Andrei Sterescu
@andreisterescu.bsky.social
Economist @ec.europa.eu ECFIN | Formerly @ecb.europa.eu | European 🇪🇺 and International Economic Policy | Views are my own and do not represent those of my employer
Substack: https://open.substack.com/pub/outsample
Substack: https://open.substack.com/pub/outsample
Pinned
I made a list of academics, policy analysts, and journalists that I regularly follow who post on EU affairs, politics, and economics.
bsky.app/profile/did:...
bsky.app/profile/did:...
Reposted by Andrei Sterescu
The argument made by @mcopelov.bsky.social is right. The global dollar system is a coordination equilibrium with very few viable substitutes, and because the day-to-day machinery still works even when the institutional foundations are eroding.
substack.com/home/post/p-...
substack.com/home/post/p-...
Fed Independence, Dollar Dominance, and Mispricing US Institutional Risk
Markets price the resilience of the dollar-based global financial system, while discounting institutional erosion at home and a foreign policy that tests alliances and the rules-based order.
substack.com
January 12, 2026 at 1:20 PM
The argument made by @mcopelov.bsky.social is right. The global dollar system is a coordination equilibrium with very few viable substitutes, and because the day-to-day machinery still works even when the institutional foundations are eroding.
substack.com/home/post/p-...
substack.com/home/post/p-...
Reposted by Andrei Sterescu
Carney easily gave the strongest speech at Davos. I genuinely did not expect that level of honesty about what the Western led international order really was and that, for all its faults and strengths, it is not coming back.
Carney: "American hegemony in particular helped provide public goods, a stable financial system... this bargain no longer works. Let me be direct. We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition... recently, great powers have begun using economic integration as a weapon. Tariffs as leverage ... "
January 21, 2026 at 8:01 AM
Carney easily gave the strongest speech at Davos. I genuinely did not expect that level of honesty about what the Western led international order really was and that, for all its faults and strengths, it is not coming back.
Carney easily gave the strongest speech at Davos. I genuinely did not expect that level of honesty about what the Western led international order really was and that, for all its faults and strengths, it is not coming back.
Carney: "American hegemony in particular helped provide public goods, a stable financial system... this bargain no longer works. Let me be direct. We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition... recently, great powers have begun using economic integration as a weapon. Tariffs as leverage ... "
January 21, 2026 at 8:01 AM
Carney easily gave the strongest speech at Davos. I genuinely did not expect that level of honesty about what the Western led international order really was and that, for all its faults and strengths, it is not coming back.
Reposted by Andrei Sterescu
Financial war in response to trade war and territorial threats? More and more people appear to be calling for it. So I updated my post on U.S. Treasuries holdings—now with the latest data.
benjaminbraun.org/posts/treasu...
benjaminbraun.org/posts/treasu...
January 19, 2026 at 6:40 PM
Financial war in response to trade war and territorial threats? More and more people appear to be calling for it. So I updated my post on U.S. Treasuries holdings—now with the latest data.
benjaminbraun.org/posts/treasu...
benjaminbraun.org/posts/treasu...
Reposted by Andrei Sterescu
Full 2025 Chinese trade data now out. Headline is clearly a historical global record $1.2 trillion surplus with the world
What of Europe?
📈China's trade surplus with the EU: +18.1%
📈 with Germany: +108%
📈 with France: +23.9%
📈 with Italy: +32.6%
📈 with Netherlands: +1.4%
What of Europe?
📈China's trade surplus with the EU: +18.1%
📈 with Germany: +108%
📈 with France: +23.9%
📈 with Italy: +32.6%
📈 with Netherlands: +1.4%
January 14, 2026 at 6:12 AM
Full 2025 Chinese trade data now out. Headline is clearly a historical global record $1.2 trillion surplus with the world
What of Europe?
📈China's trade surplus with the EU: +18.1%
📈 with Germany: +108%
📈 with France: +23.9%
📈 with Italy: +32.6%
📈 with Netherlands: +1.4%
What of Europe?
