Andrei Sterescu
@andreisterescu.bsky.social
Economist @ec.europa.eu ECFIN | Formerly @ecb.europa.eu | European 🇪🇺 and International Economic Policy | Views are my own and do not represent those of my employer
Pinned
I made a list of academics, policy analysts, and journalists that I regularly follow who post on EU affairs, politics, and economics.
bsky.app/profile/did:...
bsky.app/profile/did:...
Reposted by Andrei Sterescu
On 26 October, US and Malaysia signed a legally binding so-called Agreement on Reciprocal Trade, which is not a broad FTA but a package on tariffs and general rules with an unusually muscular Economic and National Security chapter. A thread 🧵 on #geoeconomics
October 28, 2025 at 12:16 PM
On 26 October, US and Malaysia signed a legally binding so-called Agreement on Reciprocal Trade, which is not a broad FTA but a package on tariffs and general rules with an unusually muscular Economic and National Security chapter. A thread 🧵 on #geoeconomics
On 26 October, US and Malaysia signed a legally binding so-called Agreement on Reciprocal Trade, which is not a broad FTA but a package on tariffs and general rules with an unusually muscular Economic and National Security chapter. A thread 🧵 on #geoeconomics
October 28, 2025 at 12:16 PM
On 26 October, US and Malaysia signed a legally binding so-called Agreement on Reciprocal Trade, which is not a broad FTA but a package on tariffs and general rules with an unusually muscular Economic and National Security chapter. A thread 🧵 on #geoeconomics
Reposted by Andrei Sterescu
3. Delgado-Vega, Álvaro, and @bartonelee2.bsky.social. 2024. ‘When Growth Leads to Zero-Sum Conflict’. t.co/MjBZ9BUCI3
September 28, 2025 at 2:16 PM
3. Delgado-Vega, Álvaro, and @bartonelee2.bsky.social. 2024. ‘When Growth Leads to Zero-Sum Conflict’. t.co/MjBZ9BUCI3
Reposted by Andrei Sterescu
1/This is Transatlantic leadership! In historic move, German Chancellor Merz calls out US: “democracy is under pressure, freedom of expression is being questioned, and the independence of the judiciary is being repressed“.
www.reuters.com/technology/g...
www.reuters.com/technology/g...
Germany's Merz criticises US' fundamental shift from following rules
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz criticised the United States on Friday for no longer following the rules, part of what he called a fundamental shift in Europe's transatlantic partner.
www.reuters.com
September 27, 2025 at 12:06 PM
1/This is Transatlantic leadership! In historic move, German Chancellor Merz calls out US: “democracy is under pressure, freedom of expression is being questioned, and the independence of the judiciary is being repressed“.
www.reuters.com/technology/g...
www.reuters.com/technology/g...
A new IMF study shows trade surpluses tend to raise incomes in surplus countries and lower them in deficit countries.
doi.org/10.5089/9798...
doi.org/10.5089/9798...
September 28, 2025 at 10:55 AM
A new IMF study shows trade surpluses tend to raise incomes in surplus countries and lower them in deficit countries.
doi.org/10.5089/9798...
doi.org/10.5089/9798...
Reposted by Andrei Sterescu
🇫🇷's debt/GDP ratio is not "soaring." It is than in 2020, & it's borrowing costs are lower than in 2023.
I know that The Narrative™️ cannot fail & everyone has their own political preferences over arbitrary debt levels (bsky.app/profile/mcop...), but don't print lies in the newspapers, etc.
I know that The Narrative™️ cannot fail & everyone has their own political preferences over arbitrary debt levels (bsky.app/profile/mcop...), but don't print lies in the newspapers, etc.
September 9, 2025 at 4:35 AM
🇫🇷's debt/GDP ratio is not "soaring." It is than in 2020, & it's borrowing costs are lower than in 2023.
I know that The Narrative™️ cannot fail & everyone has their own political preferences over arbitrary debt levels (bsky.app/profile/mcop...), but don't print lies in the newspapers, etc.
I know that The Narrative™️ cannot fail & everyone has their own political preferences over arbitrary debt levels (bsky.app/profile/mcop...), but don't print lies in the newspapers, etc.
