Andrei Sterescu
@andreisterescu.bsky.social
Economist @ec.europa.eu ECFIN | Formerly @ecb.europa.eu | European 🇪🇺 and International Economic Policy | Views are my own and do not represent those of my employer
On 26 October, US and Malaysia signed a legally binding so-called Agreement on Reciprocal Trade, which is not a broad FTA but a package on tariffs and general rules with an unusually muscular Economic and National Security chapter. A thread 🧵 on #geoeconomics
October 28, 2025 at 12:16 PM
On 26 October, US and Malaysia signed a legally binding so-called Agreement on Reciprocal Trade, which is not a broad FTA but a package on tariffs and general rules with an unusually muscular Economic and National Security chapter. A thread 🧵 on #geoeconomics
A new IMF study shows trade surpluses tend to raise incomes in surplus countries and lower them in deficit countries.
doi.org/10.5089/9798...
doi.org/10.5089/9798...
September 28, 2025 at 10:55 AM
A new IMF study shows trade surpluses tend to raise incomes in surplus countries and lower them in deficit countries.
doi.org/10.5089/9798...
doi.org/10.5089/9798...
The trade “deal” with the US is a missed opportunity for the EU to leverage the full extent of the regulatory and institutional capacity it has built in the past few years to exert economic influence on the world stage.
July 28, 2025 at 8:24 AM
The trade “deal” with the US is a missed opportunity for the EU to leverage the full extent of the regulatory and institutional capacity it has built in the past few years to exert economic influence on the world stage.
Pistorius’s wording is a restaging of the narrative that emerged during the eurozone crisis framing the crisis as one of Southern profligacy vs. Northern thrift. This morality tale framed proposals for pooled borrowing as an act that encouraged profligacy and sidelined systemic solutions.
July 14, 2025 at 8:54 AM
Pistorius’s wording is a restaging of the narrative that emerged during the eurozone crisis framing the crisis as one of Southern profligacy vs. Northern thrift. This morality tale framed proposals for pooled borrowing as an act that encouraged profligacy and sidelined systemic solutions.
Pistorius’s rejection of Eurobonds reprises one of the oldest refrains in the EU fiscal debate - that joint borrowing creates moral hazard whereby risk-sharing weakens incentives to reform. By refusing to share borrowing costs, he is preserving “homework” incentives for national governments.
July 14, 2025 at 8:54 AM
Pistorius’s rejection of Eurobonds reprises one of the oldest refrains in the EU fiscal debate - that joint borrowing creates moral hazard whereby risk-sharing weakens incentives to reform. By refusing to share borrowing costs, he is preserving “homework” incentives for national governments.
So the credit risk premium to hold periphery Eurozone debt has shrunk, in good part from the top. At the same time, Italy has been taking steps towards a more prudent fiscal policy, Greece regained an investment grade in 2023, and Spain was the fastest growing Eurozone economy in 2024.
June 17, 2025 at 1:39 PM
So the credit risk premium to hold periphery Eurozone debt has shrunk, in good part from the top. At the same time, Italy has been taking steps towards a more prudent fiscal policy, Greece regained an investment grade in 2023, and Spain was the fastest growing Eurozone economy in 2024.
The @ecb.europa.eu released its 2025 International Role of the Euro Report. A big development in 2024 was the sharp rise in international issuance of euro-denominated debt and loans, which surged by over 40% to the level since the global financial crisis.
www.ecb.europa.eu/press/other-...
www.ecb.europa.eu/press/other-...
June 11, 2025 at 4:27 PM
The @ecb.europa.eu released its 2025 International Role of the Euro Report. A big development in 2024 was the sharp rise in international issuance of euro-denominated debt and loans, which surged by over 40% to the level since the global financial crisis.
www.ecb.europa.eu/press/other-...
www.ecb.europa.eu/press/other-...
🇷🇴 Romania deficit: Today, the Commission recommended to the Council to adopt a decision that establishes no effective action has been taken by Romania to correct its excessive deficit. This is the first country for which the EDP is being stepped up under the new economic governance framework.
