where does money’s real power come from? I ranked the five ways money corrupts politics—from least to most corrosive. What I’ve learned from 15 years of tracking political money:
Money Doesn't Buy Elections. It Does Something Worse.
Campaign ads barely move the needle. The real influence is hiding in plain sight.
open.substack.com
December 6, 2025 at 8:22 PM
Study after study shows campaign ads barely move the needle. So where does money’s real power come from? I ranked the five ways money corrupts politics—from least to most corrosive. What I’ve learned from 15 years of tracking political money:
Reposted by Cory McCartan
Interestingly, the TX gerrymander doesn't have any net impact in a D+12 environment
Plots below show new effect of redistricting this cycle—cf left with the changes vs right if the 3-judge ruling holds
Plots below show new effect of redistricting this cycle—cf left with the changes vs right if the 3-judge ruling holds
December 3, 2025 at 2:42 AM
Interestingly, the TX gerrymander doesn't have any net impact in a D+12 environment
Plots below show new effect of redistricting this cycle—cf left with the changes vs right if the 3-judge ruling holds
Plots below show new effect of redistricting this cycle—cf left with the changes vs right if the 3-judge ruling holds
Reposted by Cory McCartan
As a follow up to this: In the area where I hang out, I have big concerns about external validity. I see a lot of, "when a local official says X, people trust elex more!" That's important, sure, but... The house-on-fire emergency is the whole election denialism movement. Something about deck chairs
SO MANY SURVEY EXPERIMENTS. They have their places, sure, but... Almost 20% of papers? Come on, study peoples' actual behavior!!!
Political scientists love their survey experiments.
December 3, 2025 at 10:16 PM
As a follow up to this: In the area where I hang out, I have big concerns about external validity. I see a lot of, "when a local official says X, people trust elex more!" That's important, sure, but... The house-on-fire emergency is the whole election denialism movement. Something about deck chairs
Reposted by Cory McCartan
A recap of tonight's special election in TN-07 (plus a WAY-TOO-EARLY model of the 2026 midterms).
A swing of 13 points would put Dems over 250 seats in the U.S. House. A more reasonable scenario—say, D+6—still gives them the House, and maybe the Senate.
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-the-s...
A swing of 13 points would put Dems over 250 seats in the U.S. House. A more reasonable scenario—say, D+6—still gives them the House, and maybe the Senate.
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-the-s...
What the special election in Tennessee's Seventh District means for the 2026 midterms
Republicans held a Trump +22 seat — but by only 9 points. A swing half as large would give Democrats the U.S. House in 2026, and put the Senate clearly in play
www.gelliottmorris.com
December 3, 2025 at 3:56 AM
A recap of tonight's special election in TN-07 (plus a WAY-TOO-EARLY model of the 2026 midterms).
A swing of 13 points would put Dems over 250 seats in the U.S. House. A more reasonable scenario—say, D+6—still gives them the House, and maybe the Senate.
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-the-s...
A swing of 13 points would put Dems over 250 seats in the U.S. House. A more reasonable scenario—say, D+6—still gives them the House, and maybe the Senate.
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-the-s...
Reposted by Cory McCartan
This is an impressive project. My reaction to what it shows though is that survey experiments have gotten out of hand in polisci. I will blog more on this, but I do not think survey experiments are emblematic of the credibility revolution. Some are already interpreting as such, which is a problem.
New paper! @william-dinneen.bsky.social @guygrossman.bsky.social Yiqing Xu and I use GPT to code 91k articles from 174 polisci journals (2003–2023)and track research designs, transparency practices, and citations. How has the credibility revolution reshaped the discipline? doi.org/10.31235/osf...
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December 3, 2025 at 4:34 AM
This is an impressive project. My reaction to what it shows though is that survey experiments have gotten out of hand in polisci. I will blog more on this, but I do not think survey experiments are emblematic of the credibility revolution. Some are already interpreting as such, which is a problem.