Reposted by Andrei Sterescu
For a (healthy?) dose of Euro-pessism, here is an interesting look by @codendahl.bsky.social on the economic policies of the far/hard right and what their increasing access to power might mean for Europe:
The hard right’s plans for Europe’s economy
It has moderated, but offers little hope of growth-boosting reform
www.economist.com
September 9, 2025 at 9:04 AM
For a (healthy?) dose of Euro-pessism, here is an interesting look by @codendahl.bsky.social on the economic policies of the far/hard right and what their increasing access to power might mean for Europe:
Reposted by Andrei Sterescu
The EU's strategic foresight report 2025 is out and it rings the bell for a "change in the global order"
"We're witnessing the erosion of the rules-based international order & fracturing of the global landscape... a return to the previous status quo seems increasingly unlikely"
"We're witnessing the erosion of the rules-based international order & fracturing of the global landscape... a return to the previous status quo seems increasingly unlikely"
September 9, 2025 at 2:07 PM
The EU's strategic foresight report 2025 is out and it rings the bell for a "change in the global order"
"We're witnessing the erosion of the rules-based international order & fracturing of the global landscape... a return to the previous status quo seems increasingly unlikely"
"We're witnessing the erosion of the rules-based international order & fracturing of the global landscape... a return to the previous status quo seems increasingly unlikely"
Reposted by Andrei Sterescu
Not sure that some in Germany understood that more issuance of their own would imply more market discipline on France.
Not sure some in France fully realised that Germany's big fiscal experiment also has sharp downsides for them.
Not sure some in France fully realised that Germany's big fiscal experiment also has sharp downsides for them.
Scenario on.
Part of France’s fiscal woes: more German bund supply potentially means less OAT demand: investors often bought the latter to get core eurozone exposure — bunds were scarce.
Not as scarce anymore going forward as Germany issues more debt.
Profligate Germany disciplines France.
Part of France’s fiscal woes: more German bund supply potentially means less OAT demand: investors often bought the latter to get core eurozone exposure — bunds were scarce.
Not as scarce anymore going forward as Germany issues more debt.
Profligate Germany disciplines France.
September 2, 2025 at 11:21 AM
Not sure that some in Germany understood that more issuance of their own would imply more market discipline on France.
Not sure some in France fully realised that Germany's big fiscal experiment also has sharp downsides for them.
Not sure some in France fully realised that Germany's big fiscal experiment also has sharp downsides for them.
Reposted by Andrei Sterescu
1/2
FT: "Developing countries are moving out of dollar debts and turning to currencies with rock bottom interest rates such as the Chinese renminbi and Swiss franc."
www.ft.com/content/36f8...
FT: "Developing countries are moving out of dollar debts and turning to currencies with rock bottom interest rates such as the Chinese renminbi and Swiss franc."
www.ft.com/content/36f8...
Developing countries swap out of dollar debt to cut borrowing costs
Sovereign borrowers are turning to lower interest rates in currencies such as the Chinese renminbi and Swiss franc
www.ft.com
September 2, 2025 at 8:45 AM
1/2
FT: "Developing countries are moving out of dollar debts and turning to currencies with rock bottom interest rates such as the Chinese renminbi and Swiss franc."
www.ft.com/content/36f8...
FT: "Developing countries are moving out of dollar debts and turning to currencies with rock bottom interest rates such as the Chinese renminbi and Swiss franc."
www.ft.com/content/36f8...
Reposted by Andrei Sterescu
German households hold €3.4 trillion in cash and low-interest bank deposits.
www.ft.com/content/f1cb...
www.ft.com/content/f1cb...
Germany’s pensions crisis: can €10 a month change how people invest?
Europe’s largest economy offers the young a subsidy to invest in equities as public retirement scheme creaks
www.ft.com
August 25, 2025 at 12:30 PM
German households hold €3.4 trillion in cash and low-interest bank deposits.
www.ft.com/content/f1cb...
www.ft.com/content/f1cb...
Does fiscal policy deliver more growth and convergence when it is financed and coordinated at the EU level, as opposed to being paid for and run nationally?
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Fiscal federalism and Cohesion Policy in the European Union NUTS-2 regions
We contribute to the debate on the implementation of fiscal policy in a supranational federation by examining the role of financing mechanisms and int…
www.sciencedirect.com
August 19, 2025 at 12:02 PM
Does fiscal policy deliver more growth and convergence when it is financed and coordinated at the EU level, as opposed to being paid for and run nationally?
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Reposted by Andrei Sterescu
Germany inscribed austerity in its constitution. The “debt brake” is so rigid that The Economist has called it an instrument of “self harm”. Reform is overdue.
I’m honored to be appointed by the Finance Ministry to serve on the expert commission in charge of fiscal rules.
I’m honored to be appointed by the Finance Ministry to serve on the expert commission in charge of fiscal rules.
August 8, 2025 at 8:58 AM
Germany inscribed austerity in its constitution. The “debt brake” is so rigid that The Economist has called it an instrument of “self harm”. Reform is overdue.
I’m honored to be appointed by the Finance Ministry to serve on the expert commission in charge of fiscal rules.
I’m honored to be appointed by the Finance Ministry to serve on the expert commission in charge of fiscal rules.