June 4, 2025 at 2:02 PM
🇷🇴 Romania deficit: Today, the Commission recommended to the Council to adopt a decision that establishes no effective action has been taken by Romania to correct its excessive deficit. This is the first country for which the EDP is being stepped up under the new economic governance framework.
Not only. In the first round, GDP per capita and related measures were stronger predictors, alongside education.
May 20, 2025 at 8:09 AM
Not only. In the first round, GDP per capita and related measures were stronger predictors, alongside education.
#Romania election results thread: Dan (Liberal/ Independent) won the Romanian presidential election with a big lead domestically. Even though the diaspora vote had favoured Simion, it wasn’t sufficient to swing the results.
May 19, 2025 at 12:07 AM
#Romania election results thread: Dan (Liberal/ Independent) won the Romanian presidential election with a big lead domestically. Even though the diaspora vote had favoured Simion, it wasn’t sufficient to swing the results.
I didn’t want to jump the gun, but it’s now safe to say #Romania dodged a massive bullet. Today, Romanians chose Europe, chose freedom, and change for the better. In a moment filled with anger, fear, and fatigue, we didn’t let our darker nature define us. 🇷🇴 🇪🇺
May 18, 2025 at 9:00 PM
I didn’t want to jump the gun, but it’s now safe to say #Romania dodged a massive bullet. Today, Romanians chose Europe, chose freedom, and change for the better. In a moment filled with anger, fear, and fatigue, we didn’t let our darker nature define us. 🇷🇴 🇪🇺
At the sectoral level, manufacturing production is the biggest “import leaker”. Boosting industrial output, especially in industries rubber, plastics and base metals, as well as well as motor vehicles and electronics, brings more imports than service-oriented and domestically anchored sectors.
May 14, 2025 at 4:21 PM
At the sectoral level, manufacturing production is the biggest “import leaker”. Boosting industrial output, especially in industries rubber, plastics and base metals, as well as well as motor vehicles and electronics, brings more imports than service-oriented and domestically anchored sectors.
Import dependence varies across final demand categories, with investment and household consumption showing the highest reliance on foreign inputs as a share of expenditures. This import-dependence creates a situation where a surge in domestic demand tends to “leak” abroad via imports.
May 14, 2025 at 4:16 PM
Import dependence varies across final demand categories, with investment and household consumption showing the highest reliance on foreign inputs as a share of expenditures. This import-dependence creates a situation where a surge in domestic demand tends to “leak” abroad via imports.
The input–output analysis shows that a significant share of household consumption originates from imports. Likewise, investment in RO also relies heavily on imported machinery, equipment, materials, etc.. Deeper integration into GVCs means even exports now embody more foreign inputs.
May 14, 2025 at 4:16 PM
The input–output analysis shows that a significant share of household consumption originates from imports. Likewise, investment in RO also relies heavily on imported machinery, equipment, materials, etc.. Deeper integration into GVCs means even exports now embody more foreign inputs.
Since 2015, RO went from a net exporter of consumer goods to net importer of both consumption and intermediate goods. Intermediate goods still form the largest part of the trade deficit. Growing reliance on foreign inputs + strong domestic demand explains the trade shortfall and current account gap.
May 14, 2025 at 4:16 PM
Since 2015, RO went from a net exporter of consumer goods to net importer of both consumption and intermediate goods. Intermediate goods still form the largest part of the trade deficit. Growing reliance on foreign inputs + strong domestic demand explains the trade shortfall and current account gap.
Romania has persistently run trade and current account deficits over the past decade, with a notable worsening in the late 2010s. After the GFC, external deficits narrowed significantly but subsequently started deteriorating since 2015 and especially since the COVID-19 pandemic.
May 14, 2025 at 4:16 PM
Romania has persistently run trade and current account deficits over the past decade, with a notable worsening in the late 2010s. After the GFC, external deficits narrowed significantly but subsequently started deteriorating since 2015 and especially since the COVID-19 pandemic.
