Paul Hünermund
@p-hunermund.com
Associate Professor of Strategy & Innovation | Co-founder of causalscience.org | Associate Editor at Journal of Causal Inference | Executive Team at Academy of Management TIM Division
Pinned
📣 Come join a top-5 strategy department in Europe and work with me on an exciting topic at the intersection of causal AI and strategy 🤖📈
I'm recruiting a PhD student as part of my Sapere Aude Research Leader Grant from the Independent Research Fund Denmark. (1/3)
I'm recruiting a PhD student as part of my Sapere Aude Research Leader Grant from the Independent Research Fund Denmark. (1/3)
When the Baltic Sea freezes and the Swedes take to the ice, Danes start to get very nervous. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_A...
Interrupting my regularly scheduled programming to announce the happy news that the Baltic Sea froze over, generating vast surfaces suitable for long-distance skating. My old friend Jens Liljestrand and I took some time off to explore the edge of the archipelago today, and it was glorious ❄️❄️❄️
February 11, 2026 at 9:12 PM
When the Baltic Sea freezes and the Swedes take to the ice, Danes start to get very nervous. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_A...
See what you've done, Bob? Now you've summoned the Bayesians
February 11, 2026 at 8:56 PM
See what you've done, Bob? Now you've summoned the Bayesians
Reposted by Paul Hünermund
2% of your papers? 😉
February 11, 2026 at 7:37 PM
2% of your papers? 😉
"N" stands for "not publishable"
February 11, 2026 at 7:06 PM
"N" stands for "not publishable"
Reposted by Paul Hünermund
It's ironic to see a discipline care **so much** about unbiasedness (causal inference!) at the level of a single test but then have a research production system and culture that is basically a ferocious bias generation machine. This is not good.
February 11, 2026 at 5:00 PM
It's ironic to see a discipline care **so much** about unbiasedness (causal inference!) at the level of a single test but then have a research production system and culture that is basically a ferocious bias generation machine. This is not good.
Reposted by Paul Hünermund
It’s possible to reduce emissions while growing the economy. Many countries have decoupled economic growth from CO₂ emissions, even if we take offshored production into account.
You can see this in the chart for a selection of large economies.
You can see this in the chart for a selection of large economies.
February 11, 2026 at 2:15 PM
It’s possible to reduce emissions while growing the economy. Many countries have decoupled economic growth from CO₂ emissions, even if we take offshored production into account.
You can see this in the chart for a selection of large economies.
You can see this in the chart for a selection of large economies.
Reposted by Paul Hünermund
Ukraine is fighting the war of freedom. They are defending Europe.
🇪🇺 will provide 90 bln EUR loan for 🇺🇦.
With Minister @FedorovMykhailo we discussed today the defence needs to be financed.
We are ready to move fast and meet Ukraine’s expectations.
🇪🇺 will provide 90 bln EUR loan for 🇺🇦.
With Minister @FedorovMykhailo we discussed today the defence needs to be financed.
We are ready to move fast and meet Ukraine’s expectations.
February 11, 2026 at 3:21 PM
Ukraine is fighting the war of freedom. They are defending Europe.
🇪🇺 will provide 90 bln EUR loan for 🇺🇦.
With Minister @FedorovMykhailo we discussed today the defence needs to be financed.
We are ready to move fast and meet Ukraine’s expectations.
🇪🇺 will provide 90 bln EUR loan for 🇺🇦.
With Minister @FedorovMykhailo we discussed today the defence needs to be financed.
We are ready to move fast and meet Ukraine’s expectations.
Reposted by Paul Hünermund
#ZEW -Ökonomin & EFI-Vorsitzende @bertschek.bsky.social übergibt #EFI -Jahresgutachten an Kanzler Friedrich Merz & Forschungsministerin Dorothee Bär.
Fokus 2026: #HightechAgenda, #Sicherheitsforschung, europäische #Innovationspolitik, #Binnenmarkt, 28. Regime u.a.