📈China's trade surplus with the EU: +18.1%
📈 with Germany: +108%
📈 with France: +23.9%
📈 with Italy: +32.6%
📈 with Netherlands: +1.4%
Reposted by Andrei Sterescu
Europe Is Stronger Than Its Leaders Think
My latest for @projectsyndicate.bsky.social to counter the dominant narrative of a weak EU doomed to fail
prosyn.org/nsSlUOT
My latest for @projectsyndicate.bsky.social to counter the dominant narrative of a weak EU doomed to fail
prosyn.org/nsSlUOT
Europe Is Stronger Than Its Leaders Think
Alberto Alemanno warns policymakers against panic-driven reforms that threaten to undo hard-won gains.
prosyn.org
January 13, 2026 at 9:10 PM
Europe Is Stronger Than Its Leaders Think
My latest for @projectsyndicate.bsky.social to counter the dominant narrative of a weak EU doomed to fail
prosyn.org/nsSlUOT
My latest for @projectsyndicate.bsky.social to counter the dominant narrative of a weak EU doomed to fail
prosyn.org/nsSlUOT
Reposted by Andrei Sterescu
still my heart - REPO IS VERY SYSTEMIC piece @alphaville.ft.com
1. We still have no granular data, a full 17 years since run on repo blew up Lehman into a global financial crisis. The OFR now has data on US repo, but European repo is also USD 12 trillion (roughly)
www.ft.com/content/220d...
1. We still have no granular data, a full 17 years since run on repo blew up Lehman into a global financial crisis. The OFR now has data on US repo, but European repo is also USD 12 trillion (roughly)
www.ft.com/content/220d...
Repo is even bigger than we thought
A taxonomy of the engorged and utterly systemic US repurchase market
www.ft.com
January 13, 2026 at 5:24 PM
still my heart - REPO IS VERY SYSTEMIC piece @alphaville.ft.com
1. We still have no granular data, a full 17 years since run on repo blew up Lehman into a global financial crisis. The OFR now has data on US repo, but European repo is also USD 12 trillion (roughly)
www.ft.com/content/220d...
1. We still have no granular data, a full 17 years since run on repo blew up Lehman into a global financial crisis. The OFR now has data on US repo, but European repo is also USD 12 trillion (roughly)
www.ft.com/content/220d...
Reposted by Andrei Sterescu
Re. #2, from @andreisterescu.bsky.social: "The dollar system is sustained by path dependency and network effects, the US lingering role as lender of last resort, and by the lack of close substitutes at scale. That equilibrium can be surprisingly resilient in the face of political deterioration..."
Fed Independence, Dollar Dominance, and Mispricing US Institutional Risk
Markets price the resilience of the dollar-based global financial system, while discounting institutional erosion at home and a foreign policy that tests alliances and the rules-based order.
outsample.substack.com
January 12, 2026 at 6:28 PM
Re. #2, from @andreisterescu.bsky.social: "The dollar system is sustained by path dependency and network effects, the US lingering role as lender of last resort, and by the lack of close substitutes at scale. That equilibrium can be surprisingly resilient in the face of political deterioration..."
Reposted by Andrei Sterescu
International central bankers having to issue a joint statement defending Powell is (another) flashing red warning light about what’s happening in the US. The independence of the world’s most powerful central bank is being threatened by the Trump administration.
www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/dat...
www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/dat...
January 13, 2026 at 11:51 AM
International central bankers having to issue a joint statement defending Powell is (another) flashing red warning light about what’s happening in the US. The independence of the world’s most powerful central bank is being threatened by the Trump administration.
www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/dat...
www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/dat...
International central bankers having to issue a joint statement defending Powell is (another) flashing red warning light about what’s happening in the US. The independence of the world’s most powerful central bank is being threatened by the Trump administration.
www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/dat...
www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/dat...
January 13, 2026 at 11:51 AM
International central bankers having to issue a joint statement defending Powell is (another) flashing red warning light about what’s happening in the US. The independence of the world’s most powerful central bank is being threatened by the Trump administration.
www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/dat...
www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/dat...