Reposted by Cory McCartan
Democrats fail to flip TN 7, but it's another big overperformance
Blue shift of ~14 pts, which is nearly on par with shifts in other U.S. House specials this year
Ds hit vote target in Nashville, but more rural counties didn't shift as much
Turnout notable: ~180K total votes, matching '22 midterm
Blue shift of ~14 pts, which is nearly on par with shifts in other U.S. House specials this year
Ds hit vote target in Nashville, but more rural counties didn't shift as much
Turnout notable: ~180K total votes, matching '22 midterm
December 3, 2025 at 3:07 AM
Democrats fail to flip TN 7, but it's another big overperformance
Blue shift of ~14 pts, which is nearly on par with shifts in other U.S. House specials this year
Ds hit vote target in Nashville, but more rural counties didn't shift as much
Turnout notable: ~180K total votes, matching '22 midterm
Blue shift of ~14 pts, which is nearly on par with shifts in other U.S. House specials this year
Ds hit vote target in Nashville, but more rural counties didn't shift as much
Turnout notable: ~180K total votes, matching '22 midterm
Interestingly, the TX gerrymander doesn't have any net impact in a D+12 environment
Plots below show new effect of redistricting this cycle—cf left with the changes vs right if the 3-judge ruling holds
Plots below show new effect of redistricting this cycle—cf left with the changes vs right if the 3-judge ruling holds
December 3, 2025 at 2:42 AM
Interestingly, the TX gerrymander doesn't have any net impact in a D+12 environment
Plots below show new effect of redistricting this cycle—cf left with the changes vs right if the 3-judge ruling holds
Plots below show new effect of redistricting this cycle—cf left with the changes vs right if the 3-judge ruling holds
Davidson/Nashville swinging D+25 is wild
Most swing districts next year won't look the way TN-07 does, with mainly rural counties that are shifting D by less
Most swing districts next year won't look the way TN-07 does, with mainly rural counties that are shifting D by less
December 3, 2025 at 2:34 AM
Davidson/Nashville swinging D+25 is wild
Most swing districts next year won't look the way TN-07 does, with mainly rural counties that are shifting D by less
Most swing districts next year won't look the way TN-07 does, with mainly rural counties that are shifting D by less
D+10-15 national environment would mean Dems end up ~100 seats over Rs in the House
tinyurl.com/cmchousemodel
tinyurl.com/cmchousemodel
December 3, 2025 at 2:30 AM
D+10-15 national environment would mean Dems end up ~100 seats over Rs in the House
tinyurl.com/cmchousemodel
tinyurl.com/cmchousemodel
Only early vote so far (see www.elections.tn.gov/county-break...) and unclear how/if this model handles vote method, but notably Montgomery county is only D+3 in the early vote. My feeling is it would take combo of massive turnout in Nashville + e-day overperformance district-wide for Behn to win
It's very early, but the first live estimate is R +2.9, which would be almost a 20-point overperformance by the Democrat Behn.
December 3, 2025 at 1:21 AM
Only early vote so far (see www.elections.tn.gov/county-break...) and unclear how/if this model handles vote method, but notably Montgomery county is only D+3 in the early vote. My feeling is it would take combo of massive turnout in Nashville + e-day overperformance district-wide for Behn to win
Reposted by Cory McCartan
New paper in press at JPSP! An adversarial collaboration focusing on a large-scale test of how strongly implicit racial attitudes predict discriminatory behavior. Pre-print here: osf.io/preprints/ps...
December 2, 2025 at 2:14 PM
New paper in press at JPSP! An adversarial collaboration focusing on a large-scale test of how strongly implicit racial attitudes predict discriminatory behavior. Pre-print here: osf.io/preprints/ps...
The guy they interview was also on Trump's data team! No hard questions asked about how "independent" this effort is
You see a new group like this pop up every few years because hoodwinking wealthy donors into thinking you can break the two party system with technology is incredibly lucrative. It's free money for a political consultant. www.npr.org/2025/12/01/g...
An independent effort says AI is the secret to topple 2-party power in Congress
Using artificial intelligence to identify congressional districts where independent candidates could win, an organization called the Independent Center is aiming to disrupt the two-party system.
www.npr.org
December 1, 2025 at 7:56 PM
The guy they interview was also on Trump's data team! No hard questions asked about how "independent" this effort is
Reposted by Cory McCartan
To me this is a depressing theme in modern academia.
There is so much work being produced, and so many competing demands on our time, that people rarely seem able to just closely read work and frankly say "yes, I believe this" or "no, I don't."
If we aren't doing this, what _are_ we doing?!
There is so much work being produced, and so many competing demands on our time, that people rarely seem able to just closely read work and frankly say "yes, I believe this" or "no, I don't."
If we aren't doing this, what _are_ we doing?!
November 30, 2025 at 10:57 AM
To me this is a depressing theme in modern academia.
There is so much work being produced, and so many competing demands on our time, that people rarely seem able to just closely read work and frankly say "yes, I believe this" or "no, I don't."
If we aren't doing this, what _are_ we doing?!
There is so much work being produced, and so many competing demands on our time, that people rarely seem able to just closely read work and frankly say "yes, I believe this" or "no, I don't."
If we aren't doing this, what _are_ we doing?!
Interesting to think about the mechanism here
Poetic language evidently signals that the preceding system prompt should be interpreted in a different, less literal, context. One could imagine learning the direction in model-space that leads to this reframing, and optimizing prompts to get there
Poetic language evidently signals that the preceding system prompt should be interpreted in a different, less literal, context. One could imagine learning the direction in model-space that leads to this reframing, and optimizing prompts to get there
“Adversarial poetry.”