Reposted by Andrei Sterescu
Europe negotiated the EU-US deal from weakness—and it shows.
The 15% tariff was already the de facto rate for the past few months (10% Liberation Day tariffs + ~5% MFN). It beats 25% on key sectors.
But locking it in permanently? What was unthinkable a year ago is now the new baseline.
1/
The 15% tariff was already the de facto rate for the past few months (10% Liberation Day tariffs + ~5% MFN). It beats 25% on key sectors.
But locking it in permanently? What was unthinkable a year ago is now the new baseline.
1/
July 28, 2025 at 8:56 AM
Europe negotiated the EU-US deal from weakness—and it shows.
The 15% tariff was already the de facto rate for the past few months (10% Liberation Day tariffs + ~5% MFN). It beats 25% on key sectors.
But locking it in permanently? What was unthinkable a year ago is now the new baseline.
1/
The 15% tariff was already the de facto rate for the past few months (10% Liberation Day tariffs + ~5% MFN). It beats 25% on key sectors.
But locking it in permanently? What was unthinkable a year ago is now the new baseline.
1/
Reposted by Andrei Sterescu
I think European leaders - both national and in the EU - are underestimating what it will do to their publics to be humilated by Trump.
Like the NATO summit and Rutte's 'Daddy' strategy, mabye the outcome could have been worse. But losing pride and being humilated is also a price that is paid.
Like the NATO summit and Rutte's 'Daddy' strategy, mabye the outcome could have been worse. But losing pride and being humilated is also a price that is paid.
My latest on the spectacularly one-sided EU-US trade deal.
Europe's Surrender
Thoughts on a spectacularly one-sided trade deal between the EU and US
open.substack.com
July 28, 2025 at 8:55 AM
I think European leaders - both national and in the EU - are underestimating what it will do to their publics to be humilated by Trump.
Like the NATO summit and Rutte's 'Daddy' strategy, mabye the outcome could have been worse. But losing pride and being humilated is also a price that is paid.
Like the NATO summit and Rutte's 'Daddy' strategy, mabye the outcome could have been worse. But losing pride and being humilated is also a price that is paid.
The trade “deal” with the US is a missed opportunity for the EU to leverage the full extent of the regulatory and institutional capacity it has built in the past few years to exert economic influence on the world stage.
July 28, 2025 at 8:24 AM
The trade “deal” with the US is a missed opportunity for the EU to leverage the full extent of the regulatory and institutional capacity it has built in the past few years to exert economic influence on the world stage.
Ha-Joon Chang argues we need a more nuanced approach and to understand the economy not from a purely economic point of view, but also from political, social and psychological perspectives. #econ
on.ft.com/4lLyt35 Economics teaching has become the Aeroflot of ideas
on.ft.com/4lLyt35 Economics teaching has become the Aeroflot of ideas
Economics teaching has become the Aeroflot of ideas
The discipline is failing students by ignoring the biggest social, political and ecological challenges facing the world today
on.ft.com
July 25, 2025 at 10:00 AM
Ha-Joon Chang argues we need a more nuanced approach and to understand the economy not from a purely economic point of view, but also from political, social and psychological perspectives. #econ
on.ft.com/4lLyt35 Economics teaching has become the Aeroflot of ideas
on.ft.com/4lLyt35 Economics teaching has become the Aeroflot of ideas
Reposted by Andrei Sterescu
Global current account balances widened in 2024, reversing a narrowing trend. Our latest External Sector Report finds that 2/3 of this widening is excessive—driven by macroeconomic imbalances in China, the US, and the euro area. Read the full report a imf.org/en/Publicati...
July 22, 2025 at 5:37 PM
Global current account balances widened in 2024, reversing a narrowing trend. Our latest External Sector Report finds that 2/3 of this widening is excessive—driven by macroeconomic imbalances in China, the US, and the euro area. Read the full report a imf.org/en/Publicati...
Reposted by Andrei Sterescu
The Commission proposal for the next long-term EU budget aka MFF just dropped. Its overall volume increases very moderately, but the proposal contains sweeping changes to the way the EU spends money and to budget's priorities.
Here is my first quick take:
Here is my first quick take:
July 16, 2025 at 3:24 PM
The Commission proposal for the next long-term EU budget aka MFF just dropped. Its overall volume increases very moderately, but the proposal contains sweeping changes to the way the EU spends money and to budget's priorities.
Here is my first quick take:
Here is my first quick take:
Reposted by Andrei Sterescu
This is such an important contribution to our thinking about the EU’s future. I highly recommend it.
Congrats @manuelamoschella.bsky.social & Luca Quaglia!
Congrats @manuelamoschella.bsky.social & Luca Quaglia!