Reposted by Andrei Sterescu
This is an excellent summary of the path dependency, substitution problem, domestic supermajority of 🇺🇸 asset ownership, & future uncertainty. The only thing I'd add is that the total lack of mention of, say, 🇨🇳 or 🇯🇵 further illustrates the point. There simply aren't any viable alternatives in sight.
January 12, 2026 at 6:16 PM
This is an excellent summary of the path dependency, substitution problem, domestic supermajority of 🇺🇸 asset ownership, & future uncertainty. The only thing I'd add is that the total lack of mention of, say, 🇨🇳 or 🇯🇵 further illustrates the point. There simply aren't any viable alternatives in sight.
What explains the rather muted market response and continued trust in the global dollar system in the face of unprecedented pressure on Fed independence, domestic institutions weakening, and a foreign policy that tests alliances and the rules-based order? I wrote a longer Substack about this.
My deeply unpopular counterpoint to this is that it is entirely possible for the domestic & geopolitical impacts of 👇 to be No Good And Very (Very Very) Bad <and> for structural features of the global financial system (TINA on the dollar, USTs, & safe assets in general) to be structural & enduring.
The relatively muted market reaction so far to Trump’s attack on Venezuela, his threats to invade Greenland, and now a significant escalation in his assault on central bank independence suggests that markets are not, at least yet, pricing in these risks properly.
January 12, 2026 at 1:20 PM
What explains the rather muted market response and continued trust in the global dollar system in the face of unprecedented pressure on Fed independence, domestic institutions weakening, and a foreign policy that tests alliances and the rules-based order? I wrote a longer Substack about this.
Reposted by Andrei Sterescu
70 economists, including Thomas Piketty and 2 former central bank governors warn that Europe must launch a digital euro to resist "deepening US control" of money.
A public digital euro must be accessible, private, and work online and offline to serve society 👍
www.ft.com/content/b060...
A public digital euro must be accessible, private, and work online and offline to serve society 👍
www.ft.com/content/b060...
Digital euro ‘only defence’ against deepening US control of money, economists warn
Academics including France’s Thomas Piketty press MEPs to resist ‘shortsighted’ lobbying against the project
www.ft.com
January 12, 2026 at 11:02 AM
70 economists, including Thomas Piketty and 2 former central bank governors warn that Europe must launch a digital euro to resist "deepening US control" of money.
A public digital euro must be accessible, private, and work online and offline to serve society 👍
www.ft.com/content/b060...
A public digital euro must be accessible, private, and work online and offline to serve society 👍
www.ft.com/content/b060...
The relatively muted market reaction so far to Trump’s attack on Venezuela, his threats to invade Greenland, and now a significant escalation in his assault on central bank independence suggests that markets are not, at least yet, pricing in these risks properly.
US prosecutors investigate Jay Powell over revamp of Fed headquarters ft.trib.al/Ici2QmM
US prosecutors investigate Jay Powell over revamp of Fed headquarters
Central bank chair said probe is retaliation for refusal to bow to Trump’s demand for interest rate cuts
ft.trib.al
January 12, 2026 at 5:40 AM
The relatively muted market reaction so far to Trump’s attack on Venezuela, his threats to invade Greenland, and now a significant escalation in his assault on central bank independence suggests that markets are not, at least yet, pricing in these risks properly.
Trump was already poised to replace Jerome Powell within months, as Powell’s term expires. So this is 1) petty retaliation against a Fed chair seen as insufficiently compliant, and 2) an attempt to intimidate the whole FOMC to lower interest rates under the threat investigatory pressure.
Video message from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=KckG...
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=KckG...
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
Statement by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell
YouTube video by Federal Reserve
www.youtube.com
January 12, 2026 at 4:48 AM
Trump was already poised to replace Jerome Powell within months, as Powell’s term expires. So this is 1) petty retaliation against a Fed chair seen as insufficiently compliant, and 2) an attempt to intimidate the whole FOMC to lower interest rates under the threat investigatory pressure.
I have launched a Substack page where I plan to write about developments in the global economy, often from a EU perspective; mostly short notes and occasional deeper pieces on international and European economic policy and current affairs. Have a look!
open.substack.com/pub/outsampl...
open.substack.com/pub/outsampl...
