Konstantin Bogatyrev
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bogatyrev.bsky.social
Konstantin Bogatyrev
@bogatyrev.bsky.social
2.9K followers 850 following 320 posts
- LSE Fellow in political behaviour at @lsegovernment.bsky.social‬
- PhD from Bocconi (2025) on electoral accountability for illiberals & authoritarians + quant methods
- 🏳️‍🌈 he/they
https://www.lse.ac.uk/government/people/academic-staff/konstantin-bogatyrev
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bogatyrev.bsky.social
Konstantin Bogatyrev @bogatyrev.bsky.social · Nov 22
Our paper just got accepted in the @thejop.bsky.social 🎉 and is now on the journal website: www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/... For me personally, it's a milestone: my first paper accepted after a peer review!
Reposted by Konstantin Bogatyrev
laurenleek.eu
My brother wanted a London pub crawl. The result? My new Substack post: "Britain Lost 14,000 Third Places. They were Called Pubs. Is Your Local Next?" How private equity reshaped the local, which pubs are most at risk and most importantly what to do about it.
open.substack.com/pub/laurenle...
Britain Lost 14,000 Third Places. They Were Called Pubs. Is Your Local Next?
How private equity reshaped the local and the postcode tool that shows the pubs most at risk.
open.substack.com
February 16, 2026 at 7:36 AM
Reposted by Konstantin Bogatyrev
dmk1793.bsky.social
I'm not sure I could ever forgive this government if it allows the BBC World Service to die
February 15, 2026 at 8:28 PM
Reposted by Konstantin Bogatyrev
astrezh.bsky.social
I keep coming back to @cdsamii.bsky.social essay on the “problem-centered” over “puzzle-centered” research paradigm and I can’t help but feel like so many problems with social science methods boil down to this cyrussamii.com?p=3682
The “problem solving” approach and social science methodology – Cyrus Samii
cyrussamii.com
February 14, 2026 at 8:02 PM
Reposted by Konstantin Bogatyrev
paulgp.com
Intrinsically, I think

a) thinking up good questions and
b) executing on them with good approaches is HARD.

I have not seen evidence that LLMs do this without prompting and guidance from a human agent.

But I have friends who disagree!
February 14, 2026 at 3:45 PM
Reposted by Konstantin Bogatyrev
cdsamii.bsky.social
Agreed re diminished value of job market papers. Presumably this shifts attention to quality of in-person presentation (demonstrated at conferences, workshops) and demonstrated ability to teach/convey deep insights.
filipecampante.bsky.social Filipe Campante @filipecampante.bsky.social · 2d
In my view, Claude Code has already inevitably diminished the value of things like job market papers as a signal of quality. It’s too easy to produce papers, and too hard for the typical grad student to produce the kind of paper that would allow for proper signaling. 5/
February 14, 2026 at 4:01 PM
bogatyrev.bsky.social
Today at 4pm GMT: @thchau.bsky.social is presenting "More than Tolerance" at the @lsegovernment.bsky.social Political Behaviour Seminar, organised together with @sarahobolt.bsky.social, @florianfoos.bsky.social & @mathiaspoertner.bsky.social. Join us in London or on Zoom!
More than Tolerance: Disentangling White Americans' Attitudes for Minority Cultural Maintenance Do votes for pro-assimilation policies reflect hostility toward minority cultures? While support for "English-only" laws is often interpreted as a desire to penalize minority traits, I argue these choices may instead reflect a positive preference for minority cultural maintenance and an even more positive preference over minorities acquiring dominant group traits. I provide a formal conceptual framework and test this using a pre-registered pilot survey containing a belief elicitation task and a discrete choice experiment (N=580 US non-Hispanic Whites). The aim is to disentangle policy choices from underlying cultural preferences and beliefs on policy efficacy. First, contrary to expectations of unalloyed hostility, respondents display a significant, positive willingness-to-pay (WTP) for maintaining student Spanish proficiency: a preference that holds even among Trump voters and supporters of restrictive language policies. Second, this support is structurally conditional: the WTP for Spanish drops significantly when minority proficiency threatens to exceed dominant language proficiency (a "kink" in preferences). The conditionality holds even among subgroups such as Harris voters and those who support bilingual policies. Finally, I show that policy choice is strongly predicted by instrumental beliefs: voters choose English Immersion not because they undervalue Spanish, but because they believe Bilingual Education fails to teach English. These findings suggest pro-assimilation policy choices among non-Hispanic White voters may not reflect a desire to penalize minority traits, but rather a stronger relative preference for dominant group traits and beliefs about policy constraints. I conclude with questions and possible directions for follow-ups.
February 12, 2026 at 2:41 PM
Reposted by Konstantin Bogatyrev
danbischof.bsky.social
🚨📄 New paper (conditional accepted at @thejop.bsky.social):

We test whether social desirability bias actually distorts answers in online surveys.