Mehr 👉 www.zew.de/PM10350/?twt=1
Fokus 2026: #HightechAgenda, #Sicherheitsforschung, europäische #Innovationspolitik, #Binnenmarkt, 28. Regime u.a.
Mehr 👉 www.zew.de/PM10350/?twt=1
Pressemitteilung: EFI-Gutachten an Bundeskanzler übergeben
Prof. Dr. Irene Bertschek, Leiterin des Forschungsbereichs „Digitale Ökonomie“ am ZEW Mannheim, Vorsitzende der EFI-Kommission sowie Professorin an der Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen, sagt: „Das deu...
www.zew.de
February 11, 2026 at 1:18 PM
#ZEW -Ökonomin & EFI-Vorsitzende @bertschek.bsky.social übergibt #EFI -Jahresgutachten an Kanzler Friedrich Merz & Forschungsministerin Dorothee Bär.
Fokus 2026: #HightechAgenda, #Sicherheitsforschung, europäische #Innovationspolitik, #Binnenmarkt, 28. Regime u.a.
Mehr 👉 www.zew.de/PM10350/?twt=1
Fokus 2026: #HightechAgenda, #Sicherheitsforschung, europäische #Innovationspolitik, #Binnenmarkt, 28. Regime u.a.
Mehr 👉 www.zew.de/PM10350/?twt=1
Kant knew it better: causality is a fundamental, a priori category of human understanding.
February 11, 2026 at 3:53 PM
Kant knew it better: causality is a fundamental, a priori category of human understanding.
Good analysis. Deregulation and trade deals are certainly not the whole answer. Europe needs to finally strengthen domestic demand.
EU Leaders meet tomorrow to discuss measures to lift Europe's anaemic growth rate. But the summit risks turning into a nothing burger.
EU Leaders have cherry-picked a macroeconomically meaningless simplification agenda from the Draghi report
New oped.
1/
www.politico.eu/article/euro...
EU Leaders have cherry-picked a macroeconomically meaningless simplification agenda from the Draghi report
New oped.
1/
www.politico.eu/article/euro...
Europe is chasing the wrong fix for its growth crisis
The continent’s old growth model no longer works in today’s world. And EU leaders need a plan that matches the scale of this shift.
www.politico.eu
February 11, 2026 at 2:02 PM
Good analysis. Deregulation and trade deals are certainly not the whole answer. Europe needs to finally strengthen domestic demand.
Careful, don't anger that cat too much
February 11, 2026 at 1:55 PM
Careful, don't anger that cat too much
Eine sehr zutreffende Analyse!
February 11, 2026 at 1:53 PM
Eine sehr zutreffende Analyse!
Reposted by Paul Hünermund
Die Expertenkommission Forschung und Innovation hat heute ihr neues Gutachten 2026 dem Kanzler übergeben.
Empfehlung: lesenswert!
@bundestag.de
Link zum PDF:
www.e-fi.de/fileadmin/As...
Empfehlung: lesenswert!
@bundestag.de
Link zum PDF:
www.e-fi.de/fileadmin/As...
www.e-fi.de
February 11, 2026 at 12:59 PM
Die Expertenkommission Forschung und Innovation hat heute ihr neues Gutachten 2026 dem Kanzler übergeben.
Empfehlung: lesenswert!
@bundestag.de
Link zum PDF:
www.e-fi.de/fileadmin/As...
Empfehlung: lesenswert!
@bundestag.de
Link zum PDF:
www.e-fi.de/fileadmin/As...
People, amazing and so dumb at the same time
February 11, 2026 at 1:31 PM
People, amazing and so dumb at the same time
Reposted by Paul Hünermund
What If I Only Want to Rank Causal Effects?
Imagine we have a limited budget for a retention campaign and we can only target 100 out of our 1,000 customers.
Which customers should we pick?
1/
#CausalSky #EconSky #EpiSky #MLSky #StatSky
Imagine we have a limited budget for a retention campaign and we can only target 100 out of our 1,000 customers.
Which customers should we pick?
1/
#CausalSky #EconSky #EpiSky #MLSky #StatSky
February 11, 2026 at 9:29 AM
What If I Only Want to Rank Causal Effects?