Out of Sample | Andrei Sterescu | Substack
Out of Sample is a running set of notes and data-driven analyses on international and European economic policy and current affairs, aimed at making sense of a shifting global economy. Click to read Ou...
open.substack.com
January 9, 2026 at 6:01 AM
I have launched a Substack page where I plan to write about developments in the global economy, often from a EU perspective; mostly short notes and occasional deeper pieces on international and European economic policy and current affairs. Have a look!
open.substack.com/pub/outsampl...
open.substack.com/pub/outsampl...
The Trump administration has been escalating talk about Greenland, including that US military force is “always an option”. But why threaten annexation or force if the US already has a base, already has agreements, and could likely get more access by negotiation?
open.substack.com/pub/outsampl...
open.substack.com/pub/outsampl...
Europe Should Call Trump's Bluff. Greenland Through a Simple Crisis Bargaining Model.
Washington is gambling on European weakness. Europe can win by forcing the US to face the costs of its threats.
open.substack.com
January 9, 2026 at 4:54 AM
The Trump administration has been escalating talk about Greenland, including that US military force is “always an option”. But why threaten annexation or force if the US already has a base, already has agreements, and could likely get more access by negotiation?
open.substack.com/pub/outsampl...
open.substack.com/pub/outsampl...
The FT editorial board argues that Europe should respond to Trump’s Greenland threats by standing firmly with Denmark and pairing diplomacy with credible leverage, rather than relying on appeals to international law alone or Trump’s ego.
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
How Europe should respond to Trump’s Greenland threats
US move on the island would be a breach of the transatlantic alliance
giftarticle.ft.com
January 7, 2026 at 6:22 PM
The FT editorial board argues that Europe should respond to Trump’s Greenland threats by standing firmly with Denmark and pairing diplomacy with credible leverage, rather than relying on appeals to international law alone or Trump’s ego.
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Reposted by Andrei Sterescu
1/Leaders are abducted/allies are threatened but pundits and governments are scratching their heads on what the US is doing. Danish PM on Greenland "It makes absolutely no sense". Why? Because actors using old IR models when we need a new lens. Enter neo-royalism.
abcnews.go.com/Internationa...
abcnews.go.com/Internationa...
Denmark's PM urges Trump to 'stop the threats' of annexing Greenland
The prime minister of Denmark called on Trump to “stop the threats” of the U.S. annexing Greenland after renewed comments garnered international attention.
abcnews.go.com
January 5, 2026 at 1:24 PM
1/Leaders are abducted/allies are threatened but pundits and governments are scratching their heads on what the US is doing. Danish PM on Greenland "It makes absolutely no sense". Why? Because actors using old IR models when we need a new lens. Enter neo-royalism.
abcnews.go.com/Internationa...
abcnews.go.com/Internationa...
I’ve launched a Substack page called Out of Sample. It’s going to be running set of notes and data-driven analyses on international and European economic policy, macro, and current affairs. Mostly briefs and occasional deep dives. Link in bio.
open.substack.com/pub/outsampl...
open.substack.com/pub/outsampl...
The Case for Cooperative Rebalancing. Thoughts on Chinese Overcapacity, US Protectionism, and the EU’s Trade Squeeze
Europe is being squeezed between US tariff walls and China’s export machine. The only durable response is cooperative rebalancing, not a trade war.
open.substack.com
January 5, 2026 at 4:26 PM
I’ve launched a Substack page called Out of Sample. It’s going to be running set of notes and data-driven analyses on international and European economic policy, macro, and current affairs. Mostly briefs and occasional deep dives. Link in bio.
open.substack.com/pub/outsampl...
open.substack.com/pub/outsampl...
Reposted by Andrei Sterescu
NEW🚨 Europe is successfully building up battery and EV manufacturing capacity. Since 2017, companies have invested €38 billion in battery manufacturing facilities and €34 billion in EVs facilities.