Love this. Obvs.
Love this. Obvs.
November 20, 2025 at 6:48 PM
Interesting to think about the mechanism here
Poetic language evidently signals that the preceding system prompt should be interpreted in a different, less literal, context. One could imagine learning the direction in model-space that leads to this reframing, and optimizing prompts to get there
Poetic language evidently signals that the preceding system prompt should be interpreted in a different, less literal, context. One could imagine learning the direction in model-space that leads to this reframing, and optimizing prompts to get there
Reposted by Cory McCartan
"Before folks assume that one side of this fight clearly acted in bad faith and the other didn’t, it’s worth indulging the possibility that Purcell itself is the culprit—and that its standardless-ness creates perverse incentives for lower courts in election cases."
Me on the TX redistricting case:
Me on the TX redistricting case:
Bonus 193: The Pernicious Effects of Purcell
The remarkable row between the majority and dissent in the three-judge district court's ruling in the Texas redistricting case can be traced directly to the Supreme Court's election-related case law.
www.stevevladeck.com
November 20, 2025 at 12:23 PM
"Before folks assume that one side of this fight clearly acted in bad faith and the other didn’t, it’s worth indulging the possibility that Purcell itself is the culprit—and that its standardless-ness creates perverse incentives for lower courts in election cases."
Me on the TX redistricting case:
Me on the TX redistricting case:
IF it holds, this would net Dems 1.6 seats, on average, due to mid-decade redistricting (D+1 seat in a Dem-favoring environment)
November 18, 2025 at 6:52 PM
IF it holds, this would net Dems 1.6 seats, on average, due to mid-decade redistricting (D+1 seat in a Dem-favoring environment)
D+8.5 (±2) would be 245 Dem seats on average
November 17, 2025 at 10:27 PM
D+8.5 (±2) would be 245 Dem seats on average
Have updated my simple House model spreadsheet with currently enacted districting plans.
Net effect is R+0.4 seats on average (!), with actually a _Dem_ advantage past a D+8 national environment.
Copy, edit, & explore for yourself: tinyurl.com/cmchousemodel
Net effect is R+0.4 seats on average (!), with actually a _Dem_ advantage past a D+8 national environment.
Copy, edit, & explore for yourself: tinyurl.com/cmchousemodel
November 17, 2025 at 10:22 PM
Have updated my simple House model spreadsheet with currently enacted districting plans.
Net effect is R+0.4 seats on average (!), with actually a _Dem_ advantage past a D+8 national environment.
Copy, edit, & explore for yourself: tinyurl.com/cmchousemodel
Net effect is R+0.4 seats on average (!), with actually a _Dem_ advantage past a D+8 national environment.
Copy, edit, & explore for yourself: tinyurl.com/cmchousemodel
Reposted by Cory McCartan
I urge members of the legal profession to realize that prosecuting individuals who seek to overturn the constitutional order is not "retaliation" in any normatively significant sense.
November 17, 2025 at 2:23 PM
I urge members of the legal profession to realize that prosecuting individuals who seek to overturn the constitutional order is not "retaliation" in any normatively significant sense.
Reposted by Cory McCartan
In short, if a party is not trusted on an issue, moving from their 'expected' position is not believed by those who hold their new position, while those who hold the party's 'expected' position are alienated.
Those who hold more restrictive views on refugees are more likely to see Labour as pro-immigration, while those who hold more liberal views tend to see Labour as anti-immigration
yougov.co.uk/topics/polit...
yougov.co.uk/topics/polit...
November 17, 2025 at 5:12 PM
In short, if a party is not trusted on an issue, moving from their 'expected' position is not believed by those who hold their new position, while those who hold the party's 'expected' position are alienated.
This is such great news!
For those who don't know, I spent a lot of my grad school career helping (and eventually failing) to form a union at Penn State. We got a vote, but we lost. I'm so happy and excited for the grad workers there now. They deserve a union.
November 14, 2025 at 3:52 PM
This is such great news!
Reposted by Cory McCartan
If you have to get permission to teach in your area of expertise from people who are definitionally not qualified to adjudicate your expertise then you are no longer working at a university.
You’re working at a state propaganda factory.
You’re working at a state propaganda factory.
COLLEGE STATION, Texas (AP) — Texas A&M adopts policy requiring professors to get OK from school president to discuss certain race and gender issues.
November 13, 2025 at 11:48 PM
If you have to get permission to teach in your area of expertise from people who are definitionally not qualified to adjudicate your expertise then you are no longer working at a university.
You’re working at a state propaganda factory.
You’re working at a state propaganda factory.