Imagine we have a limited budget for a retention campaign and we can only target 100 out of our 1,000 customers.
Which customers should we pick?
1/
#CausalSky #EconSky #EpiSky #MLSky #StatSky
Imagine we have a limited budget for a retention campaign and we can only target 100 out of our 1,000 customers.
Which customers should we pick?
1/
#CausalSky #EconSky #EpiSky #MLSky #StatSky
Note that I'm making a correlational statement here 😉
February 11, 2026 at 9:32 AM
Note that I'm making a correlational statement here 😉
So many misconceptions about causality. You spend months carefully laying out assumptions and limitations in a serious causal analysis, only to have it shot down by reviewers with outdated and misconceived ideas. 😩
A variation: Scientists who claim they’re “not interested in causality” because they assume the term only applies to deterministic, law-like relationships that are unrealistic in their field. Instead, they’re interested in how “X drives Y”, the effects of X, the “extent to which X matters for Y”>
Some people confuse correlation and causation, some people confuse causation and “deterministic direct 1:1 causation” 🥲
February 11, 2026 at 9:29 AM
So many misconceptions about causality. You spend months carefully laying out assumptions and limitations in a serious causal analysis, only to have it shot down by reviewers with outdated and misconceived ideas. 😩
Reposted by Paul Hünermund
A variation: Scientists who claim they’re “not interested in causality” because they assume the term only applies to deterministic, law-like relationships that are unrealistic in their field. Instead, they’re interested in how “X drives Y”, the effects of X, the “extent to which X matters for Y”>
Some people confuse correlation and causation, some people confuse causation and “deterministic direct 1:1 causation” 🥲
February 11, 2026 at 6:54 AM
A variation: Scientists who claim they’re “not interested in causality” because they assume the term only applies to deterministic, law-like relationships that are unrealistic in their field. Instead, they’re interested in how “X drives Y”, the effects of X, the “extent to which X matters for Y”>
Reposted by Paul Hünermund
It is so embarrassing that it has taken nearly a decade for a British minister to say this, a statement of the absolute bloody obvious
February 11, 2026 at 7:40 AM
It is so embarrassing that it has taken nearly a decade for a British minister to say this, a statement of the absolute bloody obvious
I thought psychology and "mentally unwell" go hand in hand?
February 11, 2026 at 9:03 AM
I thought psychology and "mentally unwell" go hand in hand?
Reposted by Paul Hünermund
One of the biggest contributors to scientific scepticism among laypeople, IME, is these idiotic nutritional epi studies that come out with conflicting results every year and are uncritically picked up by credulous journos looking for clickbait. Get in the 🗑️.
#episky #statsky
#episky #statsky
You know that coffee & dementia study that's going around?
It's hogwash.
For starters, it's not pre-registered (that I could find), which means it may have been the product of a fishing expedition looking for dementia associations.
But even if it's not ...
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/09/h...
It's hogwash.
For starters, it's not pre-registered (that I could find), which means it may have been the product of a fishing expedition looking for dementia associations.
But even if it's not ...
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/09/h...
2 to 3 Cups of Coffee a Day May Reduce Dementia Risk. But Not if It’s Decaf.
www.nytimes.com
February 11, 2026 at 3:46 AM
Reposted by Paul Hünermund
2/12 There is a reason why Putin, Musk, Trump, Vance, Thiel, and Xi all spend fortunes to attack Brussels.
They do not hate the EU because it fails.
They hate it because of its potential.
Our unity is their nightmare
They do not hate the EU because it fails.
They hate it because of its potential.
Our unity is their nightmare
February 10, 2026 at 8:31 AM
2/12 There is a reason why Putin, Musk, Trump, Vance, Thiel, and Xi all spend fortunes to attack Brussels.
They do not hate the EU because it fails.
They hate it because of its potential.
Our unity is their nightmare
They do not hate the EU because it fails.
They hate it because of its potential.
Our unity is their nightmare
This was America's union jack dress moment
February 10, 2026 at 8:23 PM
This was America's union jack dress moment