You can navigate our European Clean Tech Tracker here:
european-clean-tech-tracker.bruegel.org
You can navigate our European Clean Tech Tracker here:
european-clean-tech-tracker.bruegel.org
December 17, 2025 at 10:54 AM
NEW🚨 Europe is successfully building up battery and EV manufacturing capacity. Since 2017, companies have invested €38 billion in battery manufacturing facilities and €34 billion in EVs facilities.
You can navigate our European Clean Tech Tracker here:
european-clean-tech-tracker.bruegel.org
You can navigate our European Clean Tech Tracker here:
european-clean-tech-tracker.bruegel.org
Reposted by Andrei Sterescu
The argument is that Europe underperforms in tech and biotech because it is “too expensive” to fire people.That may sound intuitively appealing but it is profoundly misleading.
Europe won’t innovate more by firing people faster
The argument is that Europe underperforms in tech and biotech because it is “too expensive” to fire people.That may sound intuitively appealing but it is profoundly misleading.
euobserver.com
December 17, 2025 at 10:03 AM
The argument is that Europe underperforms in tech and biotech because it is “too expensive” to fire people.That may sound intuitively appealing but it is profoundly misleading.
Reposted by Andrei Sterescu
Great to see our idea to extend climate-based buy European conditionality extended to corporate car subsidies.
It covers about 60% of the EU market and is a key lever to respond to the China shock.
And given that the EU is revising its corporate car directive soon, it was an obvious move.
1/
It covers about 60% of the EU market and is a key lever to respond to the China shock.
And given that the EU is revising its corporate car directive soon, it was an obvious move.
1/
Lots to criticise in yesterday’s cars package - but one point deserves credit.
The COM plans to limit support for corporate cars to EVs and tie it to European preferences. Exactly what @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social, @sandertordoir.bsky.social, and I called for and a genuinely meaningful step forward
The COM plans to limit support for corporate cars to EVs and tie it to European preferences. Exactly what @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social, @sandertordoir.bsky.social, and I called for and a genuinely meaningful step forward
December 17, 2025 at 4:09 PM
Great to see our idea to extend climate-based buy European conditionality extended to corporate car subsidies.
It covers about 60% of the EU market and is a key lever to respond to the China shock.
And given that the EU is revising its corporate car directive soon, it was an obvious move.
1/
It covers about 60% of the EU market and is a key lever to respond to the China shock.
And given that the EU is revising its corporate car directive soon, it was an obvious move.
1/
Reposted by Andrei Sterescu
It has become received wisdom in Brussels and Washington that there is a new “euro-sclerosis”: that the EU economy is lagging the US
This view is wrong
A little primer on the measurement of productivity – and why reports of the economic death of Europe are greatly exaggerated🧵
This view is wrong
A little primer on the measurement of productivity – and why reports of the economic death of Europe are greatly exaggerated🧵
December 12, 2025 at 12:32 PM
It has become received wisdom in Brussels and Washington that there is a new “euro-sclerosis”: that the EU economy is lagging the US
This view is wrong
A little primer on the measurement of productivity – and why reports of the economic death of Europe are greatly exaggerated🧵
This view is wrong
A little primer on the measurement of productivity – and why reports of the economic death of Europe are greatly exaggerated🧵
Reposted by Andrei Sterescu
Two European officials said that the frozen assets section of the Ukraine peace agreement was one of the most alarming since it implies authority over assets that are mostly immobilised in European institutions.
One said it was almost as if the text had been drawn up as “a deliberate provocation”.
One said it was almost as if the text had been drawn up as “a deliberate provocation”.
Trump’s grab for Russian frozen assets puts EU Ukraine loan in doubt on.ft.com/3LXpzSY
Trump’s grab for Russian frozen assets puts EU Ukraine loan in doubt
Brussels blindsided by US plan for joint investment funds with Moscow and Kyiv
on.ft.com
November 21, 2025 at 4:23 PM
Two European officials said that the frozen assets section of the Ukraine peace agreement was one of the most alarming since it implies authority over assets that are mostly immobilised in European institutions.
One said it was almost as if the text had been drawn up as “a deliberate provocation”.
One said it was almost as if the text had been drawn up as “a deliberate provocation”.