Finally, there isn't just a “rural versus urban,” but a contrast between large urban areas, provincial regional hubs and small towns and villages. Far-right support is weaker among denser urban centers, stronger in the mostly rural environments, with mid-sized towns falling in between.
May 6, 2025 at 9:20 AM
Finally, there isn't just a “rural versus urban,” but a contrast between large urban areas, provincial regional hubs and small towns and villages. Far-right support is weaker among denser urban centers, stronger in the mostly rural environments, with mid-sized towns falling in between.
🇷🇴 elections crisis: The structural drivers of the far-right vote in Romania seem rooted in geographies of discontent, regions where people feel left behind by growth and lack opportunities. Counties that lag behind in economic performance consistently register higher shares of far-right support.
May 6, 2025 at 9:20 AM
🇷🇴 elections crisis: The structural drivers of the far-right vote in Romania seem rooted in geographies of discontent, regions where people feel left behind by growth and lack opportunities. Counties that lag behind in economic performance consistently register higher shares of far-right support.
🇷🇴 Election crisis: Romania’s Social Democrats (PSD/ S&D) have withdrawn from the governing coalition after the joint candidate of the Social Democrats, National Liberals and the Hungarian minority failed to advance to the second round of the presidential elections, sparking a political crisis.
May 5, 2025 at 10:37 PM
🇷🇴 Election crisis: Romania’s Social Democrats (PSD/ S&D) have withdrawn from the governing coalition after the joint candidate of the Social Democrats, National Liberals and the Hungarian minority failed to advance to the second round of the presidential elections, sparking a political crisis.
Michel Aglietta died earlier this week. He spent his career thinking about economic growth and monetary theory over the long run and argued that economies are not just markets, but networks of rules, institutions, and social relations that shape how production, consumption, and accumulation happen.
April 29, 2025 at 9:09 PM
Michel Aglietta died earlier this week. He spent his career thinking about economic growth and monetary theory over the long run and argued that economies are not just markets, but networks of rules, institutions, and social relations that shape how production, consumption, and accumulation happen.
Tariffs won’t bring manufacturing jobs back. They might help protect existing manufacturing temporarily and re-shoring some of it, but are unlikely to reverse the structural decline in manufacturing jobs. Declining manufacturing employment is not a problem per se, but a symptom of multiple things.
April 3, 2025 at 10:24 AM
Tariffs won’t bring manufacturing jobs back. They might help protect existing manufacturing temporarily and re-shoring some of it, but are unlikely to reverse the structural decline in manufacturing jobs. Declining manufacturing employment is not a problem per se, but a symptom of multiple things.
You always hear claims that EU institutions are excessively staffed and bureaucratic, but that isn't supported by the actual employment figures. All EU institutions and agencies employ approx. 80k people to serve 449 million people. That's quite modest when compared with national administrations.
April 1, 2025 at 3:49 PM
You always hear claims that EU institutions are excessively staffed and bureaucratic, but that isn't supported by the actual employment figures. All EU institutions and agencies employ approx. 80k people to serve 449 million people. That's quite modest when compared with national administrations.
Spiegel writes that by now Europeans should have realised that they are alone. The EU needs to brace for an end of the US defence shield. This means boosting national military spending and coming up with new financial mechanisms to fund joint projects.
February 21, 2025 at 11:31 AM
Spiegel writes that by now Europeans should have realised that they are alone. The EU needs to brace for an end of the US defence shield. This means boosting national military spending and coming up with new financial mechanisms to fund joint projects.
The Trump administration is actively intervening in EU politics to bolster the far right and reshape its political landscape in alignment with a nationalist, “anti-globalist” agenda. In Romania, the US has been pushing to allow far-right candidate Călin Georgescu to remain in the presidential race.
February 19, 2025 at 9:44 AM
The Trump administration is actively intervening in EU politics to bolster the far right and reshape its political landscape in alignment with a nationalist, “anti-globalist” agenda. In Romania, the US has been pushing to allow far-right candidate Călin Georgescu to remain in the presidential race.