📘🇪🇺 Much more than a report
In our new @jcms-eu.bsky.social piece, Lucia Quaglia and I argue that the Draghi and Letta reports go beyond competitiveness - they mark a shift in the EU’s political identity. But this entails huge challenges!
Open access here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
In our new @jcms-eu.bsky.social piece, Lucia Quaglia and I argue that the Draghi and Letta reports go beyond competitiveness - they mark a shift in the EU’s political identity. But this entails huge challenges!
Open access here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
Much More Than a Report: The Search for Europe's New Political Identity and the Politics of Competitiveness
Click on the article title to read more.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
July 16, 2025 at 12:54 PM
This is such an important contribution to our thinking about the EU’s future. I highly recommend it.
Congrats @manuelamoschella.bsky.social & Luca Quaglia!
Congrats @manuelamoschella.bsky.social & Luca Quaglia!
Pistorius’s rejection of Eurobonds reprises one of the oldest refrains in the EU fiscal debate - that joint borrowing creates moral hazard whereby risk-sharing weakens incentives to reform. By refusing to share borrowing costs, he is preserving “homework” incentives for national governments.
July 14, 2025 at 8:54 AM
Pistorius’s rejection of Eurobonds reprises one of the oldest refrains in the EU fiscal debate - that joint borrowing creates moral hazard whereby risk-sharing weakens incentives to reform. By refusing to share borrowing costs, he is preserving “homework” incentives for national governments.
Reposted by Andrei Sterescu
1/2
Very good essay by Gillian Tett. At the beginning of every semester I tell my PKU students that they are lucky enough (or unlucky enough) to be studying at a time, like in the 1930 or 1970s, when the world is undergoing a major shift...
www.ft.com/content/762c...
Very good essay by Gillian Tett. At the beginning of every semester I tell my PKU students that they are lucky enough (or unlucky enough) to be studying at a time, like in the 1930 or 1970s, when the world is undergoing a major shift...
www.ft.com/content/762c...
The new age of geoeconomics
Donald Trump’s tariff threats are just part of a much wider shift. Gillian Tett explains why commerce is being subordinated to statecraft — and how we can adapt
www.ft.com
July 12, 2025 at 5:17 AM
1/2
Very good essay by Gillian Tett. At the beginning of every semester I tell my PKU students that they are lucky enough (or unlucky enough) to be studying at a time, like in the 1930 or 1970s, when the world is undergoing a major shift...
www.ft.com/content/762c...
Very good essay by Gillian Tett. At the beginning of every semester I tell my PKU students that they are lucky enough (or unlucky enough) to be studying at a time, like in the 1930 or 1970s, when the world is undergoing a major shift...
www.ft.com/content/762c...
Reposted by Andrei Sterescu
Nice idea in principle, but dont fool yourself:
All you’ll be doing is to shift the insurance against such events from the public budget to the creditors - who’ll charge you a premium (which will be excessive because of the uncertainty).
All you’ll be doing is to shift the insurance against such events from the public budget to the creditors - who’ll charge you a premium (which will be excessive because of the uncertainty).
At #FFD4 in Seville, we joined Spain to launch the Debt Pause Clause Alliance, with the support of other governments & multilateral development banks.
The initiative will help countries suspend debt payments during crises such as disasters or pandemics⤵️
bit.ly/DebtPauseCla...
The initiative will help countries suspend debt payments during crises such as disasters or pandemics⤵️
bit.ly/DebtPauseCla...
July 3, 2025 at 11:30 AM
Nice idea in principle, but dont fool yourself:
All you’ll be doing is to shift the insurance against such events from the public budget to the creditors - who’ll charge you a premium (which will be excessive because of the uncertainty).
All you’ll be doing is to shift the insurance against such events from the public budget to the creditors - who’ll charge you a premium (which will be excessive because of the uncertainty).
Reposted by Andrei Sterescu
Other EU member states absorb only about a quarter of the exports of European firms
• Data show how open EU economies are; trade flows represent 55% of EU GDP (vs. 25% of US's a 37% of China's)
• Data also highlight how deepening the Single Market could help to support EU firms amid US tariffs
• Data show how open EU economies are; trade flows represent 55% of EU GDP (vs. 25% of US's a 37% of China's)
• Data also highlight how deepening the Single Market could help to support EU firms amid US tariffs
July 2, 2025 at 3:04 PM
Other EU member states absorb only about a quarter of the exports of European firms
• Data show how open EU economies are; trade flows represent 55% of EU GDP (vs. 25% of US's a 37% of China's)
• Data also highlight how deepening the Single Market could help to support EU firms amid US tariffs
• Data show how open EU economies are; trade flows represent 55% of EU GDP (vs. 25% of US's a 37% of China's)
• Data also highlight how deepening the Single Market could help to support EU firms amid US tariffs