Short version:
It mostly doesn’t.

w. @timallinger.bsky.social @kristianvsf.bsky.social @morganlcj.bsky.social

URL: osf.io/preprints/os...
February 12, 2026 at 1:06 PM
Reposted by Konstantin Bogatyrev
ryancbriggs.net
It's ironic to see a discipline care **so much** about unbiasedness (causal inference!) at the level of a single test but then have a research production system and culture that is basically a ferocious bias generation machine. This is not good.
February 11, 2026 at 5:00 PM
Reposted by Konstantin Bogatyrev
ryancbriggs.net
I have a new paper. We look at ~all stats articles in political science post-2010 & show that 94% have abstracts that claim to reject a null. Only 2% present only null results. This is hard to explain unless the research process has a filter that only lets rejections through.
It must be very hard to publish null results Publication practices in the social sciences act as a filter that favors statistically significant results over null findings. While the problem of selection on significance (SoS) is well-known in theory, it has been difficult to measure its scope empirically, and it has been challenging to determine how selection varies across contexts. In this article, we use large language models to extract granular and validated data on about 100,000 articles published in over 150 political science journals from 2010 to 2024. We show that fewer than 2% of articles that rely on statistical methods report null-only findings in their abstracts, while over 90% of papers highlight significant results. To put these findings in perspective, we develop and calibrate a simple model of publication bias. Across a range of plausible assumptions, we find that statistically significant results are estimated to be one to two orders of magnitude more likely to enter the published record than null results. Leveraging metadata extracted from individual articles, we show that the pattern of strong SoS holds across subfields, journals, methods, and time periods. However, a few factors such as pre-registration and randomized experiments correlate with greater acceptance of null results. We conclude by discussing implications for the field and the potential of our new dataset for investigating other questions about political science.
February 11, 2026 at 5:00 PM
Reposted by Konstantin Bogatyrev
turnbulldugarte.com
New paper out in the @thejop.bsky.social with @rafaelahlskog.bsky.social & @grahn.bsky.social

Your neighbours shape your politics — but can living near people like *cause* higher turnout?

We studied 20,000+ queer individuals across the entire Swedish population to find out

doi.org/10.1086/740816
Rallied by thy neighbor: how minority spatial concentration increases voter turnout | The Journal of Politics: Vol 0, No ja
doi.org
February 11, 2026 at 9:13 AM
Reposted by Konstantin Bogatyrev
owenwntr.bsky.social
Keir Starmer is the most unpopular British prime minister since records began: the sick man who cannot afford to catch a cold. That's why the Mandelson scandal has been so destabilising www.economist.com/britain/2026...
February 9, 2026 at 9:43 PM
Reposted by Konstantin Bogatyrev
tderyugina.bsky.social
#EconSky: Tymofiy Mylovanov from the Kyiv School of Economics is a simply a hero.

While Trump is busy allying with Putin, Tymofiy is out in the cold working for his students and his country.

I will match all donations to KSE, up to $1K total (link below).

www.youtube.com/shorts/RgDXI...
Update from KSE
YouTube video by Tymofiy Mylovanov
www.youtube.com
February 6, 2026 at 2:00 AM
Reposted by Konstantin Bogatyrev
luqmanabuelfoul.bsky.social
Join us in-person or via Zoom on Wednesdays for this term's edition of the @lsegovernment.bsky.social Contentious Politics Workshop! Topics to be covered include mobilisation, democratisation, protest exposure, and more. DM for Zoom links and our mailing list!
January 20, 2026 at 5:19 PM
bogatyrev.bsky.social
Today at 4pm GMT: Elisa Wirsching (@lsegovernment.bsky.social) is presenting "The Political Consequences of Police Slowdowns" at our Political Behaviour Seminar, organised together with @sarahobolt.bsky.social, @florianfoos.bsky.social &
@mathiaspoertner.bsky.social. Join us in London or on Zoom!
February 5, 2026 at 12:47 PM
Reposted by Konstantin Bogatyrev
p-hunermund.com
Staggered difference-in-differences analyses with country-or state-level data don't seem to be a good idea. Also firm-level analyses require decent sample sizes. 👇
fhollenbach.org Florian Hollenbach @fhollenbach.org · 13d
🧵 New version of our paper (@bcegerod.bsky.social) is finally online: "How Many is Enough? Sample Size in Staggered Difference-in-Differences Designs"
We show that even well-identified DiD studies are often underpowered; sample sizes needed are surprisingly large
Paper: osf.io/preprints/os... 1/6
February 3, 2026 at 2:57 PM
Reposted by Konstantin Bogatyrev
lsects.bsky.social
📢 CFP: 6th LSE–Cambridge Workshop on the Political Economy of Türkiye | Cambridge, 9–10 Jul 2026.
🎤 Keynote: Melani Cammett
✨ No fee, accommodation for invited speakers, limited travel grants
⏰ Deadline: 1 Mar 2026
#CFP #PoliticalEconomy #Türkiye
February 3, 2026 at 11:20 AM
Reposted by Konstantin Bogatyrev
catherinedevries.bsky.social
After a short hiatus, Respect the Marble is back:

catherineeunicedevries.substack.com/p/introducin...

Introducing a new series The Long Carve:

about how to decide which ideas deserves our long-term writing attention,

& how we learn to keep writing when the outcome is unknown and uncertain.

🧵
Introducing The Long Carve: What Deserves Your Four Thousand Weeks?
A series about choosing and staying with one idea long enough for it to change you
catherineeunicedevries.substack.com
February 3, 2026 at 10:47 AM
Reposted by Konstantin Bogatyrev
miguelpereira.bsky.social
PEEP is back this year🤌 ! The 4th Political Economy of Europe APSA Pre-Conference will be hosted at Harvard on Sept 2, the day before APSA.

We welcome observational, experimental and formal theory work focused on Europe. Deadline: March 1st.

forms.gle/V6NEy4AfnSs7...
PEEP 2026 - Submission
Please complete this form if you would like to attend the 2026 Political Economy of Europe APSA Pre-Conference. The pre-conference will be held on Wednesday September 2, 2026 (the day before APSA) at ...
forms.gle
January 30, 2026 at 12:01 PM
Reposted by Konstantin Bogatyrev
ygursoy.bsky.social
🚨6th LSE-Cambridge Workshop on Political Economy of Türkiye🚨
CALL FOR PAPERS
9-10 July 2026, Cambridge, UK
Submission deadline: 1 March 2026
lse.ac.uk/contemporary...
@lse-ei.bsky.social @lsects.bsky.social @orkunsaka.bsky.social
February 1, 2026 at 12:45 PM
Reposted by Konstantin Bogatyrev
rfrbrghs.bsky.social
#DemocraticBacksliding: The erosion of US democracy under Trump is steeper than any recent precedent, including Hungary, Venezuela, Turkey, R//ZZ.l'a/nd

Source: Financial Times @jburnmurdoch.ft.com www.ft.com/content/b474...
January 31, 2026 at 10:53 AM
Reposted by Konstantin Bogatyrev
fabioangiolillo.bsky.social
🚨 Deadline is tomorrow! 🚨

Submit your abstract for the 4th APSG Conference in London 15-16 June here: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...
January 31, 2026 at 11:18 AM
Reposted by Konstantin Bogatyrev
miguelpereira.bsky.social
Job 🚨: The European Institute (@lse-ei.bsky.social) at LSE is hiring an assistant prof in International Migration. I'm not in the hiring committee but happy to answer Qs about the department, LSE or this bloody weather that is actually pretty pretty today.

jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
Assistant Professor in International Migration
Assistant Professor in International Migration, , <p style="text-align: center;"><em><span>LSE is committed to building a diverse, equitable and truly inclusive university</span></em></p> <p style="te...
jobs.lse.ac.uk
January 30, 2026 at 10:57 AM
Reposted by Konstantin Bogatyrev
haasvioleta.bsky.social
Had a great time teaching a guest lecture on LLMs in Social Science Research with an applied example on text classification at @heikekluever.bsky.social seminar today! Thanks for the invite 💫

If you’re interested, you can check out the materials in my GitHub repo: github.com/violeta-haas...
GitHub - violeta-haas/Intro-LLMs-in-Soical-Science-Research
Contribute to violeta-haas/Intro-LLMs-in-Soical-Science-Research development by creating an account on GitHub.
github.com
January 28, 2026 at 2:23 PM
Reposted by Konstantin Bogatyrev
florianfoos.bsky.social
Excited about chairing @bogatyrev.bsky.social in the @lsegovernment.bsky.social Political Behaviour Seminar at 4pm today. Konstantin will present his paper "Shifting Ground". Come along if you are in London, or join us on Zoom: www.lse.ac.uk/government/r...
January 29, 2026 at 11:12 AM
Reposted by Konstantin Bogatyrev
mathiaspoertner.bsky.social
Excited to welcome Kenneth F. Greene at the LSE Latin American Politics Seminar series today *12:00 - 1:30 pm UK time* (in-person and online). He will present parts of his new book “Against the Machine: Why Party Competition Disrupts Vote Buying” @lsegovernment.bsky.social
January 29, 2026 at 10:23 AM